Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 24th, 2019 by Paul Sporer May 24, 2019 Transcript is below! 12:59 Paul Sporer: Welcome, everyone! I’ve got my NFBC 2nd Chance League tonight, let’s talk some baseball!!! 12:59 Corbin Martin: How long is my leash in the rotation after back to back wet-fart starts? 1:00 Paul Sporer: Not too long in 10- and 12-teamers, especially bc HOU may move on 1:00 Ross: Who would you target if trying to trade Stroman in 18-team mixed? Looking for wins, saves, or average. 1:01 Paul Sporer: Let me cut these ones off right from the jump, it’s impossible to really answer bc I could say 3 names and end up with all of them on your own roster. It’s better to suggest names you’re targeting and then I can answer if that’s in the range (even that isn’t perfect, but much more useful) 1:01 Kenny: Is Amed Rosario worth holding on to in a 12 team mixed over some of the prospects being called up like Cavan Biggio? 1:02 Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m down to roll the dice on Biggio over Rosario. You can get Rosario or a Rosario-like substance off the wire down the line if Biggio flops 1:02 Sum: 10-team H2H points – who do you prefer ROS, Cesar Hernandez or Keston Hiura? thanks!! 1:03 Paul Sporer: They’re kinda the same, no? Seems like Hiura’s upside would be Hernandezian. I’d stick with Hernandez 1:03 John: I’ve been holding Josh James all year in hopes that he’d get back into the starting rotation. Has that ship sailed for 2019 or is there still a chance? 1:04 Paul Sporer: Ship hasn’t sailed. Corbin Martin hasn’t been great. He’s allowed just 2 ER with 20 Ks in his last 13 IP, too 1:04 Poncho: Is Yordano Alvarez is worth a stash in re-draft leagues, or only keeper leagues? I’d be dropping Wil Myers (a bench bat for me) to stash. 1:05 Paul Sporer: 100% in AL Only leagues and I’m down to stash in mixers. Myers isn’t doing anything to merit a roster spot 1:05 Zach: Small sample, but Griffin Cannings 17% swstr% is intriguing. Where would he be in your current rankings? 1:05 Paul Sporer: He’ll move up a bit in shallow spot start – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/may-starting-pitcher-rankings/ 1:05 Rocco: Is Lucas Giolito a MS pitcher from here on out? 1:06 Paul Sporer: Not from here on out. He’s definitely moving into the US tier, but I don’t have his new rank defined just yet. 1:06 Steve: What’s Matt Carpenter worth in a dynasty league? 1:06 Paul Sporer: Not sure, you’d have to ask your league and see what they’re offering. You’d need to find an interested party in contention I imagine 1:07 Rocco: Within ___ weeks, LeClerc will resume the Texas closer role? Please fill in the blank 1:07 Paul Sporer: 4 1:08 Anders: When Yordan Alvarez gets the call, who would you drop between H. Dozier, Eloy, and Rodgers? H2H points 1:09 Paul Sporer: Hmmm, not sure I’d drop any of them, especially if Eloy keeps getting on track 1:09 Trump: Pick two to stash Yordan Alvarez, Willie Calhoun, and Luis Urias? 1:09 Paul Sporer: Alvarez and Urias, gotta go with the healthy players 1:09 LGM: 2nd chance best offense ROS- D. Murphy, Travis Shaw, Sano? 1:09 Paul Sporer: Murph 1:10 Desmond: 12 team H2H points dynasty, deep rosters.. I’m competing but my SP is awful. There is none available on waivers. Would you move Hoskins, Royce Lewis and Kopech and Kristian Robinson for Degrom, Carrasco, and Minor? 1:10 Paul Sporer: Ya that seems to work for a MASSIVE infusion of pitching if your SP Is awful 1:11 Rocco: Puig has been super disappointing — do you hold or cut bait? 1:11 Paul Sporer: I’m trying to hold, but league size certainly matters. If it’s a 10-teamer, I understand moving on 1:11 Kenny: What would be a reasonable return for Archer in a 12 team deep dynasty league? Would you do it for Josh Donaldson? 