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Imanaga is rolling to the point where I’d probably start him against a fully powered Yankees team, but it’s super easy to feel confident in him against the hobbled version of NYY.
Could this be Greene’s final start as a Red? They’re getting a lot of heat on him and it wouldn’t be crazy to trade him now that Burns has emerged as the heir apparent ace.
Suarez was limited to just 64 pitches off the IL, but dropped 4 scoreless with 6 Ks, 0 BB; should be able to get through 5 if he’s pitching well v. LAD.
Leahy has been electric lately so maybe I should’ve given him a 3-x today: 1.70 ERA/0.92 WHIP/19% K-BB over his L7.
Young has allowed more than 3 ER just 2x this year and both times it was just 4. The skills don’t scream low-3.00s ERA with just an 11% K-BB and a 1.29 WHIP.
I’m fine if you don’t even want to start Peralta in 15s. He’s just been so bad.
Peralta/Mize scratched due to trade interest; Yamamoto moved to tomorrow
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Pérez not only keeps dropping gems, but super gems! He has 4 straight QS, going 7 IP in two of ’em and allowing a total of 5 ER across 26 IP. He has come out of the other end of that injury looking as good as ever.
I gave Hancock the full reco at LAD so I’m definitely doing the same for Miller, who has been even better. Hancock was just OK at 5 IP/3 ER/5 Ks with 9 base runners. Miller has been hit in 2 of 3, both of the road, underscoring his gaudy venue-based ERA split: 0.95 at home | 4.02 on the road. He still has a healthy 18% K-BB and 1.14 WHIP on the road so even if we get a baseline QS (6 IP/3 ER), we’d be happy.
Burke has had a wonderful season that has hit another level in the summer with an electric K% surge over his L11: 2.49 ERA/1.04 WHIP/24% K-BB, powered by a 33% K rate.
I don’t think I’m sitting Gray at ATH as he’s just been so good this year. I’m trying not to let Sandoval’s gem influence me (5 IP/2 ER/7 Ks) and instead leaning on Gray for his merit.
Ray is running super hot right now, posting a 1.04 ERA in his L7 despite his WHIP being even higher at 1.18 and a truly poor K-BB of just 9%. That said, SDP doesn’t seem like the team to issue him some regression on those paltry skills so he remains firmly entrenched in the rotation.
Sasaki and Weathers seem to be Gem or Dud every time with no rhyme or reason to which is coming when.
Woo in for Miller and his home/road splits are enough to pull outta this entirely for me.
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Pardon me on a few straight morning posts instead of late night. I hit the movies for first time in quite some time last night so I was home late & crashed. We’ll get back on track w/the posts up at night even if the commentary comes in the morning.
3-x
It’s been a rough month for Webb, starting with a Coors Dud followed by one bad inning in each of his L3 despite going at least 6 in all of them. This all comes after a truly brilliant June (.71 ERA) and I’m just not moved to take him out of any lineups, even with a tough matchup against MIL.
I definitely didn’t see Hancock becoming an unquestioned must start arm this year and yet, he’s resided there for most of the year. He could soon be traded, but it likely won’t be by today’s game so if this is his last start as a Mariner, hopefully he can go out with a bang!
Drohan ate his first Dud of the year, allowing 5 ER to COL at home which is tough, but he’s been found money for fantasy managers so we can afford him a bad one even in a great matchup.
Seymour’s ERA (4.64) has kept him from being an unquestioned waiver wire gem. However, since he’s been stretched out into a starter (or full-outing-follower, as he’ll get an Opener again today for the second straight start after four traditional ones), he has 4.27 ERA/1.02 WHIP/24% K-BB. I’ll gladly take an elevated ERA for the elite WHIP and fantastic supporting skills.
2-x
3 interesting lefties populating the 2-x tier today, all of whom could drop 7 scoreless or be out in the 3rd inning with 5-6 runs on their ledger. Sure, that probably describes most pitchers on a given day, but these three have been particularly volatile which keeps them from being rotation locks.
