Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 23rd, 2017

Chat transcript is below!

2:06
Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone!! We’re so close to baseball and I couldn’t be more excited. Let’s chat!

2:06
tater tots: Haniger or Rajai in an OBP league for my LF?

2:06
Paul Sporer: Think I’m takin the shot on Haniger unless you really need the SBs

2:06
Gary: Any concern about Arrieta this year after his second half?

2:06
Paul Sporer: Can’t ever completely ignore a doubling of walk rate, even if some of it seems purposeful as a way of not giving in to hitters. I’m the low man on him in our rankings.

2:07
Gary: Am I crazy for wanting to draft Lucroy if it means reaching for him? Him in Texas seems like a crazy good match.

2:07
Paul Sporer: Depends how high you’re reaching

2:07
Paul: Is Ryan madsen even worth holding at this point? My other closers are Allen, Reed/Familia, and potentially Capps.

2:08
Paul Sporer: Ya I would for now

2:08
Jeremy : I’m still not sure how to feel about a few guys: Arrieta, Keuchel, and Garrett Richards. Do you still consider Arrieta to be mostly what he was in 2015? What about Keuchel? And, do you buy that Richards is healthy enough to be a #2/3 this year? Thanks.

2:09
Paul Sporer: No I don’t consider Arrieta to be mostly his ’15 self. Honestly, I’m more worried about health than performance. Keuchel is solid (mid-3.00s) and his cost matches that. Richards COULD be a beast, but his cost dictates he doesn’t have to be so it’s worth taking the gamble

2:09
Rpo: Do you think Steve Pearce will be an everyday player? He is 2B eligible in my league and am thinking of dropping Josh Harrison for him

2:10
Paul Sporer: Unlikely, hasn’t seen >400 PA in his career and he’s 33 years old

2:10
Jason: Are you a fan of Steven Matz or does his injury history worry you too much? How good can he be if he stays healthy?

2:11
Paul Sporer: I’m a fan for sure. Stuff is legit and he can be a strong #2 if healthy. Health concern is baked into cost.

2:11
Gucci: Paul I consciously paired some higher risk/unproven guys with steady innings eaters in my points league draft the other day: Lester and Yu, Hill and Keuchel, Rodon and Nova. Do you like these guys / the general strat?

2:12
Paul Sporer: Absolutely, this is something we’ve been discussing more and more on the pod, too. Can’t just stack a bunch of McCullers/Rodon types and expect them all to hit. Nova, Ervin Santana, and Ian Kennedy are some of my favorite stabilizers who are essentially free (aka very LATE rounders)

2:12
Borkins: Ello, mate!

2:12
Paul Sporer: Sup Borkins!

2:12
Jim: Have you seen Dylan Cease? He does not get much pub outside of Chicago but he can’t be that far off from top prospects like Glasnow and Kopech?

2:12
Paul Sporer: I haven’t, I’m aware of him from SP Guide stuff in past years, but have never gotten eyes on him

2:12
Paul Wall: I went heavy on offense and ended with a rotation of Duffy, Hamels, Hendricks, Fulmer, Gray, Ross, Shoe. Could that fly in a 12 teamer?

2:13
Paul Sporer: It can fly, but stay diligent. Good balance of stable and gamble

2:13
MarinerDan: HanRam going to rake this year, no?

2:13
Paul Sporer: If healthy, always. He’s a total stud and injury is really the only thing that has ever stopped him

2:13
The Inbetweener: Hey Paul – I have Belt (for 2 years) and Hanley (1 year) in a points league (So OBP is valued). I am looking to flip one of those for an OFer. An owner is offering me Fowler+ for either of them. Would you consider Fowler at all? And would you ask for more?

2:14
Paul Sporer: I love Belt, but that park just eats him alive so I’d be open to moving him and Fowler+ is definitely fair

2:14
Sporax V Hendermueller: Greetings! In a keeper league that uses OBP instead of AVG, do you like Addison Russell or Moncada better for 2017-2020?

2:14
Paul Sporer: I’m a Russell backer.

2:14
Borkins: Yo Spooner, what’s your take on Cody Reed, CIN being hot fire this year?

2:16
Paul Sporer: If the spring gains in BB% are legit, he can definitely take a step or two forward. Quality raw stuff

2:16
MarinerDan: Sanchez has passed Posey as the #1 at catcher, right?

2:16
Paul Sporer: No

2:16
Minty: Loved the pod with Eno. Sorry but my auction is this weekend. My $200 QS keeper will dictate multi year deals. How do you rank J Gray $6/7/8, Nola 5/6/7, VV 3/4/5, Rodin 3/4/5, and Pass?

2:17
Paul Sporer: Rodon is the only one I’d do. I just don’t like long-term SP deals, even at fair prices

2:17
Ryan : Trust levels with Osuna and Giles? Do you have a preference?

2:17
Paul Sporer: Pretty high. I think the Jansen, Chapman, Britton is its own tier, but that 2nd tier is thick and capable of jumping to that top level. Prefer Giles barely.

2:17
Ben: H2H 7×7 preference in the first round: harper/donaldson/rizzo?

2:17
Paul Sporer: Harper

2:17
Ken M: Favorite Bowling for Soup song?

2:18
Paul Sporer: Whichever one isn’t playing. Saw them many times in college bc my friends were fans, but they never struck me

2:18
The Rando: My bullpen is Kimbrel, Miller, Britton, and Oh. Who would you flip to better my rotation? And who should I target? (Holds don’t have points in my points league)

2:19
Paul Sporer: Just see what the market will yield. It’s really difficult to identify targets via trade, you gotta shop around. Britton likely to return the most, of course

2:19
Moelicious: Why is Kyle Hendricks the #5 starter and Brett Anderson the #4 starter? Does it even matter?

2:19
Paul Sporer: Maybe just the cycle they were on in Spring? Doesn’t really matter, no

2:19
Ted: Jake Arrieta or Corey Kluber and why?

2:19
Paul Sporer: Kluber. Worried about Arrieta holding up for 200+

2:19
Jason: Do you think Sam Dyson holds the job for the whole year or do you think Matt Bush will take it over?

