Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 11th, 2018

Paul Sporer: It’s time to talk some baseball!! Let’s rollll!!

padres suck: My Bogaerts and Price for his Carrasco?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I don’t feel like Price should have to be in. The 1-for-1 seems good enough, but if you’re done with Price and need an ace, I can understand it

Rob: Paul help! I went bat heavy early in my 12 team 5×5 head to head categories league and my pitching is killing me! Sitting near the bottom currently. Is arenado for Scherzer crazy? Doable? Too much? Too little? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Very doable. I’d offer it up

Chippy: Would you move Corbin for JDMart in points dynasty? Worried about Corbin’s velo decline

Paul Sporer: Even if Corbin’s velo was fine, I’d do this

steve: Carp or Odor rest of season in a 10 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Despite not loving Carp, I’d lean toward him

weezy: So Rhys has struck out like Gallo for 3 weeks… cause for concern? Just a slump?

Paul Sporer: Just a slump, not too worried.

Reese: Was offered in a OBP/SLG keeper league my Hoskins for Matt Olson and Kingery after losing Seager. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I’m torn on that because I’m unsure about Kingery and OBP/SLG really favors Hoskins. It’s close, but I’m leaning no, try to get more

My team is awful: What do I do with Puig and Logan Morrison in a deep league?  Just have to ride it out?

Paul Sporer: Ya gotta wait it out. LoMo’s coming out of it in May (.840 OPS) and Puig just got back

Concerned Owner: What I do with Matt Olsen?

Paul Sporer: I think ya gotta ride it out. He hasn’t been a great, but he’s a hot streak away from turning it all around. It’s not like he’s lagging with a 24 wRC+ or anything

Cory: Hey Paul, my hitting is terrible and have been offered Smoak for Chase Anderson.  I have Bird coming back off the DL.  Would you bother?

Paul Sporer: Yes, because I don’t trust Bird Bones’s health and if he does stay healthy and rake, you can move one of the 1B for another bat at a different position

Yaz: You and nick pollock should do a podcast where you discuss the pitchers you’ve ranked the most differently from each other.   And discuss why.  A couple that jumped out to me because I own them – M. Fulmer and T. Ross.

Paul Sporer: I like that. Maybe we’ll get into that this Sunday

Deserate: Has Jon Gray won you over as a top 30 arm? Advanced metrics seem to speak career year ROS

Paul Sporer: Love Gray, but he’s too volatile for Top 30, in part due to Coors of course

Derek: Paul, Romero or Caleb Smith?

Paul Sporer: Not sure the skills are too different so I’ll go with better team and take Romero

Adam G: Will dustin fowler have an impact on fantasy teams this year? Heard he is getting regular playing time.

Paul Sporer: Yes, he was a reserve target for me in leagues but had to move on when he was sent down. I see some nice SB upside

steve: Who you dropping in a 10 teamer outta Taillon, Jon Gray or Beuhler?

Paul Sporer: I had Buehler ranked lowest on my update, but I can’t cut him right now so it’s probably Taillon. He’s least likely to get scooped immediately, IMO

Yaz: Has Luis Castillo turned the corner?  Back on track?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think we’ve seen some positives out of him. I’m hoping this is the start of a run

Deserate: Will Mikolas be a top 30 arm ROS?

Paul Sporer: Not quite top 30, but like Peak(e) Mike Leake: mid-3.00s ERA, great WHIP … #peakeleake

chris: Thanks for the chat Paul…look it has fantasy relevance, Roberto Osuna. I have him as a rental in a 12 tm dynasty that i’m contending in big time this season. Rostering a dead spot isn’t ideal. The FG piece yesterday paints a bleak outlook for him playing anytime soon. Safe to drop? or hold till MLB annoucnes something?

Paul Sporer: Definitely can’t see him on the field for a good while. If you don’t need the spot, let it ride out a little, but I can see moving on from him

Paul Sporer: Can you try to trade him for ANYTHING since it’s dynasty? Just be straight w/the other team and say I know the price is rock-bottom, but lemme get something

Dewey : Can Jed Lowrie keep this up?

Paul Sporer: I can see high-.800s OPS bottom line which means he’ll be worse than his current .979 OPS, but still v good. I buy him as a very skilled hitter, but the health is my real concern

Brett: Was offered Belt and Nola for my JD Martinez.  12 team roto OBP & K/9 league.  Do I take it if I need the pitching?

Paul Sporer: Ya, Nola’s a big arm to get for JD and having Belt thrown in w/OBP being counted is nice

Dewey : I have Archer, Castillo, Price, and Richards – tell me it will get better.

