Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 12th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! Thanks for coming out!

Faz: does Dansby Swanson continue his strong ‘22 campaign?

Paul Sporer: I think so, he’s hinted at star upside multiple times before!

Faz: Brandon Lowe a buy lowe? Story vs Lowe ROS excluding steals?

Paul Sporer: Sans SBs, it’s reeeaaalllyyy close IMO. Lowe working back from injury and Story hit in the hand yesterday. I’ll lean slightly toward Lowe if we’re not caring about SBs

Yerminator: “I’m back”

Paul Sporer: I’d love to see a big 2H from Yerminator!!

Rodney: Isaac Paredes – you buying the sell-out for pull power as a sustainable change? Looks like he can be something – esp with the positional flexibility.

Paul Sporer: Initially it was a pure sell out with like a 55% FB rate, but now it’s at a fair 46%. Additionally his K% and SwStr% aren’t very high, either. I’m definitely down to ride the lightning here and see how it goes

Don Juan: Is there any player who is widely unowned who you have your eye on for the second half as a difference maker?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been a Harold Ramirez fan since his TOR minor league days (some might even be bigger fans dating back to his PIT minors days) and he’s still just 37% at Y! and 19% at ESPN! He’s hitting .333/.381/.453 and batting in the middle of the order damn near daily

Guest: Is Nelson Cruz a HOFer?

Paul Sporer: Kinda depends how the electorate looks during his voting period & how they feel about DH types. It’s close, but probably no

Martin: Is cronenworth’s best skill the fact that he bats 1st, 2nd or 3rd? He seems, downright avg tbh but still carries a decent razzball ranking YTD.

Paul Sporer: You nailed it! Full burn and batting high up drive the value. Positional flexibility with volume are his assets. Great 15-teamer.

Bob: Who is your preference at 2B–Ketal Marte or Jorge Polanco?

Paul Sporer: Polanco for me

Brian Snitker: Why do I continue to bat Michael Harris 9th

Paul Sporer: I’d say mostly the hierarchy thing of being a rookie on a team vets. He’s been excellent, but it’s 163 PA, too, so they don’t wanna overreact. Also his batting ninth could be helping a bit in terms of how he’s approached (that isn’t to suggest he’d melt if he batted higher or anything). I know we’d like more volume from him, but I’m not too worried about it overall

seth: was 2021 a flash in the pan for Tyler O’Neill? Do you think he can get back to a 30-20 threat next year?

Paul Sporer: I wasn’t the biggest fan coming into the season. The plate skills just didn’t scream sustainability. The raw skills are there and the health has been a big part of the problems this year, but I’m not exactly floored by this https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/5-players-im-removing-from-my-draft-…

Pitching: Hi Paul, who do you prefer ROS: Perez or Baz?

Paul Sporer: I imagine that’s Martin Perez? I’d still lean Shane Baz. His volume could be challenged at times, but I still want him over Perez

Sean: was the cinci outing for baz just a rookie hiccup? he was cruising before that

Paul Sporer: Ya he has 2 mega duds in 6 starts. It’s just volatility that comes with such a young arm. I was worried that he’d relieve after returning from the injury and was wrong there, but I can’t rule out them putting him in the pen for a spell or two to protect his IP over the 2H

Bob: Are you all in on Corbin Carroll when he gets the call? When do you think he’s up?

Paul Sporer: Very! No idea when he’s up, but I looove the player! Maybe if he gets going in AAA (He has just 2 gms there so far) over the next 2 wks or so and then gets the call after the deadline?

Pablo: Leody or H Ramirez? (H2H 6×6 with OPS/SLG)

Paul Sporer: If you don’t NEEEED the SBs, I’m going Ramirez for sure… and I say that as a Leody stan

seth: Brujan got demoted but hasnt played yet in AAA, I can only assume he is being traded

Paul Sporer: Hmm that’s really interesting. No news of any sort of injury, either. Could be cooking up a trade, still wild to just sit out a week with no word

Dave: Is Miggy a sneaky SB play now?

Paul Sporer: LOL, yessss

Sean: you starting either greene or lodolo in stl this weekend?

Paul Sporer: In 15s, yes. In 10s/12s, maybe… team dependent. Certainly not must-start in those formats. StL isn’t destroying the ball lately, but they are still an offense I respect

Insert Witty Name Here: Do you prefer playing in a league where one or so guys dominate this most years (like MLB) or more parity (NFL)?

