Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 7th, 2019

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, let’s talk some baseball on this glorious Friday afternoon!

hscer: good pod as usual. here’s a vote for not trading Ketel for Ramirez

Paul Sporer: Thanks! I love Ketel and I’m definitely worried about Ramirez

Jerry: Who’s the better IL stash: Severino, Glasnow, or Taillon?

Paul Sporer: I like them in the order you’ve listed

Christian: I’m running out of patience with Donaldson and Puig…any hopes they do better than this?

Paul Sporer: Donaldson’s bee a lot more palatable than Puig, but I understand the frustration with them. Not sure you can do much. I can’t envision cutting them even in 10-team mixers

Yants: I need positive reinforcement on Eloy. He’s been so bad and every week I’m flirting with the idea of dropping him.

Paul Sporer: I think right now the best thing we can say is that it’s been 37 games (147 PA). That’s such a tiny sample. Really lookin for at least 250 PA before worrying too much

Drew: After saying Miggy had a nice batted ball profile last week and that he was due for a bump, I finally had to drop him today.

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s my top cut this week in the Main Event

PM: So far who is the player you were most wrong about early on in 2019? Maybe one you were higher and one where you were lower than the industry

Paul Sporer: I didn’t see any of this coming from Joey Gallo. Sucks so bad that he’s hurt. I was pretty high on Darvish… sick life.

Jay Bruce is not afraid: Nicky Lopez a hold in deep league?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d like to hold a bit longer. Not even 100 PA yet.

Steve: How much more leash are you giving Martin Perez in a 12 teamer? The K’s have vanished the last 3 starts and am worried the HR regression is coming

Paul Sporer: If you see someone you like, I’d be fine moving on. I chopped him in my 10-teamer.

Evan C.: Rank these starting pitchers in Dynasty Roto (5×5): J. Gray, Duplantier, Montas, Miley, Flaherty, A. Sanchez

Paul Sporer: Flaherty, Montas, Duplantier, Miley, Gray, Sanchez

Not the droids/prospects: Hi Paul. Thanks for all the work. I know they’re not the prospects people wanted, but I’m enjoying Myles Straw and Derek Fisher in my AL Only. Does either stick? Which would you cut first?

Paul Sporer: I think Straw is more fantasy viable bc of the speed. I still don’t understand how Alvarez and Tucker keep getting passed over

Fangraph’s Lurker: 10 teamer non-keeper or dynasty. my pitching is awesome but offense needs a jolt. who’s trade bait out of: nola, marquez, paddack, greinke, soroka, minor, giolito, odorizzi? (I have glasnow on IL too).

Paul Sporer: Think several of those guys would generate some interest in the market. I’d dangle Soroka, Greinke, and Paddack and see what’s out there

Travioli: Any chance Nola returns to his ace status from last year? Or do we have to get used to a season of up and down performances?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he gets back to 2018, but I think he’ll be better than this rest of season (~3.50ish ERA, 1.20ish WHIP)

Avila not Avila: Going off the pod, I’ve been offered Ramirez for my Tanaka.  In a vacuum, relatively fair?  Team is fairly balanced though overall a little better offensively than pitching.

Paul Sporer: Ya I think that’s worth taking the gamble. I’m nervous about Ramirez, but that’s a good enough discount

What’s Eaton Gilbert Grape?: Is Adam Eaton useful in a 16-team, standard 5×5 keeper league? He doesn’t seem to do anything particularly well and I can’t even flip him for Nicky Lopez or Adam Hasely.

Paul Sporer: Ya, 16 teams is pretty deep. He hasn’t been great, but surely he’s useful in a league that deep

Richard: Do you think Josh James is going to get the next shot at starting for Houston?

Paul Sporer: Maybe not the NEXT one, but I think he will eventually get a look

Jesus Aguilar : I feel like people should drop me. But what if they need power?

Paul Sporer: Surely they can find someone else. NL Only is about the only format where I’m holding him. Easy cut.

Drew: David Fletcher: All Star?

Paul Sporer: He could be, but I haven’t looked to see how the MI pool plays out in the AL

Neo: Paul how is your memorial day nfbc team doing ? I went pitcher heavy in mine and so far not so good for me

Paul Sporer: Sitting 5th and doing alright. I have literally 0 SB lol

Please Plesac Me: With Carrasco down (such sad news) Plesac might get a longer run. He was already on your (excellent) list, but does this raise your interest?

Paul Sporer: Wait for today’s Fireside for a deeper dive on him (out later). Being in the AL Central certainly helps. Eager to see what he can do tonight v. NYY

Drew: Any hope for Starling Marte or Lorenzo Cain? Ready to punt on steals but nobody is willing to give me anything except maybe Mancini. Both for Mancini seems crazy.