2:20
Paul Sporer: Make no mistake, Dyson’s stuff is NASTY, but it’s more for weak contact than strikeouts so that could put him in jeopardy if his batted ball luck disappears for a spell and causes some blown saves. I like pairing them to secure Texas’ saves, tbh.

2:20
Brandon: in a 10 team roto, what round should I start going for my sleeper picks?

2:21
Paul Sporer: Teens rounds

2:21
Derrick: If McCullers stays healthy, can he be a top 15SP?

2:21
Paul Sporer: Oh absolutely!

2:21
Chase: Gotten a chance to play the beta of OOTP 18?

2:21
Paul Sporer: Not yet, this week has been bananas, but I just installed the update this morning and I’m *hoping* to play tonight. If not, I’ll be playing on my flight to NY tomorrow

2:21
Guy: I got stuck overpaying for Alex Gordon at the end of my AL only league auction (OBP and SLG instead of AVG). Tell me there is hope for optimism.

2:23
Paul Sporer: There is. I don’t think he’s done

2:24
Paul Sporer: We’re too quick to think a guy is done after the first bad year in his 30s and then get so surprised when he’s not. It does happen sometimes for sure, but I’m not quitting Gordon

2:24
Borkins: Will Ian Happ force his way into a role with the Cubs this season? He’s been hot fire in ST and looks legit

2:25
Paul Sporer: More likely to be their big trade chip for reinforcements, but it’s been impressive to watch

2:25
Deivi Cruz: Have to keep one: $1 Neftali Feliz or $1 Shawn Kelley?

2:25
Paul Sporer: Feliz has the job, Kelley is up in the air

2:25
MarinerDan: Marte going to hit with at least SOME pop this year? (He had 9 dingers last year.)

2:26
Paul Sporer: I don’t see a major power outburst, or if it does come, it’ll be at the expense of some SBs. I don’t see a 20-40 coming. He’ll be back in double digits with his HRs. I will say one thing that worries me is the consistently low games played and consistently high HBP, but the talent is immense.

2:26
Russell Archer: I drafted a super high upside rotation but super high injury risk one as well (Carrasco-Hill-Paxton-Taillon-Shoemaker-Richards-Manaea-Gsellman). How would you manage risk there/think about waiver wire pickups to stabilize if need be?

2:29
Paul Sporer: Definitely major risk, but at least it’s a ton of guys I like. The problem with a heavy-risk rotation is that you’ll want to be patient and it could blow up in your face. I’d keep a tight leash on Richards, Manaea, and Gsellman. Not necessarily cut them, but bench em if it’s rocky early. Get an Ervin Santana type for the bench

2:29
Robby: what do you think of Tapia for $3 in a $400 points dynasty league

2:30
Paul Sporer: I like anyone in Coors at that cost, but man oh man do I hate his 2-strike super-crouch. I think he can hit for a good AVG with some speed.

2:30
Mike: What kind of ratios would you reasonably expect out of Robbie Ray? He’s had a great spring, and those strikeout numbers are tantalizing, but I do wonder if his “bad luck” issues from last year have a legit chance of materializing for 2017.

2:31
Paul Sporer: I think his lack of command contributes to some of the “bad luck” so if he hasn’t gotten better there, it’ll be back in 17. That said, it’s hard to ignore someone who gets 200 Ks. You can’t fake that. I’m looking at a 3.80ish ERA and taking anything else as gravy

2:32
Scott: Is Danny Espinosa starting at 2B for Angels?

2:32
Scott: Is Martin Maldonado starting at C for Angels?

2:32
Scott: Is Rajai Davis a starting OF for Athletics?

2:32
Paul Sporer: I’m the starting lineup whisperer out here! Yes to all three as far as I know

2:32
Scott: Who is starting for Indians at 2B, 3B, CF and LF?

2:32
Scott: Who is starting for Orioles at DH, LF, RF?

2:32
Scott: Is Luis Sardinas starting at SS for Padres?

2:32
Scott: Is Tim Beckham starting at SS for Rays?

2:33
Paul Sporer: LOL, let me introduce you to Roster Resource: http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-roster-grid

2:33
OnTilt: 14 team 5×5 roto, keep 10, $300 budget w/ $5 annual increases. trade my $22 Longoria for $20 Britton— rest of keepers are– E5 $31
Altuve $31
Villar $15
Donaldson $25
Cruz $30
Benintendi $10
Dyson $5
Cueto $20
Cole $22

2:33
Paul Sporer: I’m cool with that, ay

2:33
Paul Sporer: ya*

2:34
dog: Villar and Kelvin for Cueto and McCullers even in a 5×5? What about Sano, Duffy, Kelvin for the same two?

2:35
Paul Sporer: Both are fair, yes. I’d prefer the 2-for-2 just bc I like both sides

2:35
MarinerDan: What is the earliest slot you take Trea Turner in a roto, 5X5 draft?

2:36
Paul Sporer: We took him 10 at LABR Mixed, but Jason is huge on him so I was cool to push him a couple spots on my board. I’m looking more at the turn of a 15-team league (14/15 range)

2:36
Brian: RP’s that have SP eligibility are super valuable in my league that uses SV+H (and K/BB). Who do you like the best this year? Phelps, Iglesias, Devenski, etc?

2:36
Paul Sporer: Really like Devenski, though I think Iglesias is the best bet for SV/HD. Devenski and Phelps are more likely to get starts at some point

2:37
dog: Also, did you see that Kendrick posted a hint about his 4th album? Just a black background with IV on it but it’s something. Pretty hyped

2:37
Paul Sporer: Oh snap! I did not see that

2:37
Paul Sporer:

2:38
Gary: Shying away from Carrasco at all with the injuries already popping up?

2:38
Paul Sporer: I moved him down a bit, but not completely running away

2:38
Ted: Would you hold on to players like Devin Mesoraco or Delino Deshields in deep leagues or is the hope that they get enough at bats to be relevant non existent? Could drop both and add a couple top 100 prospects if I do.

2:39
Paul Sporer: I would hold on in deep leagues, espec. Deshields. I was high on him last year and it definitely flopped, but he’s still just 25. Carlos Gomez is already nicked and Jurickson Profar‘s health has been a problem throughout his career so far

2:39
Bayside: Thoughts on whether it’s DeLeon or Honeywell pitching for the Rays in 2017? Both?

