Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – November 17th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Yo yo yoooo!!! Let’s talk some baseball!!!

Jordan: Akil Baddoo has some pretty incredible stats for an 18 year old in the Appy league. Think he’s the type of prospect that can really shoot up lists in dynasty circles?

Paul Sporer: :Googles Akil Baddoo:

Paul Sporer: Ohhhh THAT Akil Baddoo

Paul Sporer: I’m sorry, I know literally zero about him and I don’t wanna pretend and mislead you

Dusty: Anything to report on Twins SS Prospect Wander Javier?

Paul Sporer: Fuck, we’re off to a rousing start

Paul Sporer: :Googles Wander Javier:

Paul Sporer: Jokes aside, I’m not great on low minors guys. My bandwidth covers all MLB for sure, usually know a few things about most of the top 100 prospects, and then some AA/AAA guys. I just don’t have the time to be deep into the low minors

Minty: $200 QS/OBP with 5 OF. $2 Castillo or $4 Conforto? have Kluber/Thor/Nola/JGray and Betts/Springer/Belly/Hoskins/Robles and loaded IF.

Paul Sporer: daaaaamn that’s tough. I’m gonna go Castillo as I’m still a little concerned about Conforto’s shoulder, though not to the level I was when the injury first happened and it was doom & gloom

georgehermanski: Can a team wanting to sign Ohtani legally offer him an opt-out of the contract in say 2 Years? How about a no trade clause? Thanks

Paul Sporer: I think things are too up in the air on that right now. I gotta imagine they can sign him under whatever the posting system ends up being and then offer him an extension at some point after that.

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure they can do it like RIGHT after he signs, though

asdgasdgasdg: When’s Stanton getting traded

Paul Sporer: West Coast really seems to be his preference and he’s in control with the his no-trade clause

Paul Sporer: I know SF has a shit system, but there’s enough talent in any org to get a deal done so I wouldn’t rule them out just bc they lack Top 100 guys

schmaltitude: 10 team, 12 keepers as round 1-12 picks. Have probably 14-15 I’d be comfortable keeping so would like to try to make a move for a star and consolidate. Thoughts on Yelich+Andrus as an interesting starter package for Altuve or Betts?

Paul Sporer: I’d go for Betts as his price might be down a touch given his batting avg this year while Altuve is sky-high. And yes, I think that’s a start. I don’t think it’ll get it done necessarily, but it’s not insulting to start there

John: Is there any FA more ballpark or league dependent than Cargo? Out of Coors, I think he needs a small ballpark and with his defense, be in the AL. I could not be less excited for him on say the Mets or more excited if he were on the Astros.

Paul Sporer: Always interesting to see how a Coors guy will do outside of Colorado after being there so long. He is a legitimately good hitter when he’s right, though, so don’t discount the possibility of a solid campaign in some new digs. Don’t forget, there’s a Coors Hangover on the road that offsets some of the home field gains. Obviously Coors is a great place to hit, but it’s doesn’t really turns losers into studs.

Saul Porer: Slade Cecconi seemed to put together a great year at Trinity Prep, what would you project for him in 2021?

Paul Sporer: I hate you

Purple Mays Haze: Possible that Brad Peacock actually becomes Astros’ “closer” in 2018? (Or at least gets most saves)

Paul Sporer: He’d have the stuff to do it, but I think it’d be wasting an asset to limit him unless it was 2-inning saves. He’s a perfect 110-140 IP kinda guy

Quadrangular: any advice for starting up a dynasty league? platform? # of roster slots? rules and regulations? thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m hoping a veteran dynasty leaguer in the chat can field this one as I’m not even in such a league rn and feel ill-equipped to give a good answer

Paul Sporer: Man, I’m just doling out so much useful info today!

Electric: How do you feel about Chad green as a starter?

Paul Sporer: Having not known much about Jordan Montgomery coming into last year (I now love him), I was rooting hard for Green to get that 5th starter job. I dig Green and think his stuff can really play in 4-6 IP stints.

David: Who are two to three top of the rotation SP prospects I could target in a dynasty league with the potential to reach the majors this year? Buehler/Kopech?

