Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 23rd, 2017

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon!! Let’s talk some baseball. Gotta keep it to a tight hour so I can release my SP ranking update.

Trader Danny: Is my Pollock for his Strasburg defensible?  12 team mix keeper, roughly equal salaries (low 20s), I’m stocked with OF and crushing it in SB but short on SP, most of the other aces are on other contenders.  This makes sense, right?

Paul Sporer: Definitely. Get any ace-level arm you can at a fair cost in this environment

Tiger Love: Castellanos or Avila ROS (position eligibility not important)? 12-team H2H 5×5 OPS league. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Castellanos, but it’s v close

Casey: Which sides wins this trade–Paxton for Bradley Jr/Tanaka? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Prefer Paxton, not by a ton, though

Brandon: Paul I’m in a tight h2h matchup and trying to decide whether to start Alex Meyer @ Bos tonight. Also have Darvish and Wood going but tough matchups for both of them as well. What do you think? Roll the dice?

Paul Sporer: Eeek, that’s tough. I’d say no and roll w/Yu & Wood

Bluehorseshoe: NL only 5×5, ROS RGrichuk or JJay?

Paul Sporer: Grichuk

Ryan K: OFers seems like a dime a dozen this year. Pick one that can be safely dropped in standard, if any: Avi Garcia, Corey Dickerson, Ian Desmond, Aaron Hicks

Paul Sporer: Avi. Just not as dynamic as the others– agree that OF is mad deep

Hannah Hochevar: AL league w/ stiff start cap: am I crazy to think about sitting Yu @ NYY tonight? You and Eno talked about that line-up and homer stuff, and he’s been very uneven…

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think that’s getting too cute, espec. in an AL only

Rob: I’m not a contender in my 16 team QS dynasty. Giving up Scherzer to get Degrom and Berrios should probably make sense for me right?

Paul Sporer: Ya I can see that, buuuut I’d prefer to get a big bankable bat for Max

Casey: What’s your take on Porcello? Looks like he’s suffered a lot of bad luck, but is also getting hit quite hard. I haven’t watched, but I’m thinking of buying low.

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’s contributing to most of it as opposed to bad luck

Paul Sporer: This is in his range of outcomes for sure

Justin Upton: Who is gonna take me?

Paul Sporer: Not sure. But someone can use a solid everyday OF

Frozone: Is it still a buy-low kind of situation for Paxton

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think he’s cheaper than he was pre-DL in most cases

Linus: Ian Happ a 10-team bat yet?   2B-eligible in ESPN as well.

Paul Sporer: Not yet, no. Pitiful batting average.

Dan: Bellinger is close to a first or second rounder next year, right?

Paul Sporer: No, not at all

Paul Sporer: I mean, I love Bellinger. I was raving about him after AFL, but let’s tap the damn brakes, lol

Rob: Paul! Help! With Nunez out my options on the wire are Addison and hernan. My gut says Hernan but Addison has been hot as of late. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Hernan more dynamic, but Addy is heating up

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Hernan, which is a big change bc I thought he was a stone-cold fluke last year

Sam Malone: What are your expectations for Homer Bailey in his return?

Paul Sporer: No expectations, but watching eagerly as a big fan

Heathcliff Slocumb: Trade Archer and Chapman for Thor and Honeywell in 12 tm keep forever, OK if I’m not competing until next year?

Paul Sporer: Ya I can get behind that with a future outlook

Big Tuna: If I’m struggling in WHIP mainly from my closers, but they’re getting saves, what would your strategy be?

Paul Sporer: Try to supplement it with SPs bc you gotta keep the SVs coming

Wally: Thoughts on S. Matz?  Expectations for ROS?

Paul Sporer: Not quite a must-start, but close. I know the skills haven’t been great yet this year, but I have a hard time seeing scenarios where I’m not starting him.

Big Tuna: Wacha, Martes, Fiers ROS?

Paul Sporer: Wacha, Fiers, Martes

Bregman: 10 h2h trade bregman or hold onto?

Paul Sporer: Not special enough to auto-hold in 10, so I’d dangle him

Pete: Keeper league – my Betts for his Bellinger and Berrios.  Fair?