1:12 Paul Sporer: I would take JD if he were available to me 1:12 Rosebud Basselopes : Fantasy, dynasty for life format, Josh Bell and Mookie for Trout, which side wins? 1:13 Paul Sporer: Bell/Betts win IMO. I can be swayed that there’s a difference between Betts & Trout, but it’s not a Bell-sized one 1:13 BlueBirds: Would you trade Michael Chavis + Caleb Smith for Charlie Blackmon in a 20 team keep forever points pool 1:14 Paul Sporer: I don’t think I would, no. 1:14 John: Following up on the Josh James question, would Houston have to send him down to stretch him out or could he transition to the rotation quickly? Thanks. 1:14 Paul Sporer: Not sure on that, tbh. I feel like they could avoid sending him down given how they regularly give him multi-inning stints 1:15 Sugar Shane: 15 team points league. I have Alonso/O’Hearn rotating in and out of my 1B slot. Is it worth putting in a FAAB bid for Palka or Kevin Cron so I can drop one of these bums? 1:16 Paul Sporer: I’m not sure they wouldn’t also be rather bummy, but if you want to see if Cron can carry his minor league insanity over, that’s fine 1:16 Jasmine: If you have to own one Mariners’ RP right now for saves ROS, who do you roll with? 1:16 Paul Sporer: JJ Putz? Kaz Sasaki? 1:17 Paul Sporer: Honestly, I’d go Elias or Brennan 1:18 Bob: Trade for the future vs. now: I trade Trout, Moustakas, and Arrieta. Receive Soto, G Torres, and M Gore. Thoughts? 1:19 Paul Sporer: Two young bats who’ve shown premium talent at the big league level is what you want for Trout, so this seems viable. The thing too is that this could feasibly be better for rest of season, too, depending how Moose does 1:19 Vladito Burrito: Eugenio Suarez for Alfredo Simon—who says no 1:19 Paul Sporer: Not Detroit lol 1:19 Rocco: What do you think about a couple guys who started off hot, but have recently cooled — H. Dozier, A. Meadows? Are they strong starters from here on out? 1:20 Paul Sporer: We knew they’d have cool down periods, but I still like both ROS. The season has ebbs and flows. I don’t think either is a stone cold fraud, so I’m not looking to run away based on their cold spells after elite starts 1:20 que paso: house swap for two weeks, you in Toronto, me in Austin. I have three kids, their bedtime around 7. thanks looking forward to it 1:21 Paul Sporer: LOL, they’re staying up to 10 watching baseball and playing MLB The Show with me. Charlotte is annoying and will try to eat everything you have, if you so much as move in bed after about 4 AM, she’ll sprint to the kitchen thinking it’s breakfast time lol 1:21 Penn, Teller: $1 giolito and $1 Yandy too much to give up for unkeepable Moncada in al only obp, right? 1:22 Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t really think Moncada is going to out-earn them rest of season. 1:22 Luke: Marcell Ozuna and Gerrit Cole are both due for some positive regression right? Was offered a deal involving both recently. 1:23 Paul Sporer: Ya I have zero concerns about Cole, easy buy if anyone’s selling. Ozuna’s StatCast box is blood red, so I like him too… open to scooping both 1:23 Paul Sporer: BTW, what I mean by StatCast box is the little snapshot in the upper right of their Savant page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/marcell-ozuna-542303?stat… 1:24 Pitching sucks: Would you drop Turnbull for Lance Lynn this week? 1:25 Paul Sporer: For Lynn’s 2-start? I dunno… I know Turnbull isn’t a sub-3.00 ERA guy, but I don’t want to just outright cut him 1:25 Tucker: You had Pablo Lopez 71st in your May ranks. I’m curious: how different would your ranks look if you ignored wins/losses (which I’m assuming you’re not)? Skills wise (K, ERA, WHIP, etc) Pablo’s gotta be higher than 71st, right? 