Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 5/5/2016 by Paul Sporer May 5, 2016 Thanks for coming out! Back at it next week. 1:44 Paul Sporer: 1:44 Paul Sporer: Let’s roll!! 1:47 einstein2u: thoughts on jesse hahn? was that gun running hot? 1:48 Paul Sporer: Readings seem to check out. I’d like to see more Ks, but talent is there 1:48 bob: Thoughts on Hearn 1b royals? 1:48 Paul Sporer: Who’s that? 1:48 CameronDaClub: Thoughts on Views? The tropical shit (With You, Controlla, One Dance) goes, but rest felt a bit pedestrian imo. 1:49 Paul Sporer: Those are some of my favorite songs. It’s not his best at all. Honestly, makes me appreciate Take Care and Thank Me Later more. I’m enjoying the album more as I keep listening, but it’s not a classic 1:49 Frank: Domingo Santana or L. Martin rest of the way? and why? 1:49 Paul Sporer: Santana… bc you made me choose 1:50 Paul Sporer: just kidding. honestly, it’s a personal preference toss-up w/them. this power surge from Leonys is very interesting, but I’ll take Santana by a nose 1:50 Josh: Grichuk or Ozuna ROS? 1:50 Paul Sporer: Ozuna, but they’re v close so he’s just my preference 1:50 Joba: Trade my Harvey/Carrasco, Betances, Castellanos for Bumgarner, Osuna, A. Miller in 12 team roto dynasty? Have Robertson, Pap, Tolleson, and Perkins. Or Harvey for Stras in dif deal 1:51 Paul Sporer: I assume that’s Harvey or Carrasco? Are you trying to contend this year first and foremost? Bc I don’t love getting 2 closers in a dynasty if you’re long-term planning. I’d pass 1:51 F: Matt Harvey, what when how why and what do we do with him going forward? 1:52 Paul Sporer: He’s coming along. I buy the whole thing about his mechanics just being off. We throw around stuff like “Player X at 85% if better than ____” well, this is Harvey at 85-90% and he’s still solid, but obviously not the ace we paid for. patience. 1:52 Larry David: I have Sal Perez and Beef Castillo in a 1C 14-team points league. I GOTTA sell Beef high here, right? He is crushing baseballs. Problem is no one takes him all that seriously. My best offer is Martin Perez for him. 1:52 Paul Sporer: Then keep him. He did it last year. Maybe you’re the only believer, but you’ll benefit 1:52 Ryan: would you drop Leake or Severino for Ervin Santana? 15-TM league 1:53 Paul Sporer: Ya, Leake first 1:53 Gus: please rank ROS: Pineda, Corbin, Nola, Berrios, Conley 1:54 Paul Sporer: Nola, Pineda, Corbin, Conley, Berrios 1:54 Eli: What are we looking at for Taijuan Walker ROS? Is he is a breakout top 25 type SP or have we seen his best so far this season? 1:54 Paul Sporer: I really think we’re seeing the makings of a big breakout. I’ve been a big Walker fan from jump street. Buy! 1:55 concave77: Dee Gordon in a 10-team roto with only 4 bench spots. Should I drop? Keeper league, but it would cost a 2nd rounder. 1:55 Paul Sporer: Drop when you have to. Just hang on until you need the spot, but then you can drop. Although if you make it through 55-60 of the games before needing the spot, then I’d be less-inclined to cut him 1:55 Eric: 5×5 ottoneu league, I’m competing this year. Trade $21 Harvey for $15 Lester? 1:55 Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I don’t think I would. Since I don’t think Harvey is hurt, I’m staying the course 1:56 Paul Sporer: Same tier, though, so if you really wanna – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2016-nl-starting-pitcher-tiers-may-edition/ 1:56 Mucho Maas: Where do you think Nola ranks ROS? Viable #2 after MadBum? (have Felix, but..) 1:56 Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2016-nl-starting-pitcher-tiers-may-edition/ — even though i did this last week, he’d probably move again to the Nothing Was the Same tier 1:56 Frank: is chris archer a buy/sell/hold? rate these 3: archer/harvey/keuchel 1:58 Paul Sporer: Archer is a hold for me. Harvey, Archer, Keuchel 1:58 Chris: My pitching staff in a 12 team H2H points dynasty leagie is: MadBum, Thor, Harvey, deGrom, Richards, T. Walker, R. Iglesias, J. Garcia. Should I be trying to shop one of them to land an upgrade at 2B? I currently have Wong and Lawrie. I have been offered Rendon, Tanaka and Albies for Harvey and Lawrie. 