Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 22nd, 2023

Paul Sporer: Good morning, y’all! Thanks for coming out

John: Paul great job pointless end of draft question. Backup 2B Segura or Wong? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily pointless, those guys can always pop off a level beyond their normal. They’re close, but I go with Segura there!

Dusty: What are your thoughts on Wander Javier and what’s his upside ?

Paul Sporer: Unlimited!

Rick: its been a while since I’ve been on here, are there updated positional ranks?

Paul Sporer: Here is the rankings page and I have a big update going out after this chat! https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert

Guest: How late would you wait to draft RPs in a 12-team S+H league?

Paul Sporer: I’m open to waiting a good bit. You’ll still need to stay on top of your positioning there bc while S/H are plentiful, that also means you need more to compete.

Getting to it: It’s always a good morning to chat baseball. Getting right to it, when will Anthony Volpe debut for the NYY, and is his future at SS or 2B?

Paul Sporer: In the summer and I think it’s at 2B. Peraza has a substantial glove edge over him and SS, of course, is the most important infield position so that gives him the edge there, at least initially

WBCisAWESME: Hey Paul, did Joey Meneses impress you last season/WBC? Will he make an impact at 1B for 15-team leagues?

Paul Sporer: I wasn’t a huge fan at the outset of draft season, but I’ve warmed up a bit. My biggest issue is really the team around him and how that will impact the R/RBI. If nothing else, I think the power is pretty legit (and we saw that on display at the WBC)

Greener Pastures: Is Dalbec the odd man out?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he strikes me as a short-side platoon guy. He is getting some burn at SS in spring which could be another avenue for some PA. He still just strikes out entirely too much, though. Even in the midst of a solid spring, he’s got a 36% K rate

Guest: Thoughts on Jose Miranda as a starting 3B this year?  Advanced metrics seem middling, but he looked great last year ..

Paul Sporer: I’d be more in if the shoulder wasn’t a problem this spring, but he’s a good hitter. Probably won’t excel in any single category so needs the volume to put up a big season

RK: how much time you expecting Soto to miss?  I’ve never seen an oblique actually be minor.  I’m guessing 3 weeks missed.

Paul Sporer: Yeah obliques terrify me. I took 80 PA off his projection and he moved down to my 35th hitter

John: Does Spencer Torkelson out preform his projections this year?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. I’m willing to stay bought in after the uninspired debut as I believe in the overall pedigree

Healthy John: What is Moreno’s outlook this season? Can he be a top-10 C?

Paul Sporer: It definitely sucks that Carson Kelly got hurt, but it does give Moreno a real shot this year and I’m definitely a fan. I was already getting him 2-catcher leagues and I’m still in even with the price jump. Bumping him to 411 PA moves him to my C14

Rich: What are your thoughts on Elly De LA Cruz being added to the 40 man roster, and is this a sign of him coming up before the all star game? The reds also have been giving Barrero reps in cf.

Paul Sporer: Gives him an easier path to promotion if he proves ready, but there is still a ton of swing-and-miss in his game that definitely makes him volatile. Love the talent, though!

Siri: H2H 6×6 cat league- keep mclanahan for 12 or Carroll go 6?

Paul Sporer: Carroll at 6 for sure (nothing against McClanahan, just gotta prefer the potentially elite hitter at half the price)

Crone Zone: Am I wrong to have devers as the second ranked 3B this year

Paul Sporer: No, there’s nothing wrong with that. I don’t have that, but I don’t find it egregious. He’d likely be closer to that mark for me if I believed in the rest of the Sox offense as I have him for 92 R and 94 RBI

Guest: Thoughts on Jessie Winker this year? Is he only rosterable in OBP leagues?

Paul Sporer: I’d take a shot in deep mixers. Health is an ever-present problem, but he’s back in a friendly park so I can see rolling the dice if you like him

Ed FIguringitouta: Lets say O-Pera gets the NYY SS gig to start the season, does he get some rope to struggle through cold stretches, or could he be replaced quickly by Volpe (assuming Volpe continues his torrid pace)?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine he gets some space to see where he’s at. Volpe has been out of his mind this spring, but I’d be surprised if he stays that hot into the season, even at Triple-A

Micah: 12-team league and I lost Altuve :'(

Who do you prefer between Luis Garcia WSH and Wilmer Flores SF in an OBP league? (We keep 20 players if that makes you lean towards youth if all else is similar)

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a big split between, but do have Garcia ahead and would lean toward the youth when it’s this close

TES: Do you think Trent Grisham will rebound at all this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m still interested. My patience will be muuuuuch shorter this year, but I’m a Grisham guy and still like the power/speed potential. If he can live around the 23% K/11% BB we’re seeing in Spring, he’ll be much better this season!

