Paul Sporer Fangraphs Chat – July 14th, 2016

Chat starts around 11:00 Central!

11:04
Paul Sporer: Early chat on the front paaaagggeeeee!!!!

11:04
Eric: Baseball America recently ranked Trea Turner ahead of Swanson on their mid season list. Would you agree for fantasy purposes? In a keeper would you rather have 2 years of Turner or 3 of Swanson?

11:05
Paul Sporer: For fantasy, I would lean toward Turner because steals are even rarer this year and that’s his game

11:05
Bork: Hello, friend!

11:05
Paul Sporer: Yo!

11:05
Andy: You buying Robbie Ray in the 2nd half? Solid peripherals, bad BABIP…?

11:06
Paul Sporer: It’s bad because he gets hammered. Has a 35% Hard contact rate every year. He’s contributing to the BABIP, imo. I think he can be better than a 4.81 ERA, but I’m not seeing a big surge coming

11:06
Dave: where’s Eno? FML

11:06
Paul Sporer: Oh.

11:06
Justin T: Pick up Didi Gregorius and drop Baez?

11:07
Paul Sporer: I like Didi, but Baez has a more diverse skill set

11:07
Maxamuz:

11:07
StroShow: How would you rank Tillman, Chen and Moore RoS in a QS league?

11:08
Paul Sporer: Tillman, Moore, Chen. Could see Moore dealt, too

11:08
MikeMilligan: Any hope for Gio Gonzalez and Kazmir to turn things around ?

11:08
Paul Sporer: Sure, there’s some. The HR wave caught Gio, though, so that sucks.

11:08
Eric: I’d love some keeper advice ahead of my leagues trade deadline. What 3 would you keep in 12 tm: Salazar (17th RD), CMart (16th), Stroman (18th), Fulmer (22nd), Urias (19th)? Thanks

11:08
Paul Sporer: Salazar, CMart, and Fulmer, but I’d try not to keep so many SPs

11:09
Dave: I’m happy Albies was ranked in the top 20, I think he could be the next Altuve. Thoughts??

11:09
Paul Sporer: That’s a lofty tag to put on anyone. I know Eno really likes him, though

11:09
Steve: What do you think of Rick Porcello? Do his peripherals suggest he’s over performing or is this breakout legit?

11:11
Paul Sporer: Not sure it’s a really breakout. He looks the same as last year with a slightly improved HR rate. I’ve always like Porcello more than most, but I think he’s just a mid-rotation guy at this point

11:11
Mikey: Does Berrios get recalled soon?

11:11
Paul Sporer: Probably should, yeah. Maybe post deadline if they flip a couple guys. Has a 2.98 ERA and 65 Ks in 66 IP since demotion

11:11
Bork: There better be ludes in here or else I’m reporting you

11:12
Paul Sporer: This is a front page chat, man. Cameron and Sullivan get all the ludes

11:12
Paul Sporer: I’m just lucky to be here

11:12
Coach McGuirk: Chris Archer at home against Baltimore and at Colorado this week, or Steven Wright in Yankee stadium and with the Twins at home? You can also answer that both are too risky and I should start Ryan Dull for the week.

11:13
Paul Sporer: I’d give Wright a go. I think Archer is too scary.

11:13
Willie: Hey Paul – How would you rank these SP’s for ROS for 5×5 – Ventura, J. Ross, J. Garcia, Kennedy and Fiers? Thanks

11:14
Paul Sporer: think I got Garcia, Ventura, Ross (don’t forget, he’s nicked right now), Fiers, and Kennedy. You may prefer Fiers’ high floor to Ross’ higher ceiling

11:14
Steve: Watched your MLB The Show live stream the other night and loved it. Really regretting recently purchasing an Xbox One over the PS4. Why is the world so cruel and doesn’t allow us Xbox gamers to play MLB games???

11:15
Paul Sporer: Thanks so much, Steve! The Show was 100000% the reason I moved to PS4 with next-gen. I was stuck w/the weak XB360 baseball offerings all these years. So glad I switched over

11:15
Paul Sporer: Unfortunately, there won’t be any Show on XB1 bc Sony owns the game

11:15
Eric: How quickly do you think JD Mart gets back to normal when he returns? I’m out of contention in a 12 tm OPS keeper and trying to decide whether to unload him or hold and keep him in the 4th RD.

11:17
Paul Sporer: I think it will take a little. It is an elbow which seems like it would impact his power some. if you’re out of it, I’d see about moving him, but if the bites are weak, just hold

11:17
bakkemon: speaking of steals: out of revere, merrifield and jankowski, who swipes more bags second half?

11:17
Paul Sporer: Jankowski seems to have an angle on that PT over Revere so I’ll lean him, but then Revere and Merrifield

11:18
Young Jeezy: Trade deadline in out 12 team H2H league is fastly approaching. We get to keep 2 keepers with no type of penalties. I have kept Donaldson the past few year, but I have Betts on my team and I’m thinking about keeping him. Would you explore a trade for Donaldson and try to get something out of him (ie draft pick(s))?

11:18
Paul Sporer: 2 free keeps, why not Betts & JD?

11:19
Cire52: Hey, Paul! What’s your outlook on the type of second half Justin Upton could have? Also, how confident are you that McCutchen will be able to raise his average and OBP? Thanks a lot.

11:20
Paul Sporer: Sup Cire. I think J Up will be better than 1H, but not quite the J Up we’re used to. He’s just fanning too much. I think Cutch puts up => .800 OPS rest of the way. Not THAT crazy from his .745, but definitely better

11:20
Rick: Molina, Cervelli, or Castro ROS?

