Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 21st, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

MochiBetts: Currently very deep in pitching for dynasty and have Skubal, was waffling a bit and leaning towards trying to trade him after your conversation with PitchersList but then I saw the tweet that he hit 100 on the gun yesterday.  And then tweets about him re-working the slider/cutter a bit, so now what do I do?  Because he 100% got that dog in him.

Paul Sporer: I love Skubes and definitely want to keep him where possible as I do see the full scale breakout coming this year. You could always leverage the rest of your pitcher depth to make a trade if you’re looking to get some more hitting

Guest: Hey Paul, pick one keeper in 12 team roto: O. Cruz 12th, Casas 18th or Royce 22nd (already have a 3B and only one util spot with no CI). I have been having a real hard time picking.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Dang, that extra context does make it tougher to keep Royce or he’d be my slamdunk choice. That said, I’m not averse to filling the UT spot if it’s the best option for my team. I thiiiink it might still be, but if you just don’t want to do that, then I’d go Casas and his big time pop

Brian: Should I keep Nathaniel Lowe at $10?  The league is a points league (BBs count, Ks don’t).  15 team mixed. $260 budget.  Key rule:  $5 minimum salary.

Paul Sporer: Without knowing the rest of the squad, $10 seems fine for Lowe. I feel like he’s been a bit forgotten after coming back to earth from his 2022 breakout, but I still like him a lot and want as many piece of the TEX lineups as I can get

Tuberculosis: Who leads the TB infield in ABs and how close is it to a full season’s worth?

Paul Sporer: I’ll say Yandy with upper-500s PA

Moving Fast: How high is the helium going to get on Rodon? Should I start shopping my $19 AL only share?

Paul Sporer: It depends how good he looks in Spring Training. You can play chicken a bit and wait to see how he looks in spring. A few good outings and his price will soar

Bill: A Rosario at 1.5 or IKF at 7.5, what signing do you like better

Paul Sporer: While I am a fan of defense, I’ll take the $6 mil discount and go with Rosario despite his lack of a glove

KC Pain: 6×6 keep 2 cut 2 at 1B, Drury, Naylor, Rizzo, Vaughn?

Paul Sporer: Think I’m cutting Vaughn and Rizzo. I think Rizzo can bounce back if healthy bc he was SO good before the head injury, but he’s a bit of an unknown right now so him and Vaughn are the low men on the list for me

KC Pain: How do you think the CLE 1B situation shakes down?  Was Naylor not good enough defensively there?

Paul Sporer: I think Naylor’s glove is fine, but he has a sketchy health track record which might be why they’ve got a couple options who could take up some 1B reps in Manzardo and Rule 5 pick Deyvison De Los Santos. I doubt they get him out there much, but Naylor caannn play some OF, too. I think DLS gets a chance to shine with him and Naylor holding down 1B/DH to start so I’m not sure Manzardo breaks camp with the team

Mark: Hey Paul, 12 team head to head league where you can keep players for 3 years. Pick 2: Royce Lewis, CJ Abrams, or Wyatt Langford. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Very nice trio to work with and I don’t think there are any wrong answers, but I lean toward Royce and Abrams. Langford’s upside is rich, but he’s unproven and we don’t even know if he will break camp so I’m less inclined to keep him in a 12-teamer

Brad: Rank ‘em (OBP): Friedl, Stott, Lane Thomas, Abrams…thanks!

Paul Sporer: Friedl is my #1 there followed closely by Abrams despite his lack of a standout and then Stott and Thomas are a bit behind those top 2

Boog Powell: Have you ever been in a situation in a keeper league where you have a player everyone knows your are not keeping ahead of the draft, and as a result will only get low ball offers on them? Do you kind of always have to eventually take the low offer or is it ever wise to just sit on the player, not hand an opponent an advantage, and just keep them in the draft pool?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’ve definitely been there and if I can lowballed too much, I will throw them back and try to get ’em myself. Sometimes I will just take one of the deals to get something, especially if there is no chance the player is going to make it to me in the draft. It can be a rough situation bc you understand why your opponents aren’t making huge offers, but it can be difficult to take the lowball

Queen Frostine: 12 team standard roto, $160 budget auction league…Final keeper question…who you got: $2 Yanier Diaz, $2 Walker Buehler, $20 Jose Altuve, $2 Kyle Bradish?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s an interesting group. I think it comes down to Diaz v. Buehler for me and I lean toward Diaz. At that price, you have plenty of room for him to fallback off his 2023 rates and still be solid while still having the major upside

Axe: Who do think has the best sophomore year: Eury Perez, Bobby Miller, or Grayson Rodriguez?

