Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 29th, 2021

Final chat of the regular season!

1:02

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! The regular season finale of my weekly chat starts now!! (FYI, chats will continue in the offseason but there will be missed weeks here & there especially around holidays of course)

1:02

Noob: You think Trout’s recent injury woes impacts his value at all?

1:03

Paul Sporer: He will go cheaper in the mocks that are happening now and in the coming month or two. I think it’ll start to push back up as Spring starts and he looks healthy (assuming he does, of course)

1:04

Justin: Who are you picking for more saves through Sunday- steck or kittredge?

1:04

Paul Sporer: I’d pick Steck but we’re prob talking about a save difference at this juncture

1:05

MLBTOPDX: Dipoto and the Mariners what a success, coupled with there very strong farm system don’t ya think writers should stop knocking them off? The Will Make the Playoffs jus watch

1:06

Paul Sporer: Paying attention to the data that often indicates success (namely run differential in the case of the Mariners) isn’t attacking them. It’s about being honest and trying to predict what will happen. They’ve stuck around all year and it’d be cool to see them in the playoffs, but it wasn’t out of pocket to be honest about their chances. Or about the fact that the Graveman trade was a good decision even if the optics of WHEN it happened rubbed ppl the wrong way.

1:06

Ryan: Please recommend your 3 top <50% streamers for the weekend

1:07

Paul Sporer: Doing a daily SP chart! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/sp-chart wouldn’t want to guess at weekend starters at this pt anyway bc so much can change

1:09

Justin: are you rolling luis garcia out tonight vs TB if you are protecting ratios?

1:10

Paul Sporer: I’d prooobably still throw him, but if it’s really dicey on your ratios, maybe it’s an aces-only kinda deal

1:10

Justin: impossible to predict the rays ways but do you see mclanahan and/ or baz getting starts this weekend?

1:14

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised if either got full on starts

1:14

MLBTOPDX: Didn’t Rub me the wrong way, it was brilliant. Toro was wasting in Houston. Again, stop writing them off. Sometimes numbers don’t mean shit in the thick of things. So some respect where it’s deserved and they Dam well deserve it. You all knock the 2007 Dbacks for making it that year. Seriously sometimes numbers don’t tell ya the whole story. The world isn’t all Relative

1:15

Paul Sporer: Yeah I just don’t understand the complaint here, I guess. The numbers are the numbers. M’s fans taking it personally doesn’t change them

1:19

Chuck: Any guys going into next year looking good for a buy-low. I’m thinking Pablo Lopez, Chris Sale

1:20

Paul Sporer: Injury arms can be a ripe avenue for this. Throw in Thor & Verlander, too. These guys are especially buyable in early drafts. As the offseason wears on and their picture becomes clearer, they start to push up

1:20

Yants: Congrats on your Razz showing. How would you rate your fantasy season results on a 0-100 scale, 100 being an A+?

1:23

Paul Sporer: Thank you! Wish I could’ve brought it home, but 2nd feels good, too!! If I can finish off the Main Event win, I can’t really say anything other than 100. But there’s a lot of work to be done there:

1:23

Salty: Trying to battle it out in my HQ league for a free forecaster – will you be writing up a bunch of the player blurbs again next year?

1:23

Paul Sporer: I will! About to get started on those very soon, actually!

1:23

Salty: If you sign up for an NFBC ME league and find out that Phil D is in your league, can you ask for a refund?

1:24

Paul Sporer: That HAS to be in their terms and conditions, looool

1:26

MLBTOPDX: That Numbers don’t mean crap sometimes is the point. Life is all e=mc2 as in everything isn’t all relative in the numerology world. Plus if you look at Sept stats and base numbers off of that they would have em. Just because a negative run differential is unique doesn’t mean the numbers weren’t telling ya things. Like France and Toro and Bullpen. Flexen. Almost like a youthful Giants squad. Again the point is that Numbers can lie

1:28

Paul Sporer: I just don’t understand what pt you’re trying to make. The numbers didn’t lie. They don’t have emotions. They are what they are based on the inputs. Things run counter to the highest probability from the numbers alll the time. Seattle isn’t unique in any way, shape, or form… they’re also not in the playoffs yet

1:28

Justin: re: weekend starters and their uncertainty- are you just browsing beat writers in hopes of getting updates at any given time? hard to plan with a limited number of acquisitions left in a h2h match up

1:28

Paul Sporer: Yeah, just ear to ground trying to get as much useful info as possible & making our best guesses

1:28

Jung Bong Jovi: Hey Paul, thanks for all of your help this year.  Playing for fifth place in my dynasty after taking home the title last year (boooo).  Knocked off the #1 seed in the playoffs last week in my other league, so one title could still happen.

