Paul Sporer Fangraphs Chat – July 14th, 2016
by Paul Sporer
July 14, 2016
Chat starts around 11:00 Central!
| 11:04 |
: Early chat on the front paaaagggeeeee!!!!
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| 11:04 |
: Baseball America recently ranked Trea Turner ahead of Swanson on their mid season list. Would you agree for fantasy purposes? In a keeper would you rather have 2 years of Turner or 3 of Swanson?
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| 11:05 |
: For fantasy, I would lean toward Turner because steals are even rarer this year and that’s his game
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| 11:05 |
: Hello, friend!
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| 11:05 |
: Yo!
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| 11:05 |
: You buying Robbie Ray in the 2nd half? Solid peripherals, bad BABIP…?
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| 11:06 |
: It’s bad because he gets hammered. Has a 35% Hard contact rate every year. He’s contributing to the BABIP, imo. I think he can be better than a 4.81 ERA, but I’m not seeing a big surge coming
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| 11:06 |
: where’s Eno? FML
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| 11:06 |
: Oh.
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| 11:06 |
: Pick up Didi Gregorius and drop Baez?
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| 11:07 |
: I like Didi, but Baez has a more diverse skill set
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| 11:07 |
:
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| 11:07 |
: How would you rank Tillman, Chen and Moore RoS in a QS league?
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| 11:08 |
: Tillman, Moore, Chen. Could see Moore dealt, too
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| 11:08 |
: Any hope for Gio Gonzalez and Kazmir to turn things around ?
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| 11:08 |
: Sure, there’s some. The HR wave caught Gio, though, so that sucks.
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| 11:08 |
: I’d love some keeper advice ahead of my leagues trade deadline. What 3 would you keep in 12 tm: Salazar (17th RD), CMart (16th), Stroman (18th), Fulmer (22nd), Urias (19th)? Thanks
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| 11:08 |
: Salazar, CMart, and Fulmer, but I’d try not to keep so many SPs
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| 11:09 |
: I’m happy Albies was ranked in the top 20, I think he could be the next Altuve. Thoughts??
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| 11:09 |
: That’s a lofty tag to put on anyone. I know Eno really likes him, though
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| 11:09 |
: What do you think of Rick Porcello? Do his peripherals suggest he’s over performing or is this breakout legit?
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| 11:11 |
: Not sure it’s a really breakout. He looks the same as last year with a slightly improved HR rate. I’ve always like Porcello more than most, but I think he’s just a mid-rotation guy at this point
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| 11:11 |
: Does Berrios get recalled soon?
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| 11:11 |
: Probably should, yeah. Maybe post deadline if they flip a couple guys. Has a 2.98 ERA and 65 Ks in 66 IP since demotion
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| 11:11 |
: There better be ludes in here or else I’m reporting you
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| 11:12 |
: This is a front page chat, man. Cameron and Sullivan get all the ludes
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| 11:12 |
: I’m just lucky to be here
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| 11:12 |
: Chris Archer at home against Baltimore and at Colorado this week, or Steven Wright in Yankee stadium and with the Twins at home? You can also answer that both are too risky and I should start Ryan Dull for the week.
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| 11:13 |
: I’d give Wright a go. I think Archer is too scary.
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| 11:13 |
: Hey Paul – How would you rank these SP’s for ROS for 5×5 – Ventura, J. Ross, J. Garcia, Kennedy and Fiers? Thanks
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| 11:14 |
: think I got Garcia, Ventura, Ross (don’t forget, he’s nicked right now), Fiers, and Kennedy. You may prefer Fiers’ high floor to Ross’ higher ceiling
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| 11:14 |
: Watched your MLB The Show live stream the other night and loved it. Really regretting recently purchasing an Xbox One over the PS4. Why is the world so cruel and doesn’t allow us Xbox gamers to play MLB games???
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| 11:15 |
: Thanks so much, Steve! The Show was 100000% the reason I moved to PS4 with next-gen. I was stuck w/the weak XB360 baseball offerings all these years. So glad I switched over
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| 11:15 |
: Unfortunately, there won’t be any Show on XB1 bc Sony owns the game
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| 11:15 |
: How quickly do you think JD Mart gets back to normal when he returns? I’m out of contention in a 12 tm OPS keeper and trying to decide whether to unload him or hold and keep him in the 4th RD.
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| 11:17 |
: I think it will take a little. It is an elbow which seems like it would impact his power some. if you’re out of it, I’d see about moving him, but if the bites are weak, just hold
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| 11:17 |
: speaking of steals: out of revere, merrifield and jankowski, who swipes more bags second half?
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| 11:17 |
: Jankowski seems to have an angle on that PT over Revere so I’ll lean him, but then Revere and Merrifield
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| 11:18 |
: Trade deadline in out 12 team H2H league is fastly approaching. We get to keep 2 keepers with no type of penalties. I have kept Donaldson the past few year, but I have Betts on my team and I’m thinking about keeping him. Would you explore a trade for Donaldson and try to get something out of him (ie draft pick(s))?
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| 11:18 |
: 2 free keeps, why not Betts & JD?
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| 11:19 |
: Hey, Paul! What’s your outlook on the type of second half Justin Upton could have? Also, how confident are you that McCutchen will be able to raise his average and OBP? Thanks a lot.
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| 11:20 |
: Sup Cire. I think J Up will be better than 1H, but not quite the J Up we’re used to. He’s just fanning too much. I think Cutch puts up => .800 OPS rest of the way. Not THAT crazy from his .745, but definitely better
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| 11:20 |
: Molina, Cervelli, or Castro ROS?
