Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 2nd, 2017

Paul Sporer: Helllllooooo!! Let’s talk baseball!!

JimyJam: Why can’t Belt hit LHP this year? Is it small sample noise or should we be concerned?

Paul Sporer: Could be sample size, but the real issue is that he didn’t necessarily own the positive work he showed vL the two years before so I’d lean more toward the negative

Jay: Have a glut of CI’s and need OF help and an upside SP. I traded Bour and Brad Miller for Sonny Gray and Andrew Benintendi. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I like it!

Chris: Thoughts on Dan Straily? Specifically for a 12 team mixer, 7 categories (QS and K/BB)

Paul Sporer: Meh. Walks too many to be a real K/BB asset and has only gone 6+ in three of his outings

Hobbs: How much value does Aroldis gain/lose in dynasty? In a 12tm Roto dynasty would you trade Aroldis and Betances for Alex Wood, Ronald Acuna, and Cody Allen? I’m in first right now. Would like some SP help though. Closer are Giles, Kintzler, Knebel and Bush plus the two Yanks. This obviously depends on Wood’s health. If news comes out he’s okay, would you do the deal? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Ya this works and you even get a future piece in Acuna. Trading RPs in dynasty is always a good idea. They’re just so sketchy (though Aroldis and Betances are admittedly two of the more stable ones)

Mark: Is Ian Desmond ever going to return to being good?

Paul Sporer: It’s been 29 games lol

Mark: Is Leury Garcia’s breakout for real?

Paul Sporer: Big cut in K% that I like, but 21% HR/FB is unlikely to hold. I can see the AVG and SB staying useful in deeper leagues

Mark: What are your thoughts on Paul DeJong and Chad Pinder?

Paul Sporer: Vlad Sedler of Rotowire has nicknamed Pinder “Swipe Right” as a Tinder reference and I love it. The power has been legit and I dig him. I don’t know much about DeJong, sorry

Randy Travis: In desperate need of a Catcher in my AL-only league. Please rank the following options: Vogt, Zunino, Vasquez. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Vogt, Vazquez, open spot, Zunino

AI: any worries about marco estrada after his blowup vs the yankees? rather have him or fulmer rest of season?

Paul Sporer: No, he’s done more than enough to not freak out over 1 start. Prefer Fulmer, but not bc of the bad outing

Evan : Hi Paul! Do you think Aaron Nola recovers from this injury marred slow start?

Paul Sporer: I’m kinda moving away from him bc of the health. It just continually clouds his performance and makes him tough to rely on at all

Chin Music: My league has been picking up and dropping Tanaka like crazy. I took a chance after his great start but then got stuck with another miserable one. Is he really worth holding on to?

Paul Sporer: On the bench

StarGord: In a dynasty where cost and control is even, would you swap Addison Russell for Robbie Ray? h2h points

Paul Sporer: No, prefer the hitter in long term situations and I just don’t think Ray is that great

Joe: You a fan of Jesse Hahn ROS?

Paul Sporer: Ya. Obv needs health, but I dig the talent

Bill: Who do you take rest of season in standard points league: Jake Lamb or Justin Turner?

Paul Sporer: Turner barely

Patches: I wouldn’t mind scooping up an SP in my AL-only league. Thinking of offering my Calhoun for Shoemaker. Good deal for me?

Paul Sporer: Yep,I like that. Calhoun will get going IMO, but that’s a fair deal

George is Curious: Is Ben Gamel a starter for the Mariners if Haniger ever returns?

Paul Sporer: I can see him still being strong side platoon – Gamel, Dyson, Haniger

Guest: I have a $5 Villar in my 5×5 ottoneu league. Coming into this year he looked like the best asset in the entire league. Now…. not so much. What should I do with him?

Paul Sporer: Hold for now. You’ll get ripped in a trade.

Chin Music: Would you offer up Xander to get back Machado? Machado just hasn’t been hitting at all and Xander is pulling some real weight in other categories for me.

Paul Sporer: Ya, I would ,but not sure it gets the job done

baby bull : Whats a realistic range of arms I could get in return for my Marwin Gonzalez, Im having a hard time putting a value to him 10 team AL Only Scoresheet keep 7-10

Paul Sporer: Chris Sale or bust!!!!!

