Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 1st, 2018

Paul Sporer: Let’s take some baseball!!!

Ridge: Rendon+Devenski for Springer?

Paul Sporer: Seems fair!

Joe: I am in 8th place in my roto league. What can I do?

Paul Sporer: Do an honest assessment of what kinda points you can gain in each category without good but not off-the-charts production and then make moves accordingly. Attack where you can get the most points first and go from there

Smalls: Garrett Richards has a 3.67 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.  But if you remove his two disastrous starts against the Yankees, in his other 9 starts, he has a 2.52 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP (9.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9).  What do you expect from him going forward?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Richards fan without a doubt, but he seems to *always* have the couple of duds mixed in which keeps him from being that low or sub-3.00s ERA guy. I still love the arm talent and will continue to start him across all formats

Mayday Malone: 12 team OBP league (H2H): if I deal Lowrie for a SP, what level of SP should I try for?

Paul Sporer: Let’s put a quick kibosh on these Qs before we get too many. It allll depends on your needs and league market. Better to say “I’m trying to get one X, Y, and Z for Lowrie, whattya think?”

Corky: Is Cervelli for real?  Can he keep this up?

Paul Sporer: He has major changes behind this surge so yes I do think what we’ve seen is real and can continue at a strong clip – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/sporer-report-issue-5-cervellis-power…

Southcoast: NL only 4×4 13 owners,  looking to pick up a player for Hoskins for a couple of weeks.  Max Muncy LA and Gorkys Hernandez look like to best two available at this time.  Who you like better for the next month?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Muncy by a shred. I just think you missed the best of Gorkys already

Rocky: Yelich for Gleyber?

Paul Sporer: Prefer Yelich

Paul Spider: Hi Paul

Paul Sporer: Hola

Matthew: Are you buying Ames Rosario’s last 30 days?

Paul Sporer: He had a .725 OPS with 3 HR, 3 SB in May… he’s in big trouble if he can’t maintain that

Dan: Taillon or Musgrove ROS?

Paul Sporer: Taillon. That new slider could be a game changer – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jameson-taillon-has-a-new-pitch/

DB: Paul!  NFBC 12 teamer, are you holding or dropping Reynaldo Lopez?  Not sure the K rate supports the peripherals

Paul Sporer: His last 2 starts are such a perfect microcosm of ReyLo – 7 IP/2 ER, 2.7 IP/7 ER

In a Vacuum: Points league ROS: please rank Candelario, Soler, Nimmo

Paul Sporer: Candyman

Paul Sporer: BTW, I didn’t really answer on ReyLo… dropping in 12-team

Squints: 12 team OBP league (H2H):  Khris Davis and Tyson Ross for Springer?

Paul Sporer: Fair move

Matthew: Deep, 14-team, 5×5, weekly lineups. How is Billy Hamilton best deployed? Play him on weeks he goes against poor throwing catchers?

Paul Sporer: On the waiver wire

Paul Sporer: Honestly, if you have him in a format like that, you just gotta ride it out. He can steal 4 bases against a healthy Yadi so I wouldn’t try to get cute

Big Tuna: I was able to get Dennis Santana in a 12 tm keeper league. He’s had a bit of a meteoric rise this year, so I’m not sure what you think of his long term value.

Paul Sporer: I like scooping him for the lighting in a bottle aspect as he’s been fantastic this year, but my *expectation* is for the normal volatility of a 22-year old.

Big Tuna: 1st in steals and last in saves in 12 tm OPS league. Trade Cain and Kingham or Heaney for Puig and Morrow?

Paul Sporer: That works, do it with Kingham.

Juan Nightstand: Rank ’em ROS…Musgrove, C.Smith, Soroka, C.Gonzalez, J.Gray, J.Castillo, Duffy. Thx

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mid-may-starting-pitcher-rankings-up…

Joe: So, you’re saying I should punt saves if I have 18 and the next closest is 30?

Paul Sporer: Ya unless you have a couple underperforming closers and want to get a third, but probably best to focus elsewhere

Dave: Would you trade Mac Williamson for Sean Manaea in a 16-team keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Bruce: Drop Bundy for which one, if any, of the following on waivers: Cahill, Gibson, Godley, MGonzales,Guerra, Kuhl, Musgrove, Taillon, Teheran. ERA, Wins, k/9. Lots of names which is why you’re the man.

