Paul Sporer’s Weekly Baseball Chat – June 15th, 2022 by Paul Sporer June 15, 2022 Transcript is below!! 1:04 Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! 1:04 Jim Leyland Palmer: Would you actively target Robbie Ray as a buy low? 1:04 Paul Sporer: Not really, no. I don’t know how low you’re getting him and I don’t see a MAJOR surge incoming 1:04 Justin: Do you see Matt Chapman as a decent buy low? 1:05 Paul Sporer: In the hopes that he can add some AVG you mean? I’m not averse to buying if you need power, but I wouldn’t hold out for any sort of AVG spike 1:05 seth: Buehler droppable in a 15-team, no-IL (but deep bench) league? 1:05 Paul Sporer: Yes. I’m cutting him across the board right now in redraft leagues where I don’t have an IL spot 1:05 Kevin: Is Salvy the best Royals catcher RoS? Doesn’t seem like a slam dunk to me. 1:05 Paul Sporer: Melendez is probably better behind the dish, but Salvy will still start more often at C 1:06 Jim Leyland Palmer: 5×5 categories, give Gonsolin for Correa? 1:06 Paul Sporer: That works! 1:06 Bruce in 2033: Okay to drop Jhoan Duran ? Saves only roto. Already own Diaz, Romano, JLopez, Houck & T.Scott. 1:08 Paul Sporer: Yeah, it seems like a 67/33 split with Pagan as the primary… wild to me that they’d trust a 2.0 HR/9 at closer but for now they are. Your situation makes Duran expendable. I know trading is hard but maybe see if you can package him first to a SVs-desperate team? Otherwise, cutting is OK 1:08 Rachel: Paul, do you think Duran stays up for good this time? This is his third stint! Thanks! 1:08 Paul Sporer: This is Jarren Duran… just to make sure it’s clear since I just did a Jhoan Duran Q 1:09 Paul Sporer: I don’t know that he sticks. He’s up for Arroyo going on COVID list so that could be a quick hitter again. I know Rob Refsnyder was raking in AAA, but I’m still not sure I’d have him on the roster over Duran 1:12 Kevin: I get Gleyber, he gets Christian Walker in my 12-team roto league, OPS instead of AVG. I need Gleyber’s 2B/SS eligibility but worried about his playing time. Seems like advanced metrics LOVE Walker this year. 1:13 Paul Sporer: I’m OK with this given your needs. Walker has been great w/the power going off and now the singles are starting to fall to push his AVG up, but a quality middle infielder is a fair return for him 1:13 Kevin: following up on Royals catchers, they both have C eligibility in ESPN and I own them both right now. Don’t really want to roster Melendez as an OF so I’m thinking about trading Salvy. 1:14 Paul Sporer: Yeah, NEVER use a C-elig. guy at a different position. Maybe a random week here or there bc your roster dictates, but it’s a negative value play to do it. So if you have both he & Salvy, shop one of em for sure 1:14 JB: Start Clay Holmes or 2 start Lance Lynn next week ? 🤔 1:14 Paul Sporer: How are your saves outside of Holmes? 1:14 Guest: 5×5 Roto Dynasty League. Who do you prefer long-term, Riley or Albies? Have Hayes at 3b and no long-term 2b options. 1:15 Paul Sporer: I’m not jumping off the Albies train. The injury sucks and he wasn’t playing well of late prior to it, but I still love him long-term as he’s just 25 yrs old 1:16 Eduardo: Awesome work, Paul. Just curious about your Alek Manoah ranking. I have a hard time coming up with 26 pitchers I’d rather have. What do you expect moving forward? 1:22 Paul Sporer: I’ve gotten multiple Qs about him. I love Manoah, I really do, but I’ve tried to separate my fandom from the fantasy because I don’t fully believe the results he’s posted so far. He clearly manages contact well with a .246 BABIP in each of his first two seasons, but it’s still REALLLLYYY hard to maintain a sub-.200 AVG, especially with a solid-not-elite K rate at 23%. I’m also not sure he has really improved his HRs from last yr as opposed to just had a fortunate 6% HR/FB rate. Corbin Burnes had a 6% last yr in an insane season and just 4 qualified arms were under 10%. So I see just an OK K%, AVG & HR rates likely headed up, and a devastatingly difficult division, all of which make me