Enough of my rambling.  Now get some pizza!

1:29

Paul Sporer: Thanks for the kind words. Glad you were able to find some upside in the 5th place finish. Take some lessons from it and back on the winning ways next year!

1:29

erk: Thoughts on Berrios sp ranking next year? Do you buy his improved consistency and slight improvement in results?

1:32

Paul Sporer: I’ve always been a big Berrios fan and felt like he could be more if the volatility was toned down. Only 2 starts over 4 ER this year has been huge (5 in ’19, 7 in ’18… 1 last yr, but it was 2 mos., nothing to be gleaned from the 2 month “season”). I’ll be in on him next year as a strong #2 or a useful #1 if you wait a bit on SP

1:32

Stubby Clapp: Who knew that Jerry DiPoto attended your chats??

1:33

Paul Sporer: I’d actually feel like DiPoto wouldn’t argue the playoff odds thing so vigorously. He likely understands what goes into them and what they’re trying to say. I was an ardent defender of the Graveman deal, especially once the dust settled on the entire deadline.

1:33

chilly: Nick Gordons season stats project out to 12/30.  U think he could realistically hit that over a full season?  ev 91 and hard hit% looks great for a hitter w his profile.

1:37

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think so. Age-26 could bring a nice peak season for fantasy, espec. w/the speed. He should get full burn as a super-utility, too, as he can play IF and OF

1:37

Broken Bat: Who would rather have in 2022 for same salary, Detmers of Halos or Ashby of Brewers ir Houck of RedSox? Rank.

1:41

Paul Sporer: Ooh, interesting group. Houck-Detmers-Ashby off the top of my head with legit interest in all 3 espec. in deeper formats. I’m eager to deep-dive on these three and the many other arms in this tier of pitcher. This is where you can find major gems on the cheap

1:41

chilly: to me rasmussens peripherals make his performance this yr legit.  do you see continued growth here next yr?

1:43

Paul Sporer: In fact, Rasmussen is probably in this group as well. The lack of reliable third pitch gives me some pause that he can expand beyond this 5-and-dive kinda role, but let’s see if TB can help him cultivate a true third

1:43

freefall: is there a name for this  free-falling feeling on this first day after final lineup choices? yesterday I had so many questions for you, today nothing matters anymore. thanks for you wisdom and camraderie through the season and may the results go your way in the days ahead.

1:44

Paul Sporer: Panicked excitement? It’s out of our hands now, the players have to do their thing for us. it’s nerve-wracking. I was sweating every pitch from Waino, Webb, and Urquidy last night. Running it back again tonight w/Montas & Max. It might actually be good that I’m occupied this weekend (ACL concert festival here in Austin) so I’m not just living & dying over every single pitch pertaining to my players!

1:45

Clown Question Bro: Hey Paul, I know you’re beating yourself up and taking the L on your podcasts for your speculation that Louis Garcia would cede the second half SP role to Christian Javier, but the whole time you were saying this, they had similar IP totals with Garcia only being about 10-12 IP ahead at any given time. Did you take that into consideration?

1:47

Paul Sporer: Both actually hit a wall a bit in September, but I’m still so surprised that they didn’t switch their roles at any pt. I wasn’t as strident Kopech in for Cease, but also felt somewhat strongly about that, too.

1:48

Big Joey: What are you expectations for Verlander next year? 200 IP   🙂

1:49

Paul Sporer: He’s a freak so I won’t rule it out!! But I’ll have him down for something like 170 or so

1:49

Apocolocyntosis de Santana: Matt Olson, Jesse Winker, Marcus Semien, Cedric Mullens, and Mitch Haniger all had career years. Who do you think peaked and will regress, and who do you think has genuinely made the jump to the next level?

