Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – December 6th, 2023

Thank y’all so much for coming out, the transcript is now available!

1:04

Paul Sporer: Hello hello!! It’s chat time and if you want to follow the Rule 5 Draft, you can do that here: https://www.mlb.com/video/live-rule-5-draft-90176?t=mlb-pipeline

1:05

PJ: You (actually Justin) intimated that Jackson Holliday has a real chance to break camp. How high would you take him in a DC and also a ME type team?

1:08

Paul Sporer: Those will vary a good bit bc by the time Mains come around, we’ll have a better idea on Holiday and his price will probably be top 75. For DCs, he’s going just inside the top 200 which isn’t terrible and could pay off nicely.

1:08

Arson Judge: How will Jon Heyman botch Soto’s name in the race to break the inevitable trade news?

1:08

Paul Sporer: Juan Soros going to NYY!

1:08

Richard: When will your updated SP rankings be published?

1:09

Paul Sporer: Promise they’re coming soon. Switched from a one-liner commentary on this first run to a deeper commentary piece so it’s gonna a looong one. I appreciate the patience as I continue to work through ’em

1:09

Bill: What kind of effect will Yankee Stadium have on Soto?

1:09

Paul Sporer: Almost certainly positive given that RF.

1:10

James: How do you value Royce Lewis with his past injury issues?

1:12

Paul Sporer: For some, they take him off their board. Not me, though. I acknowledge them, but I loooove the talent and I’m willing to take the plunge and hope he can spike some health. Top 40 is a lofty price so I won’t be overloaded on him in my fall/winter drafts, but I’ve already got 1 share and I’m doing 8-10 drafts this offseason, I’ll hope to maybe have 2-3 shares of him across Draft Champions and Gladiators. Health is a tough nut to crack and while previous injury is the best indicator of future injury, it doesn’t guarantee he will keep getting hurt. Note: I’m also one of the goofs who drafted Buxton a bunch so maybe I just have a weakness for insanely talented Twins w/bad health profiles

1:12

Gus: Who’s the top pick in a rookie dynasty league? Yamamoto? Crews? Salas?

1:13

Paul Sporer: Yamamoto. Langford, Crews, Skenes next for me. Love Salas and super excited about him, but he’s more for real life than fantasy right now

1:13

Richard: I would be interested in some sort of S&B NFBC league – just wanted to give feedback based upon pod conversation. I’m hoping Fangraphs members can be included in one perhaps.

1:14

Paul Sporer: Yes, definitely! Please also let Justin know so we have a way to reach you as he sets ’em up!

1:14

Tyler: Who you got for 2024, Yamamoto or Ragans?

1:14

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna cop out and say I need to know where Yamamoto is going first, but they will be close regardless

1:14

PJ: Spence and Sauer taken with the first 2 picks of the Rule 5 darft…that Yankee pitching depth is gonna go quick when the Soros deal happens

1:15

Paul Sporer: Right? As an avid OOTP player, the thought of losing 2 Ps in Rule 5 and then trading probably multiples to SD for Soto a day after multiples to BOS for ‘dugo would have me SUPER nervous

1:16

KC Pain: I know everyone is looking at minor stuff like Ohtani and Soto….but the big deal is KC moving Dylan Coleman.   Means we gotta be snagging someone in draft right?!

1:16

Paul Sporer: Can’t believe it’s not getting more coverage!!!!

1:16

Dodgers Blue: Who says no?  Brendan Donovan for Oswald Peraza.  Peraza would be a defensive upgrade over Gorman at 2nd and allow Cards to put Gorma in DH spot.  Donovan gives Yanks another lefty bat, high on base guy…..

1:16

Paul Sporer: That’s an interesting challenge trade. I could actually see both teams agreeing if they had talks about it

1:22

Insert Witty Name Here: How did the results from the rule changes from last year change your strategy for 2024?

