Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 27th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all thanks for coming out!!

Guest: Esmerlyn vs Nate Lowe in OBP?

Paul Sporer: It’s Lowe for me. Valdez is interesting, but probably peaks as a Lowe-type

Jip Needs to Know: Do you think McGonigle has some Roman Anthony in him in the sense that he’s got great barrel rate and hitting skills but that it might not translate to HR power?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I don’t think he’s a lock 30-HR guy necessarily, but he’s also one of these guys who seems like he’s just going to keep getting better. The Utley comps are lofty but not completely misplaced as a top end

Ginn’ed up: I’m on the JT Ginn bandwagon, but his next starts are tough. Better to swap out for a reliever (or his new teammate Jump?) or is he now a team streamer in deep leagues?

Paul Sporer: How deep we talkin? I can see some team stream vibes in 15s, but when are you really looking forward to running him? After this upcoming NYY, he goes to HOU, hosts MIL, and then has a double home 2-step (PIT/LAA). So while I grant deeper leagues definitely aren’t filled with talent to necessarily replace him, I’d still be open to moving on and then in anything shallower, he’s a standard streamer

Houzer: Ok Paul – it’s time to deal Skubal. Im sure Dombrowski would love to have him- is Justin Crawford and Aiden Miller a good haul for him? Would give us two 2027 starters in positions of need with potential high impact for years to come

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure Philly does that, but I think I’d be actually be OK w/that for Detroit as much as I hate having to give up this dreadful season

JWargs: I have Bazzana at 2B and McGonigle at 3B as starters. I have Gelof and Colt Emerson on the bench to back them up. Matt McClain and Josh Jung both just got dropped. Are either of them better than what I have? I can afford to be patient (12 tm standard 5×5 redraft) Thank you my friend, I appreciate ll the advice.

Paul Sporer: It gets really hard to start splitting that group up. The 4 of them (putting Baz/McG a cut above) all have their plusses and minuses so I’m not sure I have a hard enough lean to make a move. It can be tough wading through the shallower league pools bc there is just so much similar talent, finding the gems is sometimes just getting lucky picking 1 from a group of like players

lwomack58: Would you trade Rooker for Luzardo in 10t h2h category league?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I would. The frustration start-to-start with Luzardo is real and understandable, but a 21% K-BB is elite. I’m still going to trust that talent even amidst the Duds.

Adenolith: Is it just me, or does it feel like this season, more than ever, pitchers are either having great outings, or they’re getting blown up? What’s happening?

Paul Sporer: Basically Luzardo in a nutshell, lol

Paul Sporer: It certainly does feel that way. I’m not sure if it’s more true or what would explain it, but maybe later I’ll dig into the Duds (5+ ER starts) a bit more to see if there’s anything.

Guest: Hunter Goodman’s strikeouts are hurting me in a points league. Is Ivan Herrera an upgrade?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think so, especially if BB get pts, too, bc Herrera has a large edge there, too. What are their respective points per gm in your setup?

Shota In The Dark: Now that the Shota sell-high window has closed, what’s his potential trade value look like, and am I better off sitting tight to see if his value picks back up?

Paul Sporer: Draft day value I would think. Still valuable, but not tangibly improved. (HRs almost always regress)

Houzer: Sandy is cooked Bruh ..

Brady: Is it time to drop Sandy in 12 teamers?

Paul Sporer: Yes 😔

Paul Sporer: Team Streamer in 15s mostly due to lack of wire options all that much better, but yeah he’s just not back. I had hope early on for sure but it was almost assuredly just the opponent slate

Skenes?: Would you trade away Junior Caminero for Paul Skenes in a 12-team H2H category league? Could use an ace for a playoff run…. Thank you

Paul Sporer: Absolutely no issues there!

Guest: Herrera scores about 20% more points, but I worry that Goodman will heat up with warmer weather in Coors over the summer that the gap will close between them

Paul Sporer: He certainly might but Herrera is really good so you’re not even really taking a worse hitter. It is hard to cut Rockies, espec. ones actually doing well, but even if he heats up further, the Ks will still be high-20s (though if he heats up enough, he can outrun the K%, I do get that). It seems you’re trading ceiling for floor (while still getting a strong ceiling).

Jake McCarthy: Am I back?

Paul Sporer: Looks like his Arizona self but you pair that with a Coors bonus and he’s pretty solid. He runs on the road (7 of 9 SBs) and then just rakes at home (.900 OPS). The real key is health, not skill. He’s reached 100 gms in an MLB season just once.

Dave: What have the Brewers unlocked with Kyle Harrison, and do you think it is sustainable (both RoS and beyond)?

Paul Sporer: Nothing they’ve specifically done as far as I can tell, just the emergence of a one-time top prospect. They may’ve put the finishing touches and maybe there’s something about their pitching dev that works well as a finishing school to get the best out of talent (Priester last year, too, though I believe there were more concrete transformations w/him). Crazy part is Boston is also a good pitching dev and they whiffed both Priester and Harrison (whiff maybe overstates it on Harrison — they wanted to address 3B and had SP depth). At any rate, I’m in on Harrison and loving his emergence.

Arms and Armor: Where does Melton slide into the SP mix relative to the likes of Noah Schultz, JT Ginn, Cantillo?

Paul Sporer: Above all of them for me. Health needs to maintain, of course, but I think he’s a stud in the making. Probably will take some time to mold into that but he’s one of my favorite pitching prospects. Maybe Skubal returns and they team up to save the season!