Paul Sporer: Suuuch an appealing trio. While I have interest in all of them, I’m definitely more of a Bobby Miller guy. I just think he has a great shot to take the ace leap this year (the other 2 do, too, but Miller is also on the best team of the 3)

Freddy: Suwinski as a 4th of in a 12 team league, thumbs up or down?

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan!!

Guest: Langford immediate fantasy stud?

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to ever say for sure, but he looks like a ready made stud capable of deliver massive fantasy production immediately

Deep Cuts: Dipping my toes into DCs this year, and hooo boy are the late 30s – early 40s rough, particularly to find pitchers. Who are some arms you like in that range? I tried going arm heavy early, but am still wanting to add a few options in that range from RP to SP.

Paul Sporer: DL Hall is probably going higher now that he’s in Milwaukee, but I like him. Gavin Stone & Michael Grove as key Dodgers backups, Michael Lorenzen, Hurston Waldrep, Brandon Williamson, Anthony DeSclafani, Joey Cantillo, Spencer Turnbull, Mitch Spence, Jake Eder, Cade Cavalli

RK: Kiriloff career RC+: 104; Brendon Rodgers: 85 in almost twice as many plate appearances…I understand Kiriloff needs to show health but disagree with the premise that he hasn’t performed when he’s played thus far

Paul Sporer: Who said he hasn’t performed when he’s played? Was that Justin? He definitely performs when he plays, he just doesn’t play because of his paper wrists!

Free Kyle Manzardo: Think Manzo wins the 1B job out of ST in Believeland?

Paul Sporer: I do not, no. Discussed CLE’s 1B situation earlier if you wanna do a Ctrl-F for Manzardo, but I think they give Deyvison De Los Santos a shot. I’ll  be monitoring it in spring, but I could see Manzo headed back to AAA initially

lYLE: Which side would you rather have in dynasty keeper. Tucker/Jung or Riley/Kirby? H2H league

Paul Sporer: Ooooh that is tough. I generally lean toward hitters in dynasty situations, but I really like that Riley/Kirby combo. I thiiink that’s my lean, but it’s really close, good trade if it’s a 2-for-2 we’re looking at here

TheVeganPagan: Is Hunter The Man for Saves in WAS? Worth a $10 Keeper Gamble in 12 5×5 NL?

Paul Sporer: Ooh I don’t think so. Too expensive for a job that won’t be super fruitful even if he is the undisputed guy, but I just don’t think he’s the guaranteed guy right now

Paul Sporer: (sorry had to let the dogs out)

Haymos325: Who would you rather keep $24 Casas, $48 Gunnar, or $8 Trevor Story?

Paul Sporer: I think I go full bargain and take Story at $8!

Michael Trout: Who to take at 200 overall with a full SP staff already: Kelly, Morton, Berrios, or Pepiot?

Paul Sporer: Pepiot! I’m a huge fan of his and can’t wait to see how he follows up his breakthrough last year

Rick Manning: Manzo, Shanuel, Busch, Noda, for 2024

Paul Sporer: I’m still a fan of Busch and excited to see him finally get a chance (hopefully!), but I’m a sneaky Noda fan. Solid Rule 5 season last year and I think he could be a mid-20s power guy this year. The tough part is that his AVG likely won’t rise a ton (if at all) and being on OAK keeps the R/RBI in check so his ceiling capped a bit, but he’s actually my pick here, especially at his bargain basement price

TheVeganPagan: How are leagues addressing Bryce “the American Ohtani” Eldridge for Farm Drafts? The Giants say he will focus on Hitting, for now, but what happens if he is drafted this year as a Hitter and then 2 years from now pulls an Ohtani? (We separated Ohtani this year, but just him. Any leagues addressing future Ohtani situations in their rules now? – thanks

Paul Sporer: I don’t have an answer here but it’s a good Q so I wanted to see if anyone else had some thoughts on it. I’m super intrigued by Eldridge and I have been wondering if Ohtani’s success would yield a new crop of 2-way players

JesseTheBody: Keeper league. Jazz at $17 or Jackson Holliday at $11?