believe a good bit in the 3.62 SIERA more than the 1.67 ERA. I hope Manoah has arrived this year as a full on ace and I’ll gladly eat an L if he does bc like I said, I really love watching him pitch, but I see summer regression more into the mid-3s area from here forward. Still an easy Must Start, but not an unquestioned Ace. 1:22 lwomack58: Who would you rather keep Joc or Mancini. Thanks 1:26 Paul Sporer: Mancini. Joc’s been better thus far, but I think Joc will come back to earth a bit while Mancini can hold his 130 wRC+ level all yr and add some pwr as things heat up in Baltimore. His added playing time should also help w/R & RBI from here forward 1:26 Bo Knows: Why is Manaoh ranked so low? 1:27 Paul Sporer: I know I just answered this, but I’ll also just say, he’s not. This isn’t a ranking based on their performance to date. It’s about going forward. He’s not a 1.67 ERA true talent (no one is, of course) 1:27 sean: how many good starts from trevor rogers do you need to see to pick him back up? or is it just one with a great changeup? 1:27 Paul Sporer: I’d need at least 2 great changeup games and one would have to be against a quality opponent, too. I’m just not seeing it with him this year and will likely cut him in a 15 this wknd 1:27 Larry Jones: Harris Jr. Is starting to turn it on. Think he’s better than say…Winker Ros? 1:32 Paul Sporer: Starting to? He’s been good from the jump! Albeit, just 17 gms. I would take him over Winker bc he has more fantasy game-changing capability w/his spd. Winker’s AVG & pwr are both muted by his park change and I just don’t see much from him in the fantasy realm 1:32 seth: Torkelson still a good keeper, think he’ll be a top 5? 10? 1B next year? 1:33 Paul Sporer: Def still a great keeper. Maybe 10-12 next yr. Gotta see how this yr finishes before even coming close to projecting next yr 1:33 Joe: 5×5 categories, drop Heim for Melandez? 1:35 Paul Sporer: Ehh…. you can. But I don’t see much gain there. The playing time I guess since with Garver (on C19 list rn) & Huff around, but talent-wise, it’s not much different. 1:35 Isaac: Rendon running out of leash in 12 tm H2H league? 1:35 Paul Sporer: I’m fine cutting 1:35 Paul Sporer: I’m still holding in 15s until we get clarity on the wrist, but fine to cut in shallower formats 1:35 ElectrifyingMojo: Manoah ranking was laughable. 1:36 Paul Sporer: LOL. Y’all really overrate current performance THAT much when doing rankings? Yikes. 1:37 Paul Sporer: Like seriously, that’s a terrible take. Laughable? He’s ranked lower ROS by the The BAT & Steamer. You can disagree w/the rank, but calling it laughable is just absurd lol 1:37 Kyle: Thoughts on Gorman thus far? Would you consider dropping for Vaughn or Mountcastle? 1:39 Paul Sporer: I’d cut him for either, tbh. He has been fine and played out about as expected thus far – good pop, but lots of swing-and-miss. Mountcastle & Vaughn are both more developed and neither whiff as much while not giving back much in the pwr department. 1:39 Big Joey: You buying Castellanos for a really strong 2nd half? 1:40 Paul Sporer: Yeah, I think he will have a summer heater at some pt to get his season line back on track 1:40 Sean: who is my drop when oneil cruz returns? cronenworth, pham, arraez, india 1:40 Paul Sporer: How many tms? Probably Cruz himself, tbh. 1:41 Guest: Morel… coming back to earth? Would you drop for someone like LeMahieu, Walker or Harris II? 10-team h2h pts league 1:42 Paul Sporer: I could see him landing in the mid-to-high 700s OPS wise w/spd & some pop so this smoothing out is expected. The spd is probably enough to still hold in a 10, but I don’t mind playing the burn n churn gm and looking for the next hot hand. Any of who you mentioned works, with Harris being the best comp bc he has spd, too 1:42 Kevin: you see the athletic article on Arraez? He’s better than Kwan because he worked out his legs in the off-season with the help of Nelson Cruz. 1:43 Paul Sporer: LOL, I hadn’t seen that article, but it has yielded a whopping -9 pts of ISO 1:44 Danielectomy: Christian Bethencourt a sneaky valuable add? 1:45 Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s been going crazy w/4 HR & SB and at C, that’s GOLDDDDDDDDD 1:48 bob: do you like heaney or cobb more in a k/9 roto league? 