Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 26th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Guest: is Ty France hurt still/again? he’s barely been a 1 cat contributor (runs) in any format YTD

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s been rough. Not sure he’s a must-hold anywhere right now

Paul Sporer: Sometimes guys play through injury and we don’t learn about it until the end of the year bc they don’t want to make excuses

Ben: H2H keepers – I know flags fly forever, but would you move three years of minimum priced elly (auction league – $3) for tatis, yordan and gausman? with the increased weekly variance of H2H i’m more hesitant than if it was a roto league.

Paul Sporer: If you don’t think the upgrades from who you have to Gaus & Yordan (we can call Tatis/Elly even-ish) then I’m OK passing, but it’s the right kind of offer to get someone like Elly

Hank Scorpio: Hi Paul, thanks as always for the chat. 12tm 6×6 roto $275 budget, keep 3.

With my league’s trade deadline a week from Sunday and my team mid-table, 9th place finish at worst ($1 keeper penalty), I’m looking ahead to 2024. Keeping my team competitive now, but preparing for next year, the team in 1st place needs pitching and we’re discussing a trade of either my S. McClanahan or L. Castillo for his B. Harper ($20 next year). I feel like that’s a potential two-year keep ($35 in 2025), but I also like my keeper pool currently:

Low cost: K. Bradish – $6; H. Brown – $7; J. Walker – $7; E. De La Cruz – $10; High cost, high floor: G. Kirby – $23; L. Castillo – $37; S. McClanahan – $37

My actual question: Would you consider moving one of the horses for a $20 Bryce or should I keep my rotation intact and roll with 3 from the list? Bradish, Brown, EDLC would likely be my selection today. Appreciate the thoughts and insight!

Paul Sporer: I like this deal and think I’d make it. Bring Bryce in as a potential keep and see how he finishes. He might not surpass Walker and the SPs but he’s in the mix for sure, especially at just one year of $20

SamskiNYC: Paul, your boy Kerry Carpenter has been crushing lately. You buying it as legit or just a hot streak?

Paul Sporer: Really think his power is legit and he can remain strong the rest of the way

Panik! At the Disco: I’m really tempted to take Skubal off waivers but have a hard time finding a cuttable among the rest of my SPs: Eflin, Musgrove, Paxton, Berrios, Bryce Miller, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown. Javier has been bad, but yeesh, to cut him? Anyone you’d drop for Skubal or just sit tight and let someone else wake up to him eventually?

Paul Sporer: Yeah not sure you have a cut for Skubal, especially w/him being monitored and often falling short of 5 IP. Love Skubs and he’s been great so far, you just have a great staff IMO

LongLiveSchlorf: Is the season a lost cause for Brian Reynolds? He’s killing me.

Paul Sporer: It’s been rough and he’s becoming a harder hold in shallow leagues with 3 OF, especially if you have a specific category need. In 5 OF formats, he’s still an easy hold. Still pacing toward a 19 HR/15 SB/86 RBI/82 R season which isn’t too bad

PGB: Is Eduoard Julien giving off Keston Hiura vibes? Bad fielding, high K, but dynamite power/BABIP in his first taste of the bigs… i want to believe in him in a deep dynasty context but i’m scared he’s gonna fall off and lose playing time.

Paul Sporer: Daaamn that’s an interesting comp! On the positive side with Julien, he doesn’t swing and miss like Hiura so there’s definitely potential to improve and he could run a good bit more so let’s call it Hiura+ right now. And if the Hiura we saw was a bit better, we’d still be rostering him so I’m in on Julien going forward. Julien also had less hype so not the same kind of cost associated if he falls off

SamskiNYC: In a vacuum, if you had to keep one of Bello, Woo, Bobby Miller heading into next season. Where do you lean?

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s a tough choice. I dig all 3, but I lean Miller just a bit over Woo. He definitely has the best stuff of the 3 and I generally lean toward pure stuff when betting on a pitcher’s future

LongLiveSchlorf: Any streamer interest in Luis Rengifo through the weekend. 16 team 6×6 need someone to fill in for Yandy I think.