Paul Sporer: None of em

Jay: Bregman or albies for the rest of the year?

Paul Sporer: Albies

Dan: Hope for Goldy? His Hard% and FB% are aligned with career numbers. HR/FB rate 14.5% (21% career).  Those K’s man. His O-swing% is way up. Is it just approach?

Paul Sporer: Ya the fact that he’s decimating lefties and still hitting on the road also hearten me. He’s not toast

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: Getting asked Jose Ramirez and MadBum for Trout in a keep forever points dynasty. JRam and Trout are essentially putting up the same total points so I’m tossing in MadBum for *free* to this guy. What level of SP could I ask for with Trout?  Stras? Castillo? Carrasco? Thanks!!

Paul Sporer: If he came at you w/those 2 for Trout, he’s not throwing back Stras or Carrasco. Castillo isn’t out of bounds to ask

Kyle: Blake Swihart is catcher eligible. Is he a guy to pounce on quick. Currently playing no catcher as the roster spot is more valuable with an extra pitcher then playing a black hole and killing the average. H2H league.

Paul Sporer: I largely disagree w/the idea that an open spot is better, even in H2H, espec. bc Cs just don’t play enough to actually kill the avg. That said, Swihart is doing NOTHING at the dish so I’m not sure you’d see ANY difference. I keep visiting profile page like every other day hoping for a reason to pick him up, but always come away emptyhanded

Joe: Dominguez or Neris ROS?

Paul Sporer: Seranthony

Paul Sporer:

CJ : Can we collectively stop answering questions with “Its close I’ll take the hitter over the pitcher” Paul we know that already but we need pitchers on our rosters! Sometimes we have to risk a bat to gain an arm!

Paul Sporer: Then include context

Chicago Cardinal: McHugh, Bradley or Betances in 5×5 roto?

Paul Sporer: Bradley

Cory: Paul, pick up Nimmo, drop Grichuk in a keeper league.  Very different players but I think Grichuk’s path to playing time is cloudy at best.

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m definitely down for this. Just out on Grichuk right now

Sandy Ravage: Roto mixedleague 10 team keeper league: My offense is STOUT, but I need saves. I have Votto and Rizzo, is it over the top for me to ask a team with 4 closers to ask for 2 closers for one of Votto/Rizzo? Is that smart for me, or should I be patient and play waivers?

Paul Sporer: You can ask for 2, yes. The deal might morph from there, but if you only get 1, make sure it’s the best one for sure

Scooby: I’ve read several experts predict that Jon Gray has good underlying stats and is a buy low. Are you on that train?

Paul Sporer: Ya everything is there in the component numbers, but a .376 BABIP is yielding a 10.7 H/9 and doing a lot of damage. The problem is that he plays in a park that isn’t going to curb hits and so the correction might never come. But ya, some are cutting him and many others are dealing him cheap so I’m down to buy low on Gray

Kershugh: Ready to offer Kershaw + Kela for Syndergaard in 12-team Roto. Isn’t Thor’s health >> Kershaw’s health, so this is a win?

Paul Sporer: No pitcher is two >s more healthy than another. They’re all just healthy until they aren’t and it’s not like Thor has some sparkling health record. That saaaiiiddd, I’m good with this deal

Cory: Pick up Stripling, drop Stratton?

Paul Sporer: 100000%. How is Stripling available?

Noah: I don’t know if you can answer, but it is a question on projections. The BAT seems to be quite aggressive. This is ancedotal. Any reason why? Zips and Steamer are usually closer together but the Bat is a clear outlier. Look at Severinos projections for example for ERA: 3.32 for Steamer, 3.03 for Zips, and 2.82 for the Bat. Just seems really aggresive.

Paul Sporer: Maybe it’s just that other systems are painfully conservative making The BAT stand out by comparison. Derek puts a lot into the system and instead of just coming in low all the time, the system isn’t afraid to put some big numbers out there if the skills merit it.

JD: Are you still hanging on to Deshields in 10-teamers?

Paul Sporer: Unless my steals are on lock, yes. It’s still just 175 PA and while he’s been rough, we’ve at least got 10 SB in a month-plus (about a 45 SB pace)

Frank: Is Staton for Scherzer fair in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Yes, star for star

Ian: Is Greg Allen worth picking up in a deep league? In other words, do you think he wrests a starting OF job away from Cabrera once Zimmer returns?

