Starting Pitcher 2025 Fantasy Rankings

I had some nerves ranking Tarik Skubal 11th last year because while I believed in the talent, it was still a lofty ranking based heavily on an 80-inning sample. Turns out he was underrated! The 28-year-old lefty put up nearly the same exact skills for 192 innings, netting the AL Cy Young in the process. Nothing within this year and a half sample suggests he is anything but an unquestioned ace. He added velocity, continued to walk virtually nobody, missed a ton of bats, and the other Cy Young winner – Chris Sale – was the only one to best him in K% (32% to 30%) and K-BB% (27% to 26%).

Isn’t it nice when things just work out? Paul Skenes had a brilliant rookie year that showed exactly why he was the #1 overall pick in 2023. The parallels with Stephen Strasburg’s debut are too strong to ignore but of course we hope Skenes can chart a different route in his sophomore season (Stras threw just 24 IP). His MLB-best 98.8 mph fastball (min. 130 IP) is the only real concern in his profile, but it’s not really actionable because while high velocity arms have been getting hurt left and right, that same velocity is part of why they are so good in the first place. Years ago, I might have been more concerned with the light track record, but even with fewer than 150 innings under his belt, I’m more than willing to take Skenes with a late 1st-/early 2nd-round pick.

Ho-hum, just another brilliant season for Zack Wheeler. He returned to the 200-inning club, hitting the number exactly thanks in part to going no fewer than 6 IP in any of his 11 starts over the final two months. He also led an NL-best 6.3 H/9 rate to a career-best (and NL-best) 0.96 WHIP. While there may be a tinge of age-related concern for the 35-year-old, it’s certainly not enough to take him out of the ace tier and then in comparison to some of the risk factors of others guy in this tier, he just winds up being one of the best arms you can get in the early rounds.

Garrett Crochet is another aggressive ranking based on a small sample of work. He looked every bit like an ace in his 146-inning breakout and as I move further away from the notion of “safe” pitchers, I find myself gravitating toward these massive upside arms who hold real ace potential. So much of our notions of safety with pitching comes in firm projections for their innings based on history, but we all know that every pitcher holds substantial injury risk. Yes, some hold more risk than others, but everyone’s baseline is remarkably high just by the very nature of pitching so give me the real game-changing upside found in an arm like Crochet’s.

If he was just overpowering last year and leveraged his excellent velocity and raw stuff to dominate the competition, perhaps I’d be a bit more cautious in my optimism. Seeing him put together a remarkable 6% BB rate was the development that really sold me on him. The light second half usage doesn’t really bother me and now that he’s been traded to Boston (yes, the original write up was definitely done before the trade, so I’ll have further assessment of him in Boston later), we don’t have to overly panic about wins. Truth be told, the original copy pointed out that I wasn’t worried about the wins even with the White Sox. His rank did not change for me after the trade.

We have another aggressive ranking here with Jacob deGrom, especially for a 37-year-old with all of 265 innings in the last five seasons combined. So why the ranking then? Because while they have been very limited samples, he still looks like premium Jacob deGrom. He’s now in a TJ honeymoon period, too, so while the injury risk isn’t gone or anything, this is the healthiest he’s been in years and I’m willing to take a shot on such an amazing arm. He is still so good that even 100-120 IP is enough to be worth this lofty ranking.

While I was higher on George Kirby than Logan Gilbert last year, I made it a point to say that it was more about Kirby’s greatness than anything Gilbert lacked so when Gilbert outclassed his teammate last year, I wasn’t exactly shocked. Instead of flipping their rankings, I simply elevated Gilbert to Kirby’s level and remain fully invested in both as foundational pieces to a fantasy rotation. Gilbert was able to find the extra strikeouts I projected for Kirby as his slider became one of the best in baseball (2nd to only Sonny Gray’s in Stuff+ at 146). If he can establish the curveball as a legit third pitch and/or mix in some of Kirby’s command without losing anything off the amazing slider, he is a Cy Young contender. Kirby isn’t just a command guy as his 106 Stuff+ is ranked 17th. The issue is that he lacks a true strikeout pitch to push his rate like Gilbert, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still find it and hell, it might even be the slider just like his rotation mate. I’m open to letting either headline my rotation.

Despite his continued downward trend in strikeout rate (-3 pts to 23%), Corbin Burnes still managed to put up an excellent season that landing him 9th among starters on the Auction Calculator. He countered the K% dip by also shaving 2 pts off his walk rate to just 6%, resulting in a 2.92 ERA/1.10 WHIP combo along with a career-high 15 Wins. The fact that his Swinging Strike rate (SwStr) actually pushed up a bit (+1 to 13%) offers some hope that his K% can push back up toward the 2023 mark, but barring a substantial jump in swinging strikes, it’s hard to see him returning to the 33% level we saw from 2019-2022 (16% SwStr). I’ll have more when he signs this winter. Jan. 2nd Update: Signed with ARI in a huge shocker! I love this move for the Diamondbacks and while it’s a perfectly fine landing spot for Burnes, it doesn’t change my outlook much on him. Even with the extended wall in left field of Camden Yards (which is being moved back in this offseason), Baltimore’s park still had a worse HR park factor (93) than Arizona’s Chase Field (86) so perhaps his new landing spot will push his HR9 back below 1.0 for the first time in four seasons.

I was big on Cole Ragans last year, slotting him 21st in my SP rankings and he did nothing to make me regret that decision with a true breakout season. He continued to improve his BB rate, but at 9% there is still room for improvement and if he is able to do that while sustaining his excellent 29% K rate then a sub-3.00 ERA is on the table. Mar. 19th Update: Sure, Crochet has more pure upside because of his insane K%, but I was stuck on having Crochet in this tier and not Ragans so I made the move to bring Ragans up. I have no problem letting him headline my rotation. I jumped him over Sale and Snell, too, because between the three, I think Ragans is the strongest bet for 170+ IP.

What a return to prominence for Chris Sale! His injury-addled 30s made it seem like his best days were behind him. He had just 298 IP in 3+ seasons since 2019 so there were no guarantees that he’d get back to 170+ innings in a season, let alone those innings being good enough to net his first Cy Young Award. Sale regained his groundball lean (+8 pts to 45% GB rate) and when paired with a beautiful 6% HR/FB rate, netted him the best HR/9 in baseball at just 0.46, a tick better than the 0.48 of Logan Webb. His core skills have remained great throughout his career so even if you don’t fully buy the HR suppression and have some concerns about his age, there are no real questions about his pure talent.

Mar. 12th Update: I originally included George Kirby in the Gilbert write-up as I usually just pair them up and know to take other when the first one goes, but that has changed with the shoulder inflammation that has sent him to the IL to start the season. He wanted to pitch through it and the team put the kibosh on that. I’m not fully out here, though. He’s been going in the 10th round of early Main Events (15-teamers) and that’s a deep enough discount for me to stash him for the first couple weeks of the season. That price puts him around the likes of Sandy Alcantara, Jack Flaherty, and Kodai Senga… in other words, guys with plenty of concern, so given that I’m not crazy concerned about this inflammation, sign me up to take the gamble on Kirby as of mid-March.

I originally had Blake Snell in the Aces tier before he signed with the Dodgers (slotted at 9) but it just made too much sense to put him with his new teammates and it’s not like dropping him 2 spots fundamentally alters how I feel about him. His extremely late signing with San Francisco (March 19th) essentially wrecked his first half as a pair of injuries limited him to just 6 starts through June… and 6 bad starts at that (9.51 ERA). He returned from the 2nd IL stint with back-to-back 1-hit outings which laid the foundation for an amazing second half during which he posted a 1.23 ERA/0.79 WHIP in 80.3 IP (including a no-hitter at CIN on Aug. 2nd). The up-and-down nature of even his best seasons scares off some at the draft table, but I just don’t know why I shouldn’t be interested in the guy who is 1st in K% and 2nd in ERA over the last 3 seasons (min. 400 IP) and now joining arguably the best org in baseball. I’d be remiss not to mention that his 11% BB rate slots him 21st in WHIP during that time, but it’s not like his 1.16 mark is damaging your bottom line.

The highly anticipated MLB debut of Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the mid-March South Korea series v. San Diego truly couldn’t have gone worse (1 IP/5 ER) and if you stopped watching the season there, you’d think he was a colossal bust for the Dodgers, but of course the season continued on and while a strained rotator cuff did eat up nearly 3 months of time, he was undoubtedly excellent in his remaining 17 starts, posting a 2.53 ERA/1.07 WHIP in 89 IP, tacking on another 18.7 IP in the playoffs (including another tough showing v. SD that he was able to avenge with 5 scoreless innings in the Game 5 clincher). All the elements are there for a monster second season with the biggest question being volume and we know LAD won’t just turn him (or any of their pitchers) loose for 200+ IP, but with health he should be able to reach something in the 140-160 IP range.

Tyler Glasnow did set another career-high in innings last year, but it was still just 134 innings, up 14 from his previous high set in 2023. Now 31 years old, it seems unlikely that he will all of a sudden become a bastion of health and start piling up 30-start seasons, but as the game moves further away from workhorse starters, it is a lot easier to take on these elite 20-start types and backfill the missed innings in-season if they are once again felled by injury. I always say to draft the player types who work best with your management style and if these high-risk/high-reward types like Glasnow are too much of a headache for you, then you should feel comfortable passing on them.

OK, Roki Sasaki is probably more than one step away because he doesn’t even have a major league team yet. The 23-year-old was posted for MLB teams at the outset of the Winter Meetings meaning he has 45 days to negotiate and figure out where he’s going to play. He has been so amazing during his four seasons in the NPB that I’m willing to slot him this high before he even signs with a team. He had a 2.02 ERA/0.88 WHIP combo in 415 IP with Chiba Lotte, establishing himself as the league’s best pitcher. A velo dip, an injury, and some skills degradation resulted in his worst season yet (2.35 ERA/1.04 WHIP — hilarious that those are the marks of his “worst” season). However, like Ohtani before him, Sasaki is subject to International FA rules which sharply limits the amount of money he can make with this move and as such, I don’t suspect the “down” season will hurt him during these negotiations. This is not a purely money-driven move for Sasaki, but more about coming to the best league in the world and seeing where he stacks up. I’ll have more when he signs.

Jan. 23rd Update: I mean, are we even surprised? Of all the Dodgers moves, this one just isn’t that shocking. It was close to a foregone conclusion coming into the offseason and even as they signed a bunch of other players it seemed like Sasaki would be the cherry on top. Nothing really changes in terms of how I see him for the year or where I’d draft him. There is always some risk with a player coming from overseas, but the talent is rich and he’s on the best team in the universe.

Mar. 20th Update: Yes, he is dropping after the start in Tokyo, but not because of it. I had him slated for a slight dip regardless as I just think there will be some volatility as essentially a one-pitch pitcher with that being a splitter, a notoriously inconsistent pitch even from those who wield it best. On a per-inning basis, we should see elite strikeout totals and probably even a good ERA, but there is some WHIP risk here even if he’s not paying the price for the extra base runners. And of course, we really don’t know what kind of volume the Dodgers will him this year.

I know Shohei Ohtani didn’t throw a single pitch in 2024 and has only once eclipsed 135 innings, but frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn. He doesn’t really need more than 120-130 innings to make a substantial impact on the mound so while I fully expect the Dodgers to limit him as he returns from TJ, I’m willing to take the plunge. Obviously, his SP ranking doesn’t really matter that much in leagues where you get both versions of him because he shouldn’t last beyond the 2nd or 3rd overall pick (he’s my #1), but there are still formats where he is split into hitter and pitcher versions and it’s those leagues where I’m still willing to invest a pretty high pick for the latter version. Mar. 12th Update: The Dodgers have slowed Ohtani’s trek toward getting back on the mound as they don’t need to rush him and there simply hasn’t been time for him to focus on it. As we’ve gotten more clarity on this, I’m pushing Ohtani-as-SP-only way down. Not every outlet splits Ohtani, but at the ones doing it, I’m skipping the SP version.

Signing with the New York Yankees didn’t change my ranking for Max Fried as I had mentally slotted him somewhere in the AL East already (BOS was my choice with Crochet going to NYY, but I did say the teams were interchangeable for those two on this podcast). Does an 8-year guarantee from New York assuage concerns over the forearm scare from the summer? I can’t say for sure and while he was a bit bumpy upon return from that IL stint (11 BB, 7.90 ERA in 3 gms), he smoothed out the control issues and looked like himself over the final 8 starts: 2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 19% K-BB in 52.7 IP. I generally like to allow a transition season for players signing massive deals and I will almost certainly employ that strategy with Fried.

Cleveland’s surprising run to the AL Central crown didn’t come via their normal dominance in starting pitching, though Tanner Bibee definitely held up his end of the bargain. After a few rocky starts early on that saddled him with a 4.91 ERA through 8 starts, he closed with a 3.04 ERA in his final 23 starts thanks to a 21% K-BB and 1.04 WHIP. Surprisingly he only went 10-7 during that run despite the amazing bullpen that picked up the slack for the lack of strong pitching behind Bibee. His fastball and curveball were both a bit better than 2023 and helped cover a bit of regression in his slider as he delivered a splendid follow-up to last year’s rookie breakout. I’ll take more of the same in 2025.

Is it lazy to say that Ryan and Bailey Ober are just the Spiderman pointing meme? They obviously get there a bit differently, but they arrive at the same spot with a great K-BB rate and WHIP and home runs largely driving their ERAs. Over the last 4 seasons, JR: 3.92 ERA/1.07 WHIP/22% K-BB in 470 IP | BO: 3.76 ERA/1.07 WHIP/20% K-BB in 471 IP.

