Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 26th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Happy Friday!!!!

Paul Sporer: This song randomly jumped in my head yesterday, so now you can listen to it

Hannah Hochevar: Happy Friday!!

A: Hi Paul! In a Roto OBP, would you rather have Yelich or your boy Upton ROS?

Paul Sporer: Yelich, but they’re close

bl27: Rhys Hoskins is to be on fire in AAA. Chance to see him soon

Paul Sporer: No room at the inn right now with Joseph raking

Gary W: Hey Paul! I have the chance to trade for Salazar or Verlander. Who would you rather gamble on?

Paul Sporer: Verlander right now

Mark M: Being offered Ozuna and Quintana for Marte in a 12 tm dynasty. Would you do that?

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Claire: Stream tonight: godley or strailey

Paul Sporer: I like Godley, but Straily at home is the better bet

Hannah Hochevar: Eno told me yesterday that he has faith in Matt Boyd thanks to some arm angle nonsense. Is he right? (He even advocated starting vs. ChiSox, though they hit surprisingly well vs. lefties.)

Paul Sporer: I see the upside in Boyd when I watch him, but he’s a young arm so the ups and downs are nerve-wracking

Daniel: Last you advised me to drop Renfroe or Kepler in favor of Yoenis coming off the DL. Are we still sure about that? Both of those guys are raking and cheap for me to keep. I have Dex and Forsythe hanging around too.

Paul Sporer: I’d still cut an OF, it’s up to you which on e

Paul Sporer: one*

Kev: Austin Jackson just activated. Should Zimmer owners be displeased?

Paul Sporer: Only if he gets sent down, but he’s not going to rot on an MLB bench

Martin: Trade Correa for Trea if I need steals? 10-team redraft.

Paul Sporer: Eh, it’s not awful, but I’d wanna keep Correa. I’d look elsewhere for SBs

Casey: Paul, Yelich (21) + Devers (3) + Ray (4) for JD (51) in OBP keeper (keep 8, $260 budget)? () show cost

Paul Sporer: Fair deal for JD. He’s such a monster.

Matt: Sonny Gray and Brett Gardner for Justin Upton and Sean Manaea in an OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Prefer the latter, but fair deal

JD15: I just traded for Kimbrel now I have a surplus of good relievers (FGpts). Should I keep guys like ottavino/Kahnle/bush or do I try and use them to upgrade elsewhere?

Paul Sporer: Leverage them if you can

Cookie: What should we know about Adam Frazier? A 10-team bat for you yet?

Paul Sporer: Not yet, he’s really empty AVG, but I dig him in just about any other format tbh

#BanTheWave: Recency bias I guess but Thames is starting to worry me. I didn’t expect April to last, but he seems to not be doing much other than walking lately. Notice anything substantially different? Health?

Paul Sporer: Nothing to really worry about as far as I’m concerned

Big Tuna: Devenski hasn’t been nearly as effective in May as he was in April. Are you worried about HOU over-using him and in a non-holds league would you drop him for a stash like Soria?

Paul Sporer: He was just silly in April, so we knew he’d come down. I don’t think he’s being overused, i’d hang on

Grant: Fandom aside, you still buying on Nick Castellanos?

Paul Sporer: Generally, yes. Need more specifics otherwise

Bruce Bocce: Hi Paul. You and Eno scared me with the whole ‘Jorge Soler will never hit a breaking ball’ thing the other day. Is he worth holding in AL OBP keeper league? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Soler was Eno’s guy so for him to kinda knock him resonated with me

Micah: Keeping the faith with Maikel Franco in 10-team? Because ugh.

Paul Sporer: Yes. .223 BABIP is holding him down, but batted ball profile still strong and his HR pace isn’t far from last yr

dee’s nuts: Is Aaron Hicks droppable in a 12 teamer? Is he coming back down to earth?