Paul Sporer: 🙂

Paul Sporer: Kidding of course, but maybe Sevvy? Porcello? Can ask for a good arm for sure. E.Rodriguez?

Cindy: Did you get a chance to watch Kluber yesterday? Haven’t seen him look so good in the regular season in a long time. Was nice to see.

Paul Sporer: I didn’t see all of it. I’m not worried about Kluber in general, but I think we might have to discount starts v. OAK as markers of success lol

The Kyd: Traded Bruce for Cole. My other arms are deGrom, Tanaka, Stras, Matz, Manaea, and Nola. Will I be happy come year’s end?

Paul Sporer: For Gerrit Cole? Ya I dig that for sure

Louis: Pitching staff’s been ravaged by injury and general ineptitude (Gio is my defacto ace now…). Have OF and power to spare. Trade K Davis for Pomeranz?

Paul Sporer: Man, I’d want someone more reliable than that for Khrush. I like Pomy some, but he’s not terribly different than Gio in terms of reliability. Shoot higher. I’ll mention Eduardo Rodriguez again here. He’s coming off a terrible start so maybe he’s more gettable bc of it

I’m Fragile: I can’t remember any year where so many players were hurt in the first two months of a season. I know the 10-day DL has played a part but this is ridiculous. If Nelson Cruz turns out to have a broken hand, I might cry.

Boris: What to do with Castellanos? 10team roto non keeper league

Paul Sporer: Ya it’s definitely nuts – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/everyone-is-on-the-disabled-list-right-… Man oh man, I really hope Cruz is OK, too

Paul Sporer: In 10 team, you can cut

Slamboni: Who do you like better long term for an AL Dynasty roto: Benintendi or Mazara? Mazara is cheaper, but has one less year of control

Paul Sporer: I honestly don’t have a real split between the two long-term. I’d lean slightly toward Mazara, but I’ve been impressed with Beni. I know he’s slumping, but I think he’ll come out of it

FYI Guy: Hey FYI, you quit more fantasy leagues this last year than I actively played in the last 5 years.

Paul Sporer: That means you’re smart, lol. I was overloaded for sure.

Pop Quiz: True or False: Astros vs. Cubs will be meeting in the 2017 World Series.

Paul Sporer: I’ll just say false bc that’s the smart answer on June 2nd.

Rick: Can Marwin Gonzalez be a .280/.340 guy ROS?

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t think that’s out of bounds at all.

Shawn: I know the walks, but Danny Salazar peripherals don’t look THAT bad. Buy low for you? Assuming he’s not hurt of course

Paul Sporer: What are you including in “peripherals” if you’re discounting the walks out of hand?! Ks are allll he has. BB and HR are a nightmare and I just can’t trust him right now

David: Is Sano possibly a sell-high candidate in a dynasty league?

Choos on First: Is this a good time to buy low on Quintana?

Paul Sporer: hmmm

Paul Sporer: technical difficulties

Paul Sporer: oh there’s the questions lol

Paul Sporer: i had to click that Sano Q like 80 times

Paul Sporer: Yes on both questions as I think you can sell Sano for something nice and Q can’t get any lower so the price should be very enticing

Paul Sporer: Obviously Quintana is allowing far too many HRs, but beyond that I just don’t see why he’s struggling sooo much, at least on the surface. Maybe I’ll dive deeper into his numbers and see if I can find anything

The Kyd: Drop Franco for Bird in 10-tm mixer?

Paul Sporer: Surely there’s someone better if you’re dropping Franco?

Bill: Would you pick up Carlos Rodon in a 12 team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: As long as I can DL him or there’s a reasonable bench size

Nittanychris: Thoughts on Junior Guerra? Will he fly under the radar and provide really good value ROS? Seems like people just assume major regression because he turned a corner at a later age. I’m not so sure…

Paul Sporer: Yes, I do think he’ll be good ROS. I’m a big fan and was bummed when he got hurt on Opening Day. 3.30ish ERA typ

Paul Sporer: type*

Jc at the bat: 10 team NL only dynasty. Bellinger is worth more than Folwer and G cole correct?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’d think so, but it’s not an out of bounds offer

rustydude: David Price owner is shopping him for rebuild pieces. Do you think he’s pitching like the old DP soon?