Paul Sporer: Whattya mean? Individual players? Fantasy? Teams?

Paul Sporer: NFL’s parity is as overrated as MLB’s is underrated in terms of teams and playoffs

Red Clay: Cronenworth or Semien in a points format?

Paul Sporer: Semien, still. His bottom line is still rough, but he’s hitting .282/.340/.547 with 12 HR and 9 SB since getting that first HR on May 28th. It’ll take a bit more to work off the .497 OPS from his first 43 gms, but he’s pretty much back over the last 6 wks

Bob: Do you think Taylor Ward has hit a wall. He seems to be on a downslide. Maybe the All-Star break will give him a refreshing break and come back strong?

Paul Sporer: More like expected regression. I’m a big fan, but never saw him as a 1.000 OPS level talent. I think he’s a mid-to-high .800s. If healthy, he’s still v good. A lot of the regression came in one particularly down stretch when he was also nicked (.409 OPS in 53 PA) but in his last 20 it’s more of a palatable regression (.774 OPS, 2 HR in 86 PA).

JC: Bregman seems back to being Bregman. What do you expect in the 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: I really liked him for a bounceback this year and remain in that camp!

kevinthecomic: Thanks for chatting, Paul! I have a roster crunch coming in my dynasty league as some minor leaguers lose their minor league eligibility. I have to drop five of the following: Daniel Lynch, Dennis Santana, Kyle Isbel, Luis Gonzalez (SF), Jake Meyers, Edward Olivares, Randal Grichuk, Jonathan Villar, Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta. I would like to keep one of Villar and Escobar for MI backup, but no restrictions/implications otherwise. I’m thinking the two pitchers and Isbel are three of the five. Not sure for the last two though. Categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS and K-BB, ERA, WHIP, QS, SV+H. I am in contention this year. Thanks again!

Paul Sporer: Tough group. I think Isbel could fall into a full role when Beni and maybe Michael A. Taylor (good thing they let him f’n pitch for no good reason!!!) so I’m inclined to hang onto him. Lynch and Santana easy 2 off rip (even though I like Lynch a bit long-term). Peralta could be dealt into a smaller role. Escobar’s production is pretty dry, so keep Villar for the MI you want and some SB upside. And then for the 5th, I wonder if Grichy is the cut. I understood the excitement of him going to Coors, but he’s been rough with a .779 OPS at home & .520 on the road, so I think he’s the 5th.

Micah: Who are you grabbing if you need steals and have to pick one? Taveras or Baddoo

Paul Sporer: I’m not quitting Baddoo! I’ve taken my appropriate L for spring hype as anyone who jumped on board with me and drafted him has definitely cut him at this point, but I’m diving back in and hoping to see him shine in the 2H!

Deathclaw: Is Yordan possibly the best hitter in baseball right now? Underlying stats make a good case.

Paul Sporer: He is firmly in the convo!

Clemson: If the Orioles keep this up are they really going to sell at the deadline?

Paul Sporer: They should absolutely sell Jorge Lopez in the same way the Mariners traded Kendall Graveman. Baltimore’s surging bullpen is a major reason why they’re playing so well in the first place so they can easily replace him with Bautista. Unless the offers are just nothing, Baltimore would be insane to not trade a 29-yr old waiver RP spiking a big season

James: Hi Paul, Is there anything physically wrong with Kopech and Giolito

Paul Sporer: Not that we know of publicly, but guys are often grinding through something once the season starts. I’d think so more with Kopech tbh w/his velo dip. Gio feels like inconsistent command being the primary culprit which can be injury, but he still shows his brilliant side w/enough regularity that I think he’s healthy & just figuring his stuff out a bit. He looked great in his 2 west coast starts before a couple tough IP at DET. I’d be willing to buy Gio for the 2H in a trade league, not I’m not chasing Kopech (just holding the many shares I already have lol)

Jake: Is Morel on the decline?

Paul Sporer: Yep, expected regression… those Ks were always going to catch up, especially as the BABIP smoothed out. Not only that, but some solid opponents in July, too

Kate: What do we make of a guy like Lance Lynn who’s velo is down, but who missed so much time to start the year?  What are the odds he gets it back sometime this year?  Or in the offseason?