2:39
Paul Sporer: They just love to slow roast their prospects so I haven’t really been eyeing either in drafts despite liking both. I’d say DeLeon is much more likely to throw meaningful innings this year (75+)

2:40
Chaco Chicken: Heard anything about Suntrust Field? Will it play better for hitters or pitchers than Turner Field?

2:40
Paul Sporer: This is literally all I know about it

Here’s a sneak peek of @SunTrustPark courtesy of @MLBTheShow!
23 Mar 2017
2:40
Derrick: 2017 Ozuna more closely resemble his 16′ first half?

2:41
Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. Of course, he has to stay health. The June wrist injury clearly curbed his breakout season

2:41
Moelicious: Thoughts on Josh Bell vs. Travis Shaw vs. Steve Pearce for my CI slot? I have Bell but am underwhelmed by his .083, 0 HR spring training.

2:42
Paul Sporer: Not so worried his spring, but still prefer him 3rd of the bunch. Shaw is the clear winner in this trio for me. The Brewers love running and while he’s hardly a burner, he could swipe 8-12 to go with his power output

2:42
Oaktown : Is Casilla the handcuff to have over Doolittle in Oakland? Assuming Madson begins the year as closer of course.

2:42
Paul Sporer: I don’t want to believe that, but it may be the case. In other words, I have no idea.

2:42
Anthony: Hey Paul! I got the 3rd pick in a 10 tm h2h keeper league. Do I go with Bryce, Donaldson or Kershaw there?

2:43
Paul Sporer: In that setup, probably Kershaw. Too early for Donaldson, IMO, so it’s definitely Kershaw or Harper

2:43
Paul Sporer: Oh man you sent that question three times in a row. I hate you so much now 🙂

2:43
Sporax V Hendermueller: Is Koda the closer in Washington? Or just a sub-par zep album?

2:45
Paul Sporer: LOL. They seem to be grooming him for it and his stuff is FILTHY. Sits 96-97 with a 90 MPH slider: http://www.pitcherlist.com/koda-glovers-slider-the-nastiest-pitching-g…

2:45
MD: Hey Paul, which 2 of these 3 would you want: Bundy, Folty, Snell? 20-team 5×5 roto. Thanks!

2:45
Paul Sporer: Bundy and Folty

2:45
David Wiers: Today is national puppy day, and I’ve seen zero Charlotte snaps. Explain yourself. The people demand answers.

2:45
Paul Sporer: I’m a failure at life

2:48
Paul Sporer:

Charlotte is raw. cc: @davidwiers
23 Mar 2017
2:48
MarinerDan: Feels like Stanton is being penalized too much this year. Yes, he has been injured in the past, but last year was a freak incident. Yes, his lineup is a little weak, but the man might hit 50 taters! 17th ranked OF? Way too conservative. Agree?

2:50
Paul Sporer: Nah, I don’t really agree. Listen, I love Stanton, but we make SOOO many excuses for him. Isn’t 2016 Trumbo (47 HR, 108 RBI, 96 R, .256 AVG) kinda the upside at this point? That was essentially a $25 season last year.

2:51
Paul Sporer: One thing I will say in his favor is that I don’t think he’s as RISKY as people suggest. You can basically put high-20s HRs in ink almost regardless of how many games he plays and if you’re in a shallower league, you’re supplementing his missed time with something solid so I’m still eyeing him in leagues, but his price is fair

2:51
Joey G: What do you expect from buxton this year….he’s been a keeper of mine the last 2 years and he’s going to be on a short leash

2:52
Paul Sporer: Keep in mind he doesn’t even have 500 PA yet and he’s going to be 23. Expectations were high (understandably given the prospect hype), but I wouldn’t necessarily be short with him. I think it’s something like .260-20-20 this year

2:53
Marc: Keep scherzer at 2nd round cost or Stras at round 5?

2:53
Paul Sporer: Stras

2:53
Paul Sporest: Hey Paul, I got the 10th pick in 12 team 5X5 H2H categories snake draft. What are your thoughts on only drafting hitter for first 6 to dominate hitting categories? Can I still get a solid pitching staff?

2:53
Paul Sporer: I can dig it. A H2H seems like a spot where you can stream and churn through SPs if your mid- and late-round gambles don’t pop

2:54
Don Von Handburger: My draft is Friday night. How many beers should I drink before and during?

2:56
Paul Sporer: Hmm, do like getting lit during the draft? I’d normally say just 1 before and then 0 during, but if you like drinking during, I’d keep to about 4-5 depending on your tolerance. Don’t wanna be too smashed

2:56
MarinerDan: Name the one guy this year most likely to wreck a fantasy season.

2:58
Paul Sporer: Well, I don’t really think one guy ever ruins a season, but to give an early rounder who could totally flop, I’ll group two together bc they have the same kind of flop potential – Turner & Villar — same meaning if they don’t perform and can’t rack up the SBs, that really hurts their teams bc they likely didn’t get TOO many other SBs after them. They could both cut their HR production and be fine.

2:58
Paul Sporer: But if they don’t run, that really hurts.

2:58
Tom Murphy: Paul, if I’m not real, why does my arm hurt so much? Also, last two keepers in a ten-team mixer: OF-only Schwarber ($11) vs. Mazara ($6) AND Aaron Sanchez vs. Rich Hill (both $6)? THANKS!

2:59
Paul Sporer: lol I believe in your realness! Eno thinks you’re fake, though. Maz and Sanchez

2:59
Sam: How long does it take for Carter Capps to become the Padres closer?

3:00
Paul Sporer: Not certain he ever gets the role and not necessarily bc of performance, but maybe bc they want their best reliever available in 7th-8th innings. Plus, Maurer is pretty damn good stuff and skill wise

3:01
Paul Sporer:

3:01
TJax: I have Tommy Joseph as my starting 1B, however I own Posey with the hope he obtains 1B eligibility (10 games) early in 2017. That said would you before a Joseph/Posey combo between 1B/C, or a Posey/ Vogt combo as I have Vogt stashed on my bench currently

3:01
Paul Sporer: I never like playing 2 Cs if it’s a 1 C league. So I’d roll with Joseph and if he flops, scope the wire for a replacement

3:02
Mike: Current bullpen of Chapman, Kelley, Madson, Glover, & Neris. Solid?