Paul Sporer: What’s wrong w/Marte? He’s been perfectly fine. Cain hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been someone I’m too worried about. I’d just hold em.

DonJulio: Thoughts on Luis Urias given the news (rotoworld) that he should be up soon?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Urias fan. He certainly can’t be worse this time around. I could see him having a nice summer

Jorge: Your ranking of Felix Pena really surprised me and he’s available in a deep league I’m in.  Can you elaborate on him, and does last start impact your thinking?

Paul Sporer: I got a couple comments which kinda surprised me. He’d been excellent before the meltdown in his latest outing. He was pretty good last year, too. I just think he’s really solid and gets a better win opportunity by having an opener in front of him

Brett: OPS league… Moncada or Odor ROS?

Paul Sporer: Moncada by miles. Odor isn’t good.

Scott TINSTAAPP: We’ve seen this before from Freddy Peralta but I’m still tempted to start him in Houston next week against a weakened Astros lineup.  Please advise if I’m a masochist.

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t like that idea at all

Drew: Starting to love Jurado. Tons of sink. You buying?

Paul Sporer: Maybe some AL Only love? Not enough swing and miss and too many hits allowed.

Mark: are caleb smith and trevor bauer buy lows right now?

Paul Sporer: I can’t see anyone selling low on Smith after a couple bumpy starts in his last three. Honestly, I’m not even sure Bauer is coming at a major discount. His believers are pretty into him so I doubt the person with him in your league is eager to sell low

Webster: Duplantier or Plesac Ros?

Paul Sporer: I lean Duplantier

benjamin mutton: Paddack or Boyd for the rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: I’m a #BoydBoy

Mike: Who do you prefer ROS- Kershaw vs Price? Both have the injury risk but both are pitching well and can rack up the Ws

Paul Sporer: Got Kersh https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/june-starting-pitcher-rankings-2/

Jay Bruce is not afraid: Should I discover the fountain of youth with Ponce de Leon in Miami this week?

Paul Sporer: League context matters, but anytime you pick on Miami, it’s a solid idea

Josh: Do you think Lorenzo Cain and Caleb Smith for Trey Mancini is a good value deal?

Paul Sporer: For the person trading Mancini

hooha: How do you value Rafael Devers in a keeper league?  Do you think he is a top 50 player moving forward?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Devers fan. He’s probably more top 75 in a dynasty league

Ted: In 12-teamers, you think Archer or Marco Gonzales are cuttable? Considering selling for pennies on the dollar, but also wondering if it’s even worth the effort.

Paul Sporer: Not sure you’d get anything of note anyway. Might as well just hit the wire – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/june-starting-pitcher-rankings-2/

BlueJayMatt: 15 team standard 5×5 H2H league – rank my five(!) 2B/3B types Baez, La Stella, Muncy, Shaw, McMahon

Paul Sporer: Baez, Muncy, La Stella, McMahon, Shaw

Mooxer: Will Dozier come back strong from this injury ?

Paul Sporer: I have no idea, lol

Paul Sporer: I hope, though

TP: I’m sure this is one of the more popular questions you get, but what in the world do we do with Austin Riley?! He obviously can’t keep up this pace, but it’s so hard to trade him. To sell high, the other owner won’t want to give up an established star and anything else feels like you’re giving away Riley for nothing

Paul Sporer: Ya I think you just ride it out. We get all excited for these prospects and then when one finally pans out, everyone just asks about trading him. Why not just enjoy him??

Obviously if you can truly sell high and better than team, then by all means, but most of us don’t play in leagues where ppl are going to be taken advantage of and grossly overpay for a Riley. So I’m just riding it out and enjoying my find.

DonJulio: Do you think Gallen is worth stashing? His AAA game log is ridiculous. When should he be up?

Paul Sporer: C’mon y’all, coming light on context today making these tough to answer. How many teams? What kinda reserve?

Ted: I’ve got an offer on the table for Ryu – he’s a beast and I love him when he’s healthy, but I feel like the dude is never healthy. I know you’ve got him ranked high, but how much of a discount, if any, do you have for injury concern?

Paul Sporer: I’m sure it’s built into the offer given his IP counts. And if you’re afraid that you won’t get another 80 IP rest of season, let alone another 100, you might consider moving out for a more stable asset. Or at least perceived more stable. Pitching is risky no matter what, though, so even the “safe” guy you’re getting is a huge risk.

royce clayton: we starting boyd against minnesota today?