Joe: After last night Ohtani is the number 1 SP right?

Paul Sporer: Not quite, because of the volume, but obviously he is a remarkably unique player that can’t quite be judged like normal players. Even in leagues where you have to choose between hitter or pitcher each week, I don’t have a problem taking him anywhere in the Top 10. Some don’t want to deal with the perceived hassle or lock up their UTIL, but I’m all too happy to take Ohtani when he falls

Framberman: Rodolfo Castro has struggled a bit in ST. Still sold on him as a possible breakout?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, it wasn’t great especially w/the 16 K/1 BB ratio but he should still be in the mix for plenty of PT in Pittsburgh. I like him deep mixers and NL Only formats. No need to draft in 12 teamers and lower right now, just keep him watchlisted

Guest: Thoughts on Profar? How relevant is he in mixed leagues?

Paul Sporer: Worthy reserve in 12s because of Coors, but just watchlisting in 10-teamers

Will: who starts in center for Astros?

Paul Sporer: McCormick and Meyers probably sharing

MyNameIsBonus: Oswaldo Cabrera: Great sleeper, or the greatest sleeper?

Paul Sporer: Biiiig fan! My breakout OF piece is out later today and he’s included! Will start in the everyday OF with Bader down and should be no worse than a super utility if Bader returns healthy and Hicks stays upright all year (which is a big of a longshot)

Siri: Bargain shopping at 3B. Jung, Walker or rendon in OBP league?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Josh Jung fan!! https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert?eligibility=3B…

Joe: Yoshida’s projections, ZIPS especially, seem ridiculously optimistic to me. You buying him essentially being peak Matsui?

Paul Sporer: Only 1 projection reached 20 HR for Yoshida so it’s not really peak Matsui projections, but I do like him and think he could transition to the league smoothly. I’m tabbing for a big AVG off the top and we’ll see how the power develops

Paul Sporer: (13 HR and .282 AVG are my projections, btw)

Clarence’s Parents: Better prospect to stash in my NA slot this year: Baty or Endy Rodriguez? If called up, neither would start for my team this year, so need to balance 2024 upside against risk of having to cut them if called up too early

Paul Sporer: Baty for me. I don’t get too hung up on rookie Cs, even though I recognize that Endy is quite good

Let’s not start a Holy War: Justin Mason mentioned Brendan Donovan a couple times yesterday. Digging into him a bit, is it crazy to see a 2016 Jose Ramirez season out of him (minus steals), especially if the spring power gains are real?

Paul Sporer: The power gains this spring are definitely notable for Donovan. For those who don’t remember, Ramirez went 11 HR/22 SB in 2016 so it wouldn’t be insane to see Donovan get near there. I’m not sure he’ll run enough for 22 SB, but something like 10-13 HR with 7-10 SB is in play with a good AVG, which would be a great piece with triple elig. (2B/3B/OF). The power gains have put him on my radar as he was originally an afterthought for me

Your Mom: Need rotation help from the waiver wire. You like any of: Ober, Eduardo Rodriguez, Boyd, or Keller?

Paul Sporer: I’m intrigued by E-Rod’s 2nd season with my Tigers! That’s a tight group so you can flip a coin, but since you’re looking to me for the tiebreak, I go E-Rod.

Jer: Is Brendan Donovan going to breakout this year? Need some bats and was considering shipping Trevor Rogers for him

Paul Sporer: Threw this one in here since I just answered the B-Don question above!

mario: Austin Meadows ST stats don’t look great. Can he get back to old TB self?

Paul Sporer: He’s had good plate skills but no pop. I don’t see a 2019 return and he’ll really only go as far as his body takes him. I put him down for 17 HR/.260 AVG, good for my 66th OF

J: Who do you like more for this year Kris Bryant or Max Muncy in standard roto?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got Muncy by a buck ($1.08 to be precise). I’d be OK letting my team build dictate the pick a bit, too – if I need AVG, I’ll go Bryant, if I just need the most raw power, it’s Muncy for sure

Matt: What are your thoughts on yoked Yandy Diaz? I mean if you look at some of the underlying numbers, it is kind of similar to Vlad Jr. in a ton of ways. It just seems like if he pulled the ball a bit more to sell out for power, we’d be looking at a stud.