1:59 Paul Sporer: I’m OK searching for an upgrade at 2B, but I’m tepid on that deal. I’m a Rendon fan, but Lawrie showing some skills growth behind his performance and I’ve always liked him 2:00 Eldridge Cleaver: Do you like Stanton more than Betts in a keeper league, and if so, by how much? I am in a keeper league where you keep your top 3 without any budget or draft slot implications. I am currently keeping Goldschmidt, Rizzo, and Betts. I have the opportunity to swap Betts for Stanton but would have to pay some kind of premium. 2:01 Paul Sporer: I guess the premium matters. I’m a HUGE Betts backer, but Stanton is still better. Both likely 2017 first-rounders, though 2:01 Mike: What are your rest of season projections for Steven Wright? 2:01 Paul Sporer: I don’t do projections. The knuckler is really tough to pin down, but he’s actually always been pretty solid. I can see a mid-3.00s ROW 2:01 Mark: Thoughts on Luis Severino? How patient should one be in a dynasty league. Is the struggle real? Or due to his high BABIP can we expect sunny skies ahead this season? 2:02 Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/tipping-pitches-cutting-bait-on-three-top-60-arms/ 2:02 Wil Myers: You’ve mentioned in the past week or so that you’re high on me. What (if anything) in my numbers makes you optimistic that I can sustain my early success? 2:03 Paul Sporer: Hell, I’ve been saying that since winter! I’d like to see your previous BB totals, but I honestly see the Ks coming down a bit and BBs going up a bit the rest of the way. Myers is a really good hitter, health has been the question, not skills 2:03 Hannah Hochevar: Hey Paul. I hope you’re rocking Curtis’s pale yellow combo today. Also hope you’ll weigh in on an AL deal: Felix, Trumbo, and T. White (only keepable name) for Machado and Brantley. Thanks! 2:03 Paul Sporer: Gimme side B so hard 2:04 Paul Sporer: 2:04 Josh: Thoughts on Eickhoff? Is he a must own in 12 team mixed leagues? 2:05 Paul Sporer: Yeah, I think so. The strikeouts have been nice throughout his short MLB career 2:05 Gina: Will Melvin Upton remain relevant 2:06 Paul Sporer: He’s gotta keep running to offset that AVG awfulness 2:06 Shaawingggg: Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute….there’s a guy pitching today named J. Eikhoff????? Daaaaaaa! 2:06 Paul Sporer: lol where ya been?! 2:06 rpo: Need pitching- looking to flip V Mart for a starter. What tier of SP is a realistic target? 2:07 Paul Sporer: Kinda impossible to answer. It really depends what your market will pay. It’s different in every league and by every manager. I don’t think you can get a top tier guy, but maybe like a Jake Odorizzi level guy? 2:07 Shawn: Thoughts on Jose Berrios so far? Heard he was getting squeezed last outing, and that curve looks electric 2:08 Paul Sporer: Filthy stuff, but needs to work on commanding it. Standard rookie issues. I’m still buying because if it clicks, he can take off and be a 4+ month contributor 2:08 Existential Fan: 12-team mixed. four OF. regular categories with walks added. 8 keep forever. Who is the odd man out of Inciarte, Soler or Span? I have both Revere and Inciarte coming off the DL and don’t want to put either Soler or 20+ steals on the wire for nothing. 