11:21
Paul Sporer: Man C sucks this year! Cervelli.

11:21
Eric: Do you anticipate trades when adding deep bench flyers this time of year? If so, who are some names you’re adding?

11:21
Paul Sporer: I don’t. I used to, but I’ve found it too fruitless. We just don’t have as firm a hold on the possible trade market as we’d like to believe. You can speculate on some guys from the weaker times likely to be active (Oakland, Atlanta), but I wouldn’t get crazy

11:22
Paul Sporer: Still fire af.

11:22
The Cincinnati Kid: Paul can you answer beer questions too with waves and waves of hair for the babes?

11:22
Paul Sporer: It’s probably hard to acquire bc it’s so awesome and rare, but I’d try to get my hands on some of those Smirnoff Ices

11:22
Rick from NC: Fulmer a top 20 Dynasty SP?

11:22
Paul Sporer: That’s lofty

11:22
berezin: Impressive stats for Vince Velasquez. What to expect during the second half ?

11:22
Paul Sporer: An innings cap

11:23
John Stamos: Currently own both Rosenthal (also have Oh) and Ottavino in a 14 team dynasty (Saves category). Should I drop Rosenthal or is he still a hold?

11:23
Paul Sporer: I don’t think Oh relinquishes the role. You can cut Rosy

11:23
Timmy: Paul, why is it ok for people to come up to guys like us and say, “wow, you’re tall! How tall are you!?” I don’t walk up to fat people and point out how obese they are or ask short people if they’re jockeys.

11:24
Paul Sporer: I used to do a bit on that in my stand up days

11:24
Paul Sporer: That is one thing that if I truly got a nickel for each time, I’d have a good bit of money

11:24
JT: Will Kevin Newman’s total package make him a ML regular? The hit tool looks good so far.

11:24
Paul Sporer: I’m not familiar with him, sorry.

11:25
Paul Sporer: Ah, Pittsburgh 1st rounder who just got up to AA. I have some AA knowledge, but my bandwidth usually stops around AAA

11:25
Simmy: Rank by saves ROS: buchter, cabrera (braves), ottavino. And it’s fine if u think all get zero..

11:26
Paul Sporer: I like em in your order, but I think Buchter is significantly ahead right now bc he has a line to the job in SD w/Rodney gone

11:27
Steve: How much do you hate it when people ask the same question repeatedly in these chats? I’m trying to gauge when it’s appropriate for me to submit another Porcello question.

11:27
Paul Sporer: I genuinely hate it

11:27
The Cincinnati Kid: What closers are at risk of LOSING saves at the trade deadline? Allen? Besides Buchter and Dull, who do you have at the top chasing saves?

11:28
Paul Sporer: Rondon in Chicago and Dyson in Texas. Neither has been bad, but their teams are both sniffing around that NYY bullpen

11:28
another bad dynasty manager: Hi Paul: what do you think about stashing Chad Green for dynasty leagues? Great whiff rates with his four and two seamers and there’s no way he’ll have a HR/FB rate this bad in the future. Plus, I’m guessing Rothschild tries to get him to throw a splitter as he did with Eovaldi. Thanks!

11:29
Paul Sporer: Not a bad super-cheap stash at all for the reasons you outline. Love a guy who can get the whiffs. It’s a good foundation even when everything else needs work

11:29
einstein2u: Dylan bundy, do you see him start in the 2nd half?

11:30
Paul Sporer: I could see some starts, but I don’t see him as full time SP

11:31
11:31
Sauce: Will Trumbo collapse or keep it going in 2nd half?

11:32
Paul Sporer: I’ve moved away from the collapse side. I think 50 HRs is very much in play even if the AVG doesn’t hold at .288.

11:32
Paul Sporer: We discussed Trumbo yesterday on the pod if you’re interested in more. Eno covered some of his changes

11:32
Bork: Because of the Canadian anthem drama the Jays should get a free pass to the World Series and a 3-0 series lead.

11:32
Paul Sporer: Seems legit.

11:32
Ryan: Danny Espinosa, Jose Ramirez, or Anthony Rendon as a replacement for Carpenter at 2B?

11:33
Paul Sporer: I’m still going Rendon. I see a big run at some pt in the 2H from him

11:33
Minnesota Mark: Thoughts on Duffey and Gibson for the second half?

11:33
Paul Sporer: Both allow too many damn HRs to be all that successful right now

11:33
Benny: This is the second straight year that Jesse Winker has had wrist problems. He’s pretty risky at this point, no?

11:34
Paul Sporer: Yeah, especially since he was already risky just by virtue of being a prospect. Wrist problems sap power and he didn’t have a lot to give

11:34
Paul Sporer: Just add The Weeknd to every song at this point. He’s awesome.

11:35
Eric: Is this the level of production we should expect from Jake Lamb moving forward?

11:36
Paul Sporer: No, he’s 267 pts ahead of last year’s OPS. He’s a power beast for sure, but I’d plan for some regression and if he somehow keeps it up, then you get a nice surprise

11:36
Paul Sporer: I’d be careful to expect any big surprises to fully maintain their 1H performance.

11:37
Timmy: Dang you’re tall! Did you play basketball!?!?

11:37
Paul Sporer: LOL

11:37
Paul Sporer: “Nope, horse racing was shit, though!”

11:37
Avi: After Giolito’s struggle in his last 2 starts (both minors and majors), will he remain in the minors until rosters expand or is Joe Ross that far away from returning?

11:39
Paul Sporer: I don’t think those starts impact it that much. I think they are going to be cautious with him no matter what

11:39
Rick: Steamer has Brandon Crawford and Brad Miller at the same level of production ROS, is it worth “losing” a trade to get Crawford?

