Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 28th, 2022 by Paul Sporer September 28, 2022 Transcript is available! 1:01 Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! Just a week left in the regular season, can you believe it?! 1:01 Shifty manfred man: Hey Paul, 1:01 Paul Sporer: Hola! 1:02 MHII: How high are we taking Michael Harris next year? 2nd round? 1:04 Paul Sporer: He’s now a HR away from 20/20 and has only played 108 games! That said a .370 BABIP and 26% HR/FB rate are helping a lot and I worry that there won’t be any real regression assumed for him and he’ll go 2nd-3rd round pretty consistently. I love the talent and I’m a sucker power-speed, but I’ll probably fade the sky-high price for 2023 1:04 John: Pulled down a H2H Cats title this week. Looking to next year, who is most likely to be real for 2023 – Brandon Drury, Jose Miranda (late May on) or Justin Steele? 1:06 Paul Sporer: Miranda for me. I love what Drury did for us this year, but he was a product of batting #2 in Cincy (.915 OPS, 12 HR in Cincy). He was fine w/SD, but clearly a cut below. Curious to see where he signs and if he nets a starting role next year. I do like Steele, but I’ll definitely bet on Miranda over Steele right now 1:06 Shifty manfred man: please pick three to keep. All late rounders in a roto league: lodolo, o. Cruz, MJ Melendez, L Hendriks, j. McCarthy , a Vaughn. Thanks 1:08 Paul Sporer: Vaughn, Cruz, Melendez. I love Lodolo, but I gotta go w/the young hitters especially as Lodolo figures out his command. McCarthy is close and I could see going him over Melendez, but that’s a crowded OF (Varsho, Thomas, Carroll, McCarthy, Garrett) so his PT isn’t certain despite the brilliant 2H 1:08 keeper Q: Hey Paul – Keep 6 league and I’m wondering who you’d keep to fill out my 6. Keeping: Julio, Ohtani (Batter), Tucker. Other options for the final 3: Devers, Bregman, Corbin Carroll, Gerrit Cole. 1:09 Paul Sporer: I’d go Devers, Bregman, Cole to round it out. I like Carroll a lot, but it seems like all your keepers cost the same and in that case, I can’t justify an unproven Carroll over the established studs like Devers & Bregman 1:09 Kyle: Are you going to be doing weekly chats each week during the offseason? 1:10 Paul Sporer: October will be a downshift month, lighter article, pod, and chat workload, but then I’ll dialing it right back up in November. There may be occasional chat skips in the offseason due to holidays, travel, etc…, but they will be pretty regular again starting in November 1:10 Guest: How would you rank these young arms for next year…Kirby, Luzardo, Greene, Lodolo? 1:12 Paul Sporer: Kirby, Greene, Lodolo, Luzardo without much separation b/w the last 3 1:12 James: Hi, how do you see Mookie Betts value next year since he had a career power year? 1:14 Paul Sporer: Still a 1st rounder for me. A premium player on the best team in the league is always going to appeal to me. He will probably be more of a mid-1st rounder next year instead of late-1st/early-2nd, but I’m willing to pay the higher price 1:14 Kyle: I don’t consider it draft season until Justin is streaming himself in his freezing cold garage smoking a cig while he drafts a team. When do you consider it the start of draft season? 1:15 Paul Sporer: lololol, that’s a good indicator! Draft season starts up community-wide in February. I draft all offseason but I’m insane 1:18 Tyler Anderson: In a dynasty league, should I try to sell high this offseason or keep for next year? Also, how much should I factor whether he resigns with LAD into the equation? 1:19 Paul Sporer: Whether or not he’s in LAD is the ENTIRE decision for me tbh. Not that he’d forget everything they taught him if he left, but my interest only lies w/him being a Dodger 1:19 Moop: How are you feeling about Torkelson for 2023? 1:22 Paul Sporer: I’m gonna buy the dip. I think he will be dirtttt cheap and while I certainly can’t point to anything in his statline to get excited about, I refuse to quit him after just 380 PA. And it’s not just Tigers fandom, I’m not quitting any top prospect after such a scant sample 1:22 Guest: what do you see the odds of Degrom at any point becoming more bankable as far as staying healthy like scherzer and verlander going forward? 