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| 11:21 |
: Man C sucks this year! Cervelli.
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| 11:21 |
: Do you anticipate trades when adding deep bench flyers this time of year? If so, who are some names you’re adding?
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| 11:21 |
: I don’t. I used to, but I’ve found it too fruitless. We just don’t have as firm a hold on the possible trade market as we’d like to believe. You can speculate on some guys from the weaker times likely to be active (Oakland, Atlanta), but I wouldn’t get crazy
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| 11:22 |
: Still fire af.
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| 11:22 |
: Paul can you answer beer questions too with waves and waves of hair for the babes?
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| 11:22 |
: It’s probably hard to acquire bc it’s so awesome and rare, but I’d try to get my hands on some of those Smirnoff Ices
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| 11:22 |
: Fulmer a top 20 Dynasty SP?
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| 11:22 |
: That’s lofty
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| 11:22 |
: Impressive stats for Vince Velasquez. What to expect during the second half ?
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| 11:22 |
: An innings cap
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| 11:23 |
: Currently own both Rosenthal (also have Oh) and Ottavino in a 14 team dynasty (Saves category). Should I drop Rosenthal or is he still a hold?
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| 11:23 |
: I don’t think Oh relinquishes the role. You can cut Rosy
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| 11:23 |
: Paul, why is it ok for people to come up to guys like us and say, “wow, you’re tall! How tall are you!?” I don’t walk up to fat people and point out how obese they are or ask short people if they’re jockeys.
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| 11:24 |
: I used to do a bit on that in my stand up days
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| 11:24 |
: That is one thing that if I truly got a nickel for each time, I’d have a good bit of money
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| 11:24 |
: Will Kevin Newman’s total package make him a ML regular? The hit tool looks good so far.
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| 11:24 |
: I’m not familiar with him, sorry.
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| 11:25 |
: Ah, Pittsburgh 1st rounder who just got up to AA. I have some AA knowledge, but my bandwidth usually stops around AAA
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| 11:25 |
: Rank by saves ROS: buchter, cabrera (braves), ottavino. And it’s fine if u think all get zero..
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| 11:26 |
: I like em in your order, but I think Buchter is significantly ahead right now bc he has a line to the job in SD w/Rodney gone
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| 11:27 |
: How much do you hate it when people ask the same question repeatedly in these chats? I’m trying to gauge when it’s appropriate for me to submit another Porcello question.
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| 11:27 |
: I genuinely hate it
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| 11:27 |
: What closers are at risk of LOSING saves at the trade deadline? Allen? Besides Buchter and Dull, who do you have at the top chasing saves?
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| 11:28 |
: Rondon in Chicago and Dyson in Texas. Neither has been bad, but their teams are both sniffing around that NYY bullpen
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| 11:28 |
: Hi Paul: what do you think about stashing Chad Green for dynasty leagues? Great whiff rates with his four and two seamers and there’s no way he’ll have a HR/FB rate this bad in the future. Plus, I’m guessing Rothschild tries to get him to throw a splitter as he did with Eovaldi. Thanks!
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| 11:29 |
: Not a bad super-cheap stash at all for the reasons you outline. Love a guy who can get the whiffs. It’s a good foundation even when everything else needs work
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| 11:29 |
: Dylan bundy, do you see him start in the 2nd half?
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| 11:30 |
: I could see some starts, but I don’t see him as full time SP
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| 11:31 |
: But there’s also this: https://twitter.com/EddieInTheYard/status/731220344258854912
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| 11:31 |
: Will Trumbo collapse or keep it going in 2nd half?
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| 11:32 |
: I’ve moved away from the collapse side. I think 50 HRs is very much in play even if the AVG doesn’t hold at .288.
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| 11:32 |
: We discussed Trumbo yesterday on the pod if you’re interested in more. Eno covered some of his changes
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| 11:32 |
: Because of the Canadian anthem drama the Jays should get a free pass to the World Series and a 3-0 series lead.
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| 11:32 |
: Seems legit.
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| 11:32 |
: Danny Espinosa, Jose Ramirez, or Anthony Rendon as a replacement for Carpenter at 2B?
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| 11:33 |
: I’m still going Rendon. I see a big run at some pt in the 2H from him
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| 11:33 |
: Thoughts on Duffey and Gibson for the second half?
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| 11:33 |
: Both allow too many damn HRs to be all that successful right now
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| 11:33 |
: This is the second straight year that Jesse Winker has had wrist problems. He’s pretty risky at this point, no?
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| 11:34 |
: Yeah, especially since he was already risky just by virtue of being a prospect. Wrist problems sap power and he didn’t have a lot to give
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| 11:34 |
: Just add The Weeknd to every song at this point. He’s awesome.
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| 11:35 |
: Is this the level of production we should expect from Jake Lamb moving forward?
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| 11:36 |
: No, he’s 267 pts ahead of last year’s OPS. He’s a power beast for sure, but I’d plan for some regression and if he somehow keeps it up, then you get a nice surprise
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| 11:36 |
: I’d be careful to expect any big surprises to fully maintain their 1H performance.
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| 11:37 |
: Dang you’re tall! Did you play basketball!?!?
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| 11:37 |
: LOL
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| 11:37 |
: “Nope, horse racing was shit, though!”
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| 11:37 |
: After Giolito’s struggle in his last 2 starts (both minors and majors), will he remain in the minors until rosters expand or is Joe Ross that far away from returning?
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| 11:39 |
: I don’t think those starts impact it that much. I think they are going to be cautious with him no matter what
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| 11:39 |
: Steamer has Brandon Crawford and Brad Miller at the same level of production ROS, is it worth “losing” a trade to get Crawford?