11:40
Paul Sporer: Losing how?

11:40
Bart: Would you take a chance and keep Harvey for next season? I can keep 5 players and my other keepers are Carrasco, Harper, Cespedes and/or Freeman.

11:40
Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think so. The return rates from thoracic aren’t encouraging at all. I’m on the wait and see train w/Harvey now

11:40
Jsd: Building off the don’t keep pitchers, how far above a position player would you keep the pitcher? For instance, overall, 30th ranked pitcher over the 50th ranked position player? I tend to not keep a SP unless they are super cheap and reliable ($1 top 30) or amazing stud ($10 Scherzer).

11:41
Paul Sporer: Ya I think you’ve pretty much got it. They need to be appreciably better or super cheap. It’s not that I’ll NEVER keep a pitcher, but I’m exhausting all of my hitter avenues first for sure

11:41
Billieie: Andrew Miller to TEX trade rumors from a few hours have been shot down all over the place. If Miller does get moved though, no way they wouldn’t also move Chapman, right?

11:41
Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say no way

11:42
Paul Sporer: If they come out of the break 0-5, they’re selling off

11:42
Curious: Any chance Yoan Moncada makes it up this year?

11:43
Paul Sporer: Not without injuries. He’s a beast, but he’s been in AA for 2 minutes and where would he play? I’m not sure they’d push him to the OF for an MLB debut

11:43
A-Aron: Hey Paul – are you activating Darvish for his weekend start against the Cubs? Or is this more of a see how he does and wait until next week.

11:44
Paul Sporer: I think I’m starting Darvish, even v. CHC

11:44
John C.: Paul who do you like better as a 5th outfielder type? Granderson or Kim? Granderson’s numbers in the recent RF Contact Report were brutal.

11:44
Paul Sporer: Curtis Granderson is the single best player and human to ever grace this fine Earth of ours

11:45
Paul Sporer: Kidding aside, I’d make it a needs-based thing. If I need power, Curtis; if I need AVG, Kim

11:45
Ricky: I just traded Sonny Gray for Archer in a ten team points league. How do you see their second half going?

11:46
Paul Sporer: That’s a classic challenge trade. I prefer the Archer side.

11:46
Eric: Randal Grichuk: just a solid little run after his call-up or is there something in there to make us believe he’s taking a step forward?

11:47
Paul Sporer: He went down and smoked AAA, too. Thing is, he wasn’t as bad as the work before his demotion. Think they just wanted him to clear his head

11:47
Jeff: in a 10 team mixed league, needing power and average ROS, who has a better shot Naquin or Kepler? Both are intriguing, just hoping Naquin loses playing time to Brantley when he comes back

11:47
Paul Sporer: I don’t trust Naquin’s newfound power, so I go Kep

11:47
Billieie: Think Peraza has over 15 steals in the second half? Bruce should be moved… Plus BP has a busted hand and is playing through pain instead of surgery.

11:48
Paul Sporer: Ya I can dig that for sure

11:48
Tom Veryzer: If Madsen is dealt, is Dull or Axford the closer

11:48
Paul Sporer: I think Dull gets the look

11:48
greg: So if the home team supplies the bat boy for the visitor, do they just stash 29 different sets of tiny away team uniforms?

11:48
Paul Sporer: Oh wow, that’s a hilarious and interesting question. I really don’t know

11:49
Mikey: Are Cody Reed and A.J. Reed on paths to value this season?

11:50
Paul Sporer: That really depends on league type. Cody needs to find a way to keep the damn ball in the yard, so I’d lean AJ between the two

11:51
Dave: What does Sonny Gray’s second half look like?

11:52
Paul Sporer: Upper-3.00s, low-4.00s. Can’t seem to avoid that implosion start

11:52
Curious: Keeper league, trade Bregman for Moncada?

11:52
Paul Sporer: Sure. Two of the very best prospects in the game, though so hard to go wrong

11:53
Willie: Do you think Corey Dickerson is starting to come around? Who would you rather have ROS Dickerson or Chris Carter?

11:53
Paul Sporer: I’d lean Carter

11:53
John: Any reason to expect a strong second half from Smyly, Liriano, or Corbin? My league is H2H Mixed 6×6 and those three guys have been killing me, but I haven’t been able to bring myself to cut them.

11:55
Paul Sporer: Liriano is a total mess, Corbin has been getting BLASTED (39% hard contact), and Smyly has been super volatile thanks to HRs. Of the 3, I prefer Smyly, but all three have enough warts to be leery. I’d go ahead and cut Corbin immediately

11:55
Mike: Paul need a starting pitcher: Lucas Harrell, Mike Montgomery, Luis Perdomo or Tyler Duffey?

11:57
Paul Sporer: Isn’t Monty just a spot starter right now? I’ll sneak tip Perdomo

11:57
Young Jeezy: Listened to you and Eno’s rough draft of top 5 players. No mention of Donaldson. Where does he rank? Numbers alone, he has to be above Bryant, Betts, Harper and Arenado. The guy is amazing! Give that man some love!

11:59
Paul Sporer: lots of candidates for that top 5 for sure. I can’t quibble w/JD love. He will be 31 next year, but that’s not old and he’s elite

11:59
Bork: What’s your guess for when Sanchez is going to be moved to the pen?

11:59
Paul Sporer: mid-August

11:59
natsfan: Do you see Ji Man Choi doing anything beyond being a replacement quality player in Anaheim while Cron is injured?

