Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 17th, 2019

Paul Sporer: It’s time to talk some baseball!!!

Mark Shapiro: What would you do with Colin Mchugh in 12 team dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: I’m not against cutting him. I think he’ll be solid out of the pen, but I’m not sure how useful a decent non-saves RP is in 12-teamer

hscer: Talked a lot about Tigers on #688 but didn’t hear Goodrum’s name…I’m still holding as a bench bat in some places, but not sure how bright that is all else equal

Paul Sporer: Did a podcast with Alex Fast of PitcherlIst (out later today) and Goodrum gets some love. I think there’s some upside. He deserves better than we’ve seen

Vern Rapp: Expectation for Soroka ROS? He can’t be this good, obviously, but is low 3.00s ERA and sub 1.10 WHIP feasible?

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely possible. I’d eye more of a 3.40/1.15 and hope he can beat that, but I really like him

oswald2319: With matt olson back do you think the A’s are gonna go on a hot streak– Fun fact at one point the 2002 A’s (Yes those A’s) were 5 games under .500 and they still won 103 games

Paul Sporer: They certainly could get their offense going in the same direction soon

person 1: Would you rather have Pence or Mancini ROS?

Paul Sporer: Mancini has more PT on lock so that’ll be the tiebreaker

Fangraph’s Lurker: 10 teamer, due to having 1 IL spot I’m in a roster crunch and can’t afford to gamble with both eloy jimenez and keston hiura. Who gets dropped? I intend to pick up one of minor, giolito, and M. perez

Paul Sporer: I mean, if you’re deciding between the two, I guess I’d take the healthy one. REEEEEAAALLLLYYYY hard to cut Eloy, though

vft: Should we be worried about Bauer? That walk rate is pretty gross

Paul Sporer: There’s no actionable worry. Just have to set it and forget it. But ya, the walk rate is a bit alarming

Fangraph’s Lurker: Weekly update: Ramirez still hasn’t remembered how to hit

Paul Sporer: Ya Jose Ramirez continues to struggle

Mateo: What prospect are you bidding the most on (who has been called up)? Riley, Hiura, Rodgers, Mercado, someone else?

Paul Sporer: We went deeep on that very topic on the latest pod: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-688-pro…

Larry Hutz: Willie Calhoun for real? Seems like he’s adjusted his approach this season

Paul Sporer: Big fan of his bat and if he can get regular PT, I think he can breakthrough. I was all over him to breakout last year and I’m chronically a year early so it makes sense that he’d go off this year lol

Dave_W: What do you think happens with Tyler O’Neil?  He doesn’t have anything left to prove at AAA and is destroying the ball (7hr in last 12 games).   How does he end up moving forward?

Paul Sporer: Kinda has to wait for a spot to open up.

Matt: Which “best reliever on team” do you think is most likely to start getting saves? T Rogers or T Buttrey?

Paul Sporer: Buttrey

Pat: How worried should I be about Jose Ramirez? He hasn’t hit at all for closing in on 5 months…

Paul Sporer: This is such a weird myth I’m seeing purported elsewhere. It’s HALF that — Sept, Apr, half of May … he had a .823 OPS w/5 HR, 4 SB in Aug and 1.164 OPS in July… how is it five months?!

James Benoit: What are you doing if you have big tickets like Josh Bell, Pete Alonso, and George Springer on your team? Sell high, or hold and ride the wave?

Paul Sporer: There is no one way to play it. Depends what your team is like and what you can get.

TG: Ten team, 25-man rosters. Are Cano, Daniel Murphy, Winker and Puig still rosterable? Brutal starts for all of them.

Paul Sporer: It’s been roughhhhh, with a 3-man reserve, I can see moving on from them in this order: Winker, Cano, Murphy, Puig … with 5+ reserve, I’m trying to hold a bit longer

JT: Dynasty: if 2b is a position of need, trade Adell for Hiura? PS: If you own Cesar Hernandez, is 2b a position of need?

Paul Sporer: That trade is totally fine, but I’m not sure 2B is a need with Cesar Hernandez, tbh

Oliver: Like most, need SP bad. In a 12 team h2h categories(obp) who should have the most value/ who should I be looking to move out of GPolanco Santana Soler FReyes

Paul Sporer: Franmil will bring you the most back

david’s dull: hey Sporer! what are we doing with David Dahl’s power outage?
You holding, buying, selling? Numbers look similar to last year but fb% way down. Im assuming launch angle aswell… Hoping for some self correction but getting impatient.

