Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 14th, 2019

Transcript is live now!!

12:20

Paul Sporer: Gooood afternoon everyone, let’s talk some baseball!!!

12:21

Chuck: Paul, is Chance Sisco good now? Is he worth taking a chance on in a categories H2H over Alfaro?

12:22

Paul Sporer: Sisco might actually be panning out a bit??? I think I might stick with Alfaro, though, tbh

12:22

Joe: I need to cut one: Carpenter or Donaldson?

12:23

Paul Sporer: Ugh, that’s tough. I guess Donaldson

12:23

NOT MACKEL: Is it time to drop Joey Votto? I’ve playing for a couple weeks without a catcher, 12 team h2h.

12:23

Paul Sporer: I’m not entirely against cutting him in a 10- or 12-teamer

12:23

Big Tuna : I’m about done waiting for Puig in my 12 tm OPS. Is selling him and Jay Bruce for Ryu and Mancini selling too low?

12:24

Paul Sporer: No that’s a huge return

12:24

Big Tuna : ROS, would you prefer Heaney or Darvish? I just can’t seem to quit Yu and worried about health with Heaney.

12:26

Paul Sporer: They’re gonna be close when I re-rank…. I think I still lean Darvish by a shred

12:27

Deep League Catchers: Everyone keeps saying Mookie Betts will heat up, but it’s the middle of June with a ball made out of pure rubber and he has 11 HR’s, the same amount as Roberto Perez. What do you think?

12:27

Paul Sporer: ROBERTO PEREZ HAS 11 HOMERS?????

12:29

Paul Sporer: As for Betts, he’s fine

12:29

Deep League Catchers: Is Austin Barnes this bad or underperforming?

12:30

Paul Sporer: At this point, he’s just this bad until we see otherwise

12:30

Anders: When Justin Upton comes back from injury, who would you drop from Puig, Bryan Reynolds, and Eloy in a points league?

12:31

Paul Sporer: I think you can cut Puig right now. Ride out the Reynolds hot streak

12:32

Dan: Would you trade Stanton for Rendon in a dynasty league if you need help at 3B and have a loaded OF?

12:32

Paul Sporer: I would, yes

12:32

Jay Bruce is not afraid: Please rank RoS: Plesac, Canning, Lyles, J Nelson

12:32

Zipp: Was recently faced with the decision of dropped Riley or Carpenter to pick up Didi. Decided on Riley. Did I make the wrong choice? Should I have just kept them both? (12tm, H2H)

12:33

Paul Sporer: Noooo, I think I’d have held Riley.

12:34

Zipp: Jimmy Nelson has had 10 days off after his less-than-stellar first start of the year. Has a great matchup against the Giants. If he’s good this weekend, awesome! If he throws up another clunker, are we dropping?

12:34

Paul Sporer: I can get behind cutting in 10- and 12-team if he gets shellacked

12:34

dungeon master: Daniel Murphy pretty much same old same old the rest of the year?

12:35

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d say something like mid-.800s OPS

12:35

Koepka respecter: I was offered Flaherty for Conforto. Couldn’t pull the trigger. Would you have?

12:37

Paul Sporer: I’m fine turning that down if you prefer a better hitter

12:37

dungeon master: Max Kepler a real breakout or just a pretty hot stretch ?

12:38

Paul Sporer: Breakout IMO. He’s improved against righties and lefties and he’s part of that excellent lineup. Love Kep this year!

12:38

Craig: Any chance Elieser Hernandez sticks in Marlins rotation?

12:39

Paul Sporer: He could while Urena and Smith are down, but I don’t quite see it longterm, unless he goes off and forces someone else out

12:39

Jay Bruce is not afraid: Very deep league that counts assists RoS: Rengifo or Panik

12:40

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna go Panik. Muuuuch better contact rate.

12:40

James B: in a deep 15 teamer – when Correa got hurt, I traded Muncy for Seager (ughh)! Now need to decide between Asdrubal or Newman or waiver scrap heap. Ideas?

12:41

Paul Sporer: Man that’s toughhhh. I’d go Asdrubal

12:41

PAL: Which side would you prefer – Dahl and Darvish or Mazara and Giolito? 12 team 5×5 redraft

12:41

Paul Sporer: Maz/Gio

12:41

Da Fish : Are we finally seeing Garrett Coopers long awaited breakout?