Paul Sporer: Castillo seems to be turning around and Richards only has the one awful start. I’m not as optimistic on Archer and Price (and I love Price in draft season)

Aqua Man : Robbie Ray threw pitches in water today. Should I be concerned?

Paul Sporer: LOL what?!

Rocco: Thanks for the great chat/advice.   Am I good to go with my Staff:  Snell, Clevinger, Hendricks, Newcomb, and Hill/Price?   Or should I try to get an Ace?   My batting is league best.

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome! I think you have a foundation, just stay diligent on the wire. Don’t need to trade for an ace just yet

SN: My Hanley for his G. Rich? Good, bad, or ugly?

Paul Sporer: That’s fair!

wadz: So…. Juan Soto

Paul Sporer: Nats 19 y/o prospect beasting and just got moved to AA

Rocco: Is Goldschmidt somebody to aggressively bid for here, or something might be wrong?

Paul Sporer: Wait, is he on the wire? Or do you mean trade for? I’d trade for him on a discount for sure

Greg: Any thought on Buxton going forward? I’m not sure how long I should hold onto him — drop him for Franchy?

Paul Sporer: He just came back, can’t drop him now. The raw talent is there, but he’s super-frustrating. You paid too high a price to just cut bait in May, though

Rocco: Is Suzuki a Top 5 Catcher ROS?

Paul Sporer: Never thought I’d be talking about Kurt Suzuki like this, but yes… absolutely

Oh, Tawny!: Sell high on Ohtani in 5×5 mixed, 10 teams? If so, suggested target level?

Paul Sporer: If it helps your team, yes. As far as target level, that’s impossible to answer bc I don’t know what your market will yield or what you need

George: I have Albies, Gleyber, and Odor in a 12 team H2H OBP and SLG league. Do I just drop Odor, or find room for him in my lineup? Can’t really trade him because everyone hates him in my league.

Paul Sporer: I can get behind cutting him in that format w/your situation

Allan: Paul, would you drop K Marte for Alen Hanson?  Marte isn’t running and doing much of anything…  Or is Hanson this week’s shiny penny?

Paul Sporer: Hanson fanboy here – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/post-hype-prospects-part-2/ https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/nfbc-sleepers/ so I’m here for it

Paul Spider: Hi Paul.

Paul Sporer: Hi Paul.

Oy: Tried unloading Stanton and Rizzo for Acuña and Vlad in a 20 team keeper league. He won’t budge. No question, just ugh.

Paul Sporer: Fair offer, but I totally understand it on his end, too. Maybe if one of Stanton/Rizzo was BEASTING and Acuña was still in the minors, but as it is right now, I get it

Tom AND Jerry: Should I do Bumgarner and Michael Brantley for Corey Seager in a dynasty league? Not contending this year.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I like that for a rebuild

Deserate: Would you say this fantasy rotation is good enough: CMart, McCullers, Tanaka, Godley, G Richards, Mikolas, Castillo, Taillon, Pivetta?

Paul Sporer: Seems pretty good almost regardless of league size, espec. if it’s a short DL stay for CMart

Mallex P. Keaton: Christian Villanueva has really cooled off and is now losing playing time. Drop for Maikel Franco as a UTIL in 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: I think Villa’s pop is real and there are tons of LH SPs in the West so when they’re heavy in-division, he’s good to go, but I’m good w/getting Franco (longtime Francophile here!)

Guest: Hey Paul. Do I drop Luchessi for Eduardo Rodriguez

Paul Sporer: Sounds good!

Jorge?: Is this Soler breakout for real?  What should I expect from him the ROS?

Paul Sporer: Definitely some realness to it. He’s destroying lefties, but that .520 BABIP will obviously sink. I see an .850ish OPS w/nice pop rest of way

Cal Varnson: Stroman worth a stash? he’s going to turn it around, right?

Paul Sporer: Worth a stash, yes, but as far as turning it around, it depends on his health which I’m very uncertain about

ThickTanPretzel: Looks like Sonny’s velo is starting to tic back up. You grabbing him off waivers yet, or think he’s closer to washed?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he’s washed, but I wasn’t really into him this year. Trying not to go full confirmation bias and claim a W, but I think he’s low-to-mid 4.00s rest of way

Paul Spider: Paul, as you know, the sleeper and the bust has a huge following. Was wondering if you had seen the posts on reddit that break down sleeper and the bust into “cliff’s notes” and if you were cool with it.

Paul Sporer: I have seen it and I’m cool with it! Hopefully it doesn’t lead to a bunch of people unsubscribing (at least download like Matthew Berry & Nate Ravitz used to say!), but it’s good work and I respect the hustle!