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| 11:40 |
: Losing how?
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| 11:40 |
: Would you take a chance and keep Harvey for next season? I can keep 5 players and my other keepers are Carrasco, Harper, Cespedes and/or Freeman.
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| 11:40 |
: No, I don’t think so. The return rates from thoracic aren’t encouraging at all. I’m on the wait and see train w/Harvey now
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| 11:40 |
: Building off the don’t keep pitchers, how far above a position player would you keep the pitcher? For instance, overall, 30th ranked pitcher over the 50th ranked position player? I tend to not keep a SP unless they are super cheap and reliable ($1 top 30) or amazing stud ($10 Scherzer).
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| 11:41 |
: Ya I think you’ve pretty much got it. They need to be appreciably better or super cheap. It’s not that I’ll NEVER keep a pitcher, but I’m exhausting all of my hitter avenues first for sure
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| 11:41 |
: Andrew Miller to TEX trade rumors from a few hours have been shot down all over the place. If Miller does get moved though, no way they wouldn’t also move Chapman, right?
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| 11:41 |
: I wouldn’t say no way
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| 11:42 |
: If they come out of the break 0-5, they’re selling off
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| 11:42 |
: Any chance Yoan Moncada makes it up this year?
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| 11:43 |
: Not without injuries. He’s a beast, but he’s been in AA for 2 minutes and where would he play? I’m not sure they’d push him to the OF for an MLB debut
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| 11:43 |
: Hey Paul – are you activating Darvish for his weekend start against the Cubs? Or is this more of a see how he does and wait until next week.
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| 11:44 |
: I think I’m starting Darvish, even v. CHC
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| 11:44 |
: Paul who do you like better as a 5th outfielder type? Granderson or Kim? Granderson’s numbers in the recent RF Contact Report were brutal.
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| 11:44 |
: Curtis Granderson is the single best player and human to ever grace this fine Earth of ours
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| 11:45 |
: Kidding aside, I’d make it a needs-based thing. If I need power, Curtis; if I need AVG, Kim
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| 11:45 |
: I just traded Sonny Gray for Archer in a ten team points league. How do you see their second half going?
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| 11:46 |
: That’s a classic challenge trade. I prefer the Archer side.
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| 11:46 |
: Randal Grichuk: just a solid little run after his call-up or is there something in there to make us believe he’s taking a step forward?
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| 11:47 |
: He went down and smoked AAA, too. Thing is, he wasn’t as bad as the work before his demotion. Think they just wanted him to clear his head
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| 11:47 |
: in a 10 team mixed league, needing power and average ROS, who has a better shot Naquin or Kepler? Both are intriguing, just hoping Naquin loses playing time to Brantley when he comes back
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| 11:47 |
: I don’t trust Naquin’s newfound power, so I go Kep
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| 11:47 |
: Think Peraza has over 15 steals in the second half? Bruce should be moved… Plus BP has a busted hand and is playing through pain instead of surgery.
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| 11:48 |
: Ya I can dig that for sure
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| 11:48 |
: If Madsen is dealt, is Dull or Axford the closer
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| 11:48 |
: I think Dull gets the look
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| 11:48 |
: So if the home team supplies the bat boy for the visitor, do they just stash 29 different sets of tiny away team uniforms?
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| 11:48 |
: Oh wow, that’s a hilarious and interesting question. I really don’t know
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| 11:49 |
: Are Cody Reed and A.J. Reed on paths to value this season?
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| 11:50 |
: That really depends on league type. Cody needs to find a way to keep the damn ball in the yard, so I’d lean AJ between the two
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| 11:51 |
: What does Sonny Gray’s second half look like?
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| 11:52 |
: Upper-3.00s, low-4.00s. Can’t seem to avoid that implosion start
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| 11:52 |
: Keeper league, trade Bregman for Moncada?
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| 11:52 |
: Sure. Two of the very best prospects in the game, though so hard to go wrong
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| 11:53 |
: Do you think Corey Dickerson is starting to come around? Who would you rather have ROS Dickerson or Chris Carter?
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| 11:53 |
: I’d lean Carter
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| 11:53 |
: Any reason to expect a strong second half from Smyly, Liriano, or Corbin? My league is H2H Mixed 6×6 and those three guys have been killing me, but I haven’t been able to bring myself to cut them.
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| 11:55 |
: Liriano is a total mess, Corbin has been getting BLASTED (39% hard contact), and Smyly has been super volatile thanks to HRs. Of the 3, I prefer Smyly, but all three have enough warts to be leery. I’d go ahead and cut Corbin immediately
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| 11:55 |
: Paul need a starting pitcher: Lucas Harrell, Mike Montgomery, Luis Perdomo or Tyler Duffey?
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| 11:57 |
: Isn’t Monty just a spot starter right now? I’ll sneak tip Perdomo
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| 11:57 |
: Listened to you and Eno’s rough draft of top 5 players. No mention of Donaldson. Where does he rank? Numbers alone, he has to be above Bryant, Betts, Harper and Arenado. The guy is amazing! Give that man some love!
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| 11:59 |
: lots of candidates for that top 5 for sure. I can’t quibble w/JD love. He will be 31 next year, but that’s not old and he’s elite
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| 11:59 |
: What’s your guess for when Sanchez is going to be moved to the pen?
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| 11:59 |
: mid-August
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| 11:59 |
: Do you see Ji Man Choi doing anything beyond being a replacement quality player in Anaheim while Cron is injured?