12:42

Paul Sporer: Is it long awaited? I certainly knew of him coming into this year, but I didn’t realize we were waiting on him. At any rate, I buy into this and think he’ll be strong rest of season

12:42

Dave: A couple weeks into the season I traded Meadows for Puig and now I am sad.

12:42

Paul Sporer: Oh man

12:42

JoeyBoomBats: H2H points deep keeper league. Same cost to keep, who you got: Matt Olson or Pete Alonso?

12:43

Paul Sporer: I lean Olson, I’m a huge fan of his

12:43

Baxter: Would muncy and voit be enough in return for Correa and Mateo in a 10 team dynasty roto league? Good at SS wih mondesi

12:43

Paul Sporer: I think so, but I’m also huge on Muncy lol

12:43

Quadrangular: has Carson Kelly caught your eye at all?

12:44

Paul Sporer: For sure. He’s my C2 in one lg. He absolutely blasts lefties.

12:44

MI: Need a MI to replace Seager for 6 weeks: Chris Taylor, Odor, or B Dozier?

12:45

Paul Sporer: Gimme Taylor

12:45

Dave: You starting MadBum (at home) against the Brewers tomorrow?

12:45

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m goin with him

12:45

PAL: Canning has a 16% SwStr in 44 IP (only Snell and Cole have higher). How quickly does SwStr% stabilize and what does this mean for Canning’s RoS value?

12:47

Paul Sporer: I don’t know when SwStr is supposed to stabilize, but K rate does around 70 batters and he’s well over 2x that so I think we can expect him to continue to miss bats regularly

12:47

Deep League Catchers : Casali or Caratini RoS?

12:49

Paul Sporer: I just think Casali will get much more PT so I’d lean him

12:49

Big Tuna : An owner in my league keeps asking me what I want for José Ramirez. I know he’s looking to deal Price. Is Price for Jo Ram selling too low in an OPS instead of AVG league?

12:49

Paul Sporer: No I think that totally works

12:49

Trade values: standard $260 auction league. 1 year (the rest of this year of $14 Quintana) for 5 years Michel Baez at $1. Who adds more?

12:49

Paul Sporer: If you’re going for it, gimme Q for this year

12:49

Redbull: Top Hold guy in Cub bullpen once Kimbrel arrives?

12:49

Paul Sporer: Strop

12:50

Paul Sporer: Think it’ll be Kimbrel-Strop-Cishek

12:50

Underperforming 2B: Any hope in a rebound from dozier or odor?

12:50

Paul Sporer: I’m soooooooo over Odor. I’m nervous about any sort of Dozier rebound at this point, too. So my hope is quite low on both

12:50

Greg: Yonny Chirinos keeps on perfoming.  Yes he is overshooting his peripherals, but is he legit as an every week arm moving forward?

12:50

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure, I’m running him out regularly right now

12:50

Big Tuna : Time to cut Mikolas in a 12 tm? Rather have him Bundy, Quantrill, Pineda or Lambert?

12:53

Paul Sporer: Damn, that’s not a great group to choose from right now bc two of em have a BOS start coming, Q has a trip to COL coming up, and Lambert lives in COL. I’ll lean Bundy, I guess, and wait to use him next week at SEA

12:53

Freddie FreeHugz: How do you feel about Jorge Polanco long term. Thinking about offering Nelson Cruz for him in a dynasty. Doesn’t look like I am going to be able to compete this year.

12:54

Paul Sporer: I’d definitely do that. Polanco is a solid 25-year old SS and this may end up a career year

12:55

Deep League Frambers: Is Framber Valdez legit?

12:56

Paul Sporer: He’s a legit prospect and he was pitching quite well in the pen. I could see him succeeding for a good while

12:57

Joe: Catcher question – Posey or Phegley or close enough to not matter?

12:57

Paul Sporer: Probably the latter, but I’m fine going for Phegley. I just don’t see a reason to hold Posey in a 1C leagues right now

12:57

Dave: Expectations for Chavis ROS?