Paul Sporer: It screams health to me. Hard to really see it any other way right now. Definite bench for now. I’m trying to avoid the cut, but if you gotta do it in a 10 or 12, I get it!

James: Will Chapman regain his closer role after the all star break

Paul Sporer: Really depends if Holmes relinquishes it. Yesterday sucked, but he spotted the league 4 ER without getting an out and still only moved his ERA to 1.37 lol

Dan: In contention but decimated by injuries. Would you be comfortable, if you didn’t need the SBs, trading Albies to a rebuilding squad for upgrades at other positions (and for other keepers) with the intention of keeping Gorman? Albies is so fun but such a streaky player.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m cool with that. I adore Albies, but we want championships, baby! And if trading him gives you the best shot, gotta do it!

Paul Sporer: Quick interlude – need to let the dogs out & grab a snack from the kitchen, pardon me!

Gavin: What’s your confidence level in Joe Ryan ROS?

Paul Sporer: Pretty high! I’m a Joe Ryan mega fan! Plan for a mid-3s ERA and sub-1.15 while knowing you could definitely get more!

Deathclaw: Do you think Trevor Rogers can rebound in the 2nd half? At least enough to restore some dynasty appeal?

Paul Sporer: Depends almost entirely on the changeup IMO. It just hasn’t been there consistently and it’s supposed to be his A pitch

Colton: Is George Kirby worth picking up now for cheap in dynasty leagues? Or do you think he’s someone you should sit on till the offseason?

Guest: Need a Whit Merrifield place holder in 14 man points league.  154 batters rostered, considering  Matt Carpenter or Harold Ramirez and open to suggestions?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely! If his price has depressed, I’m jumping in! I haven’t lost any confidence for the long term!

Catch-up: Stephenson or Varsho ROS?

Paul Sporer: Sticking with Varsho, though I was huge on T Step coming into the year, so I don’t really have a wrong choice here. The SBs for Varsho are enough to give him the edge, though (I know he’s 5-for-9, but I doubt they really slow him down)

John: I think arraez and kwan should arm wrestle to solve this dispute.

Paul Sporer: 100%

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: Indeed!

Yoan: Yoan Moncada?  Buy low or run away?

Paul Sporer: What are we buying? His only great fantasy year is the offense-inflated 2019. He’s better than 47 wRC+ but there just isn’t enough fantasy juice here. Name value drives interest more than anything else at this point. He’s at .241/.339/.385 with 14 HR and 2 SB per 600 PA in 1012 PA.

John: Do you see the orioles being major players in free agency? I feel they will spend this offseason and have to overpay (kind of like the Werth contract with the Nats).

Paul Sporer: Too hard to say right now. Really depends how things develop over the remainder of the season, but I do think they will be open to spending and doing that Werth-type deal or at least a high impact 5+ yr deal when they find the right player

Yo-Yo: If you had to replace Garver with the catching fodder in free agency, would you go after Keibert Ruiz, Cal Raleigh, or hope that Carson Kelly has a resurgence in him? 5×5 OBP

Paul Sporer: Unless your AVG is really hurting, I’d go for Cal Raleigh.

Bandon Brelt: Hey Paul, what do you think about Patrick Sandoval going forward? I think I read that his last start had his lowest % of fastballs thrown, which to my layman brain would bode well going forward. Trying to decide between him, Perez, and Thor

Paul Sporer: I love Sandoval and definitely prefer him in that trio. He is a WHIP risk being so changeup dependent, but I just love the upside with his swing-and-miss stuff

Bob: Keegan Thompson’s numbers look real nice–7 wins, low ERA and WHIP and nearly 1K per inning. Do you think he keeps it up?

Paul Sporer: The Ws are great, but 3 are relief wins so I’m certainly not banking on him for a W boost, but he has definitely impressed since joining the rotation mostly full-time (1 relief app. in this sample): 3.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 15% K-BB in 54 IP

Dave: Does Castellanos get back on track this year?

Paul Sporer: If he finds his power stroke, but it is absent right now: 12 pt. dip in Hard Hit rate to 35% (league average: 39%), Barrel% down 3 pts to 8% which is exactly lg average. Groundball rate is up 4 pts, too. I’m not cutting him anywhere because I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he found it and went off. Has he had any nagging injuries this year? He could be grinding through something and maybe the break is the perfect time

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta cap it at an hour this week, got a guest spot to record soon! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!