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| 12:01 |
: Nah, not really
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| 12:01 |
: What do you think of Reddick in 12 team leagues? Does he have enough power to matter? Grichuk is on the wire, but I don’t know what to expect from him at this point.
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| 12:02 |
: I’d go Reddick over Grichuk. Reddick could be joining a new, better lineup very soon, too
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| 12:02 |
: Kyle Seager and Jake Lamb, who do I hold on to and who do I try to trade in a 12-team roto league? With Arenado as my starting third baseman and only 1 utility spot im out of room.
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| 12:02 |
: I think Lamb gets you more on the market right now
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| 12:02 |
: Hi Paul. I am curious what you think about Danny Espinosa ROS and beyond. He’s at 2.5 WAR this year, with just over half of that from defense. The projections expect his second half to be 0.6-0.8 WAR, presumably keeping the defense but giving up all of his offensive gains. Does that sound right to you?
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| 12:04 |
: I’m a little mad at him because I actually really liked him as a late round pick this year under the assumption that Baker would lean on him over Turner bc he favors vets. But when he had a .199/.297/.325 through may, I started cutting him. Grrr. Anyway, i think his proetions ROS are in line
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| 12:04 |
: projections*
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| 12:05 |
: Conforto or Benintendi ROS? What about for 2017?
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| 12:05 |
: Conforto for both. I just don’t have a read on Beni yet
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| 12:05 |
: Time to dump Blake Snell in redraft league?
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| 12:05 |
: Not yet. They could be active at the deadline and open a permanent spot for him
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| 12:05 |
: 10 team mixed, ROS for Wins and Whip, who do you like out of Wacha, Danny Duffy, Mccarthy or Porcello? just stream for fear of puking on your polo just rostering these guys all summer? Or do any stand out to you, thanks and as always, really appreciate the work you do. You and Eno should do a traveling live Bar podcast a week out of the year.
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| 12:07 |
: RE: the last idea, that’d be really fun. I’d go with Duffy of that group. Really nice upside. If he can just keep the ball in the yard a littttllleeee more…..
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| 12:07 |
: In AL-only, is either J Morneau or C Collabello worth picking up if you have nobody else by Jefry Marte to play Corner Infield?
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| 12:08 |
: I guess you can take a shot on Colabello.
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| 12:09 |
: Time to shotgun my second chicken parm sub of the day
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| 12:09 |
: LOL noyce!
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| 12:09 |
: What level tier hitter or pitcher should I be looking at in selling Fulmer?
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| 12:09 |
: As high as you can get!
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| 12:09 |
: Markets will vary. I’d go for as high of a bat as I could get
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| 12:09 |
: What are the odds that Tyson Ross bounces back when he comes off the DL? Is he a good buy-low candidate?
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| 12:10 |
: Ya I think he’s a worthy gamble, especially with wires being so thin right now
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| 12:10 |
: 10-team H2h formats. I find myself in the same scenario in two leagues, my lineups are top notch, but my starters are mostly hurt and struggling. My competitors are largely ignoring rp’s and closers, so I’m well stocked there. Is it too risky to trade off some starters to form a super team of relievers and hitters? (wins, k, saves, era, whip)
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| 12:13 |
: I’m not sure you’d take Wins w/a buncha RPs, but I’m OK going with the strategy
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| 12:14 |
: What kind of return can I get from trading Lucroy? (12 team, head-head Yahoo league)
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| 12:15 |
: These questions are impossible to answer. Every league market is completely different so I can’t even really foster a guess. I’d put him out there and see if you find a deal that suits you
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| 12:15 |
: There’s not a reason to hold on to Jung Ho Kang anymore is there? He’s been struggling mightily and a suspension is almost certainly coming soon.
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| 12:15 |
: Depends on league type
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| 12:16 |
: but ya his struggles seem to line up with the allegations he’s facing. it is still innocent until proven guilty, but it’s not going well right now
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| 12:16 |
: Could you rank these long/middle relievers and tell me which ones are worth rostering in AL-Only: Felix (Hou), Andrese (TB), Karns (Sea), Flynn (KC), Bundy (Balt).
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| 12:16 |
: Feliz, Bundy, Karns are my faves
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| 12:16 |
: Greinke for Dee Gordon – which side do you like value-wise? 10-team H2H league with standard categories; both trade partners likely to make playoffs so don’t worry about the next couple of weeks.
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| 12:17 |
: Gimme Gordon there
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| 12:17 |
: I forgot to mention my 1 keeper always is (and will be, because I friggin love him) is Kershaw. So I’d be looking at a Kershaw & Betts combo…?
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| 12:18 |
: Ohhhhh ok. Ya I’d go with those 2, but honestly Betts v. JD is a total coinflip, IMO
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| 12:18 |
: You throwing Gerrit Cole out there in his first start back?
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| 12:18 |
: I would, yes
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| 12:18 |
: Harvey was abused (although, not as bad as some in NCAA) at UNC and now he’s had all sorts of health issues. I know we can prove causation, but folks in NC refuse to acknowledge any misuse when it is done by their beloved Coach Fox (and I’m a Tar Heel). Damn shame.
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| 12:18 |
: The downside looming over most college SPs, tbh
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| 12:18 |
: If you had to spend $3000 in one of these two ways, would you spend it on a tuna sandwich a day for two straight years or pokeballs in pokemon go?
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| 12:19 |
: I don’t playe Pokemon, but that’s what I’d spend it on
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| 12:19 |
: Because otherwise, that’s entirely too much tuna
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| 12:19 |
: (you got prahnkt)
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| 12:19 |
: I’m worried about losing Kang to a suspension in the 2nd half; which SS would be a better replacement: Cozart or Gregorious? 12 tm h2h
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| 12:19 |
: Gimme Didi
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| 12:19 |
: Abreu, Pearce, Zimmerman, Mauer or Solarte at 1B in an OBP/XBH 12 team ROS?