12:58

Paul Sporer: .240 AVG/17 HR

12:58

ttttttt: Are the BOS relievers worth holding (Barnes, specifically) if looking for saves? Not desperate and it’s kind of my flex spot for streamers.

1:00

Paul Sporer: I’d hang onto Barnes for now, I still think he’s the best guy in the pen for sure

1:00

Closer Shuffle: Joe Jimenez has been shaky. What are the odds that he will get the job if/when Greene gets traded? Anything suggesting he will improve?

1:01

Paul Sporer: Rough start to June, but I think he’ll smooth out and still be the guy once Greene is gone (they’d BETTER trade Greene, lol)

1:01

Deep League streamers: Brault (lefty) at Marlins or Matz vs StL today?

1:03

Paul Sporer: This is tough bc Brault has sneak tip been nice lately. I want to go with the better SP (Matz), but I think I’ll lean Brault here and play the matchup

1:03

Wayne Garrett: Has Alex Reyes lost his Mojo?

1:04

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure he’s ever really had it all that much outside of run here or there in the minors. It’s been a lot of hype and while I understand the hype, I find him overrated at this point

1:04

Guest: Robles for Tatis Jr. Which side are you on?

1:04

Paul Sporer: I prefer Robles

1:05

Cory: Keeper league, would you drop Christin Walker for Cooper?

1:05

Paul Sporer: I’m cool with that, ya

1:05

Mike: Is Zac Gallen getting the Vlad Jr treatment? Will we have to wait until next season to see him? When he comes up, what’s are your expectations?

1:06

Paul Sporer: No, pitchers don’t usually get that kind of treatment. I think he’ll get the call this summer

1:06

Rocco: Paul – any view on why Betts and JDMart continue to underperform their draft slots?  Is a major positive regression move coming?

1:08

Paul Sporer: When you buy guys like that, you’re buying the floor as much as the upside. They aren’t close to hurting us despite not quite performing like last year. I could still see them (and the BOS offense at large) going off for a month – 6 week run of excellence, but even if they remain in this realm, they’re completely fine

1:08

Ralph Rowdie: Keep forever: Betts and Alonso for Bellinger and Greinke. Which side do you prefer?

1:08

Paul Sporer: I’ll take Betts/Alonso

1:09

HappyFunBall: Upton will be back soon and I’m facing a bit of a roster crunch (12x standard Roto). Will have to let go one of my roster-bottoms OFs: Martinez, Thames, Grichuk, DeShields, … or, I suppose, Upton

1:10

Paul Sporer: Is that Jose Martinez? If so, him. If not, Grichuk

1:10

Dave: Is Giovanny Gallegos someone worth rostering if I’m chasing ratios, or just a reliever with a couple good months so far?

1:11

Paul Sporer: Sure, if it’s a league deep enough where rostering RPs to protect ratios is viable, Gallegos is worth a look. Can’t fake a 40% K rate (meaning he’s going to miss bat for sure… maybe not AT the 40% clip, but definitely at a high clip)

1:11

Wonderstruts: Need to cut one: Robinson Chirinos or Garver H2H OBP league?

1:12

Paul Sporer: I know Garver missed time holding his PA down a bit, but Chirinos is going to play more in general bc he doesn’t have a Jason Castro breathing down his neck so I’m going with him

1:13

paulfan19: ros points: tapia dickerson jacoby mercado?

1:13

Paul Sporer: Mercado

1:13

Big fly for Mike Trout: Rank ROS obp league. J Turner, yandy Diaz, Donaldson, Matt Chapman, Matt Carpenter.

1:14

Paul Sporer: Chapman, Turner, Diaz, Carp, JD

1:15

Crowded Outfield: Do you see Reddick losing playing time once Springer comes back in favor or Alvarez?

1:16

Paul Sporer: No Springer will go in for Marisnick

1:16

Casey: 16 team league and I need pitching help, is Didi for a ‘US’ tier pitcher too ambitious?

1:16

Paul Sporer: No I think you can get some US guys for him. Just find the right buyer who can really use Didi

1:17

Ryan: Whats up with Skaggs? Is he still rosterable in a 15team 5×5?