Paul Sporer: I’m looking to get Hicks rn with Ellsbury’s injury

Big Tuna: If I’m searching for HR in an OPS keeper league, should I trade D. Peralta and either Smoak or Moreland for Bird/Beltran?

Paul Sporer: No

Bbboston: Thoughts on clevinger?

Paul Sporer: Talent is there, but I think we’ll still see some bumps, mostly pertaining to his walk rate

Leon: Trade Duffy and Bundy for Lester? I have players coming off of DL and want to make room. Thanks

Paul Sporer: In a 10-teamer, I could do that

Mark M: How highly do you think of Conforto in a dynasty? Top 30?

Paul Sporer: Top 30 is probably a touch high, but he’s awesome

Linus: Cameron Maybin worth a look in shallow leagues?

Paul Sporer: Assuming he’s OK. Left yesterday’s game, so check news

ChicagoCardinal: Manaea good to go in the Bronx tonight?

Paul Sporer: I’d start him in pretty much all formats, yeah

Big Tuna: Is it time to sell Zobrist after this hot stretch or is he still solid as a starting 2B in a 12 tm?

Paul Sporer: I dig Zobrist, but I can understand moving him

Big Tuna: You starting CMART in Colorado tonight?

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t bench CMart anywhere

Twinkies: Thoughts on Berrios after his 3 starts?

Paul Sporer: Always been a huge Berrios so I’m encouraged by this fast start. He’s much more in command of his stuff and I think he dealt with pitch tipping issues last year which seem to be cleared up

Kent: Samardshark worth holding on 10-team shallows, or still just a streamer?

Paul Sporer: I’d hold. His skills are fantastic. Still outrunning some early ERA ugliness from at ARI and at COL starts

Big Tuna: Where do you think Trea Turner eventually settles in terms of offensive production? .270, 15 HR, 40 steals?

Paul Sporer: Ya that seems about right. If anything, I’d shave a couple HR and add a couple SB

Wes : Andrus just hit his 6th home run last night. Where do you think he finishes? North of 15? I was amazed that he’s 28 y/o. Feels like he’s been around forever.

Paul Sporer: He broke in at 20, so it’s been a while! I think we’ll see 12-15 out of him given this fast start

Pat: My two closers in an AL-only league are Norris and Justin Wilson. How worried should I be that I’ll have zero closers soon?

Paul Sporer: Not very. I don’t think Wilson is going to lose it anytime soon

Bbboston: Who would you rather have: severino or Berrios?

Paul Sporer: Berrios

Guest: Also, is Blake Parker as good as his peripherals?

Paul Sporer: Velo spike, swinging strike rate surge, getting ahead more. Lots of positives for Parker

Dave: I’m desperate for pitching in 14 team league, got plenty of offense. I was offered Sonny Gray for my Chris Owings. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I’m good with that

Tommy: Looking at their xFIP & SIERRA, both Indians SPs Tomlin & Bauer seem to be getting very unlucky results. Both a widely unowned…are you optimistic about either? Do you see positive regression coming?

Paul Sporer: Ya I mean, they’re probably not mid-6.00 arms, but they’re not special, either. I just don’t really dig either. I especially don’t like the xFIP stuff with Tomlin bc that neutralizes HRs and he’s an HR machine every year

Bruce Bocce: Thinking about dealing a starter for a speed only guy in AL OBP league. Dyson, Rajai, etc. Is such a person worth a Salazar, or is it more a JC Ramirez/Jordan Montgomery situation? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: This is one of those where league dynamics matter more. Can you get one of them for Ramirez or Monty? If so, then that’d be great. But it might cost a Salazar type and if the SB gains are worth it, then go for it

Tanaka: If there’s something wrong with me? Am I injured or just deteriorating? Or will I be ok?

Paul Sporer: Velo up, swinging strike rate up, walks not crazy; seems to just be struggling as opposed to hurt. Discussed him on the pod and actually tabbed him as someone you could buy low since the price will be dirt cheap

Leon: Can you rank these OFs for OBP league? Fowler, Buxton, Zimmer, and Broxton? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Fowler, Broxton, Zimmer, Buxton

JD15: Who is that Lamet guy in SD? I had never heard of him before yesterday. Any reason I should keep an eye on him?

bl27: I already love Dinelson Lamet, you ?