Moo Man: Could Cowser be back, or is it just walk-off magic?

Paul Sporer: Almost assuredly the latter. I had some lottery ticket upside hope for him (even threw a Bold Prediction on him) coming into the season, but there’s just too much swing and miss

Gray days for Grayson?: Are you taking any fliers on Grayson Rodriguez? I know the first 2 have been tough (with one vs. Dodgers) but his stuff+ is solid.

Paul Sporer: I’m just not there with Rodriguez right now

Houzer: I dont get the hype with Jackson Merrill. OOPSY ROS is like 15HR/8SB and 50ish runs and RBI with a .250BA. How is this an exciting player?

Paul Sporer: I think his proponents see a much better AVG upside. Obv a .194 is gross as a .250 BABIP holds him down, but he is hitting the ball harder than he ever has at 46% HardHit. I think he’s a .270s true talent w/upside for more. It’s been bad, though, I can’t deny that. Just feels tough to let go in anything but maybe the shallowest leagues. At least he still has 4 HR/10 SB so it’s not a totallll 0

Salty: Royce Lewis has 6 HRs in 30 AAA ABs. Are you jumping back in with both feet if he gets a quick call up?  Or are you willing to let others take that plunge?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m a moron, I’ll be right back at the table burning my FAAB 🤣

Guest: Concern level for seiya?

Paul Sporer: Minimal in 15s, Rising in 12s, Cuttable in 10s — I can see coming back to him in shallower leagues when he heats up, but you don’t have to ride the low

Mr. Sparkle: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. 12tm 7×7 roto: Do you think it’s time to move on from Ian Happ? He’s got the counting stats, but the xStats are pretty dismal and this may be who he is. A big BA drain, with big ups and downs. Considering stashing Edwin Arroyo in his place

Paul Sporer: The Cubs OF getting smoked rn!

Paul Sporer: I’m holding Happ, though. The AVG is rough at .212 but that’s in the range of outcomes for his skillset, espec w/the jump in Ks. Are the extra cats not in his favor? I can see maybe sitting him to help salve the AVG a little, but he’s a tough cut for me in a 12

Rizzuto: What’s up with Jackson Merrill? Thrilled to get him in trade last year. Signed him up long term. Looks like a mistake.

Paul Sporer: Sorry meant to pop this in w/the other Merrill Q, see above ^^^^

Flon is sad: Dropped Eury after the TBR start and having him torch peripherals (ERA, WHIP, K/BB) each time he ran out there.  Is he now never going to walk anyone again?  ROS top ____ SP?

Paul Sporer: This was a real do-or-die start for me. I wasn’t going to cut in 15s, but I definitely would’ve stopped auto starting him. Now a couple solid ones in a row is a nice, but this was still just 4 IP bc the 9 Ks ran his count (I assume, I’m watching Gavin Williams). He’ll likely be in the Top 40 range in my next update

InsertWittyNameHere: What to do with McLean?  Obvs we know the volatility of rookie pitchers, but do you think he’ll harness it as the year goes on or should I try to sell to a Mets fan in the league?

Paul Sporer: Kind of a less reliable version of Luzardo (funny comparison given how unreliable both are) but my biggest concern with McLean is the 10% SwStr. Really tough to run a 30% K rate with that. Still running him at SDP everywhere next wk, but anything short of a gem there makes him a very scary proposition v. ATL after that.

Why Not Zoidberg: Traded Vlad for Sal Stewart and Mason Miller – Good.
Traded CJ Abrams and M King for Tatis – Very Bad.
Traded McClanahan and R Vasquez for Woo – Good.
Traded Sonny Gray for Rooker – probably good?

I think I just like trading.

Paul Sporer: Solid overall run, even w/the Tatis flameout

InsertWittyNameHere: Appreciate the response in your Daily SP comments!  Henderson did great vs LAD. When he comes off the IL, am I dropping Tolle?

Paul Sporer: No prob! I’m likely holding Tolle assuming he doesn’t fall off sharply between now and Henderson’s return

Buddy Biancalana: What are your thoughts on Mick Abel once he returns?  Injuries are mounting and I think I can keep holding, but not sure it’s worth it (12 team, 25 man roster, 2 IL spots).

Paul Sporer: I’ll def seek him out to reacquire upon return but expectations are in check. Probably not taking 1 of 2 IL spots in a 12er for me rn

Guest: I’m not bothered by Abner Uribe’s dance moves. I am bothered by the fact that his slider isn’t sliding this year. SwStri% down to 11% from 19%, Contact% up to 71% from 57%. Small sample size or should I be worried?

Paul Sporer: I’m not a stick in the mud w/cellys but he has to know his own manager is going to HATE every ounce of that! It’s a bit egregious regardless (though let’s not pretend he’s a bad dude or even needs any tangible punishment for it) but let’s read the room, Abner, Pat is gonna stomp your ass out for that!!!

As for your skills Q, it’s a bit alarming as it’s yielding a 7% SwStr which is HORRENDOUS. He’s still getting enough Ks, but I can’t see how he sustains without a sharp improvement. That lack of reliable swing and miss paired w/this misstep in judgment on the mound could cost him some leverage spots, too, though if the slider comes back, Murph will get him right back in there

Guest #2: Does strider as a top 50 sp for the rest of the season feel right to you? Too high? Too low? thank you

Paul Sporer: Yeah that feels about right. He’s juuust outside the Top 50 in the loose ranking I keep tracking for SP Charts before an official update (coming next wk!) and I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves inside it once I comb over the list