Paul Sporer’s 2022 First Base Rankings with Comments
by Paul Sporer
March 7, 2022
The difference being cited is from my first run of rankings. These are for standard league setups that include 1B, CI, and UT with 20-game eligibility. While I play mostly in 15-team mixers, these wouldn’t change much in 12- or 10-teamers. In the latter formats, I’d elevate injury concerns and small sample guys because the replacement level is much higher. The double- and triple-eligible guys also take a little hit in the shallower formats for that same reason.
2022 1B Rankings with Comments
| RK | FIRST BASE | TM | POS | LAST RK | DIFF. | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 1B | 1 | 0 | Will likely give back some from elite ’21, but remains a 4-category superstar |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | FA | 1B | 2 | 0 | Elite regardless of where he signs; also has 7 SBs per 600 PA since ’16 |
| 3 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | 4 | 1 | Has an MLB-best 106 HR & .286 ISO since joining the league in ’19 |
| 4 | Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 1B | 3 | -1 | Modern Iroman (most G since ’15); don’t bank on the 12 SBs at age-34, though |
| 5 | Matt Olson | OAK | 1B | 6 | 1 | Holding the K% gains (17%) is more important than where he plays |
| 6 | José Abreu | CWS | 1B | 8 | 2 | Even at age-35, it’s hard to poke holes in his premium profile |
| 7 | C.J. Cron | COL | 1B | 5 | -2 | Lost gms dent his chances to set a new career high in HR (30, 2018) |
| 8 | Josh Bell | WAS | 1B | 10 | 2 | Took off after ugly Apr (.464 OPS) w/an .865 OPS & 25 HR in 508 PA |
| 9 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B/OF | 7 | -2 | Not particularly worried by the fence move for him |
| 10 | Jared Walsh | LAA | 1B | 9 | -1 | Ugly .565 OPS vL included a .175 BABIP; could be a shift-ban beneficiary |
| 11 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 1B | 21 | 10 | Should be 100% from ab surgery and the delay only helps that |
| 12 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | 13 | 1 | Concerted pwr focus paid huge dividends, can he maintain at age-38? |
| 13 | Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | 1B | 24 | 11 | There’s more pwr to tap into if he finds lift (55% GB); will SBs remain? |
| 14 | Trey Mancini | BAL | 1B | 18 | 4 | Fantastic comeback season; could be back to 30-HR level in ’22 |
| 15 | Luke Voit | NYY | 1B | 17 | 2 | Oblique & knee ate 94 G; easy 30 HR bat w/health but has 6 IL stints since ’19 |
| 16 | Anthony Rizzo | FA | 1B | 22 | 6 | Great plate skills (career 16% K, 11% BB) should aid smoother aging curve |
| 17 | Jake Cronenworth | SDP | 1B/2B/SS | 12 | -5 | Probably lives in 17-22 HR range, but the AVG & SBs have upside |
| 18 | Ty France | SEA | 1B/2B | 16 | -2 | Another candidate for a big pwr surge if he finds lift (46% GB) |
| 19 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B/2B/3B | 11 | -8 | Played thru inj. (hip, core) & #s sagged; AVG & some pop will return w/health |
| 20 | Jonathan Schoop | DET | 1B/2B | 23 | 3 | Boring, but reliable 20/80/.260 & will singlehandedly win some H2H wks |
| 21 | Rowdy Tellez | MIL | 1B | 26 | 5 | Brosseau will eat some PA vL, but should he? Only 20 pt. OPS split for Tellez |
| 22 | Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 1B/OF | 14 | -8 | Wrist recovery will determine how far he goes in ’22 |
| 23 | Brandon Belt | SFG | 1B | 19 | -4 | Destroyed the ball in 97 G (3x on IL) and has just 1 460+ PA yr since ’17 |
| 24 | Yuli Gurriel | HOU | 1B | 15 | -9 | AVG regressed after .235 BABIP in ’20, but pwr didn’t & suggests 31 HR were a product of ’19 ball |
| 25 | Max Muncy | LAD | 1B/2B | #N/A | #N/A | Still playing things cautiously until whatever we get for Spring Training starts |
| 26 | Jesús Aguilar | MIA | 1B | 25 | -1 | A bit underrated in MIA as a pwr bat w/out the normal AVG drag |
| 27 | Frank Schwindel | CHC | 1B | 20 | -7 | Obviously won’t stay as hot as ’21 finished, but should avoid the LaHair fate |
| 28 | Miguel Sanó | MIN | 1B | 29 | 1 | You know what you’re getting (big pop, low AVG), just not sure how much of it |