1:55

Paul Sporer: Matty O is definitely my firmest belief that he can hold a lot of these gains w/the K%. Winker’s AVG was the only real change as he still only played 110 gms and can’t hit vL. I think he can maintain this level, but he’ll remain maddening w/the health. Mullins at 30-30 is probably a peak, but I think there’s a sturdy enough floor to take him in the late 1st/early 2nd.

We thought ’19 was Semien’s peak and he said hold my beer, but I’m still going to say this yr is the peak. But again, I’ll buy the regressed version as I think he will still be v good. Haniger stayed healthy which I think a lot of ppl believed was all he needed to pop off. IF he can stay healthy, I don’t see a major fall-off, tbh.

1:55

Salty: Poor Tyler Jung – guy’s rocking two top 10 ME teams, and he hears crickets thanks to Phil’s incredible season.  Congrats to you, Paul and good luck these final few days.  It can’t be easy putting some strong opinions out there knowing you’ll get killed if they go south, so it’s good to see you getting success when they hit.

1:56

Paul Sporer: He also has the 19th tm!!! Just a brilliant season from him, but ya it has unfortunately been overshadowed by Phil in terms of mainstream hype. I think Tyler can comfort himself w/the stacks of cash he’s about to earn!

1:59

Paul Sporer: Also, thank you for the well wishes. It’s going to be a lot of fun and I really hope I can hang on

1:59

Big Joey: Albies has had a very nice season, basically 30-20, but only a 106wRC+, why is that so low? Is he basically the second coming of Brandon Phillips? Are we witnessing peak-Albies?

2:02

Paul Sporer: That’s a sharp comp that has some viability to it. I think Albies will still have a strong camp of detractors just as Phillips always seemed to, but I love Albies and think he can maintain these counting category outputs while pushing his AVG back up (.257 this yr w/a .273 career level)

2:02

Rodney: Managing a dynasty keeper with roster and payroll limitations. Can keep McClanahan, Rodon and Clase – getting one of them at a discounted rate. Leaning McClanahan because of injury history (Rodon) and role (Clase). Which of them would you apply the best value to going forward?

2:03

Paul Sporer: Yes, definitely McClanahan. I love what Rodon has done this year, but I just can’t trust him to put up another full season at the price he is going to cost in ’22 drafts and I’m always leery of investing too heavily in closers

2:05

sean: starting brendan rodgers over votto today?

2:05

Paul Sporer: If he’s in the lineup, I’m OK w/it since they’re in Coors & Votto draws Rodon

2:05

mike: whyyy am i scared of starting cole @TOR?!

2:06

Paul Sporer: Bc it’s Toronto and Cole has been hit hard at times this year, but I can’t really envision sitting him unless you’re just flat out protecting ratios and basically not starting anyone

2:06

Chris: Do either of S Gray,N Eovaldi or Luis Garcia lower my WHIP from 1.166 tonight?

2:07

Paul Sporer: Eovaldi is the best bet to do so, though all three can do it. If you’re only starting one, it’s Eovaldi at BAL

2:08

Zach: Should I roll the dice with Wood today vs ARI, or roll the dice with Burnes on Saturday vs LAD hoping they let him at least go for a QS for his cy young case?

2:09

Paul Sporer: If you’re only able to pick one, I think it’s gotta be Wood just bc Burnes could be limited or sat entirely.

2:10

BringBackDeSpanielHair: BTW, can we please get people to shut up about Soto? My home league might let him slip to the 8th pick in first round again if we don’t hype him up too much.

2:10

Paul Sporer: lololol well he’s gonna be heavily discussed in the NL MVP convo so I’m not sure that’s going to work out well on the shutting up about him lol

2:10

MLBTOPDX: My Point is that analytics Kill what’s good about baseball and frankly shame on it which is The Unexpected and Unexplained. The root things that make baseball what it is

2:10

Paul Sporer: I just don’t agree w/that in the slightest, sorry

2:12

Paul Sporer: You can find instances of ppl who are a bit too deep into the numbers and seem to have lost their joy for the game, but acknowledging playoff odds and understanding what they are saying at any given moment in a season isn’t a problem to me

2:12

DH: Lux has looked great this month. How do you reckon he will get on next year?