1:25 Paul Sporer: Couldn’t tell you his W-Ls to save my life 1:28 Paul Sporer: I think around May 1st, I saw him as a near-auto start at home and spot-start depending on the road matchup. Now I’m more inclined to usually start Lopez, but he was only 5 spots from the US tier 1:28 Stick to Sporer-tzball: Last night I received a trade offer in a fairly deep 12 team mixed keeper league ($150 of player contracts can be saved) of my $9 Marquez for Goldy and Hamels (neither of which is keepable). I jumped out of bed and hit accept before I can do any research. Am I missing anything? 1:30 Paul Sporer: No I think I’d be accepting that pretty easily, too. The key is if you believe Goldschmidt will be better and I absolutely do. If he’s a high-.800s OPS guy rest of way, I think he matches or bests Marquez in overall value and then Hamels is essentially a throw-in 1:30 Frank: Does Tapia play every day when Blackmon is out? 1:31 Paul Sporer: Knowing their dumb asses, they’ll bring Cargo back or something. But ya if the calf is a longer term situation, it seems Tapia would eat up some of that time and go from platoon to full-timer 1:31 Daniel: You have Mike Minor at 45 in those May SP rankings, where would you put him right now? 1:31 Paul Sporer: Not sure yet, but I’m re-ranking in a week 1:32 Scott: Hey Paul, just wanted to let you know first that my buddy is getting into OOTP because of your boosting it, so well done there. Second, I’m at my wit’s end with Joey Votto. I can slot Bellinger at 1st so I don’t need him to improve, but I don’t think I can move him either. At this point, is it wise to drop him and grab a keeper prospect off waivers? 1:34 Paul Sporer: Yesss, I love OOTP. Perfect Team mode has been a game-changer. I totally understand the frustration with Votto. I’m not sure there’s a major rebound incoming. If it’s a 10- or even 12-teamer, I understand cutting him 1:34 Pooh Bear: If you can buy low on Matt Carpenter, are you? 1:35 Paul Sporer: Ya I would give it a go – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-10-biggest-fallers-in-2nd-chance-… and https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/whats-up-with-matt-carpenter/ 1:35 John: Hey Paul – would you buy low on E. Rod? Or are you frustrated with his inconsistency? 1:35 Paul Sporer: He is absolutely maddening and yet I can’t seem to quit him. I’m certainly down to buy if the price is right. Skills are strong and team context definitely works! 1:35 Dave: How much of what Woodruff is doing is sustainable? 1:37 Paul Sporer: A fair bit. I think his mid-3.00s ERA/low-1.20s WHIP is absolutely sustainable. Misses bats, doesn’t walk too many guys, three pitches. Sign me up. I was a fan coming into the season and have seen nothing to push off from him 1:37 rancho relaxo: commish in my league (kind of a prick) grouses on our league message board to no end every time I make a trade, chastising the other manager for getting hoodwinked or whatever. He’s in fourth, I’m in second, so it’s clearly strategic. Advice? 1:38 Paul Sporer: Ewwww that’s lame as hell. My advice would be to win this year and bounce. A commish who does shit like that seems like he could be down for any amount of shady shit (including vetoes) 1:39 Seth: Who do you prefer between Bieber and Berrios on DraftKings? 1:39 Paul Sporer: Gotta go Berrios for matchup, IMO. 1:39 Orange: Hey Paul, happy friday. What’s going on with Trevor Bauer? Are you worried about him? 1:42 Paul Sporer: My worst fears have been realized with Bauer. My concern on him in spring was his penchant for tinkering. I was worried he’d over-tinker himself down a level from where we were drafting him. However, that does mean he could tinker himself back into a groove again as well. I’m just holding at this point 1:42 Anonymous : I dated Natalie Portman 1:42 Paul Sporer: Moby, gtfoh, man. I told you to stop coming here if you aren’t going to ask baseball questions. 1:44 Kirk: Stock going down for Domingo Santana? Or are you still holding? 1:46 Paul Sporer: Feel like we knew he’d come back to Earth with a cold spell, but I don’t think he’s more May than April, but rather the volatility itself. If it’s a roto league, I’m riding this cold spell out 1:46 LGM: Will Laureano impress with his bat a\in addition to his arm, or is he Defense first? 