Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 25th, 2023 by Paul Sporer January 25, 2023 The transcript is now available! 3:00 Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out! 3:00 Nate: Hey Paul, quick breakdown of the Mondesi deal? Thanks! 3:01 Paul Sporer: He is still SUUUUCH an injury risk that it’s hard to get too excited, but just him being in the news will probably raise his price. I’m OK taking the shot anything past pick-200 as he can make an impact in as few as 75 games, but don’t put all your SB eggs in his basket! 3:01 ScottTINSTAAPP: Vegas Main Event Saturday is officially 2 months away, can’t wait! 3:01 Paul Sporer: I am so excited already!!! 3:01 Oil Can Baggins: Hey Paul, if you had any hints for market manipulation on OOTP in advance of your new set dropping on Thursday – could you very cryptically hint at it? If I should load up on historical Tigers, blink twice. 3:01 Paul Sporer: Tryin to Pelosi me out here! 3:02 panictime: Do you have any Ottoneu teams? Which league(s)? 3:02 Paul Sporer: Justin and I will be running a team together this year! 3:02 Ed: Hi Paul! Which pitcher would you rather lock in for three years – $6 L. Castillo or $1 Cease? Both great deals, obviously, but is the presumably better health forcast for Castillo worth the extra $5? Thank you! 3:02 Paul Sporer: Tremendous deals, but I do think Castillo is worth the extra $5 because of his skills. He has just proven to be the better pitcher and Cease’s command still leaves a wiiiide range of outcomes for him 3:02 Fill in the _____: ______ will be the leadoff batter for the St Louis Cardinals on May 1st 3:03 Paul Sporer: Tomars Nootman 3:05 panictime: Salted Nootbaar 3:05 Paul Sporer: Mmmm, Nootbaaaaarrrr 3:07 Rickey: Do you like Dom Smith and/or Candelario as playing time bargains? 3:07 Paul Sporer: I do, yes. Park improvements for both and standard regression should make both useful deep lg scoops 3:08 Larri: Aaron civale or mitch Keller? Highest upside for dynasty? 3:09 Paul Sporer: Civale for me. Keller was better last yr w/his new found velo, but still not super fantasy-relevant while I see Civale improving that ERA based on his core skills 3:10 Matt: You have pick #5 in FYPD draft, and Jones, Holliday, Termarr, and Green are all gone. Who is your guy at #5 with the highest upside? 3:12 Paul Sporer: I’m certainly open to Senga/Yoshida, but if you prefer a younger player, I’d go Cam Collier or Brooks Lee 3:12 Jason: What pitchers are going to have the hardest time adjusting to a pitch clock and throw over limit? 3:16 Paul Sporer: I wish I knew that ahead of time! However you might find some potential strugglers by seeing who currently takes the longest with our Pace stat: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=1… (for more on Pace: https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/pace/) 3:16 ScottTINSTAAPP: How do you see the Royals infield playing time breaking down with Mondesi gone? I like Michael Massey’s barrel rate and skills and I think there’s a chance he can work his way into every day PT but it’s a touch crowded there with Witt, Lopez, Dozier, Eaton and Massey between 2B, 3B & SS 3:19 Paul Sporer: I also like Massey and have been looking to get some shares in my Draft Champions lgs (50 rd draft & hold for those unfamiliar w/the format). Dozier could be pushed out of PT if he doesn’t show something, too 3:19 Adam P.: Oops, trying again. NL only, 10 team, 23 active and 17 reserves. What do you think of these possible keeper salaries: Edward Cabrera $10. Lane Thomas $15. And Nolan Arenado $40? Thanks. 3:24 Paul Sporer: I’d have to know the inflation to decide on Arenado, but I’m not completely against it if the studs go like $60+. Between the other 2, I lean toward Thomas even at the higher price as I think he can be a solid double-double bat (10+ HR and SB) 3:24 Rob: Forever keeper – Oneil Cruz or Strider. Roto. 3:25 Paul Sporer: I usually lean hitter in these kinda picks, but I’m just not sure Cruz will be able to consistently outrun his ugly plate skills and be as good as his peaks suggest so I’ll go with Strider and his insane stuff! 3:28 Pat G: Carrasco or Megill for a dynasty league? Team is win now, but my pitching depth laps the field already (McClanahan, Scherzer, Rodon, Wheeler, Castillo, Lynn, Webb, Snell, S Gray, Taillon) 3:30 Paul Sporer: I’m still going to lean Carrasco because he has a rotation spot. Both have legit upside so give me the guy with the job! 3:30 Guest: Hi Paul! 3:30 Paul Sporer: Hello! 