Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – September 2nd, 2016

Chat starts around 2:45 PM central

2:48
Paul Sporer: Hola! We’ll get started soon!

2:48
Brad: Thanks for chatting on Friday on Labor Day weekend. Much appreciated.

2:48
Paul Sporer: No problem

2:50
Jon: Pick 1 to keep for just next season: JD Martinez ($6), Gary Sanchez ($2), Danny Duffy ($2), Adam Duvall ($2)

2:51
Paul Sporer: Hate to slight Sanchez or Duffy as I’m in on both, but JD at $6 is too juicy to pass up. I think it’s worth the extra bucks

2:51
Milo: CJ Cron: thoughts?

2:51
Paul Sporer: Pronounces his last name stupidly given that there’s no E at the end

2:51
Paul Sporer: Oh you mean his baseball skills?

2:53
Paul Sporer: Really don’t see him ever being more than a CI bc the power output seems like mid-20s peak… which he likely could’ve reached this year without the injury

2:56
Hans: Hold on to deGrom in 10-team, or will the awfulness continue?

2:57
Paul Sporer: Yesterday offered a glimmer of hope compared to the other 2 starts of ugliness. One more start at least.

2:57
Rick: Please rank these 2017 keepers in an 11-team, $260 AL-only keeper league: $6 Sandoval, $8 J. Polanco or $9 Healy. Thanks!

2:58
Paul Sporer: Healy, Pablo, Polanco. I’m in the crowd – the small crowd it seems – that believes Sandoval will be back and have another solid season or three, even if it’s elsewhere.

2:58
Morky: Pick up Puig in 10-team or leave him be?

2:59
Paul Sporer: Depends who you’re cutting. I’m OK w/it. We just discussed him on today’s pod that’ll be up in a bit and Eno was passing which I understood, so it really depends on the name you’re taking Puig over

2:59
JoeB: Given the small number of decent hitting catchers, do you consider Willson Contarares a keeper @$10. League inflation is typically 20to25%.

3:00
Paul Sporer: it’s not bad, espec. at that inflation. Worst case is he’d go $10-11 anyway and you cut out the middle man and just secure him now

3:00
Linus: Will you answer fantasy football questions, too?

3:00
Paul Sporer: What do you think? 🙂

3:00
Tyrion: Will Giolito start next season in the Nats rotation?

3:02
Paul Sporer: I *think* so, but we discussed the idea of a potential trade this offseason, but that’s a low- percentage notion

3:02
Nick: Can keep 2 in a standard 5×5 league: Kinsler, Josh Bell, Brendan Rodgers, Garrett Richards . Curious what your opinion is

3:02
Paul Sporer: Standard league? So not dynasty? I can’t really see keeping Rodgers who seems to be ’18 at earliest. I’d go Kins/Bell.

3:02
Marcus: We seem to be off to a choppy start – Charlotte full-fanging your ankles?

3:03
Paul Sporer: Haha, whattya mean? She’s actually passed out, but today has been hectic already

3:03
Happy Go Gilmore: I have Zimmer and Gallo in my AL-only league, in hopes that one could somehow be starting on opening day next season. Is there even a small percentage chance of that happening?

3:03
Paul Sporer: Yes, particularly Gallo, though perhaps on another team

3:05
Sam: Thoughts on AJ Reed next season? Does he start opening day?

3:07
Paul Sporer: Ya I can still see it. I don’t think Houston is the kind of team that would overreact to 122 PA, even 122 bad ones as he’s had

3:07
Tom: Talk to me about Jharel Cotton. Is he someone that I should be running out to add in a keeper league?

3:12
Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say that. AL only, sure. Deep mixer, take a flier. Regular to shallow mixer, wait and see. Deep arsenal, jump in velo. Could see some Sept. value. Could end up as RP going forward, though

3:12
all about eno: What beer has eno recommended that you’ve also liked?

3:12
Paul Sporer: I don’t drink anymore

3:12
Daniel: Isn’t DJ LeMahieu the greatest? Top 5 2B, right?

3:13
Paul Sporer: He’s been awesome. I can’t go top 5, but top 10 for sure. Only 19 HR+SB means he HAS to keep the AVG super high to be top 5.

3:13
The other Kyle: Costs me $6 in real money to make a move at this point. In my NL only league, I have Maurer at .60 for next year ($26 cap). Capps is available on waivers and could be kept at .10 next year. I have to grab him, right?

3:16
Paul Sporer: Ya, you’re not cutting Maurer, right? You’re saying you’d lock up SD saves (or theoretically at least). Ya I’m in. Love Capps, really hope he comes back strong

3:16
The other Kyle: Locked into 2nd place. Have a couple roster spots available in my NL only league. Guys picked up from waivers can be kept at $1 (or $10 in $260 cap league). Is it worth grabbing Brinson or Albies for next year at that price? If both are Day 1 starters I’d have to think they go for more in the auction.