1:49 Paul Sporer: I lean Heaney, but see little difference b/w ’em 1:49 Guest: Does Rodon have a shot to end up in the Aces tier if he rebounds from the recent rough patch? 1:49 Paul Sporer: Absolutely. I alllllmost kept him there 1:49 Sean: Would you sell judge high right now? Think his performance may dwindle after this upcoming arbitration case end of June with perhaps less motivation? 1:50 Paul Sporer: I don’t believe there is any motivation driving this. He is just a superstar, top of the scale talent. Health has been the only thing to slow him. You can sell high if you get a mint, but I’m inclined to just ride this out 1:51 Big Joey: Do either Ashby or Strider have a strong innings limit? Is either or both a candidate to not be starting in September? 1:56 Paul Sporer: They were both around 95 IP last yr so they can get to about 130 or so without MAJOR incident and there is a chance they could be comfortable to go 150 w/which wouldn’t require too much management. The bottom line is we never really know w/these things so don’t try to plan TOOO far ahead w/em and just enjoy the good work of the near term 1:56 Patty: Surprised on your rank of Sandoval – expectations he will decrease the WHIP? To your point in the article, ERA has to increase if this WHIP continues. I’m holding in a 10, but I’m not sure why at this point 1:58 Paul Sporer: While I do believe the ERA will regress if he doesn’t improve the WHIP, I’m still starting him every time out right. He does have a sub-3.00 ERA and the talent to improve from where he’s at right now. If he can wrangle the BB rate below 10% and get the Ks back up at 25% or better, I think we’ll see a more trustworthy Sandoval. I’m not entirely averse to benching him in shallower formats, but I can’t cut him anywhere 1:58 Adam: What to do about Gonsolin? Chances are high Dodgers limit his innings no? If you’re looking at the future, what are you looking to trade him for? 2:00 Paul Sporer: He’s 28, they don’t need to baby his IP. Not saying he gets 180, but 150 wouldn’t surprise me. They also don’t have their normal depth that made it easy to manage these types in previous years. As w/the Strider/Ashby Q, I’ll reiterate that I wouldn’t get too hung up trying to trade out from under IP restrictions. We just don’t know enough to make good decisions there and it’s better to play for the here & now w/pitchers bc they are SOOO volatile. Remember when Edward Cabrera was saving rotations nine minutes ago bc he beasted in Coors? Now he’s on the IL again 2:00 Tony: Can’t believe I’m asking this, but is Merrifield droppable in a 10 tm? If he’s not running, I don’t see any value with him. 2:02 Paul Sporer: He had a 4-hit gm on May 11th after dipping to .139 on the season and since then he’s hitting .287/.327/.420 w/3 HR & 4 SB (14/19 full season pace). I think he’s fine and could even be a lot better as the summer wears on. Not only would I not cut him, but I’d be inclined to buying low 2:02 Jasper: Manoah ranks 25th in SIERA, so the ranking is justified. 2:02 Paul Sporer: Some support! 2:02 Dave: Austin Hays has been pretty good so far this year… will he keep it up? 2:03 Paul Sporer: He’s been amazing! I’ve been super impressed. I think there will be some giveback on the AVG but I believe in him as a plus bat overall 2:05 Kevin: I ended up just trading for Bo bichette, but already have Story and Trea (with O’Neill Cruz coming) as well as Springer and Teoscar. Bo feels redundant here and I’m not thrilled with 3 guys from the same team. Should I be trying to move a blue jay? 2:05 Paul Sporer: You can likely get a really nice piece for a Jay so scout your team weaknesses and make a move! 2:06 Eduardo: Alek Thomas is dope. What say you? 2:07 Paul Sporer: Agree! Promoted him in my prospects piece in the spring https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2022-re-draft-top-27-dyna… 2:08 Kate: Kyle Stowers getting a cup of coffee this week while Santander is unavailable while the team is in Toronto. Does he need a trade to stick? Or can he find a starting / platoon role with the roster as-is? 2:09 Paul Sporer: Yes w/Ced-Hays-Santander-Mancinin in OF & DH, he needs a move or injury to stay. Intriguing power bat that would garner attention w/a real chance at PT 2:10 Prospector: Keep two for saves speculation in a 12-teamer? J.Duran, T.Houck, or C.Poche. 