Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 3rd, 2026

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all, thanks for coming out!! We’ll get started here shortly, feel free to put your Qs in.

Otto Lopez: Legit breakout?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think so. AVG likely won’t stay THAT high, but he was really nice last year and has jumped another level this year. I’m confident he’s a real thing!

Day Games: Is it finally Noelvi time?  Worth a speculative add in a 10T 6×6 or let someone else get fooled again?

Paul Sporer: He has been EXCELLENT in the minors w/8 HR-9 SB in 40 gms and a great slash line to go with it. Now that he’s coming back up, I’d take the shot. Don’t have to give toooo long to show something in a 10, but the skills are still there and he’s just 24 yrs old. Plenty of upside still

Logan Webb: Gonna be good ROS?

Paul Sporer: Boy, I’m not sure. Ratios are rough right now w/at MIL today then WSH-CHC 2-step next week! Skills have cratered from last year, too. I’m still not cutting even if today isn’t great, but I could see actually skipping the 2-step next wk. I know early season there was talk of ABS getting him a bit and then he got hurt so that’s why I’m not jumping right to a cut, but it’s bleak right now, espec. w/such low Win probability on SFG

Texas Leaguer: Tovar, Swanson…. Can either save their season? Tovar 5k’s in one game this week. Swanson gets pinch hit first in a one run game….m

Paul Sporer: Both has the glove to keep their job and get the opportunity to work through this but I’d lean toward Dansby of the two. Sure, Tovar has Coors at his back, but Dansby has a much richer track record and still has 7 HR/5 SB even amidst his horrendous .181 AVG. Solid plate skills, too, w/the BB% spiking to 13%.

InsertWittyNameHere: It’s that time of year where draft value is out the window.  I hated picking Perdomo where I did.  I need SB’s, is Rocchio or David Hamilton okay replacements or should I stick with Perdomo and hope he heats up?  10 team OBP league.

Paul Sporer: Hopefully you can recall this next draft season and bypass someone you truly don’t believe in. I’ve been there, too, but it’s just the worst feeling bc if you’re right about them, then you eat it. I feel the same w/my Shane Baz share, but thankfully it’s in a best ball lg so he can only hurt me so much.

I can’t see Hamilton adding anything for you over Perdomo other than the fleeting satisfaction of cutting someone you’re mad at. Rocchio is closer, espec. in a 10 team. He’s been awesome! Is there a route to add Rocc to start over Perdomo right now while still keeping Perdomo? That’s the move for me. Perdomo’s .224 BABIP is really the major issue right now and I don’t see any reason to think that’s the real Perdomo

Caught Stealing: Own both Chandler Simpson and Jacob Marsee in deep leagues where I need speed. When should you get worried about the caught stealing for these guys? Is there a general point when teams stop sending them based on results?

Paul Sporer: Sub-75% will def catch the attention of teams. I wouldn’t be surprised if TB starts yellow-lighting him a bit as he’s just 14-for-22. League average is 75% and I wouldn’t be surprised if TB has even higher standards. To that end, he’s 0-4 in his last 17 gms. Oh and it seems Marsee has the exact same 14-for-22. And 0 for his L3. I can see him getting slowed down, too

Chip: Who’s your favorite AAAA player? Some dude who could cook in the minors and never hack it in the majors. (Paging Jarred Kelenic).

Paul Sporer: Ooh this is fun. I don’t think Orlando Arcia quite counts bc he had his MLB moments. I’ll go in-house with Corey Julks slamming for my Tigers in AAA. He’s 30 so I don’t think he’s ever gonna be anything more than a 26th man for a few wks at a time.

Robert: ROS rankings for a 12T points league?

King, Taj, Early, C. Scott, Melton, Woodruff

Paul Sporer: New rankings out tomorrow!! King/Early stand out for me among the group. I love Melton long-term and he’s close, but it’s def those 2 over everyone rn

Let It Mead: Do you buy the Curtis Mead breakout? Your boy Justin Mason is high on him and the quality of contact stats are very good

Paul Sporer: Oh ya I think there’s some juice to this for sure. I definitely thought he could be an AVG asset when he was coming up w/TBR and that’s not even part of his game yet! Even if the power doesn’t quite sustain, I can see his AVG going up a healthy bit (.270s). Great plate skills, smashing the ball, but being saddled with a .252 BABIP right now (though part of that is a heavy FB rate which isn’t conducive to BABIP, but even still he’s better than .252 IMO)

Todd Gak: How would you rank/compare Addison Barger and Lars Nootbaar, both on waivers in my league and set to return from IL stints shortly?

