Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 21st, 2019

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! Let’s talk some baseball!!

Zig: Mercado worth a look?

Paul Sporer: Ya, for sure. Speed guy who has shown some pop, too. I really like him.

Zac Gallen: What did you think of my start yesterday, and prospects for ROS?  Hold?  Sell?

Paul Sporer: Dug the start for sure. Mixed four pitches well, solid velo, and really handled the Cards. They ran up his count a bit, but I was impressed. My only concern is the crunch of pitchers once Lopez & Smith get healthy, but I’d scoop Gallen anywhere and let it play out bc you never know w/injuries

Cookie: Jorge Soler: hold or stream in 10-team (5 OF)?

Paul Sporer: Both? Meaning you stream him from reserve to lineup instead of letting him go after streaming him

Rick Honeycutt: who do you like ROS segura or dejong?  I would say speed vs. power, but both have shown same SB.  I need overall 5×5 performance

Paul Sporer: I prefer DeJong. He went through a funk recently, but he’s coming out of it and I really love the plate approach improvements he’s made

Wardo: In a weekly H2H categories league, is Blake Treinen worth the risk anymore?  When he’s bad, he torpedoes my ratios for the whole week, and its starting to feel like the bad and good come in equal doses

Paul Sporer: The ratios are a lot worse than many prob realize (4.08 ERA/1.53 WHIP), but he does still have 16 SVs. I guess if you’re getting the saves elsewhere, you can move on, but otherwise I think you have to ride it out and look at him as a third tier kinda closer instead of your top tier one

99: How many guys end the season with 50+ HRs this year?

Paul Sporer: 4

Dave: I’m getting nothing out of Votto and I there doesn’t seem to be much on the waiver wire.  Do you like Bauers, Santana, or McMahon better?

Paul Sporer: Make sure to include league context, y’all, bc it’s critically important. This seems like a shallower lg, 10-12 teams, if Carlos Santana is on the wire. I’d prefer him to Votto. He’s been amazing this year

Thomas: Should I hold Clint Frazier in my minor league slot? Yanks media just announced they won’t trade him for a rental. Do you think he sees the big leagues again this year?

Paul Sporer: I’d hang onto him. There is still tons of injury risk on that team and I’d bet on him getting back to the majors before Sept.

Lance: Your boy Laureano has been beasting.  Is he too fringy for shallow formats or should be be owned?

Paul Sporer: Took him a while, but he’s got a .298/.329/.536 line w/8 HR & 5 SB over his last 40 games and I do think he’s viable all over at this point. Might be more of a streamer/reserve in 3 OF setups, but his skills are diverse enough to roster

Phil: Hill is droppable for roto, right? Who’s it going to be in the rotation, Urias or Stripling?

Paul Sporer: Definitely droppable. I love Stripling, but it looks like they might let the two share outings as they did yesterday. I think they want Urias to be the guy, but then pair him up with Stripling for 2-3 IP in those outings.

Lars: Howie Kendrick’s efficiency has been off the charts this season, and yet his manager has him on the bench quite a bit.  Is he worth holding in my MI slot in a 10-teamer?

Paul Sporer: It’s maddening to see him not play full-time which makes it tough to have him in a 10-teamer, but I think he’s been so good that we can get away with it… I say we bc he’s my MI in a 10 teamer (H2H pts)

Cory: 15 team keeper league, would you move Martin Perez for Gallen, Yamamoto, Valdez, Mahle or Lynn?  Or stick with Perez.  I am still trying to win this year

Paul Sporer: If I’m going for it this year, I think Lynn is the only one I’d favor over Perez with Gallen close, but tough to rely on without a guaranteed long-term spot and a terrible supporting cast.

Bo: What can we expect from Keuchel tonight and this season?

Paul Sporer: Who knows for tonight, but for the season I think he can be a little better than last year, particularly with his WHIP. Maybe something like: 3.70 ERA/1.25-1.30 WHIP? Should be able to improve his 18% K rate just by virtue of facing the SP twice a game

MIcah: 10-team redraft challenge trade!: Matt Chapman for Rafael Devers.  Who ya got?