Michael King’s amazing 2.95 ERA in his first full season as a starter is even more impressive when you remember that he fronted the league a month. Control issues in April (13% BB) led to a 5.00 ERA in 7 starts. He opened May with 13 shutout innings, kicking off a 5-month run as one of the best pitchers in the league posting a 2.42 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 21% K-BB in 137.7 innings. Looping in the end of his 2023 season, King has 38 starts of premium work as only Skubal, Sale, and Wheeler have a better ERA than King’s 2.76 mark in that time. He misses a ton of bats, shown he can take 30 turns in a season, and plays for a strong team that should put him in line for the wins needed to put up an elite fantasy season, add it all up and King might go from RP-to-ace in just two seasons.

Dylan Cease was back and better than ever as good as the best version we’ve seen thus far. I was tempted to keep the “better than ever” in there because of the career-best BB rate (9%) and we all desperately want that as low as possible for Cease, but it wasn’t his best K rate (29% in 2024 compared to his 32% career-high in 2021) and it wasn’t close to his best ERA as he managed an insane 2.20 mark in 2022 and “just” a 3.47 this past season. The control issues drive Cease’s ERA and WHIP volatility which generally leads me to treating him as a “buy the dip” kind of guy since I usually trust his skills to bring his ERA back toward his consistent mid-3.00s ERA indicators. I’m going against that inclination because while I don’t think he has necessarily outgrown that ERA volatility, I was thisclose to putting him in the Modern Workhorses tier as his 716 IP since 2021 are 7th most and his 891 strikeouts are far and away the highest (Burnes, 858 in 2nd).

If you want to see how Imanaga’s fate might play out, look no further than Joe Ryan’s profile. He has a similarly fantastic K-BB rate and WHIP while his ERA rests on the fate of his HR rate. You will not be shocked to learn that Ryan’s best ERA came when his HR rate was lowest (3.55 ERA w/a 1.2 HR9 in 2022). It spiked to a career-worst 1.8 in 2023 and sent his ERA up to an ugly 4.51, though still a solid 1.16 WHIP. A shoulder injury ended his season in early-August which makes his 31st SP ranking that much more impressive.

Shane McClanahan was on the fast track to becoming one of the best pitchers in the game before being felled by a second Tommy John surgery in August of 2023. That does give the extended rehab period which puts him on track for Spring Training, though obviously the Rays won’t just turn him loose with innings, either. As with Glasnow, I go into the McClanahan situation with my eyes wide open and an expectation of a heavily managed workload. Ideally, the Rays will do so with extended rests between outings as opposed to shortened starts all year (though I do expect 4-5 IP outings early on). Feb. 5th Update: We got some clarity during the Winter Meetings that they’ll be looking at “150-ish” innings from Sugar which would be fantastic and makes me even a bit more interested in him. Mar. 19th Update: Frick it, I’m pushing McClanahan back up. I’ve been agonizing over my Rays faves (Pep, Taj, and Ras as well) because of their new park and pushed ’em down a bit in the last update, but I’m just going to buy the talent and trust that they can find success even in a tougher home park, especially someone like Sugar Shane, who has ace potential.

An early season elbow injury cost Framber Valdez his chance at a third straight 30+ start season. He made the most of his 28 starts, though, dropping his ERA below 3.00 for the second time in three seasons (2.91) while also improving his WHIP for the third straight season (career-best 1.11). Three duds in his first eight starts off the IL pushed his ERA up to 3.99 before unleashing a run of 2.24 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 19% K-BB in his final 17 starts (109 IP). I still see Webb and Valdez very similarly, as bankable rocks who are among the stronger bets to give you 30 starts of quality work with the upside of a sub-3.00 ERA and great WHIP. Valdez was better last year, but I still can’t split them up. Over the last four seasons they are the embodiment of the Spiderman pointing meme: LW – 3.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 17% K-BB in 761 IP | FV – 3.08, 1.15, 16% in 710 IP. Take either with confidence.

Logan Webb’s 1.23 WHIP was a 4-year high, but it didn’t stop him from posting another quality workhorse campaign. His back-to-back 200+ IP seasons are a rarity in today’s game, and that volume – even with higher rates than 2021-23 (3.07 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) – was still plenty valuable. His strikeout rate is a negative among top tier pitchers, but the volume does help mitigate that downside as his 172 strikeouts were ranked 27th in the league. He had a distinct enough home/road split that skipping some starts away from San Francisco over the second half made sense, allowing managers to possibly curate rates more in line with his 2021-23 seasons. Like so many players, Webb has always been better at home, but the 1.47 WHIP on the road was definitely unexpected. All that said, I’m not drafting him as a home-only play, especially at this price, but if he falls into the same pattern again, I will accelerate my road sits for Webb much sooner than I did in ’24.

I see similarities between Pablo López and Castillo: strong K-BB, consistent track record of success, strong bet for 30+ starts, and a blossoming HR issue that gives him a wide range of expected ERAs. He suffered through 7 Duds, tied for 3rd-most in the league, accounting for 51% of season’s earned runs. This isn’t new, though, as his 20 Duds since 2022 are behind only Patrick Corbin (26) and Miles Mikolas (24) so slot him in that Nola/Castillo bucket. There is ERA upside if he can iron out the inconsistency, but I certainly wouldn’t bank on it and instead plan for a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA, good WHIP, and tons of Ks.

Can you be a bankable workhorse with a mid-4.00s ERA in two of the last four seasons? I think so as it describes Aaron Nola who many hail for his consistent output despite the elevated ERAs in 2021 and 2023. He has at least 32 starts in each of the last six seasons where that was possible with 2020 of course being the lone exception. Over that time, he has a 3.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 21% K-BB in an MLB-best 1265 IP, well above teammate Zack Wheeler’s 1207 in 2nd place. He was still a positive value pitchers in ’21 and ’23 because of his strong WHIP and strikeout totals. We’ve seen the variance even at his best so as he gets older (32 this year), that risk heightens a bit, but not enough to deter me from drafting him.

Luis Castillo’s early career home run issues have returned with a 1.3 HR9 over the last two seasons as he has become a flyball pitcher. His 19% K-BB rate still sits 11th (min. 300 IP) so the extra homers haven’t really hurt him. His velo dipped for a second straight season and he might just be a mid-3.00s ERA guy with a good WHIP and worthy bet for 30+ starts. He is kind of an AL version of Nola in that respect.

Zach Eflin is trying to evolve into a late-career workhorse. He couldn’t completely backup his breakout 2023, but he still had a solid 3.59 ERA/1.15 WHIP combo, including a sparkling 2.60 ERA with Baltimore after the trade. I know I’m hammering on everyone’s HR issues in this tier, but it is the throughline keeping them from reaching their ERA potential and Eflin fits right in. In fact, he hasn’t posted a sub-1.0 mark in any of his 9 seasons and with Baltimore moving the LF fence back in, season 10 probably won’t be the lucky one. This control artist profile does build a stable floor and the consistent volume allows their WHIP to make a bigger impact. Eflin is the bargain bin option from this tier so his extra risk compared to the others is mitigated by the lower price point.

An opening day hamstring injury and late season elbow tendinitis limited Justin Steele to just 135 innings last season, giving him at least 1 IL stint in each of his three seasons as a full-time starter. While he did take 30 turns in 2023, a 180-inning season has remained elusive for the 29-year-old lefty. The skills are there so his upside comes in volume potential. His 3.10 ERA is 9th among qualified starters over the last three seasons and while his 1.20 WHIP does sit 46th, it’s pushed up a good bit by the 1.35 from 2022 and he has made significant improvements each of the last two seasons, dropping to 1.17 in 2023 and just 1.10 last season. I wouldn’t go in expecting a full season of low-3.00s ERA and low-1.10s WHIP, but instead project around a 3.30s ERA/upper-1.10s WHIP knowing there is real upside to put together a special season.

Thanks to the development of his splitter, Bryce Miller made massive strides against lefties. He shaved his OPS down 254 points to .663 while also getting a bit better against righties (-37 pts to .512). While I believe in his gains, I don’t fully believe in the results as I just can’t ignore how much his .237 BABIP helped facilitate the 2.94 ERA. His flyball lean does make him more conducive to better than average BABIPs, but betting on a repeat of the 4th-lowest BABIP seems foolish. Put him down for a mid-3.00s ERA and low-1.10s WHIP… and if things break right, his first 200-inning season.

Zac Gallen was a fade for me last year as a classic playoff hangover case and while it’s hard to say his hamstring injury and modest output after he returned were definitely because of his 2023 workload, the results do check out. He had some walk issues after the hammy, but he closed strong with a 3.08 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 24% K-BB in his last seven starts. Missing the playoffs might have been a blessing in disguise for Gallen to get him a full offseason. There hasn’t been an overreaction to his tough season as he’s still a Top 40 starter (SP38) in winter drafts, a price point I’m willing to pay for him.

It was a tale of two halves for Sonny Gray with an excellent first half that fell apart in the second and ended with him on the IL for the final week. That sort of trajectory for a 35-year-old with injury issues throughout his career looks scary, but was it just home run volatility that fueled the disparate halves? Three multi-HR duds in the second half accounted for 47% of the earned runs over his final 67 innings, including 4 HRs in Atlanta out of the All-Star break. His K-BB was actually a tick better in the second half at 25% so virtually all of the regression came from the longball (1H: 0.7 HR9 | 2H: 1.8). St. Louis appears to be entering a change phase with their big veterans on the trade block, including Gray so if he gets moved we can re-assess how his new home will impact him. It is worth noting that he had a massive home/road ERA split last year (2.79/5.20) as six of his seven Duds came outside of St. Louis, including all three of those multi-homer crushers in the second half, but I don’t put a ton of stock into that when judging Gray going forward. Pay for 150 strong innings and take anything north as a bonus.

On a positive note, Freddy Peralta put together a second straight full season with a career-high 32 starts. There weren’t too many more positives after that. OK, he did remain a strikeout force (28%), but his walk (9%) and hit (7.4) rates hit 3-year highs while 2023’s home run problem stuck around (1.4) resulting in a modest 50th SP ranking. He is kind of this tier’s Dylan Cease, although the market isn’t really offering much of a dip to buy… and understandably so. He still has a great fastball and that strikeout foundation so if he can get his HR rate back in check, that sub-3.00 ERA from 2021 is still well within his range of outcomes. Pay for a mid-3.00s ERA and high-1.10s WHIP with a boatload of strikeouts.

Jack Flaherty got his groove back in Detroit, looking like a frontliner for the first time since his 2019 breakout season. Injuries play a major role in his struggles from 2021-23 (we’ll throw out 2020 because who cares about that?!), averaging just 86 IP/season with a high of 144 that came with an awful 4.99 ERA/1.58 WHIP combo. Improved command across his 3-pitch arsenal led to a complete overhaul in results, yielding a career-best 24% K-BB in 162 innings. He definitely wasn’t the same guy after the trade to the Dodgers, dropping that K-BB from 28% to 18% as everything was just a bit worse across the board. He was still competent in LA (3.58/1.28) and better than the guy we’d seen in 2021-23, but it’s fair to question how bankable this growth is for 2025 and beyond. Of course, he still has to sign somewhere, and that will no doubt give us more clarity on where to place expectations. Look for an update once he lands. Feb. 4th Update: Well, well, well, look who’s back! The market didn’t quite materialize as Flaherty had likely hoped so he’s back in Detroit on a nice 2-year deal that looks good for both parties. He will make $25 mil this year and get a crack at free agency again next year if he wants. If he makes 15+ starts this year and wants to stay in Detroit, he’ll make $20 mil next year. We saw how successful he was there last year and I don’t really have any reason to believe that will change a ton as long as he remains healthy.

Carlos Rodón was mostly back on track last year, but the pesky home run issues from 2023 remained as his 1.6 HR9 was 4th-worst among qualified starters. His 122 Stuff+ was baseball’s best and his 97 Location+ was tied for baseball’s worst with Framber Valdez, Jose Quintana, and Sean Manaea. Everything comes down to health with Rodón and if he’s healthy, there is a path to improving that Location+ and shaving down his homer rate. His ADP of SP40 means he doesn’t have to be better than last year to payoff so if you’re comfortable buying a strikeout stud with Wins upside and ratio risk, bid confidently.

Wow, what a rookie campaign for Spencer Schwellenbach. He leveraged a six (!) pitch arsenal into a fantastic 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 21% K-BB over 124 innings. It’s hard to poke holes in anything Schwellenbach did last year which is why the market is so hot on him for 2025 as he’s currently a Top 100 pick. A deep arsenal, excellent control, legit swing-and-miss, and residence on one of the top teams are all major positives and give credence to such a high pick. The only real pushback I can muster is that it’s still just 21 starts and the league could tighten up against him the second time around, but even that would be unlikely to result in a major falloff. In fact, the projections build in that backslide with them all coalescing around a 3.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 18% K-BB.

I’d rather go for Hunter Brown over Greene even at essentially the same price (7-pick split in ADP). I was big on Brown last year and by the end of the season, I felt pretty good about it, but he was popping up on waiver wires in a bunch of leagues throughout April after a 9.78 ERA in his first six starts. While the 9 ER in just 2/3 of an inning at KC played a massive role, there were two other duds that made him a viable cut in some shallower leagues where you have to consistently burn and churn to keep up. He wasn’t immediately fixed in May, failing to go more than 5 IP in any of his first three starts with 7 BB in 14 IP, but 17 Ks and a more palatable (but still shaky) 4.40 ERA offered some encouragement or the Brown believers like me. His 10th start of the season was his first true gem of the year and spurred a 2.31 ERA over his final 22 starts, good for 2nd to only Paul Skenes’s 1.90 ERA from May 22nd through the end of the year. A deep arsenal, the 15th-best K-BB since 2023 (18%), and residence on one of the smartest teams in the league keeps me fully bought in on Brown as he enters his third full season. I still think there is premium upside here where he pushes 185+ innings and 200+ Ks which would put in him position to notch 15+ Wins.

