Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 5th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Frank: In a keep forever, would you rather have Jared Jones or Bryan Woo?

Paul Sporer: I lean Jones there in part due to Woo’s injury history, though I freely admit that any pitcher is super susceptible to injury and it’s not like Jones didn’t have a big injury of his own last yr

Mochi: Even if Luis Robert doesn’t return to the dizzying heights of yesteryear, he’s still a top 10 CF for how many years providing reasonable health?

Paul Sporer: Still just 27 yrs old, so at least the next 3-4 yrs I’d think

ObliqueSoChic: 12T 5×5 12 spot keep forever – can I trust Christian Walker as a keeper with his age and oblique history? I guess I have to?

Paul Sporer: I thiiink so. We’ll have to see if this oblique develops into a substantial issue, but if not, I like him quite a bit in Houston

MattStats5: Thanks for doing these, Paul.  10 team, HtH categories.  5 Keepers…BWJ, Gunnar, JRod, and Skenes are locks (I think).  Last one comes down to Churio, Logan Webb, or Ragans.  Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: No prob, ty for coming out. Agree w/the locks and I’d Chourio to the mix!!

RoseiBoi: If things click for Tommy Edman this year in that Dodger lineup, what kind of upside does he have in your opinion?

Paul Sporer: I can see him really popping off – .270/10/40 and his R/RBI will depend if he can ascend that lineup but even batting low on the Dodgers should still generate plenty of R/RBI opps

Joe: Two questions: 1. Quality starts roto keeper league. My team has elite hitters as keepers, but my last keeper choice is 22nd rd Jobe and 13fh round Alcantara. 72 keepers each year (6 per team). 2. With three elite hitter keepers, would you lean getting a top pitcher in first round or squeeze out one more higher ranked hitter then pound middle ranks of pitchers? Thanks

Paul Sporer:

1. I love Jobe, but I gotta run Alcantara though, even at the higher cost, especiallyyyy with it being QS.
2. Depends which pitchers are available, tbh. If there are some true aces around, I’d probably pair one with Sandy

Cromulent: Would you consider trading Marcelo Mayer for Ozzie Albies in a 15 team mixed dynasty where I’m trying to break through after three straight second place finishes? I just worry Mayer could be the more valuable of the two in a year.

Paul Sporer: I would, yes. I understand Mayer could rise up, but he’s kinda buried right now w/their embarrassment of riches so I’m happy to focus on this year and scoop Albies

Matt: You keeping a $10 Nimmo, or dropping him to try to get him back cheaper. OBP machine, but the counting stats aren’t great and the plantar fasciitis and now the knee is concerning…

Paul Sporer: Would need a bit more league info, is it an OBP league? But if it’s standard 5×5, I’m OK passing. It’s a fair price but not an amazing deal

Guest: Final keeper spot: Holliday, McClain, R Lewis or Crews? Taking into account 2B is more of a position of need. Thanks in advance!

Paul Sporer: With 2B being the need, I think that pushes me to Matt McLain among this really compelling group

keep up to 15: trying so hard to move a $36 marcus semien I inherited in a keeper league. Is this even possible? What would you target?

Paul Sporer: It’s gonna be tough. I’m a huge Semien fanboy and I don’t think I’d take him on unless inflation is just off the charts in your league. I’d keep an open mind and maybe take anything I could get

Moonbeam: Sounds like Trea Turner will be batting leadoff this year instead of Schwarber. Runs and possibly SBs might increase, solidifying himself as a true 5 category player. Can he break into the first round in terms of value?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure, he’s just trucking along with solid seasons and if he spikes a healthy 145-150 game season, 1st round value is easy to envision

RoseiBoi: Has Zebby Matthews passed Festa in the Twins pitching hierarchy?

Paul Sporer: I think so, but inexplicably neither can seem to leapfrog Simeon Woods Richardson which I just don’t get

Nacho: Dude in the 400 picks of my nfbc draft champions and I’m starting to have a hard time deciding who to pick, strategy, etc. help!!

