Paul Sporer Chat – 2/3/21

Paul Sporer: Chat time!! My latest SP ranks are live so feel free to ask any questions about them: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2021-starting-pitcher-ranks-january/

Greg: In a keep forever – Should I give up Albies to get Pearson and Cronenworth?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s a pretty interesting deal. I’m a huge fan of Albies and Cronenworth. Pearson obviously has major upside that could start paying out this year. It’s a fair deal, I’m open to doing it!

I am the Walrus: With the Wong signing, does Huira get regular PT at 1B?  Also do you like his chances for a bounce back year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah it looks like Hiura should move to the primary 1B. That’s what we have on Roster Resource. I had some concerns about him coming into ’20 that played out (BABIP & Ks) to an even bigger degree than I even thought. I think he rebounds, but I’m worried he’s still a bit overdrafted.

Bobby Bonilla Retirement Plan: Need to pick an OF: Dozier, Calhoun, Berti, Hampson?

Paul Sporer: If there aren’t specific needs, think I’d go Calhoun. Obviously, if you need speed, I’d lean toward the latter two

Callups: I am going all in on an Astros-style tank job in my dynasty league. What positions would you focus on acquiring players first and what would you save for last?

Paul Sporer: Run it like a real time and focus up the middle. Guys will move down the defensive spectrum as they age and then you can fill in. I’d save 1B, RP, C, and SP for last. C is up the middle and where the “follow a real life team” veers a bit, but otherwise stock up on SS, 2B, CF, 3B.

Nick: Justin Masterson recently released his own top SP rankings.  Which starters do you guys disagree most on?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t know Justin Masterson was doing rankings

Quarantino Martinez: Can the Rays Make Archer Great Again? Is it just: remember how you were excellent before we traded you? Just do that again!

Paul Sporer: With health, I think he can get back into the low-4.00s with a buncha strikeouts

Nolan: Who closes in Boston this year?

Paul Sporer: I think Ottavino

Daro: Who do you prefer Bohm or Luzardo? Trying to decide on my last keeper

Paul Sporer: Bohm. When it’s essentially even, gimme the hitter

Johnny: Projection for MacKenzie Gore playing time?

Paul Sporer: I’d say about 40 IP at the big league level

Schilling and Pence: Eloy–forward progress, more of the same, or regression?

Paul Sporer: I think he regresses a bit off the 140 wRC+ of ’20, but still elite in the 125-130 range for a full season

Steve: With Wong signing it seems like it is Urias’ job at 3B to lose. Do you agree with that and do you think we see him become a league average hitter in 2021?

Paul Sporer: I still have some hopes for Luis Urias. He needs to make more consistent contact to drive a breakout and then I could see a double/double (10+ HR/SB)

Nolan: Have you heard whether JD Martinez or Javier Baez did anything in the offseason to address the changed rules for in-game video access that may have caused their 2020 struggles?  I’d like to know that before drafting either one.

Paul Sporer: I have not, no. I know it was a big issue for them and others and I don’t think anything is set to change so yeah they’ll have to adjust or risk similar issues in ’21

chaco chicken: Which MLB teams seem most likely to let their pitchers start and go 6+ in quality start leagues?

Paul Sporer: Washington, Cleveland, Houston, White Sox and some Mets off the top of my head

Guest: is there at least a 10% probability that Nola finishes as the #2 catcher in fantasy this year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah definitely. It’s a late breakout, but I really believe in his hitting

Johnny: I like how you have Taillon and Kluber side by side. Who has the larger variance in possible performance this year?

Paul Sporer: Kluber because his upside is getting back to a Cy Young candidate

Guest: Favorite late round pitching target?

Paul Sporer: Taijuan Walker, Chad Kuhl

Guest: Kyle Lewis falling too far in drafts? I mean, yeah we all know about the issues but it seems for a 3rd/4th OF with upside it’d be worth at least a flier at that price, right?

Paul Sporer: His 136 ADP feels pretty fair with some room for upside if he goes off. He’s probably more often your #2 OF, but I’m definitely OK w/that

ScottTINSTAAPP: Homie! Saw your latest rankings, any reason why you’re a bit lower on Nola than the market (15 vs. 8th pitcher by ADP)?

Paul Sporer: I’m not against him or anything, but I guess I’m looking a bit more closely at his 2019. He can headline a rotation for sure, but I’m not quite willing to take him as a top 10 SP

Smoke Em If You Got Em: Think Mancini can get back to 2019 levels?

Paul Sporer: Just really depends on his health and how his stamina holds up after thwarting the colon cancer. I certainly hope so bc he’s a badass, but there’s some wait and see

Gabagool: Rest of career – Devers or Bichette?

Paul Sporer: I lean Devers. I’m not convinced Bichette is a true base stealer so I prefer Devers’ hitting

bobsyouruncle: Ramos get back to hitting RHP?  Also why isn’t Tanner Scott not getting more love as potential closer in BAL?