| 29 | Bobby Dalbec | BOS | 1B | 37 | 8 | Kind of young Sano w/out injury history, but K-heavy profile yields volatility |
| 30 | Yoshi Tsutsugo | PIT | 1B/OF | 28 | -2 | First bout of full-time PA w/PIT was fruitful (134 wRC+); could go .250/25 |
| 31 | Pavin Smith | ARI | 1B/OF | 27 | -4 | Makes a ton of contact & could reach mid-teens pwr as he develops |
| 32 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | 1B | 32 | 0 | Shouldn’t need much more time in AAA, but how long will it take? |
| 33 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | SFG | 1B/OF | 31 | -2 | Nice breakout as strong side platoon looks legit |
| 34 | Darin Ruf 러프 | SFG | 1B/OF | 36 | 2 | NL DH will add PA, but will still be platooned regularly despite surge vR in ’21 |
| 35 | Wilmer Flores | SFG | 1B/2B/3B | 47 | 12 | Has tightened platoon split & can play everywhere; offers some late AVG |
| 36 | Seth Beer | ARI | DH | 44 | 8 | (UT-only) Shoulder surgery ended ’21, but high contact & pwr are intriguing |
| 37 | Eric Hosmer | SDP | 1B | 38 | 1 | Gave back all the ’20 pwr gains and went back to smashing the ball into the ground |
| 38 | Eric Thames 테임즈 | OAK | 1B | #N/A | #N/A | Olson trade would push him further; lost most of ’21 to Achilles injury |
| 39 | Bobby Bradley | CLE | 1B | 35 | -4 | Could pop 30 HR if CLE commits to him, but the AVG might be south of .200 |
| 40 | Ji-Man Choi | TBR | 1B | #N/A | #N/A | Knee, groin, and hamstring injuries cut season in half; still a plus bat |
| 41 | Yandy Díaz | TBR | 1B/3B | 42 | 1 | Probably time to move on from the “if he just lifts the ball” wishcasting |
| 42 | Carlos Santana | KCR | 1B | 30 | -12 | Low BABIPs have stifled AVG 3 of L4 yrs, but then pwr left in ’21; not a terrible rebound bet |
| 43 | Christian Walker | ARI | 1B | 39 | -4 | .217 ISO in ’19, .155 in 688 PA since; more struggles like ’21 will cost him PT |
| 44 | Lewin Díaz | MIA | 1B | 34 | -10 | Really like the bat, but Aguilar/Cooper/B.Anderson have that 1B/DH logjammed |
| 45 | Keston Hiura | MIL | 1B | 40 | -5 | Retooling swing & setup after disastrous yr (52 wRC+); ADP is in the toilet |
| 46 | Jurickson Profar | SDP | 1B/OF | #N/A | #N/A | Could be a cheap double-double, but definitely best deployed as OF |
| 47 | Juan Yepez | STL | 1B | #N/A | #N/A | 4 corners guy, but all 4 are severely blocked in StL; be ready if something opens |
| 48 | Triston Casas | BOS | 1B | 33 | -15 | Prefer his profile to Dalbec, but he’s just 22 y/o w/9 gms at AAA so they won’t rush |
| 49 | Nick Pratto | KCR | 1B | #N/A | #N/A | Top 50 prospect smacked 36 HR at AA/AAA; could be up early if Santana doesn’t rebound |
| 50 | Matt Thaiss | LAA | 1B | #N/A | #N/A | Could garner sneaky C eligibility giving him some deep lg appeal |
| 51 | Miguel Cabrera | DET | 1B | #N/A | #N/A | Wasn’t terrible at age-38, but there’s no real upside for a surge, either |
| 52 | Evan White | SEA | 1B | #N/A | #N/A | Hip inj. ended season after 30 G & there was no growth w/in that sample |
| 53 | Edwin Ríos | LAD | 1B | #N/A | #N/A | Labrum surgery ended his season after 60 PA & could affect his pop upon return |
| 54 | Brad Miller | FA | 1B/OF | 43 | -11 | Will likely move him up once we know where he will play |
| 55 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KCR | 1B | #N/A | #N/A | Interesting name has some real pop, but the path to PT is really rough right now |
| 56 | Ryan O’Hearn | KCR | 1B/OF | 50 | -6 | 68 wRC+ in 756 PA since 2019 and now age-28 |
| 57 | Jace Peterson | MIL | 1B/2B/OF | #N/A | #N/A | Similar to Profar and also best used at his other positions |
| 58 | Travis Shaw | FA | 1B/3B | 46 | -12 | Those 32 HR from 2018 came a long time ago at this point |
| 59 | Daniel Vogelbach | FA | 1B | 45 | -14 | Looks like all-or-nothing pwr bat, but has career 8% SwStr rate; needs a job |
| 60 | Matt Beaty | LAD | 1B/OF | 48 | -12 | DH could fuel some extra PT, but hard to see long-term path |
Is this the first year that Albert Pujols doesn’t make the list? If so, it was a good 20 year run even if these last couple weren’t so hot.
I’m pretty sure I still slotted him last year so yes this is the first in forever!!!