Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 14th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Welcome everyone, thanks for coming out! A few minutes from the official start, but feel free to drop your questions if you’re here early!

Scott TINSTAAPP: As a fellow JV owner in the Main, how worried should we be about his ROS outlook?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got some concerns but not actionable for me right now. A dud today miiight give me some pause at HOU next wk, but I can’t imagine sitting him before seeing 10 starts

Guest: WTAH Strider

Paul Sporer: Ran into a juggernaut!!

Insert Witty Name Here: Time to worry about Strider? Fastball has lost a few ticks (I think, haven’t fully looked). He’s always been an injury risk.  Rest of staff is currently Darvish, Hunter Brown, Eury, Taj, it’s a shallow 11 teamer with an innings cap so streaming pitchers is an option.

Paul Sporer: Velo down just 0.4 mph isn’t enough to have any real concern (gotta be 1.5 mph or more one way or the other before it really matters) https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=6/14/2023&gamePk=717770&c… — Tough outing after the dud last time out, but nothing actionable for me

Guest: does a Cole Strider Wheeler Cease Gray Cobb rotation just require patience in 12T QS, or is it time to shake things up?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that core is too good to blow up. You can stream around them, but I’m not moving off the top 5. Cobb can be a team streamer, doesn’t have to start every time out

King131: I hear the “sell, sell, sell” mantra on Morel (and understand the sell-high window has largely closed), but do you think there could still be a productive fantasy future there? Does it really just come down to limiting Ks?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he can be bc he has power & speed so the fantasy juice is there even if the slash line lags (see also: Witt Jr., Bobby). Ks and the way he generates his (chasing, lack of patience) creates these cold spells he goes through. Given you likely got him off the wire or very late in a draft, it’s OK to hold, too. Selling high isn’t always great advice bc it’s really hard to just go out and do that

Jack: Dropped Freddy Peralta to (successfully) stream James Paxton in a pretty shallow 10team league on Monday – the question is, do I keep rolling with Paxton going forward or go back to Freddy?

Paul Sporer: Both? Who else can you cut to get Freddy back? Definitely want to hold Pax

Nate Pearson: I’ve been Sneaky good, will I start getting holds anytime soon?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I can see him getting into leveraged spots plenty if he stays pitching well

Gray: actually, which Gray did you assume I meant, since Josiah is a step below Sonny and Jon lol. it was Sonny tho

Paul Sporer: Sonny was my guess with Jon 2nd. I assumed (gotta be careful assuming!) that you’d have pointed out if it was Josiah!

Suwinski last night: Homer at 105 off fastball; walk after falling behind 0-2; homer at 111 off curveball; by his 4th PA, Leiter said screw that and threw him 4 non competitive heaters up and away for walk #2. Swing and miss in the zone is back based on the rolling graphs, still 50/50 to even play vs lefties, but I can’t imagine pitchers *like* having to throw strikes and hope for the best. He’s already survived one slump and I know 2.5 months is still a small sample, but I’m excited–especially in OBP. Dude is just 24! Gallo is becoming an obvious comp, but even prime Gallo never put up a sub 20 o-swing (and was also slightly below Jack’s 76% zcontact). Sorry for the love letter, I’ll shut up and listen!

Paul Sporer: Similar to the Morel convo in that Suwinski has fantasy juice which makes the downturns and obvious flaws more palatable!! The huge BB rate softens the blow of the K issues, too, bc he can still get on base and run a bit (& score runs) to supplement his dry spells

Swing and a blast: Last week I asked if there were any sign Gunnar could be top 50 ADP next year. You said no signs and low probability of it. Thoughts.

Paul Sporer: He’s cookin, but Top 50 takes a lotttt more than a great week!

Insert Witty Name Here: Shallow 11 teamer, need to know who my two UTIL guys should be between ELDC, Jung, and Nolan Jones. Need OBP and RBI mostly.

Paul Sporer: ELDC and Jung are my faves. Jones is riding an OBSCENE BABIP and while you can maintain a high one in Coors, not a .467!!! So if I have to lean away from 1, it’s him. Do you have to cut him or is this just start-sit? Bc Colorado goes to Cincy (Coors Lite!) and then home for the weekend next week!

wADHD+: How hard is it to win a league making minimal moves on the waiver wire/trades? I’m currently 3rd in standings and the two teams above me have a combined transaction count of 20(!?). They make lineup changes daily so they’re not inactive, but they miss out on a lot of names on the wire which would benefit them. Is this a good sign for me to surpass them eventually?

Paul Sporer: It can be done being super active and it can be done just making the moves you need to make. There isn’t a right way in this case. If it’s a shallow lg w/a deep waiver wire. Be mindful of your opponents, but don’t let what they’re doing get you off your game in any way

Kevin: Would you rather have Skubal or Trevor Rogers going forward?

Paul Sporer: I lean toward Skubal. Better news w/his rehab right now as Rogers recently suffered a setback

Guest: Is Luis Matos a strong add if you need an OF? What are your ROS projections?

