Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – June 1st, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! I can’t go the full hour+ today as I have an appointment, but let’s enjoy our 40 or so mins. together on the first day of June!

Rachel: Paul, when do we expect Royce Lewis back and full time SS? Also why no padding behind that wall? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: No idea why some walls aren’t cushier, never made much sense to me. I think something needs to open up for him to get back up for a bigger role or they need to give up on Nick Gordon as a starter

bart johnson: luis garcia or royce lewis in a re-draft?

Paul Sporer: Big Lewis fan, but I think we gotta go with the guy who is up in re-draft. Garcia is a legit prospect (well he has graduated in terms of prospect lists, but he’s just 22) and raking at AAA. I’m keeping a close eye on him

RTJ: How do you feel about Vinnie Pasquantino making any MLB impact this year?

Paul Sporer: Love Vinnie P, wrote him up yesterday in fact! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/boxscore-bits-may-31st-2022/

CT: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. Franmil is a pretty clear cut in 12tm roto, right? Obviously injured now, but putrid beforehand (bad xStats, near 40% K rate). You think he can turn it around at all when he returns?

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out and yes he is. Even when healthy, I don’t think we must pick him back up. Surprised he fell apart. I thought he was steadier than a Sano-type, but the Ks soared and made him just another copy of that profile

Sum: 10 team points with upside guys always hanging around the wire … you taking Luis Castillo or Roansy ROS? 1/2 games at GBA have me second guessing.

Paul Sporer: I hear you re: Great American for Luis Castillo, but he should be rostered in a 10. When cooking, he is a matchup proof must-start. Now he’s not always in that form, but too good to be on a wire IMO

CT: Provided the other team agrees, would you trade Juan Soto & Rowdy Tellez for their Freddie Freeman & Nick Castellanos? (other team vastly overvalues Soto, if that’s possible)

Paul Sporer: Yes I’d be good w/that

Mike: Who is my drop in 10 team redraft: javy baez, pham, or cronenworth?

Paul Sporer: Gah!! Soft ass Pham would probably slap you for cutting him but I just wanted to shoehorn that joke in bc Croney is the cut in a 10er. Bummer bc I love the guy, but he’s just not doing enough to merit a spot in leagues that shallow. He might be a 12-team cut, too, tbh

dave k: So my team is overachieving significantly, should I hope the streak continues or start making moves to better prepare myself for next season? Significantly means every AVG OBP SLG I am in the bottom 5 of 12 but have won 75% of the h2h matchups. I’m currently in 6th (last week was 4th but it was a close but bad week lost 9-3 but 4 categories were by 1 or 2)

Paul Sporer: Wait, why prepare for next season? Make moves to solidify yourself for this season. Leverage your banked wins bc no one can take ’em from you and better the club you have right now to turn them from overachievers into a legit club

Jj: Hearing anything on muncy’s timetable?

Paul Sporer: I have not

toottoot: Is bobby dalbec about to take off? plate discipline numbers looking good. would you drop hays to stash him in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: If they just keep feeding him PT, I imagine he will catch a heater eventually, but he’s just a standard all-or-nothing power hitter. His pwr has been light this yr due in large part to an 8% HR/FB rate so that should regress, but I still don’t like this player profile bc the cold snaps are so brutal.

Rays Guy: What are your thoughts on Drew Rasmussen?  I have added and dropped him in multiple leagues, and can’t get a firm idea if we are seeing a guy that can be a solid top 40 arm, or somebody who is going to end up being a streamer in many leagues.  His underlying numbers are mixed.

Paul Sporer: I think he is a firm start virtually every week, but there are scenarios where I’m sitting him in 10s and 12s. I probably wouldn’t have a staff deep enough to sit him in a 15 in most cases, though. But he is a clear 5-and-dive guy as the Rays don’t seem at all interested in expanding him beyond that. That makes his margin for error very tight as a couple first inning runs can really sink a start as he is almost never going to go six or seven to outrun a bad inning like more reliable guys can.

Ryan: Who wins this deal in a 30 team league: Julio Rodriguez for Robert Hassell, Zac Veen and Sixto Sanchez?

Paul Sporer: Right now, definitely the JRod side. But even if I’m rebuilding, I don’t think I’d move JRod for that package. JRod is the winner here in all scenarios for me

Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you think Strider and Roansy can become viable (SPs you want to roster) in 10teamers pretty quickly? Love the upside, I just always struggle with how much to chase these type of guys in that shallow of a format

Paul Sporer: They can, but I’m not sure they will. Strider’s spot isn’t even guaranteed and Roansy will struggle for wins so even if his ratios are good, he might not be unquestionably 10-tm viable. The bar is high for 10s and these guys both have uncertain futures. The upside is rich, but they can be a pain to roster. I’m a sucker for these types, but I’ve been burned plenty

Nick: What do you foresee from Tylor Megill going forward?