2:09 Paul Sporer: It’s tough, but that just happens in 10-12 teamers sometimes. Honestly, I think it’s Inciarte. If you can’t make a move, he’s the cut. Soler name value & team would likely get him picked up off the wire and then Span/Inciarte aren’t too different skills-wise, but Span on the MUUUUUCH better team 2:10 Hannah Hochevar: Watched Hector Santiago via Gameday, and they said he threw no fastballs at all, just a sinker at 90 and a change. Is that cause his FB was so slow it didn’t qualify or just some mlb nonsense? Getting worried. 2:10 Paul Sporer: Easily his lowest all year – http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=502327&b_hand=-1&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017 Did he look hurt or anything? I’d reluctant to react too much to one start unless you saw something that worries you re: injury 2:10 Fat Guys Unite: Bart Colon a HOFer? 2:10 Paul Sporer: Nah. 2:11 Joe Thomas: when are you going to get out to the Bay Area? 2:11 Paul Sporer: When I can afford it! 2:11 Neil: Any concern about Richards with the ‘fatigue?’ 2:12 Paul Sporer: Whattya mean? He’s made it into the sixth in 4 of 6 starts and he’s strong third-time-through http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=richaga01&year=&t=p#times::none 2:12 Shawn: Realize they may all have BA issues but ROS – C. Carter, Ozuna, K. Davis, or Park? 2:12 Paul Sporer: yeah they’re all kinda similar, so it’s another one of those that boils down to some personal preference 2:13 Paul Sporer: we discussed Carter & Davis recently on the podcast… actually yesterday 2:13 Paul Sporer: Khris Davis or Park probably my favorites outta that crew 2:13 Thompson: Drop Corbin for Graveman? 2:14 Paul Sporer: Dang, I probably wouldn’t personally because I was bought in on Corb coming into the season, but I get it. He’s being beaten around the yard. Personally I’m waiting another start or two, but if you wanna do that, it’s passable 2:14 Minty: Conforto or Mazara in OBP dynasty? 2:14 Paul Sporer: Conforto, but really like both 2:14 RAP: Thoughts on Dozier ROS? Bad 2nd half last year combined with slow start this year has me concerned 2:15 Paul Sporer: Still has 4 HR, 2 SB, though. ZIPS still gives him 20-11 rest of way with .241 AVG. I can see that 2:15 CameronDaClub: 12-team H2H; OBP, QS, K/9 My team is killing it in pretty much every pitching category, largely due to a staff of Sale, Thor, Harvey, Stroman, Wacha, Richards, and Hendricks, with Giolito at the ready (7SP/3RP league). So, question: what’s a reasonable get for Sale in your opinion? I tried straight-up for Crush but got denied. Braun owner has interest, maybe try that one-for-one? 2:16 Paul Sporer: You can shoot for the highest level. Obv that guy said no, but that’s why these questions are so hard bc someone else could have Crush and say yes. But obv Sale is a total ace so you should be getting a super-premium bat 2:17 Paul Sporer: Stop repeating questions, y’all 2:17 Paul Sporer: You gotta be patient. But if I see it 3-4 times, I’m going to ignore it altogether 2:17 Shawn: Shallow re-draft – Rodon or R. Hill? 2:18 Paul Sporer: I jumped off the Hill train too early because the Spring Training looked so much like his previous work that kept him out of the majors, but he’s settled nicely. I’m still going Rodon, but it’s closer 2:18 Ken M: Story, Kang, Walker, Dan Murph. Rank em, statboy 2:18 Paul Sporer: lol 2:18 Paul Sporer: that’s a little demand-y 2:18 Alex: Dropped Wisler and Buchholz for Bauer and Blair in 15-team NFBC last weekend. Mistake? 2:19 Paul Sporer: I’m not a Buchholz or Bauer guy and I like Wisler. Not any kind of catastrophic mistake, but I probably wouldn’t have done it, even as a Buchholz hater 2:19 Eno: Are we back in on MadBum? 