12:01
Paul Sporer: Nah, not really

12:01
Josh: What do you think of Reddick in 12 team leagues? Does he have enough power to matter? Grichuk is on the wire, but I don’t know what to expect from him at this point.

12:02
Paul Sporer: I’d go Reddick over Grichuk. Reddick could be joining a new, better lineup very soon, too

12:02
Dick Allen: Kyle Seager and Jake Lamb, who do I hold on to and who do I try to trade in a 12-team roto league? With Arenado as my starting third baseman and only 1 utility spot im out of room.

12:02
Paul Sporer: I think Lamb gets you more on the market right now

12:02
Davy: Hi Paul. I am curious what you think about Danny Espinosa ROS and beyond. He’s at 2.5 WAR this year, with just over half of that from defense. The projections expect his second half to be 0.6-0.8 WAR, presumably keeping the defense but giving up all of his offensive gains. Does that sound right to you?

12:04
Paul Sporer: I’m a little mad at him because I actually really liked him as a late round pick this year under the assumption that Baker would lean on him over Turner bc he favors vets. But when he had a .199/.297/.325 through may, I started cutting him. Grrr. Anyway, i think his proetions ROS are in line

12:04
Paul Sporer: projections*

12:05
kris: Conforto or Benintendi ROS? What about for 2017?

12:05
Paul Sporer: Conforto for both. I just don’t have a read on Beni yet

12:05
Mikey: Time to dump Blake Snell in redraft league?

12:05
Paul Sporer: Not yet. They could be active at the deadline and open a permanent spot for him

12:05
Jeff: 10 team mixed, ROS for Wins and Whip, who do you like out of Wacha, Danny Duffy, Mccarthy or Porcello? just stream for fear of puking on your polo just rostering these guys all summer? Or do any stand out to you, thanks and as always, really appreciate the work you do. You and Eno should do a traveling live Bar podcast a week out of the year.

12:07
Paul Sporer: RE: the last idea, that’d be really fun. I’d go with Duffy of that group. Really nice upside. If he can just keep the ball in the yard a littttllleeee more…..

12:07
Floyd Rayford: In AL-only, is either J Morneau or C Collabello worth picking up if you have nobody else by Jefry Marte to play Corner Infield?

12:08
Paul Sporer: I guess you can take a shot on Colabello.

12:09
Seabass: Time to shotgun my second chicken parm sub of the day

12:09
Paul Sporer: LOL noyce!

12:09
Alex: What level tier hitter or pitcher should I be looking at in selling Fulmer?

12:09
Paul Sporer: As high as you can get!

12:09
Paul Sporer: Markets will vary. I’d go for as high of a bat as I could get

12:09
somedude: What are the odds that Tyson Ross bounces back when he comes off the DL? Is he a good buy-low candidate?

12:10
Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’s a worthy gamble, especially with wires being so thin right now

12:10
Blue Morpho: 10-team H2h formats. I find myself in the same scenario in two leagues, my lineups are top notch, but my starters are mostly hurt and struggling. My competitors are largely ignoring rp’s and closers, so I’m well stocked there. Is it too risky to trade off some starters to form a super team of relievers and hitters? (wins, k, saves, era, whip)

12:13
Paul Sporer: I’m not sure you’d take Wins w/a buncha RPs, but I’m OK going with the strategy

12:14
Nate: What kind of return can I get from trading Lucroy? (12 team, head-head Yahoo league)

12:15
Paul Sporer: These questions are impossible to answer. Every league market is completely different so I can’t even really foster a guess. I’d put him out there and see if you find a deal that suits you

12:15
Harry Caray’s Ghost: There’s not a reason to hold on to Jung Ho Kang anymore is there? He’s been struggling mightily and a suspension is almost certainly coming soon.

12:15
Paul Sporer: Depends on league type

12:16
Paul Sporer: but ya his struggles seem to line up with the allegations he’s facing. it is still innocent until proven guilty, but it’s not going well right now

12:16
Red West: Could you rank these long/middle relievers and tell me which ones are worth rostering in AL-Only: Felix (Hou), Andrese (TB), Karns (Sea), Flynn (KC), Bundy (Balt).

12:16
Paul Sporer: Feliz, Bundy, Karns are my faves

12:16
Mike: Greinke for Dee Gordon – which side do you like value-wise? 10-team H2H league with standard categories; both trade partners likely to make playoffs so don’t worry about the next couple of weeks.

12:17
Paul Sporer: Gimme Gordon there

12:17
Young Jeezy: I forgot to mention my 1 keeper always is (and will be, because I friggin love him) is Kershaw. So I’d be looking at a Kershaw & Betts combo…?

12:18
Paul Sporer: Ohhhhh ok. Ya I’d go with those 2, but honestly Betts v. JD is a total coinflip, IMO

12:18
Tim: You throwing Gerrit Cole out there in his first start back?

12:18
Paul Sporer: I would, yes

12:18
Timmy: Harvey was abused (although, not as bad as some in NCAA) at UNC and now he’s had all sorts of health issues. I know we can prove causation, but folks in NC refuse to acknowledge any misuse when it is done by their beloved Coach Fox (and I’m a Tar Heel). Damn shame.

12:18
Paul Sporer: The downside looming over most college SPs, tbh

12:18
Seabass: If you had to spend $3000 in one of these two ways, would you spend it on a tuna sandwich a day for two straight years or pokeballs in pokemon go?