ChaCha: Just traded Luis Matos in a win now mode because I thought he wouldn’t be able to help me down the stretch…….talk me off a ledge

Paul Sporer: Matos is an interesting prospect, but doesn’t feel like a gamechanger you’re going to heavily regret trading. I think he could be an AVG/SB kinda guy and AVG is always a tough bet bc you need the BABIP to go your way. A definite pickup, but a longshot to be a major piece in any format

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: In deep AL OBP league, I’ve been offered Taveras or Laureano for same pitcher I no longer need. Best bet to get 10 HR/10 SB ROS? Will Laureano get traded somewhere that will boost his R and RBI totals?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Leody. Muuuuuch better team and he’s been the much better player, too, so even if Laureano is traded, it doesn’t push him past Leody.

Spot Starter: Looks like you see Heaney as a borderline team streamer. Him or Bello, or is it just match-ups? Only league, so the wire is dicey.

Paul Sporer: Yeah Heaney is a shallow league team streamer and he & Bello aren’t that far apart to where I would definitely just play the matchups with ’em

Oberizzi: Oh right. Ober allows home runs sometimes.

Paul Sporer: We’ll take solos! We knew the 5% HR/FB was going to regress so let’s just make sure the bases are clear when it happens!

Guest: I would like your opinion on 3 Marlins SPs: B.Garrett, E.Cabrera, and T.Rogers. Will they ever let Garrett get me some quality starts, will Cabrera reign in the BBs enough to make him rosterable, and will Rogers’s improvement in his last 1 1/2 starts before his injury carry over?

Paul Sporer: Hopefully the push Garrett to more of a 90-95 pitch guy as the summer wears on. Cabrera can reign in the BB for periods of time, but he hasn’t shown anything to suggest the control has substantively improved yet. I’m down to roster a healthy Rogers, but he isn’t there right now so I’m only holding where I can sustain a luxury reserve or have a buncha IL spots

Alex: Is Luis Patiño a dynasty drop now? I believed for years but it looks like it’s not happening

Paul Sporer: I understand the fatigue, but it’s worth mentioning that he’s still just 23 yrs old! I’m OK moving off him if there’s someone you really want and he’s the obvious cut, but I’m not fully out on him

Texas Terror: Is Texas scary enough that I should leave Ohtani at DH tomorrow instead of using as a pitcher? (Yes, daily dual Ohtani is the best thing in the world)

Paul Sporer: Yeah, no sense taking the risk IMO, especially when the backup is getting his hitting stats!!

Jack: I’d have to drop Eloy or Chafin to hold both of Peralta and Paxton, I’m already leading the league in Ks so don’t really need both starters more than I think I need stray saves

Paul Sporer: OK based on your sitch, I understand not holding both SPs. And I guess Peralta’s ERA is such that he won’t automatically be scooped off the wire, either

Vladdy: Would you trade me for G. Cole?  My two keepers in an 11-team rotisserie would be Cole and Carroll.

Paul Sporer: Yeah no issues with a stud-for-stud deal like that

Elm: Big thanks for the chat!! Phillies folks have had some quotes about Darick Hall needing to “play his way” onto the active roster. I think he’ll need to rev back into gear, but it feels like the roster spot will be his once he’s full speed. Is Kody Clemens really going to block him?

Paul Sporer: As a Longhorn myself, I root for Clemens, but I don’t really think he’s gonna block off Hall. Clemens could stick and maybe Harrison is at risk upon Hall’s return?

Rickey: Do you think Neto and Julien are strong adds in a redraft league? And overall, which would you prefer in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: I’m interested in both, yeah. I lean Julien slightly in dynasty, but both have their perks depending on needs.

Severi-NO!!!: Injured?  In a slump?  4 seam velos last 5 starts: 96.2 (yesterday), 95.6, 95.0, 98.0, 96.7

Broken Bat: Severino is really broken… no to little movement compared to prior injury. Really only has a FB at 93mph. Hard hit up, everything bad but holding steady on k’s. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: These were literally back to back in the queue!

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely concerned about Sevvy especially with his injury history. Trip to BOS this wknd and home v. TEX next week… no need to start him in either. I’m probably still trying to hold in case it’s just a blip, but not a must-start right now

Chip: I have Outman in an NL-Only because it’s slim pickings and I had hope he’d pick it back up but I’m getting concerned. At this point, should I drop him for either Pham or Matos (other options are Dickerson or I guess Pavin Smith)?

Paul Sporer: Wooow I didn’t realize how in the tank Outman has been since the hot April. Sub-.600 OPS since May 1st. Originally I couldn’t believe you were gonna cut in NL Only, but maaannn… with the PT down as well as the performance, I’m down to go for either Pham or Matos. Kind of a coin flip there. Shiny new toy or known commodity.

Broken Bat: Michael Taylor is close to being mvp so far for twins…agree?

