Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 13th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Good morning! I’m filling in for Eno today and still doing my normal chat tomorrow! This one will be a regular one (about an hour), but then a marathon tomorrow

Nick: With the Cubs trade….do the Cardinals respond? And if so who do they target?

Paul Sporer: I doubt they respond with a blockbuster, tbh

Jay: Should I sell high on Chris Taylor or do you think he’ll be productive in 2nd half? (Projections say he’ll be below league average). I could get Gerritt Cole for him.

Paul Sporer: I’d get Cole for sure

Kevin: Offered Yoan Moncada for Sandy Alcantara and Strasburg in a keeper league….with Moncada not breaking out at AAA should I pass?

Paul Sporer: He’s 22 and every bit an elite prospect still. If you’re building, I’d get him

Josiah: Is it worth continuing to roster CarGo in a 5×5 12 team?

Paul Sporer: There’s probably someone worth getting instead. It has been an entire half now and it just seems he’s playing through something

Big Tuna: SURPRISE SPORER CHAT! Who are your favorite spec saves guys to add in 12+ team leagues before the trade deadline?

Paul Sporer: Rosenthal, Kahnle, Doolittle

In win now mode : What is Bellinger going forward in an OBP league? Need to decide whether or not to move him for assets to win now

Paul Sporer: A solid top 10 first baseman

David: Does Jose Quintana‘s fantasy value change now? How about Eloy Jimenez’s?

Paul Sporer: His potential for wins certainly increases and going to the NL never hurts. It’s a little boost for Q. Not sure it changes Eloy much. Stacked CWS system!

Trip McNealy: 14 team h2h I traded DeGrom, Owings, and Schebler for Altuve and Benintendi.  Thoughts in a vacuum?  Still have Price, Paxton, Nola, and Tanaka for my rotation.

Paul Sporer: Really like your end of it

CubsFan: 11 to roto, I was offered Justin Turner for Robbie Ray. Should I do it? I need Avg & OBP, my pitching is Archer, McCullers, Nelson, A Wood, Taillon, Cobb, Ross Maria.

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Moltar: Belt, Myers or LoMo ROS?

Paul Sporer: Myers for the speed

Josiah: Pham or Peraza ROS?

Paul Sporer: Pham

Matt: Obviously this trade has *some* sort of impact on the Yanks. Do they target Gray? Is the price lower? Does that potential to package Gray and Alonso make them targeting Gray more likely? Such intrigue!

Paul Sporer: I think they’ll do something, but I’m really not sure what or how big

Paul Sporer: I think they’ll get 1B

nick k: Jake Lamb ROS projection please. Do you think he avoids second half drop off?

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t think he’ll fall off unless he gets hurt again. I think he’ll be high 800s OPS with big pop

Ben: Keep one in 12 team keeper.. Mccarthy, Cahill, Tijaun walker?? Thanks Paul

Paul Sporer: Cahill

Dac: Good afternoon Paul

Paul Sporer: Hola!

Sandy Ravage: Which side you like better: 4 years of Kris Bryant or 2 years of Kluber plus rights to Buehler and Kyle Tucker. 14 tm Dynasty

Paul Sporer: KB

Michael: How likely is Ozuna regression?

Paul Sporer: Love Ozuna. He had a wrist injury last year that stunted his 2H. I have him similar to Lamb – high 800s OPS and great pop

Dave: Expectations for a rebound from Miggy in the second half, or are the nagging injuries going to mean this is what he is this year (at least)?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll have a run

Matt: As a Yankee fan, I tried to get in touch with Hahn. I was going to offer him Frazier, Mateo, and two back-end pieces for Quintana. He never answered my call – was my offer in line with what was sent?

Paul Sporer: That seems to be in the same range. Two big prospects headlining the deal.

Big Tuna: Is Ben Zobrist done? I’m having a hard time cutting him in my 12 team OPS league, but I think I have to.

Paul Sporer: I think you have to, too

Rank Us ROS: Rendon, J Turner, Castellonas, K Seager … and how big is the gap?

Paul Sporer: Turner, Rendon *gap* Seager *gap* Casty

Dave: Real baseball question– what do you think the Tigers can get for Verlander?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really think they’re going to trade him in-season. It’ll honestly depend on what they contribute $$-wise

Chin Music: Is Hendricks worth picking up? He’s sitting on the waiver wire in my league.