1:17

Paul Sporer: I think he’s at least reservable. But he’s in that range where if your specific team is full, you can cut him. On guys like that, I like to say they need to be on a roster in a 15-teamer, but not necessarily YOUR roster

1:18

Purple Mays Haze: Who do you prefer ROS: Thor or Carrasco?

1:18

Paul Sporer: Thor (get better soon, Carlos!)

1:18

Ryan: Jake Bauers – What the heck?

1:18

Paul Sporer: He’s un-good. I was wrong about him delivering some late value

1:19

Guest: Playing time starting to be a worry for Hicks if he doesn’t get going by the time Stanton and Judge return?

1:19

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I don’t think he’ll necessarily lose a lot of time. They’ll give him a chance to work through it. He doesn’t even have 100 PA yet

1:19

Joe: My Verlander for his Sale?

1:19

Paul Sporer: What’s the point?

1:20

Anders: What would Cal quantrill have to do tonight to grab your attention?

1:20

Paul Sporer: QS w/at least a K per inning?

1:20

Post Hype Prospects: Scott Kingery is having a nice 2nd season. Smoke and mirrors? Will he be a nice long term asset in a dynasty league?

1:21

Paul Sporer: Not smoke and mirrors. AVG running a bit high, but gimme .270 with pop and some speed rest of season. Big fan.

1:21

NL ROY: Victor Robles was supposed to have an elite hit tool. His 65 ks and .233 avg have me concerned. Is he a future star or should we be concerned?

1:23

Paul Sporer: Was it supposed to be elite?? I feel like elite is 70+ grade. At any rate, I understand the worries, but that’s part of the risk of taking a 22-year old rookie. The upside remains real, but so was the risk

1:23

The Littlest Gio: Giolito going to keep Giolitoing against the Yankees today?

1:24

Paul Sporer: There’s certainly no reason to assume he’ll flop. Obviously he’s going to have a bad start at some pt bc that’s just how pitching works, but he’s a must start

1:24

Guest: I have 8 outfielders. Yelich Stanton Pham Soto Verdugo Conforto Mallex and Hicks. I need a first basemen badly. Is Hicks for Votto a bad move?

1:24

Paul Sporer: It’s a buy low for buy low. I’m obviously not psyched about Votto, but I don’t hate this move. Certainly not an overpay

1:25

Speed is killing me: Do you think Segura gets to 20+ SBs, or are the Phils more bloop and a blast?

1:26

Paul Sporer: They just don’t run. 20 is too high to predict

1:26

baseballdude: start clevinger in a 2 start week right off the IL?  @ TEX and @ DET i think.

1:26

Paul Sporer: I think I would, yes

1:27

JoeyBoomBats: If you’re going for it this year, and you’ve got one of the disappointing studs (JoRam, Goldy, etc), what’s your general strategy? Hold and hope for the rebound, or trade for a lower ceiling but performing player?

1:28

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a set strat there. I guess I tend to hold, but it depends on my standings. For Ramirez, he’s at least delivering SBs so there is some real value there.

1:29

Matt: obviously it’s a small sample, but last 14 games for Votto: .397/429/.569

1:29

Paul Sporer: with 8 multi-hit games. First sign of life in his bat in a good while

1:29

Monte: Looking to move either Matt Chapman or Tatis Jr for a SP.  Pos doesn’t matter much as I have Moose to fill in at 3b and Bogaert at SS.  Who would you rather move assuming they both fetch similar returns?

1:30

Paul Sporer: I’d prefer to hold Chap. I think the hype of Tatis will draw more

1:31

Monte: You holding Paddack in a shallow league (10 Team)?  He hasn’t been stellar lately and not sure I can burn a roster spot on him for 20 days while I’m also sitting on Kimbrel.

1:31

Paul Sporer: In fairness, I don’t think you’ll have to wait all 20 right now. I think they’re going to split it and send him down again at the All Star break. I’d hold

1:31

Cito’s Mustache: In a 10-team roto with a limit of 200 pitcher starts, are you starting Hendricks @ LAD and Giolito vs NYY?

1:32

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m inclined to start both

1:36

Slamboni: AL Only roto keeper, is Brandon Lowe (league min) a fair offer for Jose Ramirez?