Paul Sporer: Loooove Matt Chapman, but I gotta go Devers here. I think his AVG will be better and while he won’t necessarily drop another 8 SBs, I think he’ll get a handful (4-5) which is more than Chapman and enough to be the difference

Chase: This team has struggled in 16tm H2H so far but I’m remaining patient. Who should I be looking to deal to upgrade at 1B or bolster pitching depth? We play OBP/TB/QS/SV+H/K:BB besides the usual counting stats.

C – Roberto Perez (have been streaming)
1B – Votto (Lowe – NA)
2B – Torres (Ramirez)
3B – Ramirez (Guerrero Jr, Riley, Kingery)
SS – Lindor (Torres, Kingery, Kieboom – NA)
LF – Soto (Jimenez, Riley, Pence)
CF – Trout (Kingery)
RF – D. Santana (Pence)
Util  – Cruz

SP – Snell, Nola, Soroka, Smith (IL), Flaherty, Hamels, Darvish
RP – Vazquez, Ottavino, Britton

Paul Sporer: Best bet is to flip some youth to strengthen 1B and/or pitching. Guys like Riley, Vlad, Jimenez, and Kingery will play well in the trade market and should be able to get you some goods

BK: At this point in the season, if I’m 10/12 in an NL only roto and really haven’t been over 8th all season, is it time to pack it in and look to next season? I still like my talent, but I feel like I’ve dug too deep a hole

Paul Sporer: It really depends on the standings. You have to analyze the categories and do an honest assessment of how many pts you can get if things pan out well for you. If there are major gaps just to get a pt or two in several categories, then you’re probably toast, but if you’re a small jump from multiple pts in many categories, it’s worth continuing to grind it out

Doctor Pelotas: First time poster, long-time reader. In a 10-team mixed points league: Laureano or Franmil? Yamamoto or Gallen?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Laureano and Gallen here. Reyes has fantastic pop, but I imagine he’s challenged in pts lgs w/his poor AVG/OBP combo. I see Yamamoto as more of a deep lg option right now: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/a-closer-look-at-jordan-yamamoto/

Logan: 6×6 roto, flipped Kimbrel for Caleb Smith and Joe Musgrove, how’d I do?

Paul Sporer: Not a bad gamble there. Smith has a rehab slated soon so he should be back soon and I still believe in my boy Musgrove (at least for now)

averagejoe: Is there going to be a point where Carp is droppable or if I’ve waited this long so I may as well ride it out now that hes been ‘better’?

Paul Sporer: Man I’m having flashbacks to last year when I advised cutting him and then he went offffffff

Paul Sporer: But it’s BRUTAL and we’re deeper than we were last yr

Paul Sporer: If it’s a 10-teamer, I’m OK moving on tbh

OddBall Herrera: Dilbert, Dogbert, Catbert, Adbert

Zig: Re Mercado, who would you consider dropping for him in 10 teamers? Brantley? or lower

Paul Sporer: Not Brantley, no… gotta be lower

averagejoe: I sold high on Bryan Reynolds, am I going to regret that given his good exit velocity, but good but not great xstats?

Paul Sporer: Really depends what ya got, but I’m not against selling high even if someone stays hot

Garth: You fully buying the Kingery breakout?

Paul Sporer: I’m buying a good bit of it, he’ll obviously cool some, but this is what his big backers were hoping for last year

BigTuna: Should we be worried about Cain? Sprint speed is down, GB rate is up, stats are down across the board.

Paul Sporer: Yes I’d say so. He’s a focal pt on the pod out later today

nisher: Would you give up Nola for Glasnow in h2h points? Or is it a hold and wait? Also have Buehler, Corbin, Berrios, Teheran, Chirinos.

Paul Sporer: I’m fine taking that shot. I’m pretty out on Nola rest of season

Ken Giles Right Hook: Do you think Montas is heading to Fantasy Ace-dom?