Paul Sporer: I’m going with Jazz. Holliday’s upside is amazing there’s a lot of excitement, but I’m not sure he’s a fantasy god from day 1. Jazz’s primary issue is health and while that is a big issue, I know that if healthy he’ll be a monster

TheVeganPagan: I see a number of fantasy sites, including this one, that ranks my Mclain higher than his infield mate EDLC – I love this, but wonder why? – Any insights? – thanks

Paul Sporer: I think McLain’s plate skills are much better than EDLC’s. I know McLain K’d a lot in his MLB sample last year, too, and didn’t walk much but skills coming up were markedly better and even w/last year’s Ks, he didn’t have the same kind of swinging strike rate that EDLC had. I just think the range of outcomes for EDLC is SO vast whereas a healthy McLain (which is operative here bc news is that the oblique is still bugging him a bit) can be an absolute fantasy monster with 5-category production

Cleveland arms: Do you prefer Tanner Bibbee or Gavin williams in the short term? How about the long term?

Paul Sporer: It’s Bibee in both for me, but I very much enjoy drafting CLE pitchers in general so I’m certainly not out on Williams despite my preference for Bibee

Jeff zimmermans cousins uncle: Will Nolan Arenado’s OPS be over or under .800 this season?

Paul Sporer: I’ll take the over. I like Arenado for a rebound this year

RK: re: Kiriloff…Justin: “I just find it funny that we burry prospects after a small bad sample…..but then there’s guys like Kiriloff and Brenden Rodgers in this mix that people keep holding out hope that they’re going to be good….at some point we have to come to the conclusion that he’s not good”  no pushback.  He’s been fine when he plays (and has played hurt)

Paul Sporer: With all due respect, take it up with Justin

Paul Sporer: Not trying to be snarky, but that’s definitely more something he needs to answer for than me even though I didn’t immediately pushback. I’m certainly not afraid to engage in a debate with Justin on any of his takes, but sometimes a point like that is glossed over as we move onto another topic, especially if there’s already been some back-n-forth

Wes Helms: Do you adjust any player valuations based on stories about X Player going to Driveline?

Paul Sporer: I do not. It’s like seasoning on top of their outlook as opposed ot a fundamental ingredient that will get me to greatly change how I feel about them

Chris: Strictly for this year, do you think Jackson Holliday or Jordan Walker will have a better hitting season. Standard ESPN scoring.

Paul Sporer: Definitely Walker for me

jintman: Are you worried about Joe Musgrove’s innings this season?

Paul Sporer: Maybe a liiiittle but if he’s all systems go in spring, then I’m penciling him for a full season

Boog Powell: 104 wRC+ for Kiriloff isn’t really worth spiking the football over imo. “Fine” is about as good as you could put his performance thus far *when healthy*

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think that’s fair. And in fairness to RK, maybe they just felt it was jarring to compare Kiri with Brendan Rodgers in terms of guys who haven’t performed bc Rodgers is toting a meager 85 wRC+

Vic: Do you like Gavin Lux or Luis Campusano as a keeper in 12 Team NL Only at $10?

Paul Sporer: I remain a huge Lux fan and will be buying back in this season. Want to point out that I do like Campy, too, but it’s definitely Lux in the comparison of those 2

Paul Sporer: Thank y’all so much for coming out! We’ll get some marathon chats coming in March, but I’m gonna head out and continue working on my SP rankings update as well as my upcoming Sleepers piece. Stay tuned for both of those and have a good rest of your week!