12:19
Paul Sporer: I don’t playe Pokemon, but that’s what I’d spend it on

12:19
Paul Sporer: Because otherwise, that’s entirely too much tuna

12:19
Paul Sporer: (you got prahnkt)

12:19
Josh: I’m worried about losing Kang to a suspension in the 2nd half; which SS would be a better replacement: Cozart or Gregorious? 12 tm h2h

12:19
Paul Sporer: Gimme Didi

12:19
Alex: Abreu, Pearce, Zimmerman, Mauer or Solarte at 1B in an OBP/XBH 12 team ROS?

12:20
Paul Sporer: I’ll still take the shot on Abreu. Love Solarte, but his value is using him elsewhere, not 1B

12:20
Bart: please rank Peralta, Bour (both on the DL) and Grichek.

12:21
Paul Sporer: Bour, Grich, Peralta (love Peralta, but his health has been sketchy all year)

12:21
2017: In a K friendly points league, would you rather keep Arrieta for 1 year or M Fulmer for 3 years? Both $1

12:21
Paul Sporer: Still Arrieta

12:21
The Kid: Frazier seemed to have balls start to drop going into the ASB. It’s gotta get better for him in the second half, right? Or, do you foresee the same kind of second half ineptitude that has plagued him the past two seasons?

12:22
Paul Sporer: Ya his batted ball profile has started to round into form in July so I expect better BABIP results as long as he’s stinging it

12:22
Eric: Who’s closing for the Brewers after the deadline? Jeffress? Smith? Some rando?

12:23
Paul Sporer: really depends who gets moved. I think Jeffress stays, so I’ll say him

12:23
Andrew: does Maurer keep the role all year and deliver solid ratios?

12:25
Paul Sporer: Oh snap, Maurer news missed my radar. Thought it was still Buchter getting the role. I think Maurer holds it if he keeps the ball in the park, which he has of late: 1.98 ERA, 18 Ks in 13.7 IP w/0 HR

12:26
Victor: Aaron Sanchez is on fire right now, should I try to use inning cap limit to scare owner into trading him to me? AL only dynasty

12:26
Paul Sporer: ya if you can make it to the finish line with someone else, then you can reap the future rewards. love Sanchez

12:26
Matt: Sold off this season, and shooting for first ever 10 point roto season. Purchased Cobb at $1 for a keeper for next year. Thoughts?

12:27
Paul Sporer: I like the gamble. Always been a Cobb backer. I hope he comes back from the TJ nicely. Health always a concern w/him (even more so than normal for SPs)

12:27
Chopper Dave: Stroman still intriguing in deep AL-Only dynasty leagues? I just bought low.

12:27
Paul Sporer: Ya definitely. He has disappointed against expectations this year, but he’s still just 25

12:27
seth: 16 team keeper league with deep rosters, keepable wil myers for unkeepable votto and choo? I’m in 5th where top 4 pay out

12:29
Paul Sporer: if you have the points to gain from that 5th spot, go ahead and get the duo but I do love Myers

12:29
Paul Sporer: so be honest with your possible points before pulling the trigger

12:29
Jack: Do you use any message boards for fantasy? If so, which ones would you recommend?

12:30
Paul Sporer: I don’t really get into many. This is still my hood where I lurk from time to time http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/forum.php

12:30
Paul Sporer: that’s where I met Collette back in ’02

12:30
Chopper Dave: Better than 50% that Sonny Gray gets traded? I’d be surprised if Beane let him go at much of a discount from whatever he wanted this past offseason.

12:30
Paul Sporer: Nah, I’d say 50% max

12:30
bpqa: What even is a Sporer?

12:31
Paul Sporer: Sporer – noun – a tall, lanky badass adept at being a nerd about baseball and obsessing over his awesome dog

12:31
Bork: You can make fun of short people all you want. Borkwife is 4’10. It’s basically a national sport in my household to make fun of her height.

12:31
Paul Sporer: Believe it or not, I dated a girl who was 4’10

12:31
Paul Sporer: it didn’t last long.

12:31
Tim: Oooh, also – what are you expecting from Alex Wood once he’s back?

12:32
Paul Sporer: Never been a huge fan so I’m tepid on him. But he was beasting before the DL. I think the mechanics he has breed volatility so I still see him more as high-3.00s at best

12:33
Suicide Squad: I’ve been excited and then sickened by the unrelenting previews and promotion for this movie. Will I go see it? Probably not. But Margot Robbie mmmm

12:34
Paul Sporer: I mean, it’s DC’s big shot to get in the game as Marvel has routinely owned them. I’m really excited for it. It could be the summer blockbuster! I do think it will be her coming out party.

12:34
Paul Sporer: People know her, but she’s not quite a household name yet. I think this movie does that for her

12:34
Paul: PECOTA seems to think Austin Hedges is now a sure fire first ballot hall of famer. Seems fair.

12:34
Paul Sporer: Dude can’t hit

12:35
Greg: Would you trade Jay Bruce for Eric Hosmer? Thanks

12:35
Paul Sporer: Sure! That seems fair

12:35
Pokemon Go: What level are you?

12:35
Paul Sporer: 0

12:35
Paul Sporer: I don’t hate it or anything, I just don’t play

12:35
Will: Is it wrong of me to expect Votto to go bananas in the second half again this year? Literally ran a 211 wrC+ in 325 pa post asb last year

12:37
Paul Sporer: Well ya bc the ASB has nothing to do with it. I can see him having a better 2H than 1H because he’s been getting better of late anyway

12:37
Paul: Rank ROS for CI players: Castellanos, Franco, Justin Turner, VMart

12:39
Paul Sporer: VMart, Franco, Turner, Casty

12:39
Gangs of New York: Man, that was a solid movie. Every time I see Buchter I think of Bill the Butcher

12:39
Paul Sporer: LOL

12:39
Bork: Was Terry Crews batting shirtless your highlight of the all star break?