Paul Sporer: Legit prospect. Sits 94-95 mph. Three pitches. Lotta swing and miss, some walk issues; probably not going for him in 10 teamers, but everywhere else he could be an option (probably need to be one of those teams that have been decimated by SP injuries to get him in 12-team)

Hold the Odor: Thanks for the chats!! I have Schoop at MI. Drop Herrera for Taylor or Lowrie? Or stay put?

Paul Sporer: Lowrie

Ichabod: Jose Abreu or Carlos Carrasco?

Paul Sporer: Carrasco

Eric: Are you starting E. Santana vs. HOU in his next start?

Paul Sporer: Yeah

Jason: Jonathan Villar or Yoan Moncada in a keeper league? Or are they the same guy?

Paul Sporer: Moncada probably has more market value in a dynasty since hasn’t really failed yet

ChicagoCardinal: Cespedes or Pollock in a redraft?

Paul Sporer: Yo

IK21: ROS: Piscotty or Keon?

Paul Sporer: Piscotty unless I need speed

Rpo: Berrios for Bregman fair value?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I think so

Big Tuna: Should I be worried about Yelich in OPS league? I don’t wanna sell low, but maybe he doesn’t have the ceiling we thought he did

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll still get near last year’s mark

Matt: How would you handle Price coming back from injury? Throw him right into the lineup, or wait to see if he’s still effective for a start or two before putting him back in?

Paul Sporer: I put guys in when they return, especially top flight guys like Price

Matt: WHo is Paul Spore, and why are you Sporer than he?

Paul Sporer: lol

JD15: Buy the dip in Thames? Feel like he has solid enough peripherals to back up what he done. Try and take advantage of people who were honking flash in the pan?

Paul Sporer: Would love to scoop him

Eno Sarris: BEER ISNT A SANDWICH!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Paul Sporer: lol

Hannah Hochevar: o/u 5 home runs allowed by Salazar today? NB: he’s not scheduled to pitch.

Paul Sporer: lolololol under, but still 3

Ichabod: Matz is a Top X pitcher ROS?

Paul Sporer: Is he back yet? I’d say 50

Anthony: Are Morton, or even Godley 10-team relevant?

Paul Sporer: Possibly bc of the injury decimation. They’re at least streamers

Tom: Can you name a few of the Best Buy low SPs in each league right now?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-456-…

Bobby: You in on Ross in a 10-teamer?

Paul Sporer: I imagine this is Tyson?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t draft him bc I didn’t have any real clue when he’d come back, but he’s ahead of schedule so I’m eager to see what he does

Kostya: I play in a strange league with rentals. I just traded 10 games of Mike Trout for #1 waiver priority in order to grab Dinelson Lamet. Good move, or great move?

Paul Sporer: Sure?! Really tough to get a feel for that without being in the league

Grant: Re: Castellanos: $10 in an Ottoneu Fangraphs Points league and I am targeting him in a trade. Considering Desmond (18) + others for Tanaka (19) + Castellanos.

Paul Sporer: I can get behind that

Steve: Blackmon for Trea Turner and Jose Ramirez fair in 12 team dynasty? Which side?

Paul Sporer: yeah, I’d do that for Blackmon

Paul Sporer: Prefer the pair

Andrew: Dealing Kershaw ($41) for Sale ($26) in a keeper? $4 inflation and the most expensive pitchers are typically in the low $40s

Paul Sporer: I see what you’re going for there. Take the savings without TOOO much difference in production

Texas Dolly : You a fan of Whit Merrifield? He’s been quietly good the past few weeks.