1:23

Paul Sporer: We now have a firmer idea of what rules did for SBs so we can adjust accordingly. Some will now wait on SBs under the idea that more are available, buuutttt you need more to compete now so I’m going the other way and shoring up some SBs earlier and trying to avoid having too many guys who are gonna give zero

1:29

Big George: $300 mil for Yamamoto? Some teams (Yankees?) may shy away at that price to preserve $500+ million for Soto free agency in 2024?

1:29

Paul Sporer: Yeah Soto and Ohtani pending price tags could keep some teams away from Yamamoto

1:29

Robin Bunt: Chourio first MLB at bat o/u June 1, 2024? Brewers paying major league salary, might as well push him. Right?

1:31

Paul Sporer: I mean I don’t think they push him if he’s not ready, but he’ll be up as soon as they deem him ready which I think will beat that June 1st deadline, so gimme the under. Could feasibly break camp, too, if he pops off in Spring

1:31

Too Many Mooks: Now that Kimbrel is the Orioles closer, I can trade him for Trout, right?

1:31

Paul Sporer: 100%! lol

1:31

Kate: Jazz confirmed staying in the outfield.  Better or worse chance he gets hurt there vs. infield?

1:32

Paul Sporer: I wanna ask Jeff Zimmerman that bc he probably has data on it. I think CF v. 2B/SS is probably similar, though maybe a little higher in CF bc of the wall?

1:32

PJ: Here are all the Rule 5 picks to make your life easier Paul!
Oakland A’s: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays).
White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
Nationals: SS Nasim Nunez (Marlins)
Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandes (Red Sox)
Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers)
Guardians: 3B Deviyson De Los Santos (D’backs)
Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)

1:33

Paul Sporer: TYVM! Spence, Nunez, and De Los Santos have become gods in various OOTP sims I’ve done since last year. That doesn’t really mean anything, but their success in that game is why I recognize them and have some knowledge of them (I usually end up deep-diving players like that to see what their real life prospects are when they explode in my sims)

1:34

Babyfarts: in a dynasty points league would you trade Nico/Woodruff for Trout/Kirk? Woodruff being out the entire year and in a win now mode

1:35

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with that in a win-now situation. Trout obviously carries his own risks, but the upside is still fantastic

1:38

Dodgers Blue: Please rank potential Dodger arms:  Pepiot, Stone, Sheehan, Grove.  What role does each end up filling this year – and are all four potential trade bait for some bigger name?

1:46

Paul Sporer: I can do the rank, but their role is tough to say until the FA & trade dust settles (though obviously Ohtani does not play a role in that this year).

  • Pep (A cut above the others for me. I believe in the command improvements we saw this yr, shouts to my boy Gregg Martin for calling that early in the year)
  • Stone (Can’t quit him off 31 ugly IP, still love a prospect w/a premium change and his 14% SwStr says the 15% K rate will rise)
  • Grove (Also close to Stone, these last 3 are damn near interchangeable based on who gets an SP role & who doesn’t. Strong 18% K-BB and the best control of the 4 over the long haul)
  • Sheehan (Close to Grove & Stone for sure, needs a control improvement like Pepiot saw if we’re going to see him take a major step)
1:47

Richard: LHB park factor for SD: 95
LHB park factor for NYY: 96

I think we’ll see more HRs but a lot fewer hits (94 SD vs 88 NYY). Probably will be close to a wash.

1:47

Paul Sporer: More HRs in exchange for possibly some hits is still a big win

1:48

Paul Sporer: The HR park factor goes from 84 to 123 moving from SD to NYY

1:49

tmh1968: Does M. King get a fantasy boost if he goes to SD? Top 20-25 NL SP?