1-x
Martin still has strong season long numbers, powered by an MLB-best 0.5 HR9, but two mega Duds in June (6 ER at MIN, 9 at NYY) have dimmed confidence in him. He has a less awful 4.02 ERA in his L6 since that June Swoon, but paired with a 1.51 WHIP and meager 3% K-BB, we have to be a lot more selective about his starts. I’m not fully out on a start v. the hobbled Yankees, he just far from the set-it-and-forget guy he had become for a time.
Yesavage simply hasn’t broken out as many thought he could this year and I have no problem skipping starts v. WAS with just about any non-ace so I’m fine skipping him here.
AJSS and Wesneski are both debuting off major injuries so while I really like both long-term, my expectations for today and even the remainder of this season are tempered. We’ve seen guys pop off upon return showing few ill effects from their injuries (remember Kyle Bradish last year?) so I’m not ignoring them on the FA landscape, just being very realistic about the extremely wide range of potential outcomes for guys like this.
A rare Rockies reco as Hughes catches the putrid SDP lineup on the road. He’s been solid in four starts, three in Coors, so I’m happy to take some road shots and might even consider a Coors start in right matchup.
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I just rebuilt the board since Cole was switched out for Fried in addition to the Chandler/Keller switch.
Thornton has been strong in 4 starts with at least 6 IP in the last 3. The Mets stink hasn’t infected him yet.
It’s been a rollercoaster, but if you just held your way through Bradish’s ups and downs, you’ve gotten 20 starts of 3.49 ERA/1.32 WHIP with 110 Ks and 7 Ws. I won’t pretend that WHIP isn’t painful and he’s still not paying off the Top 25 SP price tag he had at the draft table but he’s certainly not sinking your season.
Montero returned to the rotation with a gem in Wrigley (5.3 IP/1 ER/8 Ks!) and his .229 BABIP seemingly has some regression coming, but we’ve been saying that all year and he just keeps plugging along. His weekend trip to ATH could be a major regression start so let’s be careful with that one.
Ureña, like Montero, is running super hot with skills that don’t really support his tiny ERA (10% K-BB, 2.78 ERA) but we have seen more consistent bat-missing lately with 42 Ks in his last 43 IP. Similar to Montero, he also has a tougher matchup on the weekend (v. MIL) that make the weekly play a bit of a tougher choice.
Chandler’s lack of control makes him risky regardless of matchup, but I do like that he’s facing an ARI team that has struggled vR all year. It’s Keller, not Chandler… and I’m probably a bit less interested in Keller, but I can still see against this ARI offense. Y’all know I’m not the biggest Keller fan, though.
Rocker and Sproat have been maddeningly inconsistent and likely will remain so this year. Rocker has weirdly been better on the road despite TEX being a great spot to pitch. Sproat, meanwhile, gets a trip to SFG which is always a nice spot but he brings a measure of risk every time out.
Peterson & Perez are mostly full week plays for me as I’d take on their 2-steps in medium or deeper leagues. Neither inspire a ton of confidence, especially for a one-off start, but getting the pair in a weekly setup increases my interest in them.
Schultz gets an NYY team that is 30th vL in the last month, so don’t let that Judge-infused full season 9th ranking mislead you here. They can still clip a guy even without Judge, but this is exactly the kind of spot where you can stream a Schultz type.
Imai’s Duds have consistently erased his good starts every time he strings a couple together. I still think we run him in a decent number of spots against this LAA offense, but we’ve seen clearly this year that matchup doesn’t matter for him. When he’s on, he can get anyone and when he’s off, he’s susceptible against any team.
Scherzer and Kelly head on the road for remarkably difficult matchups while Perkins is just unusable in his home park (7.41 ERA/1.56 WHIP). I can’t find spots for any of ’em.
I don’t rank longer term injury guys, but I did squeeze Ranger Suarez and Connor Prielipp back in as both are tracking to be back this weekend or very soon after.
I’ll be adding comments to each tier over the rest of the weekend and happy to answer any questions or comments below!
Zac Thornton added Saturday morning. Just accidentally left off, I like him.
