Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 24th, 2021 by Paul Sporer March 24, 2021 Transcript is now live! 1:04 Paul Sporer: Entering our final big weekend of drafts, let’s roll! 1:04 BombersBeat: How much should the Gallen injury “tank” his ADP? 1:05 Paul Sporer: If the league has IL spots, I’ll take a 5-6 round discount, but he’s basically off my board in NFBC-style leagues where you only get the 7 reserves. I just don’t like putting already injured pitchers on my teams 1:05 Airwhite54: Hello Sporer 1:05 Paul Sporer: Yo! 1:06 Buster Posey: Is he a top ten C in OBP leagues? 1:06 Paul Sporer: I’d think he’s close. You can run it through the Auction Calculator to get a good look: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/auction-calculator 1:08 Owen: Closer charts thinks Garrett has won the closing job. You all in yet? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YQLeAKTjBGGerTdKUMQHYhxfVHi73Y… 1:08 Paul Sporer: He’s 10th in my closer rankings (updated nightly on our Patreon) and hasn’t really dipped below 13 so I think I’ve been pretty in for the draft season 1:08 Robert: Dynasty league rebuild: what type of player should I ask for Liam hendriks? Having a tough time figuring out how to gauge his trade value. 1:09 Paul Sporer: I mean I think you know what you want, a young batter, so seek out the best prospect or near-prospect batter you can! 1:09 Gm: hat side do you like better… Stanton and keuchel or civale and moncada in a 6×6 add ops and Complete games 1:09 Paul Sporer: Civale/Moncada for me 1:10 Cory: Woeful at 1B, Walker or Cron? 1:10 Paul Sporer: Gimme Cron in Coors 1:10 Kevin: Is there an easy place to find an IP/S stat for pitchers, or do I have to do the math myself? 1:12 Paul Sporer: It’s on BRef https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2020-starter-pitching.s… 1:12 GG: In a points league where maximizing player starts matters, would you prefer d’Arnaud over Will Smith? 1:12 Paul Sporer: Yes, I would 1:12 Trade: would you trade Corbin burnes for Hayes in a offensively heavy league? 1:12 Paul Sporer: I’m OK with that, yes. 1:12 ATL: Looks like B Wilson may get the final spot in the rotation. Does he stick or is this just a stop gap measure until Soroka is ready? 1:13 Paul Sporer: I still like Bryse Wilson a bit. Still just 23, has the pitches, has shown the control in the minors. Let’s see if he can bring it all together 1:13 Closer: How confident are you I. Jordan hicks this year? 1:14 Paul Sporer: Relatively confident. He’s nearly 2 yrs removed from his TJ surgery and StL seems committed to getting him back into the closer’s role 1:14 Jimmy: My Luzardo for his Donaldson? I need a 3b 1:16 Paul Sporer: Think Luzardo should bring back more right now 1:16 Don Von Handburger: I hate to be-foul your chat with base discussion of saves, but do you have any gut feeling when deciding between Hicks and Gallegos, or Pagan and Melancon? 1:17 Paul Sporer: This Q was in before I said it, but I think the Cards want Hicks closing. As for SD, Pagan appears to be surging, but I’m nervous about his massive HR issues throughout his career 1:17 Guest: Who gets more saves: Daniel Bard, Tanner Scott, or Chris Martin? 1:17 Paul Sporer: Martin 1:20 Guest: Paul, what is your outlook on Freddy Peralta? I have a ton and is a consideration for me in the main event at the end of the week 1:22 Paul Sporer: Love the talent, but the spot is sketchy. He appears to be battling Lindblom and while he has better results, both are drawing strong reviews in the spring and averaging well over a K per IP. His price is surging and I’m not sure I want him as a middle reliever w/a pick inside the top 250. 