Paul Sporer: I’d have Honeywell above them, but those are two good ones, too.

Paul Sporer: I like Justus Sheffield and Mitch Keller, too

S: Quadrangular, just go to Ottoneu

Paul Sporer: I am in an Ottoneu league and we just did arbitration which was soooo fun. You have $X (I think it was $25) and you dole out between $1-3 per team adding to the costs of their guys. Obviously you target young, cheap guys (everyone hit me on Bellinger)

Joeeeee: Do you see Acuna getting picked in drafts next year? If so, how high?

Paul Sporer: He went 8th rd in my league in Arizona a couple weeks ago. Now that league is known for reaching, it’s just kinda what we do, so I don’t expect him to ADP in the 8th rd, but he’ll go in every draft. Probably 10-13th round area

Sam: ANYTHING TO REPORT ON MARIANO DUNCAN?

Paul Sporer: We signed him to our softball team. It’s a 1-year make-good deal. He’s gotta prove something to us

Johnny: Can keep 12, who gets left out: Mazara, C Taylor, Elvis, Paxton

Paul Sporer: Mazara. I’m a big Maz fan, but OF is so deep that I think he’s the most replaceable even if he takes the step forward I see coming

Bob: any breakout 3B you recommend targeting in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Devers, Castellanos, Gallo

Pablo: Gonna need a a cheap guy with some INF flexibility next year. How would you rank Asdrubal, Nunez, Solarte, and B Phillips?

Paul Sporer: Nunez, Asdrubal, Solarte, B Phil

John: Okay so if Harper’s expected contract is 500 million, what is Machados? Would it make more sense for the Yankees to go in for Stanton and then going all in for Machado? Harper and Machado now seems more impossible than before but Machado and Stanton in pinstripes? Possible?

Paul Sporer: I mean they can AFFORD two of those guys, but I’m not sure they wanna do that. I think between the options, they’d rather get Harper/MM since it’s *only* money whereas Stanton requires assets and money

Saul Porer: What are your thoughts on giving the SP with the most Wins next year the Cy Young?

Paul Sporer: Bob Nightengale, is that you?

Schmaltitude: if Blackmon does not sign an extension in COL, how much does that impact his longterm value? One year left under contract in Coors

Paul Sporer: It’d depend where he goes, but it would certainly impact. I think he’d hit outside of Coors and be a solid player, but not the lockdown 1st rounder he is now

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Yo Paul! Am I crazy for liking the off season just as much as the regular season? So much speculation! Hoskins a second or third rounder for you in standard leagues?

Paul Sporer: The only problem is the shitty winter weather that goes with it, but otherwise yes, it’s still really fun

Paul Sporer: and deconstructing the previous season is also a lot of fun

Paul Sporer: 3rd round for Hoskins works for me. I’d scoop him there

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: How much should I shame someone who didn’t pay up their dues?

Paul Sporer: Give ’em a few chances privately, but otherwise I’m not against blowing ’em up

That 80s Guy: Deal Freddie+Carrasco for Arenado in a keeper? Would then also keep Greinke.

Paul Sporer: Ya that definitely works for me

DW: What do you think of Daniel Murphy with the injury, should we knock him down from the 40s to the 60-80s? Or does he possess a JD Martinez possibility? (Meaning he could provide value even with the missed games…)

Paul Sporer: Ya I think we gotta bump him down a bit going to age-33 with an injury, but I do agree that he can do a full season of damage in like 130 games. If he falls too far, I’ll be heavily invested

JD15: How do you approach offseason trading?

Paul Sporer: Generally I’m trading arms for bats in the offseason

Kyler: How soon until Alex Anthopoulos makes his first deal with the Braves?

Paul Sporer: 3 weeks

Paul Sporer: Can only go a bit longer. I didn’t prepare and eat lunch before and now I’m staaaarrrvvviiinnggg

Minty: At this point is it safe to assume that Urias never pitches in the majors again? Sucks losing his talent at such a young age

Paul Sporer: Nah I wouldn’t go that far at this point. He’s still soooo young. It definitely sucks to see him suffer an injury that is so devastating, but I’m not ending his career yet

Shuck Bowalter: Was this a fluke season for Eduardo Nunez, or should we expect him to put up a similar season (with terrible defense) next season?