Paul Sporer: Depends on league type, size

Tom: Quintana’s SP value, how uch does the trade help him?

Paul Sporer: It’s a little boost. He’d been pitching really well of late anyway, but getting to an NL team that will support him def helps

Keith Hernandez: Thanks for chatting Paul!  Would like your opinion on a trade – I’d be giving up Freeman, C. Seager, and Danny Duffy for Kershaw, Jon Gray, and Story.  All players involved would be able to be kept for the next 2 years.  What side do you like better?

Paul Sporer: Totally makes sense for Kershaw’s price, but I’d want the two stud hitters

Slapshot: Without Eno, where will we get our weekly dose of ludes?

Paul Sporer: He left the ludes. I’m lit af.

Tito: Moncada or Devers in a Keeper format OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Moncada

The Texan: I’m rolling with Wilson Ramos at my 10-team catcher spot with Lucroy sitting on waivers.  You down?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK to stay with Ramos

Michael: Where do you think the most likely landing spot for Verlander is?

Paul Sporer: Staying w/the Tigers

Big Tuna: Is there any timetable on Trea? I can’t find a likely return date anywhere.

Paul Sporer: No I haven’t been able to find one, either

SeaQuench: Does Porcello bounce back in 2nd Half?

Paul Sporer: Ya I mean this is in his range of outcomes but on the low end. I think natural regression should get him back closer to 4.00

Elf: Josh Reddick 10-team worthy ROS?

Paul Sporer: Not quite. OF is too deep

MArk: What kind of return can I get for Buxton and Moncada. I’m in win now mode.

Paul Sporer: Probably a lot, but it really depends on your league

Big Tuna: How likely is it that the Royals deal Herrera and Soria? Would Duensing close in that situation?

Paul Sporer: Not very given how they’d played of late. They’d have to come out of the break and flop

John: Any chance Giolito, Lopez or Kopech take Q’s spot this year? And  if so who is your guess?

Paul Sporer: Not Kopech, but possibly one of G or Lopez could come up in a bit

Carl: How confident would you be buying Alex Wood in a FGpts-style dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Rather confidently, tbh. Health is always a concern bc of his record, but I buy the skills

Moltar: Lamb or Sano ROS?

Paul Sporer: Lamb, but they’re close

Tom: Jose Ramirez is drafted at the ________________ of the _________round in drafts in 2018 and 2019?

Paul Sporer: middle, 2nd… no idea about 2019

CubsGotFleeced : Should i pick up Clint Frazier in a non keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size of course

Michael: Is Ariel Miranda worth an add in an 8 team h2h points league?

Paul Sporer: I can’t imagine so

Gaaarth: Alex Bregman still worth holding in shallows?

Paul Sporer: Borderline. I can see situations where someone more intriguing is available, but he’s the kind of guy where I’m trying NOT to cut him

Jose: Do you believe Tyler Glasnow’s results at AAA with the new stretch-only delivery will translate to the majors this season?

Paul Sporer: I’d hadn’t heard about this. Do you have a link?

Matt: $4 T Turner, $4 Altherr, 1.1 (minors draft), 1.3, $20 McCullers for $18 Sale, 2.11 and 3.11. Sale doubles to $36 next year, all others increase by $2. Is my offer fair? Am I right to be upset that the other team is not even mildly interested in this?

Paul Sporer: You offered that for Sale? That’s a really strong offer. Some ppl just don’t dig trading

Chris: Who do you like to get saves in Texas?

Paul Sporer: Kela

Big Tuna: I drafted Cueto as an ace and have been saved by CMart as my #2. Does that 1-2 punch still work or should I be looking to deal Cueto to somebody who thinks he’s still a top 10 arm?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure you’ll get a ton for Cueto right now, so I’d just hold. They’ve basically traded spots as you say where Cueto is more the #2 now

Yonder: Rich Hill gonna beast in 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: He’s been a lot better of late. It’s all gonna come down to whether or not his old ass skin can hold up and not blister

Chin Music: Thoughts on Maybin?

Paul Sporer: Love the speed if he can stay healthy

Dave: My friend offered me Robbie Ray, but he wanted Stanton back. I told him to kick rocks, but what would be a more reasonable offer? Nomar Mazara? Keon Broxton?