Paul Sporer: You’re buying high, but it’s not obscene

Paul Sporer: Kyle brings the heat

Andrew: Assuming Otani comes over next year, what pitchers rank-wise, would he be near?

Paul Sporer: No idea. I need to read up a lot more on him

Dan: Is it time to pick up David Peralta regardless of format?

Paul Sporer: It has been AFAIC, he hasn’t been elite all year, but he’s been slowly building

Tessie: Lance Lynn has had an ERA below his FIP/xFIP for the past few years, but this year it’s even more extreme.  Is this sustainable?

Paul Sporer: It’s really the HRs and 7 of the 16 have come in 2 games so it’s a confined problem. I trust him

Cookie: Give us a rankings teaser:  which one pitcher’s rank will surprise us the most?

Paul Sporer: Robbie Ray

Mariner Moose: I was getting ready to trade for Alonso… but he seems to be fading in his past 10 games.  Still a believer?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’m not jumping off after 10 games. There’ll be ebbs & flows

Marc: 12 team OBP league. Needed saves and have 1b and SP depth. Traded Smoak and Matz for Colome and Belt. Howd I do?

Paul Sporer: That works

AI: wilson ramos?  drop lucroy this weekend?  zunino available as well

Paul Sporer: Eeeek, I have a hard time flat dropping Lucroy, but I’m down to scoop Ramos. Can you cut someone else? It seems like a 1 C league, but so hard to cut Lucroy loose

All Star Avi: Is McCullers + deGrom enough for Arenado in this environment?

Paul Sporer: Depends on your trade partner, of course, but it’s definitely a strong offer

JSC: Conforto bounce back to being an above average player?

AI: thoughts on conforto?  mets sat him past 2 games

Paul Sporer: This is why we don’t say stuff like “Is Bellinger a 1st-2nd rounder” — remember how great Conforto was a few weeks ago

Paul Sporer: Anyway, re: Conforto, I think he’ll be fine

Amy: Is Jose Ramirez for real as a top 5 2B?

Paul Sporer: Bat is v comparable to Lindor’s. Love Ramirez

Frozone: Is the market for Godley uneventful in most leagues? It seems like most people in mine aren’t interested in him, even as a secondary piece in a deal

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s better than his reputation so you gotta hang tight with him as you just won’t get a return

RK: I think we’re both still believers in G. Bird, but what say you about moving him for a similarly priced (borderline keeper) S. Gray?  Context: 20 team keeper.  In 2nd so going for it, Bird likely won’t crack lineup with Alonso and Bellinger blocking him.  Need SP.  Market is obviously not super interested in Bird right now, but is that aiming too high, low, or just right?

Paul Sporer: I think that’s still pretty good in bear market for Bird, so I’d do it

Faria: Is faria worth trading for, what kind of player could you give up without giving up too much?

Paul Sporer: Not sure who to trade, too standings dependent right now, but I’m interested in scooping him. Reminds of his teammates Odorizzi and Andriese in terms of stat production with more Ks

Paul Sporer: Detroit reppin’ (NSFW lyrics… like even more than most of my songs)

Geronimo A: What does Marte look like ROS?

Paul Sporer: Francis or Starling?

Billy the Marlin: I’ve been clicking refresh for the past three days waiting for the rankings!  Can’t wait to see them.  Thanks for doing them.  The anticipation is killing me.

Paul Sporer: No problem! Sorry to make you wait until Friday, but wanted to give yall a treat for the weekend

Lars: You back on the Keon Broxton bandwagon in 10-team?  One of only seven players that have 10/+ HR and SB.

Paul Sporer: Kind of agree with the poop emoji

Paul Sporer: He NEEDS to run to have 10-tm appeal and he’s 1-for-2 in his last 32 gms

Allison: For 2018, how would you rank Faria, Zimmer, Devers and Brinson?

Paul Sporer: Zimmer, Brinson, Faria, Devers

Willie Mays Hayes: Lance Lynn or Tanaka ROS in a league that uses QS instead of W’s?