Paul Sporer: playing time and doing a bit of everything, so I don’t mind him in deep leagues

H2h points: Trade leake for VV in 12 team points or is this the wrong format to make that deal

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it’s not the best format for it. Leake usually excels in Pts, right?

Larry David: Anibal got an upgrade in The Show?!

Paul Sporer: LOL he got moved to SP, I think

Paul Sporer: but ya

Paul Sporer: he should be a common

AroundtheHorn: My infield is Pujols/CDavis, LeMahieu, Aldemys and KSeager. At what point should I start to freak out?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, I wouldn’t be too worried with that crew

Rudy: Hi Paul! Thanks for the chat. In a 9 team roto, I’m like 4th in steals (I have Betts, Hamilton and Xander as my basestealers after getting Hamilton 2 weeks ago.) I’m also dead last in homers and RBI. Would you trade away Hamilton right now for Justin Upton/Souza, or wait until Hamilton gets some more steals then deal him? Sorry for the long question!

Paul Sporer: That deal works. Definitely like getting two power-first bats

KC: You buying Sonny Gray rounding into form?

Paul Sporer: I am, got something on him coming up

Alex : How are you feeling about Cotton returning? Think he’s worth an add in a deep 12-teamer.

Paul Sporer: Loved him coming into the year and not off the train about a few bad starts

Steve: Charlie Blackmon for Trea Turner in 12 team keeper. Who ya got?

Paul Sporer: Favor Blackmon in a vacuum

KB: OPS league- Severino/Springer or Tanaka/Stanton?

Paul Sporer: Prefer Side B, but it’s a fair deal

Bless You Boys: Is it safe to use Tanaka tonight?

Paul Sporer: I have a hard time sitting him even in the face of the ugly numbers

Paul Sporer: Those asking about Lamet, Jeff took a look at him: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/quick-looks-lamet-mejia/

Big Tuna: Re: Frazier. Do you prefer him to Harrison for fantasy? Is the difference that large?

Paul Sporer: Greatly prefer Harrison

Jason: . hg ;pu,uyu;’. b. My daughter typed that. Think she was wondering if Starlin Castro is back to being a top 50 fantasy player for now and the future?

Paul Sporer: LOL, tell her that Top 50 seems high, but I dig Castro so I’m not necessarily looking to sell off this big start

Jeru the damaja: Who do you think has the higher ceiling for the next 3-4 seasons – Glasnow or Berrios?

(takes a min or so to build up…but oh so good!)

Paul Sporer: Berrios for sure. Song is fire

Tony: Hadn’t realized that Shark ran a 44/1 K/BB this month… I see he’s ranked #54 and a “sometimes start” on your latest rankings… is he climbing?

Paul Sporer: Spot-Start, but yes he’s been great. His worst starts are at ARI and COL, though, so I’m still benching again at those venues

HARD WOOD: Trading away Alex Wood for Thames still smart move?

Paul Sporer: If you need power, yes

Trainman: Paul, how legit is this Marwin Gonzalez outburst? Could he push 20 homers?

Paul Sporer: Certainly possible with 11 banked, yes. As long as he’s playing, he’s going to be solid

Snowflake: Trade Schwarber for Hendricks?

Paul Sporer: if you need pitching, that’s fine

JT: Will the Reds trade Winker? Doesn’t seem like he can displace Duvall or Schebler.

Paul Sporer: No I don’t think they need to trade a young bat like that. More likely to move Duvall

Anthony: If Tanaka gets roughed up by Oakland tonight, is it time to drop him?

Paul Sporer: I mean, I hate to make a decision based on one start, but I totally get it

My boy: Does Sonny have top-20 potential, or has he settled into a lifetime (when healthy) 40-60 tier?

Paul Sporer: If you live in the 40-60 range, you can spike top 20. He’s showing some aspects that could push him up, but he’s not there yet

Miguel R: Would you trade Ervin Santana and Aaron Hicks for Wil Myers?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with that

scottyA: Is there a reason to be concerned about Manny Machado? .220 avg as we head into June is troubling… Are there any indicators that there’s an actual problem here?