Paul Sporer: Better than ’16, but not quite vintage sub-3.00 ERA Price

Jimmy: Stephen Vogt in 10 team AL only…droppable for Leon, Gomes or Maldonado at this point?

Paul Sporer: Ya, you can. I’m surprised they’re available in a 10-team AL. I think I’d for Leon first, but it’s really personal preference among those 3

Matt: Derek Holland. #5 fantasy pitcher for the rest of the season? Peripherals in line with 2013 and prior when he was a startable pitcher before injuries.

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’s a low-4.00s kind of guy

Matt: Picked up Bour in a dynasty league. Is he a legit starting 1B moving forward?

Paul Sporer: Huge Justin Bour fan. He was tracking toward 30-100 last year before the wrist and looks even better this year

Rags: Sell high on Chris Taylor?

Paul Sporer: Ya. I mean, I’m not sure what you’re going to net, but if you can get something better than a waiver pickup type player, it’s worth selling out before that K% catches up to him (although I’m heartened by a 10% swinging strike rate)

Bubba: Lamb or Sano in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Lamb

Bruce: How should I value a return for Villar? Looking to sell.

Paul Sporer: I mean there’s no universal. If your SBs are set without him, then try to plug a hole for your team

Paul Sporer: At this point in the season, trades are about improving your team, not just maximizing the return value. If the return doesn’t help your team, who cares how “valuable” it is on the open market, ya know?

Ken: Paul! Been loving the pod. So what to do with Salazar? Have him in a 12-teamer and feel like I can’t just cut him, but I need pitching and don’t want to burn a roster spot on him. Sell for pennies on the dollar, or hold tight for now?

Paul Sporer: With him being moved to the pen, I think you gotta sell low or cut unfortunately. It’s a tough situation and could obviously burn you down the line, but you can’t play afraid to make moves because they COULD hurt later. The fact is that with the available data, he looks lost. He’s missing bats, but that is it.

Eldridge Cleaver: Who closes when the White Sox trade David Robertson? Kahnle, Jones, other?

Paul Sporer: I’d think Jones has the inside track when healthy, but Kahnle has been a stud. Even if LaTroy Hawkins hates his guts lol

Paul Sporer: Context re: LaTroy – http://awfulannouncing.com/mlb/latroy-hawkins-calls-tommy-kahnle-one-w…

Guest: Dinelson Lamet rosterable in a 12-team league?

Paul Sporer: I think with the state of pitching, yes. Throwing 95 and missing a ton of bats early on

Me: Can Gleyber Torres pull a Bellinger and provide immediate fantasy impact this season?

Paul Sporer: He’s an elite prospect, so yes. I understand ppl trying to hold him in just about any format, but under there is major risk in a 20-year old so he’s far from a guarantee

Matt: I only have one 2-start pitcher next week, and it’s Wade Miley…I keep waiting for a few good starts to justify calling up Nola from my minors. Nola’s a 2-start against ATL and STL – is this the week it starts to click for him?

Paul Sporer: Nola is in your minors?! Anyway, I don’t like the “wait for them to be good then use them” method bc you’re actively looking to miss good starts. Injury concerns me more than skill re: Nola. At any rate, I think you gotta take an ATL start

Choos on First: is Rhys Hoskins going to be the real deal? crushing AAA, on pace for over 30 HR’s. how long till the phillies give him a shot?

Paul Sporer: The fact that he hasn’t gotten a chance despite his insane minor league numbers should tell you something. Not sure he’s full on Darin Ruf, but he’s not Ryan Howard, either.

Willie beamen: Odor or Dee Gordon ROS? 12 team 5×5

Paul Sporer: That’s a needs-based one since one is power and the other is speed. Overall, I’d slot Gordon ahead bc of the paucity of SBs.

