Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 28th, 2019

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! Let’s talk some baseball!!!

oswald2319: Luzardo went 5 innings last night, life is good!!!!

Paul Sporer: His debut is creeping closer and closer

Rahim: Hi, Paul. Is Hiura a must-add, or something less than that?

Paul Sporer: Must-add in all formats, IMO. Impact potential is massive

Alec Berg: Daniel Palka getting the call this week. Am I right to still be wary after his horrendous start to the year?

Paul Sporer: Ya, he’s a pretty generic power hitter. I wouldn’t bend over backwards to scoop him

Fangraph’s lurker: Glasnow’s rehab hit a snag out till at least august), had him on my IL since getting hurt, time to drop?

Paul Sporer: Ya if your reserve has someone more deserving of the IL, I’m cool moving on from Glasnow in redraft

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Do you think Clint Frazier’s perceived trade value in a keeper is at it’s highest now before he comes back up?  you mentioned the K% increase yesterday

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say across the board. I think you can find an eager buyer, but I doubt the offers would flood in if you posted him on the block (which you still should)

Walewander: You buying JaCoby’s Jones’ improvements? What’s your outlook for Jose Ramirez?

Paul Sporer: I can get behind the power and BABIP boosts for Jones, but it’s still a shaky plate profile which could leave him prone to extended slumps. Ramirez is a forced hold.

Tallulah Trebuchet: Does Luke Jackson stick as the closer in Atlanta?

Paul Sporer: I doubt it. He’s been great but I think they’ll add someone to take the closer’s role and put Jackson in the fireman role

CW: Which side do you have in a 10tm H2H OBP/QS keep forever league (keep up to 15)- Snell/A. Beni. or E. Jimenez/Senzel/Giolito/D. Cease

Paul Sporer: That deal is pretty fair. I don’t leave heavily on one side. I do like getting two premium prospects in Eloy & Senzel so I might slightly lean there

Z.S.: This morning I traded Yordan and Soroka for Snell and Colome in my 12-tm H2H keep 4 forever league… my bats are stacked – my OF is Yelich, Acuna & Soto, with Austin Meadows in my DH slot… I’m betting on positive ERA regression for Snell, and regular regression for Soroka. Did I pay too much?? Flags fly forever…

Paul Sporer: No, I can get behind this for sure. I’m not terribly concerned with Snell. In fact…. we JUST did a Fireside on him: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-711-fir…

Poncho: Are you sharing Mike Werner’s optimism on Brendan McKay?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a must pickup in all formats just because of the upside. This might be a one and done until after the break, but he could be a game-changer

Dave: How optimistic are you on AJ Pollock as a stash?

Paul Sporer: Not very, tbh

Dave: Pence obviously started the season surprisingly strongly… how are you approaching him as he nears a return from IL (if he was dropped anywhere)?

Paul Sporer: He’s been great all year. I’m riding this train!

Graham: Would you drop Matt Carpenter for Hiura?

Guest: Matt Carpenter dropped in points league.  Pickup hoping for a rebound? I could drop Joc Pederson for him.

Paul Sporer: In a 10-teamer and maybe even a 12-teamer, I can make the Carp for Hiura swap

Paul Sporer: I think I’d just hold Joc over Carp at this point… oh gawd this is going to be like last year all over again, isn’t it? Last yr when I started faded Carp, he became the best hitter ever for 6 weeks

Graham: How good can Oscar Mercado be?

Paul Sporer: I think he can be a really dynamic outfielder at his peak – strong AVG, great SB, and some punch. If the CLE lineup is kicking (as they are lately with 5.5 r/g in June), then his R/RBI can work, too.

Todd Gak: Miles Mikolas or Yu Darvish ros?

Paul Sporer: Plan for 2020?

Paul Sporer: I’ll make it need-based… Mikolas for ratios, Darvish for Ks

Dale Cooper: How much regression do you think Giolito have in him?