3:03
Paul Sporer: Ya – ace closer, the WASH situation, OAK frontrunner (albeit on shaky ground), and the best piece in PHI (though as I said w/Capps, they might prefer him in middle innings if Gomez can handle the 9th adequately)

3:03
Justin: Points league dilemma – can keep Bregman, Schwarber and Sanchez for last round value, but if I keep all 3 I can’t keep one of Donaldson or Sale. League values K’s and OBP/average the most, leaning toward no Bregman. Any advice?

3:05
Ian Kinsler Frowning: Hey Pauk, loved the pitcher pod as always! AVG and OPS league- would you take Altuve, Goldy or Miggy with round 1 pick?

3:05
Paul Sporer: Thanks! I’d take Goldy

3:06
Paul Sporer: I hope the crybaby who hates my music is here today! http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/paul-sporer-baseball-chat-march-17th-…

3:06
Paul Sporer:

3:07
Don Von Handburger: Is “Roc La” Familia really going to be suspended for a month? It’s pretty certain that Addison “Grove Project” Reed gets saves during that time, right?

3:07
Paul Sporer: I think he is going to face at least a month suspension and yes, it’ll be Reed.

3:07
Don Von Handburger: Should I favor Thames or Cole Kalhoun for my 3rd OF?

3:08
Paul Sporer: I have them pretty closely ranked. I’d take Calhoun if there’s some risk in my first 2 OF and Thames if I’m more stable

3:08
Rocky Mountain High: Can I & the Rockies count on Tyler Anderson this year as a solid #3?

3:08
Paul Sporer: #3 for fantasy? No way. He’s gotta be a 5 or 6, but I do like him

3:08
Gary: The Indians rotation is loaded with fantasy assets. Any concern over them since so many threw big innings last year?

3:09
Paul Sporer: Nah, I don’t get too worried about that in the aggregate. Jeff wrote about this a while ago, too – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/did-bumgarner-and-shields-throw-too-man…

3:10
John: Rotation in a deep 12 team Sale, Cueto, Paxton, Nola, J Ross, Lynn, Nova, Conley, Skaggs, S Miller feels more solid than good. What say you?

3:10
Paul Sporer: I really like it. Two aces, strong upside plays, steady guys, lottery tickets. Covered all the bases

3:10
Sean: Do you trust Tanaka’s health? Steamer’s 205 IP projection seems aggressive

3:11
Paul Sporer: Why? He’s added innings yearly and there’s nothing in his performance to suggest he’s ailing. Knowing of the UCL sprain makes ppl more afraid of him, but a lot of guys have sprains that we don’t know about. It’s not that uncommon. I don’t think he has MORE injury risk than normal. Love him as a #2 this year

3:12
Brownie: Try to make this long question short. 12 team 5×5 (4 keeper max). Keeper rules are 14 round is latest, players moves ahead 3 rounds each year kept, ie. 14th becomes 11th. Penalized for keeping in round one with 2 keeper spots. My 4 are T Turner (14th), N Synd (11th), K Bryant (8th) and Klubot (6th). Rizzo in 3rd, not keeping, mainly due to better value and also the penality I would face next year. Trading him for draft picks. Does a 6th round and 17th round (keeper round) for my 14th and 23rd round sound fair?

3:12
Paul Sporer: ya that trade works, espec. for someone you’re just not keeping anyway

3:13
Dave: What in the world are we supposed to be doing with JD Martinez right now?

3:13
Paul Sporer: Praying

3:13
Derrick: Justin Turner’s chances of being a low tier 2 3B in 17 (Seager type)?

3:13
Paul Sporer: Very high. He’s criminally underrated.

3:13
Hi: Where do you think Kershaw should go in a 10 team H2H points league?

3:13
Paul Sporer: Top 5

3:13
Risky: McCullers, Nova, & Shoemaker anchor my starting staff. Am I crazy? I don’t trust pitching & would rather load up on offense settling for some high risk/high reward pitching

3:14
Paul Sporer: A little crazy, yeah, but it’s plan you’ve committed to so it can be managed. Just stay diligent and supplement the staff if they don’t pan out as planned.

3:14
MarinerDan: Any argument that Freddie Freeman should be the #2 ranked 1B?

3:14
Paul Sporer: Not for me, no

3:14
Marc: Tanaka or Matz?

3:14
Paul Sporer: Tanaka for sure

3:14
Henry: How worried should I be about having a $25 Jason Kipnis on my team for Fangraphs points?

3:14
Paul Sporer: Eeek, pretty worried, sorry

3:14
Don Von Handburger: I’ll probably need a late-round steals guy for my mixed league. Which of Jose Peraza, Jose Reyes, Dyson, or Jankowski do you like best? Set aside the value of their SS-eligbility or lack thereof. Are they just close enough I can flip a coin?

3:15
Paul Sporer: I don’t think Peraza will be available late. Gimme Dyson or Jank

3:16
Jose Peraza: Am i being over-hyped? Should my owner not trade me for guys like A. Diaz or Josh Bell? <NL only Keeper league, these players all have around the same contract and $ value>

3:16
Paul Sporer: I get the hype. Could be a major SB asset for sure. I might deal for Diaz if I had other SBs, but not for Bell in any situation

3:16
Minty: Do you prefer Bellinger/Fulmer or Beni in an OBP keeper?

3:16
Paul Sporer: Belly/Fulmer

3:17
Justin: Can keep Greg Polanco as a 4th rounder in a points league, is that an overpay?

3:17
Paul Sporer: No, HUGE on him this year.

3:17
Evil Goatee Paul: Is an outfield of A. Pollock, S. Marte, S. Piscotty, B. Buxton, and H. Renfroe a little too risky going into the season?

3:17
Paul Sporer: A smidge perhaps bc of Pollock’s groin injury, but it’s workable.

3:18
Brian: It doesn’t look like he’ll start the year in left for the Jays, but could Dalton Pompey be a post hype kinda stud guy this year?