Based on my breakdown of him last year, this should be my mea culpa on Hunter Greene as he more than halved his HR rate en route to a wonderful 2.75 ERA/1.02 WHIP in a career-high 150 innings. So then what gives on this ranking? I’m sorry, I just don’t buy it. I’m struggling to see what tangible changes he made to his profile that facilitated his HR improvements. At his core, he Is the same guy from 2023 as evidenced by just 7-point swing in SIERA (and 2024’s was the higher one, hilariously enough!). If you’ve followed my work for any amount of time, you know I’m reluctant to just declare someone lucky or unlucky and move on, but the three biggest luck-driven factors that we look at for pitchers went massively in Greene’s favor last year. He paired that HR improvement with a career-best .237 BABIP and 81% LOB rate. I wouldn’t be foolish enough to suggest he had nothing to do with those improvements, especially someone with stuff as good as his, but without any fundamental changes in his profile, it’s really hard to bet on a repeat. He is still just 25 years old so he’s very much still in the growth phase but I’m scared of anyone with a HR issue pitching in Cincinnati and I’m just not willing to pay the premium on Greene. Mar. 19th Update: I know I’m a bit of a Greene hater, but I promise it’s only in the fantasy context. I would love for him to prove me wrong and I’ll gladly eat an October L… that said, the HRs are back in spring (1.7 HR9, 20% HR/FB) and that is exactly what I’m afraid happening in the regular season, too.

Health was the only major hangup in Bryan Woo’s sophomore season, but it was substantial as he managed just 121 innings because of elbow and hamstring injuries. He did improve on his biggest issue from 2023, though, dropping his platoon split from a horrendous 433 points to just 64 points, improving massively against lefties while remaining strong versus righties. Dropping his BB% versus lefties from 13% to 3% paired with a 62-point BABIP improvement drove the success as his arsenal wasn’t that different from what we saw in 2023. The talent is obvious and rich, but it’s an open question if he can make it 150 innings in a season right now.

It was a breakout season for Ryan Pepiot, slowed only by a bruised left leg and right knee infection, limiting him to 130 innings. Let’s be honest, the Rays probably would’ve found a way to limit him to something near that total anyway and at least it wasn’t anything arm-related that cost him time. He finished the season healthy and didn’t allow more than 3 ER in any of his final 14 starts (only once allowing more than that in terms of unearned runs). He should be in line for 30 starts this season and with his elite stuff (116 Stuff+, 8th in MLB) that could be enough to generate 200 strikeouts.

Shane Baz missed nearly two full years of time in the majors with his last start before TJ surgery coming on July 10th, 2022 and his return to the bigs coming on July 5th, 2024. You wouldn’t know he was out that long from the results, though. His strikeouts weren’t on par with what we’d seen in his 2021-22 samples at 22%, but even that showed improvement down the stretch with a 25% in his final six starts. His 115 Stuff+ was still elite so even if he hadn’t enjoyed the late strikeout surge, I still wouldn’t be too worried about them returning to form in 2025. He appears set up for the breakout we’ve been waiting to see for a little while now. He totaled 118 innings between the majors and minors so hopefully the Rays are comfortable with him logging around 150 this year. I remember first seeing him at the Arizona Fall League back in 2019 and instantly falling in love, but I’ve softened on him in the subsequent five years, leaving me torn on him coming into what should be his first full… or at least full-ish season. I prefer all of his rotation mates this side of Zack Littell and simply haven’t been open to paying the price at the draft table (SP61 in the Main Event).

It is hard to remember given where we are now, but Jared Jones was the Pirates pitcher everyone was gushing about in April and May of last year before Skenes arrived. He had a 2.68 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in eight starts prior to Skenes’s callup and was the talk of baseball. He and Skenes became one of the best 1-2 punches for about two months before a strained lat essentially ruined the second half of his season. It cost him two months on the shelf and then he had just a 5.87 ERA in his final six starts after returning. Finishing the season healthy and upright, even if the results left something to be desired, is an encouraging sign and we have no reason to believe he isn’t fully ready to go for 2025. Two elite pitches and a couple of show-me offerings to supplement them make Jones one of the most intriguing young arms in the game. Mar. 19th Update: Elbow discomfort cost him last Spring Training start and he’s now seeking 2nd opinions… that’s not great. I’m definitely tapping the brakes and might hit another drop on him if we don’t get good news here before my Main Event on Saturday.

Cristopher Sánchez broke out in the second half of 2023 leveraging his excellent control and extreme groundball tilt to finish the season strong despite a hideous 22% HR/FB rate making him more homer prone than expected. In his first full season, he sliced that HR/FB rate down to 9% and landed 3rd behind only Chris Sale and Logan Webb in HR rate with 0.54 in 182 innings. He dropped four points off his strikeout rate despite essentially the same swinging strike rate which feels mostly like a range of outcomes thing as opposed to skills degradation. Even as a big fan of his, I view his strikeouts as more of a bonus than an expectation. I’m paying for a good volume of quality ratios with strong win potential as part of the Phillies. If he can elevate back to the mid-20s with his K%, then I’ve got a real gem on my hands. If not, I’m still happy with my mid-rotation arm. Mar. 19th Update: It’s always tough when one of your guys absolutely explodes in Spring Training and the price soars. I certainly wasn’t alone on Sánchez, of course, but now that he’s throwing upper-90s with a 17% SwStr and 26% K-BB in spring, the bandwagon is overflowing!! I’m staying on board, let’s ride with our king heading into his second full season on a great time with some newfound swing-and-miss stuff to go with his excellent control and HR9 improvements from 2024.

Shota Imanaga had a fantastic MLB debut, looking like one of baseball’s best through his first 13 starts (1.89 ERA/0.99 WHIP/22% K-BB in 76 IP). We knew the splitter was good, but his fastball was the key to that brilliant run. Batters eventually figured it out and the home run worry that was a concern from his NPB days came to fruition as he’d post just 4 HR-free games from June 21st on, a span of 16 starts. His HR rate more than doubled, going from 0.8 in those first 13 starts to 1.9 (!!) in the final 16. An excellent 1.05 WHIP in that second stretch helped him to a 3.70 ERA despite that obscene HR rate. The WHIP is the draw here as I can’t see better than a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA without substantial improvement in his HR rate. He’s one step away, but it’s a big step.

Reese Olson has impressed in two partial seasons with the Tigers, putting together a 3.75 ERA/1.15 WHIP in 216 innings. Both his strikeout and walk rates are a bit better than average at 23% and 7%, respectively, slotting 16% K-BB rate at 59th out 112 pitchers with at least 200 innings during that time. His K% did dip slightly from 24% to 22% despite an extra tick of swinging strike rate at 13%, hinting at some upside there going forward. Boosting his GB rate 8 points to 51% while his HR/FB rate halved to 7% was instrumental in his 0.6 HR9. While it’s hard to bet on another 7%, if he continues to keep the ball down while turning up the strikeouts, he could continue to shave down his ERA (3.99 in 2023; 3.53 in 2024). He suffered a 2-month shoulder issue in the summer, though he returned for three shortened starts and nine playoff innings, so he enters Spring Training fully healthy. He’s priced fairly after pick-250 in late-February drafts making him a solid breakout pick if you believe in what we’ve seen thus far.

Seth Lugo continues to make the Mets look silly. Their refusal to let him start was a big reason behind his departure to San Diego where he enjoyed a solid return to the rotation in 2023. And then everything came together beautifully last year with Kansas City, en route to a 2nd place finish in the Cy Young race. Cutting his HR/FB rate nearly in half (-6 pts to 7%) and having the league’s best defense behind him fueled his elite season. The ratios are almost certain to rise, the question is how much, and I’d probably look to his 2023 numbers as a guide (3.57/1.20). Meanwhile, even if KC has another strong season, he likely won’t notch another 16 wins. A decade ago, he’d be a Top 100 pick this year coming off such a great season, but I’ve been very impressed to see his price sitting in the 180s throughout the winter.

Can Yusei Kikuchi take what he learned in Houston with him to LA? We asked the same of Tyler Anderson back in 2023 and he wasn’t even leaving California! The answer in Anderson’s first year was a resounding “no”, but he did rebound last year. Obviously, Anderson’s experience doesn’t influence Kikuchi’s and it’s not like there’s a ton to remember for Kikuchi as it was primarily “throw more sliders and fewer curves”. I think the bigger question is whether that change was actually behind the success or did he just run hot with his new club? He did generate more Ks as an Astro, jumping 6 points to 32% K%, but otherwise a 99-point dip in BABIP was the key driver behind his success.

OK, I don’t want to oversimplify it that much… he also generated a lot more groundballs (+5 pts to 46%) and stranded more of the runners he did allow (+5 pts to 76%) and even dented his HR rate a tiny bit – dropping it from 1.3 to 1.2. Was that because of more sliders, some run-good, or a mix of both? It’s probably the latter and as long as he’s allowing homers at a 1.2 clip or higher, the volatility will remain a part of his profile especially as he enters his mid-30s (entering his age-34 season).

Twas the classic tale of two halves for Tanner Houck as he made the All-Star game with a remarkable 2.54 ERA/1.03 WHIP in 117 IP before crashing back to Earth with a 4.23/1.35 combo in 62 IP after the break. His skills fell apart, too, as his K-BB% dropped 10 points to just 8% and his HR9 jumped over 2x to 0.9 HR9. The falloff has pushed his price into the 200s so if you believe he can recapture some of the first half magic, it’s not too expensive to take the shot. His skills have bounced around throughout his career as he’s yo-yoed between the rotation and bullpen, but the one constant has been his ability to keep the ball down and limit homers. That is a nice foundation to build upon, especially if he can get back to the 13% swinging strike rate we saw in 235 IP from 2021-23. It was down to 10% last year. There is upside… just know that there is also a wide range of potential outcomes.

Ronel Blanco did run an MLB-best .220 BABIP (including a season debut no-hitter) en route to a splendid 2.80 ERA/1.09 WHIP combo in 167.3 IP as a 30-year-old. On its face, that does scream “fluke!” as I wouldn’t project anyone to repeat such a low BABIP, let alone a 31-year-old with 226 MLB innings, but I do think there is something to the difficulty that batters have at squaring him up consistently. He posted a 6.7 H9 in 190 innings and 7.1 in 407 minor leagues all told. Homers and walks were his biggest issue in the minors, and both were present during this breakout season: 1.2 HR9, 10% BB. Without elite hit suppression, we should be looking at a high-3.00s/low-4.00s ERA with an OK WHIP, decent Ks, and strong chance at wins as part of the Astros.

I really wish we could’ve seen Clarke Schmidt stay healthy last year. The half we did get was so good that it would’ve been fun to see if he could’ve put it all together for another 30+ turns. We saw that cutter take another step and help him shave nearly 200 points off his OPS v. lefties, giving him a near-equal platoon (44 pts) after posting a 193-point platoon split in 2023. While the lat strain did eat up three months in the middle of the season, he was able to pitch in September and the playoffs which is always encouraging even if the postseason didn’t go all that well for him. How they get there is different, but I see his output similarly to Cristopher Sánchez: good ratios on a great team with high win upside and a decent-to-good K output. Mar. 19th Update: Schmidt couldn’t dodge the injury bug that is just decimating the Yankees rotation as some shoulder soreness cropped up as he works towards being ready for the season. It’s not as severe as his rotation-mates, but his opening start is in doubt and I’m just taking a more sober look at him as a whole so some of this dip would’ve come even if he was on track for opening week. I was just a bit too high on Schmidt.

It is unfair to simply look at Bowden Francis’s .211 BABIP, say “he can’t do that again!”, and be done with it. He has bankable control, sitting at 6% in 140 IP when you add in his 2023 numbers, and that’s a very useful foundational skill. That said, his strikeout rate is just a tick above league average at 23% and his 1.5 HR9 is downright awful. He also had the 12th highest flyball rate at 47% (tied for 5th highest when you account for ties) so it’s hard to see the homers going anywhere without some major changes. It is worth noting that the flyball lean does play a positive role in the hit suppression so he might still be among the BABIP leaders, but I almost think he needs to lead the league or be in the Top 5 to continue generating success at a fantasy-viable level and it’s too volatile of a stat to confidently project that. In short, Francis scares me and as such, I can’t see him landing on many – if any – of my teams this spring.

Ranger Suárez was lefty Houck last year with two markedly different halves. He was dialed in for 114 innings in the first half, posting a 2.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 19% K-BB en route to a 10-4 record. His success was “over and out” after that (get it? man, that was a terrible joke!), though, as a back injury ate up a month and limited him to just 8 starts during which he had a 5.65 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and 11% K-BB in 37 IP. This isn’t new. Suárez is usually good for one electric run a year, the problem is timing it and potentially getting stuck with some of the off starts when he inevitably fades. The market knows what’s up and he is priced properly for what he offers.