Paul Sporer: While I wouldn’t project him to maintain his early season ratios, I could see something like a 3.50/1.20 with a great strikeout rate. Of course, if the schedule favors him and he dodges some tougher teams while getting plenty of AL Central, then he could run the table and wind up a major Cy Young candidate

Kevin: Seen anything from Profar that makes you think he can turn it around 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: His April is still weighing down the total line. I think he can stay around the level we’ve seen since May 1st: .753 OPS/8 HR/3 SB (28/11 full season paces)

Rocco: Was early season Meadows a head fake?  He’s been slumping.

Paul Sporer: Feel like it’s really just a slump. I’m not freaking out right now

Joe: Is Dominic Smith worthy of fantasy consideration?

Paul Sporer: The skills have been fantastic! If he finds his way into major playing time, he could be a big time fantasy player

Zach Attack: Which surprising catcher has the most staying power: J McCann, R Perez, or Severino?

Paul Sporer: That McCann BABIP haaaaaaassss to come down, but I think there are some nice power gains. Perez’s power seems pretty bankable, too, at least as a low-end C

Norman: Do you like Loudres Gurriel, Bryan Reynolds, or Michael Conforto most as an OF option rest of season?

Paul Sporer: Interesting group there. I’d lean toward Conforto.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: When is the last time you thought about Mariano Duncan?

Paul Sporer: Milliseconds ago when I read that

jacks: Standard AL Only – $7 Hunter Dozier enough for a $31 Aroldis and an expiring contract ($8) Matt Chapman? (Thanks as always for all the work you do!)

Paul Sporer: I dig Dozier, but I think I gotta get more than that. A prospect perhaps, but definitely need more

Tim: In a keep forever dynasty league, who wins the trade of Khris Davis for Robbie Ray?

Paul Sporer: No true winner. That’s a perfectly fair deal

First Timer: Are you concerned with Arenado’s recent slump? Maybe significant regression 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: 0% worried

Turgid: About to take your advice on Strahm and pick him up for his dominant 2nd half. Please stop giving up so many homers…

Paul Sporer: Correct, the only way he can greatly exceed expectations is to keep the ball in the park more

Poncho: If one side needs offense, and the other needs saves, is Joey Gallo for Kimbrel a pretty fair deal?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s better for the one getting Gallo

The Mistro: In an AL only league and looking for saves. Who is a NL reliever that might come over at the trade deadline as a speculative add?

Paul Sporer: Will Smith? Or like everyone in the SF bullpen

Brian24: Thanks for the chat Paul! 12-team 5×5 roto w OBP. I have Andrelton Simmons and Jake Lamb coming off the IL this week, and Hiura getting called up. Which 3 should I cut? Candidates are Profar, Cesar Hernandez, Kole Calhoun, DDS, JBJ, Kyle Schwarber, and Simmons and Lamb.

Paul Sporer: Lamb, DDS, and Calhoun. There’s a lot of overlap there so you gotta play some favorites between JBJ-Schwarber-Calhoun, Simmos-Profar-Hernandez

underserviced league: you see swarzak or minter over taking jackson? which one?

Paul Sporer: No I see them making a move for someone who takes the job

Bat Flipper: When do your next SP rankings come out?

Paul Sporer: Early next week

Neal: My Paddack for Corey Seager? Deep 30 team std roto dynasty and I’m not competing until 2021 most likely. Looking to move my few good arms for building block bats.

Paul Sporer: I can get behind that. I’m a little nervous on Seager, but he’s still a good long term investment

Broken Bat: Alozay of Cubs in nobody’s top prospect lists. Injury concern probably driving factor in this. However, he has missed a lot of bats, mixed in a good change and hit 96. Is he the Adrenalin kick the Cubs needed. A RH that can go 6-7 innings with quality stuff IYO. He has shown punch out ability but gone full count on far too many hitters. What do you expect for this year and next? To me, Cubs will need to send Quintana to pen with Monty struggling and balance SP with RH especially with Hendricks on mend. thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I think injuries last yr pushed him down Cubs lists, but he’s got some great stuff. I see the Cubs using him in a flexible role sometimes with an opener, sometimes as a multi-inning fireman in high leverage in the 6th or later, and sometimes starting

Guest: Joe Musgrove or Eduardo Rodrigues ros?

