Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 26th, 2018

Paul Sporer: Hellloooo!!! Early chat this week (Thur instead of Fri), how’s it goin?

Good Steve: Ketel Marte or Paul DeJong ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m going DeJong. I know Marte’s had a power surge, but I still prefer DeJong’s power

Eldridge Cleaver: Hello Dr. Paul!!!  Can you diagnose the monthly trend in Stanton’s flyball %?  He’s gone from ~38% to ~29% from May through July.  His career average is 40%!  Should we expect less home runs from him ROS?  Or are monthly swings like this normal and we should expect him to revert back to his career norms?  Seems like a fairly material change for a power hitter like him.

Paul Sporer: It is a difference, but I’m not sure it’s one that’s going to impact him *greatly* because he also doesn’t need as many flyballs for HR success given his park change

Larry Hutz: This time of year is the worst for closers, almost none are safe, fear strikes the heart of every owner. Which of these closers are most likely to be traded still: Kela, Greene, Yates, Rodney?

Paul Sporer: And I think this year is as bad as any in recent memory as far being unsettled, a trend I expect to continue as teams realize that they don’t HAVE to name a capital C closer

Paul Sporer: I think all four should be good as gone, tbh. However, at some point, the market will dry up and it may not be worth it for the team moving them. I’d rank them Rodney, Kela, Greene, Yates in terms of likeliness to move

Sandy Ravage : H2H points dynasty, what would I need to add to 5 years of Soto to get  years of Betts? A top 150 player?

Paul Sporer: This is a good question for the person with Betts, tbh. Bc I could say a price and it might be nowhere near what the person with Betts believes is fair

Mike: Pham or Matt Chapman rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: I was going to say Pham bc of the speed, but it’s dried up with 2 SB since June 1st. I’ll go Chap

RMR: Jesse Winker = Austin Kearns 2.0.  So sad.

Paul Sporer: Haha, nice throwback name, but Winker’s plate skills are already better than anything Kearns showed. I guess that’s a 2.0 in essence since it’s a better version, but hopefully Winker has better health, too

Slamboni: In win now mode, in a dynasty league. With Gary Sanchez down for the next month or so, should I move him for a guy like Contreras or JT Realmuto?

Paul Sporer: Yes, plus I don’t think you’ll hate yourself over it in future years

Mike: Posey going to wake from his coma?

Paul Sporer: I mean, he’s not THAT far off his normal production. This is the lower end of his outcome range, but it’s within reason, so this just might who he is this season

Paul Sporer: New article live while chatting! http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-cutting-room-floor-from-the-top-3…

James: Activating Eflin from the DL, so have to drop Bieber, Buehler, Pivetta or Cahill.  Who should it be?

Paul Sporer: I think I’m gonna go Bieber. It’s looking like more control than command at this juncture which just leaves him prone to getting thrashed

Jedd: Pham is killing me, hold or look to deal for replacement? Any names come to mind?

Paul Sporer: Who’s available? I don’t even know what kinda league you’re in. Get Mookie Betts, I guess

Adam: Wait for Justin turner and lamehieu or Matt Chapman?

Paul Sporer: So cut one for Chap? I’d be OK cutting DJLM

Paul Sporer: Ohhhhh, just saw Winker hurt his shoulder hence the Kearns comp. Dammit.

HappyFunBall: Cervelli activated.  Trust him? Or is he going to be stuck in a 50/50 with Diaz the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: If he’s clear of these concussion issues (scary stuff), he’s the #1. His power breakout is believable, too

Pat G: Should trades be vetoed if they probably arent collusion, have a weak reasoning, and massively shift the current season? We have a keeper where we get them 3 rounds earlier than their previous season. This creates the scenario where a non-competitive team has 3 players they cant keep. A team just acquired Lindor and Altuve to shore up his two weakest holes and it makes his team the massive favorite. Even though it’s not collusion, shouldnt the spirit of fair competitive playing field be upheld?

Paul Sporer: But what did he get back? If he didn’t get anything worthwhile back, it’s hard not to see it as collusion bc otherwise what’s the point?

Kevin: Any thoughts on Yefry Ramirez? The change up seems legit.