Paul Sporer: Ya I like Allen. Became a fan at Fall League a couple years back and think he has impact speed. Could see his star rising this summer

Shelby Miller: In deeper formats (14-team H2H with deep benches) is Shelby Miller a sneaky add?

Paul Sporer: Shhhhh

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m kidding. I’m usually very cautious on TJ returners, especially at the draft table but as a waiver stash, sure

Ben: Chris Taylor vs. Tim Anderson ROS: who ya got? (12 team H2H categories)

Paul Sporer: Still digging Taylor

Chicago Cardinal: Who are going to be the biggest movers in your June re-rank?

Paul Sporer: Not entirely sure yet, but already started working on it. Will move my boy Fulmer down, but I’m not burying him like some want. He’s not a bad pitcher and those who think he is just don’t watch him

Redbeard: Short term blip or is Lowrie turning into a pumpkin?  Is Happs turnaround for real?

Paul Sporer: Lowrie was gonna cool from April. I still believe in the talent. It’s only health with him, IMO. When healthy, he’s always been a capable bat. Happ is who he is… big power guy who isn’t here for 1Bs. Imagine where his AVG will go when that .371 BABIP dips, though

Jay: I missed my chance to sell high on Odubel and now he’s treated like a leper when I offer him up in trades.  What do you see from him ROS?

Paul Sporer: Nightmarish 2 weeks so it’s the worst time to trade him, but I’m not sure you’d have gotten a ransom at his peak as it wasn’t much beyond the AVG/OBP

Paul Sporer: Just hang onto him, he’s a solid OF

Hey yo: ROS:  Span or DeShields as 5th OF?  16 team H2H points.  SB are 1.5 points.

Paul Sporer: DDS still for me

Kip: Albies or Benintendi in a 10-team keeper league (assuming each respective position can be filled adequately)?

Paul Sporer: Albies

Paul Sporer: I went Albies over Beni and Breg, but the truth is those 3 are damn close and I’m taking personal preference. I have a hard time finding MAJOR separation between ’em

Coo Coo: churned my roster a little and dropped kinsler and bell for yonder and carp. Any of these guys stand out over the others to you in a 12 team standard league?

Paul Sporer: I still believe in Kinsler, but I have no issue with your moves. Carpenter has been out of mind. I was super worried about the shoulder holding him back despite the underlying numbers, but now he’s getting the results to go with the component numbers so if he’s healthy the rest of the way, he’s the best of the quartet here

EG: Muncy, Lamb, Mancini…rank Ros for utility spot. 12 team 5×5 roto with obp

Paul Sporer: Lamb’s been brutal, but he’s just getting going. I still prefer him mots of the bunch.

Chuck: Matt Olson … in a 12-team H2H league with OBP/SLG, is he worth holding onto? Or drop for someone like Matt Adams, Soler, Bour.

Paul Sporer: Olson’s gonna be fine and probably have a big power run at some pt, but all 3 are playing markedly better than him right now so I’d move on. Bour is my favorite, but I’d also check WASH schedule each week and if they are play 0-1 lefties, go with Adams

Matt: I’m in a weekly lineup dynasty league and I have Ohtani. I feel like too much risk is tied up in the Angels controlling of his innings. Is this a season long thing, or are they prepping to put him to a closer-to-standard schedule for the push in the second half?

Paul Sporer: No, this is gonna be pretty regular. I feel like a max of 160 IP. This is what we bought, it wasn’t hidden

Al: Godley or Musgrove RoS?

Paul Sporer: Still Godley

yojiveself: will aguilar keep a starting job when thames and braun are back?

Paul Sporer: Maybe not a set-it-and-forget-it role, but he’ll get a bigger share if he continues to rake vL and vR

hscer: should I be holding Barnes in a 2C league where I have Perez and Suzuki?

Paul Sporer: No, you’re good w/the other 2.

SparkyMcguffy: Trev Bauer for Bennitendi? Fair offer or not enough?

Paul Sporer: Very fair

AJ: H2H 12 team league, weekly lineups, regular cats w/MI/CI/UTIL. Currently riding Miguel Rojas as my SS, Solarte 2B & Gennett as MI. The SS options are terrible & MI isn’t much better: Peraza, Castro, Descalso, Kipnis, Robertson, Munoz, Marte or ride Rojas did a bit?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Descalso or Robertson over Rojas

AJ: Also, thanks for the chat as always and happy Friday!