Paul Sporer: Sorry, died of starvation for a second

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s a fluke bc he did it for a second straight season. He’s a solid fantasy investment with that speed

Al Gone Quinn: Will Villar get a little closer to his 2016 performance this year?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think if he gets the playing time, he’ll be better than this year. I was a believer and was cool drafting him early bc I thought we’d get 40 SBs even if his triple slash cratered (which it did, but we only got 23)

Roadhog: If the A’s really wanted him, could they make a move for Stanton? If the Marlins ate about 50%

Paul Sporer: I mean, they coulllldddd as they have the talent, but it’d probably cost them too much talent and I think they’re too cheap to even pay 50%

Al Gone Quinn: In a FG pts league, Samardzija was surprisingly good last year. Does he sustain this performance?

Paul Sporer: He’s a true innings eater. Really solid SP. Gotta kinda set it and forget it with him (except Coors)

Al Gone Quinn: Is Chirinos the #1 catcher in TX this year?

Paul Sporer: For now, yes

Some 5th Starter Guy: Listening to the pod right now, and Eno is talking about finding the next long reliever types. I.e. Musgrove, Miller, Divenski, Chad Green.  I suggest a dive in on Vince Velsaquez, if the phillies fill out the rotation, he’s already shown the ability in 2-4 innings

Paul Sporer: Love me some VV and I agree he might be better cut out for the 1-2 times through league

John: I get that people are trying to push for Otani to the NL because he can pinch hit but try selling pinch hitting against a LOOGY once a game as opposed to getting 3-4 ABs as a DH.

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t get the whole *he has to go to NL for this to work* thing. really think DH’ing a couple times a week is the play

Worm Turner: Any chance we see any improvement with the A’s starting rotation, or are they pretty much what they’ll be? As a longtime fan- aside from Manaea, it’s surprising how yawn-stipating it looks currently.

Paul Sporer: Definitely think there’s another level to Manaea. He was ailing down the stretch, I don’t think he just lost his skills. Not quitting Cotton, either. He has the arsenal, but deployment of it needs refinement. Don’t trust Hahn to stay healthy and I think Graveman’s ’17 is kinda the peak

Paul Sporer: Triggs and Mengden could be Gravemany

Granada: Going for one last year on Yelich…. would you keep him for $30 less than Betts ($45)

Paul Sporer: He’s $30… less than Betts…. or he’s $30 less than Betts (aka $15?)… honestly it doesn’t matter bc I think it’s a viable keep either way

Ark: Bum and JDM for Sale which side do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Gimme the duo

E5: Pick one in a keep forever dynasty score sheet league: Hoskins, Robles, Albies, Luis Castillo

Paul Sporer: Robles!

Ben: Trying to acquire a high-end bat for my NL team that has been rebuilding the last two years. Tons of cheap young arms and a surplus of OF bats too. Looking to trade for $28 Arenado, trading back $15 Conforto and $14 deGrom. This would still leave me with a path to buy Bryce in the auction this year. Gotta find a way to make it happen, right?

Paul Sporer: Definitely. Go big. You’ve been planning for 2 years, don’t shy away from stars this year! Get your whale!!!

Ark: Being offered Machado and Acuna for Harper. Should I do it?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’d do that. It’s not implausible to see MM replicating Harper in bottom line value espec. with the position difference (mind you, I definitely think Harper is better, but they’re not light years apart) and then Acuna tossed in! Gold!!

Hannah Hochevar: Did you know there was an ARod quartet? (https://www.allmusic.com/album/mendelssohn-quartets-8230–mw0003094157) Seems unrelated, but then again ARod always seemed like a Mendelssohn fan…

Paul Sporer: lolol

Catchers: Keep 3- Judge, Stanton, Machado, Kluber, Bryant, Severino. Thanks Paul!

Paul Sporer: Stanton, Bryant, Kluber. If you prefer Judge, keep him over Stanton, but both is overkill IMO. I wanna diversify a bit. Same with KB/MM. But then I’m keeping Kluber over Sevvy for sure

Rasta: Sano @ $10 or Kluber @ $44?

