Justin Mason’s Top 50 First Basemen: 2/8/2021

Drafts are in full swing and now I am 10 drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for the first base position for 2021. I will post updates every 2-4 weeks as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.

Justin Mason’s Top 50 First Basemen
Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP Notes
1 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 14 Even COVID couldn’t slow him down.
2 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 17.18 There are questions about his shoulder, but if healthy he could be a steal.
3 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 33.63 Landing back in New York was the best case scenario.
4 Jose Abreu CWS 1B 41.84 The MVP is about as safe as you get.
5 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 60.53 Last year he was overrated, this year he is underrated.
6 Luke Voit NYY 1B 69.86 Health is the only concern, but if he stays on the field, he is a monster.
7 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B, 3B 102.78 Playoff performance makes me feel better about the disappointing 2020.
8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 56.49 Best shape of his life pics are getting people overly excited.
9 Alec Bohm PHI 1B, 3B 104.55 Perfect mix of upside and safe floor.
10 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 103.67 safe, unsexy player that just produces.
11 Matt Olson OAK 1B 97.24 A ton of power, but that batting average has a ton of risk.
12 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 101.86 No longer a stud, but a pretty safe floor.
13 Mike Moustakas CIN 1B, 2B 125.84 Moose should bounce back after a weird and disappointing 2020.
14 Josh Bell WAS 1B 155.08 Change of scenery is just what he needed.
15 Dominic Smith NYM 1B, OF 119.45 Concerns about playing time has me starting to fade him until we know there is a DH in the NL.
16 Eric Hosmer SD 1B 139.04 I actually buy a lot of the changes Hosmer made.
17 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 181.53 If he is ready to go to start the season, he will move up a lot.
18 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 198.88 Walker is an underrated asset.
19 Trey Mancini BAL 1B, OF 198.96 Hard to gauge after missing 2020 with cancer, but if he is the guy we saw in 2019, then he could be a steal.
20 Miguel Sano MIN 1B 198.78 Got to offset the average issues, but he is a power monster.
21 Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B 249.33 I don’t think the 2019 power is coming back, but I believe he will bounceback otherwise.
22 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 166.1 Mountcastle has hit at every stop.
23 Joey Votto CIN 1B 332.22 Bounced back in 2020, but I don’t think we ever see vintage Votto again.
24 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 190.53 Starting to worry a bit about playing time.
25 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, OF 241.9 I wonder if getting COVID was part of the reason he struggled in 2020.
26 Carlos Santana KC 1B 272.22 Is an accumulator that will play everyday.
27 Rowdy Tellez TOR 1B 247.22 Playing time is becoming an issue with all the talent they have.
28 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B 302.51 I think he is up somewhat quickly.
29 Jesus Aguilar MIA 1B 320.63 An underrated player you can get late.
30 Ryan McMahon COL 1B, 2B, 3B 251.96 Is he old enough for the Rockies to play him?
31 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B 311.43 He’s Sano like.
32 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 186.27 Until we know the DH is coming, he doesn’t have a place to play regularly.
33 Jeimer Candelario DET 1B, 3B 243.16 Going to hit fifth and should accumulate a decent enough stats to be usable.
36 Evan White SEA 1B 352.82 Debut was disappointing, but we shouldn’t write him off.
35 Tommy La Stella SF 1B, 2B 305.92 Might lead off in SF.
34 Nate Lowe TEX 1B 309.73 The #FreeNateLowe crowd may get disappointed if he can’t close the holes in his swing.
37 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B 327.14 Playing time is an issue unless the DH comes.
38 Colin Moran PIT 1B 402.22 Will play everyday in Pittsburgh, but that doesn’t mean a lot.
39 Garrett Cooper MIA 1B 358.22 Probably not an everyday player.
40 Brandon Belt SF 1B 336.16 May not be ready for Opening Day.
41 Josh Fuentes COL 1B 464.88 Penciled in as the first baseman, but I doubt he is an everyday player.
43 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 396.82 No longer a starter after the Kiké signing.
42 Ji-Man Choi TB 1B 501.31 Strong side platoon player the Rays seem to love.
44 C.J. Cron FA 1B 313.69 Needs to find a job.
45 Renato Nunez FA 1B 402.12 Like Cron, he needs to find a job. Could head overseas.
46 Mitch Moreland FA 1B 533.33 Moreland will land somewhere, but playing time will always be an issue.
47 Mike Brosseau TB 1B, 2B, 3B 421.57 Short-side platoon guy best for DFS.
48 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 645.35 Curtain call time.
49 Seth Brown OAK 1B 715.04 Could have some playing time with Krush gone.
50 Seth Beer ARZ 1B 669.31 Needs the DH in the NL more than any other player in baseball, but dude can mash.
ADP is from NFBC Draft Champions leagues since 1/1/21





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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dougiejones
Member
dougiejones

Why do you consider Goldy “No longer a stud”? He had a 142ops+ last year with absolutely no protection in the lineup. Completely changed his approach a the plate if you look at his plate discipline breakdowns.

southie
Member
southie

Last ‘year’? Last season was a small sample size shit show. Also the lineup protection fallacy has been mostly debunked.

tomerafan
Member
Member
tomerafan

231 PA’s isn’t too small a sample size to respect that he posted his highest walk rate in several years and his lowest K-rate ever. His power output decreased but his BABIP was in line with career norms. I think that results in a potential “next-phase” performance for a couple of years.

Having Arenado in the lineup will only help Goldy’s fantasy stats even if lineup protection is often overstated. If healthy, Goldy is still a .290 / .380 / .470 type hitter that puts up a +/- 130-135 wRC+. He’s still a top-8 1B performer especially with Muncy and LeMahieu more likely to play 2B for their fantasy teams than 1B.

Buhners Rocket Arm
Member
Member
Buhners Rocket Arm

I do think he’s good value where he’s ranked but he has some bad trends. 3 consecutive drops in .ISO and EV and will be 34. That’s a trend very difficult to reverse at his age. If he hits 30 HR ever again I’ll be surprised, and if the peripherals also aren’t there (his high avg or obp depending on your league, runs, lack of SB) then he quickly becomes a modest asset.

carter
Member
Member
carter

He had a good year last year, but I wouldn’t count on him to repeat. He is in the JDM bucket for me, I wouldn’t even consider him until many rounds after someone else has already drafted him.

Lanidrac
Member
Lanidrac

He won’t be 34 until September.

docgooden85
Member
Member
docgooden85

I tend to be lower than most on Goldschmidt on the theory that hitters who struggle with elite velocity will tend to have a swift decline in the modern era. That said, my info. on Goldschmidt is via my memory circa 2018, so I could be misremembering or things could have changed.