Paul Sporer: Agreed! http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/five-arms-of-interest/

Saul Pporer: Just lost Winker. Believe in Kole Calhoun or Kepler ROS?

Paul Sporer: Go for Calhoun. Pulling out his horrific slump and lookin like himself of late

Frank: Can you rank these guys in dynasty: Albies, Altuve, J. Baez??

Paul Sporer: I think you just did

Saul Pporer: Btw. Love when kyle comes to weed whack-so funny. Also Justin’s laugh cracks me up! Great podcast

Paul Sporer: Thanks!! I’m sure Kyle will be back weed-whackin tomorrow when we record

Matt S: Would you start Guerra @ SF or Musgrove at home vs the Mets on Sunday?  I know the Mets offense is bad but they have a 101 WRC+ on the road (tied for 9th) vs 78 at home (30th).  Is that actionable info or just SSS?

Paul Sporer: Kind of a coin flip, but I’ll go Musgrove here

Me, me, pick ME!: Eovaldi to the Sox – good for Eovaldi or bad? Better team and no longer has to face the Sox, but a worse ballpark.

Paul Sporer: Ballpark effects are often overstated in the fantasy community. Sometimes they are clearly a HUGE factor, but this is a net win still for Eovaldi

Paul Sporer: :watches Eovaldi allow 8 in his first Fenway start:

Kevin: I went and looked into Votto’s profile out of curiosity, and the only two issues were Barrel % (down 24 points from 44 to 20), and FB% (down 9 points). So he’s not hitting the ball as well, but still getting average. Is this something that normally improves, or should I sell to someone who believes?

Paul Sporer: With this sharp of a power drop, I wonder if he’s playing through a nagging injury (or injuries) at this point. I know his insane second halves recently helped ppl keep the faith, but he’s got 9 HR at 1B. I’m open to dealing him as I think you can still get a strong return

Mike: Odubel for Dietrich?

Paul Sporer: Fair. I’m a Dietrich fanboy so I’ll lean his way

Big Tuna : Marcel Ozuna was dropped in my 12 tm OPS. I have $34 FAAB dollars left. Is $7-8 too much for him? He hasn’t been great

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s a measured bid and about the highest I’d go. I know the last time I worried about a Cardinal’s shoulder, he burnt me, but I’m worried about Ozuna’s for sure

Jake Junis Priest: Zimmerman has been pumpkin again of late, maybe related to some back pain? Has been tweaking pitch mix. Would you trust vs. Cleveland tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: 4 ER outings aren’t too bad IMO, though the hits allowed and 2 HRs per have been something to keep an eye on. He’s been throwing a few more changeups and the slider hasn’t been as effective, but I’m starting him v. CLE in a league where he’s worth rostering

Larry Bird: Would you move on from Moncada in a dynasty format or hold on?

Paul Sporer: Depends if the price is still good. If it’s too low, ride it out

Trap Goin’ Hamels: Jorge Bonifacio or David Fletcher (AL, OBP) – both pretty empty lines – Boni with a slight track record; Fletch seeming hotter. Opinion? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I prefer Boni’s power

AKA22: Would you give up Odubel Herrera, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Barraclough to get Aaron Nola in a deep NL only league? Is Nola enough of an upgrade over Taillon to lose the bat and closer? Still competing in all 10 5×5 categories.

Paul Sporer: Not in a deep NL only, no

Bill: H2H categories dynasty league. Trying to win in the next couple years trade Eloy for Stanton?

Paul Sporer: Yes, bc I don’t see any sort of big drop for Stanton even if Eloy emerges quickly

Nathan: Is Nick Pivetta turning into Ian Kennedy? He has a great FIP/xFIP, but he’s giving up a lot of runs!

Paul Sporer: Homers account for the discrepancy and if Pivetta continues to struggle with them, then that might not be a bad comp. Remember, Kennedy had some really nice seasons

Wayne Champagne: with Soria now a Brewer, do I pickup Jace Fry, Brad Hand, Pedro Strop or (gulp) Wily Peralta?  need saves.