Uh oh, are the Mets Metsing? I know the whole “Mets are gonna Mets” thing is a bit trite and probably pretty tiresome for Mets fans, but it also has to be super frustrating to watch two key arms – one stud and one depth piece – go down immediately after Spring Training starts, putting a rain cloud over what was otherwise an amazing offseason that drummed up a ton of hype for them. Sean Manaea joins Frankie Montas on the shelf, suffering an oblique strain that will put on the IL to start the season. A 6-to-8-week timetable from the late-February date of the injury likely eats up the first month of the season and should yield a substantial drop to his 180 ADP.

Putting the injury aside for a moment to focus on his excellent 2024, Manaea decided to copy Chris Sale’s mechanics to great effect, posting a 3.02 ERA/0.95 WHIP/18% K-BB in his final 110 innings and that was even with a dud season finale where he allowed 5 ER in 3.7 innings at Milwaukee. Even before the injury, I was little worried about how bankable the success of these mechanical changes would be in a second season because it can be hard to find that groove again after five months off and now this injury essentially takes him off my draft in the NFBC universe (no IL slots in those leagues). I’m not completely against taking a chance well after pick-200 in a league with IL slots, but he’s not a target.

I know they had the Cy Young winner on their team, but you could make a decent case that Reynaldo López was the Braves MVP last year. He was so incredibly flexible for them throughout the year all the while continuing to put up excellent start after excellent start. At one point, he was slated for a 2-start week eight times in a row and never made the second start. The reasons included weather, injury, pitchers returning, random call-ups, and extra rest. It became a running meme on the podcast as we wondered each week how ReyLo would lose his Sunday start. His maneuverability was no doubt a great weapon for manager Brian Snitker. We likely won’t see another 1.99 ERA this year, which is fine, we don’t put that kind of expectation on anyone. Something in line with his 3.58 SIERA would be just fine with plenty of strikeouts and great win potential on one of the league’s best teams.

No, Tobias Myers very likely won’t post another 3.00 ERA in 138 innings as he did in a scintillating rookie season but saying that put you on the sturdiest limb on the tree. He ran a reliever-esque 81% LOB rate to maximize his solid-average skills and push that ERA a full run lower than his 3.99 SIERA. His 16% K-BB was propped up by his 6% BB rate and the 9% swinging strike rate doesn’t offer much for his 22% K rate to improve and there is some danger of falling below 20%. As such, I think my initial ranking was a bit too high at 59 so I’ve made a pretty sharp adjustment downward for the 26-year-old sophomore. That’s still ahead of his ADP which has him going as the 92nd SP off the board because while there are concerns, I believe in the control and think Milwaukee will allow him to pile up innings barring a total meltdown. Mar. 19th Update: Myers suffered an oblique injury that could cost him the first month of the season, though the Brewers have said publicly that they were encouraged by the MRI. The tough part is that volume was a key part of the appeal with Myers so missing time really dings him for me. I’m certainly not drafting him as a stash in the NFBC universe and I’d likely need a lotttt of IL spots to take him non-NFBC formats. Leagues with 2-3 IL spots are too tight to stash Myers.

Pardon me Osvaldo Bido, I was not familiar with your game! The Pirates castoff amped up his arsenal en route to a 105 Stuff+, good for 29th among 186 pitchers with at least 40 innings as an SP (9th highest when accounting for ties). It wasn’t just one great pitch, either, he had four offerings that he used at least 10% of the time toting a 107 or better mark but his poor changeup (79 Stf+) brought him down a bit. Things were reversed when it came to his Location+ metrics, with the four Stuff+ monsters all failing to reach 100 – including an 81 for 4-seamer and 70 (!) for sinker – while changeup hit 100 on the button. I’ll take the strong stuff foundation and hope the A’s have a plan to help him command things better to shave down that 10% BB, especially as he expands workload. He had 111 total innings when you add in his RP work in the majors and 48 MiLB innings so I don’t really see any reason they can’t push him for 140-150 innings if he looks anything like he did down the stretch in 2024. With a post-350 ADP, Bido can’t really hurt us even if things don’t come together this year because we can cut and move on very easily.

After missing essentially two full seasons to injury, Luis Gil returned with an excellent campaign that netted Rookie of the Year despite leading baseball with 77 walks. You can live with those kind of control issues when you also tie for the 2nd-best AVG against (.188) and miss bats at a 27% clip. Cracks in the armor started to show during the second half with the bill coming due on those walks, exacerbated by a 1.6 HR9 in his final 15 starts after just a 0.6 mark in his first 14. This is a high wire act that will be tough to stomach if we don’t see any control improvements in sophomore season. A heavy flyball lean in Yankee Stadium only makes it scarier, too. As much as I loved Gil last year, I’m not blind to the flaws here and they can’t just be glossed over. Thankfully, the market realizes that, too, and has priced him fairly with an ADP of 192. Mar. 3rd Update: A high-grade lat strain will shut Gil down for at least 6 weeks and of course he will have to build back up from there. This takes Gil completely off my board in the NFBC universe (no IL slots). I’m at least open to taking the shot if the price plummets in a league with IL slots, but I’m treading very carefully here. Mar. 6th Update: Now we’ve got word that he’s out for a minimum of 3 mos. putting him back sometime in June at the earliest as he’ll have to ramp back up after that. I’m barely interested in him in IL leagues now.

I’m buying back in on Gavin Williams this year. He couldn’t follow up his solid rookie campaign (3.29 ERA/1.26 WHIP) which wasn’t terribly surprising as his 4.61 SIERA made it clear that he wasn’t as good as that ERA suggested. Last season he put up a 4.86 ERA with a 4.19 SIERA, showing minor walk and HR rate improvements. The 25-year-old has a deep arsenal and enough swing-and-miss upside to be a strikeout asset. If the command and control continues to improve as I believe they can, Williams could take a substantial step forward in his third year. Mar. 19th Update: The prices I paid for Williams this winter: 265, 237, 222, 219, 199, and I’m staring down the barrel of a Top 150 pick if I want him in my Main Event draft this weekend. I’m not necessarily afraid of that rising price point as it puts him around Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi, and Kodai Senga, all guys I have ranked below him, it’s just that I have to be more intentional to get him whereas in the 200s, there was more flexibility and I could feel comfortable pushing him a round or two to acquire other needs. I’m interested, but I won’t force it as there are still many great pitchers I love on the board that this new price point.

I think every Rays pitcher would be 7-10 spots higher if they were still pitching in the Trop. Shifting from one of baseball’s best pitcher parks to a minor league stadium modeled after Yankee Stadium is a sharp change, so I just have to tamp down my excitement on these guys, including one of my favorite rising arms: Taj Bradley. A devastatingly bad August spoiled his numbers a bit as his ERA rose from 2.71 to 4.35 thanks to his 10.41 ERA, 2.02 WHIP in five starts – one of which was actually a baseline quality start which tells you how horrendous the other four were. He rebounded with a 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in September but ran out of time before he could push his season ERA back below 4.00, ending with a 4.11 in 138 IP. That workload plus another 11 IP in Triple-A puts him in line to throw a full season this year (162+ IP, which is what it takes to qualify for the ERA title).

Back to the park to close this out, Steinbrenner Field had a 150 HR park factor last year in the Florida State League. I don’t know how to translate a Low-A park factor for major leagues, but I don’t think it’s crazy to believe that if Low-A guys are crushing bombs like that, the big leaguers won’t have much trouble doing so as well. Yankee Stadium is 3rd in HR park factor at 119 and this a replica in warmer, more humid weather. Another sneaky issue is rain. Will Bradley and the other Rays starters face more shortened outings if the rain comes on strong in the 3rd-4th of outings and lasts long enough to get them removed from the game? All in all, I’m just really torn because I love their rotation on paper and in the Trop, but less so in Steinbrenner Field. I’m still drafting them if the price is right, but I’m unlikely to load up multiple shares of them across my various leagues.

Grant Holmes is a 3-time Top 100 prospect who took a decade between his first appearance on one of those lists and his MLB debut, but perhaps it was worth the wait as he excelled in a swingman role and now has a chance to be a full-time starter in 2025. I give him the edge over Ian Anderson to hold his role when Spencer Strider returns a few weeks into the season (assuming Strider stays on his current trajectory). A pair of swing-and-miss breaking balls delivered a spicy 16% swinging strike and that wasn’t just built off his relief work as he actually missed more bats in his seven starts (K%: 28% as SP; 21% as RP). His slider was 8th in SwStr (min. 300 thrown) at 25% and his curve was 2nd at 24% (min. 220 thrown) which gives him a clear strikeout weapon against each handedness while he sets everything up with a solid 95 mph fastball. It’s a much more ready-made arsenal than Anderson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors for two years so unless Holmes just falls apart, I can’t see how he’d lose his role when Strider comes back.

MacKenzie Gore appeared to be breaking out through his first 15 starts with a 3.26 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 21% K-BB in 80 IP. Yes, that WHIP was bad, but the ERA and K-BB had us excited and a .373 BABIP was a big part of that WHIP surge. The BABIP persisted over his next 10 starts, sitting at .369, as the skills also deteriorated, yielding a vomit-inducing 7.09 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, and 4% K-BB in 46 IP. I don’t know if he just hit a wall or was tipping pitches or simply just wasn’t pitching well during that lull, but he rebounded to close on a high note and the BABIP even cooperated, too! Over his final 7 starts, he had a 1.55 ERA and 0.92 WHIP as the K-BB rate surged back up to 21% while the BABIP sat at just .229 in the 41 IP of work.

Add it all up and it was his first full season (166 IP) and first time under a 4.00 ERA (3.90), but the 1.42 WHIP was 3rd worst among qualified starters. I’d be more concerned about the WHIP if it was his patented control issues (career 10%), but I can live with a 9% BB rate – which just so happened to be a career-best – and as I’ve mentioned repeatedly throughout this profile, it was that silly BABIP. The elements are here for yet another step in 2025, but even if you believe he can improve the WHIP, you should still draft guys who can protect him there as even a breakout season could include a high-1.20s mark.

I really want to like Brandon Pfaadt, but I struggle to get past his two big problems: lefties and homers. And those are separate issues because while lefties definitely contribute to the HR issue, righties hit just as many. He has a 112-point career platoon split in OPS (.830 vL) and even his big improvements v. righties in 2024 (-223 pts in OPS, down to .635) couldn’t save him because he still allowed 12 HRs to them in 375 PA (12 in 385 PA vL, too). His best pitch by Stuff+ is the slider by a mile (121, next best is the 98 four-seamer) and that’s just not going to be his solution to figuring out lefties so unless we see major strides with the changeup or curve, I’m failing to see the path forward. Meanwhile, his 65% LOB rate was the 2nd-worst among qualified starters last year which feels unlucky against a 72% league average, but when you allow gobs of homers, the leaves you susceptible to a below average LOB rate. I see the 3.65 SIERA and as I mentioned earlier, I want to like Pfaadt because I was in on him as a prospect, but until something develops to start combating lefties, I’m likely to fade him relative to the market.

Michael Soroka has pitched just 126 innings in five seasons since his 2019 breakout (2.68 ERA/1.11 WHIP), battling an endless string of injuries that even ate up two full seasons in 2021-22. Nearly 2/3rds of those innings came with the White Sox last year and while the results weren’t terribly impressive (4.74/1.38), it was nice to see him pitch with a modicum of regularity, at least in the first half. A shoulder strain did eat up two months in the second half, but he got back in time to finish the season on the mound and dominated in three multi-inning relief appearances during September: 13 Ks, 0 BB, 0 ER, 2 H in 7.3 IP. Now a National, he has the inside track on Washington’s 5th starter role and while I wish both he and DJ Herz could get spots, don’t let your upset about Herz lead you to completely overlook Soroka in deeper formats.

Soroka is still entering just his age-27 season which is kind of remarkable given everything he’s been through and there is a bit of upside here, especially if he can regain any of the control that made him a stud in that 2019 season (6% BB). He was sitting at 95 mph in his Spring Training debut on March 1st, striking out 3 in 3 hitless innings against St. Louis. I will be tracking Soroka throughout spring to see if there’s something to this as he works toward securing that rotation spot. I will reiterate that this is purely a super deep league play for now, but if the velo sustains and we see a walk rate more in line with 2019 than 2024 (13%), there could even be some 12-team viability here. We’re a long from that at this juncture, though. Mar. 6th Update: He looked even better in today’s start, ripping 96 mph heaters past hitters at the top of the zone and then getting them off balance with sliders when they were looking for heat. In all, he went 4 IP with 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, and 6 Ks! Still a long way to go in Spring Training, but the early results are remarkably encouraging and Soroka’s zooming up my board.

Casey Mize has a rotation spot and has looked sharp in Spring Training (29% K-BB, 18% SwStr and pitching later today as I write this on March 12th), could it finally be the time for the former #1 overall pick to emerge? I’m willing to take a shot that is both with sharp spring and the recent success of pitching development for this Tigers org. He needs to maintain some of this newfound swing-and-miss that we’ve seen during his electric spring (36% K) as a meager 18% K rate in his 291 IP has been a big reason why he has a pedestrian 4.36 ERA/1.30 WHIP output. Mid-to-high 90s heaters atop the zone and fall off the table splitters are driving the spring success. I believe both elements can stick around in the regular season and drive his K rate to the mid-20s which paired with his already-strong control would give him a chance to post ratios in line with his 2021 (3.71 ERA/1.14 WHIP), but actually earn the ERA (4.45 SIERA, 4.71 FIP) this time around!