2:18

Paul Sporer: It’s BABIP-fueled (.436) w/modest counting cats (1 HR, 1 SB in the 56 PA), but it’s encouraging to see some success. I still like Lux and will be in next yr as I don’t think this Sept. performance will push his price too high.

I don’t see LAD re-signing Seager or Taylor (maybe 1 but I’d be floored if they bring back both) so there will be a real shot for Lux to be their next Taylor playing daily all over the place. He’s been a disappointment in that he hasn’t been great off rip, but his entire career is still essentially an injury-shortened year of play (528 PA) and he’s only 24. He has breakout upside while being priced at a level that can’t hurt you if he doesn’t completely explode.

2:18

Jay: Can keep 12, and am wondering about Varsho. He’s hitting .296, with 10HR and 5 SB in the second half, which as a catcher is quite valuable. Has he really come into his own, or is this second half not to be trusted?

2:21

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan. He has 2 of my favorite traits for fantasy: non-catching catcher (I mean, you have to catch enough to maintain eligibility, but he’s not a full-timer and still plays when he’s not catching) and a running catcher (9 SB in 408 MLB PA). With 550 PA, I think he can be a 20 HR/10 SB guy relatively easily and the upside something like 30/20

2:21

billyjojimbob: Dearest Paul…….I have been leading my 10 team roto league ALL YEAR, aside from a few random days. It’s always been fairly close though (within 5-7 points). I’m in the upper tier of most categories and own most of the pitching ones. Going into the last weekend, do you have a general nugget of wisdom to impart on how to NOT lose?

2:22

Paul Sporer: Best I could think would be sitting medium-to-fringe pitchers if you are in position to lose anything in ERA and WHIP without any real upside to gain. Otherwise, it’s in the hands of your players and you just gotta see how it goes

2:22

>this guy<: Lane Thomas is a guy for real now?

2:26

Paul Sporer: I’ll have some interest as long as he’s tracking for a full-time in Washington next year. He’ll be 26 and looks like one of those solid glue guys you get late that volumes his way to a quality season while also holding a tinge of upside, espec. if he’s turned lose on the bases a bit, though he needs to be sharper in his choices of when to go in able to flex that speed (93rd percentile sprint speed, but just 65% success rate in 115 attempts in the minors)

2:26

billyjojimbob: good advice as usual. thanks so much for doing these all year, dude. Super helpful!!!!

2:27

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome and good luck!!

2:27

joe: whats going on with justin turner? only start vs lefties ROS?

2:30

Paul Sporer: Is that being reported as something? He’s started 4 of the last 5 vR

2:30

Tommy: Keep 3 for next season of Quantill, Ranger Suarez, Eric Lauer, Domingo German, and Alex Cobb. Thanks!

2:31

Paul Sporer: Suarez, Quantrill, Lauer for me. I really love Cobb and always have since his TB days, but we can’t ignore the brutal health track record so he can’t make the cut for me. And I just prefer the other 3 over German bc of German’s persistent HR issue

2:31

Jung Bong Jovi: i do admit that it’s hard to focus on fantasy when the Phils and Barves are trying to stumble their way into the playoffs.  But boy, what a game by Morton last night.  And the Fresh Prince, as per usual, nearly blew it.  Ugh.

2:33

Paul Sporer: As a Tigers fan, I faintly remember that feeling (though it’s been a helluva building block season so the Tigers might be back in the situation sooner than later!). Maybe following the pennant races will be a good distraction to avoid living and dying w/every pitch for your players

2:33

Mike: No one is forcing that guy to dig into analytics. Let others enjoy baseball their way, the same way you want to be able to enjoy it yours. There’s plenty to love! Analytics have expanded on that for some people, but the old majesty of the game has never left it. A team like the 2021 Giants is exciting even to the people who made projections for them I imagine!

2:34

Paul Sporer: Yeah, that’s where I come out. I love the stats and use them regularly, but I know they aren’t an end-all, be-all and I don’t intend to ever use them that way. But ignoring the facts that the data can give us when it runs counter to what we want to believe doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, either

2:34

Mike: Not that he was telling people how to enjoy the game. Complaining about things you don’t like can be part of the fun too!