Paul Sporer: He’s certainly on the cusp. He has it all now with 3 reliable pitches including that new splitter. He’s a monster and I’m moving him up my rankings seemingly every month

Here’s the Story: Should I be trying to trade Story in a 3-year keeper league? He has 1 year of eligibility left.

Paul Sporer: Depends on the return, of course. Obviously, the price just went way down, but I’m not entirely averse to it

BigTuna: Are you stashing Dinelson in a 12 tm? With Pablo doing on DL, he’d need to take up a bench spot until Pablo or Hendricks return.

Paul Sporer: No, I just don’t like guys in their first year back from TJ, especially if he’s not a stash DL

Anders: Is this the Puig turnaround we’ve been waiting for?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I knew he wasn’t THIS bad and he’s been great over his last month-ish: .286/.323/.582, 7 HR, 12 R, 13 RBI, and even 3 SB

Paul Sporer: (Sorry for the delay, had a phone call!)

HappyFunBall: re: Kendrick. He tore his Achilles last season and is not young. The Nats simply aren’t going to play him full time. Enjoy him in daily leagues where you can check the lineup, and settle for the fact that in weeklies he’s just a part timer

Paul Sporer: Ya that makes sense, plus he’s likely to be traded and remain a part-timer unless the Nats go off

Anders: If Kyle Tucker was called up today, would you drop either of Franmil or H. Dozier for him? H2H points league

Paul Sporer: I think Dozier is on a rehab assignment, so I’d probably lean to cutting Franmil in that scenario

purplemini: Luis Rengifo: future regular or AAAA guy or still too soon to tell?

Paul Sporer: I could see him becoming a second division regular with some AVG and SB usefulness

Guest: How was a player with a 13 k/9 and 3 ERA in the PCL, from the Cubs org of all teams, chugging along w/ relatively little fanfare like Alzolay was?  I mean, to date everyone’s been salivating over guys like Cease, with his 4 something ERA and efficiency issues.  Is there something in this profile that I’m missing?

Paul Sporer: It was only 32 IP in the PCL this year and he threw all of 40 IP all of last year so I think the track record just comes up short in comparison to Cease. That said, Cease was a 50 FV by Eric & Kiley while Alzolay was a 45+. I think Cease was seen as having a more direct path. It makes sense for him to been more well thought of in fantasy coming into the season

Kyle tucker: Am I worth holding in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: It’s certainly debatable, but if you can continue to make it work without hurting your squad, I’d keep him for now

Rob: 12 team H2H. Take a shot on alzolay over Pivetta?

Paul Sporer: Nah, Pivetta for me

PAL: Can Brandon Dixon be one of the better waiver wire pickups of the season (in non-OBP leagues, at least)? Garbage plate discipline but legit speed and pop per Statcast (88th percentile sprint speed, .265 xBA, .518 xSLUG, 10.2% Barrels/PA which is top 20 overall)

Paul Sporer: He’s been a pretty solid accumulator, but that HORRID 30% K and 3% BB will tank his AVG (and has already started to with a .234 AVG/.239 OBP). I’d probably get out before it gets tooo bad

AJ: Disappointing Reds OFs: Would you rather buy low on Jesse Winker or (for a tiny bit more) Puig?

Paul Sporer: If I can still get a discount on Puig, it’s definitely him, but I actually like both so I’ve been holding my shares of the pair

AJ: You highlighted Quantrill in the upcoming SP piece. He is throwing harder and Ks… his recent-year scouting reports have been bad, but as is he farther from injury,is he nowcloser to his original prospect potential? or is he still junk?