Gucci: Paulie any idea when Dahl will be back? Worth claiming him and dropping A Diaz? Have Story but need an OF.

Paul Sporer: Kind of an unknown right now. I’d assume at least a couple more weeks. But if it stretches deep into June, they could just punt it to the All-Star break. Look for a different OF

Matt: Is Sean Manaea rounding out to what people thought Sean Manaea could be?

Paul Sporer: Ya I mean, he was pretty impressive last year during his rookie season and seems to be improving on what he showed during those 144.7 IP. There will still be bumps, but a lot of good work for sure

Big Tuna: Is Waino back? Do you prefer him or Sonny ROS?

Paul Sporer: Jason was staying the course with him and kept recommending him on the pod

Paul Sporer: Has a 2.81 ERA over his last 8 starts and just 1 ER in his last 4 (26.3 IP)

Hobbs: Think Story turns it around? Could trade him for Acuna and probably #1 pick in MiLB draft. Could be Otani or Robert. 10tm H2H dynasty. Could pick up Cozart and have Baez.

Paul Sporer: I do think Story turns it around, but if you’re looking more toward next year, I can get behind that deal, especially with Cozart available

Steve: Do you trust Pineda now that it’s been two months or is he still iffy and a sell-high?

Paul Sporer: I’d sell still. I’m obviously starting him everywhere, but he’s still allowing way too many HRs meaning his success is entirely dependent on hit suppression which isn’t always in the pitcher’s control

Paul Sporer: In short, nothing has drastically changed w/Pineda.

Hold the Odor: What do you expect from Rodon when he comes back? Do you think there will be some cobwebs? Rodon, Joe Ross, Morton ROS?

Paul Sporer: Ya I can’t imagine he comes out firing

Paul Sporer: I’d go Ross first among that group

Ken: Tell me nice things about your boy Castellanos? I had such high expectations, and now I’m not even sure he deserves a bench spot (12-team redraft). What to do?!

Paul Sporer: He seems like a nice person!

Paul Sporer: He’s just swinging too much. My guess is that he’s power hungry. He’s been a much bigger K% guy in MLB than I expected. I think he’d be better served to focus on cutting that down in exchange for base hits and not just looking to go 420 ft every AB

Hobbs: You trying to buy Machado, Cabrera, and Trea wherever you can? Any other slow starters you looking to get?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’d buy on all three, though I do need a discount. I can’t go full market

Allen: Bregman is BACK, baby! Or is he? Think he keeps it up, or just a flash?

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan. I was admittedly concerned by the ugly start, but he’s surged brilliantly of late. I was pleased by he responded to the ugly start last year and he bounced back again this year. He seems to be really good at not getting down on himself and keeping his approach in the face of adversity

Luke Singsank: What needs to happen for you to stop drinking Red Bull?

Paul Sporer: Probably more sleep ?

Rated Rookie: Traded Moncada for Bregman (in order to move Bryant into Trout’s OF spot). What do expect from Bregman ROS and next season(s)?

Paul Sporer: I think Bregman’s peak is like 20/10/.300 with gobs of runs and good RBI totals as part of an elite team

Fellow Energy Drink Connoisseur: On a real cold streak in terms of pitching/ratios right now. Do I just keep trotting out Tanaka/Shark/Shoemaker in hopes of ‘getting’ their bounce backs? Anyone in that group that you are bailing on entirely in a 12 team mix?

Paul Sporer: I think Shark and Shoe have already bounced back. I just can’t find what’s appreciably wrong with Tanaka outside of the HRs so I’d likely stick with him, too

John Olerud: First off, I totally appreciate the podcast, especially the ones you do with Eno. And I appreciate your opinions in helping me gauge my own. But I have to agree with the commentator on the last one. How can you possibly think Nelson and/or Godley are better options. Ray has a proven record as a high-K pitcher, and he is at that magic place where he is both young enough to have immense upside and proven enough to be relatively reliable (especially away from Chase and possibly at Chase once/if the humidor comes into play). I mean, I appreciate taking a flying on either Nelson and Godley (especially Nelson for the same reasons as Ray), but to actually chose them over Ray seems absurd.