Aces
The cream of the crop. The pitchers who never come out of the rotation regardless of matchup.
With Miz being managed, Skubal returns to the top spot, especially after Skubal put up 9 Ks in 4 of his L5 outings.
I expanded the Ace tier and popped Greene back in there even after just three starts. He was bumpy in his season debut but then 2 gems since, including 12 Ks v. CHC.
Same with Fried returning to the Ace tier really quick, but I don’t think he needs to earn his way back in. When healthy, he’s an Ace who never leaves the rotation.
Much was made of a couple turbulent starts for Skenes. He looked a lot more like himself in the last couple with 15 Ks and 3 BB in 12.3 IP.
Must Start
These guys are essentially fantasy aces in their own right. Cutting them would take months (barring injury) and benching would be remarkably rare (waning skills for multiple starts + inj. concern could result in skipping a start)
Cole’s had a few ill-timed HRs since his last two starts, but he looks completely dialed in with his stuff and I have all the confidence in him. That Cam-Cole-Fried top 3 is insane.
I was scared about Pérez and actually cut him in my Main Event which definitely stings now that he’s back and dominating. The tough part of no IL spots is how long you want to block off that reserve spot and I was concerned this would be a multi-month absence. Since returning from his 27-day layoff: 1.24 ERA/0.79 WHIP/22% K-BB. Whoops.
Wrobleski rode a skills tightrope for months, posting excellent results despite an outright terrible 15% K% through his first 12 outings. Everything has come together over his L5 with a 1.90 ERA/0.94 WHIP and most importantly a 23% K-BB. He has at least 7 Ks in each of his L3 including dialing up 11 in Sacramento!
I love Brown in general and still have a hard time sitting him anywhere as he’s just 8 starts into his season, but I had to bring him way down in the rankings. The BB% explosion to 16% has saddled him with an untenable 1.45 WHIP. Impressively, his ERA is a palatable 4.05 despite the influx of free bases yielded. I’d like to get to ~12-14 starts before making any drastic moves. I’m at least sticking with him for the upcoming TEX and TOR starts.
Is Ashcraft unraveling or just hitting a blip where the schedule gets the best of him (struggles at PHI, v. MIL, and at NYY aren’t exactly cause for concern even with PHI’s lagging offense and NYY being without Judge)? He still mixed in a gem at one of the hottest offenses in baseball during this run (5.7 IP/2 ER/7 Ks/2 BB at WAS). The HRs are concerning and a key driver behind these troubles. I’m willing to bet blip over fraud check and as such, I will stand by him as a rotation lock.
Usually Start
Splitting hairs a bit here, but this is a smaller group between must starts and team streamers. You’re looking for reasons to start them and need a very strong reason to bench them.
These are elevated streamers where you don’t necessarily run every start, but they hit the bench when they’re not playing because they’re too talented to throw back on the wire.
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Tiny board today with pretty easy decisions down the line!
PIT clipped Gav Williams for 3 in the 6th inning and spoiled what had been an excellent outing, but he still notched 11 Ks to ease the pain of 5 ER.
Seymour’s 4.44 ERA in the L30 days is softened by a 0.95 WHIP and 28% K-BB, plus he gets a great matchup.
I’m not brimming w/confidence on any of the 1-x’ers: McGreevy is a mid-4.00s true talent at best but just keeps dropping gems so I can’t see taking him out of the lineup despite knowing this has to come back Earth. Similar to early season Bryce Elder (1.97 ERA thru 11 starts; 7.65 since).
Bieber has just 5 starts the last of which was a gem (6 IP/0 ER) and the one before that was solid (4.7 IP/2 ER) so I might actually prefer him to McGreevy by a smidge. I’m leaving them in their current order, though.
Pfaadt has been legitimately awesome since his return with a 2.14 ERA/0.95 WHIP including a strong trip to LAD, but I’m soooo skeptical of this success. It’s all control driven with a 1% BB over that time and just a 16% K rate.
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I’m always nervous taking on PIT with righties, but Cole has been strong over his L3 (27% K-BB) so I can’t see sitting him.