Willie hears ya,Willie dont care: Is R. Zimmerman droppable? 12 team H2H, OBP league

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m OK with it. That’s one of those where you have to be comfortable knowing that it could burn you if he heats up, but if you like someone else on the wire and need to cut him, I totally get it

Paul Sporer: My point is that I think too many ppl are afraid to cut guys in 10- and 12-teamers because of the what-if, but that’s the nature of leagues with more abundant waiver wires. You need to be churning a couple roster spots and you’ll take some majors Ls here and there. It’s a volume game, though. Hard to be patient with guys while this year’s breakouts are being plucked off the wire. I used to sit on my hands way too long in those formats

Chippy: Delino is something else!

Paul Sporer: The Dentist!! My 2017 teams are killin it with him, Franco, Manaea, and Teheran goin off, lol. Always a year early!

Parts + Gleyber: Byron Buxton will be okay again, right?

Paul Sporer: Has he ever really been THAT good. He hasn’t put up a .750 OPS season yet, let alone anything north of .800. OPS isn’t EVERYTHING, espec. w/a speedster, but nothing is promised with Buxton

May regrets: I dropped Maikel Franco on Apr. 23 after *years* of awaiting a breakout. How bad should I feel?

Paul Sporer: I feel you. Had him everywhere last yr. Clinging to one share this season

Stretch: When will Conforto turn it around….testing all of our patience?

Paul Sporer: I was 100% out on Conforto this year with the shoulder so I’m not sure he’ll turn it around – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-547…

Bud: Tanner Roark:  Does he keep it up?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’ll continue to be a solid all-formats arm

John: I feel like there’s too much movement with expert rankings. One week someone is loved and being told to acquire and after a bad start or two the narrative changes. Its a natural thing but as followers we need to have you guys as the stability to say hey Price is great these two starts, but… as opposed to Price is great buy buy buy then this happens and the industry tanks him. Love your work but one thing I always find myself being discouraged with because we follow your advice.

Paul Sporer: It’s a volatile market, things change. I personally don’t think I move too wildly on the whole, but I can’t just sit around as players change and not react. I also regularly give the boring “he’s fine, don’t worry” advice when it’s needed

Guest: Seems like youre still holding out hope for David Price, what are forcasting ROS? He’s ruined my pitching numbers YTD, trying to figure out if he’s part of the solution moving forward.

Paul Sporer: Things have already changed since the May ranking. I’m far more concerned about him than I was too weeks ago (sorry, John). His 37 IP haven’t *ruined* your team’s performance, even at 5.11, but obviously he hasn’t helped much. It’s hard to give any sort of projection when the health is up in the air. He’s still a very good pitcher when healthy, but numbess back in the fingers is worrisome.

H.E. Pennypacker: Jorge Soler or Dee Gordon OBP League rest of year?

Paul Sporer: That’s a pwr v. spd question dependent on your needs. Gordon in a vacuum bc his speed can be traded at any moment, too

John: Is Garrett Richards going to be your new Wacha. For years you sold us on “he’s an ace” and maybe there are signs of it but it’s just not gonna happen.

Paul Sporer: Not really a new Wacha, I’ve been a huge fan of both for years. And I acknowledge it might just not come together. Richards is 30, though, so if we don’t see a top-30 type season this year, I’ll stop hyping him for a big breakout

Jake Junis Priest: Re: last week – when I said Drake’s “turn the 02 into the 03” was trading Choo for Conforto, it’s because the former has two 0’s in his name and the latter has three.

Paul Sporer: Love it!!

Chris: Will Billy Hamilton get on base enough to steal this year?  I’m in an BA/OPS league and I have DeShields/Pham for SBs.  Thinking Hamilton’s a drop?

Paul Sporer: Hamilton is a TERRIBLE hitter, so I wouldn’t pin any hopes on him there. I still think his speed is good enough to trade, though, no? He’s never been a good hitter so I’d be surprised if it all of a sudden killed his trade value

Paul Spider: What is the name of the site you use for injury history?

Paul Sporer: http://prosportstransactions.com/baseball/Search/Search.php

Mack: Do you prefer Seager or Chapman ROS?

Paul Sporer: Seager by a shred. Really like both, though

Shawn: Should Nick Pivetta be owned even in 10 teamers?

Paul Sporer: As a streamer, ya. We’ll see if he plays his way into a full on must-start everywhere

Zorilla: Large jump in Sharks velo last outing

Paul Sporer: Let’s hope he starts turning it around. I’ll commit to watching some of his work this weekend/next week to see what I see

Michk54: Do you think Christin Stewart will hit the big club before September? He looks to have improved his plate discipline while keeping his power.