1:23 Howd i do: First 7 picks in my draft….. Soto giolitto scherzer snell T. Anderson Lynn goldsmith 1:23 Paul Sporer: Looking strong! Love the pitching. Need some more speed, but it’s a good start 1:23 Jimbo: Ottavino, Clase, or Dolis in a holds league? Also chasing potential saves. 1:23 Paul Sporer: Dolis, Ottavino, Clase for me 1:23 Benji Johjima: Paul, you seem to be slightly higher on Muncy this year than the rest of the industry. Can you give us a quick sales pitch on Muncy for the 2021 season? Thanks! 1:24 Paul Sporer: I’m just not concerned w/his 2020 which is what seems to have dropped his price in the market. Core skills were in line w/2019 save an 80-point drop in BABIP. Love the triple eligibility, too 1:25 Joel: where do you fall on the Gavin Lux divide? Does Chris Taylor affect his AB’s or no? 1:26 Paul Sporer: I’ve been pushing him up a bit and bought a bit into Roberts’ comments about seeing him as a full-timer. He is still pretty affordable for the upside (200-215 recently) 1:26 Charles: What r the ceilings for Trevor rogets and daulton jefferies? I added both of em in my dynasty. 1:29 Paul Sporer: Big Rogers fan! Love prospects w/a plus changeup and have really become a fan of Marlins SPs in general given their development record. I don’t have as much on Jefferies. I know he’s had a massive spring and could make the club. I’m taking Rogers over him, though 1:29 Joel: Also woeful at 1B. Aguilar or Tellez? Hat tip to Cory. 1:31 Paul Sporer: I’m gonna do a little cop out and say both. Aguilar if volume is your key factor as he’s the starter, Tellez if you’re going off pure talent and OK w/him maybe not having a full-time role. He should at least be the strong side platoon at DH and if his ’20 K gains have ANY legitimacy, he’ll get more and more PT 1:31 Henry: Evan White a decent 1B buy as a prospect who everyone has forgotten about because of a bad 2020? 1:32 Paul Sporer: Yesss! I quite like White. I don’t love reserving a 1B-only player (generally prefer more flexibility on my bench), but I think there’s a boatload of upside for White so I’m making the exception w/him 1:32 Baruk: Ian Anderson and Stanton for Vlad Jr and Plesac? 1:32 Paul Sporer: Vlad/Plesac for me 1:32 Adam: Paul, love your podcast and your twitch streams. Dynasty points league. I’ve been offered D May and Gonsolin for Biggio. I’m in “win now” mode. I’m having a hell of a time deciding yeah or nah? 1:33 Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! I love Gonsolin and definitely understand the upside w/May, but you gotta keep Biggio in a win now situation. Neither Gonso nor May has a guaranteed SP role so gimme the everyday guy on a great team who might not leadoff if Springer has to miss time w/the oblique 1:33 Oh gary: What round do you feel comfortable grabbing Gary Sanchez as your C. ( please don’t say never; haha) 1:34 Paul Sporer: 11-13 area of a 15 team (pick 165 or later). 1:35 Tomas: Why are projections so high on Bichette’s SB? 20+ seems really aggressive 1:35 Paul Sporer: Totally agree and mentioned as much in my SS rankings https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-top-50-shortstops/ 1:35 Misty: Winker or Verdugo? 1:35 Paul Sporer: Verdugo. Full time player with premium AVG 1:35 Troy: Slow auction winding down, I have Castillo/Paddack/Burnes/Lopez/Gausman/D.May Roto with IP (not W or QS) I can probably pick 3 of: Mahle/Urquidy/Kopech/Marquez/Gonsolin/McKenzie/Civale/Paxton/Heaney I value roughly in that order. Thoughts? Okay to pushin on Kopech w/ IP? 1:36 Paul Sporer: I’d move Kopech way back. He’s not slated to start in the rotation so I’d favor Civale ahead of him for. Urq/Civale/Mahle would be awesome 1:36 45 blows billygoats: How soon do you think we see Rocker or Leiter pitching in MLB? 1:37 Paul Sporer: Probably 2024 at the earliest 1:38 45 blows billygoats: You buying