1:23 Paul Sporer: They seem pretty low. His arsenal includes the biggest injury factors: raw velo (100 mph fastball) and hard sliders (93 mph). While both pitches are great, they undoubtedly raise his injury potential 1:23 I Used to be Mel Clark: Which rookie eligible player do you keep for the next two years: Pasquantino, Donovan, Roansy, or Munoz? 1:24 Paul Sporer: Vinnie P! I do see Muñoz becoming a closer for Seattle, but I’ll still keep the hitter over a potential closer 1:24 Dave: How much confidence do you have in Alek Thomas in dynasty leagues? I’m torn between selling now while he still has his top prospect sheen and not wanting to cut bait too early. 1:27 Paul Sporer: I’m nowhere near out, but I do think it might be too much of a sell low to move him this offseason. I’m certainly open to shopping to see where the market’s at, but I suspect ppl will be trying to catch a discount based on the ’22 MLB output. My biggest concern for his fantasy value is the 61% SB rate in the minor and just 4-for-7 in the majors. 1:27 Ted: Yooooooooo this shit is too stressful! 1:28 Paul Sporer: Stretch run sweats are soooo stressful. My stress was reduced yesterday, though that’s bc I’m pretty Kyle Bradish ended my run prematurely 1:28 LJA: I am better than the league I play in. What do you suggest for a higher level of competition for someone who really doesn’t take a day off and plays with a definite competitive edge all season? I’d like a league that justifies the time I put into this every season. 1:29 Paul Sporer: I think it’s time for the NFBC! Remarkably competitive leagues throughout the space and many price points to get in at if you’re not trying to jump right to the Main Event: https://nfc.shgn.com/gamestyles/baseball 1:29 Ken: I’m curious, which player’s performance surprised you most this year, either for better or worse? 1:30 Paul Sporer: Texas 2-step: Martín Pérez holding up all year and Adolis García out-running his brutal plate skills for another gem of a season 1:32 D: What stats do you look at it the most when deciding which pitchers to start/stream? I know you have L30 ops with same handedness as a reference and Last 5 starts pitcher info, but the results are so all over the place 1:33 Paul Sporer: I lean heavily on core skills (K%, BB%, arsenal) and recent gamelogs. I still trust a track record way more than a L5 or matchup 1:33 Paul Sporer: brb – gotta let the dogs out 1:39 Ed: So where does Trout land on your draft board for ’23? 1:39 Paul Sporer: I’d still take him in the 2nd round 1:41 Guest: do you see the larger bases have a measurable negative effect on more well rounded 1st rounders? The Julio’s, kyles, and Ronald’s? 1:43 Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think. However, there will likely be a lot of chatter about J-Rod’s 4-for-6 2nd half in SBs after Seattle said they were going to slow him down. Was it just a 2H thing to keep him healthier (or try to, at least) or is he going to be more a 17-20 SB guy in future seasons? That’d still be great, but not quite the 30+ he felt like a lock for after 21 1H SBs 1:43 John: Baez had a nice September, we have seen big FA signings struggle out of the gate before, what do you think of a potential bounce-back with a price that will leave plenty of room for profit? 1:44 Paul Sporer: We discussed Baez on the latest pod yesterday – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1102-se… and while he will definitely be cheaper due to the ugly season, I’m still not sure I’m buying back in, especially given the depth of SS 1:44 Rob: Re: DeGrom, I’m basically in the camp that I’ll never own the guy because of the sky-high cost coupled with what basically seems to be a guaranteed injury (or four) every year. Is that a leak in my game? 1:45 Paul Sporer: Not necessarily, no. Build your roster to your strengths and if you’re not interested in managing around expected IL stints w/deGrom, it makes sense to pass on him. Especially since the injuries aren’t really going to offer much of a discount bc of how good he is when healthy 1:45 Kyle: Baddoo is only 28 HR and 24 SB away from hitting your preseason bold prediction of 30/30 — do you think he gets there? 