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| 12:20 |
: I’ll still take the shot on Abreu. Love Solarte, but his value is using him elsewhere, not 1B
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| 12:20 |
: please rank Peralta, Bour (both on the DL) and Grichek.
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| 12:21 |
: Bour, Grich, Peralta (love Peralta, but his health has been sketchy all year)
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| 12:21 |
: In a K friendly points league, would you rather keep Arrieta for 1 year or M Fulmer for 3 years? Both $1
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| 12:21 |
: Still Arrieta
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| 12:21 |
: Frazier seemed to have balls start to drop going into the ASB. It’s gotta get better for him in the second half, right? Or, do you foresee the same kind of second half ineptitude that has plagued him the past two seasons?
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| 12:22 |
: Ya his batted ball profile has started to round into form in July so I expect better BABIP results as long as he’s stinging it
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| 12:22 |
: Who’s closing for the Brewers after the deadline? Jeffress? Smith? Some rando?
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| 12:23 |
: really depends who gets moved. I think Jeffress stays, so I’ll say him
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| 12:23 |
: does Maurer keep the role all year and deliver solid ratios?
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| 12:25 |
: Oh snap, Maurer news missed my radar. Thought it was still Buchter getting the role. I think Maurer holds it if he keeps the ball in the park, which he has of late: 1.98 ERA, 18 Ks in 13.7 IP w/0 HR
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| 12:26 |
: Aaron Sanchez is on fire right now, should I try to use inning cap limit to scare owner into trading him to me? AL only dynasty
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| 12:26 |
: ya if you can make it to the finish line with someone else, then you can reap the future rewards. love Sanchez
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| 12:26 |
: Sold off this season, and shooting for first ever 10 point roto season. Purchased Cobb at $1 for a keeper for next year. Thoughts?
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| 12:27 |
: I like the gamble. Always been a Cobb backer. I hope he comes back from the TJ nicely. Health always a concern w/him (even more so than normal for SPs)
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| 12:27 |
: Stroman still intriguing in deep AL-Only dynasty leagues? I just bought low.
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| 12:27 |
: Ya definitely. He has disappointed against expectations this year, but he’s still just 25
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| 12:27 |
: 16 team keeper league with deep rosters, keepable wil myers for unkeepable votto and choo? I’m in 5th where top 4 pay out
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| 12:29 |
: if you have the points to gain from that 5th spot, go ahead and get the duo but I do love Myers
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| 12:29 |
: so be honest with your possible points before pulling the trigger
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| 12:29 |
: Do you use any message boards for fantasy? If so, which ones would you recommend?
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| 12:30 |
: I don’t really get into many. This is still my hood where I lurk from time to time http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/forum.php
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| 12:30 |
: that’s where I met Collette back in ’02
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| 12:30 |
: Better than 50% that Sonny Gray gets traded? I’d be surprised if Beane let him go at much of a discount from whatever he wanted this past offseason.
|
| 12:30 |
: Nah, I’d say 50% max
|
| 12:30 |
: What even is a Sporer?
|
| 12:31 |
: Sporer – noun – a tall, lanky badass adept at being a nerd about baseball and obsessing over his awesome dog
|
| 12:31 |
: You can make fun of short people all you want. Borkwife is 4’10. It’s basically a national sport in my household to make fun of her height.
|
| 12:31 |
: Believe it or not, I dated a girl who was 4’10
|
| 12:31 |
: it didn’t last long.
|
| 12:31 |
: Oooh, also – what are you expecting from Alex Wood once he’s back?
|
| 12:32 |
: Never been a huge fan so I’m tepid on him. But he was beasting before the DL. I think the mechanics he has breed volatility so I still see him more as high-3.00s at best
|
| 12:33 |
: I’ve been excited and then sickened by the unrelenting previews and promotion for this movie. Will I go see it? Probably not. But Margot Robbie mmmm
|
| 12:34 |
: I mean, it’s DC’s big shot to get in the game as Marvel has routinely owned them. I’m really excited for it. It could be the summer blockbuster! I do think it will be her coming out party.
|
| 12:34 |
: People know her, but she’s not quite a household name yet. I think this movie does that for her
|
| 12:34 |
: PECOTA seems to think Austin Hedges is now a sure fire first ballot hall of famer. Seems fair.
|
| 12:34 |
: Dude can’t hit
|
| 12:35 |
: Would you trade Jay Bruce for Eric Hosmer? Thanks
|
| 12:35 |
: Sure! That seems fair
|
| 12:35 |
: What level are you?
|
| 12:35 |
: 0
|
| 12:35 |
: I don’t hate it or anything, I just don’t play
|
| 12:35 |
: Is it wrong of me to expect Votto to go bananas in the second half again this year? Literally ran a 211 wrC+ in 325 pa post asb last year
|
| 12:37 |
: Well ya bc the ASB has nothing to do with it. I can see him having a better 2H than 1H because he’s been getting better of late anyway
|
| 12:37 |
: Rank ROS for CI players: Castellanos, Franco, Justin Turner, VMart
|
| 12:39 |
: VMart, Franco, Turner, Casty
|
| 12:39 |
: Man, that was a solid movie. Every time I see Buchter I think of Bill the Butcher
|
| 12:39 |
: LOL
|
| 12:39 |
: Was Terry Crews batting shirtless your highlight of the all star break?