3:16
Paul Sporer: Brinson for me

3:16
Toki: What do you expect out of Adam Jones next season? More injuries and a steep decline?

3:18
Paul Sporer: I don’t see a STEEP decline. I think we stop looking at him as a big volume guy and tab him more as the 30-100 guy over 140ish games… so 25-85… and work down from there if you think he’s closer to 130 games or whatever. But the skills shouldn’t just go away

3:18
Gentry: Where do you rank Wil Myers amongst 1B next season? Top 5?

3:19
Paul Sporer: I have a hard time doing that bc it requires a repeat in the SBs and he certainly hasn’t shown any reason to believe he’s definitely a 20-something SBer each year. I’ll still be investing as heavily as I did this year, but I’m planning for more of a top 10 1B and ideally I get him at CI after a stud 1B earlier on

3:19
Moltar: Does Wade Davis step right back in to the closer role? Herrera has been soooo good for me lately, I’d hate having to drop him for a lesser skilled reliever, but saves are saves.

3:21
Paul Sporer: Moltar, one second… update first

3:21
Paul Sporer: To the deGrom asker earlier, I’m a little more worried now: https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/771800973857652737

3:22
Paul Sporer: Re: Davis, I think he’ll be eased in as opposed to just given back the ninth. Herrera as you mention as been so elite and they’re right back in this. I realize healthy Davis is elite, too, but they can’t really risk it and give him some key ninths without knowing he’s fully back. Hang onto Herrera

3:22
Nick: Sorry, should have clarified that. It’s keeping 15 out of 20 so close to dynasty, and Rodgers could be a prospect slot and open a roster spot post-draft

3:22
Paul Sporer: Ah ok, then go ahead & keep him w/kins

3:23
gern cranium: Dynasty league no salaries, keep forever. In the playoffs, 14 team H2H 5×5 cats but need to open a roster spot to activate a player off the DL. Thornburg, Ottavino, Wade Davis or Lackey needs to go….thoughts?

3:25
Paul Sporer: Ooh that is tough. Thorn and Ottavino have been so good. I know SVs impact is usually muted in H2H so I’m actually gonna say Davis here

3:25
Paul Sporer: I still worry Davis is on the path to TJ

3:25
AL Pitching Coach: Are Kluber and Verlander top-5 arms in the American League next year?

3:25
Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d say so

3:25
John: Sitting on Leon Broxton as my bottom of the roster guy to get steals in a week where I’m tight in that category. Only have two more adds available for the year and firmly in the playoffs. Worth it to drop Broxton and add Buxton for a speed option with more upside? Or hold onto my adds to stream pitchers in a tight playoff matchup? Thanks and happy holiday!

3:26
Paul Sporer: Sure, I can get behind it. The Ks have caught back up to Broxton (.621 OPS last 2 weeks, .297 last week w/44% and 64% K rates)

3:27
Dee Gordon: Droppable in redraft 12 team OBP?

3:28
Paul Sporer: Ya, busted season for sure and even him getting back on track for this month wouldn’t help as much in OBP

3:28
HappyFunBall: Keep Trevor Story as a Round ?? player in a 12xMixed next year?

3:28
Paul Sporer: Anything after 5? I know he’s got K issues and they aren’t likely to go away QUICKLY, but Coors covers so much and that pop is legit

3:28
Toki: Should I feel bad that I ruined Markakis’ name for Eno? I mean I always heard the name pronounced Mark”in”kas not Mar”cake”is. So I was spelling it Markinkas and apparently that ruined his name for Eno.

3:29
Paul Sporer: LOL I’m so confused.

3:29
Beast: Wily Adames, Isan Diaz, both, or neither as $2 keepers going into next year in Ottoneu 4×4?

3:30
Paul Sporer: Just Adames for me, but I don’t play Ottoneu so I don’t feel as STRONG when spec’ing on minor lgers for that format

3:30
Joseph : About to have Kershaw come off the DL — which SP do I cut to make room: Gausman, Eickhoff, E. Rodriguez or Wainwright? Still have Darvish, C. Martinez & Archer.

3:30
Paul Sporer: Rodriguez

3:30
Paul Sporer: Inconsistency and injury issues

3:31
Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, we gotta do a tight hour today. I’ve gotta get the pod edited, my piece posted, and another project for another outlet. So we have about 15 more minutes

3:31
Minty: Moncada was striking out a ton in AA, but has a ton of speed and power. What’re you realistically expecting from him this/next year? Trying to decide if I hoard or deal him in my 10 team 30 man roster OBP dynasty. Already have Arenado/Bryant/Correa.