Paul Sporer: The thing is, this has been the case for years. It could be magic if it ever came together, but at this point, I’m done projecting Yandy to get some lift. That said, his 266 ADP is perfectly fair so you can take him there and just pray that the mystical lift comes to fruition!

RTJ: based on spring and the mess in Atlanta, are you stashing Shewmake in deepish NL onlys?

Paul Sporer: Ya caaaannnnn, but he hasn’t exactly torn up the minors so there’s probably someone more interesting in most cases

Kevin: Are you going for closers earlier, given the ever decreasing amount of clear number 1 guys now?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m not afraid to commit to a premium closer early in drafts.

Oh Hello: What is the level of concern for Kyle Wright after yesterday’s debut?

Paul Sporer: It’s much more about the shoulder in general than the ugly ST outing, but he’s dropping a good bit in the rankings update I’m putting out after this chat

mario: Rotographs request: when you click the Blogs menu at top, there is an Ottographs link but it only goes to very old articles. Can we please have direct link to Otto content?

Paul Sporer: Yes, it needs to be updated to this link: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/ottoneu/ — I’ll see if I can get the team to change that

Everlasting Gobstopper: Dustin May or Hunter Brown

Paul Sporer: Brown, even with the balky back that just cropped up

Damian: Have you moved reid detmers up at all in your sp rankings after the higher velo reports? What do you think is a realistic ceiling this year?

Paul Sporer: I was already quite high on him this season as he’s in my Top 50! I’m not sure I’ll raise him even more, but I’m a huge fan

vr: Seems like Turang might get a starting job. You taking him or Luis García (wsn)?

Paul Sporer: Garcia for me. I don’t see much fantasy juice from Turang. He’s a great glove at short, but that’s about it

Powder blue: where can we look to see when these chats will be held?

Paul Sporer: Front page on the right sidebar has the static schedule. I had to move from my normal time (2pm ET) bc I’m traveling today

Jeffrey: If Jordan Walker makes the team out of ST, is he pretty much guaranteed everyday at bats even with the log jam of hitters the Cardinals have?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d be surprised if he was brought up to play inconsistently

Anonymous: With Brantley and Altuve down, does Tucker finally bat in the top of this lineup?

Paul Sporer: I certainly freakin hope!!! I think he can get that #2 spot

Poppin’ Mahle: Is Jack Flaherty washed? Not sure what to make of this spring after he was awful last year and hasn’t been healthy in a long time

Paul Sporer: It’s been a modest spring, but a .408 BABIP is doing a lot of work there. I’m still willing to take the shot on him, but I’m keeping my expectations in check and won’t be afraid to cut bait early if it’s not working out

Anonymous: Sucker play or smart: Bumping injured studs (Harper, Altuve, Glasnow) up the draft board in Head-to-Head formats knowing they’ll be ready for the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Only if you have unlimited IL spots… otherwise definitely a sucker play

Anonymous: Talk me out of deGrom please! Even 120IP of him is so juicy

Paul Sporer: It’s really hard because any sort of triple-digit IP output puts him in the stratosphere

YABO!!: What poker room are you crushing today when you get into vegas?

Paul Sporer: Bellagio! Hope I can crush or at least come out plus. Excited to play some live poker for sure!!!

TES: Do you have RP ranks? The link sends to your 2022 RP ranks

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert?pos=rp&eligibi… — all my rankings are going to be updated today, too

Paul Sporer: In fact, I have to get going. Sorry for just over an hour, but I’ve got a tight schedule today. We’ll be able to go longer next week as I know next weekend will have tons of drafts, too.

Jarred Kelenic: Am I actually showing improvement or getting everyone’s hopes up again in spring training?

Paul Sporer: I think there is some improvement, but the price is rising now, too. He’s a top 200 pick. I’m still worried about all the swing & miss he’s shown as a big leaguer but I’m rooting for him.

Kate: Hate asking these kinds of questions, but how do you think the Mets pen shakes out now with Diaz hurt?  One of Robertson or Ottavino get the role or more of a timeshare?  Or does Cohen do something crazy to add someone from outside the org?

Paul Sporer: I think D-Rob’s history as a closer gets him a real shot at being the guy, but if it’s shaky in the first half, I definitely see them making a move

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I’m heading out! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all and good luck in your drafts this weekend!