1:45 Paul Sporer: Yes! 1:45 Baha Men: Wait, it was YOU? 1:46 Paul Sporer: Yes! I tried to tell y’all! 1:46 Jung Bong Jovi: Starting Webb and Darvish last week at Coors didn’t sink me. Couldn’t have asked for better results, really. And now I’m battling for a title. Thanks for all of your help Paul! 1:47 Paul Sporer: Let’s go!! Happy to have helped in any way at all and hope you bring it home!! 1:47 Broken bat: Does McCarthy and Carroll both start next year in snakes Of? 1:47 Paul Sporer: I thiiiink so. Seems McCarthy has leapfrogged Thomas 1:47 Tim: Are you a believer in Gio, Pablo and/or Berrios heading into next season? 1:51 Paul Sporer: Crazy thing about Berrios is that half his starts were still good, but the bad half were insanely bad, particularly the *9* where he allowed 5+ ER. I don’t think he’s THAT far from fixing his issues. Pablo Lopez has had a few really ugly outings in the 2H, but I don’t see him in the same class as Giolito & Berrios in terms of disappointment. Giolito fixed himself once (his transformation was all his own offseason work, not the Sox mgmt – though that was before Ethan Katz joined, too) so I think he can do it again. It will 100% come down to price w/him 1:51 Guest: Dropped Adolis early on because I didn’t believe he could keep it up with his terrible discipline. Comforted I’m not alone 1:53 Paul Sporer: He strikes me as a good process, bad result situation. I’m not letting his success change my outlook on guys with horrible plate skills. Even acknowledging that his elite defense was going to secure a good bit of PT, I didn’t see that as a HUGE positive bc I was worried he’d be really bad so I didn’t want MORE PA of bad performance 1:53 I Used to be Mel Clark: What round do you think Arozarena goes next year? 1:55 Paul Sporer: Not too much higher than last year (pick 50-65 range?) 1:55 Jeremy: Do you think next year we see some smaller market teams (COL, CIN, BAL, CHC, PIT) try to go after the big FA players? I know those teams don’t have a lot of money but who knows… 1:57 Paul Sporer: I think Baltimore should just continue following their Seattle ascent and sign a big arm a la the Robbie Ray move. I think Carlos Rodón would be a great fit for them w/the young arms that emerged this year plus Grayson Rodriguez & DL Hall carving out larger roles. COL might be gun shy after Bryant’s flop. Cincy & Pitt both have a ton of young talent, but both are prob a year away from really eyeing premium FA pieces 1:57 Andrew: Josh Jung has 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 28/2 strikeout to walk rate in 66 at bats to start out his major league career. How would you value him going into next season? 2:01 Paul Sporer: I’m a big Jung fan so I was bummed that he suffered such a major injury. I suspect this flurry is building some real hype and he’ll go just outside the top 10 3B… around pick 125-150 range? 2:01 Big Joey: Who would you rather keep for next season? Cole, Wheeler or Scherzer? 2:01 Paul Sporer: Still Gerrit Cole for me 2:01 Eno: Elly de la cruz draft price next year? 2:02 Paul Sporer: Will he be drafted? He had an amazing season at A+/AA, but he’s still 21 and has plenty of development to be done. Outside the top 300 in Draft & Holds 2:03 Zac: Is Varsho done catching? Still has eligibility for next year, but don’t want to be left hanging in a dynasty if he doesn’t catch the requisite 10 games next year. 2:04 Paul Sporer: Hard to say. A lot of us thought this year would be the last but then injury struck and he was needed back there. He was remarkable in the OF this year so I imagine their plan is to just keep him out there all year so if your plans are on him 100% being C, I wouldn’t plan beyond 2023 2:05 Big Joey: What’s your guess as to how many more 45+ HR seasons Judge has left in him? 2:05 Paul Sporer: 2 2:05 Papa Smurf: Bradish, Wesneski, Jameson, or Bello for 2023 2:10 Paul Sporer: I’m a Jameson guy from his prospect days (I say that as if he wasn’t just called up 9 minutes ago lol), but I’ve been on the bandwagon since he was drafted plus I love the schedule change for him next year since it won’t be as much LAD, SD or trips to Coors. I’m also not quitting Bradish despite my earlier comment about his start last night ending my season (probably, I could still come back). Normally us fantasy folks irrationally hate players who are seen as the reason for our downfall, but I really like his arm and think he can be a legit stud. I think he’s the best of the emerging BAL arms this year. Bello & Wesneski are a cut below those 2, but I have positives about them, too. All in all, this is a good group of cheap arms w/upside! 