Paul Sporer: Hopefully you’ve been loading up hitting bc it dries up BIG time this late whereas there are still compelling pitchers you can take shots on. I’d be happy to help in a more detailed way, I need more info about the league, who you eyeing, what you have, etc…

KT: Respectfully, I feel like you have been behind the 8 ball this season with fantasy baseball news and analysis. Small things like forgetting Paredes was traded to the Astros, or not knowing player X was signed. Was this all flu related stuff that really messed with your baseball prep?

Paul Sporer: I missed some small signings, but did I forget Paredes was traded? I’ve been gassing up as a Crawford Boxes killer for a while now

Mochi: Are we riding the Lars train forever?  I’m so itchy for the breakout season.

Paul Sporer: One more ride! If we can’t find some real health this year, it’s time to move on. Happy to pay his price this year, though

Kevin: I’m trying to decide why there isn’t more love for Heliot Ramos. 14.5% barrel rate and a 47% hard hit confirm the 22 homers and 23 doubles from last year were legit right? Have I discovered a legit sleeper?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think there is some sleeper juice here. Insofar as anyone can be a sleeper in the internet era. The oblique clouds things a bit, but as a post-200 pick, I’m in. He was a major prospect whose hype died down a bit and ppl kinda forgot about him and now he’s showing some legit pop, sign me up!

Mets pitching: With Sproat getting sent down, would you still consider using a roster spot to keep him in an NL only?

Paul Sporer: NL Only, sure if it’s late enough and you can scoop a decent enough replacement

Walewander: Do you trust Bednar coming into 2025?

Paul Sporer: I do think he rebounds, yes. I prefer to slot him as my 2nd closer as I’m someone who pays up for saves so I’ll have an ace closer and then pair him w/Bednar

Chucky: Keep forever with no contracts. Who you got between Texas Jung, the oft injured one and Chicago’s Shaw?

Paul Sporer: I think Matt Shaw has more fantasy juice than Jung

RoseiBoi: Should Hyesong Kim continue to struggle in LA, what is the probability we see Freeland get more PAs than him?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t get too caught up in Kim’s spring struggles, but he seemed to be ticketed for AAA even before that given their depth. Freeland could get some more spring PT but I don’t see any way he cracks this team

Greg: I have a complicated keeper situation but it boils down to this question… I think I have the best team in my keep forever points league, but knowing that, would you rather head into this season with Jared Jones as a last round keeper OR use my first round pick on Imanaga or Sasaki? I know that question doesn’t line up to make perfect sense, but that’s the question I’m facing with some of our keeper parameters.

Paul Sporer: Big Jared Jones chat today with a couple Qs including him. I’m going for Jones here. Nothing against Roki & Imanaga, I just love Jones and the last round keeper is too compelling to pass up

Paul Sporer: BTW, I meant to post this at the outset of the chat, but the SP rankings a fresh coat of paint late last night with plenty of rankings movement and a buncha new profiles — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2025-fantasy-rankings

Acadia: 12T roto, who would you rather keep for this season and next: Abrams in the 6th round or Santander in the 12th? I’m leaning Abrams due to his upside but Santander in the 12th also seems like quite good value…

Paul Sporer: You’re not wrong about Santander’s value being solid in the 12th, but in a 12-teamer I want as much super high impact talent as I can get since the waiver wire is more flush than in a 15-teamer and as such that leads me to CJ Abrams who has 1st-2nd round upside with his do-everything profile

Kevin: Morel plays outfield full time for Tampa next year right? With some time at 3rd if caminero struggles or gets hurt?

Paul Sporer: Should get a real shot as they love and he can smack the piss outta the ball when he makes contact, but he has to improve on what he did w/TB after the trade last yr or he will lost PT. As a post-250 pick, I’m willing to gamble on him and hope TB has some things in store to help him improve but there is a wide range of outcomes w/someone who has that much swing-and-miss

2B…Psyche!: Bregman isn’t actually going to play 10 games of second base… is he…?

