Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 2nd, 2019

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! I’m back after a week off, let’s talk some baseball!!!

Zipp: I hate catchers, that is all

Paul Sporer: But Will Smith is an absolute monster!

Don Juan: What do you think the upside for Aaron Sanchez is?

Paul Sporer: I mean it’s hard not to be excited about what the Astros could do for him given their recent successes. It might not click until next year, but I’m willing to bet on spec in most leagues that he can be a low-4.00s guy with solid win probability

Rickey H.: A Duvall in Nl

Paul Sporer: Correct

Glenn Spankman: With Voit on the IL, is Urshela someone to target?

Don Juan: Thoughts on Gio Urshela?  Seems underowned to me.

Paul Sporer: Ya I mean he’s still hitting .311, scoring runs, and even driving some in (full season paces of 85 and 91, specifically). He should probably be on more rosters. I know I have him on one where I just keep him on the bench bc he’s not quite good enough to crack the lineup, but too good to cut

Guest: Hey Paul, beautiful day here in Michigan. What do you think Nick Anderson’s chances are of grabbing at least a share of the closer’s job in TB this year or next.

Paul Sporer: Always possible with TB. If you pitch, you can get saves for them. I’m sorta surprised that Charlie Morton doesn’t randomly have 2 saves lol

Philip Christy: Is Vince Velasquez for real yet?

Paul Sporer: He is who he is… every time I buy in on him as something more, he burns me. I haven’t seen enough to change my outlook

Dave: You starting Gingergaard tonight in 12-teamers?

Paul Sporer: I’m down to do it!

Chuck: Hey Paul, I have a Veto question for you. (14 tm, H2H, 12 Keepers) Severino for Morton and Muncy was vetoed. Is this ridicules? Or am I overreacting? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Are there any values tied to it? It’s a bad trade, but I’m anti-veto unless you can prove collusion in which case, boot them and move on

CT: Hey Paul, thanks as always. Quick non-pitching question: Puig or Ozuna for the upcoming week? Puig, facing 6 RHP and a wRC+ in the 70s since the break, while Ozuna has been tearing up his rehab and looks to pick up where he left off.

Paul Sporer: I still lean Puig bc of the SBs. (though make sure you’re aware of how his suspension appeal is playing out)

michk54: Is there a change that given a full time job Reyes holds more value than Puig in an AL only rest of season?

Paul Sporer: I’d lean against it again bc of Puig’s SB prowess

Todd: Hello. I’m leading most hitting categories but need help with pitching ratios and QS. Currently in first. Do I pull the trigger on this trade? Segura(or Anderson) and Sale for my Bogaerts?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, getting an ace and a viable replacement for Bogy really works

Don Juan: Reynoaldo Lopez ROS is…

Paul Sporer: playable… he might be my new Velasquez where I get the rug pulled out from under me whenever he starts going well, but I’m buying in, especially with that division (though he unfortunately misses the upcoming DET series)

Dave: Follow-up to your answer on Urshela– what do you perference for those bench spots at this time of year?  Guys who could credibly fill in (e.g. Urshela), or possible impact call-ups (e.g., Adell)

Paul Sporer: Really depends on my team construction. I have some wobbly guys that Urshela could slide in for so I’m keeping him, but when I have a stronger offense, I’m more inclined to take those kinds of gambles

Jose Jose Jose!: Paul!!! Drop eloy for Cease, Gingergaard, or the like in a 10 team H2H? Keep rotating Conforto, Eloy, Y Alvarez between two spots

Paul Sporer: Maaaaaayyyybbbeee for Gingergaard (aka Dustin May for those unaware)

Jonesing for Andruw: Thoughts on Sano for next year?  He has come back strong this year after his injury.  It seems he is approaching “Keeper Status” (5 keepers only in my 12 team roto league) but not sure what the peripherals are saying and projecting to next year.  Thanks for the chat!

Paul Sporer: I’ve always been a bit tepid on Sano compared to the general community. His power is undisputed, but I’m not sure he’s a top 60 guy given his AVG issues that don’t seem to be going anywhere

Salty: How would you rank the following: Stroman, Disco Tony and the Shark?

Paul Sporer: August SP ranks out Monday btw, but I think I’m ranking in the order you listed (though I will be looking into upcoming schedules more aggressively for this month’s ranks so that could shift some things.) The 3 will be relatively close whatever the order is

Jose Jose Jose!: Also, I flipped Pete Alonso for J Ram 5 weeks ago. No one here would comment on my buy low, but what do you think of it now?