Paul Sporer: All formats arm when healthy, the skills are there. Obviously that dud before the IL trip ruined all of his early good work this year, but he misses bats and has the stuff to be very good

James: Would you trade bregman for Valdez and O’Neil. 14 team dynasty

Paul Sporer: I’m not a huge TON fan, but I’m not averse to this if needs align

Scott TINSTAAP: Been playing a lot of OOTP Perfect Team, it’s great! Any suggestions on strategies for tournaments or Perfect Draft or resources that I can read to get some ideas on how to improve my teams?

Paul Sporer: I highly recommend their Discord for plenty of great info: https://discord.gg/2Szyn2Cg or even the Discord for my stream which has an OOTP channel and some very knowledgeable folks if you don’t want to wade through the depth of OOTP’s Discord. Mine is here: https://discord.gg/YgsqbUHj — Their forum – I know, a forum in 2022? But I promise it’s good – remains a v strong resource, too: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/

Drax: are you still holding strong om grandal? not much to like in his profile atm. you adverse to moving onto a melendez or sanchez in a 1 catcher h2h ops league?

Paul Sporer: I’m not averse to moving on in a 1-C lg, but I am personally holding strong. I think 5% HR/FB rate is doing most of the work in terms of holding his numbers down. If he had 5-6 more HRs – which is what his career HR/FB rate would’ve yielded by now – we’d be unconcerned

Bean: Mets fans: PLEASE stop thinking “Montas for Smith” is a real possibility. A’s don’t need an arbyear 2-of-4 (Super 2) DH who can’t hit. The only Athletic hitting worse than Smith is Pache.

Paul Sporer: Insane that they’d think you could get Montas for Smith lol

Kevin: Ashby or Kirby ROS?

Paul Sporer: I lean Kirby

Char’s a Star: For a guy like Josiah Gray, who seems to have a home run / flyball problem, would doing something as simple as adding a sinker he throws like 10-15% of the time help?  Probably not a total fix, but the fourseamer isn’t great, so mixing it up feels like it would help.  Is it easy for a guy to add a new fastball like that?  I would assume it’s easier than adding like a breaking or offspeed pitch, right?

Paul Sporer: It could def help, but learning a pitch and the ease or difficulty of it is always a player-to-player thing. We all learn differently so there is no hard-and-fast rule. The 4-seamer is absolutely the main culprit w/his HR issue at an 8% HR/PA rate but the slider’s 6% mark is pretty bad, too. It’s the 4th-highest slider HR rate among 58 pitchers with 150 thrown since last year. It would be interesting to see him develop a sinker, but it’s not out of the picture that overall command could be fixed absent a pitch change

Jim Leyland Palmer: These guys are all kind of similar types of OF. I like them all but can only roster so many non power or speed threats at once. Please rank them ROS (5×5 cats): Nimmo, Verdugo & Brantley

Paul Sporer: I’m a sucker for this type and find myself rostering multiple of them too often. Throw Benintendi in that group, too. I was mindful of limiting them this year as I often end up a bit power short in my drafts bc of this phenomenon. I’d rank them as you wrote them out with Beni sliding in behind Nimmo for context even though you don’t also have him

Char’s a Star: Eno’s model loves Tyler Wells, but the Ks haven’t showed up yet.  Think they tick up as the season goes on?

Paul Sporer: The 11% SwStr is definitely enough for more than a 15% K rate so I see more in the future. I’ve been impressed in the limited viewings I’ve had of Wells. He and Bradish have definitely garnered my attention with legit talent and of course that wonderful new pitcher setup in Camden

Guest: Is Trevor Rogers droppable in a 12-team mixed?

Paul Sporer: I’m down to bench him, but I just can’t do it yet! And btw, I know I owe y’all ranks. I haven’t forgotten despite the delay. They are still being worked and then I’ll have new ones every other week. It’ll probably replace a Boxscore Bits for that given day as the BBs take a good bit of time as I often watch clips or innings of games for many starters and all that. At any rate, I’m holding Rogers and I appreciate the patience re: updated SP ranks!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, gotta get going a bit early as I mentioned at the outset. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow morning at 9:30 am CT and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!