|
| 12:39 |
: No, bc he f’n K’d
|
| 12:39 |
: if you’re ripped like that, I totally get going shirtless, but you can’t then K
|
| 12:39 |
: IN SOFTBALL
|
| 12:40 |
: Trumbo was a huge sell-high candidate early on, but I wound up hanging onto him and it’s paid off big so far. Any chance he actually keeps the power up rest of the way? Or still a sell high guy?
|
| 12:40 |
: ya I was calling for sell high for sure, but I’ve toned down on that and I think he stays good enough to just hold. i think 50 HRs are on tap so the power will be enough even if AVG tanks
|
| 12:40 |
: Hi Pauleno! What can I expect from Tyler Anderson ROS? Does great stats, and no wins sound about right? Can he keep it up? Thanks man!
|
| 12:41 |
: I like what I’ve seen for sure. Coors still makes it hella volatile, though. So maybe just start him on the road
|
| 12:41 |
: To my mom! She spawned a champion
|
| 12:41 |
: Don’t make a joke about wishing her happy birthday this morning..
|
| 12:41 |
: Don’t make a joke about wishing her happy birthday this morning..
|
| 12:41 |
: Don’t make a joke about wishing her happy birthday this morning..
|
| 12:41 |
: Who has the higher offensive ceiling between Bregman and Crawford?
|
| 12:42 |
: Bregman, assuming you mean JP Crawford
|
| 12:42 |
: Hey Paul,
|
| 12:42 |
: Hi
|
| 12:42 |
: Russillo & Kanell starts in 30 min. Will you be done with this chat in time?
|
| 12:42 |
: Nope
|
| 12:42 |
: Is there video of you doing stand up out there?
|
| 12:42 |
: i don’t think so unfortunately
|
| 12:42 |
: Has Wil Myers turned some sort of corner? Is he just healthy this year (so far)? How do you value him in a keeper league, I guess?
|
| 12:42 |
: it’s health. Skills have always been really good
|
| 12:43 |
: How much is too much for a generational talent like Trout? I’m in a 12-team 5×5, keep 4 forever, and I was just offered Trout/Sale/Russell/Giles for Betts/Bogaerts/Myers/Britton. Getting Trout in a keeper league would be amazing, but I’m afraid that’s too much, particularly because I’m in 1st place and I’d be losing my three most productive hitters.
|
| 12:43 |
: ya that’s just an unnecessary for a first place team. Don’t sweat keepers rn, you have a title to win
|
| 12:43 |
: I am in a VERY deep redraft and SP is hard to come by. I offered Sano for C Archer. He came back with our Hanley. What do you think of either offer? What do you think about Archer ROS?
|
| 12:44 |
: I’d prefer to give Hanley between the 2.
|
| 12:44 |
: need your help. pls rank for me: Davies, Paxton, Peavy and Chen
|
| 12:44 |
: Paxton, Chen, Davies, open spot, me, just a hat, Peavy
|
| 12:44 |
:
|
| 12:45 |
: Once again I’m being told that E-Rod has figured out the pitch-tipping thing. Since you’re the resident expert on the matter, should I be buying in? Starting him vs. NYY? Or is this a fool me thrice scenario?
|
| 12:45 |
: Passsssss he’s gotta prove it now. Full on wait and see for me
|
| 12:45 |
: If the Cubs get Miller, who closes? Rondon has been lights out. Won’t Maddon want to use Miller before the 9th?
|
| 12:45 |
: Nah i think if they get Miller, he closes
|
| 12:45 |
: Alright I really want Betts on my dynasty. Which 2 players would be ok to offer for him? Buxton, Pollock, Springer, Polanco, Freeman…?
|
| 12:45 |
: Pollock and Buxton
|
| 12:46 |
: Will the Pirates send Josh Bell to the minors? I have him sitting on my Bn in 2 leagues and am wondering what to do with him?
|
| 12:46 |
: Really supposed to be brief https://twitter.com/Sawchik_Trib/status/751506855701217280
|
| 12:47 |
:
|
| 12:47 |
: Is now the time to trade danny salazar in a keeper league, or is he a true ace?
|
| 12:47 |
: I think he’s a true stud, but if you can really cash in, then consider it. Always a good idea to cash in on SPs
|
| 12:47 |
: I hope you’ve spent time with Chance’s other albums, especially Acid Rap, which are all stronger, IMO, than Coloring Book.
|
| 12:47 |
: I have, but I don’t agree. I like Acid Rap, but prefer Coloring Book. Ppreciate you lookin out, though!
|
| 12:47 |
: Very good 2nd half in 2015 for Collin McHugh. Same thing this year ?
|
| 12:50 |
: There’s nothing inherent about the 2H that spurs a run, though, so maybe he’s better, but not bc it’s July/Aug/Sept. Plus his ’15 had like one bad stretch: 3.23 in first 6, 6.86 in next 7, 3.12 in final 19
|
| 12:51 |
: Mchugh went 6.59 ERA in first 6, down to 3.74 in last 12
|
| 12:51 |
: If you had the roster space, would you speculatively add Betances now in case the Yankees move both Chapman and Miller?
|
| 12:53 |
: Yes, especially bc Betances does enough to be mixed lg viable even without saves
|
| 12:53 |
: Carlos Beltran for Chapman? I need bullpen help
|
| 12:53 |
: Solid deal
|
| 12:53 |
: Chapman will close even if he moves
|
| 12:53 |
: which simulation game do you prefer, baseball mogul or OOTPB?
|
| 12:53 |
: OOTP
|
| 12:53 |
: As a tall guy, if I get asked one more time by a stranger to get something off a high shelf at a store, I’m going to hurt that person.