3:30 Rob: I see some people hyping Cristian Javier based on skills and others fading him based on a six man rotation. What’s your forecast? 3:34 Paul Sporer: Are they going 6-man? I haven’t seen anything on that. I lean toward loving Javier because his skills are just so good and he’s kinda the AL’s Strider. He is just so overpowering that even when planning for regression on his 2.54 ERA, it’s hard not to see a strong season coming this year 3:34 ScottTINSTAAPP: yea me too, just grabbed Massey in round 31 of my current DC…I think he’s even Main Event viable, seems like an ideal reserve round bench hitter with some upside 3:34 Paul Sporer: I can totally see that, especially if he secures his spot throughout Spring 3:34 Galen: Love me some Nick Gordon, but where does the playing time come from? 3:37 Paul Sporer: Everywhere? He seems like a perfect super utility type that spells guys at all 3 OF spots plus 2B, 3B, and SS. While Arraez leaving doesn’t directly help him because he’s not going to play 1B, it is one less mouth to feed so it’s still a positive for his PT. I like dual-eligibility reserve, especially when it includes infield & outfield capability (currently 2B/OF) 3:37 CJ: Hey Paul – thanks for hosting a chat! I’m in a H2H league that also includes OBP and SLUG as categories. I have the first overall pick. I feel like I have to take Judge, right? 3:37 Paul Sporer: Yes, or Ohtani if you can use him as a hitter & pitcher 3:40 Oil Can Baggins: Do you have concerns long term dynasty value wise about MJ Melendez losing C eligibility? Should I try and get out now before it happens or worth hanging onto in a wait and see approach? 3:42 Paul Sporer: No, I’m not too worried about him losing the eligibility especially as Perez ages. Worst case if he does, he probably still has enough talent to maintain viability as just an OF. I wouldn’t actively try to trade him in fear of lost C, only if it truly makes your team better 3:43 Nick: I have too many keepers in my keep 5 12 team points league. I’m leaning towards keeping the 5 cheapest hitters but wanted to see what you thought: 3:43 Nick: J. Urias SP 7th Round W. Smith C 10th Round F Tatis SS 13th Round A. Riley 3B 15th Round J. Rodriguez OF 17th Round K Tucker OF 18th Round R Ray SP 20th Round V. Pasquantino 1B 25th Round N. Lodolo SP 25th Round 3:43 Paul Sporer: Yes, it’s the 5 cheapest hitters for me.. Tatis, Riley, JRod, Tucker, and Vinnie P! 3:44 Trader Bob: Choosing between Colas and Mervis in a league where defense matters / DHing is a problem, which has me leaning toward Colas — but am I overthinking this and risking missing out on a monster? 3:44 Trader Bob: in re Colas vs Mervis it’s a dynasty league I should mention 3:45 Paul Sporer: I don’t think you are. Both have legit upside and given that the Cubs have done so much to block Mervis and he’s unlikely to do much besides DH or play some 1B, I lean toward Colas 3:45 Quarantino Martinez: Hi Paul. AL only question. $1 Glasnow vs. $14 Clase+$6 Tristan McKenzie? 3:45 Paul Sporer: Take the Glasnow shot. I know the health concerns are there, but his upside is still SO rich 3:45 Daniel: Who would you bet as to who ends up closing for Texas and Oakland? 3:45 Paul Sporer: Leclerc & May 3:45 Insert Witty Name Here: I was the proud owner of Strider last year and enjoyed watching his starts, even as a Phillies fan. In your colleague Jeff Zimmerman’s book, it talks about two pitch pitchers aren’t a great investment. How much would you agree with me that Striders two pitches are elite enough to be an outlier to that two pitch pitcher thought process? 3:46 Paul Sporer: Totallyyyyy understand the 2-pitch pitcher concern, but also agree that Strider is a bit different in that both pitches are so extremely good that I’m not super worried about it 3:46 Galen: Do you try to avoid rostering too many players from the same team? Or just take best player regardless of team? 3:46 Paul Sporer: I don’t worry much about it, tbh 3:46 Gabe: Thoughts on Nolan Gorman, long-term? 3:47 Paul Sporer: Standard big pop, bad AVG guy 3:48 Dylan’s Dog: Would you take Castillo over Strider too? Was surprised you passed on Cease given he has more WAR, more IP, more Ks, more upside than Castillo, over the last two years… 3:49 Paul Sporer: In fairness, there’s a lot of double counting there. He has more WAR bc of the IP & Ks so I don’t see those are 3 separate things. A big part of it is Castillo getting out of Cincy. I think he has legit Cy Young upside in Seattle. That said, I do still favor Strider 3:49 Marcus: Are people sleeping a bit on Nolan Gorman? Yeah, the strikeout rate was high, but he’s a sorely needed lefty in that lineup with great power and could benefit from the shift rules. Why can’t he be discount Brandon Lowe? 3:50 Paul Sporer: He can be, but that ends being the all-or-nothing power type I mentioned earlier. Low AVG, lots of HRs 3:50 Hal: Hunter Brown, invest (Dynasty League)? 