Paul Sporer: Still sticking by Musgrove

Pie Eaton Contest: In an OBP/SLG league would you prefer Altuve or Moose and how close is it?

Paul Sporer: I lean Altuve, but it’s a lot closer than most probably realize as Moose has been really good this year

Moop: What’s the latest you are hearing about Casey Mize?

Paul Sporer: Nothing lately, last news was Tigers were optimistic

John: Yamamoto or Gallen ros?

Paul Sporer: Gallen by a shred – a Fireside on those very same SPs: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-708-…

Rick: Hiura worth adding if it means dropping Bryan Reynolds?

Paul Sporer: Reynolds has some legitimacy and he could definitely match or out-do Hiura, but I think I’d prefer Hiura. We’re playing the percentages and he’s got the better overall profile

Cory: I think I’m done with Pivetta, would you replace with Merrill Kelly, Pineda, or Alzolay.  I could keep any pick up for this year and next in a 14 team keeper league, standard scoring

Paul Sporer: I can understand quitting him. I’d go for Alzolay’s upside

Eric: Are you selling Eugenio Suarez? He’s my everyday 3B in a dynasty league and I’m not sure what to do with him.

Paul Sporer: I’m actually sitting tight with him. The power has still been solid and I think his AVG could push back toward .260+

Turgid: You dropping Wil Myers in 12-teamers? So many Ks and getting benched so not even getting a chance to break out of it.

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m fine moving on right now. He may rebound and you can reconsider if he sticks on the wire, but it’s not good right now and he isn’t a must hold

John: Does Kieboom get a chance to stick in the majors this year?

Paul Sporer: Probably not without an injury. Now back at .500, Washington is likely to be lingering too close to a playoff spot to sell at the deadline

Guest: I know it will probably work out ok in the end, but I feel like a big dummy for trading Alonso for Bryant 2 weeks ago

Paul Sporer: Alonso is a G, but Bryant is a great get for him

Crowded Outfield: Should I be worried about Avisail Garcia?

Paul Sporer: He’s in a big slump. I think he’ll rebound, but I don’t think he’s someone we MUST wait on in 10- and 12-teamers

Mike: Scooter Gennett or Chris Taylor ROS (12 team H2H Categories)? My other 2B is Aldaberto.

Paul Sporer: Gennett

Yeah Jeets!: With so many high performing shortstops, is the trade value of the top group (Turner, etc) neutered?

Paul Sporer: Ya as it almost certainly gives you fewer potential trade partners who would need or want your premium SS

Joe: does Dinelson Lamet end up in the Padres rotation at some point this season?

Paul Sporer: Perhaps, but I’m just generally out on TJ returners in their first yr back so I’m not really eyeing him him.

Drew: Scotter Gennett…difference maker when he returns?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. He’s been incredible the last two years

Rohit: Keeper league:  Should I go all-in on Fernando Tatis trade? Can he be top 20 next year?   Willing to package Clevinger+Marte+Yates+Realmuto.

Paul Sporer: He *can* be a top 20, but that package just seems like too much for a guaranteed (well insofar as any of this is guaranteed) top 20 let alone for a young prospect who’s still pretty unknown long term

Kickflip : Traded judge for snell. Did I overpay given snell’s recent skid? I’m worried about judge’s oblique injury sapping his power

Paul Sporer: Premium bat for an ace. I’m cool with it

LaJohn: I have an excess of OF/UTIL bats…Should I deal Ozuna for Kimbrel?

Paul Sporer: If you have a big saves need, that works

Janis Joplin: Oh Lourdes, won’t you hit me, a bunch of, home runs.  My team’s set, on pitching, can you get, it done?