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely holding. It’s maddening, but I can’t just cut him. I’d even be open to scooping him in some scenarios

Seeds: Paul in a h2h league where you’re dominant on one side (pitching in my case), but underperforming on the other, do you trade from that strength to try and be more balanced or do you maintain the strength and lock up pitching most weeks and hope things break your way in a couple of cats on the other side for a couple of weeks come playoff time? I lean towards maintaining the strength but would love your opinion!

Paul Sporer: Yes, I tend to agree here about keeping the strength. Especially bc one trade isn’t likely to sway the offense entirely and could cut into your strength

Mike: How would you rank these stashes for ROS:  Luzardo, Cease, Whitley

Paul Sporer: I looove Luzardo, but with his health I gotta slot him third this year, espec. when we’re already dealing with the volatility of rookie SPs: Cease, Whitley, Luzardo

JT: Am I wrong to believe in Martin Perez?

Paul Sporer: You are not, no! There’s a lot of support for his surge

Shrek: I’m in an obp league and need mi help.  Being offered moncada, ozuna, and haniger or bogaerts for Harper.  I don’t really trust the guys but it’s a lot… Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Oh you gotta do that. I’d do Moncada, Ozuna, Bogaerts personally. Who are you cutting to take on the three?

Pie: Got offered Corey Seager, Lester, and Blake Parker for Pete Alonso in a 15 team OBP dynasty. I need pitching help, is this a suitable return?

Paul Sporer: If you’re a Seager believer, that passes the sniff test for me

Slapshot: Back of OF question – Corey Dickerson (once healthy) or Adam Jones ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’d right it out with Jones

Tony: Rank prospect call ups  Kiura, Rodgers, Reilly ROS

Paul Sporer: Hiura, Riley, Rodgers – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-688-pro…

Martin: ROS, Domingo or Mallex

Paul Sporer: That’s a needs-based one… pwr for Domingo, spd for Mallex

Bring Back DeSpaniel Hair: Also, Buxton breaking out? Drop Puig for him?

Paul Sporer: Ya if Buxton is available, that seems like a shallower league so I’d be fine making that move

TheJoser: Do you have any hope for Folty? Assuming deep rosters, is he worth stashing on the bench in hopes he turns it around?

Paul Sporer: He’s been BRUTALLLLLLL, if you believe he’s healthy or will get healthy, I can see stashing, but I’m not really diving in

Haymaker: Best guess for Jorge Polanco’s end of season numbers? You buying the breakout?

Paul Sporer: .290/20/7-10 (but he needs to improve his success rate to push the double digits SBs)

Guest: Are you holding Pablo Lopez in h2h?

Paul Sporer: Depends how many reserves. There’s some good stuff underneath the hood that suggests he can get a good bit better

marichal: Zac Gallen:  Get call up soon? How good will he be?

Paul Sporer: Ya I feel like he has to be up soon. As for how good he’ll be, I’d tab him as a 3.70/1.25 potential upside and work from there

ds: What FAAB percentage would you drop on Yordan Alvarez at this point?

Paul Sporer: This week when everyone is focused on the bounty of prospects already called up, I think you can get him pretty cheaply (8-10%?)

Donjuan: ETA for Y Alvarez and Z Gallen?

Paul Sporer: Zero clue. I just don’t take a stab at these bc it’s impossible to know. Even the Longenhagens and McDaniels of the world don’t know bc it can flip on a dime, so I don’t even bother trying here.

Bring Back DeSpaniel Hair: Paul! Please help! I cannot swing a freaking trade of either Nelly Cruz or Pete Alonso. With one until slot in a shallow H2H points league, do I cut one loose?

Paul Sporer: No, you can’t just cut one

Cash: Eloy’s played 3 rehab games, should be back this weekend, if not, by Monday.

Paul Sporer: This is probably re: the Hiura/Eloy question… damn I just don’t know how I’d cut either

Dave_W: Aside from the troubling groundball rate, Danny Jansen looks like the victim of horrible luck.  Do you agree and what do you think we can expect moving forward?

Paul Sporer: There’s some bad luck in this horrific run and he certainly can’t be WORSE, so if someone wants to gamble on him very cheaply as their C2 and ride it out, I can see that. He’s still hitting it hard and the .224 BABIP will no doubt improve

Andrew: ROS Mercado or Dyson?  Why does no one love Dyson?