Paul Sporer: Hand, I still think there’s a plausible scenario where’s the A-guy for saves. If 3 righties are due in the 9th, it’d make sense to go Allen, but otherwise it *should* be Hand

Vinbaka: Thoughts on Niko Goodrum in 12 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: Nah, there should be somebody better in 12

Henry: Does Happ going to NY change his value any?

Paul Sporer: Better team should aid win potential, but HR friendly ballpark (even more so than TOR) could exacerbate HR issue

James: Severino has struggled 3 starts in a row, any cause for concern?

Paul Sporer: None I can see. Still 14:3 K:BB in those 15 IP. A buncha hits and homers… seems like a standard rough patch that no pitcher can escape in a full season

Willie: It’s been close to a month since your SP rankings, you still pretty high on Pivetta, Musgrove, Bieber and Gibson? These guys have been killing my ERA this month for the most part. =(

Paul Sporer: New ranks on Aug 1, wanna let the trade deadline settle some things

Paul Sporer: I’ve chilled on Bieber a good bit. Just not seeing consistent command and so living in the zone is getting him killed. Not too worried about the others

Charlie: Suarez has been going crazy. How much of this is real?

Paul Sporer: I’d say a good bit of it. I’m not seeing anything in his profile that screams fluke. He was VERY close to my top 30 for ’19

Moelicious: In my 12 team league, one owner drafts 9 pitchers before taking a hitter and another owner tries to get three top 15 pitchers. This causes everyone to reach very far for pitching. What should my strategy be?

Paul Sporer: Stock up on elite hitting and work on pitching all year. It takes work, but you can manage. Plus, I’m not saying get NO pitchers in the first whatever number of rounds, but lean heavily on hitting if it keeps falling, get a top 25-30 type who you really love and go from there

baseballguy: have both morrow and doolittle on the DL in a H2H points league. already have herrera as a fill-in, and using musgrove as a SP/RP for morrow with 2 starts this week.  however, minter and norris on waivers as well as strop.  should i drop musgrove for any of them?

Paul Sporer: No, I feel like Musgrove can out do them in 1-start weeks, too, unless they get like 3-4 saves, right?

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: OBP/W/L/QS Keep 5: I’m okay to give up Rizzo and a 10th rounder for Charlie Morton, Aaron Hicks, and a 5th rounder? I wouldn’t keep Rizzo (he would).

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Slamboni: Re: Sanchez Trade. So if I offer 5 years of Sanchez for 5 years of Contreras, and the owner of Contreras asks for more, should I walk away?

Paul Sporer: Depends if they’re in contention bc I could understand them not wanting to take that hit in-season without something to cover, but if they’re rebuilding, yes I’m holding firm on a 1:!

Paul Sporer: 1:1

Kevin: How desperate would you have to be to start Manaea in Coors? I’m leaning no, but only one hitter in that line-up scares me right now.

Paul Sporer: Eek, no thank youuu

Paul Sporer: Manaea is living off BABIP, which is a mix of skill and luck. The latter is riding high for him right now and Coors is exactly the kind of place to shatter that luck in no time. Plus, he doesn’t get many Ks so there will be many opportunities for that contact to turn into hits

hscer: does Teo have too much to work on? defense discipline and base stealing are all ?’s for PT and value long-term, that seems like too many issues

Paul Sporer: He’s cut 10 pts off his K% from last year and I don’t think he’s going to turn into some 10% BB guy so I’m not sure there’s a lot of work being spent on that. Listing it out makes it look like a lot, but it’s essentially the maturation process that needs to kick in. As you get reps, you start to pick up things that will help w/all those.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: First place by a margin in Wins/Loss/QS keeper but a few of my pitching categories are lagging. Is this rotation enough to hold for the title?

DeGrom, Greinke, Morton, Buehler, Quintana, Castillo, Velasquez

Paul Sporer: Obviously your W are hurt by your ace playing for the lame ass Mets and Buehler will likely have his innings managed. Castillo and VV are super volatile. It’s a good foundation, but you have to stay diligent

Finding Nimmo: Carlos Rodon has turned in two pretty good starts in a row. Is he starting to show that pedigree again?

Paul Sporer: We’ve seen him put together a couple good ones before, I need more. I’m always intrigued by the talent, but it will take a decent stretch to really feel like there’s development

Ken Giles Right Hook: Down to my final and 20th keeper selection. I have to choose between Montas, Grandal, Chacin and Kingham. In a vacuum, who should be my final keeper?