Paul Sporer: No issues there. Has some fantasy juice and you can catch a hot week with him as a fill-in for so many spots

Mr. Garvey: Is Wily Adames ever going to break of his season-long slump? I hate to drop established producers – so my competition to enjoy the good regression – but he’s taking up valuable space on my bench.

Paul Sporer: He’s actually been turning it around with a big July – .810 OPS with 5 HR & 13 RBI so I’m inclined to hold

Tim: How are we feeling about Quinn Priester, a couple starts in? I have him at the back of my rotation in a 14 team H2H dynasty

Paul Sporer: Haven’t had a chance to check him out yet in the 2 starts. Boxscore scouting says it’s been rough with 4 HR, 5 BB and just a 6% SwStr in the 10 2/3 IP but obviously I’m not just giving up on him entirely before seeing some more starts. I’ll get a look at him before his next start and share some thoughts in the Daily SP Chart

Bruce Live 2023: If DeJong gets traded and Masyn Winn gets the call to play SS, would you put him over Cowser . Westburg for the ROS?Thanks

Paul Sporer: I’d lean toward Winn over Cowser as the more dynamic fantasy asset. Could run wild if he hits the ground running upon call up (if & when Winn comes up)

Guest: What is up with starting pitchers this year? Feels like it is hard to trust pretty much anybody no matter who they are playing.

Paul Sporer: HRs back up is a big part of it, IMO. The 1.09 HR/9 last yr was the lowest since 2015 and it’s back up to 1.20 which is line with 2021’s mark of 1.26

Paul Sporer: I don’t know how much is the pitch clock but I’m sure it’s a factor with plenty of guys

Guest: I’m going to hit my innings limit early in a roto league at my current pace. How “bad” does this situation have to get before you start sitting guys in matchups you otherwise would run with? Or do you just run until you’re out of innings?

Paul Sporer: Run out when you run out! You can only use X amount of innings, it doesn’t matter if you use them earlier, it matters how good they are, regardless of when deployed.

Paul Sporer: (H2H would obviously change things but I assume you’re saying Roto)

Jon: Is Trea Turner going to turn it around or is this a lost season? I offered him for Woodruff bc I have Neto and Luciano

Paul Sporer: Could be a jump in HRs if his 8% HR/FB regresses to his career 13%. Probably just a lost season in terms of ELITE Turner, but obviously still an easy must-start everywhere because he can go off on a dime

Bobby: Do you think Cristopher Sanchez will have his innings limited later in the year? He’s doing great now, but if he gets limited during fantasy baseball playoffs I’ll need to prepare now

Paul Sporer: He’s around 30 IP from hitting last yr’s total + 25%. I haven’t seen anything about limits for him, but it’s not a terrible idea to plan around a potential shutdown because you can neverrrr have too much pitching!

Scott TINSTAAPP: As a Tigers fan, what’s your read on what they might do at the deadline? Do you see E-Rod and Lorezen both moved? What about Lange and Foley?

Paul Sporer: Lorenzen feels like a must-move! Think Lange & Foley could go if the RP market is bonkers, I doubt Harris trades ’em just to trade ’em. E-Rod is a tough read bc of the contract so I’m not sure he’s getting moved. I think a lot of their action depends on how hot the market is for pieces

I Used to be Mel Clark: Considering trading for Whit Merrifield, but his Savant page is scaring me. Has his first half been a mirage?

Paul Sporer: Savant page is mostly a snapshot measure of power which isn’t Whit’s thing anyway. I was worried that Toronto wouldn’t let him run and he’s got 28 attempts so I’m good there. If you’re good on SBs, you can flip him for something you need more

ha-seong him: is triston casas a stud now? same wRC+ as matt olson since 5/1! trying to decide between him, steer and starling marte in roto

Paul Sporer: Big fan of his coming into the season and glad to see him come through the brutal April (.576 OPS). He has a .289/.379/.525 with 11 HR since May 1st (235 PA)! He’s on a major heater in July, but was a solid contributor in May (3 HR/.766 OPS) and June (3/.851). He’s a pickup where available and I’m taking him over Marte unless you desperately need the SBs

Uncle Baby Billy: Is Jarren Duran for real? .414 BABIP, but great underlying metrics. Would you trade a Matt Chapman for him if you needed SB/AVG/R?