Dobnak’s new slider usage inducing K’s for the long term? 1:41 Paul Sporer: Little bit, yeah. Had to push him up the ranks when I was reading about his spring the other night 1:41 purplemini: any reason to believe Ronald Guzman has figured it out? 1:47 Paul Sporer: This is one of those guys where he’s always “looked the part” so I’ve rooted for him to figure it out and tap into the power we expect his frame to deliver. I know that’s a silly reason to root for him, but when he connects, he can his some beautiful homers. He was a moderately well regarded prospect, but it just looked like we weren’t going to get anything special after his first 800 PA. He’s young enough (26) that I can’t ignore this spring surge combined w/him discussing how different he feels. I haven’t drafted him yet and I’m not sure I will but he’s 100% on the FAAB watchlist, though the potential to add OF makes him a more viable stash as a 1B/OF. For those unaware: he’s raking in spring w/a .313/.405/.656 line 3 HR, 5 BB, and 8 K in 37 PA. 1:47 Guest: Lost Gallen in NL-only. Who do you prefer: T Antone, C Martinez, Bumgarner, M Keller, J Cueto, T Rogers, A DeSclafani, A Mills 1:48 Paul Sporer: If I thought Antone had the gig on lock, I’d go him. But I think Mills and his early potential schedule is the fill-in option here for Gallen. Is it still drafting? No way these guys are FAs, right? 1:48 Michelle Branch: RANDY DOBNAK CHAT SECTION! Is he worth rostering in 12team H2H league, or should I say “Goodbye to You”? 1:48 Paul Sporer: See above! 1:48 CJ Cron: If I start 140 games, what does my line look like in Coors? 1:51 Paul Sporer: .265-35-95 in ~570 PA 1:53 Matt Y(2001 NYS Wrestling Champ): I over paid for Kirby Yates and my bullpen stinks. Who are some low cost replacement options that might be on my waiver wire? I always have a terrible bullpen and I wind up giving away great players to try and fix it. 1:55 Paul Sporer: If you can’t get Romano/Dolis, then Nick Wittgren, maybe Matt Bush or Ian Kennedy in TEX, Josh Staumonth, Giovanny Gallegos, Stefan Crichton 1:55 Prancer: Hi Sporer, auction draft question in QS ($260 budget): Would you rather DeGrom + $1-5 pitcher or 2 $25ish pitchers (Nola, Flaherty, Kershaw, Glasnow, Snell) 1:58 Paul Sporer: I mean it kinda depends on the $1-5 pitcher in question, but would that even be the comparison? LIke I get it, you’re saying like a $50-55 dollar budget for 2 SPs so you’re making that comparison, but I still think it’s better to comp deGrom & your #2 v. the 2 $25s even if it’s more than $50-55 bc you’re not making that $1-5 guy your 2nd starter. And I’d rather have deGrom and a $10-19 guy v. two $20-30 guys. 1:58 Bob Villar: $4 Kyle Lewis for $7 Max Kepler in an OBP dynasty. which side? 1:59 Paul Sporer: Definitely taking Lewis at nearly half the price. At equal price, I’d probably still take Lewis, tbh. 1:59 Max: How many IP for Lamet this season? 2:00 Paul Sporer: 115 2:00 Bounce back: Marcus Siemien got one in em this year? 2:01 Paul Sporer: Yesssss. And he’s getting 2B elig. quickly into the season. He and Gurriel Jr. are my preferred ways to get into the TOR offense over the pricy options like Bichette, Vlad Jr., Springer, Biggio, and Teoscar. 2:01 Kate: Mitch Keller’s velocity is looking good, but still getting blown up in ST. Is this just a command thing for him at this point? 