2:34

Paul Sporer: That’s true. And I’m certainly not above complaining, lol

2:34

paul: Would you start Jmont sat vs TB in NY?

2:35

Paul Sporer: Yes in most cases, he’s a go for me. Again, the super specific scenarios of ratio protection and whatnot can be a sit, but otherwise I’m going w/him

2:35

Tommy: Thanks for the chats and help this season!

2:35

Paul Sporer: You’re quite welcome!

2:36

Paul Sporer: Just another reminder in case anyone missed the open of the chat, this is the final one of the regular season and while they absolutely will continue in the offseason, there will be misses from time to time due to holidays, trips, etc…

2:37

paul: How many games should we expect to miss from hitters on teams that clinched division the next few days? Not sure what we’ve seen in previous years. Or does it just depend on the player (young vs old, injury history). Shouldn’t be more than one or two for them to keep their rhythm, right? E.g. I’d expect Alvarez to sit given some injury history if they clinch today or tmrw

2:38

Paul Sporer: There’s usually a clinch lineup the following day which I assume is to reward the starters, but also bc of the partying lol. Though in the case of StL, they might eschew such a thing bc of their win streak. But ya, I usually expect some of the studs to catch a breather the day after a clinch and then if someone was grinding through an injury, he could miss more to gear up for October once they clinch

2:38

CT: Hey Paul, thanks for the weekly chat. Since everything for this year is out of our hands, let’s look at keepers for 2022 (12tm, 6×6 roto, $260 budget). Keep 3: J. Soto – $35, W. Buehler – $35, C. Burnes – $34, M. Olson – $17, M. Semien – $9, A. Verdugo – $7, N. Eovaldi – $6.

It’s gotta be Soto, Olson, and Semien right?

2:38

Paul Sporer: Absolutely my trio and then hammer pitching at auction!

2:38

Punk in Drublic: Who are some under the radar starters to stream Thu Fri Sat Sun?

2:39

Paul Sporer: Don’t want to spec too far out bc of schedule changes, but I’ll be continuing my SP chart: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/sp-chart

2:40

Paul Sporer: In fact, I need to get going on tomorrow’s (which will post later today) since I have trivia tonight. So I’m going to get going. Thank you all for an amazing season of chats, the support and interaction is awesome. I always look forward to chopping it up w/y’all on Wednesdays!

Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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MLBtoPDX#2024
2 years ago

3 Wild Card AL Contenders Stats from the last Month. Guess the Teams and Guess which will make it in all with just looking at these #s

Offense First;

Team A: 28th SB, 4th OPS, 2nd AVG, 11th in HRs, 7th in RBIs, And 9th Hits

Team B: 8th RBIs, 21st Avg, 8th in Runs Scored, 15th SB,
15th in Hits, 20th OPs, and 17th HR

Team C: 3rd in Hits, 1st in Runs, 1st in HRs, 4th in Avg, 1st in RBIs, 1st in OPS.

Now Defense;

Team A: 19th in WHIP, 24th n Opp Bat Avg, 9th In SO, 22 HR allowed, 16th in Saves, 16th ERA, 13th Runs Allowed, 14th Shutouts

Team B: 3rd in Wins, 15th ERA, 2nd In Saves, 4th Save Opp, 14th ERA, 9th Batting Avg Against , 14 runs allowed, 3rd Shutouts

Team C: 14th in ERA, 10th in Saves, 24 save Opp, 25th Hits Allowed, 4 Batting Avg Against, 17th in Walks, tied 3rd in Shoutouts

Strength of Schedule last Games:

Team A: 4th Hardest
Team B: 11th Hardest
Team C: 8th

Team B hasn’t made the playoffs in 20 years!

MLBtoPDX#2024
2 years ago
Reply to  MLBtoPDX#2024

Don’t be sour! You’ll have to admit ya didn’t think Team A as was the BoSox and B was the Mariners . I’m not a betting man but if I were I wouldn’t bet the last 4-5 games on season long stats, like where all these recent % odds are coming from . I would be betting them on the last months calculations, as ya gotta ride the Hot Teams. Looking AT THE NUMBERS ummm C and B… easily