Paul Sporer: Big time SPs are expensive! Mazara alone isn’t enough

Zeb: Thoughts on James Paxton going foward in roto leagues? Is he a borderline top 20/25 SP?

Paul Sporer: Really impressed by his last couple, he looks back after some struggles off the DL. He’s easily top 20 with health

Michael: Add Redick, Hicks, Chisenhall or Pham in an 8 team h2h points league?

Paul Sporer: There are probably others more worthy unless yall use super deep rosters

Tito: Do you see a September call-up for Acuna? Who do you have as the better dynasty OF between Robles/Eloy/Acuna?

Paul Sporer: Ehh, maybe. I like Robles most of that group, but lower level prospects aren’t my strongest suit

SeaQuench: Please rank: for ROS & Dynasty purposes…Dinelson Lamet, Luis Castillo, Andrew Moore

Paul Sporer: Castillo, Lamet, Moore

Charles: Was offered Goldschmidt and Godley for Judge. Miggy is current 1st baseman. 10 team redraft

Paul Sporer: I’d take that.

David B: Any worries about Cueto? Time to jump ship?

Paul Sporer: I have some concerns, but I’m not cutting him anywhere

Kyle: What is Thames value the rest of this year? Next?

Paul Sporer: top 12-15 1B.

Porcho Villa: Drop one: Maeda, Manaea, Cahill, Rodon

Paul Sporer: tough without league context, but I’d say Rodon right now. he’s working his way back so it’s been rocky. could see him being a Sept. asset, though. Manaea and Cahill are the def keeps

Matt: He’s got big spores, she’s got big spores. But Paul’s got the biggest spores of them all!

Paul Sporer: ok

The Gasman: In the past 2 starts, Gausman has doubled his splitter usage.  I know the last start wasn’t great, but FIP in last 2 is in the 1s.  He had the same splitter usage at the end of last year when he was dominant.  Thoughts on him turning it around?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d actually heard about him starting to get the feel for his splitter. He’s someone I’ll keep assessing every 2-3 starts

Moltar: I liked the HR Derby this year, but they have to change the format a little, right? Keep the timed format but eliminate the brackets, top four best results go on to the next round, winner of the second round wins. No need for a third round with exhausted hitters.

Paul Sporer: I personally really like how it is right now.

Joe: Thoughts on Aaron Sanchez in 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll get himself back on track and be solid

Michael: Is Alex Avila here to stay?

Paul Sporer: Looks very healthy and he’s just savaging righties so I buy it

Porcho Villa: Do you expect Andrus to maintain the career year production?

Paul Sporer: I think he can stay really good

Matt: Any thoughts on a potential Dahl callup? Will he play? Will he produce?

Paul Sporer: He’s working his way back and he will play when ready

Butch: Do you believe in the tigers strongly underperforming their exit veto or do you think that something could be wrong with how they are measuring it, as Castellanos and Miggy leading the league seems to unlikely for coincidence

Paul Sporer: I think a big part of it is Comerica. It’s a sneaky tough park in several spots

Big Tuna: In a vacuum, which stud should I try hardest to get from a non-contending team in an OPS league: Goldy, Arenado, Harper, Crush, Braun?

Paul Sporer: Goldy, Harper, Arenado — go big!

Porcho Villa: Will Britton revert to his dominant form?

Paul Sporer: If healthy, yes

Keith Hernandez: What type of starter should I be targeting for Wade Davis?  I have an excess of saves and Davis’s keeper eligibility runs out this year for me.

Paul Sporer: A good one! 🙂

Paul Sporer: Those questions are really tough because every market is different. I really have no idea what your leaguemates will yield. But I would be shooting for someone in my first two tiers: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-rankings-update-june…

Paul Sporer: By the way, my SP rankings are getting updated this week. I’ll be working on them the rest of the afternoon after this chat. If they’re not up today, then first thing tomorrow

jack: what could Freddie Freeman net in return in a 10 team OBP league? thanks Paul

Paul Sporer: A stud

Help: If a big name guy who usual performs well isn’t do well this year, Is it okay to drop him in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Totally depends who it is, of course

BP for my Byung Ho: My league gets a little wacky around the deadline since you can only keep four. I’m thinking about trading MadBum and JRam for Stanton, Ozuna, Betances, Ray and Carrasco. Id move Chris Davis, Mancini, Matz and probably another for some closers.