1:48 Paul Sporer: He’s definitely defense-first, but the question now is if he’s defense-only. I thought there was more punch in the bat when I was buying in all over the place in March. 1:48 Polly: Who gets the call for Houston if Marin gets the boot from the rotation? 1:51 Paul Sporer: Could see James getting a look and maybe throw McHugh back in there 1:51 spacelasagna: Ok to give up on Aguilar at this point? 12 teamer, someone dropped Yandy, was thinking I’d rather stash him and just wait a few days. 1:51 Paul Sporer: Ya I’ll take Yandy over Aguilar 1:51 Aladdin : Why can’t David Dahl accumulate some counting stats? 1:52 Paul Sporer: No idea, he’s been so maddening. He’d be absolutely nothing this year if he didn’t have that .432 BABIP 1:52 BigTuna: I have a glut of CI (Olson, Goldy, Devers, C. Santana, Murphy). With Cruz locked into my UTIL when he’s back, I need to trade one of those guys. Who’s your least favorite in a 12 tm OPS league? 1:53 Paul Sporer: My least favorite is Murph bc he’s been annoyingly bad, but you might be better off trying to trade someone who’s going to garner the most in the market, which would be Goldy or Cruz. Or maybe even Devers with his start 1:54 Brood550: Is Cease up for the series against KC? 1:56 Paul Sporer: That’d be cool. He can be called up anyyyy minute now it seems: 29% K, 9% BB, 3.38 ERA, and 1.38 WHIP in 40 IP at AAA. A .370 BABIP is boosting the WHIP a bit, I think he could be something mixed league-worthy once he gets the call 1:57 KC: Does Kimbral sign as soon as the draft compensation drops off? 1:57 Paul Sporer: I’d think very soon after, yes. I’m riding my Kimbrel share out at least a week or so after the draft 1:59 Forrest Whitley: Yo, Paul, Gotta think I’ll be up soon. But how soon is soon? 2:00 Paul Sporer: It’s not gonna be that soon with a 12.21 ERA and 2.05 WHIP 2:00 Prospector: Do you have any tips to help distinguish the prospects who might continue stealing in MLB vs. those that shut down their run game upon reaching the show? 2:00 Paul Sporer: Best you could go off would be the MLB team running tendencies 2:01 Dave: Made bad decisions so far picking which relievers to churn and which to keep. Is it too early to punt on saves and ride Pressley, Buttrey, and similar for ratio help, or would you be spend another 4-6 weeks speculating on the Newcombs and Workmans and Kelleys of the world? (12-team mixed league, active owners) 2:01 Paul Sporer: That all depends on the saves breakdown in your league standings, tbh, and how plausible it is to get some pts from continuing the grind 2:01 BigTuna: Jose Martinez has OK production but his statcast numbers are good. In a 12 tm OPS is he just a fringe starter or locked in every week play? 2:02 Paul Sporer: Still a fringe starter bc of the playing time, but I have a hard time cutting him bc the performance has been so good 2:03 Rocco: I have too many SP’s — Kershaw, Greinke, Marquez, Carrasco, Hill, Giolito, Ryu, Kluber. All have been great (ex-Kluber), but each have a particular issue as well (age, injury history, home field, etc.). Any player here where you see more value via trade vs. future production? Thank you Paul 2:05 Paul Sporer: Several of them would be big assets in the market. I think you just need to test your market and see where you can really improve by trading one. I think I’d ride it out with Ryu and Giolito. The market is likely to deliver on Kersh, Marquez, Carrasco, and Marquez so work from there 2:05 Pete : Where do you stand on this Austin Riley phenomenon – buy, sell or hold (generally)? 2:05 Paul Sporer: I mean, sell at this moment bc he’s off the charts 2:06 Fangraph’s Lurker: ROS Byron Buxton or Nick Castellanos? 