Paul Sporer: Tiny BABIP, better plate skills, surge in Hard% rate; BUY-BUY-BUY

Jeru the damaja: Knowing your pseudo disdain for Glasnow and seeing some positive Berrios comments, I think I already know your answer! Hope you dig the track! 🙂

Paul Sporer: Correct 🙂

Wort: Adam Frazier’s BA is “empty”? He’s Andrew Beinintendi, for cryinoutloud!

Paul Sporer: LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

Paul Sporer: OK dude

Paul Sporer: You can ADD his ISO totals from the minors and they’re probably close to his .155 this year in the majors

Paul Sporer: Benintendi is so much better, it’s not even funny

Paul Sporer: But yes, consider them the same based on 100 PA

Shawn Spenstarr: Who would you rather have ROS in standard with OPS as an extra category: Nelson Cruz or JD Martinez?

Paul Sporer: Really don’t see much difference between them. JD is younger, but has had more injuries. They’re just so close

Brett: Does Gallo eventually take over in LF? Worth stashing in 12-Team OBP league?

Paul Sporer: His OBP is still pretty bad, too, so you have to protect him to roster him

Grant: Glasnow may be a monster… But I don’t see him as a “buy low” because I worry it takes a while to figure him out. Is this a fair approach?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s fair. I’m just not in on Glasnow personally

Mikey: Brad Hand worth a big FAAB bid?

Paul Sporer: Depends on your need for save, of course

Szczur Hernandez: Am I the only one that is laughing at moving Odubel Herrera to the leadoff spot for the first time all season the day after he gets a platinum sombrero? Are the Phillies #trustingtheprocess ?

Paul Sporer: Lotta teams move a struggler to leadoff to try and get em going

Grant: Worried about Ian Desmond, or just a slow start after a late start? *Super* low walk rates and a bad second half…

Paul Sporer: Just 99 PA with a new team, not really worried at all rn

Miguel R: Would you start Carlos Martinez today in Colorado?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Marc: Roog Odor gonna be okay?

Paul Sporer: Did a buy low hitters pod and included him. And I’m not even a huge Roogie fan generally, but he’s better than this

Grant: Mit Wherrifield

Tony: J-ACE-on Vargas or Jason Varg-ACE?

Paul Sporer: Varg-ACE

Tito : Have UT opening, Belt or Bourbon ROS?

Paul Sporer: Wait so Belt or get drunk?

Earned Runs Hurt: What’s going on with Quintana this year? Is there a history of guys sucking this bad while trade rumors swirl?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s a trade rumor thing. Couple brutal starts really pushing the ERA up. Skills are solid, I’d inquire re: buying

Goody: Gattis or Mesoraco rest of way?

Paul Sporer: Gattis

Gladys Knife: Is Avi Garcia finally falling off?

Paul Sporer: 3 hitless games, but 4 multi hit games out of 5 just before that

Trainman: Is Todd Frazier cooked?

Paul Sporer: Just don’t see anything that justifies the horrific triple slash so I’m willing to stay the course

PrettyOrdinaryNova: Listened to Sleeper and the Bust 462 and got to wondering: who wins in a Nova/Tanaka trade? Pts league with reduced W and L values.

Paul Sporer: Wouldn’t be a bad sell-high on Nova

Dane: Thoughts on Villar? Hold and hope for the best or sell and take what you can?

Paul Sporer: Hold on, he’s still got the HR/SB so if you can stomach the triple slash and see if he gets better, I’d stay the course

Paul Sporer: Guess I’m just gonna say “stay the course” to every Q, lol

Paul Sporer: used it twice in three questions

Grant: Are you starting Cotton against the Yankees?

Paul Sporer: Deep leagues

Porcho Villa: Is 2017 Rich Hill basically going to be 2017 Francisco Liriano?

Paul Sporer: In what respect?

Boss Hog: I’ve enjoyed Ryon Healy. Thank you.

