Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 20th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!

RAGBRAI: When/if Woodruff returns to the rotation, who gets bumped? And is it to the bullpen or AAA?

Paul Sporer: The thing is, those questions often sort themselves out by someone else getting hurt by the time someone else is returning from the IL, in this case Woody. Gasser is last one so prob first one out right now

Carter: 12 Team 5×5 Cats: Should i finally cut bait on Matt Chapman? and Who would you look for to replace him? Some names on the wire: J. Jung, I. Paredes, A. Bohm, N. Arenado? (also I have Colt Emerson waiting for 3B eligibility)

Paul Sporer: Ya the extreme power outage is enough to push me off in 12s. I’d go for Jung with as strong as he’s been. Assuming that’s Josh, right? Surprised if he’s out there!

RAGBRAI: What can we expet from Dylan Crews? Not surprised he didn’t making OD, put has he done enough at AAA to realy to  push his way into everyday ABs in the OF? They can’t have brought him up to sit or platoon, could they?

Paul Sporer: Better power output. They asked him to chase less and lift more, they were satiated by his progress in both. Keep an eye on both to see if the growth sticks. Upside remains extreme and as such I’m willing to take a shot even before he puts any numbers on the board, especially bc they did outline specific changes he was instructed to make to get his recall

Jane: hi Paul, do i want Marsh or Bleday? thank you again.

Paul Sporer: Marsh has been solid doing his normal big BABIP thing (.384; career .372) paired w/some pop and spd (4 HR/3 SB), but I’d take the shot on Bleday’s explosion bc he’s remade his plate skills. +5 pts in BB%; -10% in K% making him a force vs. righties. He still has a 12% SwStr so he hasn’t completely stopped whiffing, but he’s chasing less and taking a lot fewer called strikes, which suggests to me he’s attacking hittable pitches earlier in counts that he might’ve taken for called strikes previously so he’s not K’ing as much despite the whiffs. A 7 pt. jump in zone contact (Justin would be so proud of me) backs that up as well.

We should treat the K% gains a bit more lightly as a result just because it’s not built off fewer total whiffs so he could still spiral into a period of 30% K, but there are enough real gains here that I like him over Marsh bc the upside is 30-HR hitter in a great park (30 HR v. righties at least, so playing time might curb that raw total down a bit)

Adenolith: Looking to buy low on Rooker but then I saw his strikeout and whiff rates and I got scared. Is he still a good buy at this point or is there something wrong with him?

Paul Sporer: He is definitely earning these Ks more w/the 4 pt. jumps in SwStr and Chase rate, but the power is still there (he’s pacing toward 35 HRs if he had last yr’s PA count) and I think he can patch the Ks a bit. Swing and miss is part of a power hitter’s gm and this Q being right after Bleday’s is perfect bc Rooker is someone who improved his Ks despite SwStr remaining high and we’re seeing this year how that can go south. Bottom line is I still believe in the power and will happily buy low. At the very least, I get a buncha power w/a bad AVG, but the upside is he cleans up the Ks a bit and I get 4 mos. of 2024-25 Rook

Paul Sporer: DOG POTTY BREAK — THEY WERE SLEEPING BEFORE CHAT SO I DIDN’T GET TO TAKE ‘EM. GIMME A QUICK 5

AL Central Casting: Is Bubba Chandler a drop in 12 mixed? Team streamer?

Paul Sporer: We’re dropping until we see something. Standard streamer in only the friendliest matchups right now

Guest: Would you rather have Nick Lodolo or Trevor Rodgers for ROS? 12 Team.

Paul Sporer: Nick Lodolo. I didn’t think Rogers was a fraud after last year, but early returns are REALLYYYY challenging that notion

Blue Rodeo: Does Joey Cantillo still have upside? Or is this who he is?

Paul Sporer: Yes to both questions in a weird way. He’s not FUNDAMENTALLY different than this where he’s just gonna drop his BB% to 5% on a whim buuuut at the same time this profile has upside. It’s a bit Robbie Rayian in the terms of the skills profile where the Ks keep us coming back while the volatility can be maddening. I’m not saying he’s got a Cy comin like Ray got, but when you consistently miss bats like this, it’s a very workable foundation

War2D2: Hi Paul! 6×6 H2H league (standard 5, plus holds and hitter walks). I’ve been holding onto Soderstrom and Merrill because I paid so much for them in the draft, but neither one is showing signs of life. My other OF are Buxton and Rooker. I picked up Marsee and Sheets off the waiver wire and they’ve been doing well, but I got a roster crunch and don’t like carrying too many position players (I prefer to carry starting pitchers since we don’t have inning limits and try to steal pitcher counting stats while punting on rates). Would you hold them a while longer or cut bait? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Firmly holding Merrill w/4 HR and 9 SB even as the slash line disappoints greatly. But Sody gets the nod for me even w/out the shiny counting categories to prop up his slash. He does still have 5 HRs and the 9% HR/FB is holding his power output back. While not massively different, both his K and BB rates are better this yr. Power metrics are fine. Soderstrom also has a painful .213 BABIP that should regress, though not necessarily back to last year’s .327 as his flyball rate is up 14 pts to 45%. That is conducive to more HRs, but fewer hits, of course. All in all, I’m holding both and would look to cut Marsee and Sheets before either

IM AN AGA: What does a fair hitter return look like if I’m trying to deal Imanaga?