2:10 Paul Sporer: I’d ditch Poche. The other 2 have a real shot to take the role and run while Poche will likely never be more than a here & there kinda SVs guy 2:10 Guest: Sorry for the second question-is Bregman a drop in 12t for Hayes or Espinal? 2:11 Paul Sporer: No worries asking a 2nd Q!! And no I wouldn’t. Bregman has still been above avg despite a pretty meh output (109 wRC+) and bats 3rd everyday on a great team. I just can’t cut him at all 2:11 Foghorn: How about some love for Paul Goldschmidt…both in the fantasy space and real-game production the dudes been an absolute stud for a decade now and it still feels like people underrate or forget about him… 2:15 Paul Sporer: Fantasy baseball’s ageism at play! BTW, I like making jokes about fantasy baseball’s ageism, but obviously it’s rooted in the very real aging curve meaning you are often better off fading age. That said, there are exceptions and even as they identify themselves in their 30s, they continue to go at a discount for fear of a cliff drop and/or the fact that they only qualify at DH (Goldy, Rizzo, Papi, Cruz, etc…). Goldy just keeps getting it done and he’s been AMAZING this year!! 2:15 Woah Nellie Fox: Where would Heaney slot in your latest rankings if he were healthy? 2:16 Paul Sporer: Team Streamer right now with potential mobility if the early LAD skills are even close to real 2:16 Kevin: Opinions are all over the place on Cristian Javier. Eno Sarris had him at 18(!), Pitcher List has him at 64, you’ve got him right in the middle (45). Is there a chance the Astros might put him back in the bullpen down the stretch? 2:19 Paul Sporer: There is a chance with Odorizzi and McCullers working their way back, but even if he is moved back to the pen, I’m not cutting him. 2:19 Mart: Is Stathead the only place I can find how many times a team has been shutout? 2:19 Paul Sporer: I think so, yeah. Maybe Savant. 2:19 Who is your Save-ior?: Holmes is my only closer. Seranthony or Tanner Scott better bet? Could drop Jimenez and Keegan Thompson for both. 2:20 Paul Sporer: I say go for both. Hand could get the PHI job or at least keep Seranthony from running away with it, but I like the upside of both Dominguez and Scott 2:20 Jay Dawg: Winker for Snell, 5×5 OBP? 2:20 Paul Sporer: Prefer Snell, fair trade 2:20 Joe Jackson shoes: Desclafini, where does he slot in your rankings upon return? 2:20 Paul Sporer: Team Streamer 2:21 Don juan: What is the outlook for Jake Burger ROS? 2:23 Paul Sporer: Really depends on the playing time, but I really think he can be a 120 or better wRC+ hitter. If he has inconsistent playing time, it could be a pain for fantasy folks. We’ll have to see how they handle Burger/Moncada at 3B when Eloy returns 2:23 Salty: Counting Matt Carpenter as another mustachioed guy on a heater, can you get in touch with Javy Baez to see if he’s willing to start growing one? 2:23 Paul Sporer: that’s a wonderful idea! 2:23 Bill: do you like Mendick to take any bats away from Garcia and Harrison. Seems to do ok in limited ab’s 2:25 Paul Sporer: I think he could when Anderson returns. Mendick and Harrison feel kinda redundant once Anderson is back. 2:25 Nicklaus Gaut: On a scale of “Mt. Vesuvias exploding” to “Nickelback existing”, where would you slot your Alek Manoah ranking? ; ) 2:25 Paul Sporer: looooool 2:26 Brandon: Who in the 50+ range in the ranks would you say is the greatest upside play/most likely to be in the top 20 at EOY 2:27 Paul Sporer: Strider, Singer, Ashby, Greene 2:27 Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!