Paul Sporer: An unsatisfying answer to be sure, but it depends! I do think there’s a strong chance, though, with Devers going back to 3B once he’s healthy and then Bregs over to 2B. The big wrinkle that could change that would be a Casas trade that opens up 1B for Devers. If that happens, Breg’s chances at 2B would sink IMO

comish4lif: Who would keep in a 1 catcher league: Joey Bart at $1.00, Hunter Goodman at $3.00, JT Realmuto at $17.00 or None of the Above?

Paul Sporer: Prob none of the above and see what the auction gives me, but I do like the Bart buck. But again, you can prob just get him for a buck in the auction again so I’d rather use that keeper spot elsewhere in a 1-C league

Kevin: Listening to your outfielder pods, I didn’t really hear you guys talk about average as much, which I understand why. But for guys like Jrod, I think lack of average is a big deal given how hard it is to find in later rounds

Paul Sporer: His .270s is solid enough when he’s putting up 30/30 and as a 24-year-old there is still upside to be a .290s kinda guy, but ya it does fall a bit short of being a true 5-category bc .270s doesn’t really move the needle, especially in 10- and 12-team leagues

Shandy Koufax: ESPN points league, last keeper is done to Yandy Diaz or Riley Greene. I like Yandys stability and better median projection, but Greene feels like there’s more upside.
do you think Greene can cut some more strikeouts to find a new level?

Paul Sporer: Agree with your outlook and it’s that Greene upside that pushes me toward him. I definitely think there’s another level and it’s not impossible to see it coming this year so he’s my choice

Idiotic Failson: Is Mason Wynn a good enough SS to be the starter on a championship fantasy team? 12 team, points. I might be able to package a deal for something better, or reach at the auction, but I hate to overpay

Paul Sporer: It’s a bit light for a 12 so hopefully you’re just loaded elsewhere throughout the lineup. There is upside for him to push into the Top 12, but I’d entertain upgrading whether it’s via trade or even at auction. Who’s slated to be available in the auction?

Chucky: Any mid/late ranked closers/set up pitchers you have your eyes on. Saves and Holds as separate categories so that diminishes Saves quite a bit.

Paul Sporer: Honestly w/it being SV/HD, I wouldn’t worry too much about RP in general. Closers are still better bc the top end guys log bigger numbers, but there are just sooo many options that you can cycle through. Some mid-later guys of note include Jeff Hoffman in TOR, the Arizona guys – Justin Martinez & AJ Puk (don’t sleep on Kevin Ginkel, either!), Jordan Roman in PHI, and Tyler Holton with my Tigers as AJ Hinch loves putting him in leveraged spots so you can even snake some cheap Ws

ransofast: in a 16 team keeper, 5×5 OBP, 260 budget, would you keep any of the following: Pasquantino at $18, matt chapman $12, riley greene $23? on the pitching side, g cole at $15, imanaga $16, bryce miller $19, ober $18?

Paul Sporer: Not super keen on any of those hitters at those prices in an OBP setup. If I had more confidence that Chapman would repeat those 15 SBs or even get 9-10, I can see him being worth it at $12. Otherwise, I think I just prefer the pitching group in general. Cole/Ober are my faves. I do worry about Imanaga’s HR rate pushing that ERA up, but he should still have a great WHIP, tons of a Ks, and good W potential on the Cubs so $16 isn’t too bad.

EV: Sleepers SPARS for H2H ?

Paul Sporer: Is that SP as RP? I think the CBS guys call ’em SPARPS w/that extra P at the end. I know he just got cooked in his recent ST outing, but I like Andrew Heaney in Pittsburgh. Definitely fit the sleeper mold. Grant Holmes is a big time fave of mine this yr, but maybe not a sleeper for SPARP. I like Nick Martinez, but I think he’s known for SPARP. Jackson Jobe def has some sleeper juice in that role.

BC: What do you think a year looks like for Yordon Alvarez if he ever “puts it all together”?

Paul Sporer: .325-50-125 in a dream fully healthy seaosn

Kevin: How many DCs have your drafted so far? How many OCs? How many are you planning for both?