Paul Sporer: How is it absurd, though?

Paul Sporer: What has Robbie Ray to be automatically ahead of them!?

Paul Sporer: He has Ks, that’s it. He can’t pitch at home. He allows too much hard contact.

Paul Sporer: I love Ks as much as anyone, but Robbie Ray is so wildly overrated, it’s not even funny

Paul Sporer: I’ll use him on the road all day, but he’s not some must start, all-formats arm. Not by a longshot.

Todd: ROS: Cesar Hernandez or Devon Travis?

Paul Sporer: I’ll say Travis even acknowledging that his health makes it a tough bet. Honestly, the two are pretty damn close, but I’ll just lean slightly toward Dev

Butch: Would you trade sale and Brantley for miggy and greinke

Paul Sporer: Nah, that’s not really a buy low on Miggy. You’re taking all the risk, IMO

Rougned’s Younger Brother: Billy Hamilton is a Top __ player in standard 5×5 leagues.

Paul Sporer: I dunno, it’s pretty high bc of the SBs, but I don’t know what a ranking like that does for us rest of the season

Paul Sporer: If you need SBs, you’d want him

Paul Sporer: If you have other SBs to cover with Hamilton on your team, then you trade him

tip tipson : Brewers have Brinson & Ray coming up soon by next year… How do you think they will treat this situation if D. Santana and Broxton are performing well?

Paul Sporer: They’ll cross that bridge when they get to it. Those things play themselves out all the time. Broxton will be 28 and isn’t blocking anyone from playing.

Corey: Need to speculate on saves but also need starting pitching. O’Day and Hahn available on the wire. Who do I pick up?

Paul Sporer: I’d prefer Hahn of the two

Boss Man: Annything to worry about with Darvish’s 2.97 ERA/4.00 FIPP?

Paul Sporer: Eh, some concerning aspects of his line, so while he’s not necessarily pitching at a 2.97 level, he’s not a 4.00 guy, either. The talent is still sky-high. I’m not worried

Luke Singsank: Thoughts on a Schwarber and Villar for Trea Turner deal?

Paul Sporer: I’d be cool with that

tip tipson : Are we totally over A. Diaz?

Paul Sporer: Nah. Still has 9 HR+SB. I wouldn’t give up on him

Ned: Based on some numbers (ie. ERA vs xFIP) it looks like Shark is one of the more underrated guys right now, but I’m also wary of offering much given what he’s been doing so far. Like him as a buy-low, or are you staying away?

Paul Sporer: Ya had him on the buy low back on May 11th! http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-456-…

MC: Franco worth holding on to?

Paul Sporer: In deeper leagues, but I can understand 10 and 12 teamers looking elsewhere as he’s obviously struggling. But I’d even try to bench in those situations. A .222 BABIP is just so low

B: Paul! Need your help I have been offered Machado for Judge. What do I do? (already have Bogaerts and Arenado).

Paul Sporer: I’d take it

Paul Sporer: Gotta take a shot on someone like Machado and while Judge has obviously been fantastic, it’s been 2 months v. a much lengthier track record for Machado

Cindy: I realize he was pitching against Oakland, but his stuff would have played no matter who he was playing.

 

Rob Friedman

@PitchingNinja

 

48 Seconds of Pitching Porn: Corey Kluber’s Disgusting Breaking Stuff (all from Today).

2 Jun 2017

Paul Sporer: His breaking ball is just so sexy

DL MONSTER: What are your non-baseball interests/hobbies that we can chat about?

Paul Sporer: Comedy, TV, movies

Nelson: Schelber getting no respect in ROS rankings. Say something nice about him please

Paul Sporer: The easiest comp seems to be this year’s Duvall which undoubtedly has value

Howie: Please rank: Shoemaker, Hahn, ERod

Paul Sporer: I think you just did with Rodriguez once again hurting his knee :9

Paul Sporer: 🙁

CubFan: Is Sam Travis Boston’s answer at 1B in 2018?

Paul Sporer: Moreland’s been pretty good! Travis seems to be his platoon partner

Dave: Jeff Locke: Fantasy hero or zero?