1:49

Paul Sporer: Probably a little boost, yeah. Definitely not getting him to Top 20-25 in the NL juuust yet. I like him and believe in the SP transition, but I’ll be a bit lower on my ranking w/him

1:50

Pedro: Its counterintuitive, but baseball Savant indicates that Soto has hit 169 HRs in his career and that number would drop to 147 had he played in Yankee Stadium

1:52

Paul Sporer: Yeah but that’s only based on the batted ball distribution he’s had to date. I think you can make a case that he goes to the pull field more in NYY and sees the HR uptick. I just can’t see how he doesn’t get better in NY v. SD. We saw the drop off from WAS to SD and now it should tick back up (assuming everything goes through as we expect given the latest rumoring)

1:52

Kate: How on earth does Gavin Stone run a 15% K rate with a 14% swinging strike rate?  I know it was a small sample, but what the heck?  Does this have something to do with his primary whiff pitch being a change?

1:52

Paul Sporer: It’s almost impressive, right? lol

1:52

Paul Sporer: Maybe early count whiffs and not able to put guys away?

1:52

BoobieMiles: Does WYatt Langford break camp with Texas…odds of this happening, 0-100% ?

1:53

Paul Sporer: I’d say damn near 100% if they can work a deal w/him a la the Chourio deal, otherwise, I think he at least gets 2-3 wks in AAA bc they just don’t HAVE to rush him

1:53

Natitude Adjuster: I saw some hot takes at the end of the season about how the Nats “obviously” screwed up picking Crews, not Skenes.  Feels like bad analysis on SSS.  Just to clarify: You still like Crews more?

1:54

Paul Sporer: I love Skenes, but that’s a brutal take if it’s based on how they both performed post-draft. I still prefer Crews bc when it’s damn-near even, I’m going to lean hitter over pitcher. Huge fan of both, but gimme Crews in a 1v1

1:54

Paul Sporer: BRB — need to let the pups out & refill my water real quick

1:59

John: Hi Paul,  12 team roto league pick one to keep: L. Webb 3rd round, O. Cruz 11th(1st round 2025), Casas late round, J Walker late round?  Thanks

2:03

Paul Sporer: I’d go Casas or Walker. Webb is good but that’s not a bargain in the 3rd and I’m not paying the premium for Cruz (though 11th isn’t egregious as he is a top 100 pick in the Fall drafts at the NFBC). I’m just nervous about the plate skills. I don’t think it’s off base to compare him with Elly de la Cruz and we saw how the swing & miss got Elly at times during his rookie year.

2:04

Tyler: Yusei worth the gamble this year?

2:15

Paul Sporer: He’s going outside the Top 250 so I don’t mind taking the shot if you’re interested. I love that gave up just 5 HR in his last 14 starts, but I’m not sure if it’s a bankable change just yet. That run came with an 8% HR/FB rate and while he did improve his groundball rate during that time, too, I’m reluctant to dive in headfirst on Kikuchi as a new guy. Again, the draft price makes it a worthy gamble if you do believe, just be ready to jump ship if the HRs return in a big way

2:15

kcc26: Skenes throws ____ MLB innings in 2024

2:16

Paul Sporer: 80, I think he’ll be a fun summer call-up

2:16

Preview?: Give me a preview on whereabouts you have Framber in your upcoming rankings?  Just traded for him and I need validation!

2:22

Paul Sporer: Around the Top 15. I love him and he’s as close to bankable as we’ve got on the mound. Obviously anyone can get hurt at a moment’s notice when pitching, but he looks like one of this generation’s workhorses. I’m looking for another 30-start/190-inning season with strong ratios and strong W opportunity in Houston.

2:23

PickEm: Who ya got over the next 3 years – Ragans or Bobby Miller – in a non-W league?

2:23

Paul Sporer: Bobby Miller. I’ve been fully on board the Ragans train and still am, but Miller has top of the scale ace upside to me.

2:23

PGB: Re Crews/Skenes, Nats didn’t have a chance to get Skenes. He went 1.1. Maybe people are saying they screwed up by not taking Langford, which I could see.

2:25

Paul Sporer: Oh yeah, it’d be Crews v. Lang… but I don’t really think they screwed up on it. Any reaction like is entirely based on the summer sample of Langford surging up the minors. Judging much of anything off that is suspect at best

2:25

Natitude Adjuster: Yes!  Sorry–I meant the Nats screwed up by not taking Langford, presumably based on post-draft.