Paul Sporer: Gotta credit Eno, I was just the megaphone. He got me to look deeper at him and then I became a fan and then couldnt’ shut up about him

Hannah Hochevar: Stormzy’s Shut Up is UK/Grime version of “I Don’t Think So Tim.” Hot chocolate and panini to go!

Paul Sporer: No idea what this means

Ed: Worry-o-meter on Villar? (1-10… 10 being the most)

Paul Sporer: 6? Like I said, HR/SB there and never expected the AVG to be great

Hannah Hochevar: Re: Salazar: You and Eno dishing good advice on the pod. How do we get Salazar to listen to it?

Paul Sporer: LOL not sure

Boss Hog: Byung is gonna bash the Park. Yes or No?

Paul Sporer: Is he coming up?

Max: Any worries about Gerrit Cole’s last start? Still a top ten SP for you ROS?

Paul Sporer: Not worried. I try not to overreact start-to-start. Still maddening that he’s not just a lockdown ace given his arsenal

Saul: Aaron Altherr: coming back to earth?

Paul Sporer: Haven’t checked in on his gamelog, but he was never going to stay as hot as he was

Paul Sporer: I think he had like a 40% HR/FB rate for a minute

Patty: Not sure if I asked this or not- Eduardo Rodriguez or Taijuan Walker in a dynasty?

Paul Sporer: That’s close. I lean Tai slightly

Porcho Villa: Would you cut C. Santana in a 12-teamer? Power hasn’t been there.

Paul Sporer: Seems like he always gets going around this time so I’d hang on a little longer unless you have a waiver guy you’re just really into

tip tipson : how many steals does Delino finish the season with? Does it make sense to have Dyson & Delino on the same AL 12 team league?

Paul Sporer: 30 and it could be overkill so see if you can deal for some improvements elsewhere on your team

Bbboston: Who’s you rather have clevinger or montgomery

Paul Sporer: Jordan Montgomery

Porcho Villa: Was offered Kluber and Cain for Verlander and Belt. Fair in a vacuum?

Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s fair. I’d take it

Mel: Your Odorizzi ranking seemed high to many. Still sitting tight on where you ranked him?

Paul Sporer: It’s less about the ranking number and more about the tier. I just think we know what we’re going to get from him so I always start him

Dan: Trade Springer, Villar and Robles for Trout? … we can keep prospects for free

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d get Trout

Mel: Rich Hill has been awful. Any reason for optimism?

Paul Sporer: Had a 2.77 ERA and K per inning before last start

Paul Sporer: It’s been 4 starts

Dan: Should i drink vodka tonight or stay sober?

Paul Sporer: Stay sober!

Dallas Keuchel: DL stint aside, can I keep this up?

Paul Sporer: Ya if the neck is fine as expected, I don’t see Keuchel really falling off

MarinerDan: If the Astros displace Fiers with Peacock, are you willing to ride with Brad?

Paul Sporer: Maybe in AL only

Grant: Are you totally out on Joc even as a platoon in deep leagues?

Paul Sporer: no he’s still deep league viable

Me: Just got Franco for Brad Hand in standard 5×5 but saves plus hold league 12-teamer. Good move?

Paul Sporer: Ya I like that

Andy: Why does Carlos Correa have ZERO steals?

Paul Sporer: Because he hasn’t been on first and run to second during a pitch or on second and run to third

Mike: Trade Bellinger and Brad Hand for Billy Hamilton if I need steals and am okay in saves? 10-team redraft.

Paul Sporer: Ya if the needs match, get B Ham

Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta get going for today

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much for coming out and asking a ton of questions. Gonna go full on marathon and clear the queue entirely in one of these very soon. Hit me up on Twitter @sporer if you still have questions. You can follow me on Snapchat at psporer and Twitch at twitch.tv/psporer24 where I’m always streaming baseball-related stuff and taking questions just like these in the chat

Paul Sporer: Have a good holiday weekend, yall!