|
| 12:53 |
: LOL, Hammer don’t hurt ’em!
|
| 12:54 |
: sorry to bring it up but how often do you get called McLovin?
|
| 12:54 |
: You’re not sorry, though
|
| 12:56 |
: The movie is nearly a decade old at this point. I think my new glasses curb some of the lookalike-ness
|
| 12:56 |
: In a keep forever league, trade buxton, Bergman, and Carlos Martinez for betts?
|
| 12:56 |
: Ya I’m OK with that
|
| 12:59 |
: Do you think Nola gets back on track in the 2nd half?
|
| 12:59 |
: Ya I think he irons it out some
|
| 12:59 |
: In a dynasty league traded Naquin and Wong for half season of Cole Hamels. Felt like Naquin due for regression and I needed solid SP. Thoughts?
|
| 1:00 |
: Ya I like that!
|
| 1:00 |
: When is it time to start thinking about stashing Moncada in a 12 team keep 10 forever league?
|
| 1:00 |
: 2017
|
| 1:00 |
: I’m not sure he’s a top 120 keep going into ’17 already
|
| 1:00 |
: Have held on to Dee Gordon the entire span of the suspension, but now looking to move him in a H2H (5×5) league. What sort of SP return can I expect to get back? Has his value been hurt at all?
|
| 1:00 |
: Probably has been hurt. Impossible to answer what you’ll get, bc it’s what your market will bear
|
| 1:01 |
: How much longer am I starting games until? And what is a reasonable package that I can get traded for in a keeper league?
|
| 1:01 |
: i’d say mid-August
|
| 1:01 |
: Thinking about dealing my Correa for a pitcher in a 10 team h2h points league. I know you dont like the “who should I get” Qs, but would an SP in the Gerrit Cole range be ok? Or shoot better, healthier?
|
| 1:01 |
: Ya I like when you throw a name. I’d say shoot healthier for Correa.
|
| 1:01 |
: Thoughts on Devon Travis? Would he be preferable to Rendon?
|
| 1:02 |
: I prefer Rendon, but it’s close enough that a Travis argument exists. i’m starting to buy his power a bit more
|
| 1:03 |
: Hi Paul. Thanks for all the chattery. Wondering about Kevin Kiermaier’s return to TB. You think he’ll get steady ABs? Will he be good at baseball, by which I mean relative to other major leaguers, not to you or me?
|
| 1:06 |
: He will definitely get playing time. I think he will be OK, but he wasn’t THAT great before the injury from a triple slash standpoint
|
| 1:06 |
: What is the playing time situation upon the return of Dee Gordon?
|
| 1:06 |
: He will definitely play. they will figure it out with Dietrich
|
| 1:06 |
: but Dietrich takes the hit initially
|
| 1:06 |
: When are Benintendi and Bregman coming up? Worth rostering both of them for rest of the year even if I’m in the hunt (deep keeper league)?
|
| 1:07 |
: No idea. I wouldn’t roster both.
|
| 1:08 |
: Picked up Victor Robles- love his game as many scouts have raved about him. Thoughts?
|
| 1:09 |
: Huge prospect, but a loooong way out
|
| 1:09 |
: What needs replacing more? O.co or the Trop?
|
| 1:09 |
: Trop
|
| 1:09 |
: Ken Giles back as Astros’ closer in 2H?
|
| 1:10 |
: He has the skills, but Will Harris would have to falter
|
| 1:11 |
: I just traded Castellanos for Polanco. How’d I do ROS?
|
| 1:11 |
: Strong, great work
|
| 1:11 |
: What’s up with Byron Buxton.. long-term, does he figure it out or are there too many flaws in his offensive game?
|
| 1:12 |
: It’s too early to say he’s cooked, but this isn’t a nothing of sample size of nothingness. Eno has suggested a Cam Maybin path
|
| 1:12 |
: why are the NYM seemingly hell-bent on keeping herrera in the minors?
|
| 1:12 |
: He’s 22 and not exactly smashing AAA
|
| 1:12 |
: What the heck do I do with Rich Hill in a 14 team forever keeper? I just have no idea how to value him.
|
| 1:13 |
: I think you just ride it out, it’s not like he cost a lot
|
| 1:13 |
: Would you trade Chris Davis for Felix? I use Chris Davis at UTIL and have V-Mart, Kendrys, Puig, Carlos Gomez on my bench that I can plug in. 10 team Points league
|
| 1:14 |
: I feel like Davis should bring a better arm than a hobbled Felix
|
| 1:15 |
: Pollock or Buxton in dynasty format?
|
| 1:15 |
: Pollock
|
| 1:15 |
: What do I with Danny Valencia?
|
| 1:15 |
: Just ride it out. He didnt’ cost anything
|
| 1:15 |
: I own Bauer ($1) and Taijuan ($6) are both good keeper options? Or should I look elsewhere?
|
| 1:16 |
: Depends on league size. Neither is an automatic amazing keeper, but they’re fair enough to keep
|
| 1:16 |
: Does Rajai Davis stay fantasy relevant? How many runs do you think he ends up scoring?
|
| 1:17 |
: he’s never not been fantasy relevant given his speed so I think he stays relevant, yes
|
| 1:17 |
: Tanaka ROS?!
|
| 1:17 |
: I think he will keep pitching
|
| 1:17 |
: Chances Sano gets starts at 3B with Plouffe injured? As in, will he keep 3B eligibility for next year?