Kris Bubic was sneaky deece out of the bullpen during the second half last year, posting a 2.67 ERA/1.02 WHIP in 30 IP with a 28% K-BB rate. OK, maybe that’s more than sneaky deece, that’s just outright dope as hell. Pair that with his glimpse of goodness for three starts back in 2023 before his Tommy John surgery (21% K-BB, 15% SwStr) and it might time to see Bubic fully deliver on his prospect hype. Don’t forget, he made our list back in 2020 at 110 and now fully healthy with his command in check and newfound swing-and-miss in tow, this could be a true breakout campaign for the 27-year-old. While he doesn’t have a ton of recent volume, I’m not sure the Royals would have to severely limit him as he’s reached about 130 IP twice as a major leaguer and ideally he can at least get back there, if not push for a new career-high.

Even though my Gold Digging article (post-300 ADP gems) is nearly a month old at this point (written on Feb 7th v. this being the Mar. 3rd update of the SP ranks), my opinion on Hayden Wesneski hasn’t really changed so I’ll insert that write-up here for now: We will cap it off with one more Sporer fave I’m staying committed to this year. I took a fat L on Wesneski in 2023 as he lost his starting role by June, posting a 4.63 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 89 innings. He was primarily a reliever again last season (7 starts, 21 relief appearances), improving his ratios a good bit (3.86/1.14) despite continuing to struggle with HRs (2.0 in ’23; 1.6 in ’24). Now he joins one of the savviest teams in the league, reinvigorating my interest in him. The Astros aren’t shy about enacting a plan for pitchers when they get them on the team. I hope they have something in store for Wesneski to lean on his sweeper and start cutting into the homers, so I’ll be meticulously watching him in Spring Training to see if they are able to recapture the 2022 version (2.18/0.94) or if it’s more of the same guy we’ve seen in 2023-24.

Mitch Keller had a weird 2023 season where his strikeout rate surged 6 pts to 26% despite just a 1-point uptick in swinging strike rate to a modest 10%. Meanwhile, his walk rate dropped 2 points to 7% as he shaved 15 points off his WHIP to 1.25 but raised his ERA 30 pts to 4.21 in a career-high 194 IP. I just didn’t know what to make of it but felt that if he could improve his 1.2 HR9, that ERA could drop back below 4.00. Well, that did not happen… neither the HR9 nor the ERA improvement. Additionally, the K% gains didn’t hold which wasn’t surprising and the end result was pretty disappointing season: 4.25 ERA/1.30 WHIP/15% K-BB in 178 IP. Hey, at least he remained a volume force, though you probably didn’t want the extra innings after a while. A platoon issue (94 pts worse in OPS vL), a meager K%, and just too many hits allowed year-after-year leave me cold when it comes to drafting Keller.

I like Reid Detmers more than most, but I have pulled back a bit and dropped him in the rankings after realizing that I wasn’t drafting him as a Top 80 pitcher in multiple drafts so far this season. The fact is, I don’t need to pay that price so while I am open to going out and getting my guys even ahead of ADP, it’s become clear to me that 79 was just too high of a ranking. His raw skill is evident, but his volatility has left a bad taste in the mouths of those who’ve rostered him the last two years. He has one of the biggest splits between his K-BB% and ERA ranks over the last two seasons. Among the 92 pitchers with at least 230 IP, he slots 36th in K-BB with a solid 17% mark but then drops to 90th in ERA at 5.30, which also happens to be 3rd-worst among the sample. Only Taj Bradley’s 56-point split between his two rankings is worse while Brandon Pfaadt ties Detmers at 54. The key link between all 3? HR machines. Detmers’ 1.4 is the best of the trio (Pfaadt 1.5, Bradley 1.7), though things took a sharp turn in 2024, spiking to 1.9 in 87 IP (plus a 2.1 in 78 IP at AAA!!). Even just getting back to 2023’s 1.2 HR9 would be massive for Detmers, but absent that kind of improvement it’ll be tough for Detmers to turn things around.

Let’s run it back one more time with Tylor Megill! Injuries have cleared a path for him to start the season in the rotation, though he hasn’t been given a spot just yet. The 29-year-old can still miss a ton of bats and he’s even flashed some premium control this spring with a 5% BB rate and it’d be huge if he was closer to that mark than the 10% we’ve seen the last two seasons. He cut his homers below 1.0 for the first time last year at 0.9 which helped him to a 4.04 ERA, but too many base runners left him with 1.31 WHIP in 78 IP. Let’s get Megill in the 4th or 5th spot which would set him up for a trip to Miami to open the season and if it’s the 5th spot, he’s get the Marlins again at home his second start! Keep tabs on how the Mets set up the rotation because whoever gets that 5th spot out of Megill, David Peterson, or Griffin Canning is at least worth an early season stream for a pair against Miami.

Even when he was buried, I was keen on Will Warren as a late round Draft Champions pick, but now with the Luis Gil injury he will come into focus a lot more. With a big spring he can usurp Marcus Stroman for that 5th starter’s role, too, but even if he loses out it’s not like the Yankees rotation screams “health!” as a unit. Warren did struggle his second time through AAA with a 5.91 ERA/1.40 WHIP combo as his 1.6 HR9 and .335 BABIP were simply too much for his 20% K-BB to overcome. As a heavy groundball guy, maybe he just needs a big league defense to turn those grounders into outs more consistently while the 23% HR/FB rate that drove his homer troubles feels like an outlier ripe for regression.

I’m a long-time Griffin Canning fan, something no fantasy manager should be saying in open company. His sharp spring and residence on a competent team (I know, I know… Mets gonna Mets, but it’s still not the Angels!!) isn’t doing anything to take me off him, either. It’s all of 10 IP, but 43% K and 0.80 WHIP is hot. He’s always been able to miss bats, he’s had solid-average control the last two seasons (8%), and if he can shave down that hideous 1.6 HR9, there’s no reason he can’t enjoy a bounce back season. I’m thinking something like 3.80-4.10 ERA range with a sub-1.20 WHIP and a buncha Ks in the best-case scenario. With a post-350 pick, why not?

The buzz is buzzing this spring with Ryan Weathers! We have seen strong springs from him before that have yet to materialize into a ton of regular season success just yet with a career 5.08 ERA/1.40 WHIP in 243 IP. That said, we did his best MLB stint last year as he posted a 3.63 ERA/1.18 WHIP in 87 IP and while he did miss over three months in the summer, he did finish the season on the mound with three starts in September, the last two of which were really good after the Dodgers roughed him up in his return (6 R on 3 HR). Health will be instrumental in Weathers being the breakout that many are tabbing him for and I’m along for the ride at this price. He’s been moving up the board in the first few Main Events over at the NFBC, going as the 78th SP off the board after sitting in the late-80s for Draft Champions and Rotowire Online Championship leagues. Mar. 19th Update: Ughhhh, we just can’t have nice things, huh? After an excellent spring, Weathers is headed to the IL with a left forearm strain that will likely cost him 6 weeks before he even starts to ramp back up. In other words, he’s fully off the board in anything by unlimited IL spot leagues.

We all have our guys we can’t quit. I understand why people want to stick with Edward Cabrera, hell, I wrote up Griffin Canning positively during this update, but I’ve just never been a Cabrera guy and now he’ll open the season on the IL with a blister issue. He throw high-90s and he’s still just 27 years old, but even if he does get on track health-wise, will he ever get a single win with this lineup “supporting” him?

Spencer Strider’s draft price is rising and will continue to do so with every positive note we get out of Florida during Spring Training. Strider was felled by an elbow injury after just two starts last year, opting for the new internal brace procedure over the traditional Tommy John surgery. The IB procedure is less invasive and puts him on a shorter timeline to return v. TJS. In the offseason, there was discussion of early-June for his return, but early reports have moved that up to late-April/early-May and brought his ADP up with it. He currently sits around pick 111 in a two-week sample of Rotowire Online Championship drafts pulled on February 26th (18 drafts in the sample set). Those are 12-team leagues with 30-man rosters, 7 reserves, and 0 IL slots. If we get a firm timetable that doesn’t go past early-May by Main Event time in mid-March, he will be a firm Top 100 pick.

I haven’t mentioned anything about his skills yet because everything really comes down to the health and your comfort with drafting him. I’m confident that when he’s on the mound, he will be a stud, piling up strikeouts and in a great position to collect wins as a part of one of baseball’s best teams. Even if he’s back sometime in April, I’d plan for something more like 2022’s innings total (132) than 2023’s (187). If you’re not comfortable drafting someone who will likely miss some time to start the season and again at some point in-season – even if it’s just a skipped start here and there to manage him and save some juice for October – then cross him off your list. Mar. 19th Update: He debuted in spring earlier this week and looked amazing, striking out six of the eight batters he faced, though it was admittedly a Red Sox B-team. He’s still going to miss some time as the Braves will be careful with him, but I understand why the start got everyone positively amped. I’m still a little nervous to take him in the NFBC space with no IL spots and some locked in missed time, but I get it if you’re not as concerned and want to go for the upside.

Robbie Ray returned last year and logged 31 decent innings, showing his excellent strikeout stuff while struggling a bit with his command and control which isn’t terribly surprising given that he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. He had a 33% K rate and 16% swinging strike rate, both career-highs albeit in a tiny sample, but not even his pitcher-friendly new home park could keep the homers in check as he allowed 1.8 HR9. Of course, that’s not particularly new for Ray as he has a career 1.4 rate so while I’m not tabbing him to repeat 2024’s rate, it is still the biggest flaw in his game. However, some big news in Spring Training could be part of a solution.

A Detroit Tigers Cy Young winner has helped develop a changeup that has some positive early results. It was not new teammate and 2011 Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, but rather the reigning Cy Young and fellow lefty, Tarik Skubal. Ray reached out to the 2024 AL winner and said Skubal was remarkably generous with information: “He sent me pictures, videos, everything. He was very open about it. I was very thankful,” which we learned in this Mercury News article. Ray has dabbled with a changeup at times throughout his career, but it’s never stuck. A legit change might be just what he needs to slice into his HR rate against righties. He allows HRs to righties at a 4% clip, a full percentage clear of his rate against lefties (and the league average). When it comes to numbers that low, a full percentage point is a big deal, so bringing his righty rate down to 3% would be huge.

Sandy Alcantara is returning after Tommy John surgery in October 2023 and turned heads by hitting 99 mph in his first Grapefruit League performance. Additionally, the Marlins have said there won’t be any restrictions on their ace, likely due to the fact that he has had the extended recovery time. Now let’s be clear that while I do have more interest in the extendo-TJ recoveries, they do not guarantee health upon return. Nothing does with pitchers, of course. I will still be focused on his Alcantara’s command and control throughout Spring Training as that is usually the last thing to return for a pitcher.

Kodai Senga is set to make his Spring Training debut hours before this writing on March 3rd. While he only managed 1 great regular season start (5.3 IP/1 ER/9 Ks) and 3 uninspiring playoff innings (6 ER, 6 BB) last year, he did at least finish season on the mound. I didn’t take him in any of why fall/winter drafts so I will be dialed into his spring work before making a decision about drafting him in my late-March leagues. His draft cost just inside the top 50 SPs isn’t egregious, but I’ve just landed on other guys in his range such as Ryan Pepiot and Reynaldo López. More than that, that 160ish overall ADP range has been a hitter spot for me thus far. If healthy, I expect tons of Ks, a good ERA, and some WHIP risk. He improved his BB% as 2023 evolved, but it was still 9% in the 2nd half which puts pressure on his hit suppression to keep the WHIP below 1.20. Mar. 4th Update: I wasn’t able to finish the update before going to the movies so now I can include Senga’s outing which ended up being 2 nice IP v. MIA: 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 Ks. No result was going to severely move the needle for my interest in him, solid debut, though!

Drew Rasmussen was splendid in 28.7 IP (2.83 ERA/1.08 WHIP) returning a calendar year after his internal brace procedure (a quicker, less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery). He had 4 starts and 12 relief appearances, but the starts were essentially him in the opener role as he didn’t go more than 2 IP in any of the 16 outings. The Rays showed their confidence in Rasmussen with a 2-year deal and 2027 team option and while they have committed to letting him return to a true starter’s role, I’ve yet to see anything on expected workload for 2025. Given that the internal brace was his third major elbow procedure, they will no doubt be cautious with him so I’m planning for a low triple-digit output until we see otherwise. The ranking drop in this update is entirely due to taking a more sober look at his expected output. On a per-inning basis, I expect him to be very good and if they want to limit him to 3-4 innings early on then maybe they can do us fantasy folks a solid and give him an opener so he can still generate wins.

The Phillies pulled off a sneaky-solid deal with their Jesús Luzardo acquisition in late-December. They didn’t steal him as 19-year-old shortstop Starlyn Caba is a legit Top 100 prospect, but he wasn’t anywhere near contributing to this current Phillies window whereas Luzardo deepens their rotation and gives them a third strong lefty. There was hype for him to build off his first full season in 2023 (3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 32 starts), but a pair of 60-day IL stints (elbow, back) limited him to just 12 starts and he wasn’t very good when he did pitch as his strikeout and LOB rates cratered resulting in a 5.00 ER A and 1.25 WHIP. The live-armed southpaw is healthy entering Spring Training and even showed out in his debut, dropping some 98 mph sinkers in his 2 IP of work. I never want to make too much of ST outings, but if he deals throughout spring he will likely move inside the Top 50 SPs (currently SP63 in early-spring drafts).

