Starting Pitcher Chart – April 10th, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.
The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2024 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL v PHI | x | x | x | 123 | 3.35 | 1.04 | 21% | 9th | Living up to the massive hype early on, big test here |
| 2 | Gavin Williams | CLE v CHW | x | x | x | 76 | 4.86 | 1.37 | 14% | 30th | LAA ran up his pitch count w/5 H & 3 BB in just 3 IP; good spot to rebound in his first home start of the year — I’m easily giving him at least 6-7 more starts before making any rash decisions on him. |
| 3 | Bailey Ober | MIN v KCR | x | x | x | 178 | 3.98 | 1.00 | 21% | 13th | Still only went 4 IP in 2nd start rebound after 8 ER in season opener; and yet he’s still an auto-start for me for another few starts before I start worrying |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI at ATL | x | x | x | 66 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 13% | 4th | Brilliant pair of starts to open the season earns him consideration everywhere even in a tough matchup |
| 5 | José Soriano | LAA at TBR | x | x | 113 | 3.42 | 1.20 | 11% | 29th | Tough start v. CLE resulted in 5 ER, but we still got 9 Ks which does help soften the blow of a dud | |
| 6 | Chris Bassitt | TOR at BOS | x | x | 171 | 4.16 | 1.46 | 13% | 6th | Hat tip to Gausman on the gem (8 IP/1 UER/10 Ks); is that lineup being held down 2x in a row? Risky, but I can see the merit in taking the gamble | |
| 7 | Michael Wacha | KCR v MIN | x | x | 166 | 3.35 | 1.19 | 15% | 10th | Classic streamer type, but lining up for a tough 2-step next wk: at NYY/at DET | |
| 8 | Zack Littell | TBR v LAA | x | x | 156 | 3.63 | 1.25 | 17% | 27th | One bad inning tanked him at TEX (5 ER), but he still went 7 IP; even tougher 2-step next wk – BOS/NYY | |
| 9 | Ryan Feltner | COL v MIL | 162 | 4.49 | 1.34 | 12% | 7th | My favorite Rockie SP, but push come to shove I never really end up running him; always rootin’ for him, though! | |||
| 10 | Walker Buehler | BOS v TOR | 75 | 5.38 | 1.55 | 10% | 12th | I don’t know that a good start would even earn him a ton of leeway right now | |||
| 11 | Quinn Priester | MIL at COL | 49 | 4.71 | 1.41 | 9% | 16th | Slightly intrigued by him going to MIL, but obviously not for a Coors start | |||
| 12 | Jonathan Cannon | CHW at CLE | 124 | 4.49 | 1.33 | 10% | 26th | It’s not that CLE is terrifying to face so much as it is Cannon’s upside just not being very high even in solid matchups |
Fix the headline!
tyvm
I know it’s easy to crap on Buehler with his 8 ERA but his ERA estimators (SIERA, xFIP) this year point to high 3s so far. Yes, the Ks are lacking and his SwStr% is not close to where it was when he was elite but also he’s not going to run the deadly combo of 355 BABIP/59% LOB/30% HR/FB all year long.
In 15s, he would be a start for me if I had him there.
Nah, the stuff he’s showing is earning all those bad numbers. I need to see something before starting him here. Even if he does well, I think it’s a bad process to run him given where he’s at rn
BTW, you conveniently ignored FIP in those ERA estimators lol — 6.33 bc he’s been a HR machine w/a hideous 16% K rate. The ONLYYYY positive is the 2% BB
Two things:
With all due respect, I’m of course aware of the differences b/w ERA and xERA… I’m not lookin at the ERA here, I’m talking about how he’s pitching… the actual stuff. It sucks. And as such, I had ZERO interest in running him today. It’s been a good start but I’m not super moved that this is the beginning of a turnaround v. a good start against a cold team (literally cold, it was in the 40s). Having the White Sox in next wk’s 2-step is nice, but I’m still not dying to start him anywhere
Bench any starter at TB (George Steinbrenner Field); 4 HRs today for Littell in 4 IP
Yeah we def gotta be smart at TBR. Whereas it used to be a great spot to start bc of the Trop, it’s now a very cautious spot for only your best SPs
Wouldn’t these daily pitching articles be more valuable if posted before the previous day’s transaction deadline? In a daily league without benches, and waiver claims due by midnight. Nothing like getting insight too late to use.
disagree. theyre plenty useful to me…
“Wouldn’t these daily pitching articles be more valuable to me if posted before the previous day’s transaction deadline?”
Yes
“Wouldn’t these daily pitching articles be more valuable to most people if posted before the previous day’s transaction deadline that exists in my league?”
No