Paul Sporer: Gotta be pretty nice hitter. Top 40 type at least? And I’m thinking more Top 40 drafted than Top 40 so far this year. Maybe that looks like a buy low on Machado or Ketel Marte? At any rate, definitely can ask for a substantial impact bat.

Idiotic Failson: Is it time to bail on Jack Leiter in 12 team leagues (40 man roster, auction dynasty)? It just seems like he is who he is, and that’s not good.

Paul Sporer: Not a must start there, but I would hold a little longer given y’all’s roster size and his 2-step next wk w/both at home. Maybe that’s the final test. If he doesn’t make your rotation w/HOU-KCR both coming to visit him, it’s probably time to go

Mike: Who is the first you drop or trade of Bradish, Tolle, and Logan Henderson?

Paul Sporer: I’m probably looking to trade Tolle bc I think he can bring back the most while you’re still keeping 2 very solid guys in Bradish/Henderson. First cut is Henderson right now though I don’t say that out of any dislike for him, just preference toward the other two in a must-cut sitch.

RWFTF: h2h points league – do I drop Eury for Ranger?

Paul Sporer: Yes I’m OK w/this. Ranger being available tells me it’s a shallower league and we don’t have to keep Eury around in all shallow lgs right now. I thought/hoped he had worked out the injury return kinks in last yr’s 95 IP of work, but the inconsistent command control suggest that simply isn’t true. BB way up and HRs through the roof. Worse yet is the K rate has dipped to just 25%, too. I’d keep a close eye on him if/when you do cut bc he’s someone who can turn on a dime and be a must-roster again, but for now, I’m fine moving on from Eury in shallower format

Guest: So basically everything that needed to go right for Chandler Simpson has gone right: good defense leading to PT; hitting for a good average; staying healthy….and he’s 14SB/6CS. Not terrible but not 100-SB-Caliber, particularly with the recent SB-biased rules changes. What gives?

Paul Sporer: What gives on what? Like you said, this is essentially the dream scenario. If you’re saying what gives like is this all there is, the answer is yes. This is what the no-power rabbits bring. That’s why I’ve always been of the mind that you really need to craft a plan pre-draft that fits these guys in and surrounds them w/extreme power otherwise you’re just playing catch up. I don’t think it’s as simple as just going Schwarber or something like that, either. I’d rather spread Simpsons sub-5 HR burden across a couple spots or even the team at large if you also don’t want Schwarber/Alonso types.

The Batman: My team is basically tied for first place in a 12 team OC, and the only category I’m really suffering in is steals (9th). I have Bobby Witt Jr., but basically no one else has panned out on that front. Would you prioritize guys like Crews, David Hamilton, or, god help me, Esteury Ruiz to turn that frown upside down (and possibly create new problems)? Or would you just let that one go and stick to the formula that’s working?

Paul Sporer: I’d really target Crews based on the earlier discussion regarding the changes he made to improve his power output. He might not just be a speed guy like Ham and Ruiz. But even if you do go for a rabbit like those 2, you don’t have to commit to them forever. They can bring SBs in bunches, so you might only need a couple wks from them so they won’t totally sink your AVG or drain your power. Just keep an idea how your other offensive categories are looking week to week if you do take on a speed demon and make sure they’re carrying their weight w/a few SBs per period

Patillo: How do you deal with an owner in your league who asks outrageous prices for anyone in trade? In my 10-team keeper league, the owner in question has asked for one of Soto, Shohei, or Skubal (pre-surgery) as a starting point in a deal for Roman Anthony. Roman’s good, but… that’s steep.

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately if there is no negotiating off that, then they’re just not someone worth dealing with given the wasted time. Even in a keeper lg, I’m just not paying that for Anthony. He hasn’t done anything to earn that kind of return. But don’t get mad or berate them, just try to talk to them and level with them — “hey, i’ll pay up for Anthony, but i can’t give 1st rd value for a guy who hasn’t shown 1st rd upside at all.” If they’re deadset on 1 of those 3 studs, then let ’em know they have to add to Anthony. If none of that works, then just close that trade window unfortunately

Blue Rodeo: How many MLB games do you attend each season?