Paul Sporer: Seems like you’re getting an appropriate mint for your keepers

Porcho Villa: Needing a 2B upgrade, I dealt Berrios for Matt Carpenter. Fair?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Rob: Rank these save specs please! Swarzak, Maton, Doolittle, Glover, Boxberger, Kela.

Paul Sporer: Kela, Doolittle, Glover are my faves

Big Tuna: Why do you think Kahnle closes over Swarzak? Just curious. The K numbers?

Paul Sporer: ya I just think Kahnle has been better. K%, BB%, velo

Blue Morpho: Where do you think Marte ranks among outfielders RoS?

Paul Sporer: Top 30? It’s tough to know how a guy will return after such a big layoff, but his speed should help sustain his value

BP for my Byung Ho: Is there a SV+HLD RP rest of season ranking on the horizon over there?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I could maybe whip something together

Sam: Any hope of Aledmys Diaz returning to relevance this season?

Paul Sporer: Not unless he gets going at AAA to earn the call up

Michael: Carascco/Schoop or Alex Wood/Ozuna in H2H points?

Paul Sporer: Fair deal!

TomTerminatorHenke: I’ve punted C position all year. 1) Good idea? 2) Now that Lucroy has been dropped, pick him up for a Bradley Zimmer or Jordan Montgomery?

Paul Sporer: Ya C has been a nightmare so I imagine it’s working well for you and now you can take a shot on Lucroy. Why not just cut whoever you have at C already instead of Z or J Mo?

SeaQuench: In NYC, Sports Radio WFAN is trying to replace Mike Francesa with NJ Governor Chris Christie… Out of the frying pan into a BIGGER frying pan. Any opinion?

Paul Sporer: I’d heard he’s been filling, but I don’t listen nor do I plan to

Butch: What are the chances Peacock keeps rotation spot? Wondering if I should try and trade him.

Paul Sporer: I think he gets to keep the spot as long as he keeps performing, but it’s not a bad sell-high candidate

Edwin: does Neris remain the closer in Philly for ROS?  do we care in 12-teamers?

Paul Sporer: yes and yes

Blue Morpho: Tanner Roark worth holding in a 12-team?

Paul Sporer: Borderline for sure, I’d imagine most 12 tm waivers have someone else I’d gamble on

Jeff Samardzija: Can I keep my rate stats up and lower my era over the 2nd half and become a #1 starter?

Paul Sporer: Not a #1, no. But he has a 3.80 ERA in his non-Coors starts. I think he’s a 3.50-4.00 guy with great Ks which is very valuable in this scoring environment

Porcho Villa: What to do with Cody Allen? Worth holding given that Miller has taken over the job / is better?

Paul Sporer: think you gotta hold him. they’re kinda sharing, no? still think they prefer to have Miller whenever they want as opposed to the automatic closer

Archie: Dynasty RF, Mazara or D. Santana.

Paul Sporer: Really like both, but I think Domingo has to get the edge with his speed

Naquin ‘Merica Great Again: Thanks for the chat, Paul!  Better all-around fantasy OF ROS…D.Santana, Inciarte or Souza?

Paul Sporer: Domingo goes back-to-back!

dave in slc: is peacock for gardner a fair deal. peacock has been great and gardner feels like he has played a bit over his head. thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I’d prefer Peacock for sure

Tom: Mark Reynolds. Is the dream over?

Paul Sporer: Sputtering over his last 30, but he was great before that. Home-only guy. 1B so deep that he’s not someone you MUUUST keep in mixers

Butch: Do you think the tigers should try to engage the Astros in a Fulmer deal to potentially restock the farm and expedite their rebuild?

Paul Sporer: Not unless they just get a ridiculous over the top deal. I just don’t see how trading a young, established arm helps a rebuild effort, though

TRADE SZN: Paul, I’m a huge Cubs fan and I’ve gone all in on Quintana. Traded Duffy and Andrew Miller for him. Am I just caught up in the high that is the trade deadline?