Paul Sporer: Here’s your money, Gak!! :chucks a pillowcase full of pennies:

Paul Sporer: I’m a big fan of both, but Barger is definitely the better fantasy asset. We just haven’t seen any measure of consistent health and his fantasy impact hasn’t been great w/no carrying tool. Barger has the premium power and despite his 2 IL stints this year, I don’t think he’s some injury prone guy to worry about right now

David Wiers: Curtis Mead with his .367 xwOBA, is we making The Leap?

Paul Sporer: Sorry meant to put both Mead inquires in at once!

Paul Sporer: But see above for Mead info

Farhandrew Zaidman: Wrobleski – the K-BB tells me he’s over his skiis in terms of results, but the vibes tell me he’s a legit #3 starter (seriously, dude keeps a meticulous spreadsheet for every start). Where do you land?

Paul Sporer: I’m so with you on being perplexed by him, but I also lean toward your vibes. I think we both probably believe he can actually improve the skills to match his results better. If we didn’t have the 21% K-BB last year (admittedly mostly in relief), maybe I’d be more concerned but bc we’ve seen him do it before, I really think he get better there. He also has the huge support of LAD for W potential so even if the skills don’t improve and he pitches closer to a 3.90-4.25 type ERA, he can still pile up Ws. Plus, even with ERA regression, I think he will likely remain a WHIP asset and the modest ERA/great WHIP class of pitcher is always underrated in fantasy

Mike: Would you start Colt Emerson next week or Bo Bichette based on what we are seeing right now?

Oh No Bo: What to do with Bo Bichette? His mini-surge against the Nats didn’t last, he’s not hitting for any power, and while his peripherals suggest he should be better, they’re nothing special. Plus his trade value is zilch. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I’m goin Colt! And I think Bo is pretty cuttable in shallower setups. He is a strong BABIP regression candidate sitting at .239 with a career .331 and supporting skills that really aren’t that far off his career norms, either. His line drive rate is down 5 pts which def plays a big role in his lower BABIP but it seems there’s just some plain ol’ bad luck, too, when looking at his full suite of batted ball metrics. Can’t always wait for these types to pull through in 10s, though, and one of my weaknesses in shallower leagues is holding this player class too long so I’ve been trying to get better at that. 60 games of this is enough to move on and possibly revisit him if/when the BABIP turns around

InsertWittyNameHere: Lost Eury last week (very freak injury! and he was dealing too!) Which do you prefer as his replacement, Yesavage, Ben Brown, or Tolle?  I scooped Roki as a lotto ticket, but I doubt he’d outrank either of those three.

Paul Sporer: I currently have Tolle/Yesavage back to back in the rankings so I’d choose b/w those 2 (maybe line up their upcoming 3-4 starts as a tiebreaker?). Brown isn’t too far behind, either! All three definitely clear Roki by a good bit, but I don’t mind him as a lottery ticket!

Jay: As someone who has owned Whitley, Alex Reyes, Espino, and Anderson Espinoza as keepers in a league w/ MiLB slots in past years, can I dream on Seth Hernandez or should I have learned my lesson by now?

Paul Sporer: We stay dreamin!!! Gotta go through a lotttt of misses to find the gem with pitching prospects. It’s usually because of injury, but whatever the reason, it’s hard to have a super high hit rate so don’t get discouraged!

Mike: Adding Roki in 12-team H2H leagues?

Paul Sporer: Definitely! A really strong May got him back on the radar in a big way. He’s at least a Team Streamer in all formats and I would gladly start him v. LAA and at CHW in his next 2

Salty: Putting price aside, if you could acquire one of Machado, Riley and Okamoto, who would it be?  I had assumed Machado from the jump, but it’s been a prolonged slip (almost 2k career games with little missed time) that I’m wondering if Okamoto is the better target of the three.

Paul Sporer: It’s still Manny for me. He has 10 HRs so it’s entirely an AVG problem right now and like a few others we’ve discussed today, his BABIP is wayyyyy down (.172). Unlike some of the others, there are elements of his profile that give credence to a lowered BABIP, but not THISSSS low. I think even if he only pushes to his .231 expected batting avg, he’s still a better bet than Oka (who I do like, just prefer Manny a good bit more)

Hazmat: Dynasty league: drop Spencer Jones for Noelvi?