Paul Sporer: Gotta go Lynn rn

Matt: Deep league and have suffered a ton of pitcher injuries and the waiver wire is barren. Do you think Andrew Moore or Luis Castillo could have any value going forward? Or best to just leave them out there?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Moore and keep grinding for others in case he doesn’t stick

ELLO: Should I dump Rizzo while his stock his over the roof somebody offered Sano and Berrios and Kipnis

Paul Sporer: All three for Rizzo? That seems pretty strong even if it was just the Twins

Dan: Are you concerned about Lindor at all?  His babip obp avg are nosediving from last year, and while he’s hitting for power, it doesn’t seem to be very consistent.  Are you seeing anything different from him?

Paul Sporer: Major FB spike suggests he might be going for the power which can get you into some trouble, particularly w/AVG which is exactly his issue. Not worried, would inquire buying (even at market value, but I think you could squeeze a small discount

Dan: Better 2B for ROS – Starlin or Matt Carpenter? 10-tm weekly H2H w/6×6 (incl. both OBP and BB/K). Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Gimme Carp, but they’re very close

Dongmingo: Acquired Mancini for Piscotty? Seems like Mancini needs to start moving up some rankings. That cool? OPS league.

Paul Sporer: Ya I can  dig that deal and Mancini definitely needs to move up some

Pedroia: Pedroia has been injured and then when he plays he’s really only good for runs, can he be dropped 10 team h2h?

Paul Sporer: Ya, 2B deep enough to find someone else in 10-team

Mike V: Considering both long and short term who do you prefer between Jameson Taillon and Jharel Cotton?

Paul Sporer: Taillon, but I’m not quitting Cotton

Big Tuna: If I need HR and WHIP, would you trade Simmons/Holland for Odor/Kintzler?

Paul Sporer: No

Loco: Am I set with Ryon Healy as my 10-team 3B?

Paul Sporer: Set?? I don’t think so, Tim. But if you’re stacked elsewhere, then it’s not awful

Paul Sporer: He’s really a CI in 10 tm

aaron: Berrios or Faria ROS and beyond?

Paul Sporer: Berrios

Paul Sporer: Don’t repeat questions, yall. Queue fills fast and I get to as many as I can, but repeating is just annoying af

Ben: Blackmon owner has 5 Rockies on his team and has offered Blackmon for Mookie in order to diversify. Yes or no?

Paul Sporer: Pretty much a stationary move, but take the younger Betts

Not Paul Sporer: Any sleeper closers you suggest grabbing? Doolittle?

Paul Sporer: Rosenthal, Kahnle, Kela are interesting specs, too

Z: Better chance to turn things around, Tanaka or Porcello?

Paul Sporer: Tanaka

WILSON CONTRERAS: Somebody offered up Harper for Scherzer

Paul Sporer: Perfect

Jester: Joc Pederson worth another look?  Seems to be slowly coming to life.

Paul Sporer: Few were higher on Joc coming into the season than myself, but this HR era has really tanked his value. He’s basically “empty power” — in other words, no SB or AVG

Rob: Thanks for all the help! Always look forward to these chats!

Paul Sporer: Thanks, Rob!

Art: Is Jose Ramirez a top 50 keeper?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think so

Beefcake: Is Robbie Ray an ace now, or do you see him regressing to his projected 3.70/1.30?

Paul Sporer: You don’t get ace status off 10 starts, but he’s made some mechanical changes that are paying dividends. Had a strong two-start at home, too. Eager to see how he continues to hold up in ARI

Kenton: How soon should we be stashing Starling Marte in 10-team?  Still sitting on waivers in mine, and I’d have to drop a K. Broxton-type to add.

Paul Sporer: About now, tbh. I’m considering him in an NL only but I have to take the dead spot until he returns so I’m playing chicken with my leaguemates. Not sure if I wanna do it this week or next

Porcho Villa: Do you think Maeda will make it back into the Dodgers’ rotation soon? I feel like he’s not droppable. In a not unrelated story, my team name is I Maeda Huge Mistake.

Paul Sporer: LOL great name. I think he’ll be in and out. I understand cutting him in 10- and 12-teamers bc he’s just unreliable bc of role

Squints: Haniger for Alonso – who wins that trade?