Paul Sporer: Grandal

Jeff: What % chance would you put on alonso turning into something like Hoskins?

Paul Sporer: 38%\

Paul Sporer: cool type

Paul Sporer: typo

Paul Sporer: gotta love typo’ing the word typo

Names Namerson: Who doesn’t want to watch a ASG side game where recently retired hitters pitch to recently retired pitchers? 1000x more interesting than the celeb softball game.  I want to see if Ortiz can strike out Pedro…

Paul Sporer: Looove it

Ken Giles Right Hook: Hot take: Matt Chapman will be the more valuable fantasy baseball player when Nolan Arenado leaves Colorado

Paul Sporer: Very hot. You’d get me more if it was more valuable real life bc of his defense. I think Arenado is going to be a fine hitter if and when he leaves Colorado

Abomb: Unkeepable Scherzer for $7 Corbin smell fair if the Scherzer team is out of the running?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, turning his rental into something

HappyFunBall: Would you give up Betts to get deGrom (and Wil Myers as a replacement bat) in a keeper?

Paul Sporer: Only if my offense is incredible and I desperately need Ks and ratios

Dallas: Auction calculator puts Joey Gallo in the top 30 among hitters ROS. He’s been top 50 based on Season to date. Doesn’t feel like it haha

Paul Sporer: Still has 25 HR and 3 SB despite that horrific .190 AVG

Turgid: I’m in a keeper league where every year some team at the bottom makes a ridiculous dump trade to a team at the top. I’m not completely opposed to this type of trade. I’ve been on ends of them (usually the beneficiary, thanks FanGraphs). But every year they spark a controversy over “the integrity of the league.” I’m thinking there should be some minor penalty for finishing last. Not enough that someone would want to quit the league, but enough to give someone a reason to better negotiate their dump trade. Thinking something like loss of $10 auction budget. Or pay the first team not in the money. Sorry for the very long question, but do you have any ideas?

Paul Sporer: Can take auction budget or some FAAB for the next year which is what Tout Wars does. you’re right that you gotta strike the balance between encouraging trying all year and so punitive that last place just quits every year. Or if you have a minor league draft, you can 1st pick to the first spot out of the money.

Quinton McCracken: Whats the best way to predict what relievers are going to pitch on a certain day? I know we can’t be 100% sure but do you have any tricks?

Paul Sporer: Just see how recently they’ve been used and how many off days they usually get. Hard to see a guy going 3 in a row. It does happen, but I wouldn’t predict it. Meanwhile, a good RP isn’t going to get more than 2 days off in a row in most cases

Turgid: Worried about Kluber?

Paul Sporer: Long term more so just because he has a trash fastball

Scott Kingery: Are you holding me in a keeper league despite the poor current production?

Paul Sporer: Depends how many keepers, but yes I’m looking to hang on

Billy Bathhouse: Thoughts on Nimmo ROS?

Paul Sporer: Think he’ll produce an ..820-.850ish OPS w/some pop and speed

FinkleIsEinhorn: How would you rank these SP pickups in a VERY deep h2h points league?                                                                             Ryan Borucki
Pablo Lopez
Yefry Ramirez
Sean Reid-Foley (speculating that he comes up)

Paul Sporer: Ramirez, Borucki, Lopez, SRF

Jeff: Think Domingo Santana ever see the light day

Paul Sporer: Eventually, but it might require a trade out

Bill: Your 2019 Top 30 Cutting Room Floor really puts faith in Muncy. Love what he’s doing but do you see any holes that could lead to this being a one year wonder?

Paul Sporer: There’s everything we want in a stable power hitter, but I understand the reservations given the late bloom and short track record. He obviously won’t hold this insane pace, but a solid 30-something HR hitter is very useful on a strong team

Jim: I know you’re the low guy on him this year, but think conforto might finally be healthy? ASB certainly seems to have helped that shoulder

Paul Sporer: Ya he definitely looks strong out of the break and health was my only concern as I believe a healthy Conforto is a stud, so I’m intrigued by seeing him rake lately

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Peace…