Max Scherzer only threw 43.3 IP last season, but he was still pretty good in that time – at least relative to where he goes in drafts these days – with a 3.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 17% K-BB. Sure, it’s a far cry from his superstar peak, but the 40-year-old righty goes well after pick-250 and I’m not sure even a big Spring Training performance would drive his price to a cost-prohibitive level. I can’t just gloss over the HR problem that has developed in the last two years as his hideous 1.6 HR9 makes it hard to project him for anything lower than a high-3.00s ERA at best. However, as long as he can maintain his premium WHIP, the damage from those HRs will be mitigated. Meanwhile, his 14% swinging strike rate over the last two seasons tells me he’s much more likely to reach 2023’s 28% K rate than 2024’s 23% mark. I also wouldn’t count out the surefire Hall of Famer to finagle 115-130 innings, though I’m entering this fantasy relationship with my eyes wide open, knowing that I could just as easily get 20 innings from him at his elevated age. There is tons of risk, but also tangible upside and a price that makes it a viable gamble to me.

Walker Buehler struggled mightily in his return from TJ after missing all of 2023, posting career-lows in K% (19%), K-BB% (11%), and SwStr (8%) en route to a hideous 5.38 ERA/1.55 WHIP combo in 75.3 IP. It was more of the same in his NLDS start against SD with 6 ER in 5 IP before capping his season with glimpses of the stud we’d grown accustomed to in 2018-21 (2.82 ERA/0.99 WHIP in 564 IP) with 10 shutout innings, allowing just 5 H and 4 BB with 13 strikeouts, including a World Series-clinching save. He landed in Boston with a proverbial pillow deal guaranteeing him $21 million dollars for 1 year with a mutual option for another $25 million in 2026, though if he does well I have no doubt he will test out free agency again.

I’m eager to see what pitching coach Andrew Bailey can do with Buehler to help him fully regain his frontline form and he’s still priced to buy outside the top 200, though that price is rising as we shift into FAAB leagues over at the NFBC. He had a 273 ADP in last 10 Draft Champions leagues (15-team Draft & Hold) through March 3rd compared to a 231 ADP in 10 Rotowire Online Championship leagues (12-team standard setup with FAAB) during that same time period. That’s understandable as you can cut and replace him in the latter if things don’t come together or he gets hurt again. He’s only made one spring start as of this writing on March 4th, but I do believe that a big showing in the Grapefruit League would likely surge him inside the top 200 and frankly, I wouldn’t be averse to getting in at that level assuming the appropriate signs were there in this theoretical performance (lots of Ks, low walks, hitting his IP markers).

We’ve only seen 67 IP out of Brandon Woodruff the last two seasons, all of which came in 2023 as he spent the 2024 season recovering from shoulder surgery and we’ve yet to see him in Spring Training, though he has been throwing live batting practices. Woody’s been one of my favorite pitchers in baseball during his heyday with a rock-solid skills profile and premium results, but he’s a complete wildcard coming into 2025. He has been ruled out for Opening Day, though that doesn’t give us a ton of info because he could be the 4th or 5th starter and just debut in the second series of the season. We will no doubt get more clarity on his outlook as Spring Training progresses and that news will drive my interest one way or the other. I’ve already finished the drafts for my leagues that have IL slots as it’s all NFBC-universe drafts from here on out meaning I’m unlikely to take him if he doesn’t have a timetable that brings him back by mid-April at the latest. Best ball leagues or those with multiple IL spots are the only spots I could comfortably recommend drafting Woodruff until we have more information on his return. Look for updates in this space as news becomes available.

I want to love Nick Lodolo, I really do, but the seemingly unending string of injuries paired with a devastating home park keep me from diving in headfirst. He has now piled up six IL stints in his three MLB seasons, including four last year, though if I can put a positive spin on that I will point out that none of last year’s were arm-related (groin, finger, calf). I’d be remiss to ignore the solid 17% K-BB and 3.78 SIERA during his 115.3 IP, but it was a very clear “skip the home starts” setup with a 6.09/3.56 home/road ERA split and his WHIP followed suit with a 1.57/0.86 split. The ERA split tightens up some when looking at his career numbers (4.96/3.94), but the WHIP remains night and day at 1.52/0.99 making him kind of a half-starter who doesn’t put enough total volume so you’re getting, what, 60-70 IP until he shows he can stay healthy for a full year? I think I have to see it before I can buy in meaning I’m willing to lose on him if he pops off this year on an opponent’s roster.

After missing most of the 2023 and 2024 seasons due to Tommy John surgery, Jeffrey Springs was able to log seven solid starts late last season before elbow fatigue ended his season in early-September. He did have an ugly 1.36 WHIP in his 33 innings with a .330 BABIP being a major reason behind that, but it was offset by a useful 3.27 ERA and 18% K-BB, though I’m reluctant to overanalyze such a small sample one way or another. He was traded to the Athletics and manager Mark Kotsay has said he won’t face any workload restrictions with a real shot at making 30+ starts. I highly doubt he returns to the 2.46 ERA/1.07 WHIP combo we saw in 135 IP during his 2022 breakout, but with a post-250 pick ADP just reaching his mid-3.00s ERA/low-1.20 WHIP projection is enough to be a net positive pick.

We only got a half season from Yu Darvish as neck and groin issues cost him some time and he left the team to deal with a personal issue. Add it all up and he was limited to just 16 starts, though they were indeed good with a 3.31 ERA/1.07 WHIP/17% K-BB in 81.7 IP. The HR9 was elevated at 1.3, but when you allow so few baserunners even a lofty homer rate won’t necessarily tank your ERA. While the volume wasn’t there, this was enough to wash away the ugliness of his 2023 for me (4.56/1.30/17%).

There hasn’t been much buzz for Darvish in the early draft season likely due to his age (38) and back-to-back seasons falling short of the qualifying for the ERA title (need 162 IP), but I don’t share those concerns. He’s just good and given that he goes outside the Top 60 SPs gives you some coverage if the volume falls short again. He’s an SP4-5 depending on how you build your staff, and I’ll gladly take that shot on a rock-solid profile residing on a strong team. If the WHIP is elevated again the HRs could present an issue, but his long-term history just doesn’t suggest that we have to worry about that: 1.09 WHIP the last 3 yrs; north of 1.10 just 1x in the last 6 yrs. Mar. 19th Update: He’s dealing with elbow inflammation which now puts him in danger for the start of the season and I just don’t want to deal with the headache in the NFBC universe. I’m open to taking him in IL leagues as I still like Darvish on a per-inning basis and can definitely see him offering a low-triple digit output of useful innings.

I hope the Orioles bring back Corbin Burnes to pair with Grayson Rodriguez atop their rotation, but I’m not holding my breath. It’s not that I don’t think Rodriguez can be the ace, but if they want to be considered a frontline contender, they need more. That said, I love Rodriguez and honestly more of his 2024 with a bit of refinement may well be enough to headline. It could be as simple as avoid the Dud outings (5+ ER). A trio of them really pushed his ratios up, especially in a 20-start sample, and while he did allow 20 runs in 14.3 IP over those starts, he also had a 22:4 K/BB ratio and went 5 IP on two of them. I’m always in on a young arm with an elite changeup as that is often the last thing to click with budding prospects.

Mar. 12th Update: After throwing 89 mph fastballs in a start, Rodriguez said he was fine and he was simply not ramping things up. So that was a lie. About 24 hours later we learned of a triceps injury that will sideline him for the start of the season and with that, he leaves my board in non-IL formats and plummets down it even in leagues w/IL spots. Unfortunately injuries have been a big roadblock in Rodriguez’s ascent to Acehood.

Lucas Giolito is returning from the internal brace version of TJ and was on track to start the season in the rotation according to his own words from this podcast ahead of his Spring Training debut, but he unfortunately suffered a hamstring strain after an inning of that debut which could now put that in doubt. At least it wasn’t an arm injury, but definitely a bummer for him. The last time we saw him on the mound, it was during the LAA and CLE debacles as he was traded then waived in the second half of 2023, but I still have some confidence that Boston can get him back on track and pitching at a fantasy-relevant level. I’ll continue to monitor through the rest of the spring (assuming this hammy is nothing) and if he’s good to go health-wise, I think he’s a viable reserve pick, especially in 15-teamers.

From 2021-23, Kevin Gausman was a bankable fantasy ace with only a BABIP-fueled WHIP holding him back from the very top of the rankings. His 24% K-BB was 3rd to Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole (25% for both) among the 38 pitchers with at least 450 IP while his 3.10 ERA slotted 7th and the aforementioned WHIP was up at 1.15 but still ranked 14th (11th with ties). His BABIP came down to .281 last year, after two years sitting well north of .300 but a massive 10-point drop in K% down to 21% played a big role in his uninspiring 3.83 ERA. He still put up 181 innings, but at age-34 it’s fair to ask if this is the start of his decline. His Stuff+ dipped below 100 for the first time since they started keeping track of it back in 2020, with his one-time elite splitter in particular continuing its downward trend. It sat at 116 Stuff+ from 2020-22, then dropped to a still solid 107 in 2023 only to crater last year at 95. If he doesn’t recover that in a big way, it’s hard to see how the strikeouts come back so I’m inclined to agree with the projections that average around a high-3.00s ERA.

The Padres talked all season about they were going to cut payroll only to sign Nick Pivetta to a 4-yr/$55 million dollar deal. I am torn between him and Heaney so I just paired them here. Pivetta’s had better K-BB ratios lately with a 23% mark the last two years, but his HR rate is even worse at 1.6 in that same time (he has the same 1.5 career mark as Heaney). His new home park won’t help him all that much with a 104 mark while the lineup and bullpen support will be markedly better. So I think it’s a Choose Your Own Adventure situation between the two. Mar. 12th Update: OK, y’all were right, I am too low. I’m still not diving ALLLL the way in as I don’t think Petco will completely alleviate his HR issues, but I realized I was going against a principle I often preach about by underrating some with a modest ERA but good WHIP. That’s an underrated pitcher class because people just seem drawn to ERA and once it goes north of 4.00, we lose our heads a bit. Sure, in 10s and 12s, you can’t really eat a >4.00 all year from multiple guys, but Pivetta has a 1.12 WHIP and 30% K rate over the last 2 years with that 4.09 ERA and I wasn’t giving him enough love for that.

I’ve been a Nathan Eovaldi stan since his prospect days with the Dodgers. Can you believe that was back in the early 2010s? He was drafted in 2008, but he hit my radar in 2011. It’s been a long winding road with many ups and downs to get to this point and I’m not sure I could’ve predicted that he’d start to find a modicum of consistency in his early-30s, at least relative to his established levels. From 2012-19, he averaged 126 IP/season, eclipsing 125 just twice, as injuries not only undercut his volume but also played a role in his volatile ratios. In the last four seasons, he’s averaging 152 IP/season, falling below 144 just once and going 170+ twice. Meanwhile, he’s been a 2-time All-Star with a 3.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP during those 606 IP. His market price of SP61 bakes in the expected missed time so while that dodgy health history lingers in the back of your mind for a 35-year-old arm, pencil him in for 130 IP just to be safe with a good WHIP, enough Ks, and sub-4.00 ERA on a team that should put him in a good spot to win whenever he’s going 5+ innings.

Clay Holmes is the latest RP-to-SP conversion generating buzz, joining Juan Soto in the move from NYY to NYM. He’s working on expanding his arsenal, including a kick-changeup and cutter to give him more weapons against lefties, though he had a dead even .662 OPS against both righties and lefties last year. Six scoreless innings with just 2 base runners and a 20% K-BB has only fueled the hype machine making him a classic Wide Awake Sleeper. Now just because many people are on a “sleeper”-type doesn’t mean you have to fade him if you’re still comfortable with the rising price. Mid-December is when we got news that he’d be starting and was aiming for a pretty full workload. From that point through January, he was an early-300s pick in Draft Champions formats. Over the last two weeks (Feb. 17-Mar. 3rd), he’s jumped 45 picks to 260 in that same format.

In the last 10 Rotowire Online Championship drafts which is a 12-team format with a 23-man roster, 7 reserves, and weekly FAAB, he has surged up to pick-223 with a min pick of 203. Continued success in Spring Training will only push it further and I’ve heard some of his proponents within the fantasy industry say they’d be comfortable paying something in the range of his new teammate Kodai Senga, who resides in the 160s during that same 10-draft sample of Rotowire OCs. Guys joining those two Mets in that range include Yusei Kikuchi, Brandon Pfaadt, Kevin Gausman, and Nick Pivetta. In other words, guys with legitimate upside who carry a question mark or two. I don’t think it’s completely out of pocket for Holmes to reside there. He doesn’t yet and might not get there, but I do understand the hype. I’m not worried about his innings, it’s just a matter of him succeeding with the transition.

I like the Nestor Cortes move to the Brewers as this quality mid-rotation type seems to thrive in Milwaukee. Since their double ace set up of Corbin Burnes (traded) and Brandon Woodruff (injury) has gone by the wayside, they’ve leaned on these types behind remaining ace Freddy Peralta. Cortes is probably a click or two better than the likes of Aaron Civale, Colin Rea, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Wade Miley who’ve all found success with them over the last three seasons. Cortes is a bit removed from the guy who dropped back-to-back sub-3.00 ERAs (2.61 ERA in 251 IP during 2021-22), but he rebounded nicely from 2023’s near-5.00 ERA with a perfectly solid 3.77 ERA/1.15 WHIP in 174 IP last season and I expect more of the same this year.

José Berríos is firmly in the “Boring Steady Eddie” portion of his career. It’s not that he’s a vastly different pitcher than his younger days, in fact he’s been pretty consistent outside of a disastrous 2022 (5.23 ERA/1.42 WHIP), it’s just that he no longer gets projected to take a step forward now at age-31. He usually runs an upper-3.00s ERA and 1.20 or slightly below WHIP while packing on the volume with exactly 32 starts per in 6 of the last 7 seasons (and you can guess the other one pretty easily even though we all try to bury that year from existence). I’d probably try to curate his starts a bit in a shallower league, skipping some tough roadies or big lineups that come visiting in Toronto, but in 15-teamers he’s just a solid mid-rotation arm.