Paul Sporer: I was skeptical initially bc I thought it was all the BABIP (.487 in April) and while he has maintained a pretty crazy BABIP since (.396), it has been supported by a 9 pt. surge in HardHit rate up to 46%. He also has a blistering 19-for-20 SB rate in 67 games. I still see the BABIP coming down, but speedsters can maintain well above average marks for long periods of time and the SBs are too good to pass up, I’d take the trade given your needs

Phil: Which side you prefer in a Moniak + Paxton for Snell?

Paul Sporer: League size would likely play a role and I’d lean toward Snell in 12s and lower where you want to consolidate talent, but I’m more open to the Moniak/Paxton in deeper formats, especially if you need to fill the OF and SP spots

Sho: Would you start Braxton Garrett against the tigers in a GS cap QS league?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s close. He is being limited to 90 or fewer pitches and has only gone 6+ in 3 starts (all QS). DET obviously gives him a good shot for his 4th but it’s always tough to spend a start on a cap. I’m gonna lean yes, let’s do it!

Nestor: Is Nestor cortes is a top 30 SP? Or where would you rank him when he comes back?

Paul Sporer: Not top 30, more like 60-75 range off the top of my head

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-july-starting-pitcher-ranki…

It’s the Singer not the Song: Sounded on the Pod like you weren’t buying in on Singer. What about AL Only vs. a Silseth type?

Paul Sporer: I’d go with Silseth. Big fan of his so I’ll bet on the upside. I don’t think Singer is going to “get back” to last yr or anything bc he just wasn’t that different from 2020-21 in last year’s run. It was just the best of what this kind of skillset delivers and now he’s showing closer to the worst of it. Silseth could bust, too, but he has a brighter upside for me

Guest: Do yo believe in Matz’ comeback?

Paul Sporer: I believe he can be a useful 4th starter for a team down the stretch which makes him streamable in fantasy but always risky

Greg: Hey Paul, you buying the Pivetta breakout?  Would you drop Gavin Williams for him?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes! I did sit him v. ATL yesterday and I have no regrets missing the gem (though I’m soooo thirsty for a W, it was tough to watch one on the bench), but it adds to my confidence. We’ve seen him be good before and he’s settling beautifully into the follower role! There’s still risk, but right now he’s no worse than a team streamer!

Maris9: Is David Fry worth a pick up? He’s playing multiple positions.

Paul Sporer: Just popped another HR! I’m down to ride the hot streak in a 2-catcher league. Gotta be at least 12 teams and preferably 15+

Re: Tigers: Is it worth speccing on a Lange/Foley backup, or better to just wait?

Paul Sporer: Better to wait!

FantasyNut2007: Hey Paul, I’m about to give Elder ($13) and India ($3) for Devers ($41) and Swanson ($14) (all next yr prices). I need tons of help in the hitting categories across the board.  This is a no brainer for the Devers/Swanson side, right???

Paul Sporer: Hell yessss! That’s a great move!

RGM: What am I supposed to do with Bo bichette in an obp league?

Paul Sporer: He’s still a Top 60, just play him daily

KTP: Paul, thanks for doing these. Always a big help, really. What’s your philo in a keeper league where things don’t look very good coming into the trade deadline. Try to trade expensive studs for cheap (potential) studs?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I start assessing for next year and hoping to pick up some potential keepers. If the standings points just aren’t there, definitely want to start selling some guys

Michael: what are your go to metrics for evaluating pitchers and hitters?

Paul Sporer: K%, BB%, SwStr% are the first things I look at for both hitters & pitchers and then dive deeper from there

Pat G: Elijah Green is running a near 50% K% in A ball. That’s pretty much a death knell to a players prospect status right?

Paul Sporer: It’s still super early, but that’s devastating!!

Closer Choice: Who do better for saves ROS: Clay Holmes or Kenley Jansen?

Paul Sporer: I lean toward Kenley

Mason Storm: Would Ohtani for Strider/Arozarena in a keeper league where Ohtani is a 1:1 pick, but Strider can be kept at a 4th next year, and Randy a 7th an overpay?

Paul Sporer: Not an overpay, gotta pay big to get Shohei!!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, gotta end it here! Next week we’ll go long if there’s a big deadline to assess! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!