12:39
Paul Sporer: No, bc he f’n K’d

12:39
Paul Sporer: if you’re ripped like that, I totally get going shirtless, but you can’t then K

12:39
Paul Sporer: IN SOFTBALL

12:40
Bob Dobolina: Trumbo was a huge sell-high candidate early on, but I wound up hanging onto him and it’s paid off big so far. Any chance he actually keeps the power up rest of the way? Or still a sell high guy?

12:40
Paul Sporer: ya I was calling for sell high for sure, but I’ve toned down on that and I think he stays good enough to just hold. i think 50 HRs are on tap so the power will be enough even if AVG tanks

12:40
Sulzer: Hi Pauleno! What can I expect from Tyler Anderson ROS? Does great stats, and no wins sound about right? Can he keep it up? Thanks man!

12:41
Paul Sporer: I like what I’ve seen for sure. Coors still makes it hella volatile, though. So maybe just start him on the road

12:41
Happy Birthday: To my mom! She spawned a champion

12:41
Paul Sporer: Don’t make a joke about wishing her happy birthday this morning..

12:41
Paul Sporer: Don’t make a joke about wishing her happy birthday this morning..

12:41
Paul Sporer: Don’t make a joke about wishing her happy birthday this morning..

12:41
Toki: Who has the higher offensive ceiling between Bregman and Crawford?

12:42
Paul Sporer: Bregman, assuming you mean JP Crawford

12:42
All Betts Off: Hey Paul,

12:42
Paul Sporer: Hi

12:42
Greg: Russillo & Kanell starts in 30 min. Will you be done with this chat in time?

12:42
Paul Sporer: Nope

12:42
JalapEno: Is there video of you doing stand up out there?

12:42
Paul Sporer: i don’t think so unfortunately

12:42
Dave: Has Wil Myers turned some sort of corner? Is he just healthy this year (so far)? How do you value him in a keeper league, I guess?

12:42
Paul Sporer: it’s health. Skills have always been really good

12:43
Bo: How much is too much for a generational talent like Trout? I’m in a 12-team 5×5, keep 4 forever, and I was just offered Trout/Sale/Russell/Giles for Betts/Bogaerts/Myers/Britton. Getting Trout in a keeper league would be amazing, but I’m afraid that’s too much, particularly because I’m in 1st place and I’d be losing my three most productive hitters.

12:43
Paul Sporer: ya that’s just an unnecessary for a first place team. Don’t sweat keepers rn, you have a title to win

12:43
All Betts Off: I am in a VERY deep redraft and SP is hard to come by. I offered Sano for C Archer. He came back with our Hanley. What do you think of either offer? What do you think about Archer ROS?

12:44
Paul Sporer: I’d prefer to give Hanley between the 2.

12:44
PR: need your help. pls rank for me: Davies, Paxton, Peavy and Chen

12:44
Paul Sporer: Paxton, Chen, Davies, open spot, me, just a hat, Peavy

12:44
Maxamuz:

12:45
Phantom of the Chakra: Once again I’m being told that E-Rod has figured out the pitch-tipping thing. Since you’re the resident expert on the matter, should I be buying in? Starting him vs. NYY? Or is this a fool me thrice scenario?

12:45
Paul Sporer: Passsssss he’s gotta prove it now. Full on wait and see for me

12:45
Rogue One: If the Cubs get Miller, who closes? Rondon has been lights out. Won’t Maddon want to use Miller before the 9th?

12:45
Paul Sporer: Nah i think if they get Miller, he closes

12:45
Mike: Alright I really want Betts on my dynasty. Which 2 players would be ok to offer for him? Buxton, Pollock, Springer, Polanco, Freeman…?

12:45
Paul Sporer: Pollock and Buxton

12:46
Bart: Will the Pirates send Josh Bell to the minors? I have him sitting on my Bn in 2 leagues and am wondering what to do with him?

12:46
Paul Sporer: Really supposed to be brief https://twitter.com/Sawchik_Trib/status/751506855701217280

12:47
Maxamuz:

12:47
John: Is now the time to trade danny salazar in a keeper league, or is he a true ace?

12:47
Paul Sporer: I think he’s a true stud, but if you can really cash in, then consider it. Always a good idea to cash in on SPs

12:47
Phantom of the Chakra: I hope you’ve spent time with Chance’s other albums, especially Acid Rap, which are all stronger, IMO, than Coloring Book.

12:47
Paul Sporer: I have, but I don’t agree. I like Acid Rap, but prefer Coloring Book. Ppreciate you lookin out, though!

12:47
daneyko: Very good 2nd half in 2015 for Collin McHugh. Same thing this year ?

12:50
Paul Sporer: There’s nothing inherent about the 2H that spurs a run, though, so maybe he’s better, but not bc it’s July/Aug/Sept. Plus his ’15 had like one bad stretch: 3.23 in first 6, 6.86 in next 7, 3.12 in final 19

12:51
Paul Sporer: Mchugh went 6.59 ERA in first 6, down to 3.74 in last 12

12:51
Bill: If you had the roster space, would you speculatively add Betances now in case the Yankees move both Chapman and Miller?

12:53
Paul Sporer: Yes, especially bc Betances does enough to be mixed lg viable even without saves

12:53
JD: Carlos Beltran for Chapman? I need bullpen help

12:53
Paul Sporer: Solid deal

12:53
Paul Sporer: Chapman will close even if he moves

12:53
Bart: which simulation game do you prefer, baseball mogul or OOTPB?

12:53
Paul Sporer: OOTP

12:53
Bill: As a tall guy, if I get asked one more time by a stranger to get something off a high shelf at a store, I’m going to hurt that person.

