Justin Mason’s Top 50 First Basemen: 2/8/2021
Drafts are in full swing and now I am 10 drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for the first base position for 2021. I will post updates every 2-4 weeks as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.
Justin Mason’s Top 50 First Basemen
|1||Freddie Freeman||ATL||1B||14||Even COVID couldn’t slow him down.|
|2||Cody Bellinger||LAD||1B, OF||17.18||There are questions about his shoulder, but if healthy he could be a steal.|
|3||DJ LeMahieu||NYY||1B, 2B, 3B||33.63||Landing back in New York was the best case scenario.|
|4||Jose Abreu||CWS||1B||41.84||The MVP is about as safe as you get.|
|5||Pete Alonso||NYM||1B||60.53||Last year he was overrated, this year he is underrated.|
|6||Luke Voit||NYY||1B||69.86||Health is the only concern, but if he stays on the field, he is a monster.|
|7||Max Muncy||LAD||1B, 2B, 3B||102.78||Playoff performance makes me feel better about the disappointing 2020.|
|8||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||1B||56.49||Best shape of his life pics are getting people overly excited.|
|9||Alec Bohm||PHI||1B, 3B||104.55||Perfect mix of upside and safe floor.|
|10||Anthony Rizzo||CHC||1B||103.67||safe, unsexy player that just produces.|
|11||Matt Olson||OAK||1B||97.24||A ton of power, but that batting average has a ton of risk.|
|12||Paul Goldschmidt||STL||1B||101.86||No longer a stud, but a pretty safe floor.|
|13||Mike Moustakas||CIN||1B, 2B||125.84||Moose should bounce back after a weird and disappointing 2020.|
|14||Josh Bell||WAS||1B||155.08||Change of scenery is just what he needed.|
|15||Dominic Smith||NYM||1B, OF||119.45||Concerns about playing time has me starting to fade him until we know there is a DH in the NL.|
|16||Eric Hosmer||SD||1B||139.04||I actually buy a lot of the changes Hosmer made.|
|17||Rhys Hoskins||PHI||1B||181.53||If he is ready to go to start the season, he will move up a lot.|
|18||Christian Walker||ARZ||1B||198.88||Walker is an underrated asset.|
|19||Trey Mancini||BAL||1B, OF||198.96||Hard to gauge after missing 2020 with cancer, but if he is the guy we saw in 2019, then he could be a steal.|
|20||Miguel Sano||MIN||1B||198.78||Got to offset the average issues, but he is a power monster.|
|21||Yuli Gurriel||HOU||1B||249.33||I don’t think the 2019 power is coming back, but I believe he will bounceback otherwise.|
|22||Ryan Mountcastle||BAL||1B, OF||166.1||Mountcastle has hit at every stop.|
|23||Joey Votto||CIN||1B||332.22||Bounced back in 2020, but I don’t think we ever see vintage Votto again.|
|24||Jared Walsh||LAA||1B||190.53||Starting to worry a bit about playing time.|
|25||Hunter Dozier||KC||1B, OF||241.9||I wonder if getting COVID was part of the reason he struggled in 2020.|
|26||Carlos Santana||KC||1B||272.22||Is an accumulator that will play everyday.|
|27||Rowdy Tellez||TOR||1B||247.22||Playing time is becoming an issue with all the talent they have.|
|28||Andrew Vaughn||CWS||1B||302.51||I think he is up somewhat quickly.|
|29||Jesus Aguilar||MIA||1B||320.63||An underrated player you can get late.|
|30||Ryan McMahon||COL||1B, 2B, 3B||251.96||Is he old enough for the Rockies to play him?|
|31||Bobby Dalbec||BOS||1B||311.43||He’s Sano like.|
|32||Jake Cronenworth||SD||1B, 2B, SS||186.27||Until we know the DH is coming, he doesn’t have a place to play regularly.|
|33||Jeimer Candelario||DET||1B, 3B||243.16||Going to hit fifth and should accumulate a decent enough stats to be usable.|
|36||Evan White||SEA||1B||352.82||Debut was disappointing, but we shouldn’t write him off.|
|35||Tommy La Stella||SF||1B, 2B||305.92||Might lead off in SF.|
|34||Nate Lowe||TEX||1B||309.73||The #FreeNateLowe crowd may get disappointed if he can’t close the holes in his swing.|
|37||Wilmer Flores||SF||1B, 2B||327.14||Playing time is an issue unless the DH comes.|
|38||Colin Moran||PIT||1B||402.22||Will play everyday in Pittsburgh, but that doesn’t mean a lot.|
|39||Garrett Cooper||MIA||1B||358.22||Probably not an everyday player.|
|40||Brandon Belt||SF||1B||336.16||May not be ready for Opening Day.|
|41||Josh Fuentes||COL||1B||464.88||Penciled in as the first baseman, but I doubt he is an everyday player.|
|43||Michael Chavis||BOS||1B, 2B, OF||396.82||No longer a starter after the Kiké signing.|
|42||Ji-Man Choi||TB||1B||501.31||Strong side platoon player the Rays seem to love.|
|44||C.J. Cron||FA||1B||313.69||Needs to find a job.|
|45||Renato Nunez||FA||1B||402.12||Like Cron, he needs to find a job. Could head overseas.|
|46||Mitch Moreland||FA||1B||533.33||Moreland will land somewhere, but playing time will always be an issue.|
|47||Mike Brosseau||TB||1B, 2B, 3B||421.57||Short-side platoon guy best for DFS.|
|48||Albert Pujols||LAA||1B||645.35||Curtain call time.|
|49||Seth Brown||OAK||1B||715.04||Could have some playing time with Krush gone.|
|50||Seth Beer||ARZ||1B||669.31||Needs the DH in the NL more than any other player in baseball, but dude can mash.|
ADP is from NFBC Draft Champions leagues since 1/1/21
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Why do you consider Goldy “No longer a stud”? He had a 142ops+ last year with absolutely no protection in the lineup. Completely changed his approach a the plate if you look at his plate discipline breakdowns.
Last ‘year’? Last season was a small sample size shit show. Also the lineup protection fallacy has been mostly debunked.
231 PA’s isn’t too small a sample size to respect that he posted his highest walk rate in several years and his lowest K-rate ever. His power output decreased but his BABIP was in line with career norms. I think that results in a potential “next-phase” performance for a couple of years.
Having Arenado in the lineup will only help Goldy’s fantasy stats even if lineup protection is often overstated. If healthy, Goldy is still a .290 / .380 / .470 type hitter that puts up a +/- 130-135 wRC+. He’s still a top-8 1B performer especially with Muncy and LeMahieu more likely to play 2B for their fantasy teams than 1B.
I do think he’s good value where he’s ranked but he has some bad trends. 3 consecutive drops in .ISO and EV and will be 34. That’s a trend very difficult to reverse at his age. If he hits 30 HR ever again I’ll be surprised, and if the peripherals also aren’t there (his high avg or obp depending on your league, runs, lack of SB) then he quickly becomes a modest asset.
He had a good year last year, but I wouldn’t count on him to repeat. He is in the JDM bucket for me, I wouldn’t even consider him until many rounds after someone else has already drafted him.
He won’t be 34 until September.
I tend to be lower than most on Goldschmidt on the theory that hitters who struggle with elite velocity will tend to have a swift decline in the modern era. That said, my info. on Goldschmidt is via my memory circa 2018, so I could be misremembering or things could have changed.