Paul Sporer: C’mon now

John Farrell: Eduardo Rodriguez to the DL with a knee injury

Paul Sporer: Noooooooo

Estuve : What’s your belief level in Bauer against kc?

Paul Sporer: Against KC, I’m in

Paul Sporer: but long-term, I remain sketchy

Thoughts on a trade?: G. Cole for Desmond + Hendricks/Matz. Would you do it? Hendricks or Matz RoS? OBP &QS League

Paul Sporer: I would do it, but I’m torn on the choice of SP. I prefer Matz when both are upright and pitching, but that’s just so rare with Matz that I’d have to lean with Hendricks

Estuve : Do you think manny machado is hurt?

Paul Sporer: Maybe, but it’s just not obvious in any metrics so I’m inclined to think no. He still has 10 HRs, pacing for 32. He’s just not getting his singles right now.

Dan: I love this chat, thanks for doing it. Ever get tired of listening to a million hours of other people’s fantasy minutiae?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I love talking baseball

Tom: Please convince me not to freak out about Gerrit Cole’s last 2 starts. Unless you think it’s entirely reasonable to be scared of Cole ROS.

Paul Sporer: I can’t see any reason to freak out. Two tough starts for a very good arm

Dave: Would you trade Suarez and Robbie Ray for Matt Carpenter (OBP league)?

Paul Sporer: League size?

Heathcliff Slocumb: Corey DIckerson is running an insane BABIP of .394 now but finished with some in the .350 range in previous years albeit at Coors. What does the final slash look like for him and are you buying?

Paul Sporer: .280/.320/.530 — I like Dickerson for sure

Gavin: You hype Eduardo twice and now he lands on the DL. Please stop talking about my players

Paul Sporer: I know, I know

Guest: curious of Lamb over Sano. Sano is younger, better projections, having better season, better prospect pedigree. What gives?

Paul Sporer: It’s close, but I just don’t see Sano as more than a .240ish hitter with that silly K%. Lamb also Ks a ton, but I think he’s more of a .260 guy. In the end, they’re both insane power guys with AVG issues

Sammy Da Bull: Just dropped Aledmys Diaz….Mistake?? I have Chris Taylor and Tim Anderson manning the SS post.

Paul Sporer: Not an outright mistake, no. I was just saying I don’t think he’s a slug that we have to completely quit. In other words, he should be on a team, but not necessarily yours

AI: will brad peacock put it together as a starter? he seemed soo close through 4 innings

Paul Sporer: Ya I wasn’t watching that so I asked on Twitter and most seemed to think he got a bit snakebitten there. I’m keeping a close eye on him over the next couple. I could see having him on the bench in 10 or 12 just in case, but he’s more of a deep leaguer at this very moment

Snowflake: Would you trade Trout for T. Turner and Lindor in a dyntasy when I already have Corey Seager?

Paul Sporer: I think I would do that

Paul Sporer: Lindor to MI, Turner to OF

John Olerud: Thanks for responding. But I think you’re missing the point a little on what me (and, I believe, the commentator) are saying. I don’t think we’re insinuating that Ray is all that and a ham sandwich, nor are we saying he is definitely a must-start. But, at this point, he has far more value, track record and expectancy to sustain his performance and peripherals than either Nelson or Godley. And, thus, given a choice, I think it is a no-brainer to choose Ray over Nelson or Godley, if only for his current value (perceived or otherwise).

Paul Sporer: No, he doesn’t. And no, it’s not at all a no-brainer

Paul Sporer: I didn’t miss the point, I just don’t agree with it or think it’s well-supported

John Olerud: And K’s matter. Just like steals matter to an otherwise average hitter.

Paul Sporer: No kidding Ks matter, but he gets massively overrated by his

Paul Sporer: 43% Hard contact rate for a flyballer and a 0.91 HR/9? ?

Snowflake: Schwarber or Tomas?

Paul Sporer: Flip a coin

Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta get going

Paul Sporer: Thanks for hanging out! Follow me on Twitter @sporer, Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at Twitch.tv/psporer24 where we stream MLB The Show and talk baseball several nights a week!