2:20 Paul Sporer: Looking strong and I haven’t heard anything about the foot so I’m def more comfortable w/him than I was earlier 2:20 Gest: Which option looks the worst THIS WEEK: Gio Gonzalez vs Cubs, Moore vs LAA, or S. Wright vs NYY? 2:21 Paul Sporer: Gio, even with the toughest matchup 2:21 spacelasagna: Have W. Castillo. Dump R. Martin for depth at another position? (Ozuna/Hahn available for example) 2:21 Paul Sporer: yeah, sounds like 1 catcher lg so I’d do that 2:21 Proegler: 14 team mixer. Drob Shelby Miller for Jameson Taillon? 2:22 Paul Sporer: I feel like there is probably someone a little better on the wire, but if not, I can actually get behind this. This iteration of Miller is not the guy I saw the last three years and hyped this winter/spring. His mechanics are a total mess. 2:22 FC Baseball Talk: Is bourbon at noon a good thing? 2:22 Paul Sporer: Sure 2:22 Ken M: Ozuna or Reddick ROS standard 5×5 2:23 Paul Sporer: Reddick 2:23 Eric: Do you think Casilla holds down the closer role all year? Have an offer on the table to grab him for Giles 2:23 Paul Sporer: At this rate, def. Skills are tremendous. I overlooked him AGAIN bc of my Strickland love affair, lol 2:24 PS: Drop one in a redraft: Finnegan, Berrios, Glasnow, Nicasio 2:24 Paul Sporer: Glasnow 2:24 Nick Castellanos: How close can I come to keeping this up for the ROS? 2:24 Paul Sporer: Hey man, Eno & I tried to tell y’all bout Casty on our pod…casty. 2:25 Paul Sporer: I see more of .270-280 rest of way w/~15 HRs 2:25 Alex: Who do you expect to have better ERA & WHIP going forward? Shields or VV? 2:25 Paul Sporer: Velasquez, but in fewer IP 2:25 Mike: Someone in my league dropped C Seager, R Iglesias and Carlos Gomez. I scooped them up, dropping Semien, Kang and Jepsen. I done good? You think they can all bounce back? 2:26 Paul Sporer: Wow, Seager??? Not sure how many teams, but I think it was worth getting them in most cases. Raisel is the one of the three I might’ve left out there, but if you don’t need Jepsen’s saves, you’re good 2:26 David: Glasnow or Taillon which comes up first and who is better this year? 2:27 Paul Sporer: No idea. I have no idea when anyone will come up. Honestly, the prospect guys barely have a clue. It’s just impossible to know and even fostering a guess has little value bc it can change on a dime. I prefer Taillon between ’em for this year 2:27 Oliver: with kang coming back soon need to drop one. 5×5 OBP league (10 keepers no $) Jake Lamb, HanRam, Shaw, Manaea 2:27 Paul Sporer: Not sure how many teams, but prob Manaea. 2:28 Joe Thomas: nice article on Tillman, how much longer can I ride Bartolo Colon? 2:28 Paul Sporer: Colon is good for a shellacking or three every year. 2:28 Paul Sporer: Though they’re usually telegraphed – like at Coors or v. Toronto, so just keep monitoring the matchups 2:28 Brad: thoughts on brandon drury? thanks. 2:28 Paul Sporer: Dope catch yesterday! 2:29 Paul Sporer: Decent power source if he maintains playing time 2:29 Mucho Maas: Would you offer Felix for Tai straight up? 2:29 Paul Sporer: I’d try to get a little sweetner 2:30 Paul Sporer: Still think Felix has enough juice in the market to get a little more 2:31 Sean Manaea: Do you still like me or am I just a 2 pitch guy who can’t go 3x through the lineup? Drop me for Hahn in a k/9 league? 2:32 Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Manaea fan. The 2-pitch thing is fair, but I’m giving him more than 2 starts. Hahn seems to have shifted to a GB guy instead of Ks. I’d hold Manaea a little longer 2:32 John Lackey’s Teeth: Danny Valencia off the DL tomorrow. He was still crushing pitches and hitting righties. Would you take a flier in a 12 team? 2:33 Paul Sporer: I don’t buy his surge v. righties. Don’t usually see 30-year old breakthroughs like that outta nowhere so I’d pass 2:33 Hendu: Better catcher stash in a 2 C roto league – Mesoraco or d’Arnaud? These are desparate times. 