2:04 Paul Sporer: Yeah command, control, shape/life of pitches. Velo alone can only do so much. Less about his spring and more about overall concerns regarding his stuff has had me pushing Keller down as I battle test my rankings in drafts & found myself repeatedly skipping over Keller even when he was my highest ranked SP left available 2:04 DH ONLY: Franmil Reyes or Yordan Alvarez for this year only? 2:11 Paul Sporer: I’m really torn here bc I think Reyes is a 40-HR bat coming at a perfectly fair price bc he’s UT-only. But Alvarez can hit 40 HR WITHHHH a .290 AVG. He’s sooo good. And while the knees definitely give me some reservation, I generally say gimme the elite skills profile as long as they’re healthy at draft time and I’ll gamble on trying to stay healthy. I usually reserve a spot, maybe two, for guys in that camp. 2:11 Timmy: What do you think the chances are that we see Julio Rodriguez for the Ms this year? Does his strong spring improve his chances at all? 2:14 Paul Sporer: Like 7-10% and it’d have to be in the scenario where the M’s are surprising. Haniger stays healthy, Kelenic dominates off rip, Lewis continues to be great, France & Moore build on ’20, White and Crawford make a leap, and young pitching coalesces around a healthy Paxton. Lotta “ifs” but not impossible. 2:14 Pat: Paddack or Alcantara for this year and long term? 2:15 Paul Sporer: Alcantara on both. More complete arsenal 2:15 Timmy: Following the saves theme… you going after Romano or Dolis now that Yates has been sidelined? Or is Tor a “stay away” situation? 2:15 Neal: More Saves questions! Where does Romano fall in the closer hierarchy? 2:18 Paul Sporer: I’m going for Romano, but within reason. Montoyo said he’s not naming anyone off rip which is expected, but that doesn’t mean Romano can’t sorta force himself into the obvious option and get that gig. I think he has a better shot at that then Dolis, but don’t go zooming Romano into the top 10 closers like we saw in Justin’s Main Event. I have him 25th right now. Here’s a look at my top 30 from mine & Justin’s rankings sheet on our Patreon https://imgur.com/Xpltv5O 2:18 Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON. 2:18 Paul Sporer: Agreed 2:19 Pale Hose: Seems that Andrew Vaughn will start the year with the White Sox. Would you prefer his upside to that of Austin Riley, CJ Cron, or other late-round bats? 2:20 Paul Sporer: Taking Cron until Vaughn is locked w/an Opening Day spot but you really highlight 3 bats I like. I could envision a team build where I get the three as my 1B/3B/CI in sort of a discount corner setup. There are stars at those positions, but if I’m just loading up on my MI, OF, and P, this could definitely work 2:20 Henry: Better CI: Justin Turner or CJ Cron? 2:21 Paul Sporer: Lotta Cron love out here today, but I’m sticking w/him. Turner is a G when he plays, but it’s all-but-guaranteed that he will miss time while Cron can be a full-timer. 2:21 KJL: Any pitchers youre targeting in the 600+ ADP range? Gets pretty thin back there. 2:26 Paul Sporer: unproven potential gems: Logan Allen, Corbin Martin, Jose De Leon, Daulton Jefferies, Austin Voth; crusty innings w/a tinge of upside: Johnny Cueto, Julio Teheran, Alex Cobb, Kyle Gibson 2:26 Icculus: Are you buying the ADP surge relating to Senzel? 2:27 Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m still in around 150, but it’s about at my breaking point 2:28 Tom: Call me crazy, but as per last night’s podcast, I don’t hate reaching a bit on Jordan Romano. Nearly a 20% swinging strike rate and a 58% groundball rate last year to go along with a 12:1 K/BB ratio in spring. 2:28 Paul Sporer: Reaching up a few rounds is one thing, the 7th round like Justin’s main is insane 2:28 Dee Arby: You stoked for The Show on PS5? Been meaning to ask, what camera angles do you use for pitching and hitting? 2:29 Paul Sporer: I can’t wait!!!! I know we’re not going to see a HUUUUUGE utilization of the PS5 upside just yet, but I still can’t wait for the new game. I use Strike Zone for hitting and Strike Zone offset for pitching 2:29 Lugolas: Options to replace Gallen from FA pool 2:29 Paul Sporer: I don’t know? Who’s available in your league? 