3:19
Paul Sporer: Yes, the combo of skills plus potential playing time is nice. Though he is battling a concussion right now and those can be awful

3:20
Bert Campaneris: For the first time ever… I drafted Kershaw. Then, this morning on the way to work, I was listening to you guys talk about the “Lockdown Studs”, and how you both prefer to stay off that tier based on risk. After drafting both Kershaw and Thor… I feel like the famous Homer gif:

3:20
Paul Sporer: LOOOOOOL. That’s just bc we’re arrogant enough to think we can mine the mid and late rounds for SP talent. Nothing *wrong* with Kershaw/Thor combo

3:20
Paul Sporer: In fact, it’s really hot

3:21
Seth Lugo: I have no chance at the #5 now with Gsellman’s continual Spring pitching, but am I gonna get 10-15 starts? and will I be decent?

3:21
Paul Sporer: Ya, I think he’s a solid NL only stash

3:21
Jim: Who is the best value C for this season?

3:22
Paul Sporer: Maybe Welington Castillo?

3:22
Jack: lmao

3:22
Paul Sporer: Woo, I made you laugh an hour ago!

3:23
Paul Sporest: How much do names impact whether you take the question?

3:23
Paul Sporer: LOL

3:23
Andrew : Is this the year nick castellanos puts it all together

3:23
Paul Sporer: He was doing that last year until the injury, so I think we see him continue to develop

3:23
Sleeper Star: Think Bradley Zimmer will have much of a fantasy impact in a 12-team standard 5×5 league in 2017? What do you think his stats will look like this season?

3:24
Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t draft him in 12 tm unless reserve rosters are huge, but I do think he can come up and make noise. Been vocal about Naquin being pushed this year, though he is rakin in spring trying to make me look silly, but at 30+% K rate, he won’t hold up

3:25
Andrew: Trout/Kiermier/Moustakas or Thor/Dee/Trumbo? 12 team, 5×5 roto. Thanks.

3:25
Paul Sporer: Trout side

3:25
I Hate Seeing This: The chat is over. Goodbye!

3:25
Bert Campaneris: Twitch(ing) anytime soon?

3:25
Paul Sporer: Perhaps tonight, otherwise when I get back from NY

3:25
Andrew : Is nola the guy we saw in the first half of 2016 or the second half

3:25
Paul Sporer: Depends on the elbow for sure

3:25
Malik: Keep or throw back Hyun Jin-Ryu $1 in an 11 team keeper?

3:26
Paul Sporer: Mixed? Throw back but maybe re-buy for a buck depending how the backend of your roster shapes up. Only reason I don’t keep is bc you may like someone better at $1

3:27
Mike: Regarding Anderson 4 and Hendricks 5, Maddon says he wants to keep Lester and Anderson apart in the rotation, and he can’t do that if Anderson takes the 5 spot in the rotation.

3:27
Paul Sporer: Boom, thanks for the info!

3:27
Brant: I know you like Gausman. Do you prefer him over Michael Fulmer between #145-155?

3:28
Paul Sporer: I have Fulmer higher, but they are in the same tier so the difference is negligible. In other words, flip a coin or take your preference.

3:28
Greggy: If I believe Kevin Maitan will be the best player in baseball in 5 years have I drunk too much of the Kool-Aid?

3:28
Paul Sporer: Or too much of something else

3:28
Lars: Keep waffling on #2 catcher off the board after Posey. Sanchez or Lucroy: who you got?

3:28
Paul Sporer: Lucroy

3:28
Brian: Would you add Knebel as a Feliz owner? That would make 5 pen arms for me along with Herrera, KRod, Nate Jones

3:29
Paul Sporer: Ya if you can afford the spot. I like Feliz as a cheap option, but he’s hardly rock solid

3:29
Keeoers: Average league: Already keeping Odor, Marte, Edwin. Keep one more of Springer, Staton, Russel, Strasburg, or Yu. Leaning towards Stanton.

3:29
Paul Sporer: Go with your gut. I might personally go Springer, but the pair is close

3:30
Cookie: Greg Bird now a top-150 buy with his massive spring?

3:30
Paul Sporer: no, that’s too aggressive

3:30
Paul Sporer: and I really like Bird, but that’s veeerrryyy aggressive

3:30
JP: Are there any good sources for crowd sourced auction prices? Need to know what my league mates are thinking.

3:30
Paul Sporer: Not that I know of, but honestly I’m not sure they’d have much value. Auctions are just so unique.

3:31
Don Von Handburger: If my side league is a no-money, 10-team shallow mixed league full of novices, am I creepy for noticing an unusually high innings limit and trying to stream SPs and use RP-eligible starters etc….?

3:31
Paul Sporer: LOL you’re not creepy, just trying to win

3:31
Evil Goatee Paul: When is the last time you thought about John Rocker?

3:31
Paul Sporer: Three seconds ago!

3:31
Matty Ice: What is my comfort level with Tommy Joseph as my starting 1B?

3:32
Paul Sporer: Low unless it’s a super deep lg and you’re stacked elsewhere

3:32
JP: Final two keeper spots: 2 of Blackmon ($31), Hendricks ($8), Peraza ($8)

3:32
Paul Sporer: Hendricks and Peraza at those costs

3:32
ChicagoCardinal: Re: Stanton: Do you think his backing off the plate will also sap some power?

3:32
Paul Sporer: Nah, he’s just so obscenely powerful

3:33
Andrew : Any expectations for Keon broxton

3:33
Paul Sporer: Certainly. Power-speed guy who Ks too much but can take a BB. Playing time is there early. Time to perform

3:34
seth: who are you most likely to break the auction bank for (if any): Trout, Kershaw, Bryant, or Goldy? Do you generally go for stars and scrubs or even production in Roto Auction leagues?

3:34
Paul Sporer: Trout and Goldy. I’m more stars n scrubs

3:35
Evil Goatee Paul: Hey Paul Sporest…were you not happy with the answer you received from Eno just a few hours ago?

3:35
Paul Sporer: Roasted!

3:35
mario mendoza: Any hope left for Souza?

3:36
Paul Sporer: Ya, can be a 20/15 guy with some health

3:36
MarinerDan: Machado’s value is high, no doubt. But he went from 20 steals to zero last year. Do you see him getting back into double-digit steals this year? If so, you could make an argument that he should be taken off the board at no. 2.