2:27

Paul Sporer: LOL, I wasn’t even processing that Skenes obv went 1.1, was just comparing them. But yeah with Langford, it was a sick run but it doesn’t fundamentally change who he is or who he can be.

2:27

PGB: Re: Chourio being up Opening Day, the Brewers have a strong incentive to try to get him ROY for the extra draft pick, so I think they’ll do it unless he looks lost in spring training

2:28

Paul Sporer: Great callout, I need to commit those rules to memory because they can definitely influence decisions like this, especially w/the deal in hand. I’m eager to see what the contract does to Chourio’s draft price. Justin and I are going to let some drafts get done before looking, but we’ll check it out in a couple weeks

2:28

KC Pain: Is there a team you see in 3 years being like the Orioles and bursting w talent?

2:29

Paul Sporer: Cincy is the easy NL comp

2:29

Dirty Sanchez: What’s your optimism level for Cris Sanchez?  The 20% K-BB% and >55% GB% are really enticing.

2:34

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge fan! He was one of my big 2nd half guys to get and I loved what I saw. 27 years old, 3 pitch guy with great control, plenty of swing & miss, and a great changeup. I could see a breakout for sure!

2:34

KC Pain: I know too early….but man the way the Tigers finished….wouldnt Langford be a better timeline fit than Clark?

2:37

Paul Sporer: Sure, but I’m not too worried about it. You can’t get too short-sighted. I hope the Tigers are one of the two teams Eduardo Rodriguez is considering to go w/the rest of that pitching. OF isn’t the biggest need, they need to start developing some INF talent.

2:37

Guest: Juan Yepez to the Nats on a minor league deal. Anywhere Dom Smith is your only blockade is a good spot, right?

2:38

Paul Sporer: Definitely and I say that as a Dom Smith fan. But I’m a realistic Dom Smith fan. They can at least platoon and then if either really pops off, they might garner more and more PT

2:38

Jamie: Which Jackson is a better keeper?

2:51

Paul Sporer: Sorry y’all, got a phone call I had to take

2:52

Paul Sporer: Anyway back to the Jacksons – Chourio & Holliday

2:57

Paul Sporer: They both look like premium fantasy options on the verge of contributing. I think it comes down to whether you prefer the defensive edge of Holliday at SS over Chourio at OF or Chourio being a more well-rounded fantasy player w/the top flight speed. I think I lean toward Chourio for that speed edge. It’s some bankable fantasy value as they both find their footing in the majors next year (though both could great right away, too)

2:57

KC Pain: Could you imagine if the Astros won the WS how nuts Jon Singletons storyline would have been?  Got millions, kept smoking, flamed out, came back a decade later, won ring, retires.  Like a no talent Kenny Powers.  (for the record not a Houston fan, but did buy into Singleton hype back then….w like every 1B from Houston…I think White was another “stud”)

2:58

Paul Sporer: It was still a pretty cool story even w/out the WS win as a capper. Might get the movie treatment if they win the WS!

2:58

PJ: Deep take: Nasim Nunez is a glove only speed guy who needs to be able to steal 1B to make any impact 🙂

2:59

Paul Sporer: That’s totally fair. He may well be that, I just wasn’t sure if Miami is deep enough to turn that away. Premium up the middle defense still has value. Nick Ahmed has a 10 yr career as a 75 OPS+

2:59

ken boyer: This past year Nolan Arenado had what was probably his worst offensive season.  He ended on the disabled list.  What do you think of his chances to return to 25–30 home runs, 90–100 rbis, and at least a .270 batting average?  Thx

3:02

Paul Sporer: Relatively high as long as he comes back healthy. Plus .266/26/93/71 is a helluva down season. I could see him becoming a boring pick that gets overstated risk attached to him and ends up a relative bargain

3:03

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later this week and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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