Paul Sporer: Wilson Ramos? Yeah he’s going to play quite a bit. As for Scott, most are leaning toward Hunter Harvey getting the job, but there are no guarantees so Scott could finagle his way in. He is their primary lefty so they might not wanna slot him in the 9th, but the wide openness of saves makes Scott a worthy gamble

Mike: Do you the Orioles call up Rutschman this year or let him work on his defense for a couple weeks to start 2022 before bringing him up?

Paul Sporer: If he just rakes in the minors, he’ll get some MLB burn this year

Young Arms: Paul, thanks for the updated SP rankings, much appreciated!  You have McKenzie>Skubal>Howard>Patino, with each in a different tier.  Is that how you roughly see them in terms of longer term SP value?  Playing in a keeper league, wondering how the longer term outlook might seem to you.  Thanks

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s pretty much my long term outlook for that quartet. I love McKenzie’s talent plus the fact that Cleveland does so well developing arms

Mike: Who could the Blue Jays realistically add to put them over the Rays and Yankees at this point?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure there’s a single player they could get… at least not one they’re realistically looking at. I guess Trevor Bauer would move the needle quite a bit

TNSTAAPP: I have three pitching prospects in my dynasty league. Who has the most promise out of Pearson, Skubal, and Manning?

Paul Sporer: I like Manning the best of the three

Chucky: Is Carter Kieboom just another Jurickson Profar?

Paul Sporer: We need more than 165 PA before going down that path and it hasn’t been devastating injury the way it was with Profar.

Leody: How likely do you think it is that Leody Taveras can be a league average or better hitter?  How likely is the DeShields signing to mean greatly reduced PT or even more minor league seasoning for Leody this coming season?

Paul Sporer: Huuuuuge Leody fan! The Dentist gives them someone to turn to if Taveras isn’t ready, but I don’t think DeShields is set to takeover CF and push Taveras back to the minors.

Alex Bertland: In a long-term keeper simulation league (or just in terms of the talent of the player), would you rather have Luis Patino, Jazz Chisholm or Leody Taveras?

Paul Sporer: Leodyyyy!

Marc:

How do you feel about Cristian Javier for 2021 and long term? Javier + what type of value should I Ask for to trade Ryu?

Paul Sporer: Dig Javier and think he’s priced nicely in current drafts. Hard to say what you could get in trade as that just varies manager to manager. I feel like Javier + Gonsolin or Means or Civale (something in that range) could be had for Ryu assuming your trade partner value Ryu as the stud he is

Hopeless Fans: More wins: Dodgers or Rockies+Pirates

Paul Sporer: Oof… I want to say Dodgers, but I’ll go w/the pair of teams. I think they at least get 110.

Guest: By WAR, Jo Adell was the worst player in baseball last year.  Is he at least rosterable in a 12-team mixed league this year?

Paul Sporer: He might not start the season in the majors so I wouldn’t be eager to draft him in 12-teamers. I’d want at least 5 reserve spots, but even that is a little tight to go for him in shallower leagues

Pat G: In a keep forever, would you trade Rutschman and Lux for Woodruff and Voit?

Paul Sporer: As long as I’m in a competition window right now

Fighting Bob LaFollette: In 1972, Steve Carlton started 41 games and threw 346 IP.

Paul Sporer: That’s wild

Guest: If the Dodgers don’t bring back Turner, is Edwin Rios a viable fantasy asset?

Paul Sporer: I’d be really surprised if they didn’t bring Turner back, but yes, in his absence I’d turn my attention to Rios for sure

Guest: Gavin Lux and Daz Cameron turned in a 63 and 67 wRC+, respectively, last year.  Whom do you like better for next year?

Paul Sporer: Think Cam has a better shot at playing time for ’21 specifically

Guest: Dynasty roto.  Winker for Bundy?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Wink

Sean: Would you rather keep Aaron Nola as a 7th-round pick? Or Corbin Burnes as a 16th?

Paul Sporer: Burnes 9 rds later

Chucky: Care to enter in on the Kyle Lewis debate? Is he Pat Listach or….2020 ROY Kyle Lewis?

Paul Sporer: He’s better than Pat Listach, IMO. He’d have been a MEGA prospect if not for a bevy of injuries so there’s a shit ton of talent here

Guest: Wondering about surplus value: If Player A has a salary of $30 and projects to be worth $40, and Player B has a $10 salary but projects to be worth $20, should we think of them as equal as far as surplus value is concerned, or is is still better to get the better player regardless

Paul Sporer: It’s still the better player bc the $30 guy putting $40 of stats is much more impactful

Ricky: Thoughts on Biggio in an OBP league? Where would you take him in a 10-team keeper league?

Paul Sporer: That’s his wheelhouse and I’d take him in the top 50 of an OBP league

Apocolcyntosis de Puig: 12 team mixed, OBP, 4OF, auction, who do you like Pham vs. Buxton vs. Winkler in the $2-$5 range?

Paul Sporer: Sorry got a phone call there. The OBP changes it up but I think I’m still leaning Buxton. The power/speed combo is too strong

I am the Walrus: Is it worth say $5 for Robles?  And do you think he can get to 75/18/65/.259/20-25 SB this year?