Paul Sporer: It obviously panned out brilliantly, well done! It was hard to have confidence in Jose Ramirez.  You sold high on a rookie and bought an established star vet

Ed: Need a replacement for Voit. Because of position flexibility, could use a 1B, 3B, or SS in the spot. Most intruiging options on the waiver wire are DeJong, Bichette, Pujols, VanMeter, Urshela, and Sano. Anyone stick out at you from that group? 12-team points league, currently in 1st trying to hold on.

Paul Sporer: I’m smitten with VanMeter, especially after the Puig & Gennett deals so I’m definitely open to going for him. I also like Bichette and he’s off to a fast start. I’d put DeJong, VanMeter, and Bichette together and pick your favorite as they’re all close

Zack: Hey Paul, do you think Tauchman’s hot July has any sustainable value moving forward? Seems LF is wide open with Gardner and Stanton on the shelf.

Paul Sporer: He’s an Alex Chamberlain favorite and I can understand the interest. There’s some viability for deeper leagues

baseballdude: which currently ILed RP/SP will make the most impact ROS…glasnow, peacock, or stripling?

Paul Sporer: I’d rank Strip/Peacock well ahead of Glasnow as his outlook just doesn’t look good right now

Don Juan: Will Julio Urias transition to starting?

Paul Sporer: Probably not this year

Dan: Hey Paul! I have a roster crunch coming with Ozuna coming off the IL. I need to drop one of Andrus, Hunter Dozier, Franmil. Trade deadline passed so I can’t trade anyone.

Paul Sporer: I’d lean Andrus unless you need his SBs

baseballdude: danny santana a good bat to ride out ROS at 2b (or 3b, or SS, or 1b, or OF)?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s been fantastic and the flexibility only makes him more appealing

Brian: Are you buying Ketel Marte’s breakout or are you looking to sell high?  H2h points dynasty league where I already have Altuve at 2b so I’m playing Marte at OF.

Paul Sporer: I buy what he’s done this year, it’s well-supported by the metrics. As far as how it will be next year, I’d obviously tab this as a career year and regress him down from there, but I don’t think this is a fluke. While they aren’t a 1:1, I feel like I’ll be into Marte’s breakout the way I was with Muncy coming into this year

Never trust LA: How excited are you about Dustin May’s debut?

Paul Sporer: Pretty excited, tbh!!

baseballdude: mckay worth holding ROS or will we continue to see promotion/demotion and no more than 5 inning outings?

Paul Sporer: I’m still holding. There’s nice strikeout upside and they may have to stretch him out a bit to win key games down the stretch

baseballdude: pollock startable ROS in a 3 OF, 1 UTIL point league?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think so

Will Graham: How many starts does Dustin May get the rest of the season? Or does he drift over into the bullpen?

Paul Sporer: Impossible to say with LA, I wish I had a better answer, but I can’t pretend to know

michk54: What are your thoughts on Roark in Oakland?

Paul Sporer: Solid move by OAK and the park definitely helps. Viable in most formats… at least a streamer in 10-teamers and then rosterable in 12 and beyond

Scott TINSTAAPP: If season ended today, who are you taking as number 1 pitcher in redraft?

Paul Sporer: I think I’d take Cole if he re-signs with Houston

Sean: 6×6 with SLG and OBP instead of AVG.  McCann, D’Arnaud or Will Smith at C rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: I’d choose between d’Arnaud and Smith. I’m usually cautious with rookie Cs but Smith might be an anomaly. He’s been amazing so far. I still think I’d lean TdA.

Quadrangular: Paul, hoping you can help put my chances into perspective here. For a 13 team roto league, I currently need to makeup +12 runs, +2 HRs, +3 steals, +.003 OBP, +40Ks, +2 Wins, -.030 ERA, and -.01 WHIP in order to win. Are these reasonable margins to cover over the final stretch or is it utterly unrealistic?

Paul Sporer: The Ks and Rs are definitely the toughest but all the others are super possible. The Rs are definitely more viable than Ks

Dave in London: Will the switch to the AL hurt Grienke’s fantasy value, or should we expect his continued excellence this season?

Paul Sporer: Nah, not really. Marginal gains and drops based on park and league and all that, but he’s still a stud

Dave: Who goes higher in 2020 drafts– Julio Urias or Dustin May?

Paul Sporer: Really depends how they finish, tbh

Kevin: You like Bauer’s #s to rebound going to CIN? Still buying in dynasty leagues?