3:36
Paul Sporer: I don’t really see him stealing a ton, no.

3:37
Greg: Gsellman or Wacha in a standard 5×5?

3:37
Paul Sporer: Wacha

3:37
Edwin Encarnacion: Should I trade myself for George Springer in a keeper league?

3:38
Paul Sporer: Yeah, I probably would. Similarly ranked, take the younger guy

3:38
Pablo: What do you think of Rizzo/Correa at the turn in a 12-team draft?

3:38
Paul Sporer: LOVE Correa, but prefer someone else to Rizzo. Cabrera or Votto if you want 1B

3:38
Recca: Carlos Santana or Hanley Ramirez? League counts OBP not AVG.

3:39
Paul Sporer: they’re just about even. I’d take Ramirez personally

3:40
El Guapo: I traded Kershaw and Rizzo for Scherzer, Springer, and $30 in cap space. Am I an idiot?

3:40
Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think so

3:40
Wil: Paul – how many beers would it take you to be convinced that Ryan Schimpf is a top 15 MI option?

3:40
Paul Sporer: I don’t drink anymore so I’d probably be lit on like 2-3 and take him as my starting 2B lol

3:40
MarinerDan: Are you taking anyone OTHER than Mookie Betts at #2?

3:41
Paul Sporer: Goldy, Arenado, Harper are all considerations there, too. I don’t think Betts is LOCKDOWN #2

3:41
Greg: You buying any shares of mitch haniger this year? If so, how shallow of a league is too shallow. For a $1 he seems like a contributor in even shallow leagues.

3:42
Paul Sporer: Yes, Jason scooped him for us in the LABR reserve rounds and I’ll get at least one more. A dollar gamble in shallower leagues is viable just to see. Worst case is you cut him. So many late options in 10 and 12 tms, you might as well go for who you think could breakout big time

3:42
Bobby: Would you give Sano a 3 year, $15 deal or 1 year, $5 deal in a 20 team mixed? My last tough decision.

3:43
Paul Sporer: I’d just go the one year

3:43
Zach: Can Vogelbach be a top 15 First baseman if he gets the playing time this year?

3:43
Paul Sporer: He was just sent out to AAA, but either way, no I don’t think

3:44
ChicagoCardinal: Take it easy there Pauk, there’s people holding chatters accountable today. One fine man asked Eno if he is an alkie early.

3:44
Paul Sporer: Omg

3:44
Martin: Is Schoop a 2B version of JJ Hardy? Super cheap MI power that’s always overlooked?

3:44
Paul Sporer: Interesting comp. Ya I like Schoop at his price even if he doesn’t really improve

3:44
Renard: Why does Votto seem to be ranked so much lower than Rizzo and Cabrera? What am I missing here?

3:45
Paul Sporer: Overrating of the lineup penalty for him in Cincy.

3:45
Sam: Berrios’ WBC appearance last night.. reason for hype? Hope for 2017 relevance?

3:45
Paul Sporer: I had hype for him prior to the WBC. An uber prospect who faltered in the bigs but was still great in the minors so it wasn’t a totally lost year. Targeting him late for sure

3:45
MarinerDan: Would you bump Bumgarner ahead of Scherzer this year given the finger issue? What about Sale?

3:45
Paul Sporer: Totally OK with Bum getting moved to 2

3:46
Ian: Final pick in NL league for ’17 only – Almora or Cahill (if in SD rotation)?

3:46
Paul Sporer: Almora

3:46
Concerned Citizen: Can Wong hold the 2b job? If so, does he avoid a platoon? Do I even want him in there against lefties?

3:47
Paul Sporer: He *can*, but it’s time to show it. I think he will lose time vL even if he does advance this year bc Gyorko rakes lefties

3:47
Knucklebear: Who do like more to contribute this year, Reynaldo Lopez or Francis Martes

3:47
Paul Sporer: Lopez

3:47
mario mendoza: Could you elaborate why are you so huge on Polanco? Steamer, ZiPS, Pod projections, and xStats are all pretty yawn inspiring — basically 100 wRC+

3:51
Paul Sporer: Ya they see him being the same guy he’s been to date, but I just think his power evolves and yields more homers and base hits offering a .280/30/20 upside. He has 1551 MLB PA so the projection systems are just going to lean on that, they won’t project growth. It’s more of an eye test thing, but I see a guy just scratching his surface. Furthermore, his triple slash could be more of a 105-110 and still wind up as a breakout if it’s with 25/25/90/90 in 155 gms. Multiple paths to improvement for El Coffee

3:51
Greg: Who do you like more for 2017: Morales or Thames? Also, Polanco or Yelich? Thanks!

3:51
Paul Sporer: Morales over Thames and Polanco over Yelich, though Polly and Yelich are a razor’s edge apart, tbh. Yelich is my backup plan if I miss Polanco

3:52
JD15: How much value does Jose Ramirez add if he gets 2B eligible especially in MIF leagues?

3:53
Paul Sporer: Any added positions help a player. I may value that flexibility higher than others, but I love having 3-5 guys who can move around, espec. in Only leagues or 15+ team mixers bc then it opens me up to more free agent possibilities. Nothing worse than having a nice bat on the wire and I can’t get him bc no spot for him

3:53
Paul Sporer: BRB – gotta take Charlotte out

3:56
Paul Sporer:

4:01
Justin: I’ve definitely posted this too many times and I don’t think you answered it when it posted earlier, but this is driving me nuts…..Points league dilemma – can keep Bregman, Schwarber and Sanchez for last round value, but if I keep all 3 I can’t keep one of Donaldson or Sale. League values K’s and OBP/average the most, leaning toward no Bregman. Any advice?

4:02
Paul Sporer: But what are Sale & JD’s costs?

4:02
Ultimate Boner Jamzzzzzz: Why is OBP and SLG better then AVG and OPS? My league is debating which two to use for hitters rate stats.

4:03
Paul Sporer: Not sure one is better tbh

4:03
Burke: Who lowers their walk rate the most: Ray, McCullers, Rodon, Liriano

4:06
Paul Sporer: Rodon already lowered his a bunch last year, so I’ll say McCullers

4:07
Guest: Do you think 2016’s record HR totals were merely a one-year outlier or the beginning of a long-term trend? Seems as though hitters incorporated new knowledge last year and pitchers might swing back in 2017.