Paul Sporer:

 

Paul Sporer

@sporer

 

Jarrod Dyson out here hitting .290 with an .810 OPS, 11 SB, AND 3 HR!?! Ok, go off.

16 May 2019

Paul Sporer: (I’d go with Dyson, btw)

Daniel: Would you sell Bell high for Carpenter and Paddack if you could? Redraft 12 Team

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s a legitimate sell-high to get both of those guys

jumpin’ jack flash: Paul: thanks for the chats!  I’m in a deep kpr pts. league (15 teams, 13 kprs.)  and am wondering if I should keep A. Brooks as one of my SPs.  My options to replace him are Fiers & Thornton, and not much else.  IPs really matter, with standard deductions.  Ws & Ls don’t.

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out! I’d prefer Thornton of this trio

Nice: How much playing time does Yordan Alvarez get once he’s called up? Do they need to trade someone?

Paul Sporer: Once called up, they will play him. They’re not going to call him up to play a few times a week. I imagine Tyler White’s clock is ticking (78 wRC+) and that’s Alvarez’s avenue

Haymaker: You think Hiura sticks and produces or struggles and goes back down when Shaw is ready to return? How optimistic are you for Hiura in 2019?

Paul Sporer: I have no idea, lol. I *wish* I could predict something like that well enough to *know* what someone’s going to do. He’s going to get a real shot to go off, but if he keeps striking out like crazy, this first run could be a little shorter. Shaw isn’t toast. If the injury was really holding him back, then there’s reason to believe he’ll get back on track once he returns

Kevin: Do you like castellanos or Braun ROS?

Paul Sporer: Casty

Oliver: Worried about Nola at all? Look to buy low?

Paul Sporer: I do have some concerns. I’m recording the Fireside with Nick right after this chat and we’re discussing him. If I could buy comically low, I might go for it, but otherwise I’m laying off

Mikey: La Stella and Dyson for real?

Paul Sporer: I think Alex Fast keyed in on something big about La Stella’s power on the pod I’m posting later today so I think he can club another 12 or so homers with a solid AVG –

 

Alex Fast

@AlexFast8

 

At the beginning of 2018, the Angels lowered the home run boundary in RF. Theoretically, this would get LHH a few more taters. LHH like…

Tommy La Stella.

17 May 2019

… Dyson will remain a SB asset

Phillie Phanatic: #nickylopez

Paul Sporer: #nickylopez

PB: Try to sell Domingo German in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Only for a mint! I love Domingo!!!

Connor Joe Buck: Got Dylan Cease for $5 this week in Ottoneu. Will he be worth that this season?

Paul Sporer: There’s certainly a chance. He’s a bat-misser and should get a real opportunity relatively soon in Chicago

Connor Joe Buck: Is Gavin Lux worth targeting this year or wait until next?

Paul Sporer: You never know how health will break, but he’s seemingly a long way out for the Dodgers right now so I wouldn’t really start targeting him before he hits Triple-A

Cash: My partner is giving me Sh-t for bidding 23 of my remaining 116 on Willie Calhoun (out of 200, no 0 dollar bids). 13 team 5×5 24 starters 7 bench. What should I tell him?

Paul Sporer: He has a premium bat giving him major upside. It’s an aggressive bid, but that’s what it’ll take to get these potential gamechangers. I’d ask him for his counter on why he doesn’t want to bid and y’all can discuss it out. I wouldn’t just go fully against my co-manager

Batman: Any concerns with Khris Davis performance lately?

Paul Sporer: 0

gramsci p: why i cant customize anything on the website

Paul Sporer: What are you struggling with? There are many customizable things on the site.

Big Boy: Sam Gaviglo worth giving a shot in a 15 eager?

Paul Sporer: Are they throwing him in the rotaysh or you just looking for some quality RP innings? He’s been pretty great diving in on his slider (43% usage) so I think a 15-team is viable, particularly if you’re thinking/hoping he’ll take a rotation spot

Amy: Griffin Canning or Pablo Lopez worth grabbing?  Both were dropped this week.

Paul Sporer: Need league context on questions to give a legit answer

Slurve: What’s the hardest tool to improve for position players?

Paul Sporer: Probably the hit tool. I mean, you kinda got it or you don’t, so we don’t see a ton of guys just improve their hit tool without sweeping changes

Steve: 12 team keeper 6×6 w/ QS – Soroka for Paxton?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Paxton

Gildz: How good is Corbin Martin?  He worth big bucks in FAAB if you need some pitching?  Any comps/ upside comparison?  Thx Paul !