2:30 Neal: Do you think Jon Gray is a sneaky buy-low in dynasty? He’s a FA after this year. 2:30 Paul Sporer: Hey you gotta find litlte edges in dynasty and this definitely qualifies. It might not really payoff, but it’s not a bad idea, especially if you’re already in a rebuild 2:31 Neal: Any reason to be excited about Wacha in TB? 2:31 Paul Sporer: I’ve always been a fan and now he’s with an org that does really well w/pitchers. He’s a free shot w/like your last pick or even an FA pickup 2:32 Beastman: Will Reds’ defense compromise their SP performance? 2:32 Paul Sporer: Probably not to an appreciable degree, imo 2:33 Vic: Why is everyone down on Amed Rosario? His 2nd half of 2019 was outstanding 2:33 Paul Sporer: Playing time, especially as he struggles to transition to the OF 2:34 dave in slc: just got here and may have already been asked but will there be an updated starting pitcher ranking? did you ever do a relief pitcher ranking? 2:34 Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2021-closer-tiers/ 2:35 Worried: Are you fading any pitchers off of the news that the MLB is cracking down on substances used on balls? 2:35 Paul Sporer: Not really, no. The majority use something and we’ll see how serious they are about it. 2:35 Hopeful: Do you buy Charlie Morton’s spring velocity gains as a sign that he will get close to his pre 2020 production? 2:37 Paul Sporer: His playoffs kept me bought in, tbh 2:41 dave in slc: dalbec worth 10 in an al only? 2:41 Paul Sporer: AL Only yeah 2:41 The Last Superpower: thoughts on MLB cracking down on doctored baseballs, assuming they stick with it? no pun intended 2:41 Paul Sporer: It’s finally a move that can actually curb Ks if they keep it up, but hard to say for sure if they follow through 2:42 Used to be Good: Thoughts on a Madison Bumgarner rebound? 2:42 Paul Sporer: He goes as his velo goes. If it’s north of 90, I have some interest. If he’s 87-89, I’m not so keen on it 2:42 Guest: Dylan Cease – can he be a #3? 2:43 Paul Sporer: Perfect world, sure, but he’s a loooooooooooooooong way from that. 2:44 Mario: Franchy or Naylor? 2:44 Paul Sporer: Naylor. I think he’s a sneaky sleeper, tbh 2:44 Bang Ding Ow: Why you type so slow? 2:44 Paul Sporer: I don’t. I type extremely fast, tbh. Sorry I’m giving thoughtful answers 2:45 Richard: hi – are you going to update your January SP rankings? draft is this weekend! thx! 2:46 Paul Sporer: We have up to the minute ones on our Patreon, but I can get some updated SPs out there 2:47 Secret Admirer- Not creepy way!: True or False: Bryce Harper is the most underrated 2nd round pick going right now, and he is a relative steal going 10 picks after yelich in ADP 2:47 Paul Sporer: I have zero issues w/Yelich so I don’t frame it like that, but I’m so in on Harper in the 2nd and would even pair him up w/Yelich tbh 2:48 ilna: why is benintendi going so low? he’s a $1 flyer in all my leagues with 15/15 projections 2:49 Paul Sporer: Market had soured on his bland performance since ’19, but if he’s a dollar, I can get behind it. But he’s a top 200 pick in drafts that I’ve seen so he’s not an automatic given the guys around him 2:49 I Used to be Mel Clark: What site is the Closer Charts Google Sheet from?? Very nice resource.] 2:50 Paul Sporer: That is done by the excellent Greg Jewett who used to do Bullpen Reports here: https://twitter.com/gjewett9 2:53 45 blows billygoats: Victor Robles is going to live up to hype an steal 40 bags this year….right???? 