Paul Sporer: I like the move to the NL for some extra Ks. I am still buying in dynasty

Kevin: Is Yamamoto ever a top-30 SP?

Paul Sporer: Very unlikely

Benny: Will Nate Lowe be back soon?  Worth holding in a 12-team mixed?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably pass in 12-team as they seem more set with Choi/Aguilar as a 1B platoon. I like Lowe, but they aren’t at all committed to him

Kevin: What do the Dodgers do with Seager/Turner/2B with Lux knocking on the door?

Paul Sporer: I imagine it’ll be addressed in the offseason somehow, though they might just keep all the depth. These things tend to play themselves out via injury and the two vets you named are no strangers to the IL

Tim: Adell for Hiura in a dynasty roto league?

Paul Sporer: Perfectly fair

Matt: Redraft – you dropping Renfroe for Canha?

Paul Sporer: Maybe in an OBP league, otherwise probably not. Canha has been a really nice surprise, but as far as fantasy viability, Renfroe’s power (and now locked-in PT with Reyes gone) does more IMO

Kevin: Too risky owning Castillo, Gray and now Bauer? That’s a lot of stock in one rotation.

Paul Sporer: Nah, I don’t worry about things like that. Good pitchers are good pitchers and all three are solid all-formats options

Bo: Duvall or Riley ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m a low-key Duvall stan and it’s not just bc he’s out of his mind in 26 PA so far. In the end, they’ll likely be close in production (low AVG/high power output), but volume seems to be favoring Duvall right now

Matt: Laureano droppable in redraft? Given the option, you dropping him or Woodruff? Got the IL bug.

Paul Sporer: Love Lowe, but that 34% K rate was going to get him eventually (in terms of cutting into his AVG) so I’d say the .276 was the shaky part of his profile. I buy the big pop and slight SB contributions, but in the end he’s the cut here bc his profile is replaceable while any chance at impact pitching should be held onto

Kevin: Injury aside, was Brandon Lowe a bit of a flash in the pan early on? Does the contact profile hurt his potential?

Paul Sporer: LOL I conflated the Matt and Kevin questions… I’m dumb.

Paul Sporer: Sorry about that, Matt. I love Laureano and his profile isn’t as replaceable as Lowe’s, but I’d still lean toward cutting him and holding Woodruff given the dearth of pitching

ThickTanPretzel: Is the era of the opener and heavy bullpen use going to kill the Quality Start league? In mine this year, it feels like the numbers on the table have never been lower. Can you think of any alternatives for those of us who don’t want to go back to Wins? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Not sure there is a great solution if you’re keeping Ws off the table. The compromise would seem to be adding back Ws to the QS and using both

Barry: Jorge Mateo coming up any time soon?

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately not without injury as they seem committed to Profar so there just isn’t a spot for him

No veto: Hi, Paul. I get the no veto tack…but give me your opinion on this one…Judge and Willie Calhoun for Trout and Greinke. (Judge eligible for one more year as a keeper).

Paul Sporer: Again, it’s rough, but you can’t veto trades just bc you don’t like them or wouldn’t do them. Vetoes should only be used for collusion otherwise it’s just sour grapes and impressing your player values on others.

michk54: Paul, do you think Travis Demeritte is worth a pick up in an AL only? If so, what position do you think he will occupy?

Paul Sporer: I do, yes. He’s a nice power bat who fits today’s mold of high Ks and high power. He seems like a good fit to just take on the bulk of Castellanos’ void in playing time

I Used To Be Mel Clarke: Hi Paul–I’ve got a decision to make in my 16 team, keep forever, no cost league. I can only keep 3 from the group of Harper, Turner, Devers, and Moncada. Which would you choose?

Paul Sporer: Tough to cut Moncada, but he’s my choice here. Gimme the first 3 listed

Moose Tacos: Did you see Danny Salazar throwing 86-88 mph trash last night? Is the lesson here “never injure your shoulder”?

Paul Sporer: I did, it was tough. It’s definitely a good example of why we’re so afraid of shoulder injuries

Off the Handle: Keep-forever league, no cost 5×5 – if you could only keep 1 of Jo Adell and Luis Robert, who do you choose?

Paul Sporer: Adell. He’s a legitimate #1 overall prospect in baseball candidate

Skeeter: F. Reyes, Hicks, or Pollock for last OF spot in OPS redraft?

Paul Sporer: I’d go with the Franimal

HappyFunBall: VanMeter or Edman ROS? Keeper?