Paul Sporer: Damn near at the very least, right? Gold Glove CF defense plus a capable bat! Super fantasy viable too with 10 HR/11 SB

Insert Witty Name Here: Elly and Strider for Freeman and Dansby a fair swap?  Worried the league is going to adjust to Elly, and Dansby has to start getting rewarded.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think that’s a fair sell high on the Elly hype. I love him, too, but also can see the league punishing those Ks. No issues co-signing this deal

Guest: got offered Ezequiel Duran for Matos in a keeper league. Would you do it?

Paul Sporer: Definitely no issues there

Riding the Struggle Bus: Is Bibee a streamer now? 12tm H2H; might need his roster spot for a hitter (Gallo or Rooker maybe)

Paul Sporer: After 1 bad start that was primarily a bad 1st inning? Naaah. 2.43 ERA in the 5 starts before that. He remains a set & forget for me

dunnarama: Hey Paul, very much enjoy your content but in a quandary. Need to drop one of Bailey Ober, Garrett Whitlock, Freddy Peralta. Thinking Ober….but it’s a tough call!

Paul Sporer: Ober might actually be my favorite of the bunch. Bottom line is that it’s a close trio for sure so it’s not an easy choice, but I lean toward moving off Whitlock from that group

Ravaged by Injury: Trying to trade for JD Martinez and Kwan. Offering JRam and a pitcher. Who gets it done between Sears, Bradish, Bryce, or Ober?

Paul Sporer: Any of them should but I don’t think I’m down to trade J-Ram there. I know JD looks fully back as a premiere hitter, but this still feels like a sell low on J-Ram. If you’re married to the deal, I’d include Sears. But I’m reluctant to sell Ramirez here

Kevin: Is TB ever going to let Bradley go 6 IP? I’m chasing QS and he has a great matchup (@OAK) tomorrow.

Paul Sporer: Chasing QS and rostering Tampa Bay starters isn’t a great mix

BA barracus: B. Anderson teased early on this season with the Brewers that he was going right back to his prior mid-tier fantasy usefulness. Was that just a mirage?

Paul Sporer: It’s really just a 2 wk cold streak after a .769 OPS & 8 HR in 50 gms before that. I understand moving on in shallower formats where he’s still on a roster bc he’s the kind of guy to burn & churn in those formats, but I’ll ride out the cold streak in deeper leagues

Blake Snell: Do you think the turnaround he’s made over his last four starts is legit?

Paul Sporer: Legit in that he stays at that level? Probably not. I mean we saw how he went off in the 2H last yr, but even in this 4 start run he still has an 11% BB rate so w/the control issues always present, it’s going to keep him volatile

Thairo Estrada: “sell high” (not actually doable with his power-speed combo), or is he going to be one of those Statcast outperformers despite a sub-5 walk rate

Paul Sporer: I was pretty out on him during draft season but even with half the season left, I’m down to eat the L. Agree that he won’t really bring much in the trade market so might as well just ride it out

L-A Loosh: Have prospect evals missed something with the hit tool for CES? Fangraphs has him 30/35. He has a .328 career BA in the minors and over the past month,  his BB/K is basically even. Getting a lot of hype, but should it be more hype???

Paul Sporer: No, a month of good plate skills doesn’t really change things after a minor league career of pretty poor BB/K. He’s run pretty high BABIPs in the minors, smashing the hell outta the ball. He might be better than 30/35 but I still don’t see him with a major hit tool. A power guy in Cincy excites me even if the AVG isn’t expected to be great, though!

bcbcbc: Drop Ober or Detmer for Skubal?

Paul Sporer: I have Detmers slightly ahead of Ober. Anyone else you could cut & keep Ober?

Matt w.: Aaron Nola is unstartable right now. Lucky for me on my nfbc draft n hold still have 6 good starters to use. Would Sears, Crawford or Pearson be better options

Paul Sporer: Unstartable really overstates it bc he still has a 1.10 WHIP. The 4.60 ERA is frustrating but I’m still starting him in virtually everywhere and I can’t imagine rocking any of those 3 over him tbh

twinmh: Hey Paul, when a chatter refers to “Gray” in his rotation, do you have a chat-host sixth sense that knows whether he means Sonny Jon or Josiah?

Paul Sporer: I got lucky guessing Sonny earlier, but I try to figure it out by context. If not, I will ask, lol

Corbin the Destroyer: Has Corbin Carroll officially gone from ROY candidate to MVP candidate now?  My goodness he has really taken off

Paul Sporer: Yes he has!! The Baby Snakes playing so well, too!!

Guest: Would you be willing to give up Eovaldi for Goldschmidt in an 8-team H2H?

Paul Sporer: Yes. I adore Eovaldi, but we know his injury history and in an 8-team, I feel like I can stream well enough to cover the Eovaldi loss

Chickie: In light of a no discernible timetable for Judge’s return, could you ever in your wildest imagination, consider moving Judge for Robert in a 12 t Dynasty keep forever with no contracts? There’s a substantial age difference 31-25. I mean Judge is who he is, but if he’s not on the field?

Paul Sporer: I meeeean it’s not like Robert is Mr. Healthy, either, though, so no I can’t envision doing that

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, gotta keep it at a hot hour today! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer) & Twitch (sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!