Paul Sporer: I’m fine with that, yeah

Guest: Is Royce Lewis‘ demolition of AAA moving the needle at all for you?  Or is this mostly just “he’s doing what a 26 year old with MLB experience should be doing”

Paul Sporer: You know how ppl say “oh I’m in the bag for him”… i LIVE in the bag for Royce. I just love him, so I’ve been geekin over this Triple-A explosion. I think I made a comment a couple chats ago that I’m still like 4 years from quitting him… at least 4. I just think he’s so good and that it’s always health interfering, not skill. Guys like that, I just don’t let go until the skill truly wanes.

Matt: Looking to round out the final 2 in my rotation for next week (Messick, Sanchez, Yamamoto are my rocks). Need 2 of: Webb (WAS, CHC), Zebby (@DET), Warren (@TOR), McClanahan (@LAA)

Webb’s 2 start is enticing, but coming off injury after having sucked prior seems very risky

Paul Sporer: Mc 100% and then it’s Warren/Webb. You can see how today goes and let that influence you re: Webb or just sit out the 2-step regardless of today since the matchups aren’t easy. I wouldn’t cut him in any case, but I’m not averse to possibly skipping Webb

Gray Days: Didn’t listen to you and got re-seduced by GrayRod. No reason to hold in even the deepest of league, right? (Ball off Adell’s head aside.)

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think we can cut until further notice. He’s not irredeemable or anything, but I came into this year feeling I really wouldn’t be back in on him until 2027 unless he just COMPLETELY shocked us this year (and he has not… well maybe he has, but to the negative)

Guest: Re: Kelenic level prospects.  Travis Snyder.  I was so excited to see the spectacle of domination which….did not happen to put it nicely…

Paul Sporer: LUNCHBOX!! I was a big fan of his, too!

Bcubs: Ty for ur knowlege: Curtis Mead or TJ Rumfield ROS (20 team 20 categories)? Also — which handful of these guys would you most rather have ROS Lambert, E. Cabrera, J. Jones, Baz, Spencer Miles, Jax, T. Rodgers, N. Cameron, Bello and Gage Jump? I know it’s a lot so pick however many you feel is right.

Paul Sporer: Mead/Rum is close for me!! I think Coors is enough to be the tiebreaker, so let’s get a slight lean on Rumfield. As for the pitchers, I wouldn’t worry about rest of season so much as the next 4-6 wks. None of these are aces so they don’t have a guaranteed leash until the end of the season, so if you can line up their expected matchups for the next couple weeks, that could help sort through such a big cluster.

I’d lean Cameron/Cabrera off the dome (Jones would be higher if he weren’t coming off a missed season, but I do like him more in 2027 and beyond) but I also made you a little leaderboard to look them over after you lay out their upcoming schedules.

MAC: Tradition 12 team Dynasty roto. Do I hold on to Bubba and or Zebby.

Paul Sporer: Bubba. Let me be clear that it’s a not a HUGE endorsement of him, but rather a lack of interest in Zebulon!

Andrew: Any advice on how to mentally deal with Detmers?! he’s shown so much upside and all predictive metrics love him, but  he just cant show any consistency

Paul Sporer: Ooh my pitching version of Royce Lewis in that I’m still years away from quitting him! A couple Duds have pushed the ERA up, but I’m trusting the core skills and keeping him in my rotation for all formats

Guest: Will DeLauter’s trade value ever again be as high as it was on  March 30, 2026?  I feel like he’s going to be a Yandy Diaz “The power has finally arrived!” tease for years to come

Paul Sporer: Yeah it was no doubt SKY HIGH in that first week! Health is the biggest hurdle for DeLauter as he only once topped 50 gms in a minor lg season and it was only 57! I’d be more concerned about him Yandying if he had that same heavy groundball lean, but he’s got a more diverse batted ball profile that shouldn’t limit his power as we see with Diaz.

Kai-Wei to the Tenger Zone: Could Miguel Vargas be turning into the next JRam type cheat code before our eyes?  One of my fantasy MVPs for sure.

Paul Sporer: Dang, y’all just hitting on some of my absolute faves today! Vargas isn’t quite as Royce status, but I’ve been in his camp for years and I love seeing what he’s doing this year. I stop short of a J-Ram comp, especially bc his AVG seems to be capped by his batted ball profile being so flyball heavy, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a fantasy stud for us even if he’s hitting .240-.250. Normally we’d see a .234 BABIP and scream regression, but a career .233 BABIP and the aforementioned crazy flyball lean make it a tough sell that he’s going to really flip that BABIP too much.

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: They were lookin for you in Ben’s chat this morning, did you see that?

Paul Sporer: Y’all absolutely rule!!! I wish I could clear the queue, but I do have to get going and finish up these SP rankings to drop for y’all tomorrow. Take care and thanks for coming out!