Paul Sporer’s Second Half Starting Pitcher Rankings
It’s been too long since I’ve released an updated SP ranking here on the site. While I am updating them with regularity on our Patreon, I will make sure to have another couple of updates over the final 2+ months of the season here as well.
The blue bar represents the START of a new tier.
I generally don’t include IL’d guys, but I made an exception for Manoah because he should be back after essentially a minimum stay for a back contusion. He slipped in the dugout and hurt himself, but it looks like he could pitch this weekend or be in line for a 2-start next week.
I view these as 3-4 week rankings given the volatility of pitching and I think this second half will be among the most volatility with pitchers getting skipped and shut down for innings limits. I’m confident that Luis Garcia will be swapped with Cristian Javier in the Astros rotation, but it hasn’t happened yet and so we need to enjoy his excellence while we have it. Garcia’s true talent is probably Top 30, but the rug could be pulled out at any moment so I hedged a bit with his ranking.
The same goes for the Brewers studs, though at a higher level. If we didn’t have any inning concerns, they’d all slot a bit higher.
I’ll answer as many questions as I can in the comments so let me know what you think!
Was it a personal choice to leave Nola off?
“I generally don’t include IL’d guys”
He was on the IL when I made the list
even for COVID IL when the team has already outright said it was for contact tracing? Harsh and kind of pointless!
DeGrom is missing, too . . .
He’s now looking like a TJ casualty
I mean it’s possible, but latest reports have him probably throwing this week
That’s jargon for we don’t want to disclose TJ prior to Trade Deadline
MLBtoPDX is jargon for “I learned to speak in absolutes when talking about things I know jack squat about, because I learned how to communicate by listening to Jim Rome”.
Travis L, METS FAN I take it, good ol LM Yorker. Believe it or not, I know squat, I know a lot of squat. Unfortunately and unfortunately Sometimes people/fans/ignorant fans are blind to the truth and well… would rather stare at grass and dare it not to grow rather than just cut the grass . Usually when tightness in the forearm occurs it’s means TJ plain and simple. Of course Mets brass are going to be mum about extent of injury especially being Jake. So they give the good old cortisone shot and shut em down a couple weeks to re-evaluate than. Usually after those couple weeks and the re-evaluation the teams will finally admit defeat and announce the bad news. I’m not saying being optimistic is a bad thing but with injuries ya gotta plan for the worse and hope for the best.
I mean, he threw yesterday
Guys on the IL don’t get ranked
“I generally don’t include IL’d guys”
Sandy Alcantara so low because of low W potential and k rate is not impressive?
Is there a question? Yes he’s low because he doesn’t get run support. K rate is solid but without Wins can find Ks elsewhere. Think: Tyler McGill
Yep
Tylor Megill higher than Blake Snell, have to say no one saw that coming.
Snell doesn’t go long in his outings, his K rate is in decline, and not to mention the division and schedule for the rest of the year isn’t as promising as McGill. McGill with his K rate, decent leash on his innings, and favorable schedule and division definitely has higher probability for more points and or success
Yeah I didn’t either. I love Blake but he’s been really rough
My boi Kershaw is missing as well. :'(
Everyone, read the bit above the rankings – guys on the IL don’t get ranked except Paul made an exception for Manoah. Paul also noted in his chat today that he missed that Nola had come back and was left off by mistake
i also wondered about Nola……
Where is Aaron Nola?
It would be helpful if you would describe your methodology in the intro…
Is this for points leagues? category leagues? weekly? Wins? QS? Ks? K/9? Do you look at likely matchups (look at the schedule directly? consider league and division?) etc.
I guess I shouldn’t assume that everyone knows the standard but 5×5 Roto is the basis as it’s the most common format
We’ll have to get together at Rosati’s in Cedar Park and discuss these. Jake Ciely has Luis Castillo at like 95th and you have him 16th. You’re a lot more bullish on Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray as well. Interesting stuff. Thanks for having the stones to make decisions and publish them!
I’m not even that keen on Gibson, tbh. Surprised my ranking is seen as high. I could myself lowering him when he’s dealt since that home park is so huge for him
As a Trevor Rogers owner I am going to say that #12 ranking is too high. He is already getting short-started as the Marlins no doubt want to limit his innings this year. Great talent, sure, but not someone who will carry a fantasy team to a title in the last two months imo.
It seems weird to not include IL guys. Everyone playing fantasy has to factor in a SP pool that includes guys on the IL. Also, is this a 2nd half ranking as the title says, or a next 3-4 week ranking as the article says?
Why is it weird? I think it’s weirder to include them. There is so much uncertainty surrounding the vast majority of injuries that I don’t see the point in trying to assess their value w/guys who are actually contributing to a team.
All of my SP ranks are meant for a 3-4 wk period since things change and trying to lock rankings for periods longer than that is a fool’s errand, IMO. I’m not sure it’s necessary to get bogged in the semantics of the title on the chart v. me saying they’re for 3-4 wks.
True, there is a ton of uncertainty with those guys. But all Roto owners have to deal with that uncertainty. All roto owners have to assess those values.
And…they should on their own?
Ohtani is so good…
No Astudillo? He settled in after that Yermin homer game
appreciate the list very much AND would appreciate Nola assessments – he’s a tantalizing roto disaster and mostly it seems to be blasphemy to say as much in baseball circles. Bad luck? Too much in the zone? Other?
Smyly might be an unintentional omission… in the 80-90 range, perhaps.
I see where Touki’s fastball velocity averaged 92.3, seems low, any thoughts there?
Tanner Houk is way up there!
With innings as a concern for Milwaukee starters, it’s a bit interesting to see Ohtani as high as he is. He has to be the biggest innings concern in the league. Innings will likely be low for him all season, and a guy like Freddy Peralta has pitched far better than he has.