2:53 Paul Sporer: I reeeeaaallllyy hope so! I’m a fan and definitely open to the price 2:53 Guest: Daulton Jefferies 12 team material if he makes the rotation or more of a wait and see? 2:53 Paul Sporer: Ehhhh 12 is still fringe even w/a job 2:54 Sandy Banks: Toronto’s pitching coach loves Romano 2:54 Paul Sporer: That doesn’t really change his saves outlook, tbh. Loving him could mean wanting him in the fireman role when things can be most important 2:54 Rocco: Pick one if you had to – T. Edman vs. G. Hampson? I need SBs 2:54 Paul Sporer: Edman by a mile 2:55 RT: Daily moves league. $16 Ohtani must keep? 2:55 Paul Sporer: Yes! In a daily moves league where he’s one player, I’d take him 2nd-3rd round 2:56 Rocco: Is Ramon Laureano finally going to flourish this year at the top of the A’s order? Seems like he always underwhelms 2:56 Paul Sporer: Always? He’s been in the league for 3 minutes and put up 131, 127, and 103 wRC+ totals. His only underwhelming performance was the 2-month season 2:57 Marty: Is Eloy Jimenez batting above .270? 2:57 Paul Sporer: Strong chance, yes 2:57 45 blows billygoats: PSA: Morejon is not pronounced More-John, it’s pronounce Morey-hone….who knew????? 2:57 Paul Sporer: LOL, I feel like that should’ve been obvious, tbh, but maybe that’s living in Texas bias 2:58 zurzles: Vidal Brujan a good NA slot pickup in redraft leagues? 2:58 Paul Sporer: Yes, I love Brujan and think he will be up before Franco 2:58 Hopeful: Does Madrigal’s value rise in a H2H categories league? 2:58 Paul Sporer: v. Roto? Not really. The speed is important in both 2:59 Used to be Good: Gallen or Buehler over the next 3 season? 2:59 Paul Sporer: Buehler and not bc of Gallen’s new injury 2:59 Anonymous: Call your shot: Wander Franco’s peak career ADP? 2:59 Paul Sporer: 3 3:00 Mario: Gonsolin: LAD rotation is full, and bullpen is already good… how will LAD even use him this year? 3:00 Paul Sporer: The bullpen is good in part because of him. He should be a multi-inning guy 2-3x a week 3:00 Phillies Phinal Out: goes to? thanks in advance! 3:01 Paul Sporer: I’m buying Neris 3:02 Powdered Toast Man: AL only OPS- is Walsh a top 90-100 pick at a thin 1b market? 3:04 Paul Sporer: That’s a little high. Top 100 hitter, but not overall pick. There is a decent tier that he’s in w/Sano, Santana, Tellez, Mancini, Vaughn, Candelario, Dozier, and maybe even Evan White 3:04 Mario: Old man here. What is Patreon, can you provide link? 3:05 Paul Sporer: https://www.patreon.com/thesleeperandthebust Similar to Effectively Wild, we’re building the pod listening community more via Patreon w/an opportunity for more content with our updated rankings, Discord, extra pods, etc. 3:05 Anonymous: i made it to the Perfect League for the first time in OOTP this week! What’s an equivalent achievement in MLB The Show (picking it up for x1)? 3:06 Paul Sporer: Yesss congrats! I’d think that’s similar to going 12-0 in Battle Royale 3:07 Gene Belcher: Are Carlos Rodon’s spring results for real, or is he just having a good run? 3:08 Paul Sporer: Arm talent isn’t a question, it’s always been about health. He is absolutely affordable enough to take the shot on his talent and this spring. If it doesn’t work out, it’s not a difficult cut. 3:09 Joe: Missed out on the decent 1Bs in my 12 team 5×5 with OBP and SLG for AVG and HR. Right now I’m between Belt or Cahna but is someone like N Lowe or Guzman worthwhile? Better to just go with a guy like Cahna and wait for someone to gain eligibility or show a breakout? 3:11 Paul Sporer: I’d definitely go with Canha. I think he can be really good and a full year option 3:12 Cool Papa Bell: With the news about Nick Anderson’s elbow, do you think Fairbanks gets more run in the 9th inning? 3:14 Paul Sporer: For those who hadn’t heard he has some mild elbow inflammation and soreness, but I always thought he was super overrated this draft season bc I just don’t see enough saves. Fairbanks and Castillo are definitely worth a pick 3:14 Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!