2:06 Paul Sporer: I think it’s gotta be a speed v. power question, tbh 2:06 Prospector: Franimal over under 40 dongs this year? 2:07 Paul Sporer: I’ll go just under 2:08 Tim: Who is one player that you own no, or very little, shares of but really wish you did? 2:11 Paul Sporer: Mondesi. Can legitimately say I liked him pre-ascent, jumped early on last year’s surge, but then balked at 2019 investments as the price soared. The plate skills are still poor, but I also loved Alfonso Soriano in his day 2:11 Prospector: Andrew Heaney pitching tier? SSS? 2:12 Paul Sporer: Ya I think that’s right. 2:13 Luke: Who’s a better pickup for Prospect-ageddon 2: Naylor, Cron or Biggio 2:13 Paul Sporer: I like Biggio most 2:15 brian: Kris Bryant in the first round next year? 2:15 Paul Sporer: If he continues this season (another HR today), then ya, he’ll be a 1st rounder. Hell, even with his “down” season, he was still a consistent 3rd rounder 2:15 Prospector: Has Mad Max Kepler finally arrived? Do you think he gets to 30 HR in this environment? 2:19 Paul Sporer: Ya he could pop 30, though he doesn’t have much margin for error against righties since he’s so bad v. lefties 2:19 Craig: Soroka or Paddack for remainder of season? What are the expected shut down points for each? 2:21 Paul Sporer: No idea on shutdown dates. I think those sorts of things will get pushed depending on team performance. I’ll just take the more talented guy and worry about any potential shutdown stuff down the road, so gimme Paddack 2:22 Phil: Is Lance Lynn a must start? In other words, would you start him at home against an above average offense? 2:23 Paul Sporer: No, I’m still curating his innings if I’m rostering him and sitting him against tough opponents, home & away 2:24 Need pitching: You see Mize or Manning coming up anytime soon? And what about my boy Darwinzon? 2:26 Paul Sporer: We could see one of the Tigers up in the summer, but I wouldn’t bet on it (meaning I wouldn’t stash them in redraft leagues or anything). Darwinzon hasn’t been particularly sharp in AA, so even if he were called up, I think it’d be to relieve 2:26 Pat’s Bat: Just trade Bassit for Musgrove 2:26 Paul Sporer: I like it! 2:26 Mackel: Would you swap Blackmon for Goldschmidt in a standard 5×5 league + OBP + SLG? 2:27 Paul Sporer: I would, yes, but Blackmon just got hurt so that might not be available 2:28 Jake Junis: Am I droppable in AL Only? 2:28 Paul Sporer: Yes… yes you are 2:28 Chalotte is very cute: Trade Paddack for Matt Carpenter? 2:29 Paul Sporer: I feel like Paddack could draw more than a buy-low 33-year old. I just don’t feel like this is buying low on Carp. It’s not EGREGIOUS, but I think you’re selling short 2:29 Brian Collins : Would you trade Rizzo for Montas and Riley? I have Gallo to put at 1B and kind of need an extra arm. Thoughts? Thanks Paul 2:30 Paul Sporer: That works given your needs, plus you could feasibly flip Riley for even more pitching help if necessary 2:30 Adam: Can Josh Bell keep this up? Seems legit 2:31 Paul Sporer: Ya, not at a 55 HR pace, but I think he can be a .900+ OPS rest of way. I’m a fan for sure 2:31 Swamp Thickly: When/if Alex Reyes gets called up, is he a top 40 SP rest of the way? 2:32 Paul Sporer: No, he’d have to show something to get that kind of acclaim. He’d be a shallow spot start at best (around the 80s or so) until we saw something 2:32 Dave: Could you rank Paddack, Archer, Musgrove, and Lyles? 2:32 Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/may-starting-pitcher-rankings/ 2:33 Jeff: ROS Freeman or Goldy? 2:33 Paul Sporer: Freef 2:33 GallenOfGas: Goldschmidt for Cole? (Dynasty league) 2:33 Paul Sporer: This works 2:34 Yum Yum: is Walker and Soto for Bell fair offer (or even too much)? 2:34 Paul Sporer: Christian Walker I assume? That’s definitely fair 2:36 Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming my NFBC 2nd Chance League (starting at 10 pm CT) on Twitch later today if you want to see how that goes. Have a great weekend!