Paul Sporer: Ya, his profile is rising for me. I understand why his prospect status waned, but we’re seeing more and more of the pedigree that made him so exciting in the first place

Mike: What do you think of Wheeler ROS? Metrics suggest better days ahead. But hes giving up a ton of hits and his BABIP isn’t that far off his career average

Paul Sporer: Man, between Wheeler & Thor, are there any two more maddening quality starters?! 50 H and 11 HR in his last 45 IP are worrisome for sure. We need to see some changes to expect better results bc as you mention, it’s not just a huge BABIP or anything, and while the HR/FB rate is high, it’s not overly egregious. I’m cooling a bit on my Wheeler love. I’m holding my shares in 12- and 15-teamers, but not trying to acquiring a bunch more

Bo: Donaldson got hot in a hurry. Rest of season, can we expect something closer to his slow start or the recent on-fire production?

Paul Sporer: With health, I’m expecting good Donaldson. I’d look for something like a 125-130 wRC+ with good power and strong counting categories as part of a quality offense

Franmil: With all of this power, I have to start drawing some walks at some point, right?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily. This profile of great pop, poor OBP isn’t terribly uncommon

Tom: Who are the next potential difference maker pitchers to be called up?

Paul Sporer: Jesus Luzardo, Brendan McKay, and Dylan Cease

Henry Rowengartner: Hey Paul! Paddack and Abreu for Snell? 12tm H2H points league.

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m good with that

BK: NL only, if I need wins and he needs saves, is Will Smith for Fried a good trade?

Paul Sporer: Yes that matches needs quite well. Always nerve-racking to chase Ws, but Fried is a quality pitcher on a good team and I think they’ll improve their bullpen in the summer, either via trade or with propsects from their system

baseballdude: what to make of Giolito?  was he just ‘due’ for a bad outing vs a tough cubs lineup in non-ideal weather?  is he top 12 ROS?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m unmoved by a bad start. I think we overreact too much when a breakout has a bad start like “is this the beginning of the end?!!?”. Everyone has a dud from time to time. I’m a big Giolito fan. He’s not top 12, but he’s a must start until further notice and in my top 25

AL bEAST: With the Yankee big bats getting healthy, is now a good time to sell AL East guys like Price, Snell, Morton, etc.?

Paul Sporer: Because of one team?

Paul Sporer: The thing is, their offense has already been great against righties so I’m not worried about Morton. Snell’s already been torched by them despite the fact that they’ve been rather bad vL this year. I’m not really trading them just bc of the Yankees getting healthy

Tom: Hi Paul,

Paul Sporer: Hey Tom!

kyle: tonight will be the first time pujols has played in st. louis since playing for the angels if you can believe that

Paul Sporer: I can believe that and I’ve wondered if maybe they were waiting to get for this series before trying to work something out to get him to retire, but he’s actually been non-awful this year (97 wRC+ qualifies as non-awful given the expectations we had for him), maybe they just ride it out

Tom: I have both Ozzie and Hiura in a 20 team keep 6 forever league. Points, so I don’t necessarily care about steals. Which one should be my long-term second baseman?

Paul Sporer: Tough to really split them, tbh. I still love Albies and lean toward him, but I’d gladly keep both and slot the other at MI or UT.

Rocco: Who fills Hill’s spot- Urias or Stripling?   Also do you have a preference for Rodgers or McMahon?

Paul Sporer: It’s looking like Urias (we discuss on the pod, though) and I prefer McMahon by a little

John: Victor Robles is going to, like, hit for average right? Kind of a weird season from him so far

Paul Sporer: Long term, I think he will be an AVG guy, but he needs to cut that 25% K rate

Cito’s Mustache: Hey Paul, just wanted to say I loved your “Planning Ahead” piece and hope it becomes a regular contribution. So helpful!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much, I will make it a regular piece as the response has been nice

Boris: Am I being too patient with Danny Jansen?  Kelly and Perez on WW. 12-team mixed keeper

Paul Sporer: Ya, I was quite high on him coming into the season put decided to move on, especially in 1-C leagues

Telemachus: You in for the Plutko 2-step next week?

Paul Sporer: v KC and at BAL…. maybe in AL-only, but I’m not a fan of the Josh Tomlin-esque profile

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going and work on posting the pod (special guest Ariel Cohen is on it!) and then recording the Fireside w/Nick. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!