Paul Sporer: I am, but I only have him in deeper leagues. In a 10- or 12-teamer, I can totally get behind passing. They’re 2nd in wRC+ against southpaws

Mike: Do you agree with ZIPs ROS projection of 4.61 era for Caleb Smith? he definitely has the homeritis but that seems a bit steep

Paul Sporer: I do not. I see more mid-to-high 3.00s with a buncha Ks. HRs are the fly in the ointment

AF: Is Cal Quantrill ascending into a top 50 SP? 13.7% SwStr and he has a complete arsenal (94.5 mph & 12.4% SwStr on 4 seam, 19.8% SwStr on change and 19.4% SwStr on slider).

Paul Sporer: Top 50 is SUUUUPER aggressive. There’s some intrigue, but he’s nowhere near top 50 right now. He’s got a bit of a HR issue that I’m keeping an eye on. I like the spec, but let’s chill out on Top 50 lol

Hyde: I’ve got Garver at C right now with Posey on IL.  Safe to drop Posey?

Paul Sporer: Can’t just keep him on IL?

Sporer4Life: why is Whit not running?  I think we all needed them SB’s

Paul Sporer: He was 3-for-6 in May. Not sure if there’s a nagging injury getting to him or if pitchers & catchers have just caught up, but he has the most CS w/5 so far

Paul Sporer: His sprint speed has come down a bit, but nothing overwhelming to explain this fall off

Mike: Are you holding Chavis in a shallow H2H obp league? seems like pitchers have figured him out

Paul Sporer: I dunno, that seems like an overreaction. Obviously he was out of his mind to start and was never going to maintain that level. Can’t a guy have a comedown period without being fully figured out? He had a 2-week run of .868 OPS from May 12th-27th before this recent ugly week. If anyone is cutting him, I’m picking him up

Aaron: If you were to do a 1-for-1 for Byron Buxton, which pitcher should I get in return?

Paul Sporer: Kenta Maeda?

Gizzard of Ozz: Is Ozzie Albies droppable in a 12-teamer? Niko Goodrum is sitting there on the waiver wire, doing all the things Ozzie is supposed to be doing.

Paul Sporer: Niko does nothing BETTER than Albies, though. Albies is ice cold of late, but Goodrum is poor man’s Albies – https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0…

Guest: Should Eloy be dropped in all redrafts?

Paul Sporer: I think he’d be instantly picked up. There’s a team in every league that can afford to stash him

Ivan Nova: Am I good?

Paul Sporer: At what?

BlueJayMatt: If you had to field a fantasy team made up from only one real life team which would you go with?

Paul Sporer: Dodgers

Burt Toast: Think Bumgarner improves pitching for a contender?

Paul Sporer: I kinda do, ya. We discussed him on yesterday’s pod and I made this exact point. Yes he’ll lose SF home park, but he hasn’t been great there this year anyway so I like the idea of an improved team context

Yan: I’ve had bad pitching all year long. Here are the guys that are in my rotation : Buehler-Nola-Maeda-Gibson-Nelson-Musgrove-Skaggs. (Kluber, Weaver IL) + Gallen stashed. Any hope for optmism? Which one should I let go first? There’s not much on the wire (Mahle, P.Lopez, Alcantara, Means, Gausman)

Paul Sporer: Damn that’s not even bad. Obv Nola hasn’t panned out and Buehler was bumpy to start, but Buehler, Maeda, and Gibson are all pitching well right now and Weaver was awesome before his injury. I still have love for Musgrove and Nelson JUST got back. I’d probably scoop Lopez over Skaggs, at least in the short term with Skaggs getting the Dodgers and Lopez getting the Pirates

Ted: So I don’t know if anyone has done a deep dive yet, but what’s the deal with Jo-Ram? He got off to a slow start last year too, but it wasn’t nearly this bad. I’m riding him for the steals, but he’s killing me everywhere else.

Paul Sporer: Is this sarcastic re: not sure if anyone’s done a deep dive?

Paul Sporer: I’ll defer to yesterday’s pod re: Ramirez – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-701-hit…

Mark: Who to drop w Clevinger coming back: M Perez, M Tanaka, T Richards.

Paul Sporer: Perez

Greg: In a 20 team dynasty league and was offered a big deal

Paul Sporer: Congrats!

Matt: Am I crazy to wonder how it could take Kimbrell 3 weeks to be ready to pitch? I assume he’s been throwing regularly – that combined with the fact that a RP only pitches an inning at a time should just leave him getting command/control ironed out at full strength, no? He shouldn’t need to build up arm strength.

Paul Sporer: Probably kinda crazy. Unless you’re a top flight athlete yourself, we have no idea what it takes so we often underrate things like this.