Paul Sporer: Not sure it’s a clear win for anyone. Solid deal that hopefully fits needs

Porcho Villa: Another Thames would you rather: Thames or Belt?

Paul Sporer: Thames

Ken: So Castellanos is still top five in hard hit %, but he’s also still not doing much (fantasy-wise) aside from eating a spot on my roster. In what size league are you dropping him?

Paul Sporer: 10 almost certainly has something else on the wire. 12 might, but everywhere else I’m holding

Rikki Swango: Which side: Votto and J Montgomery for Kershaw and C Santana? Thx

Paul Sporer: Kershaw side

Lucky: The pitcher with the most saves in the Angels’ pen ROS is _____?

Paul Sporer: Norris

Anthony: is Hicks legit long term?

Paul Sporer: He fits my “Year Early” thing bc I’m always a year early on players and I loved him last year

Frustrated CarGo Owner: Am I crazy to consider trading Carlos Gonzalez straight up for Corey Knebel in a keeper league? I need another solid closer and I have this feeling that Carlos is toast. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: No you’re not. Cargo might go on a run, but Knebel has been NASTYYYYY. Good thing the Tigers traded him, they never need relievers (that’s mostly tongue in cheek, they traded him for Soria when making a run and needing RPs)

Paul Sporer: But I do wonder if they could’ve just promoted Knebel and let him figure it out. He’d been in the majors before by the time he was dealt. Just a salty Tigers fan.

Eric: Has Fiers made an adjustment that will

Eric: keep him with a sub 4s era ROS?

Paul Sporer: There is an adjustment, but simple regression kicked in, too. The HR rate just couldn’t stay that absurd. But he also started using sinkers more. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-grand-fastball-experiment/

Tom: Cut bait on Trumbo? He is losing playing time to Schebler and B. Zimmer

Paul Sporer: I kept waiting for the shoe to drop last year and it didn’t… until this year. I still think he has a surge in him, but OF is mad deep so I can see playing others over him.

Sean: Cut bait with Story?

Paul Sporer: Hitting .292 in last 30 and we know how good he can be when he gets going

WILSON CONTRERAS: Please rank Judge Conforto Bellinger Betts

Paul Sporer: Betts, Judge, Bellinger, Conforto

Nick: Do Kopech or Senzel sniff the Show this year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so, Tim

Cubs 2016: Uh, Happ is .261 over the last 15, and five dingers!

Paul Sporer: Ooh, .261!

Paul Sporer: Watch out, Ted Williams, here comes Ian Happ

Professor Donaldson: How worried should I be starting Yu and Tanaka tonight?

Paul Sporer: I understand the nerves, but I think you gotta roll both. Yu for sure.

Don: Moustakas or Bellinger for a 10 team roto redraft?

Paul Sporer: Belly bc he can get some swipes

Dan: Ah, I’m late! I’m sure you’ve got a ton of Schwarber stuff already, but just in case – what are you doing with him in a 12-teamer? I don’t have a ton of flexibility given the injuries on my bench, but I also don’t want to just cut him, so not sure what the play is here.

Paul Sporer: I actually haven’t!

Paul Sporer: I think there is a market to get SOMETHING so I have a hard time cutting him outright. I have him in an 11-team mixer and will probably dangle him for whatever I can get (streamer arm or something)

Squints: Ack – Ray will surprise us because he’s so high or so low?!

Paul Sporer: ?

Porcho Villa: Would a healthy Alex Wood be a Cy Young contender?

Paul Sporer: Oh no doubt. He’s been AMAZING.

Paul Sporer: OK, yall, I gotta get going. I’m finishing these SP rankings to get up here in the next hour or so. Follow me on Twitter @sporer or Snapchat at psporer (I’ll be in San Diego this weekend!) and also come by my stream at Twitch.tv/psporer24 — Jason and I recorded yesterday to release tomorrow so you won’t be pod-less this weekend

Paul Sporer: Have a great week, yall!

City of Champ-Yinz: Going to start working from home more often. Got any tips?

Paul Sporer: Had to put this one. Set a routine. Get up and move. Ignore the distractions. Some can’t have the TV on bc they’ll just watch too much or same with social media. So find your rhythm and try different things. But get up and move at least every hour

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real