Paul Sporer: Probably about 5

MilwaukeeBeerJays: How many hot dogs do you eat at those 5 MLB games?

Paul Sporer: About 5, prob 1 per

Lolligagers: When Roman comes back, who do I drop from this group? Bleday, Steer, Cags, Bolte, Waldschmidt

Paul Sporer: How they’re performing likely plays a role, but I’d lean Bolte

Andy Dirks: Paul, I’m in a Detroit-based Keep-5 forever 10man 5×5 league. I have Kevin McGonigle and the Konnor Griffin owner is making a push for a trade, and willing to swap Griffin + more assets. Both are kept at near last round costs forever. My heart says no, but does Griffin have a significantly better fantasy outlook for now and the future with his power and speed? As for the +, I could at least get some picks out of it, but was thinking of adding my Jose Ramirez for his Ronald Acuna to it (which am also torn on, love J-ram, but 5 years age difference is big). What would you do?

Paul Sporer: I think they’re close enough to where I’d just stick w/the hometown hero and enjoy that greatness. When it comes to 2 superstars – or could be superstars, neither is there yet – I usually just stick w/the 1 I’ve got.

Guest: Hey Paul, I can’t lay off the youngsters this year! I’m currently rostering AJ Ewing, Colt Emerson, Henry Bolte, Dylan Crews, and am quick to drop streaky vets such as Sheets, Stott, Varsho, etc., in order to pick them up. Am I doing this wrong? Will my herky jerky rosterbating hurt me, or should I keep on grabbing the shiny young toys just to see if one takes off like a rocket for ROS value? (I’m in 12-ream roto BTW.) Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I gotta level with you, it probably will catch up w/you. If some youngsters stick, that’s a different story, but it’d be a big upset if all 4 were roster staples all year. I fully acknowledge that the cut/hold game is really rough in 12s bc you don’t want to hold too long and eat bad numbers but also don’t want to cut too soon and miss the goodness. I’m definitely down to chase rookies bc they are a high impact part of the game today, but it’s hard to chase alllll of em

Andy Dirks: Thank you for answer re McGonigle/Griffin. Where would you stand on the JRam/Acuna long term keeper question in a vaccum?

Paul Sporer: I mean, if it’s JRam-McG for Griffin-Acuña, that’s definitely fair but not a slam dunk. Yes 5 yrs younger for Acuña but 2 busted knees mitigate that some.

Dos Muncys: Could we be seeing a late breakout by Zeke Duran?

Paul Sporer: He seems good for a big run or two every year. Known as a lefty-killer, he’s been outright bad v. them since 2024 after a big 2023 (837 OPS, 6 HR) but a legit surge vR is driving this success: 851 OPS, 3 HR. The .370 BABIP against righties won’t hold but even as that regression sets in, we’re seeing legit power improvement from him that could make him a deep league hold for quite some time. For now, ride it in 12s and see where he goes w/that BABIP

Dos Muncys: How do you see the A’s outfield logjam playing out?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see how Clarke doesn’t play even w/his modest bat which likely pushes out Bolte and leaves Sody in LF and then Butler/Cortes fighting for RF PT. Cortes has been way better but Butler is paid and that does carry weight whether right or wrong. They’re also not just going to quit a guy of 150 PA (though he was just a 96 wRC+ last yr).

Guest: with 63 pitching points vs 27 hitting, the obvious solution is trade pitching for hitting, but the trade market is as dead as the wire. i overturned the bottom third of my lineup in the last couple days but it’s not helping so far either

Paul Sporer: That’s tough but it means you gotta stay diligent on the wire and likely need to land on a hidden stud to really pivot the offense. Although, it also depends which of your stars already on the team have lagged and how bright their future outlook is. If the stars start starring then incremental consistent gains off the wire is all you need.

It can be hard to see a turnaround super quickly even making 3-4 moves but try to give the pickups some time to actually succeed lest you end chasing your tail and constantly catching the butt end of hot streaks where they fizzle out in your lineup w/little or none of the good stuff

Josh F: love the 2start pods but you had Gore as vs BAL and @ NYY but he’s actually @ COL and vs LAA. My SP is stacked in a 12 (Gilbert, Schlittler, Warren, Weathers, Tolle, Burns, King) with Cole coming back. Gore a drop with the lat issue now?

Paul Sporer: Looks like I left the TBR matchups left in Gore’s line as that’s who McClanahan has this week. At any rate, the actual matchups don’t really help as I didn’t want him in Coors and now he’s nicked so it’s a pass at LAA, too. Yes, you can cut in a 12.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out! Thanks for coming, more next week. Next SP rankings update: the week of June 1st.