Merrill Kelly only threw 74 IP last year but looked like himself with a 4.03 ERA/1.17 WHIP. Yes, he did have a 3.33 ERA in 2022-23, but it came with a 4.05 SIERA so we knew there was some regression potential here with the ERA if the homers returned (and they did in 2024, up to 1.3 from 0.98 in 2022-23). Give me a low-4.00s ERA, sub-1.20 WHIP and strong Wins potential on a good team from the 36-year-old righty. If he’s keeping the HRs in check and living back in the 3.00s with his ERA, then we’ll see more shallow league viability from him.

Matthew Boyd got his groove back last year with Cleveland. It was just 40 IP, but he had a 20% K-BB, his highest mark since 2019 solid season. He kept the HRs in check, though an 8% HR/FB no doubt aided that 0.91 HR9 while a career-best 7.3 H9 and solid 8% BB yielded a 1.13 WHIP. Health will drive everything here. Well, health and homers. If he’s allowing bombs at the same 1.8 clip we saw from 2018-20, you’re not going to want more innings, but if he can live around 1.1 or better with some health, there’s real upside here. Projections are coalescing around high-3.00s ERA/low-1.20s WHIP with a 25% K rate in just over 100 innings. I understand keeping the innings in check, but I’m confident the Cubs will let him go if he’s healthy throughout the season. There is no reason to baby a 34-year-old, even one with his injury history. He’s the 87th SP off the board, too, so all the risk is baked into the price. If he doesn’t work out, you can easily move on.

At 42 years old, Justin Verlander is hardly the ace he once was, but the beauty of Hall of Famers is that they often have some juice in the tank all the way until the very end. Even in a forgettable 90 innings last year, JV still had glimpses of goodness – notably his first half: 3.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 57 IP. Of course, an 8.10 ERA in the second half rendered that entirely moot and sank the composite line. He’s in the perfect park to give it one last go, although knowing him, he’ll keep pitching until they forcefully rip the uniform off his back. While he is my favorite pitcher ever, my expectations are in check and if he looks like the guy we saw in the second half, it’s an easy cut. I do like that he has an 18% K-BB in 16 spring innings, though I’m fairly certain his insane 99% LOB rate won’t hold up!!

Michael Wacha thoroughly enjoyed his first year in KC, dropping a third straight season of low-3.00s ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP while posting the second highest IP total of his career at 167. He loved his new home park with a 2.89 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home in 81 IP and it’s not like he was overly lucky there with a .301 BABIP and 8% HR/FB compared to a .286/9% on the road. That amazing defense certainly helped, but thankfully he was able to travel with them in tow! You know you can plan for some missed time with Wacha, he’s simply not a workhorse, but the quality innings he delivers plus the supplemental innings you can get when you have to replace him for his missed spells deliver a solid output for a late-teens round pick in 15-teamers.

David Peterson feels too new to be part of a “Veteran Presents” tier, but he’s now 29 years old going into his 6th season of MLB work. He only has 454 IP of work over that time so it’s not like he’s some bankable crusty veteran, but if he just punched the clock on a solid-if-unspectacular 150-inning season of high-3.00s/low-4.00s ERA, would anyone be that surprised? He has slowly added innings volume each season, inching from 106 to 111 to 121 and it’s time for a legitimate jump this year. The opportunity is there, especially after the Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas injuries.

I’m curious who the Mets would favor when Manaea returns and assuming their current five holds health-wise (Senga-Holmes-Canning-Megill-Peterson), it’s likely dependent on who is pitching the worst of Canning-Megill-Peterson. Nothing against D-Pete, but I’m such a sucker for Canning and Megill that I hope they’re able to hold onto their spots over Peterson assuming there isn’t another natural opening upon Manaea’s return.

Luis Severino enjoyed a solid rebound season in New York last year and parlayed it into a nice 2-year, $45 million dollar deal with the Athletics including a 3rd-year player option. I’d probably be more excited about this move if they were still in Oakland playing in the Coliseum, but I will say that he’s very fairly priced even with the lingering concerns of half his games coming in a minor league ballpark. I’d plan for something in the low-4.00s with his ERA and WHIP near the 1.24 we saw last season. That’s definitely more a deep league play than anything else, where he’s what I call a Team Streamer which is simply a streamer you keep reserved when not using him. I’m sure he’ll have bouts of streaming viability in shallower formats as he tours through a 10- or 12-team league, landing on 4-5 teams over the course of the season for the key 2-start weeks or times he gets hot. The one caveat for him beating that projection would be if he can regain his swing-and-miss capability and push his strikeout rate into the 24-26% range. He does have a 24% K and 16% SwStr during spring, but that’s 5 IP so we need a lotttt more before buying into it.

Andrew Heaney signed with Pittsburgh which might be the very best spot for his skillset. He has always had capable K-BB ratios (18%) that get tanked by his penchant for allowing homers in droves (1.5). PNC Park is 3rd-best at limited HRs with an 84 Park Factor so Heaney should at least have some home streaming viability. He is also slated to open the season in Miami if he is indeed their #4 starter so I don’t mind scooping him late and at least running him for that start then you can decide what you want to do from there.

Jose Quintana remains unsigned through February, but he’ll land somewhere to eat up some innings… perhaps even back with the Mets after a pair of injuries dinged their rotation. Mar. 3rd Update: Quintana was an early Spring Training signing with Milwaukee and should get a decent shot to join the backend of their rotation, but this update is coming out the day he signed so we’ll need some time to see if he will be ready in time for the start of the season. He is a streamer type for deep leagues with an impressive 3.39 ERA in 412 IP the last three seasons, good for 17th in baseball among the 55 starters with at least 400 IP in that time. His 1.25 WHIP is 34th while the meager 12% K-BB slots 46th. The latter two categories put some doubt on the sustainability of the ERA which why he doesn’t generate shallow league interest and the 4.38 SIERA backs that up (45th). Knowing Milwaukee, they’ll somehow finagle another sub-4.00 out of him as they seemingly do at least once a year with a guy like this (think Aaron Civale, Wade Miley, and Eric Lauer over the last 3 seasons).

Zack Littell is a solid-if-unspectacular arm at the backend of the Rays rotation who acquitted himself well enough in his first full year as a starter with a 3.63 ERA/1.25 WHIP in 156 IP. His 22% K rate was modest, but the 5% BB rate was fantastic, ranking 7th among 71 starters (min. 150 IP). The big problem is his persistent HR issue that will likely only get worse in Steinbrenner Field. He’s been at 1.3 each of the last two years and that matches his career mark as well. That paired with the meager K% is enough to push me off Littell outside of a late round flier in a deep league. In fact, this plummet in the rankings comes from battle-testing them during the 15-team LABR mixed draft on February 25th. I never considered him round after round as he stuck out as the top guys left on my board. It was at that point where I realized he’s just way too high. Without the Trop to protect him (2.90 ERA/1.08 WHIP in 87 home IP last yr) and make him at least a home-only streamer, he had to come way down in my rankings.

OK fine, the injury to Gil brings Marcus Stroman back into focus as he’s now slotted into the 5th starter’s role for the Yankees. I’m still wholly disinterested in him from a fantasy perspective outside of very limited streaming in the deepest of leagues. He had an 8% K-BB last year and just 12% the year before that as he doesn’t miss bats and has a below average walk rate. What are we really getting here besides a bit of win upside if he can make it through 5 IP consistently? I’m not even against crusty old vets who are much better in deep leagues as a general idea, I’m just not seeing a lot of juice in the tank for 34-year-old Stroman. At the time of this writing (Mar. 4th), I’d rather take the shot on Will Warren sneaking up and yoinking that role.

Moving from the worst pitcher’s park to the best does give Cal Quantrill a tinge of intrigue for suuuuper deep leagues. He’s found ways to consistently be successful with a sub-20% K rate during his non-Coors tenure and while I wouldn’t trust him to return to the sub-3.00 ERA days of 2020-21, I can see some spot-starting potential if the right 2-step at home hits the schedule.

It was a rollercoaster rookie year for Spencer Arrighetti and required the barf bag at the end when looking at his 1.41 WHIP and 1.3 HR9. However, there were enough strong elements during the positive parts of the season to make a compelling sophomore buy. He opened with a hideous 8.44 ERA through his first five starts followed by a 3.19 over his next six, interrupted by a nightmare pair of starts against DET and CHW during which he allowed 10 ER in 5.7 IP and this was well before the Tigers started playing well. From there, he had a 3.31 ERA in his final 87 IP (15 starts, 1 relief app.) that did include some poor starts, but he allowed more than 4 ER just once (4 IP/6 ER at TOR). I focused on ERA there, but the skills were vacillating, too, I just didn’t think it was necessary to write out his ERA/WHIP/K-BB for each run. The most impressive portion of his season was the finish, particularly the final 59 IP from July 28th onwards during which he posted a 31% K, good for 5th in baseball and just 1 tick behind Paul Skenes. Only six pitchers had more 10+-strikeout games than Arrighetti in 2024 and 3 of his 4 came during this homestretch which has no doubt played a role in driving his offseason hype. Count me among those on the hype train for the 25-year-old righty as I’ll bet on these raw skills and see where they can take the ratios.

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: The Tigers are sitting pretty right now coming off a surprise playoff run. They have a strong farm system headlined by Jackson Jobe, who checks in at no. 9 on the Top 100. He’s set to join Tarik Skubal, the reigning Cy Young winner, a returning Jack Flaherty, who was excellent with Detroit before a deadline deal to LA, the emerging Reese Olson, who has looked good in 216 big league innings, and Casey Mize, a former first overall pick who hasn’t quite lived up to the hype yet but still has upside, especially as a backend starter. A hip issue for free agent signee Alex Cobb now opens the door for Jobe to break camp in the fifth spot and he’s certainly not resting on his laurels, having added a curveball and two-seamer this offseason in an effort to boost his strikeout rate. A hamstring injury limited him to just 96 innings in 2024, but he was healthy to close out the season and made a four-inning big league debut (with 1.2 innings more in the postseason); he should be ready to push toward 120-140 innings this year. If the new pitches do foster the strikeout upside Jobe is hoping for, he will pay off handsomely on his current draft price, though be ready to pay a higher price if the whiffs start appearing in spring training and the hype train takes off. Mar. 19th Update: He appears to be on the outside looking in for a rotation spot which will push him down my NFBC draft board that has just 7 reserves with no IL or minor league slots. I’m more inclined to go for a minor leaguer who should be the first man up for his team than an injury stash, though, so I’m not sinking him down the board, especially when Kenta Maeda is his roadblock to a role. And in all fairness to Maeda, he has a 35% K-BB in 13 IP this spring, but also an impossibly massive 2.8 HR9!!!

My good friend Nick Pollack enlightened me to José Soriano last year and I became an instant fan! Part of it is my undying and somewhat ridiculous affinity for Angels pitchers (Reid Detmers to this day, Patrick Sandoval & Griffin Canning when they were there, and guys like Alex Cobb & Dylan Bundy back in the day), but the bigger part is just that Soriano is good! He has a 100 mph sinker that sets his foundation with a solid curve while dabbling with a four-seamer, splitter, and slider. He could definitely use a true third offering and both the sinker & curve have room to grow, but I like the growth potential for the 26-year-old and being on the Angels keeps him priced to buy in any format.

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: Quinn Mathews brings more floor than ceiling and could leverage volume over per-inning excellence to deliver his fantasy value. He built his innings yearly at Stanford, culminating with 125 in his senior season, then showed out in a four-level pro debut (2.76 ERA/0.98 WHIP/27% K-BB) during which he amassed 143 innings. Things went off the rails a bit in his 17-inning stint at Triple-A, as his walk rate (18%) and BABIP (.405) soared — perhaps some fatigue was setting in after such a long season. Or maybe it was just a few bad starts, which any pitcher can suffer during a season. The Cardinals did quite literally nothing this offseason, meaning they’ll rely on in-house options for improvement, with Mathews getting a chance to compete for the fifth starter’s spot with veteran lefty Steven Matz, who was not good in an injury-shortened 44-inning season. While Mathews does cut a “crafty lefty” type figure, relying on a plus changeup and slider for a lot of his success, he did tangibly boost his velocity, going from 91 mph in his senior season to 93-96 last season. That prompted a Tanner Bibee profile comparison from Eric in the Top 100, as they were both drafted with a backend starter outlook only to immediately take a developmental step forward and garner a mid-rotation projection.

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: Health remains a huge part of the electric-armed righty’s story. Kumar Rocker didn’t pitch until July as he worked his way back from a 2023 Tommy John; he threw just 48.1 innings between the minors and his three-start big league debut. Putting aside his health for a moment, his slider might actually be a 90-grade pitch on the 20-80 scale, but without improvements to his fastball, volatility will continue to be a major part of the package here. Rocker’s fastball is fast (96-98 mph), which does give it more margin for error, but that’s it. In his major league sample, the pitch netted an 83 Stuff+ grade — yes, it was in just 11.2 innings of work, but that’s in line with its performance in the minors. Despite the general negativity within this profile, there is still a lot to like with Rocker. He keeps the ball down, he misses a ton of bats, and he has displayed solid control at every minor league stop. A proper tweak or two to that fastball paired with health could unlock a breakout season, though even the rosiest outlook would still likely result in a low-triple-digit workload output.