4:09
Paul Sporer: I don’t know that they necessarily rise again, but I think they stay relatively stable. Swing changes, the ball, and hot weather all contributed IMO. Some pitchers will counter, but runs didn’t go up THAT much to necessitate a major pitcher change

4:09
coconut: Keep Rendon (18th round) or Benintendi (22nd) in standard H2H?

4:09
Paul Sporer: Rendon

4:09
Andrew : Think Carlos Martinez can finish as a top 10 sp?

4:09
Paul Sporer: Possible, yes. I think he’s on the ace track.

4:09
MarinerDan: Am I undervaluing guys like Quintana — I hate guys that don’t punch people out. What are your thoughts on that ilk (e.g., Quintana, Stroman, Iwakuma)?

4:11
Paul Sporer: We all love strikeouts, but the absence of a major K rate doesn’t prevent a guy from being successful. Q had a league average mark which means he’s above average for fantasy purposes. If you’re pairing Thor and Q or Scherzer and Stro, that’s a great combo

4:11
Ted: Steven Matz or Zack Greinke in a keep forever league?

4:11
Paul Sporer: Matz. I have Greinke ranked higher, but the keep forever closes the gap and has me leaning Matz even with his obvious health concerns

4:11
YOAT: What’s with the poop emojis?

4:11
Paul Sporer: Not sure. Someone let their kid read the chat today?

4:12
Evil Jeff Karstens: Freddy Galvis is……good?

4:12
Paul Sporer: poop emoji on that comment coming in 3… 2…

4:12
Paul Sporer: lol I don’t think he is that good, no

4:12
Waka: What do you expect out of a full season for Dallas K? 200+ innings w ~3.7 era, 170 Ks sound fair?

4:13
Paul Sporer: If the shoulder holds up, yes, but I am worried about his health so I’d bump expectations down to 180 knowing that 200+ is a reachable upside

4:13
Burk: 12 team new ottoneu league, auction is paused until Monday. Have Kershaw, Maeda, Eickhoff as my SP so far. Carrasco then Felix are best pitchers remaining. Not much money left for anyone.

4:13
Burk: Do I go after one of them or save my money to get lots of $3-5 pitchers?

4:14
Paul Sporer: If the cost is fair, I’d roster either and then supplement them with some gamble arms

4:14
ChicagoCardinal: Thanks as always for reading any questions you get to!

4:14
Paul Sporer: No problem. Y’all are killing it filling the queue so I apologize that I can’t get to all of em

4:14
Joe: Am I screwed with a rotation of Lester, Odorrizi, Iwakuma, VV, Nova, Walker, Cotton, and Kennedy in a 12 team points? Auction prices for pitching were totally insane.

4:15
Paul Sporer: No, I think this can work, especially if Lester stays ace-like. Good balance between risk and high floor, too.

4:15
Waka: Why does no one like Nova? He’s out of the AL east and in NL, has Ray Searage watching over him, and an excellent OF defense. Is it just the lack of Ks? Cuz I think an 8k/9 really isn’t a reach

4:15
Paul Sporer: Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

4:16
Paul Sporer: I’m the high guy on him – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/march-rankings-update-starting-pitche… – 8 K9 is reachable, but I think a solid ERA and a low WHIP is where his value comes from

4:16
Chad: I know Charlie Morton is real, but is he FOR REAL?

4:17
Paul Sporer: It’s allll going to come down to health, something that has eluded him throughout his career. But I buy the skills and changes that have yielded the new velo

4:17
Tig: Better bet for holds this year — Arodys Vizcaino or Bruce Rondon?

4:17
Paul Sporer: Rondon

4:17
Waka: If Kiermaier continues the BB increases couldn’t he basically be Michael Brantley lite?

4:18
Paul Sporer: Very lite as it relates to Brantley because I don’t see the AVG getting higher than, say, .270, but I do like KK a lot

4:18
Chad: Is Amir Garrett worth a flyer in a 12 teamer?

4:19
Paul Sporer: Watchlist in 12 team unless you have a huge reserve roster (like 8 or more)

4:19
dave in slc: man..my AL auction got crazy and my pitching is anything but solid. Lets just say I need a good year from your Detroit boys Boyd and Norris!

4:19
Paul Sporer: I’m intrigued by both for sure. I think at least one pans out

4:19
MarinerDan: Is Glasnow ready to do big, big things as soon as this year?

4:20
Paul Sporer: Not in my opinion. Command is going to be an issue at that size

4:20
JD15: Are you buying or selling Skaggs and Shelby Miller?

4:20
Paul Sporer: Can buy either at their low cost, but prefer Miller.

4:20
baby bull : Cobb,Pineda,Shoemaker,Skaggs,Cotton,Boyd,Bauer,Morton who are my starting 5? ERA,WHIP,K/9

4:22
Paul Sporer: Pinata, Shoe, Cotton, Cobb, and Morton (use Morton while he’s healthy!)

4:23
Brian: What does Drury look like for a full year? Did I read right that he’s in the two spot in the order?

4:24
Paul Sporer: Hadn’t seen anything on #2 spot, but that’d be awesome for his R/RBI. I think he can go .270/25 with those R/RBI being dependent on lineup spot

4:24
4:24
Paul Sporer: Toles, but I have shares of both

4:25
Peter Pyle: Wanting to trade my Gregory P. for a SP 1 for 1. Can you give me an opinion of what pitcher would be fair to go for?

4:25
Paul Sporer: Probably eyeing the 12-20 range – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/march-rankings-update-starting-pitche…

4:25
Chad: Gerrit Cole or Marcus Stroman as my last keeper?

4:27
Paul Sporer: They’re 4 ranks apart for me, so it’s tough to differentiate much, but I’ll go Cole.

4:27
Coop: Why does Jason hate Eno so much?! Even if it’s reasonable. Which of them do you hate more?

4:27
Paul Sporer: LOLOLOLOL (podcast joke for anyone unaware)… I love both, I’m just stuck in the middle of this hate-fest!