Gildz: Did my Corbin Martin question not go thru?  Curious your thoughts on him for ROS?  What kind of upside u think he has?  Thx Paul

Gildz: Corbin Martin upside Paul? Come on 1 time my man 🙂

Paul Sporer: Don’t repeat questions, y’all. I can’t get to ’em instantly. The queue is loaded. Your question went through, but it takes time

Mark: Thoughts on Yandy Diaz RoS in standard size an OBP keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Should be good. “Thoughts on” isn’t a question.

Dr. Funk: What to do with Stripling?  2 IP in last 2 weeks is killing me. Is he cuttable in 14 team league?  20 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Cry…. such a bummer that he’s out of the rotation. However, he should nab Maeda’s spot, right?

Amos: Renfroe…why do i love this guy.  is he going to pick it up?

Paul Sporer: I dunno. He is what he is. Seems to performing as we’d expect

Jim Leyland Palmer: After reading Eno’s article today, I feel like I should sell high on Domingo German. Agree?

Paul Sporer: Haven’t read his article

Jay Bruce is not afraid: Jp Crawford or Nicky Lopez Ros

Paul Sporer: Lopez for sure

Buff: Likelihood that MadBum is traded? And how much of a discount would you need to trade for him if desperate for pitching?

Paul Sporer: 85% likelihood, IMO. Discount from what? He seems to be performing in line with expectations (or above expectations for those who thought he was going to be trash)

Oliver: Loved Lazor Ramon to start the year but he’s been ok at the plate and not running. Time to monitor but move on?

Paul Sporer: Time to move on in most leagues. Fringe hold in 15-team mix, cut in anything shallower for now

Nate: Was Piscotty’s season last year an anomaly?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. He’s not THAT far from last year skills-wise. In fact, the HR/FB rate is about the only real difference

Anthony: Stripling or Zac Gallen ROS?

Paul Sporer: Stripling

Scottttttttt: You’re a Tigers fan right?  Was there signs of this with James McCann in the past?

Paul Sporer: There was not. A .455 BABIP is certainly a big factor

KC: You mentioned on the Pod that you’re looking to get some Travis Shaw shares next week. Are you a big believer that A) The injury was affecting him? b) He can’t be this bad? C) You can get him for cheap and it’s worth a flier to see what happens?

Paul Sporer: D) All of the Above

Ken Giles Right Hook: How concerned should we about Juan Soto? More K’s and his AB’s have not been pretty

Paul Sporer: I’ve got some concern, but nothing actionable. His swinging strike rate isn’t one that goes with a 28% K rate. I’d buy or hold

Bert: 10 team mixed 10 Keeper.  Sano a must add?

Paul Sporer: Not a must IMO

Quadrangular: “Can I get your thoughts on ____?” is implied, I believe

Paul Sporer: It’s still not a viable question, though. Thoughts on what? What do you want thoughts on? It’s far too vague to be useful

Rick Honeycutt: I traded Scherzer for caleb smith and carrasco.  Can carrasco find the consistency train and salvage my trade?

Paul Sporer: He’s been excellent over his last 6 starts. Carrasco seems to always find his numbers by season’s end. Trade should be fine

Travioli: Can Eflin keep this up all year or time to sell high? I liked how he pitched vs. MIL yesterday but FIP, xFIP has me worried

Paul Sporer: I just don’t think you’re going to get enough to really sell high. I’d just ride it out

Greg: I was worried about Thor’s lack of slider.  Traded him and Ryu for Bauer in a h2h points league with starter limits.  How’d I do?

Paul Sporer: I’m not gonna lie, that’s a bit much, IMO

James Benoit: Would you sell Springer for a struggling Soto and injured Paxton if you could get it?

Paul Sporer: I would, yes

Dodger Injury: La Stella, Rodgers and Austin Riley all on waiver wire. Can you rank them?

Paul Sporer: La Stella, Riley, Rodgers (don’t trust COL at all to play him)

Greg: In a keep forever – Chavis or Brandon Lowe?

Paul Sporer: Really a personal preference for me as I see ’em pretty similarly. I lean slightly to Lowe

Justin: Rizzo and Nola for Soto in keep forever?

Paul Sporer: Even in keep forever, that feels like a bit much

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta go record the Fireside! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!