2:33 Paul Sporer: TdA 2:33 Phil: Would you add Baez now where I have Russell, Lawrie, Semien, and Travis as MIs (no DL spot)? 2:34 Paul Sporer: If you prefer him over Travis, sure. I’d hold the other 3 2:34 Chet: Trade Boxberger for Pineda? 2:34 Paul Sporer: No league context makes it tough to fully assess, but sure 2:34 Harvey’s Gang: Do you think Colome has a chance to keep the job even after BoxyB returns? 2:34 Paul Sporer: Yes. They let Boxy keep it ahead of McGee and Colome’s skills have been tremendous 2:34 Paul: Keuchel plus Madson should equal what type of SP? My pitching is awful. 2:35 Paul Sporer: Still a pretty good one provided you find someone who buys Keuchel. 2:35 John Olerud: Billy Hamilton, Billy Burns, Ben Revere and Denard Span? How do you rank them? Anything changed based on early-season returns? I know Span is always ranked way lower by most (due to way lower SB upside), but he seems to have a much bigger RBI- and Run-producing upside than the others, especially with the Giants’ offense as it’s constructed. Finally, what do you think of Hamilton’s apparent ability to hit more GBs so far this season? I have Hamilton and Revere as my speed options, but I’m torn between dropping my Billy for the the other (Burns). 2:36 Paul Sporer: Revere, Burns, and Span are all airtight close for me. I think a lot of ppl thought GBs would be this magic elixir for B Ham and they just havne’t been. He’s a terrible hitter. If you just want the most SBs and can cover his AWFULNESS everywhere else, then go ahead and take BHam, but I’d honestly prefer all of the other 3 2:37 Gest: Wait are you a little low on Berrios? What do you see? 2:37 Paul Sporer: No, not low on him. Still think he can be an impact SP, but he needs to tighten up the command of his filthy stuff for sure 2:38 Dave Kerwin: I assume you’ve watched Verlander pitch this year. Crazy (or about time) to drop him for a streamer-caliber SP, or buy-low on Ken Giles? 12-team mixed league, other SP are Cueto/Gio Gonzalez/Wei-Yin Chen/Conley/Finnegan. Other RP are C. Allen/Papelbon/F. Rodney/D. O’day/K. Herrera… 2:38 Paul Sporer: Wouldn’t move him for Giles, but I’m OK if you wanna move him for something. It’s been 2 bad starts, but they’ve been really bad so it stings 2:39 Paul Sporer: but i just haven’t seen anything to suggest he’s toast. Still has talent to be a strong 3, fringe 2. Started slowly last year before reeling off a great 14-start run 2:39 Anonymous: Am I still mashing the eject button on Liriano or does his mutant K-rate justify his existence? 2:42 Paul Sporer: First time having him? This is just kind of the deal. Gotta set it and forget it, espec. in roto lgs 2:42 Eric: Re: Harvey for Lester, if I can get a Street rental as well, does that tip the scale enough? 2:42 Paul Sporer: Can you can get someone not hurt? It’s probably enough since I did have them same tier, but I just prefer Harvey 2:44 Joel: Just moved a 7th round Kluber a 15th round C Seager and Trumbo for Trout Odor Graveman(who I’ll drop) league has 1 day to veto. Fair enough deal? 2:44 Paul Sporer: ya, I can’t see how that’d get vetoed at all 2:44 Minty: I want to keep Rodon in my 10 team dynasty, but is it stupid of me to drop him instead and use it as a streamer spot? 2:45 Paul Sporer: I’m still holding. He allowed 31% of his season earned runs in 1% of his innings in that 0.3 IP/5 ER massacre. 2:45 Henry Blinkler: Giolito or Glasnow for this year? For the next three? 