Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – Septemeber 16th, 2027

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all thanks for coming out! Can’t believe the season is almost over, feels like we just got going!

didge003: Hey Paul – thanks so much for all of your help this season. In the championship this week, H2H fairly standard scoring but W/L values are a little more extreme (+7.5 W, -5 L). I’ve got 6 SP slots left this week and Skubal going Sunday, can you rank who would be your remaining 5 based on the following options? Gore (@ BOS), Prielipp (@LAA), Cantillo (ATH), Detmers (MIN), Webb (@LAD – though rumored to maybe be done), Melton (@CWS), Lopez (@CLE), Alcantara (@SD). Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Ok so Detmers is a stone cold lock with Skubes. So 5 slots left and holy shit is this whole group besides those 2 strugglinggg of late. They all have 5.40 ERAs or higher over the L30 days, that’s crazy! I love Melton but he seems a bit gassed and yet I might still end with him. Webb is one up, one down patter over his L6 which isn’t bankable, but he is due for a goodie if it were to hold, but like you said could be done. Plus he gets LAD.

So I think I’d go with Prielipp, Sandy, Gore, ReyLo, and then Cantillo v. Melton for the last spot. Maybe just chase the W with Cantillo since ATH sucks and hope he gets an opener like he did his last time out. EDIT TO ADD: LEADERBOARD

dirtypuer: as the season wraps I just wanted to thank you for all of your thoughtful responses in this chat and help this year!

Paul Sporer: Happy to help! I really appreciate y’all coming out weekly for these, they truly don’t exist without y’all and I’m glad my opinion is valued enough to do these!

NicklePickers: The season is so long but so short!

Paul Sporer: Agreed! Because once I start thinking back on it, the length becomes clear. I just love the summer and baseball so much that I always lament its departure, even if I am a little burned out toward the end of it. And no Tigers playoffs to satiate me this year, either.

clydethedog: Picked up Leo Bernal to be a keeper next year (NL Only). Do you think he will stick as a lineup mainstay next year?

Paul Sporer: Yes I can’t remember who mentioned it to give credit, but a Cards fan commenter was adamant that he’s the dude going forward, not Crooks. Crooks is more of a solid backup whereas Bernal has the skills to pay the proverbial bills. So thanks to whoever put me on bc I did a further deep-dive and I’m now a big fan! Love him as an NL keeper for sure

NicklePickers: Desperate for wins and ratios in a league where I’ve hit my start limits. Would you pick a (hopeful) follower like Prielipp (@LAA), Fedde (@CLE, vs. DET) or Pecko (vs. KC) or just run with a middling middle reliever in that slot? (I would have to sit a starter if he got a regular start.)

Paul Sporer: Prielipp v. Fedde for me. Fedde’s been really sharp of late, but that Tigers offense is no joke so I’m nervous that they could drop some regression on him leaving me inclined to go Prielipp.

Dave: Hey, the Tigers are still technically alive!  11 more wins and we’re right back in this thing!

Paul Sporer: lololol

Paul Sporer: Imagine if we had an ace and solid mid-rotation arm… but where would you ever get those kinda players

Paul Sporer: Jokes aside, if Harris wasn’t going to ever fix the pen, then trading Skubes & Mize made a lot of sense. I just don’t understand why he didn’t attempt to improve the pen after the 6-22 May because despite that horrendous month, they weren’t dead after it but it was clear that this was never a playoff pen

Paul Sporer: /endrant

Ragbrai: Tatis worth $40 in a NL 5×5 next year? Olson $37?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Tatis truther. My patience was tested during his HR drought for sure, but he kept the fantasy production going w/the SBs until the HRs came around and now looking at the final-ish line, you’d never know he struggled so much. Is it either/or, or both? I’d go Tatis solo. Olson’s awesome, too, but at $37, I’d likely allocate elsewhere for my HR power as he turns 33 next yr

Honkus Wagner: for next year how are you ranking, Jeremy Pena, Perdomo, or Otto Lopez?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s a tight group. Lopez/Perdomo are very close. Perdomo’s BABIP lagged this year so Lopez was better, but v similar skillsets. I like that Pedromo takes walks, though, and he does so MUCH better than Lopez which gives his SB floor more stability going forward. Pena’s power gives him the top spot for me, followed by Perdomo, then Otto

Ragbrai: This was anotber fun. season. and thanks for your input.  Usually I look forward to the offseason, the chats, the prep work and all, but there is a cloud hanging over this offseason.

Paul Sporer: Yes, the looming lockout does add extra sadness to the season winding down

clydethedog: also, thank you for the chats! Looks like I will be taking home the championship this year (knock on wood) and have fangraphs to thank

Paul Sporer: Let’s gooo!!!!

Jon Tayler: Looking at keeper candidates for next year in an OBP roto league with a $260 budget, which four of these players would you hold onto? Wetherholt ($10), Cade Smith ($11), Luzardo ($20), McLean ($11), Jake McCarthy ($6), Otto Lopez ($6), Josue De Paula ($6), Rodon ($9), Alonso ($30)

Paul Sporer: Ooh fun group! Think I’m going JJ, Lizardman, McLean and then the 4th is tough but I think I lean toward Cade Smith. With so few ace closers left, he’s the aciest IMO so I think you run another year with him

Dave: Did we just witness Miguel Vargas’s peak season?  Or is there reason to expect more growth going forward?  Trying to figure out what his value as a keeper will be.