Kam: Everyone keeps ranking Gallen high on stash lists. As he’s already at 81 IP how many innings could he realistically pitch in the Majors. In redraft leagues I don’t see how he’s worth it.

Paul Sporer: Innings aren’t my concern. He threw 133 last year. There’s no reason he can’t log 175-180.

Porridge: Do we see better from Nelson this season?

Paul Sporer: LOL yes, can he get more than one start? 🙂

Yandy Dandy: AL Only: Would you trade Yandy and Thornton (both $1) for Hansel Robles? Need saves, but feels high. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: That does feel high. Kinda feel like one or the other for Robles should work

Orange WHIPs: Corey Seager or Didi Gregorious rest of the way? Only have space for one. Seager has been mashing the last month.

Paul Sporer: I’m going Seager here for sure

Eyebrows: Does David Bote ever get full playing time? I like the skills and am tempted to stash in a 12 team dynasty but playing time is a headache.

Paul Sporer: He’s starting to carve out some more time, but I’m not sure he’s going to be locked and loaded for full-time run barring an injury

Wasteland: While he’s playing and in a vacuum, is Myles Straw a top 15 SS option for roto leagues?

Paul Sporer: No, SS is insanely deep

Deep League Catchers: RoS: J Castro, A Barnes, Sisco

Paul Sporer: That’s the order

david: Ketel Marte has been so good in category leagues this year. How much are you buying?

Paul Sporer: A good bit. Jumped on the Ketel train coming into the season and I love what he’s done.

Kyle: Are you holding your boy Laureano in a 12-team keeper? He’s showing signs of life lately.

Paul Sporer: More like picking him back up, tbh. .284/.329/.475, 5 HR, 5 SB over his last 155 PA. I think he’s worth rostering pretty much everywhere right now (more like a reserve in 10-teamers, but everything beyond that he’s starter-worthy)

Jimmer: Are you a fan of what Renato Nunez is doing? Worth an add in a 12-team mixed?

Paul Sporer: He’s a lefty-killer so it’s hard to roster a short sider in 12-teamers. I’d monitor the schedule, but I can’t just blindly scoop him

Brood550: Is Stripling worth a stash in a 10 teamer?  Or should I just cut bait because the Dodgers are going to do to him what the Astros did with Mchugh and Peacock?

Paul Sporer: As much as I love Stripling, I can’t stash him in that shallow of a league without upwards of 6-7 reserves

Blockbuster: Vlad Jr. for Degrom? Fair trade in 3-year keeper league.

Paul Sporer: If the Vlad Jr. acquirer is selling for the future, sure

Garth: You were pretty low on Frankie Montas in your ROS ranks.  Why so?

Paul Sporer: He was ranked 40th… how is that low for someone with 70 good innings?

Chris: You buying into Josh Bell’s power this year? Can he reach 30+ homers?

Paul Sporer: Yeah at this point it’d be a major disappointment if he didn’t reach 30 this year. I think we get 17-20 more rest of season

bleepbloop: howie kendrick is having an amazing season with the bat per statcast, should I try to trade Muncy if I can get some value back and pick up Kendrick from FA?

Paul Sporer: I don’t HATE that, but league type matters bc if it’s a shallower league where playing time matters a lot, then Kendrick is a little tougher. Plus, he’s almost certainly getting dealt and it might not be into a starting role

Mike: would do move kershaw and dahl for m.ozuna and goldy in a h2h obp league? have a lot of top of the order guys and my rbis are lagging a bit. my pitching depth is ok

Paul Sporer: Ya I have no issues with that

Sean: Eddie Rosario and Lindor for Machado and JD Martinez.. Which side? (keeper league)

Paul Sporer: Prefer side A

NOT MACKEL: Would you trade David Dahl for Charlie Morton?

Paul Sporer: If I need an arm, absolutely. Big Morton fan

Dave: Do you think Luis Robert is worth a stash in 12-team re-draft leagues?

Paul Sporer: No, he hasn’t even reached Triple-A yet.

Tommy La Stella: Tommy La Stella

Paul Sporer: Tommy La Stella

Kyle: Trade Giolito and Carrasco for Verlander in 10 tm dynasty Roto league or is that too much?

Paul Sporer: No that works for me given that Carrasco will be out for a bit )(get well soon!). Good sell high on Gio to acquire a bona fide ace

Wasteland: Related to the Quantrill Q.  If Plesac shoves against the Yanks, do you got him as a top 50 SP ROS?  Does tonight have a big influence one way or another?

Paul Sporer: Holy moly, no! He’s not moving 37 spots off one start. I might consider him more of a shallow spot starter than deep one if he does well, but no chance he’s surging into the top 50 off one start against a tough team

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going and post the Fireside pod. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!