1:36

Paul Sporer: If the trade partner really values cheap keepers, it’s not terrible, but I’m not sure it gets accepted as a 1-for-1

1:36

Kdog: Molina comes off the DL. I picked up Chirinos to replace him. I keep Chirnos and drop Yaddy right?

1:36

Paul Sporer: I would, yes

1:36

Dave: Kiermaier on a nice little run– doing anything different or garden variety hot streak?

1:37

Paul Sporer: He’s always good for a hot run, but injury usually derails him

1:37

Dave: Where do you think Clevinger slots in your rankings when he comes back?

1:37

Paul Sporer: Must Start, I’m getting him right back in there

1:37

Joe Peppy Tone: Darvish and Archer both showed up on our waiver wire. Would you drop Skaggs for one? Who is your preference? Thanks

1:37

Paul Sporer: I’d take Darvish over Skaggs

1:37

Small Tuna: Urena to 60 Day DL…if Gallen doesn’t come up now should we cut bait in redraft?

1:38

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, I didn’t see Urena was out THAT long. I think that’s why someone asked how long Elieser could stick.

1:38

Tyler: Hey Paul! What are your expectations for Daniel Murphy ROS?

1:39

Paul Sporer: .300, 14-16 HR

1:39

Hey: Drop Carpenter for Scwarber? 8 team OBP

1:39

Paul Sporer: Yes

1:40

Pat’s Bat: Bench (not cut) Jose Ramirez for Brandon Lowe?  I’m okay for SB.

1:40

Paul Sporer: I’m OK benching if you’re trying to get some Lowe homers

1:40

Redbull: K. Seager or C. Moran ROS?

1:40

Paul Sporer: I lean Seager as he should have a PT advantage

1:40

Sicnarf Loopstok: Does Dakota Hudson rise in your June SP rankings?

1:42

Paul Sporer: Ya, he’ll move a bit in July, but this isn’t a skill set surrounding the successful ERA. I know he’s a big time groundballer which mitigates how many Ks you need, but this isn’t locked and loaded as a mixed league starter

1:43

Shallow Bench: Why does everyone in the industry whine about a 7-player bench being small?
ESPN benches are 3.

1:43

Paul Sporer: Do people really whine about it? Or do they just acknowledge the difficulty of managing a 7 person bench with no IL? ESPN leagues are also 10-teamers and have 2 IL so they’re essentially 5 person benches and 5 teams smaller than Main Event leagues w/7 person benches

1:45

Anders: Robles or Bryan reynolds in points?

1:45

Paul Sporer: Still leaning Robles

1:45

Nathan: muncy over moustakas as a target? or do you prefer mous in that lineup?

1:45

Paul Sporer: I prefer Muncy, but they’re VERRRYYY close

1:45

Siri: I finally gave up on Jesse winker in my H2H obp league. Will I regret it?

1:46

Paul Sporer: Winker believer coming into the season, but I understand cutting in 10- and 12-team right now

1:46

Spot Tart: Which side do you want in 12 team roto?  Betts and hendricks or bogaerts and verlander

1:46

Paul Sporer: Think it really depends if you need JV’s Ks more or not.

1:46

JAMES: Ohtani or Cruz ROS?

1:47

Paul Sporer: Cruz by a hair… they’d be ranked riiiight by each other if I re-did positional rankings

1:48

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta bounce! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy (or any type of baseball Qs) there. Have a great weekend!

We hoped you liked reading Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 14th, 2019 by Paul Sporer!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

2
Leave a Reply

2 Comment authors
HappyFunBallAnon Recent comment authors
newest oldest most voted
Anon
Member
Anon

Missed the chat but just wanted to point out RE: Austin Barnes. He’s spent basically the entire season hitting out of the 8 spot, just in front of the pitcher (35 of his 38 starts). He has gotten 3 IBB and probably at least a few “pitch-arounds” out of the 8-hole or his overall wOBA would be even worse. On top of that, he got 2 PA against a position player (John Ryan Murphy throwing 60mph heat) in the opening series of the season and turned that into a BB and a HR further aiding his numbers.

Yes, it’s been ugly for Barnes thus far. . . . .