Paul Sporer: League context would help, but I think I’m going Sano

weezy: I’ve got Pham, Conforto, Olson, Hoskins and Bellinger all at $1 in a 12-tm OBP & SLG league. Pick one to kick back in?

Paul Sporer: Deuces, Olson! and I like him for sure, but gotta be him

Mark: Hey Paul, I heard the latest podcast and was interested in what you and Eno were saying about the relievers being more valuable and wins may not be something you use to draft starters. In my league, for years I always chase saves. Based on what you guys were saying, Should I draft a couple of studs and then draft guys like Maeda and Green and hope I run into a couple wins a week with them?

Paul Sporer: Ya I definitely think the wins landscape is changing and these guys coming in the 5th and 6th and going 2+ IP could wind up chasing down double digit dubs and not cost you much at all

Ark: How much does Stanton’s long term fantasy value go down if he goes to SF?

Paul Sporer: A little, but not much. No park can hold him. He makes Miami look tiny

Charlie: Rank these according to best odds of a bounceback 2018- Miggy, Story, Odor, and Marte?

Paul Sporer: I think that’s the order for me. If you look at Marte’s #s and full season ’em, he wasn’t down that much so he’s def last. Plus his cost hasn’t changed at all. Meanwhile, the others can be had cheaper than last year. Miggy could be a real boon. So many are ready to bury him and I get the age/health concern, but a healthy Miggy will absolutely rake

Walt Whitman: Is Luke Weaver a top 50 SP next year?

Paul Sporer: Close! https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/october-2018-starting-pitcher-rankin…

Hannah Hochevar: Hulet doesn’t seem too hot on Candelario. Your take as (and not as) a Tigers fan?

Paul Sporer: Not elite, but a solid glue piece, espec. in AL only

Mark: Do you like Luis Perdomo at all for 2018?

Paul Sporer: I do. But actually prefer Lamet. Would like to see a few more swings and misses from Perdomo to go with the big GB%

Sonny: If you have steals built into the rest of your roster defensible to keep Ozuna over Marte for OF1?

Paul Sporer: For sure

Chim Richolds: Keep 2/3: J. Schoop, J. Baez, A. Simmons. Pts league.

Paul Sporer: Ooh that is tough. Schoop for sure. I buy Simmons’ growth and think he can be really solid again in ’18, but Baez has the major upside and if he just does ’17 again, it’s hardly an L so I gotta go him

Frank: You mentioned Castellanos earlier as a breakout. What do you like about him, he’s young but been around fro a while.

Paul Sporer: Really think there’s another power level to go with a solid batting average. Yes, he’s been around for a while, but just 26 years old so I don’t think he’s at peak yet

David: Who closes for KC next year? Is it worth keeping Kelvin Herrera?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Kelvin Herrera stan… I can’t help it. So I’m giving him another go, but not overdrafting like last year lol

Harold: Ottoneu league…first year I’ve done offseason trading and I’ve been offered Stanton ($61), Correa ($48), and Garcia ($5) for Segura ($14), Molina ($5), Syndergaard ($41), Margot ($6), and Conforto ($9)….I took over this team and worked hard to get some young talent and Stanton/Correa are awesome but that’s too much for me to give up right?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think that’s a bit too much. I’d keep the stockpile of younger talent

sean: Joc Pederson – well above average exit velocities, cut the swinging strike rate down, terrible babip.  Does he play enough to break out next year?

Paul Sporer: My Herrera obsession pales in comparison to the Joc one. I can’t quit this dude, but I will stop projecting him for a double-digit SB season bc of his minor league work

Paul Sporer: But he has tremendous pop and while he’s never going to be some .280 hitter, I do think he can be a reasonable .250 guy without losing his pop

JR Bob Dobbs: Long-time listener, first-time caller…can keep five in a 6×6 dynasty h2h cat league where OPS replaces AVG, Ks added to hitting, losses added to pitching: Votto, J Ramirez (CLE, not ATL), Sale, Strasburg, C Seager, Bregman…who misses the cut?