Paul Sporer: Yes I’m willing to drop $5 on him for one more run that he can be a stud

kdizzle: Who’s the best investment:  Yordan, Alonso, Wander, Bohm?

Paul Sporer: Kinda depends on league, but I’d say Wander or Bohm

Bob: Thoughts on Cronenworth

Paul Sporer: Mega fan: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/rake-cronenworths-star-turn/ | https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/out-of-nowhere-all-stars-hitters/ | https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-next-top-75-hitters/

Izzy: Do the Rockies move Story before the season starts?

Paul Sporer: I doubt it, but hit’d be dope if they just bottomed out and trade Story, Marquez, and Gray. Let’s get one of the arms on TOR and another on LAA!

Georgie: Evan White or Bobby Dalbec for 2021?

Paul Sporer: Gimme White. He’s compleeeeeeeeeeetely forgotten for ’21

I am the Walrus: Need cheap steals.  Who’s a couple mid and late round SB guys?

Paul Sporer: Myles Straw, Cedric Mullins, Manuel Margot, Jon Berti, Lorenzo Cain, Oscar Mercado, and Sam Hilliard

Lunch Angle: ZiPS has Willians Astudillo projected to be the 5th best hitting catcher in baseball. Do you think he’ll get any playing time or will he be thoroughly blocked by Garver and Jeffers?

Paul Sporer: He’s pretty blocked off. Think he can get 250-300 PA, but it’s hard to see more right now

kdizzle: Keeper deadline!  Keep Frie, Luis Castillo, or Urias?  Is Fried this good?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Castillo – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2021-starting-pitcher-ranks-january/ | Fried is very good, but Castillo is better

Big Tuna: Are you a Tyler Mahle believer? I know I’ve seen him as high as late-30s in some rankings

Paul Sporer: I consider myself a fan, but I don’t have him late-30s, that’s for sure. I’ve got him 51 and will gladly roster him in that range

Buff: The last thing Jeff Zimmerman said on his most recent chat was that some middle relievers could be more valuable than some starters and that “hitting on the right ones could win championships.” Do you agree? If not, why not? If so, what would the right ones look like? Examples?

Paul Sporer: He’s definitely right, but finding the right ones is the tough part. Ideally, you’re finding the NEXT Devin Williams, not paying the premium for Williams himself

Paul Sporer: Actually used to write about MRs years ago – https://paulsporer.com/2011/03/24/2011-guide-to-middle-reliever-method…

The Final Boss: Kike sneaky flier if the Sox give him full time ABs?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. I think he gets the bulk of the 2B PA and then can bounce around otherwise

Gabagool: Best career of any player that debuted in the majors last year?

Paul Sporer: Ke’Bryan Hayes!

Risk v Reward: Would you trade a combined $16 Sonny G & Gallen for $36 DeGrom?

Paul Sporer: That’s pretty fair. If it’s a shallower league, I really like consolidating, but if it’s 15 teams or NL Only, I’d hold my two arms

Big Tuna: Does your Julio Urias ranking imply that you’re not worried about the Dodgers messing around with innings?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think the reins come off a good bit this year

kjl: Clarke Schmidt – surprised youre not a little higher on him, more about skill or PT.

Paul Sporer: Just PT right now. I’m not really drafting him right now and will assess as the seasons goes

Roy Hobbs: What are your thoughts on Mitch Keller for this coming season?  I feel like he has a lot to prove and he has a ton of potential and should be the top pitcher in Pittsburgh now, for what that is worth.  Thank you for the chats.

Paul Sporer: Decent bit of upside and a perfectly fair price tag to jump in. I think there’s a strikeout per inning with a low-4.00s and decent WHIP

Chucky: Am I over-valuing Devin Williams in a Saves and Holds separate cat league as well as appearances? Can he be Josh Hader +…?

Paul Sporer: Depends where you’re valuing him, of course, but yes he can be a Hader type for sure

Greg: How do you think poorer teams (like Cubs, Indians) can find good market inefficiencies to stay competitive in the longer term with teams that spend a lot?

Paul Sporer: Well the Cubs aren’t poor in any way, shape, or form, so don’t buy into that horseshit. I do think this market is ripe to find bargains for teams of all budgets, but the Cubs are super super super rich and full of complete shit for pretending they can’t afford to keep their team

I am the Walrus: I’ve looked over some draft history and found more SP busts in the $20 range.  It seems it’s best to pay for the Degroom/Coles and then skip right to the teens and Nola/Gallen or maybe 2 in this tier and skip the $30-40 all together.  Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: That is correct. There’s been some research the last couple years finding the same. The 2nd and 3rd tiers of SPs are the worst investments overall.

Jason: trying to decide on last 2 keepers in a 12-team 10×10 H2H dynasty keeper league. I’m a rebuilding squad. Pick 2 from: Profar, Dunning, Montgomery, Hilliard

Paul Sporer: Monty and Hilliard for me

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today (https://twitch.tv/sporer) and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!