12:53
Paul Sporer: LOL, Hammer don’t hurt ’em!

12:54
mathenging ’16: sorry to bring it up but how often do you get called McLovin?

12:54
Paul Sporer: You’re not sorry, though

12:56
Paul Sporer: The movie is nearly a decade old at this point. I think my new glasses curb some of the lookalike-ness

12:56
Joe D: In a keep forever league, trade buxton, Bergman, and Carlos Martinez for betts?

12:56
Paul Sporer: Ya I’m OK with that

12:59
Bart: Do you think Nola gets back on track in the 2nd half?

12:59
Paul Sporer: Ya I think he irons it out some

12:59
JD: In a dynasty league traded Naquin and Wong for half season of Cole Hamels. Felt like Naquin due for regression and I needed solid SP. Thoughts?

1:00
Paul Sporer: Ya I like that!

1:00
Oliver: When is it time to start thinking about stashing Moncada in a 12 team keep 10 forever league?

1:00
Paul Sporer: 2017

1:00
Paul Sporer: I’m not sure he’s a top 120 keep going into ’17 already

1:00
Gerry: Have held on to Dee Gordon the entire span of the suspension, but now looking to move him in a H2H (5×5) league. What sort of SP return can I expect to get back? Has his value been hurt at all?

1:00
Paul Sporer: Probably has been hurt. Impossible to answer what you’ll get, bc it’s what your market will bear

1:01
Aaron Sanchez: How much longer am I starting games until? And what is a reasonable package that I can get traded for in a keeper league?

1:01
Paul Sporer: i’d say mid-August

1:01
Oliver: Thinking about dealing my Correa for a pitcher in a 10 team h2h points league. I know you dont like the “who should I get” Qs, but would an SP in the Gerrit Cole range be ok? Or shoot better, healthier?

1:01
Paul Sporer: Ya I like when you throw a name. I’d say shoot healthier for Correa.

1:01
Roger: Thoughts on Devon Travis? Would he be preferable to Rendon?

1:02
Paul Sporer: I prefer Rendon, but it’s close enough that a Travis argument exists. i’m starting to buy his power a bit more

1:03
Phantom of the Chakra: Hi Paul. Thanks for all the chattery. Wondering about Kevin Kiermaier’s return to TB. You think he’ll get steady ABs? Will he be good at baseball, by which I mean relative to other major leaguers, not to you or me?

1:06
Paul Sporer: He will definitely get playing time. I think he will be OK, but he wasn’t THAT great before the injury from a triple slash standpoint

1:06
JD: What is the playing time situation upon the return of Dee Gordon?

1:06
Paul Sporer: He will definitely play. they will figure it out with Dietrich

1:06
Paul Sporer: but Dietrich takes the hit initially

1:06
JD: When are Benintendi and Bregman coming up? Worth rostering both of them for rest of the year even if I’m in the hunt (deep keeper league)?

1:07
Paul Sporer: No idea. I wouldn’t roster both.

1:08
Mike: Picked up Victor Robles- love his game as many scouts have raved about him. Thoughts?

1:09
Paul Sporer: Huge prospect, but a loooong way out

1:09
Zork: What needs replacing more? O.co or the Trop?

1:09
Paul Sporer: Trop

1:09
Paul D: Ken Giles back as Astros’ closer in 2H?

1:10
Paul Sporer: He has the skills, but Will Harris would have to falter

1:11
Guest: I just traded Castellanos for Polanco. How’d I do ROS?

1:11
Paul Sporer: Strong, great work

1:11
Mike: What’s up with Byron Buxton.. long-term, does he figure it out or are there too many flaws in his offensive game?

1:12
Paul Sporer: It’s too early to say he’s cooked, but this isn’t a nothing of sample size of nothingness. Eno has suggested a Cam Maybin path

1:12
JP: why are the NYM seemingly hell-bent on keeping herrera in the minors?

1:12
Paul Sporer: He’s 22 and not exactly smashing AAA

1:12
Rich Hill: What the heck do I do with Rich Hill in a 14 team forever keeper? I just have no idea how to value him.

1:13
Paul Sporer: I think you just ride it out, it’s not like he cost a lot

1:13
Daniel: Would you trade Chris Davis for Felix? I use Chris Davis at UTIL and have V-Mart, Kendrys, Puig, Carlos Gomez on my bench that I can plug in. 10 team Points league

1:14
Paul Sporer: I feel like Davis should bring a better arm than a hobbled Felix

1:15
Steve: Pollock or Buxton in dynasty format?

1:15
Paul Sporer: Pollock

1:15
AJ: What do I with Danny Valencia?

1:15
Paul Sporer: Just ride it out. He didnt’ cost anything

1:15
John: I own Bauer ($1) and Taijuan ($6) are both good keeper options? Or should I look elsewhere?

1:16
Paul Sporer: Depends on league size. Neither is an automatic amazing keeper, but they’re fair enough to keep

1:16
Olerud: Does Rajai Davis stay fantasy relevant? How many runs do you think he ends up scoring?

1:17
Paul Sporer: he’s never not been fantasy relevant given his speed so I think he stays relevant, yes

1:17
Anthony: Tanaka ROS?!

1:17
Paul Sporer: I think he will keep pitching

1:17
twinmh: Chances Sano gets starts at 3B with Plouffe injured? As in, will he keep 3B eligibility for next year?