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome! What are yall up to this weekend?

Al: Is it time to accept that Puig is basically a league average hitter (100-110 WRC+) & nothing special?

Paul Sporer: Brad, is that you?

Paul Sporer: He had a nightmare April and a great May, let’s see where he goes from here. I still think he’s definitely better than “nothing special” as his 128 OPS+ coming into this year suggests and that’s even w/the health issues. Healthy Puig is very much special.

Ark: Taillon for Price? Which side you prefer

Paul Sporer: Price, but Taillon’s new freezer could make that closer

Paul Sporer:

Chet: can we get a Junis writeup please? don’t feel like he’s getting enough credit

Paul Sporer: I can take a deeper look, but I think he’s overpraised if anything. Mediocre K-BB with a terrible HR issue. A better Josh Tomlin

MarlinsGuy: Paul you are my guiding light, and I need some confirmation that I didn’t get hosed. Gave Albies, got Severino in a 12-team keep forever H2H points. Did I sell high on a hype beast?

Paul Sporer: You did well! Got a lockdown ace for Albies!

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Traded Sean Newcomb for Justin Turner last week (though I have Jose Ramirez and Freddie Freeman 3B eligible). Swapped Turner with Zach Britton for Zack Greinke in a W/L/QS league. Tell me how good I should feel (because I feel good).

Paul Sporer: So Newk & Britton for Greinke. It’s nice, I like it

E: Missed your hot take mailbag but here mine goes – paying for saves will be the new don’t pay for saves. With starters going fewer innings the ratios and Ks the elite guys give you make them more valuable, and chasing the ‘next closer’ and grabbing late round guys can blow your ERA and leave you holding the bag.

Paul Sporer: Ya I think we’ve been seeing more of a shift for many who are willing to grab the stud guys, but you’ll still have the split camps on it. I tend to lean toward wanting an established stud bc the assets and headache of chasing saves is never fully accounted for when preaching this strategy. “Just get saves off the wire!” as if that doesn’t cost hella FAAB as everyone else chases them, too

Nels: Christian Villanueva gonna remains 10-team relevant ROS?

Paul Sporer: Fringe there. I buy the power, but .245/30 HR isn’t a hard find in 10 tm

Kevin: Greg Bird has been batting 3rd recently so it seems like he’s got Boone’s vote of confidence. Does he have yours?

Paul Sporer: Until he gets hurt again, ya. Just traded for him this past weekend and then broke my ankle while sleeping

Dr. Pelotas: Are you seeing signs of hope in Luke Weaver? Do you consider him or Flaherty the more desirable Cards SP ROS?

Paul Sporer: I think Weaver *can* get down toward his 3.72 FIP, but his current performance is well within the range of outcomes. He felt a little overhyped this draft season, but I was also the guy going off on Luis Castillo’s excellence so I’ll chill on trying to take Ws lol

Larkey: Byron Buxton belongs on waivers in 10-team, correct?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Lours: Franmil Reyes a 10-team bat or too shallow?

Paul Sporer: Too shallow and you already missed the 3 HR surge

Evan: Bellinger and Clevinger for Stanton?

Paul Sporer: Fair deal

Trevor: Is Manaea broken?

Paul Sporer: The dreams of the outsized expectations after his April are broken. I would take 200 IP of 3.60 ERA allll day from Manaea.

seth: Kershaw for Goldy?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Goldy

Dflah: Re: Goldy. You buying low? Or do we need to see his zone tighten up? His owner is in sell mode this year.

Paul Sporer: It’s really more of a buy bc no one is really selling him that low. Or least not the deals I’ve seen. But yes, buy Goldy

Who: miss your Kyle Gibson profile pic?

Paul Sporer: Go to sleep, Justin

E: Give me a Hanley Ramirez take please

Paul Sporer: He’ll get scooped somewhere

Linus: Joey Votto just “joey Vottoing” or is there reason for concern?

Paul Sporer: He’s a stud

Kakie Bryan: Who’s more droppable after a bad week: Drake or JR Smith?

Paul Sporer: Hiding a baby worse than forgetting a score. Y’all know I love Drake, but huuuuugggeee L for him. Pusha went in

Guest: Joey Gallo still a top-10 1B for you in OBP leagues?

Paul Sporer: Was he ever?

Me, me, PICK ME!: Seriously, can we stop with the whole “if you remove XXX’s 2 bad starts, he’s really much better” analysis. It’s dumb. Every single pitcher is a lot better if you remove their worst performances.