Paul Sporer: 5, 0… prob done on DCs and maybe doing 1 OC

Ben: Am I crazy to be intrigued with Jerar Encarnacion? Sounds like he has inside track to DH job .. Giants could use his thump in the lineup

Paul Sporer: Not at all, he has some deep league intrigue IMO. SF isn’t the best park for hitters, but it’s much worse for lefties so a righty like Jerar with legit power can still put up 20+ in a breakout season

Idiotic Failson: Re: SS – Trea Turner (for a king’s ransom), Bichette, and then…nothing? 40 man rosters so not a lot shook free.

Paul Sporer: While he’s not my fave, I might take a shot on Bichette if he’s available at a discount given last year’s struggles. Again, Winn won’t kill ya and has some breakout potential so you don’t need to bend over backwards to upgrade the position right now if you’re just not feeling it

Jay: Larry Butler or Cody Bellinger?

Paul Sporer: Ooohhh that’s a tough one. The hype train is zooming up the board with Butler so I wonder if the relative discount on Belly makes sense at this juncture. I love Butler and believe he can payoff even with his hype, but Bellinger is 40 picks cheaper in recent Rotowire Online Championship leagues (12-team FAAB lgs) few guys had a better park change than Belly going from Wrigley to Yankee Stadium, so I think I lean him given their costs

Perry Gaylord: Saw a note that Marc Church is in consideration to close in Texas.  Thoughts on him?

Paul Sporer: Saw that same note or at least a similar note referencing Church possibly being in the mix. He’s mid-to-upper 90s with a nasty swing-and-miss change so if he keeps his BB% in check, he could find himself getting chances in leveraged situations and maybe even the 9th. I’m still drafting both Chris Martin and Robert Garcia ahead of him, but I could see a late round pick in a 50-round Draft & Hold for Church or a SVs spec in AL-Only, especially if you don’t have an ace closer

Ray: Hi Paul, loved your talk on SP with Nick Pollack the other night.  Pure gold.  You two have great chemistry.  I am looking for a high upside OF and MI in rounds 25+ in a 15-team 5×5 NFBC. Could you give me a couple of your best?

Paul Sporer: That’s so much, Nick rules, truly love that guy! Interesting OF: Austin Hays, MJ Melendez, Chandler Simpson if you need some speed, I’m still on the Miguel Vargas train as an everyday guy in Chicago, Kyle Stowers, Tirso Ornelas, and I can’t quit my guy Alek Thomas just yet. MI in that range: really wish Spencer Horwitz wasn’t hurt or I’d be all over him but I don’t love drafting IL guys in NFBC so I’ll go with guys like Caleb Durbin, Brooks Lee, Michael Massey, Josh Smith as a super utility guy in TEX, and I’m giving my guy Brendan Rodgers one more year as HOU seems committed to this Altuve-to-LF move in order to play Rodgers daily

O’s fan: How much of an impact will the new OF fence have on Ryan Mountcastle and do you think either Mayo or KJersted get regular rolls out of spring training?

Paul Sporer: Should help Mounty cop a few more HRs at home. Absolutely zero room for Mayo right now and while I am a big fan, I think Kjerstad is limited to a part-time role right now

Lord Thunder: Hey, Paul, love your work! Do you think Abrams has already “ceilinged-out?”

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! Definitely not re: Abrams. Still just 24 yrs old and we could see multiple more levels if he can develop. It might not come this year, but there is plenty of upside still lingering in his bat (and legs)

evan: are you a believer in Cristopher Sanchez? velo looks up and he looks great in ST

Paul Sporer: Huge believer. Loved him last yr and I’m not going anywhere this season, already got him on a couple rosters

Mike: Any thoughts on if Rooker plays OF?

Paul Sporer: He got 14 gms out there last yr so I can see him at least finding some in-season qualification this year (which is 5 gms in a lot of leagues). BIG Rooker fan, we had a detailed discussion on him during yesterday’s pod — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1384-of…

Russ: Pick one of Santander, Rooker, or T Hernandez.  12T total points league.

Paul Sporer: Rook & Teo. Tough to let Santander go as he’s not far behind, just think the other 2 both have more juice

Paul Sporer: Great stuff, y’all. Thanks so much for coming out. Gotta get back to writing up these SP profiles for another update coming relatively soon. I’ll see y’all next week!