Paul Sporer: LOOOOOOOOOOOL well done

Jeremy: Turned down his Jose Ramirez for my Elvis Andrus in 10 team redraft where I need SB, 2B, and AVG. Correct move?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have any issue passing. I could really go either way as I understand why someone would buy low, but I lean your way and would likely say no if offered the same deal

Zack: Can Carter Kieboom become a top 50 bat next season?  Is he worth holding as a keeper in 5v5 (12 team, 4 keepers per)?

Paul Sporer: He could be, but that’s a loooow percentage probability. Can’t plan for that from a prospect. You should probably have 4 better keepers in a 12-teamer

Donovan: Which reliever would you most be willing to trade from your roster? – B. Hand, W. Smith, F. Vazquez, or B. Treinen?

Paul Sporer: That’s tough. The Dozier grand slam hits Hand’s value a bit, Smith is almost 100% traded, the LA rumor cuts Vazquez’s value, and Treinen is hurt. I’d still say Hand bc his role is secured

J Dog: 12 team H2H points league. I traded bieber and luzardo for snell….did I overpay?

Paul Sporer: It’s a little pricey, but not egregious.

Dave: What does Mazara’s line look like from here on out?

Paul Sporer: Probably more of the same. He’s basically been the same player for his entire career.

Murphy up or down: Daniel Murphy or yandy Diaz ros? Obp league. Will Murphy have a better 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: Murphy will be better than we’ve seen, but Yandy is my choice here

Turgid: Going to pick up Verdugo for the rest of the Colorado series, but do you think he could have a big 2nd half? Betting 2nd for the Dodgers is a nice spot

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Verdugo fan and I think he can be a nice glue guy in a fantasy OF. He’s almost certainly better in real life than fantasy, but if the power develops a bit, then he can be a fantasy stud, too

The Dude: 12 team 5×5.  Saves are very elusive.  Any reason to continue to wait on Leclerc?

Paul Sporer: They still seem to want him back in that role. I’d hold out a bit longer if I’m desperate for the saves

Darren: Eflin is obviously performing way above his head. Do you expect ROS to be similar to last season, or as bad as his FIP/xFIP/SIERA suggest (which would be a fair bit worse than last year)?

Paul Sporer: I’m most concerned about the homers. The LOB% rate will come down a bit at 82%, but the real question is whether or not he can keep the ball in the park

Casey Jones: Greinke for Altuve fair if I need Ks and BA?

Paul Sporer: That is fair, yes

Marc: Thoughts on Riley’s current slump?

Paul Sporer: Twas expected

ILH: Luis Urias the next impact bat to stash in all formats?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. I love Urias!

Dalman: Any idea why the White  Sox haven’t put Anderson on the dl yet.  Looked like 10 days easy based on reports.

Paul Sporer: Not sure, but they will prob do it ahead of tonight’s game

Webster: Austin Riley done or just a slump?

Paul Sporer: My point re: his slump being expected is that no one stays that hot. It’s his turn to make the adjustment. The power is still there, too, so it’s not even some awful slump

PAL: Willie Calhoun = post hype breakout candidate? Do you think he keeps getting everyday playing time RoS?

Paul Sporer: Yes and yes. I like Urias a little more, but he and Calhoun are two of my favorite prospects

Jim Leyland Palmer: Paul, what’s your Matt Boyd trade prediction?

Paul Sporer: I so hope it happens bc they’d get a haul and I think it’s necessary for the rebuild. Not sure they’ll get the Quintana-esque haul they’re seeking, but getting something just short of it would work, too

Voldemort: Re: Calhoun getting everyday playing time ROS… who loses playing time assuming a fully healthy squad?

Paul Sporer: Good Q. Ronald Guzman, probably, though that’d complicate the CF situation. That’s a very good pt and could stifle Calhoun’s time a bit. That said, these things often play themselves out either with another injury or underperformance from someone

Paul Sporer: OK y’all. That’s going to wrap us up for the day! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!