Paul Sporer: Depends how it’s being used. Yes, everyone has duds and you can’t remove them and say the guy is this pitcher from the 8 games, but understanding the makeup of a game log is very important to me. I want the guy dominating 5 out of 6 and then getting trounced in the 6th as opposed to the guy meandering along with 5-6 IP of 3-5 ER every time

Maverick: Talk to me Goose.  The year of the Goose Tigers win World Series.

Paul Sporer: #RallyGoose

OddBall Herrera: How aggressive of a buy low is Darvish?  Top 30ish-40ish hitter?

Paul Sporer: I kinda have a standing rule to peace out on SPs in year 1 of a huge deal so I’m not really messing with Darvish this year. I’d want to pay lower than that

Yankz: Who’s the best speculative closer to target not named Kyle Barraclough?

Paul Sporer: Seranthony Dominguez

S: Dee Gordon or Joey Gallo in OBP/doubles?

Paul Sporer: Dee’s better in both categories

James: Does Kingery need to be sent down to get his head on straight?  He’s getting AB’s but just not looking good.

Paul Sporer: Ya maybe just a 2-week confidence booster

Jobu: 12 tm Roto league. I have Carlos Santana, Kyle Seager, and Jeimer Candelario for two spots. At some point I’ll need to cut one to add a pitcher. Who do I move on from?

Paul Sporer: Wow, I think I might go Candy over Seager tbh

Nick: What do you think of Charlie Morton, Marco Gonzales, and Marcelo Ozuna for Jose Martinez, Scott Kingery, and Fernando Tatis Jr? It’s a dynasty league (6 keepers) with 12 teams & I probably miss the playoffs.

Paul Sporer: I can get behind that

OddBall Herrera: I’m convinced that Maximilius Von Kepler is just some stolen bases and HR/FB regression away from stardom.  Am I crazy on this and if so why

Paul Sporer: In fairness, a lot of guys are SBs away from stardom but that doesn’t mean they’re coming. That said, I understand the excitement with Kep. Strong profile and I could definitely see a summer HR binge

Matt: Regarding removing the bad performance: Remove Ohtani’s 3 ER /2 IP when he got the blister, and his ERA goes from 3.18 to 2.70. That’s valuable info.

Paul Sporer: Exactly. As with any numbers, it’s about how it’s used. It can be used as carelessly as ppl using BABIP is a luck-o-meter, but it can also prove valuable to understand how they arrived at an ERA

DB: I’m always a bit confused when people say “% of FAAB%…do you interpret that as % of starting budget or % of your current budget?  I presume starting budget but it’s never clear to me…

Paul Sporer: I’m actually with you on that, tbh. It’s very difficult and I have a really hard time giving FAAB numbers bc it’s sooooooo context dependent

Matt: How would you rank Ozuna, Cruz and Cain?

Paul Sporer: Reverse order

TJ: Does Fulmer suck?  I think he sucks…but I’m not sure.  Yeah, he sucks.

Paul Sporer: Poor Carson Fulmer

Rick: Mitch Moreland taking the next step this year or small sample size-itis?

Paul Sporer: Meh. He has a hot run every year. Same guy

horoxix: hey Paul, what do you think the Giants need to do to overcome being a .500ish team?

Paul Sporer: Get healthy. Williamson is back and Bumgarner is almost back. Those will help for sure

Rocco: Mark Reynolds has been raking — will this continue?

Paul Sporer: See the Moreland answer. Just a hot run, he’s the same guy

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out. We’ll get a marathon chat shortly after the SP update (working on those this weekend!)

Ted: 12 team H2H mixed keeper, what to do with Shane Bieber?

Paul Sporer: Gotta move on right now. Plutko gets the next fifth start try and that’s not even until June 12th

Oscar: Would you drop Garrett Richards or David Price for E. Rodriguez?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t, no

QC: Still believe enough in Willie Calhoun and Luis Gohara to keep both in a one-NA Y! league?

Paul Sporer: Yes, prefer Calhoun

Paul Sporer: (Yes, I usually answer a couple quickies after saying I’m about to leave…)

Paul Sporer: Anyway, nooowww we’re done! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24). I’ll be streaming MLB The Show later and you can definitely come in and get your fantasy baseball questions answered in that chat (twitch.tv/psporer24) have a great weekend!