Paul Sporer: A little caught up, ya, but I think it’s ok

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: It’s now the 2nd half, is it okay now to start overpaying in trades to get players to help other categories? I’m strong in SP but need AVG and SB help so I’m thinking of trading my top tier SP for a Dee Gordon type.

Paul Sporer: Ya, I mean it’s not even overpaying if it’s the categories you need. I get what you’re saying though, deals that in vacuum might look bad are the right move in context of your standings

John: Worth dropping bedrosian or archie bradley in a 12 team league for a starter such as cahill, gausman, or luis castillo?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d want the SPs. I’m pretty hyped on Castillo

JP: Drop D. Peralta for any of these guys? Gardner, Hicks, C. Davis, Puig (H2H 12 team).

Paul Sporer: Nah

Michael: Do the Rays have the most young pitching talent?

Paul Sporer: Like in the majors right now or including their system? Not sure they have the most either way, no

Sap: Marwin Gonzalez or Trevor Story for ROS?

Paul Sporer: Marwin!

10th place, need help: I know trade questions aren’t the most popular but its “go-time” in the fantasy season. Is giving up Alex Wood & Jose Bautista for Joey Votto a 6×6 OBP & SLG league too much?  Bautista looks like hes back to his old self since May 1, but Votto is a top 5 hitter in our format. The rest of my staff is Ray, Cahill, Taillon, Maeda, Lynn, and Hoffman

Paul Sporer: Trade Qs are fine, I just don’t like the “who should I get for ___?” ones bc they are literally impossible to answer. As for your deal, I dig it. Votto is a monster in that format

Dat Dude: Lynn or E-Rod ROS? 5×5 12 team roto

Paul Sporer: Rodriguez on his way back, I’d take a shot on him in the shallower league

Bay Jruce: Hey Paul glad if someone was filling in for Eno that its you. I have Jay Bruce and alot of outfield depth so I want to move him for some SP help. So far I’ve tried for Cole, Stroman and Darvish and came up with nothing. Is my valuation of his season way off? No one seems to care about Bruce.

Paul Sporer: Thanks! Note for those just coming in: I will be chatting again tomorrow in my normal slot and it’ll be more of a marathon session. I do think you’re overrating Bruce a good bit. OF just too deep and pitching is too rare.

Porcho Villa: ENO FACT: ludes are interludes not quaaludes

Paul Sporer: Then who’s ludes did I take? :sees Cistulli frantically digging through the desks in the office looking for something:

Sap: Kyle Seager or Marwin Gonzalez ROS?

Paul Sporer: Seags

Jason: Who’s got the better ROS, Puig or Arrieta?

Paul Sporer: Arrieta just bc pitching is so tough to come by

Alex: cake or pie?

Paul Sporer: Probably pie

Fritz: AL only Salazar or Bauer the rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: Salazar

Altuve: Altuve for Carrasco, Tehran, and Kyle Seager?

Paul Sporer: Seems fair

Porcho Villa: Think Honeywell gets the call this season? If so, is he 12-team roster worthy?

Paul Sporer: I’d take a shot on Honeywell in all formats if/when he gets the call just bc the upside is so high

Jordan: Thanks for your work Paul. I’ve been enjoying your articles. If I were to choose one, should I keep Schebler or Peralta for the 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: Thanks! I prefer Peralta, but it’s not a huge split

WinTwins: Did Minnesota really have any chance at landing Quintana?

Paul Sporer: Were they rumored to be in the mix?

Jose: Hi Paul, take a look: https://calltothepen.com/2017/06/27/pittsburgh-pirates-tyler-glasnow-p…

Paul Sporer: ty!

Amy: Was Faria an underrated prospect or is this just SSS?

Paul Sporer: It’s def SSS to say he’s *this* good, but he might’ve been a little underrated. I think he’s a solid mid-rotation arm

Jose: Here’s another one on Glasnow: http://m.pirates.mlb.com/news/article/240988990/pirates-tyler-glasnow-…

Phil: Is Corey Dickerson’s 1st half sustainable, or is now the time to sell high?

Paul Sporer: I do think he will sustain at a pretty high level. Not sure you can sell super high anyway, so I’d ride it out

Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta get going. Tomorrow I’ll be back chatting and it’ll be more of a marathon session!

Paul Sporer: Fake Eno out!