2:11 Linda: I am hunting for W’s that won’t blow up my ratios. Don’t need the K’s so much. Am I crazy to start Manning today? 2:12 Paul Sporer: Not crazy, no. There is definitely risk, of course, but it’s hard to find a better matchup in streaming than facing KC in a good park. Obviously the Tigers aren’t ideal support for a W, but I like the shot. I think a lot of ppl quit him after the SEA blowup but he has rebounded beautifully from it 2:12 Wendel Clark: Do you have a favourite hockey player? (check out the 3:10min mark – savage! ) 2:14 Paul Sporer: 3 faves are all Wings: Brendan Shanahan, Slava Kozlov, Nick Lidstrom | Pavel Bure was my favorite non-Wing growing up! 2:14 Homer: Young pitchers…Lodolo, Singer, Freddy Peralta, Ranger Suarez…any of these guys taking a step forward next year? 2:23 Paul Sporer: Lodolo can be an ace-level pitcher if he finds some command, but that won’t be easy so I see more of a small step next year (mid-3.00s ERA, low-1.20s WHIP, tons of Ks). Singer broke out this year so I’ll be looking for more a plateau season next yr though we could see some added Ks offset expected ratios regression. Peralta was really only health, skills were still great. Suarez kinda broke out once discovering that cutter: 4.23 ERA/1.48 WHIP before; 2.55 ERA/1.12 WHIP since. So in the end, I think Lodolo has the best chance at a substantial step forward next year! 2:24 Broken bat: Hoerner moves to 2nd base in 2023. What BIG NAME shortstop is coming to north side? 2:24 Paul Sporer: Dansby Swanson? 2:24 Big Joey: Is Will Smith a keeper (keep 6) in a 12 team, 1 catcher league that counts OBP and SLG? 2:24 Paul Sporer: Certainly a viable keeper, but I’d have to see the other options 2:24 Moop: I’m assuming that Snell continues his usual lights out 2nd half pitching but for the entire year in 2023 (at 180+ IP) and wins the NL Cy. Thank you for confirming. 2:25 Paul Sporer: Absolutely! 2:25 Papa Smurf: So you like Bradish more than Grayson Rodriguez? 2:26 Paul Sporer: No no, of their big leaguers: Bradish, Wells, Voth, Kremer, Watkins, Baumann 2:26 Kyle: Can you have someone add pitch count to the game log data on Fangraphs? 2:27 Paul Sporer: We’ve got it, thought admittedly it isn’t obvious that it’d be under the More BB tab so I’ll see about getting it moved to a more intuitive spot: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-bradish/24586/game-log?type=4&g… 2:28 Linda: In my other league, I’m in the finals (H2H) and the other manager has a bajillion starts. Thoughts on Taijuan Walker (2 more starts) and Sandoval (1 more start) to counter in hopes I get a W and some decent counting stats? 2:29 Paul Sporer: I’m in. Sandoval lines up for OAK and Taijuan gets MIA/WAS (the Nats haven’t been a total walkover in the 2H, but I’m not afraid of them, either, especially in a do-or-die situation) 2:29 Scotty: Where are you ranking Gunnar Henderson for 3B next year? Does he break the top 10? 2:30 Paul Sporer: Not quite top 10, but not too far outside similar to Josh Jung who we discussed earlier 2:31 RAGBRAI: Is Finnegan worth $5 in a NL only $260 league? Standard 5×5. 2:32 Paul Sporer: No, I’d rather find the next Finnegan for a buck or three. No guarantees he has a closer’s role and his skilsl aren’t THAT great if he’s not closing 2:33 Pedro: Start Kluber in last game against Astros? I need wins and Ks badly and Houston may be resting players 2:35 Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d go for it. HOU is scary, but I agree that they could be sitting multiple guys. We know Yordan will be out for sure 2:35 Ump Show: That’s a balk! Do I get an RBI? 2:35 Paul Sporer: 9 balks in a row! You have 4 RBIs now! 2:38 Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!