Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – October 20th, 2016

Paul Sporer: Hello everybody!! Let’s talk some baseball

Nori: What do you think about Nick Castellanos’ outook going forward in a dynasty? His first half got me excited… second half (injury aside) not so much.

Paul Sporer: Ya he certainly cooled after the super fast start, but not to a level that has me concerned. We didn’t really get a look after the fractured hand so he essentially lost two months. He had 2 great months, 2 mediocre months.

Paul Sporer: We didn’t really see any raw skills gains behind his power boost except some more flyballs and higher pull percentage. He lingered around league average in his first two full seasons and he’s now just 25 years old. All told, I’m still relatively high on him. I think he can be a mid-20s power source and his line drive bat still suggests a .300 season or two is very possible in the future.

Gest: Remember when Showalter needed a ground ball in an elimination game and he gambled on Ubaldo Jimenez instead of Zach Britton?

Paul Sporer: LOL, I sure do

hooha: Would you trade Goldy & Stanton for Rizzo & Correa in a 12tm 5×5 keeper league that didn’t have MI slots?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I would. It’s a hit from Goldy to Rizzo (did you realize Goldy had 32 SBs?!), but I’ll take the budding superstar SS in Correa over Stanton and his mounting pile of injuries. There’s also a chance that the SBs are a wash if Goldy comes back down to the upper-teens, low-20s and Correa adds to the teens totals we’ve seen in his first two seasons.

Neal: Please rank keepers from best to worst, number represents round of draft pick given up: Schoop (17), Bradley Jr. (7), Lamb (7)

Paul Sporer: I think the 10-round difference does put Schoop on top because he’s not 10 rounds worse than either of the other two. I’m on the higher end w/JBJ so I’ll give him the slight edge over Lamb, but those 2 are pretty interchangeable

Sonny: Wil Myers is losing OF eligibility in my dynasty league what do you think is fair value with Goldy firmly in place? Not looking to sell for the sake of selling

Paul Sporer: Myers is almost a baby Goldy in that he adds some speed with the pop, although this was his first healthy year to put it on display. I’d be wanting a top-60 player in return.

Sonny: Rank these 3Bs for 2017: Healy, Franco, Sano?

Paul Sporer: Franco, Sano, Healy. Eno’s got me on that Healy train, but I still think the other two are a class ahead

Hannah Hochevar: Oooh, that Vince Staples is nice.

Paul Sporer: Been vibin him big time lately, really like his stuff

Sonny: Kyle Seager development in line with league’s HR surge, his own progression, both?

Paul Sporer: Probably both. He’s definitely been refining his power game bit-by-bit, in fact he’s added HRs every year of his career, but he no doubt was boosted a little by the great HR environment of ’16. He’s a really good player

Gest: Rizzo and Freeman are the same guy by slash line, but I think it’s fair to say Rizzo is more coveted for fantasy purposes. My question is, for next year’s auction valuation, by how much is Rizzo>Freeman?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think it’s team context-based with regards to their split. But the Braves played a lot better in the 2H and Freef ended up with 193 R+RBI and they should be non-awful for all of next year (though I’m not sure they’re a viable contender just yet). With that in mind, I’m not sure I’d go more than a couple bucks difference between the two. Let someone else pay for the perception that Rizzo is way better and take the discount on Freef

Dumpster Fiers: Joc had a strong finish to the season. Is he ready to live up to that top prospect tag?

Paul Sporer: I was big on him this year and while he fell short of my expectations for the breakout, I won’t be moving away from him in ’17. Unfortunately, he’s a complete non-factor against LHP, but he still gets the strong side of the platoon which is enough to be mixed league viable. Plus, I still think there’s some SB upside (mid-teens)

mario mendoza: Should I buy another ticket for the Maikel Franco ride next year, or move on?

Paul Sporer: Stay the course for sure. Hard to knock a guy who goes 25 HR/88 RBI in his first full season. He’s gonna be just 24 years old next year. Needs to improve against righties, but still plenty of upside for him to tap into coming up

Asdasd: Did you see the Urias/millennial segment Fox did in last night’s NLCS game 4? Just what baseball needs to appeal to younger viewers right?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t… how bad was it?

Snowflake: How are you going to get a new phone and not get the newest model?? Luddite!

Paul Sporer: LOL. I didn’t want a 7 yet. Not ready to give up the headphone jack. I wanted to get a 6+ so I was actually getting something different, but they didn’t freakin have any at multiple T-Mobile stores!!!

Pennsy: Today @MLB has its avatar bordered in purple to celebrate Spirit Day. How is it that there are NO openly gay players in Major League Baseball?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know, I imagine it’s a huge deal for any player to carry that tag and I can understand the reservations they may have. I think we’re progressing toward that and toward the point where it just won’t even matter, but we’re not there just yet.

Asdasd: Re: Urias/millennial, it was the intro segment where a narrator says something like “All millennials are lazy… (cuts to some LA people in their 20’s saying things like ‘I’m just trying to chill”) …but this one isn’t.”

Paul Sporer: Oof.

Minty: Long term looks great for these two, but what are you expecting from Moncada and Beni next yr for OBP leagues?

Paul Sporer: After just 45 games in AA, I could see Moncada spending most of the season in the minors so I’m not too focused on him for mixers next year. Benintendi didn’t play many more games at AA before his jump, but he’s a college bat who looked a lot more comfortable in his MLB sample (I know Moncada’s was a nothing 8-game sample). I think a .340 OBP is viable for Beni

Dumpster Fiers: What do you think we will see from Guerra next year?

Paul Sporer: 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8 Ks per nine (swinging strike rate suggested more than the 7.4 we saw this year)

mario mendoza: Has Bautista conceded defeat?

Paul Sporer: No… only if they win!

Sonny: Does Story’s wrist injury worry you going forward? Lots of guys lose pop with that injury and Story w <20 HR power is a much different fantasy player

Paul Sporer: Maybe a little concern, but it wouldn’t be long-term. Plus he still has Coors backing him. I think he’s a mid-20s HR guy at least

Frank the Tank: I know you’re not the prospect guy, but any thoughts on Ronald Acuna’s future fantasy relevance? I think he kinda flew under the radar on prospect lists this last season, but seems like he should move right into the top 50.

Paul Sporer: I’d be lying if I pretended to know ANYTHING about him, but at the same time, top-50 feels a little lofty at this stage

Paul Sporer: My quick research suggests he’s definitely an up-and-comer though

Sonny: is the Final Boss a top tier fantasy RP next season?

Paul Sporer: He’s damn close for me. I haven’t made any early RP rankings just yet, but I feel confident that he’ll have a single digit ranking for me… so top 9 at least

Sonny: i won my league this year bc Fangraphs. thanks

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome!

Minty: You and Eno said something like 20/12 for Beni next year. What do you see as his realistic peak?

Paul Sporer: Not entirely sure, but I think the upper ends of his peak really push the AVG and SB up as opposed to the HR. Maybe a peak is like .330-25-28 or something?

JD15: trying to join a new otto league for next year. i’ve never played it before but I have been playing yahoo fantasy baseball (keeper) for 5+ years. How much different is it? and if I’m trying to join a brand new league there aren’t any deadlines when I need to find a league before the intial draft, right?

Paul Sporer: It’s really different. I think you’ll find this section most helpful: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/category/ottoneu/

Paul Sporer: I don’t think there are any deadlines for league signup and if there are, they aren’t impending

E5: Just thought I would post this because I like looking at it so much.

Paul Sporer: LOL, harsh

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. I’ve got a few errands to run this afternoon, so I gotta go shorter

Paul Sporer: Talk to y’all next week!