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: Bubba Chandler enjoyed an impressive two-level season at Double- and Triple-A, even doing his best work at the higher level, albeit in half as many innings. In fact, only his walk rate was worse, jumping a point to 9%, while his strikeout, swinging strike, home run, and hit rates were all tangibly better. As such, so was his ERA, dropping nearly two full runs to a minuscule 1.83 in 39 innings. He’s more Jared Jones than Paul Skenes in terms of his production potential, but that’s hardly a critique. Jones broke camp with the team last year despite having even fewer pro innings than Chandler does right now, though Jones had twice as many innings at Triple-A. Chandler should get a real opportunity to grab the fifth starter spot, and if he breaks camp, the Pirates could be sort of a Mariners East team, with deep, excellent pitching doing its best to cover for a modest offense. Like Jobe, Chandler’s price will likely rise with every good Grapefruit League game he throws, so if you really like him and don’t draft until late March, be prepared for a price point inside the Top 200.

Pardon me for leaving Zebby Matthews off even after multiple updates… just an oversight that I kept forgetting to correct as I definitely consider myself a fan. Unfortunately he is currently on the outside looking in for a rotation spot, but I wonder if that’s the most prudent decision for the Twins when comparing him and Simeon Woods Richardson. Matthews just displayed better skills across the board, albeit in a much smaller sample (38 to 134 IP), but then you can add Matthews’ 97 MiLB innings to the mix, even downplaying them a bit since the minors are easier and it’s still him in a runaway over SWR.

I’d be remiss to completely gloss over his 2.6 HR9 and .364 BABIP in the majors which were the primary reasons behind his 6.69 ERA, but the 3.78 SIERA is more indicative of how good he was as the 2 IP/9 ER and 3 IP/6 ER starts did a lot of the heavy lifting on those ugly numbers. I will be keeping a close eye on the Twins in spring to see if give Matthews a fair shake. With an ADP outside the Top 400, it’s easy to take a gamble on him and either hang on for a little it into the season if he doesn’t get the rotation spot or just cut and move on if the format isn’t conducive to stashing a minor league arm.

Mar. 12th Update: He suffered a hip strain in spring and while it’s not thought to be super serious right now, it could be enough to cost him a spot on the Opening Day roster. If he’s healthy from the hip and still doesn’t make the roster, I don’t mind him as a short-term stash as I still think he’s better then Simeon Woods-Richardson and probably also Chris Paddack. Mar. 12th Update II: I didn’t realize he was pitching literally while I was writing up that first March 12th update!! Not only that, but he was excellent in the outing, going 3 no-hit innings with 5 Ks and a walk. I’m all the way back in and I’ll update the ranking tomorrow — I’m writing this right before bed and it’s a bit of a process to remake the charts — so if you draft between late-night March 12th and sometime on March 13th, consider Matthews as being ranked 100th.

David Festa and Zebby Matthews both lost out on rotation spots to Simeon Wood-Richardson and Chris Paddack, something I’ve made known throughout this ranking set that I’m not on board with for the Twins. On the one hand, I get it, let the two more established guys start the season in the rotation and go as long as they can remain useful, saving the two big prospects for in-season reinforcements, but the impatient side of me just wants to see Festa and Matthews unleashed from day 1 so I can confidently draft them. Instead, they’ll be FAAB pickups in-season. Festa wasn’t pitching nearly as well as Matthews so I guess him losing out is understandable if they were using spring stats as a tiebreaker.

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: I’m a big fan of Joey Cantillo, who showed flashes of his strikeout upside (27%) during a 39-inning big league debut that also saw him battle inconsistency with the long ball (1.4 HR9) and walks (9%). Cantillo isn’t currently slotted into the rotation, but it remains to be seen if the 33-year-old Ben Lively can pull another rabbit out of his hat for 29 starts, and Triston McKenzie’s ever-present health issues make him tough to rely on for a full season. There will be opportunities for Cantillo, and I prefer him to teammates Logan Allen and the newly acquired Slade Cecconi.

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: Some bright spots are starting to poke through for the White Sox after their dismal 2024 season, as their farm system has a chance to deliver throughout the season. Sean Burke’s swing-and-miss upside was on display all year, resulting in a 33% strikeout rate in 72 minor league innings, as well as a 29% mark in his 19-inning big league debut. They are still going to be one of the worst teams in the league and his control issues present some real WHIP risk, but there will be pockets of value for the 25-year-old and even some long shot breakout potential if his command and control take a step forward.

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: Andrew Painter is working his way back after missing two full seasons, so temper your expectations for this year, as the Phillies will handle their star prospect carefully heading into his age-22 season. In fact, despite an invitation to spring training, it’s only to work with the big league club, as Painter isn’t going to pitch in any Grapefruit League games. He did look outstanding in a six-start run at the Arizona Fall League, displaying the same incredible stuff that had us drooling over him back in 2022. He likely won’t have an opportunity to pitch for the Phillies until at least July, meaning I probably should’ve put him in the “Keep Tabs” section, because even in the Draft & Hold format, I don’t really understand why he’s going inside the Top 400 picks. That said, he is just so damn good when healthy that even 25-30 innings down the stretch could be impactful, so I’ll likely be involved in the bidding once he arrives in the majors.

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: I’d be a lot more excited about Rhett Lowder if he pitched pretty much anywhere else (except Colorado, of course). Even the Cincy starters who have dominant stuff, like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, give me some pause because of that ballpark, so obviously there will be some concerns with a more strike-throwing, groundball-inducing arm in that hitter’s haven. Lowder ripped through three levels last year (3.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP/20% K-BB in 109 IP), making his big league debut in late August and sticking with the team through September. His six starts were a departure from what we had seen in the minors. His walk and fly ball rates surged and yet he didn’t allow a single home run, so he somehow managed a 1.17 ERA despite a 5.16 SIERA. He can mitigate homers in that ballpark if his 52% groundball rate from the minors shows up, and I’m more willing to bet on that than the 39% rate from his major league sample. Meanwhile, the doubling of his walk rate to 11% feels like a complete small sample fluke. Early spring elbow tightness could hamper his ability to compete for the fifth starter job, but he will be in consideration to replace the first injury or underperformance that hits the Reds early on, as it seems Graham Ashcraft will now be in the bullpen.

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: Thomas Harrington is floor-over-ceiling control artist and could fit snugly at the back of the Pirates rotation with all its burgeoning stars putting together some quality innings in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league. He’ll probably have a sub-25% strikeout rate in the majors, but as long as it’s not sub-20%, there’s some solid innings-eating potential here with legitimate WHIP upside for the 23-year-old.

The good news is that Dustin May officially won a rotation spot! There’s still an open question about what kind of workload he will get this year, both start-to-start and in the season at large. His post-250 pick price point takes the burden off him to deliver a full season workload, we just need to know if he’s allowed to consistently go 5+ IP per start, putting him in line for wins on the best team in baseball. The other big question is whether or not he can consistently miss bats. He’s a GIF god with some of nastiest pitches in the league, but career 23% K and 9% SwStr rates leave some doubt about how strong the K output will be. That said, he does have a 3.10 ERA/1.05 WHIP in his 192 IP so even if the Ks aren’t there, the ratios and win potential (as long as he’s going 5 IP) should be for the 27-year-old righty.

Cody Bradford will start the season on the IL with an elbow injury that will include no throwing for 4 weeks from March 15th. He will then have to build back up after that, likely costing him at least the month of April, if not some more time into May. I was pretty excited about Bradford given his excellent spring so this is a colossal bummer. I’ll keep tabs on his recovery for a potential FAAB bid when he returns, but I’m not looking to stash him in any format.

Alex Cobb inked a deal with the Tigers this year, but he’s already on the shelf for a month with hip inflammation. We were never going to expect a full season from him anyway so you can comfortably take him off your draft board and keep tabs on him as a potential waiver pickup down the road.

Shane Bieber had his Tommy John surgery in April of last year which means he won’t be back until the summer. As such, he’s not draftable anywhere that doesn’t have unlimited IL spots. Keep track of his recovery to see if he’s worth a bid when he returns, but I’m always skittish about going too hard after TJ returners unless they have the extended recovery time (16+ months).

I’m always rooting for Triston McKenzie, who is my direct body comp at 6’5, 165, but injuries have absolutely ravaged his career, making it hard to see how he gets back to the guy who dropped a 2.96 ERA/0.95 WHIP/26% K rate in 191 IP back in 2022. His 8.08/1.82/16% in 11 spring innings says we’re a looong way from that guy returning.

The lat strain to Frankie Montas has him shutdown for 6-to-8 weeks as of February 17th and as such, he’s completely off my draft board outside maybe a very late stash in an unlimited IL league. Remember, that’s just how long he’s down for, he will still have to ramp up and get going after that so you’re probably looking at upwards of 3 months putting him at a mid-to-late May return date. And all that is before we even get into his skill issues. He improved his K% with Milwaukee enough to be OK for them (4.55 ERA/1.26 WHIP), but continued to walk batters at a double-digit clip (10%) and his HR rate actually went up a bit after the trade from 1.4 to 1.6 HR9. I’ve been a Montas fan in the past and I will definitely continue to root for him, but I’m not seriously looking to roster him at this juncture.

John Means won’t be back until August so he’s not draftable anywhere. I’m always going to root for him and I’m eager to see if they can get him fully healthy and back on track for 2026. He could deliver a few useful innings down the stretch in Aug-Sept, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

I don’t really know what to make of Tomoyuki Sugano coming over from Japan at age-35 as a control artist, but it seems I’m not alone as he carries a 101-pick split between his min (308) and max (409) picks over a 20-draft sample from mid-to-late February with the average sitting at 363. You absolutely have to supplement his Ks if you’re relying on him for any amount of time, though he’s likely being used as a spot starter at best in most situations. Mar. 19th Update: Sugano has thrown 7 shutout IP during Spring Training along with a 27% K rate, but that feels like a total mirage with a 6% SwStr. Obviously any 7 IP sample is too small to take much from, but if he had like an upper-teens or low-20s SwStr with it, maybe we could get a bit excited, but I just don’t see him missing enough bats to be super relevant. The excellent control could make a WHIP streamer for deep leagues, but I’m kinda surprised he’s being drafted as a Top 100 starter in the NFBC universe this spring.

With attrition striking the Red Sox rotation, Quinn Priester is in line to start the season in the rotation despite a less-than-stellar spring effort. I don’t know if the Red Sox had him working things and told him just to focus on that, results be damned, but without concrete information to suggest that was the case, I just can’t overlook the 15% BB, 1.9 HR9, and 2.25 WHIP over his four starts (9.3 IP). It’s still a remarkably tiny sample and there was a 15% SwStr mixed in there, too, but I’m playing more of a wait-and-see approach with the one-time Top 100 Prospect.

Shane Smith is a prototypical lottery ticket, but a fun one to take with your last pick in the draft as you’ll likely have a solid keep-or-hold answer by your first FAAB run in the regular season. If doesn’t swipe the 5th starter’s role from Bryse Wilson, you can cut him. If he does, you hold and see where it goes. The Rule 5 pick from Milwaukee has a live arm with high-90s heat and low-90s sliders that have allowed him to post a 35% K rate in Spring Training. The problem is he doesn’t really know where the ball is going most of the time, evidenced by his 12% BB rate. He split time between starting and relieving in the minors last year so why wouldn’t the White Sox take the shot on him as a starter? If they really wanted to please us fantasy dweebs, they’d make him a follower so his 3-4 innings come in the middle of the game and put him in line for some wins which will obviously be sparse even if he went 7-8 IP/gm on this team. I know they aren’t going to turn him loose for 5-6 IP very often just yet but even if he was a traditional starter for 3-4 IP at a time, I’d love to see it!

From my Re-Draft Prospect article: Caden Dana had an excellent 23-start run at Double-A (2.52 ERA/0.94 WHIP/20% K-BB) before getting a look at the majors to end the season, and while he was pasted in a Texas two-step (4.1 IP/9 ER on the road against the Rangers and at home versus the Astros) after his solid debut against the Mariners (6 IP/2 ER), I’m focused on the bigger picture and believe the 21-year-old can deliver some value this summer for the Angels.

It’d be unfair not to point out the excellent spring that Simeon Wood Richardson has had given how tough I’ve been on him in the profiles of his teammates, posting a 0.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 11 IP. The 13% SwStr was solid, too, but still netted just a 20% K rate and I just don’t see a ton of fantasy upside here, especially with better options looming in the form of Festa and Zebby. He’s a capable backend MLB starter, I’m just not seeing the path another level or two of success in SWR’s game.

I just don’t see any way that Ben Lively pulls another rabbit out of his hat this year. While I do trust the Cleveland organization as a whole at getting the most out of their pitchers, Lively’s skills just weren’t that of a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. His 3.81 ERA in 151 IP saved the Guards from taxing their bullpen even further as only he and Bibee were bankable options for Stephen Vogt. They will need the likes of Gavin Williams, Luis L. Ortiz, and Triston McKenzie (if he can stay healthy!) to pick up the slack so they can save some juice for bullpen to be fresh in October.

Andrew Abbott just hasn’t been able to replicate the swing-and-miss that we saw all throughout his minor league career (36% K with excellent swinging strike rates at every stop), posting a 22% K rate and 10% swinging strike rate in 247 MLB innings. That just makes entirely too risky to consistently trust in Great American Ballpark and the 1.5 HR9 isn’t helping matters.

Graham Ashcraft is ticketed for the bullpen to start the season and while he may find his way back into the rotation as openings occur, his star has dimmed as you just can’t succeed in today’s game with a sub-20% K rate, especially in a park like Cincy’s.