1:18
Paul Sporer: Ya I think he can get it for next year. Only needs 7 more games

1:18
Brutal: Would you rather sell high on Lamb, Myers, or Xander? 12 team roto

Was thinking Xander + Quintina for A. Diaz, K Hendricks, and a third piece

1:18
Paul Sporer: I don’t think that’s selling high at all, tbh, unless the third piece is a superstar

1:19
Jon Snow: Was offered Cameron Ruff and Michael Saunders for Willson Contreras. I see that its good value, but that means I’m starting Ruff all year– thoughts?

1:19
Paul Sporer: How many teams? Catcher sucks so bad that I’m OK starting Rupp to get Saunders

1:19
Lucy: Would you trade Moncado & Urias for K. Bryant, Odor and a pitcher?

1:19
Paul Sporer: I would

1:20
Barry Bonds: I’ve done a good job righting the Yelich ship. What else do you think he can do in the second half.

1:20
Paul Sporer: What more do you need? Maintain the 1H would be enough for me

1:21
JP: Which side: Yelich/Fulmer or Cutch/B. McCarthy? 13tm keep forever, OPS league

1:21
Paul Sporer: Side A

1:21
Bork: is Kennys Vargas for real? Kepler/Vargas sounds like a nice stack v R if he is.

1:24
Paul Sporer: I mean we’ve seen him be a big power source

1:24
Paul Sporer: so I can see him continuing to be a power guy

1:25
A-A-Ron: Better stash – Glasnow, Snell, Taillon

1:25
Paul Sporer: Snell

1:30
G Money: Outside of ages, what’s the difference between Odor and Schoop? Who has highest ceiling?

1:31
Paul Sporer: Not sure there is too much. Maybe the difference is a bit more speed for Odor

1:31
Josiah: Baez or Cozart for SS ROS? 12 team roto

1:31
Paul Sporer: Baez

1:31
Paul: RE: Austin Hedges, his 1.300 OPS and 16 HRs on the year beg to differ…but yes, it is the PCL.

1:31
Paul Sporer: You answered the question

1:31
Paul Sporer: it’s the PCL

1:32
Paul Sporer: He did it in 38 games, too

1:32
Paul Sporer: it’s about the flukiest fluke in flukesville

1:33
Maddux: Kurt Suzuki – just a hot streak or something he can sustain?

1:35
Paul Sporer: hot streak. 4249 PA of 86 OPS+

1:36
Paul D: Pineda in 2H — how does he project?

1:36
Paul Sporer: Pretty much the same. Annoyingly volatile. I don’t know what’s changed to make us believe otherwise. Talent is there. Command and consistency STILL aren’t

1:39
DETLEF Schimpf: Just a clever name or is he a serious player too (v R)? I already picked up Solarte to fill in for Carp, but Schimpf has a super low BABIP (i think it’s .184 – HRs will do that) and he looks ready to emerge as the Pads regular 2b

1:39
Paul Sporer: he hit in the minors some, too, but I prefer Solarte still

1:40
Jon Daniels: I need your help Paul, who do we need more, Andrew Miller, Luccroy or Odorizzi/Archer/Moore?

1:42
Paul Sporer: I’d say the SP or Lucroy

1:43
Guest: Paul just a reminder with the weekend (almost) upon us to please make sure you have a designated driver this time.

1:43
Paul Sporer: Grrrrrr

1:43
Ty: Wait, you’re a hip hop fan? You ever listen to Logic? Dude’s killing it right now but mainstream media doesn’t seem to care

1:43
Paul Sporer: Ya I’ve been jamming him of late. People in my Twitch stream told me about him

1:43
Scuba Steve: Creamed corn or creamed spinach?

1:43
Paul Sporer: Vom

1:43
LudeBurger Sporer: Ok, ya boi is here, Dad!

1:43
Paul Sporer: Wooooo

1:44
fresh basil: More annoying, Berman or Buck?

1:44
Paul Sporer: Berman, lol

1:44
Paul Sporer: BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK

1:44
Mick: Where do you rank A. J Pollock for 2017? Top 15 fantasy hitter seem right?

1:44
Paul Sporer: no that’s too high off a missed season

1:45
Paul Sporer: OK y’all, we’re about to wrap up here. Hopefully a nice 3-hour chat tides you over on this most awful of MLB days with ZERO gams

1:46
Nate: How many good years can Tulowitzki put up for fantasy at this point? Positional scarcity does help him but age hasn’t

1:51
Paul Sporer: ya he’s still good enough to be useful at SS, but his name value leaves him overrated

1:51
Tony: Second half ERA guess for Steven Wright?

1:51
Paul Sporer: 3.75

1:51
Alex: Do you think Corey Seager maintains this level of play ROS or is he a sneaky sell-high to someone who’s all in on the prospect hype?

1:52
Paul Sporer: i’d entertain sell high if i can really get a big deal, but .879 OPS isn’t so far out of bounds that he can’t maintain

1:53
808: bye

1:53
808: i love you

1:53
Mike: ESPN article: “The only people in the tri-state area who think the Yankees are still contenders are Hal Steinbrenner and Randy Levine.” Yikes. Do you think they see the light and sell by the deadline?

1:53
Paul Sporer: ya I think they will

1:53
Guest: License and registration, sir. Please step out of the car. How much have you had to drink tonight OMG YOU’RE TALL!

1:53
Paul Sporer: LOOOOOL

1:53
Huaneeto: Dynasty league…Dahl or Daniel Murphy?

1:54
Paul Sporer: Murph. I’m going for the wins now!

1:54
Paul Sporer: OK y’all, that’ll do it.

1:54
Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out and supporting. I had a blast as always.

We hoped you liked reading Paul Sporer Fangraphs Chat – July 14th, 2016 by Paul Sporer!

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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