2:45 Paul Sporer: Gio 2:45 Troy Tulowitzki: How many HRs will I hit 2:46 Paul Sporer: 27 if he plays all year 2:46 Ruffles: AL Stars and scrubs team… How would you rank Pearce, Byrd, Dae Ho, Tucker and Jose Ramirez on offense alone? 2:47 Paul Sporer: Pearce, Lee, Byrd, Tucker, Ramirez 2:47 I am crazy: Paul, I picked up K Hendricks in search of some W (my worst pitching stat). Is this not worth the performance between him and Rich Hill or Jaime Garcia (both currently on wire in 10-tm) 2:48 Paul Sporer: I’d prefer Garcia. Better skills IMO and on a good tm, too. Obv Garcia a perennial injury risk, but should be owned everywhere while healthy for sure 2:50 David: JD Martinez ROS? 2:50 Paul Sporer: Stud 2:50 sergent1546: X man or Tulo 2:50 Paul Sporer: Bogy 2:50 Gavin: Do I sell VINNY VELASQUEZ!!!! (I love him) for a non-innings limited starter in my 12 team H2H? Or do I just relax and enjoy the riiiiiiiide? 2:51 Paul Sporer: i’d still enjoy the ride, but he will be capped on IP so you might wanna start looking to move him around Memorial Day. Sell him with a chance for someone to still get a couple months of time or else returns will be scnat 2:51 Paul Sporer: scant* 2:51 Paul: Where are you on Aldemys Diaz ROS? He’s currently my starting 2b in a 12 team H2H (standard 5 + OPS), but have a very deep staff and can make a move to upgrade. 2:51 Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-340-aledmys-to-introduce-myself/ 2:52 SK1: What should I do with Verlander in a 12team mixed H2H? Hold on to him and let him ruin every other week? 2:52 Paul Sporer: lol. I’m holding. Can you not bench him if you’re worried about getting ruined? only 2 bad starts rn 2:52 James: Any interest in rating your favorite five baseball video games of all time? 2:52 Paul Sporer: MLB The Show, MVP 2005, OOTP, Ken Griffey Jr, RBI Baseball, 2:53 the uncontrollable urge: is Y Ventura going to be a WHIP bomb all season? hard to stomach 2:53 Paul Sporer: Ya, kinda been his MO so far. I see a path where he can improve it, but smart money says that will remain his flaw for now 2:53 The Six (Views From): If Dee Gordon has been dropped in my 12 team roto, what would be the tipping point in terms of games served to pick him up? 2:54 Paul Sporer: I’d wait a month, so if he’s still out there after 50 served 2:54 Gavin: You mentioned that you talked about him on the pocast so I’ll check it out, but Crush Carter rocking the lowest k% and O-zone swinging k rate of his career. What does this mean???? 2:54 Paul Sporer: Again it’s on the pod. But the K% still isn’t anywhere near *good*. He’s showing some improved skills, but not so much that he’s a different player 2:55 Byron Buxton: Please tell me im not another Camerin Maybin. I just moved Carlos Rodon for him in a keeper league. 2:55 Paul Sporer: You’re 21. Relax. 2:55 Argo: Bigger impact ROS: Rendon or Javier Baez? 2:55 Paul Sporer: Rendon 2:55 MB: Dynasty, which side? Edwin or Schwarb? thx 2:55 Paul Sporer: Edwin 2:55 Future Ace: Who do you like more: McCullers or Gausman this season? Will McCullers have any more pitching limits? 2:55 Paul Sporer: Gausman, and yes he will 2:56 Paul Sporer: OK y’all, tight chat today because I’m out of town this weekend and have to get a lot done today 2:56 Paul Sporer: we’ll marathon it next week! 2:57 Paul Sporer: Hit me up on Twitter (@sporer) if you have other questions and if you’re a video game fan, I stream on Twitch.tv (psporer24) at nights and play MLB The Show while answering questions similar to one of these chats 2:58 Wil Myer’s Mom: As hard as it was to do so. I sent VV packing for JD Martinez. What do you say to that? 2:58 Paul Sporer: I say well done 2:58 Paul Sporer: Thanks again for coming out. Take care.