Paul Sporer: I’d rank myself quite high among the Vargas truthers but I still think the answer is a resounding yes. I don’t think he collapses next year but I’d be floored & pleasantly surprised if he somehow got even better. I’d project like 25/10 with solid R/RBI (bc I do think CHW will get better as a team). The AVG is tricky bc he looks like someone who should be able to raise his BABIP since it’s always below league average, but that comes from his approach as opposed to bad luck. As a heavy flyball guy, you’re just going to run lower BABIPs so I would keep his AVG projection in the .240s. That said, we’re in an era where that plays just fine.

dirtypuer: What player under or over performance taught you the most about how you’ll approach draft next year?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s a great question. Think I want to review oldheads a bit. I’ve watched so many great fantasy players win by just trusting track records so I incorporated that more into my game this year only to be really disappointed by Manny Machado and Trea Turner. I can’t use 2 samples to say they suck and move on especially bc I also had 34 y/o Willson Contreras on that same team and he was amazing. There were still 8 guys of 33+ who had at least a 125 wRC+ (min. 400 PA) which matches last (only 9 total in 2023-24) so maybe I just caught the shit end on a couple guys.

Dave: Max Clark… last couple of weeks have looked *pretty pretty* good…

Paul Sporer: So many bright spots for the team this year despite the failing bullpen holding them back! Clark is going to be a heavy riser in drafts this offseason and I’m really eager to see where he goes.

Domingo Ayala: I asked this to Ben Clemens as well, but I want to ask your opinion of this breakout list. There is some Christopher Morel risk with all of these: Colson Montgomery
Cam Smith
Crews
Bolte
Heriberto Hernandez

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. Big Colson fan myself but he’s terrifying with that swing and miss. Colson on that team with the vets I mentioned early so you’ll be very unsurprised to learn my AVG is pure shit. We’ve seen guys succeed with K%s approaching 30, but Colson is at 34% and when paired with a .264 BABIP, it leaves him very susceptible to a sub-Mendoza Line AVG

NicklePickers: I get that Antonacci isn’t as good versus lefties, but is he really Luisangel Acuna less good? Guy’s got a 39 wRC+ vs. lefties on the season…

Paul Sporer: I hear ya, but when both are meh, you take the platoon advantage I guess

maximus74: I lost in the playoffs because my bullpen scored -1 points in 9 appearances 🙁

Paul Sporer: OMG that’s a brutal!! The vagaries of H2H are what make it great and awful at the same time

Vogt your conscience: OF most likely to score a run tomorrow: Bolte, Langford, Mesa Jr.

Paul Sporer: Wil Vic get to start vL (Springs)? I’ll go Bolte

Salty: Just a quick thanks for the chats throughout the year.  A few weeks ago I had asked how you were doing in your leagues and you had mentioned you were live in some – if you still are, bring it home!!

Paul Sporer: My teams EVAPORATED!!!!

Paul Sporer: It’s been a nightmare. Main Event team has those AVG slags I’ve mentioned (Manny, Trea, Colson) plus Dingler running out gas while Harrison & Burke pumpkin’d and “led” the demise of my pitching in the Main Event — I was in 4th with a shot at a cash spot and now I’m in 10th & dead. My OC also has Colson, Burke, & Dingler and then damn near every streamer button I pushed failed (mistimed Jacob Lopez to a comical level)

canderson20: Mentioned this to Ben the other day and Justin as well, but a bit too late in his chat to answer it. How are you viewing Lawrence Butler going into next year from a fantasy standpoint? The first half was atrocious, the second half hasn’t been talked about enough in my opinion. Going from basically a -2 WAR player with a ~60 wRC+ back to even with an almost league average wRC+ is just a remarkable turnaround.

Paul Sporer: Players like that remind us just how long the season is for sure. I’m still going to chase Sacramento bats and he’ll be a cheaper avenue into their lineup as the season long line doesn’t jump off the page. And at age-26 next year, I wouldn’t rule out some improvement yielding a full season that looks more like the 2nd Half

co_southpaw: Would you start Jared Jones vs MIL and George Kirby @ LAA today? In the title match & trailing Ks & QS but protecting a pristine ERA & WHIP

Paul Sporer: Gimme Jones v. MIL off a clinch night in hopes that they rest some guys and those who do play are hungover. LAA isn’t scary but Kirby on the road definitely is. Their brutal defense has definitely stung him this year, though it’s weird how he’s still been good at home so maybe T-Mobile is so good to pitchers that even their awful defense can’t hurt him too much

Vogt your conscience: Thx for answering my extremely specific question. H2H playoffs, baby!

Paul Sporer: No prob, good luck!!!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll. I’m absolutely starved so I’m gonna get some lunch. If I missed your Q, you can post in the comments of this post and I’ll get to as many as I can later today. Good luck the rest of the way!!