|
| 1:18 |
: Ya I think he can get it for next year. Only needs 7 more games
|
| 1:18 |
: Would you rather sell high on Lamb, Myers, or Xander? 12 team roto
Was thinking Xander + Quintina for A. Diaz, K Hendricks, and a third piece |
| 1:18 |
: I don’t think that’s selling high at all, tbh, unless the third piece is a superstar
|
| 1:19 |
: Was offered Cameron Ruff and Michael Saunders for Willson Contreras. I see that its good value, but that means I’m starting Ruff all year– thoughts?
|
| 1:19 |
: How many teams? Catcher sucks so bad that I’m OK starting Rupp to get Saunders
|
| 1:19 |
: Would you trade Moncado & Urias for K. Bryant, Odor and a pitcher?
|
| 1:19 |
: I would
|
| 1:20 |
: I’ve done a good job righting the Yelich ship. What else do you think he can do in the second half.
|
| 1:20 |
: What more do you need? Maintain the 1H would be enough for me
|
| 1:21 |
: Which side: Yelich/Fulmer or Cutch/B. McCarthy? 13tm keep forever, OPS league
|
| 1:21 |
: Side A
|
| 1:21 |
: is Kennys Vargas for real? Kepler/Vargas sounds like a nice stack v R if he is.
|
| 1:24 |
: I mean we’ve seen him be a big power source
|
| 1:24 |
: so I can see him continuing to be a power guy
|
| 1:25 |
: Better stash – Glasnow, Snell, Taillon
|
| 1:25 |
: Snell
|
| 1:30 |
: Outside of ages, what’s the difference between Odor and Schoop? Who has highest ceiling?
|
| 1:31 |
: Not sure there is too much. Maybe the difference is a bit more speed for Odor
|
| 1:31 |
: Baez or Cozart for SS ROS? 12 team roto
|
| 1:31 |
: Baez
|
| 1:31 |
: RE: Austin Hedges, his 1.300 OPS and 16 HRs on the year beg to differ…but yes, it is the PCL.
|
| 1:31 |
: You answered the question
|
| 1:31 |
: it’s the PCL
|
| 1:32 |
: He did it in 38 games, too
|
| 1:32 |
: it’s about the flukiest fluke in flukesville
|
| 1:33 |
: Kurt Suzuki – just a hot streak or something he can sustain?
|
| 1:35 |
: hot streak. 4249 PA of 86 OPS+
|
| 1:36 |
: Pineda in 2H — how does he project?
|
| 1:36 |
: Pretty much the same. Annoyingly volatile. I don’t know what’s changed to make us believe otherwise. Talent is there. Command and consistency STILL aren’t
|
| 1:39 |
: Just a clever name or is he a serious player too (v R)? I already picked up Solarte to fill in for Carp, but Schimpf has a super low BABIP (i think it’s .184 – HRs will do that) and he looks ready to emerge as the Pads regular 2b
|
| 1:39 |
: he hit in the minors some, too, but I prefer Solarte still
|
| 1:40 |
: I need your help Paul, who do we need more, Andrew Miller, Luccroy or Odorizzi/Archer/Moore?
|
| 1:42 |
: I’d say the SP or Lucroy
|
| 1:43 |
: Paul just a reminder with the weekend (almost) upon us to please make sure you have a designated driver this time.
|
| 1:43 |
: Grrrrrr
|
| 1:43 |
: Wait, you’re a hip hop fan? You ever listen to Logic? Dude’s killing it right now but mainstream media doesn’t seem to care
|
| 1:43 |
: Ya I’ve been jamming him of late. People in my Twitch stream told me about him
|
| 1:43 |
: Creamed corn or creamed spinach?
|
| 1:43 |
: Vom
|
| 1:43 |
: Ok, ya boi is here, Dad!
|
| 1:43 |
: Wooooo
|
| 1:44 |
: More annoying, Berman or Buck?
|
| 1:44 |
: Berman, lol
|
| 1:44 |
: BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK
|
| 1:44 |
: Where do you rank A. J Pollock for 2017? Top 15 fantasy hitter seem right?
|
| 1:44 |
: no that’s too high off a missed season
|
| 1:45 |
: OK y’all, we’re about to wrap up here. Hopefully a nice 3-hour chat tides you over on this most awful of MLB days with ZERO gams
|
| 1:46 |
: How many good years can Tulowitzki put up for fantasy at this point? Positional scarcity does help him but age hasn’t
|
| 1:51 |
: ya he’s still good enough to be useful at SS, but his name value leaves him overrated
|
| 1:51 |
: Second half ERA guess for Steven Wright?
|
| 1:51 |
: 3.75
|
| 1:51 |
: Do you think Corey Seager maintains this level of play ROS or is he a sneaky sell-high to someone who’s all in on the prospect hype?
|
| 1:52 |
: i’d entertain sell high if i can really get a big deal, but .879 OPS isn’t so far out of bounds that he can’t maintain
|
| 1:53 |
: bye
|
| 1:53 |
: i love you
|
| 1:53 |
: ESPN article: “The only people in the tri-state area who think the Yankees are still contenders are Hal Steinbrenner and Randy Levine.” Yikes. Do you think they see the light and sell by the deadline?
|
| 1:53 |
: ya I think they will
|
| 1:53 |
: License and registration, sir. Please step out of the car. How much have you had to drink tonight OMG YOU’RE TALL!
|
| 1:53 |
: LOOOOOL
|
| 1:53 |
: Dynasty league…Dahl or Daniel Murphy?
|
| 1:54 |
: Murph. I’m going for the wins now!
|
| 1:54 |
: OK y’all, that’ll do it.
|
| 1:54 |
: Thanks so much for coming out and supporting. I had a blast as always.
|