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s a 24 year old and while the Tigers are rebuilding, there’s no need to let him just crush AAA all year.

Thanos’s Nutsack Chin: Unless I am hallucinating, you guys loved Matt Chapman a couple of weeks ago.  Still holding strong with the love in light of his recent horrible slump?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I do love him and I still think he’s worth a hold in most leagues. He’s basically where he was last year now after a hot start and cold snap to cancel it out. Let’s see where he goes from here for a few weeks

Normal Al: Is Franchy Cordero a good bet for 30/20?

Paul Sporer: A good bet? No. That’s the dream scenario, making it like a 10-15% probability

Shawn: Is it time to scoop up Alex Reyes?

Paul Sporer: If you need a reliever!

Torres Torreyes: Andujar has cooled some of late. Think he gets demoted when Bird/Drury come back?

Paul Sporer: Could def see it, especially with Neil Walker coming out of it

Bob Villar: Any thoughts on Ozzie Albies?

Paul Sporer: <3 <3 <3 <3 <3

Pine Needles: Mazara or Haniger ROS?

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, Mazara’s another for my 2017 teams, btw. I’m so happy that he’s raking. I’ll lean Haniger as he has some speed, too

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Traded Tanaka and Reynaldo to get JD Martinez. How did I do?

Paul Sporer: Very well!

Bobby Sandy: I just took Betts over Trout 1:1 in a dynasty that counts Ks for hitters. I probably overthought it, but did I mess up *that* badly?

Paul Sporer: I’d have still taken Trout, but I don’t think it’s some egregious mistake. People will overreact to it when you tell them, but it’s not crazy

Juan Soto: Any chance I get to see time in 2018? Will I start in 2019?

Paul Sporer: Longshot at a 19 yr old who started in A, but he’s been amazing and if he just continues to savage the minors, I wouldn’t rule it. If I’m betting, though, I’m still saying no

Pants: Grandal or Wilson Ramos ROS?

Paul Sporer: Draw. Still think the Dodgers will get hot so it’s the better lineup to be in and thus I can lean Grandal, but I don’t have a strong case to take one over the other on skills alone

Canseco’s mullet: Why is nobody talking about all of Rhys Hoksins’ K’s?

Paul Sporer: Scroll up!

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Thought Tyson Ross as the last must-start on your rankings was interesting. Can you elaborate on the rationale for having him so high?

Paul Sporer: It’s less about the # ranking and more about the tier. I’m just not sitting Ross when healthy, except maybe Coors in a one-start week.

Kakie Bryan: Do you lurk on Reddit an downvote my bad fantasy baseball takes?

Paul Sporer: lol I do not

Paul Sporer: Only really went to Reddit when the podcast thing was shown to me

Jeremy: John’s all over you today haha

Paul Sporer: It’s OK! The Richards question is fair for sure. Don’t really see eye-to-eye on the other part about reacting to the market

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: I know you loved Gregory Polanco coming into the year. Someone gave up on him and I grabbed him off the wire. You still on board despite the slump?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s still showing good power and plate skills. I’m buying for sure

Dodgers SP: Worried about Rich Hill? He started slow last year too before turning it on.

Paul Sporer: No *more* worried than normal with Hill. He’s just a huge headache, that’s what ppl who draft him sign up for

Gerge: How much should we buy into xwOBA? E.g., Teoscar Votto and Eaton have impressive xwOBA #s https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s some Holy Grail or anything, but it’s a useful stat to add to the mix. I do worry that some are overusing it as a mic-dropper to make their points about buying or selling someone. Has it been tested at all to see how it does after the fact? Like did last year’s xwOBA studs in April/May who had a bad actual wOBA turn it around?

Bob Villar: Machado/Corbin or Turner/Darvish OBP Dynasty

Paul Sporer: Lean side A

GyorkoMyDickey: Drop Beltre for Franco in a 10 teamer?

Paul Sporer: No

Tommy Pham: Am I a stud?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Dave: Is the Great Mazara Breakout upon us… or just a good month?

Paul Sporer: TBD, writing him up for next week!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! You can follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24). I’ll be streaming later this afternoon and into the evening if you want to come by. I answer tons of baseball questions there, too. Twitch.tv/psporer24 — Have a great weekend!

Fortnite: I honestly can’t remember if I sent my question. If I did..sorry for the duplicate. What do you think of Ozuna ROs?

Paul Sporer: Covered him here – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-547-…

Paul Sporer: OK, I’ll talk to y’all later. BTW, I’m still considering moving the chat to either a) Thursday or b) earlier on Fridays so we can go longer. Tweet me your thoughts on which one you’d prefer!

Paul Sporer: Byeeeee