4:27
JD15: Any chance Starlin takes the empty SS spot during Did

4:28
Paul Sporer: I think it’s likely, tbh.

4:28
JD15: ‘s absence

4:28
Bo: Hey Paul, which side do you like in a Betts/Bumgarner for Arenado/Turner trade? 12-team 5×5, keep 4 forever.

4:28
Paul Sporer: Which Turner?

4:29
Dan: Steven Matz, Lucas Giolito, Alex Reyes, Julio Urias. Rank their next 5-10 years.

4:30
Paul Sporer: That’s sooooooo far out, but I’ll play – Urias, Giolito, Matz, Reyes — love Reyes, but hard to project too much for the guy who is currently out with the TJ. TJ isn’t a certainty, though it’s often treated as such

4:30
RAGS: Justin Turner or Ryan Schimpf in an NL only OBP league? Schimpf has 2B, probably more health, and a handful more HR, vs the consistency, R, RBI and OBP of Turner?

4:30
Paul Sporer: Turner by a mile, tbh

4:31
Paul Sporer: Well, maybe not a mile… I missed the OBP factor. But still easily Justin for me

4:32
Greg: Upside value of A Wood in 12 team NL keeper 5×5

4:32
Paul Sporer: I’m coming around to it, though I’ve never been a huge Alex Wood fan

4:32
Bird: Neris or Glover as a speculative add? H2H 14 team in need of bp help…

4:32
Paul Sporer: Glover closer to the role. Gomez has been named in Philly

4:32
Guy: Does Matt Strahm end up in the KC rotation this year? Is he more valuable as SP or RP?

4:32
Paul Sporer: I think he has a good chance to, yes. More valuable as SP.

4:33
Jewel: Matt Harvey!!!

4:33
marichal: All other things being equal, who do you want on your team in 2017: Domingo Santana or Robbie Ray.

4:35
Paul Sporer: Ray

4:35
Evil Goatee Paul: How long after you draft a fantasy team are you looking to trade in that league?

4:35
Paul Sporer: I’m slow to trade. I’m not usually LOOKING to do so unless an injury strikes, otherwise I’m interested in seeing how the guys I drafted pan out

4:36
4:36
Paul Sporer: Kluber for me

4:36
Justin: Follow Up – Donaldson is a 1st and Sale is a 2. Schwarber, Sanchez, and Bregman are all last round value (picked over last three picks). Waffling by the minute, now leaning toward dropping Schwarbs

4:37
Paul Sporer: I’m not even a Schwarber guy, but as a last round or last three rounds, you gotta keep those 3. I’d probably chop Sale and just stack pitching in the draft.

4:37
Evil Goatee Paul: What is your beef with Sean Manaea? You and Justin are much more conservative than the field.

4:41
Paul Sporer: No beef, I like Manaea, I just think he’s a bit overpriced. It’s one of those cases where I have to go against a pitcher I like just bc the price is too high IMO

4:41
Robert: When are March Rankings coming out?

4:41
Paul Sporer: They’re out. I just need to update the spreadsheet which I should have done by tomorrow for drafts this weekend

4:41
ChicagoCardinal: Paul – Please predict the next 2 presidential elections

4:41
Paul Sporer: Kanye/DeFranco 2020

4:41
Chris: Dude how’s Charlotte doing?

4:42
Paul Sporer: She’s Gucci. Love this damn dog!

4:42
Dinger-Dongs: Should I get the new iPhone or the Pixel. Same price. Keeper league.

4:42
Paul Sporer: LOL. I’m an iPhone guy and have had a hard time getting my mind around a switch since I have an iPad and MacBook, but I hear the Pixel is lit

4:42
Bob Johnson?: Thanks for the regular chats, Paul… especially during draft season.

4:42
Paul Sporer: No problem!

4:43
Paul Sporer: Going to have to wrap up here very soon, but hopefully this has helped. Gonna do a few more quicker ones before leaving.

4:43
Mama: Traded my $11 Hendricks for $11 Duffy. That sp/rp for Duffy was the kicker for me, and your hype on Duffy didn’t hurt.

4:43
Paul Sporer: I dig that

4:43
Stuart: Strasburg or G.Cole?

4:43
Paul Sporer: Stras

4:43
Rudy L: Please rank these SPs: Leake, Lynn, A.Wood, Musgrove, Skaggs, Nolasco, Straily, Fiers.

4:44
jack: thoughts on cam bedrosian?

4:44
Paul Sporer: Should take that job if healthy

4:44
Roll Fizzlebeef: Any thoughts on how the SS job will shake out in Arizona? Owings, Marte, Ahmed, Drury and Descalsco all seem to be in the mix.

4:44
Paul Sporer: Drury’s locked in at 2B. I think it’s Owings v. Marte. I kinda like Owings this year. Been around for a while but still just 25

4:44
ben: who do you think is the nats closer on opening day? and will they last? if not, who is the guy to own there

4:45
Paul Sporer: I’m getting into the Glover hype. His stuff is NASTY, seems like he could be this year’s Edwin Diaz. If he fails, I think they trade for someone in June

4:45
Flipflop: which side? $4 J Ramirez + $5 E Diaz (2 yrs each) vs. $2 Bregman (2 yrs) and $7 Osuna 1 yr?

4:47
Paul Sporer: That’s really fair so I’m torn on feeling committed to one side. Love Diaz, but closers are shaky enough as a group that I think I prefer a $2 Bregman for 2 years above all else in that quartet

4:47
Johnny5Alive: $8 to much to keep gsellman in 13 team NL only roto league?

4:47
Paul Sporer: Assuming some inflation, it works. He’ll probably be around that at auction anyway so if you believe in him, lock him down

4:48
Jeff: Which one do you like more for $10: Bregman or Hendricks?

4:48
Paul Sporer: Bregman. I’m not a huge Hendricks guy

4:49
Paul Sporer: OK y’all thanks for hanging out. I gotta get going. As always you can reach me on Twitter (@sporer), follow me on Snapchat (psporer), and check out my Twitch streams (twitch.tv/psporer24) where I stream MLB The Show (new gm is out Tuesday!!) and OOTP (beta of new gm is on my computer!!). Take care… bye





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

Comments are closed.