Paul Sporer: damn that’s tough. I think I’m going the unpopular route a bit here as I’m going to keep Breg over Seager

Beni and the Betts: How early would you draft Judge?

Paul Sporer: late-2nd at the earliest

Sleepy: Posey still a Top 3 fantasy (OBP, SLG, R, RBI, SB-CS) catcher?

Paul Sporer: Yes with Sanchez and Contreras

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Kakie Bryan looks like he is going to be worth an early call-up next season. What are your thoughts?

Paul Sporer:

Dub: Quadrangular: for dynasty leagues check out scoresheet.com its simulation style closest thing to managing a real team, bunch of different styles for number of keepers, minors eligible players etc

Steve O: Devers gonna stay at 3B long term? Or will the bat play so well you just keep him there and hope for the best.

Paul Sporer: Definitely there for the foreseeable future. Could see 1B down the line, but not in the next 3 years or so

Jim: Should I trade JD for Greinke? I already have Kershaw, MadBum, and CMart.

Paul Sporer: No, I’d rather have JD

Spreadsheet Scout: How much you paying for Acuna in a standard rules auction league (12, 260, 5×5) in which he can potentially be kept at a slight cost increase?

Paul Sporer: Probably maxing at like $11

Snake the Jake: Better keep: Kluber for $25 or Blackmon for $31? 10 tm stan roto

Paul Sporer: Blackmon

Pad Squad: If the Padres package Solarte and Hand in a trade, could they get a top 25 prospect in return? Who might be most interested in those two guys?

Paul Sporer: Hand’s value is probably higher in-season as teams have an idea of where they’re at and how much an elite RP can help so I’m not sure that duo automatically brings back a top 25, but it would net a solid return

Sleepy: Eric Chavez’s 6/$66 (?!?!?) extension from 2004 (?!?!?) is still the biggest contract in A’s history.  There’s no conceivable set of circumstances than puts Stanton in Oakland.

Paul Sporer: Ya and I just don’t see it for any # of reasons

Baxter: You said you trade arms for bats in the offseason. Would you trade kershaw for bryant or bellinger in a keep forever 5×5 roto? Already have Trea, Harper, Machado and correa. Would you trade kershaw for a younger SP?

Paul Sporer: I’d really be open to Kersh for Bryant

Andre: Yo Sporer,

Paul Sporer: Yo Andre,

Mitch: Should I be looking to sell Adam Duvall if I have Austin Hays waiting in the minors?

Paul Sporer: Not so much bc of Hays, but maybe if you have some nice pop already

Dave: Cespedes or Albies in a keeper?

Paul Sporer: Man, I was gonna say at same cost it’s Yo, but I’m not even sure :Eno pushes Paul out of his chair: KEEP ALBIES, HE’S THE BEST. HE’S LIKE A IPA LAGER STOUT BREW MIX BEER TERM BEER TERM AHHHH

MarkH: How excited are you that the grind for Jimmy Rollins and Lincecum are very easy for a person that hates playing vs CPU?    How likely is it that the 99 Rollins replaces JJ Hardy in your lineup?

Paul Sporer: J Roll def happening. Probably not goin for Lincecum. I did just get that Dodgers Hanley, but the numbers aren’t there yet so he’s basically got until J Roll is done to prove himself

Paul Sporer: I will be using Hanley in the new event, so he’ll get his chance to shine

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: That was a long play to find a dating profile.

Paul Sporer: I had it ready bc I sent it to Eno the other night, but I wanted to block out some random girl’s face so that took a while. I realize it killed the joke by taking 10 minutes lol

Tintin, hold the macoute: Thanks for the chat, Paul. Know anything about rookieball dynasty CF Wadye Ynfante? His 2017 numbers prorate to 25 HR’s and 40 SB’s over a full season, but I haven’t seen any “pub” about the guy.

Paul Sporer: Y’all just makin up names out here

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I gotta roll. I’m built like Carl Edwards and Taylor Swift… we can’t afford to skip meals so I gotta eat! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24). I will be streaming in a few hours (6-7 PM CT) so you can bring your questions there, too!

Paul Sporer: Talk to y’all next week!