3:50 Paul Sporer: Absolutely! I love him, even without a guaranteed rotation spot right now 3:50 Guest: Standard 5×5 roto league. Please rank these 3 pitchers. 3:50 Guest: FValdez, SBieber, or CRodon. Thank you. 3:51 Paul Sporer: Reverse of how you’ve listed them: Rodon/Bieber/Valdez. Rodon the clear leader, but Bieber also has some space clear of Valdez for me, too 3:52 Just doing my best: Last keeper in a 12 teamer – E. Escobar or A. Baddoo? 3:52 Paul Sporer: I am going back to the Baddoo well again this year… thankfully at a muuuuch cheaper price 3:52 Guest: I see most projections anticipate a platoon for Casas in BOS. Is the belief that the Red Sox would continue to use Bobby Dalbec? Or bring someone else in? Why platoon Casas with 7/6 K/BB against LHP in the majors and a .362 OBP vs LHP in triple A in 22? 3:55 Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t take anything – good or bad – from his 25 MLB PA vL. And while he did have that OBP v them in AAA last yr, you conveniently left out the .221 AVG and .256 SLG! He also had a .219/.289/.301 line against ’em in 2021. Dalbec hasn’t done a ton in the majors, but the one thing he’s done is hit lefties: .268/.333/.522 in 330 PA. The platoon just makes sense right now 3:55 Josh: Who are your personal breakout picks for 3B if you were to end up missing out on the Top 8 or so at the position? 3:56 Paul Sporer: I’d recommend the 3B pod where I highlighted my love for Jung and Ke’Bryan Hayes! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1127-20… 3:57 Guest: To Galen. I rostered 5 jays and won last year 3:57 Paul Sporer: And you’d do it again, I bet as they still have plenty of desirable players! 3:58 Guest: Keep both muncy and Chapman at $19 each? I can’t bring myself to drop one 3:58 Paul Sporer: Yes to Muncy, but I’d probably throw Chap back and look to rebuy… unless your league’s inflation suggests he will go well above $19 3:59 Blahhh: can Giancarlo stay healthy this year? 3:59 Paul Sporer: I mean, he caaaaan… whether or not he will remains to be seen and I’d bet against given his track record and age (33) 3:59 Back at it: Culling my roster for keepers this year–is Sewald going to stay the real deal in Seattle for 2023? 3:59 Put your munoz where your mouth is: Do you think Munoz gets saves in Seattle this year? 4:01 Paul Sporer: Definitely see both nabbing saves this year as Seattle has been clear about liking the mix-and-match method and thankfully both should continue to put up enough Ks and strong ratios to still contribute even as less than full-time closers 4:01 KCbbq: Your expectations for Torkelson this season? Read where he said he was constantly changing things during the season and has now gone back to what worked in the past. 4:02 Paul Sporer: I’m not quitting him. It was a dreadful rookie year, but far too soon to write him off entirely and he’s priced to buy. I’ll have multiple shares 4:02 Deathclaw: Any worries about Jazz suffering a little offensively while learning a brand new position this year? 4:02 Paul Sporer: It’s just so hard to tell on things like that. It could absolutely happen, or he instantly takes to it and has a breakout year… so I wouldn’t put tooooo much into it 4:03 Daniel: What do you think of Zack Eflin? Can the Rays take him to another level? They must see something they really like with that contract right? 4:05 Paul Sporer: Yeah I was surprised by the deal he got as I thought he was going to remain a reliever, but there’s almost no chance TB is paying that much for an RP. He has a deep arsenal that I can see TB molding into form and maximizing his skills. We’ve seen flashes throughout his career and I wouldn’t be at all shocked to see a solid mid-3.00s ERA from him this year 4:06 Paul Sporer: Wish I could go longer, but I’m booked to the hilt right now and need to get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!