3:33
Paul Sporer: Great pt re: the Ks (31% for those unaware) and he’s skipping a level. I think the smart money is on him not going all Seager/Bryant on the league. Let’s be honest, that’s ALWAYS the smart money. I think he’ll be a solid fantasy asset bc of the power-speed-lineup as long as he’s given the playing time, but I’d sell now at a value peak.

3:33
Dave: You keeping Josh Bell for $1 in a 12 team OBP?

3:39
Paul Sporer: Sorry, that didn’t stump me, I got a call. We’ll go til 3:55 to make up for it. I’m torn on that, but I’ll lean yes as a CI

3:39
Beast: Kennedy, Musgrove, Hellickson worth keeping at $3 after inflation in Ottoneu 4×4?

3:39
Paul Sporer: Ehhhhh, I don’t love any of that

3:39
Johnny: Dahl just got dropped in my 10 team league. Is he a 10 team starting OF ROS?

3:39
Paul Sporer: Ya, I’d think so

3:39
Justin Upton: Hi Paul, I’m feeling the groove now after taking a long nap for the first 4 months of the season. What’s my outlook for 2017?

3:42
Paul Sporer: It’s really two and a half bad months. June was in the error bar of projections, July was good, and 2nd half of August was fantastic. I think he’ll be low to mid .800s OPS next year

3:42
Rusty Baker: Down by .5 points in 12tm roto dynasty. Have 102 SBs. Top 2 have 105. Could make up 2 points in SBs. Would you trade Castellanos and B. Zimmer for B. Hamilton?

3:43
Paul Sporer: Yes, flags fly forever! I’m in

3:43
Robb: Thoughts on Blake Snell next season?

3:44
Paul Sporer: I think we’ll see a trim down in the walks and could get a similar ERA with a markedly better WHIP. There’ll be bumps still, but plenty of good runs, too. Big on his future.

3:44
Theon: AJ Pollock top 10 OF next season?

3:46
Paul Sporer: Little lofty for me. Top 20 is still v good, though, and top 10 remains an upside

3:46
Ombudsman: Would you start Robbie Ray tonight at Colorado?

3:46
Paul Sporer: No, of course not

3:46
Miguel Sano: Am I droppable in redraft roto OPSs where I am perpetually on the bench right now as I suck or is there still hope for the remainder of the season?

3:49
Paul Sporer: Depends on how many teams. Power still strong, but ya, OPS is meh. Ks are tough to overcome which was my big concern about him coming into the year and why I tabbed him as a peak Jack Cust for this year

3:49
Brew Crew: Perez and Schimpf. What do you think of them next season?

3:49
Paul Sporer: Perez, Perez, Perez…. which Perez

3:49
Paul Sporer: OOH HERNAN

3:50
Paul Sporer: I buy Schimpf’s power and it’s nice out of 2B, though the AVG is likely to remain weak

3:50
Paul Sporer: I’m really uncertainly on Hernan. Saw a bit of him w/the Tigers and thought utility IF, but wow he’s been fantasy-excellent this year

3:51
Paul Sporer: I can’t comfortably project that kind of power again for Hernan, but double-digit pop over a full year with 25+ SBs is very useful

3:51
N.W.enO: Puig or Dahl for my util?

3:51
Paul Sporer: Dahl

3:51
Sean: Down to Bregman, Benintendi, Belt for my final 2 keeper slots – extra cats BB, K, OBP, SLG, XBH. Who gets thrown back? No position concerns.

3:53
Paul Sporer: That’s really tough. I’m usually more conservative w/young players, but these are two of the VERY best in baseball and both have shown some stuff in their short samples (and Bregman perhaps more impressive by coming up after that horrendous start). I think with Belt being at one of the deepest positions, I actually move on from him

3:53
N.W.enO: You rolling out Bundy vs. the Yanks tonight?

3:54
Paul Sporer: League type would really clarify, but I’m leaning no in most

3:54
Phantom of the Chakras: Hi Paul. Thanks for the chat. You have Danny Duffy high on the end-of-year list, but others at FG are worried about the velo drop. Do you think he sustains the success? Thanks!

3:56
Paul Sporer: It spiked back up to 95 in that thrashing at BOS. I’m not too concerned in a long term situation and this was his first bad start since like late-May.

3:56
Jake Lamb: 2017 more like 1st half or 2nd half. I still hit the ball really hard, right?

4:00
Paul Sporer: It’s been one bad month – August. I’m still in on Rake Lamb. We knew he’d have some fall off after being SO good for four months

4:00
Paul Sporer: OK y’all. thanks so much for hanging out and adjusting to the new time today. I’ll be back next week and I’m aiming to clear the calendar for one of our marathon ones. Feel free to bring some 2017 questions, too.

4:00
Paul Sporer: Have a great holiday weekend!

We hoped you liked reading Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – September 2nd, 2016 by Paul Sporer!

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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