Jax’s last start got away from him in 6th with 4 of the 7 ER but even with that, he has a 3.51 ERA/1.10 WHIP/21% K-BB in his L8.
The tough part about Detmers is that he’s great or terrible, no in between, at least from an ER standpoint: 1-3-0-1-0-5-2-5-5-0. The composite run is still excellent: 3.34 ERA/0.96 WHIP/23% K-BB so he remains in the lineup. Plus, each of the Duds in that run came against teams who hit lefties well – at ATH, BOS, at TEX – and the trip to ATH could’ve easily been skipped given how tough that park has been this year.
Ober is still a soft-tossing HR machine so his downside remains severe, but there’s been enough good to get him back in the lineup consistently. His last 2 Duds were very skippable, too, coming against two of the breakout offenses of the year: at PIT and at WAS.
Fried is coming off the IL so I get it if you want to see one especially against a tough PIT offense. They’ve ascended vL, sitting 4th in wOBA over the L30 days so it’s not just righties we have to worry about with the Pirates. I generally run my aces off rip once they’re healthy, but this is one where I could see myself being cautious (I don’t have Fried anywhere to make the decision myself).
After a bit of a June Swoon (that kinda started with his last 2 in May – 5.45 ERA in 7 starts from 5/24-6/28), King has rebounded on the surface with a 2.12 ERA/1.00 WHIP in his L3, but just a 10% K-BB supporting it. So we’re not totally out of the woods with King concerns and I can see some skips here, even if ATL’s offense has come back to Earth recently: 24th in wOBA vR since June 1st after sitting 1st from Opening Day through May.
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Fell asleep on the couch after that excellent Tigers game, so I’ll get some comments up in the morning!!
Gausman might not be fully out of his funk (7.46 ERA in L5) but after 13 ER in the first two, he has 2 QS in his L3. It hasn’t been a great season, but I can’t see sitting him in many spots.
Framber has struggled with start-to-start consistency as evidenced by his ER counts over his L12: 7-2-4-1-4-1-4-0-1-4-5-1. So while he’s fallen short of expectations with his composite ratios, it’s hard to get away from start him. I could maybe see a skip in 10s here if you have a deep rotation, but 12s and deeper should keep him locked in.
ReyLo’s back! One of my favorites over the years, he’s fully stretched out with 5 IP in each of his L3 outings and now gets the worst offense in the league.
If you’re a big Thornton backer, I can see starting him in some 10s, too. I played it cautiously with MIL but he’s been impressive in his spot starts and has the skills to be a part of this rotation. We’ll see if Clay Holmes kicks him out upon return but then the deadline should clear a spot for him assuming they don’t win every game between now and August 3rd and miraculously get back into the mix.
Sproat has a looked a lot more like the breakout pick many thought he could be coming into the season, posting a 3.55 ERA/1.12 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L7 after a 6.24 ERA through May. I don’t blame anyone who cut him after back-to-back months of mid-6.00s and the walks that plagued him early aren’t fully handled with a 9% BB during this run.
Warren, Imai, and Schultz are scary streamers. They have the upside to pop off, but we’ve seen the downside, especially lately with all 3 toting an ERA north of 5.00 in the last month of work. Warren and Schultz also get tough matchups and while Imai’s MIA matchup isn’t super difficult, they have been known to go off at times, too.
It was a begrudging 1-x for Perkins and probably should be 0, but I keep getting drawn in by the quality core skills. Even in this nightmare run of his L7 with an 8.32 ERA/1.68 WHIP, he still has a 17% K-BB (f0r context, that’s a Top 30 mark among qualified SPs). While Sacramento is to blame for some of the trouble, he has a 6.08 ERA on the road, too, but with ARI ranking 28th in wOBA and Corbin Carroll possibly out of the lineup again as he’s nursing an elbow issue that kept him out Monday. I want to love Perk, but he has punished fantasy mangers who’ve believed in him so far.
MIN yoinked Anderson from BOS and will be in a Follower position today which could put him in line for a W. He throws strikes and is stretched out enough to go 4-5 IP.