Paul Sporer: JVM. Edman has been pretty weak since becoming a full-time starter (.648 OPS since June 26th)

Chris: Which of these propects do you expect to make the opening day rosters next year: Whitley, Luzardo, Manning, Mize, Pearson, Gore…

Paul Sporer: Maaaaaaaaaaybe Luzardo, otherwise none of em

MikeZ: Will Kyle Tucker get called up before September? Will he play?

Paul Sporer: Unless they just go away from Reddick or have an injury, I’m not sure where plays. Tucker feels like a Sept. call up at this point (barring injury in the OF, of course)

Don Juan: This is the best chat of the week, anywhere

Paul Sporer: Thanks!!!

Nolan: Will Jose Ramirez finish the season as a top 50 player?

Paul Sporer: Actually has a pretty good chance. Those SBs were keeping him afloat and now he’s finally hitting. He’s 65th on Razzball’s Player Rater – https://razzball.com/playerrater/

Nate: Do you think Jose Leclerc will hold down the closer role when Shawn Kelley comes back?

Paul Sporer: They seem committed to getting him back into the role, so of course he immediately blows a game once he gets a chance (July 28th).

Chief: I’m so excited to play some halo with the squad tonight?  You ever play?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t ever played Halo. I’m almost exclusively a sports-gamer player and even then, it’s primarily MLB The Show

Reed: Thanks for the chat. 14 team 10×10, after the deadline I have Lindor, Santana, Reyes and Puig all on CLE. Problem?

Paul Sporer: Nope. I mean it’d suck if they went on a huge cold streak offensively, but I don’t worry about team stacking

Nick: Will Smith through 48 PAs is tied with Oscar Mercado and Victor Robles in WAR.  Could he be, say, a top 3 catcher next year?

Paul Sporer: Whoa, let’s be careful here. It’s 48 PA! He’s a very interesting backstop, but I’m not ready to tab him top 3 off this tiny sample

Hi There: sell high on morton or enjoy the likely low 3 era ros?

Paul Sporer: If you really help your team by selling, then by all means, but I wouldn’t sell JUST to sell

Guest: I dropped Segura for Bichette. Am I nuts?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine it’s a shallower league, so no it’s not *nuts*, but it might not really pan out as anything more than a neutral move

Seamus Catuli: Does MLB change the ball back next year and then we are all scrambling because no one has the power we thought they did?

Paul Sporer: I wish they’d tell me. Impossible to know for sure

Dennis Quaid from The Rookie: In on Trent Grisham?

Paul Sporer: He was brilliant in the minors, but I’m not sure where the regular playing time comes from unless he really starts cutting into LoCain’s time. Deeeeep mixers or NL only right now

Rocco: Does Aguilar become again the 2018 version w/ TB?

Paul Sporer: He kinda has been over the last 54 PA (.993 OPS, 3 HR), but that’s not a huge sample. I think he’ll be solid (.800s OPS with pop), but I wouldn’t *expect* 2018

Dave: I’m thinking of offering either Kiermaier or Buxton in trade to acquire a decent SP. Who would you favor keeping (no retention league) or is it flip a coin?

Paul Sporer: I think Buxton would draw more in the market so I’d lean toward selling him

gristlewhistle: Are Odorizzi’s struggles recently just a natural regression, or do you think his early success was a mirage?

Paul Sporer: Mostly just natural regression, IMO. As long as they continue to focus on using him only 2 times through, I think he’ll remain mixed league viable the rest of the way (mid-to-high 3.00s ERA, good W probability, and strong Ks)

n/a: Hi, Paul. One NA spot on our rosters, can keep for next year. Lux or Adell?

Paul Sporer: Adell

narvain: I’m in an 8 man league.  am i a super scrub or just regular scrub?

Paul Sporer: Not a scrub at all. The idea that a deeper league is inherently better is stupid. It’s all fantasy baseball and each league structure has its own challenges. A superstar-laden league can be really tough to do valuations in bc you see so much talent on the wire. I used to be a league-shaming douche and act like anything less than a 25-team AL Central only league using only players that have an “S” in their name was automatically better than a standard 10-teamer, but I finally realized how dumb that was. Play what you play and enjoy it! I’d do a 6 team league if I only had 5 friends that played.

Gavelin the Javelin: Thanks Paul—love the chats.

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome! I really appreciate y’all coming out.

Paul Sporer: I do have to get going, but hopefully y’all enjoyed going a bit longer. We’re in the stretch run with just two months left so it’s no time to slack off. I’ll have SP ranks out Monday! I’ll be gone next Friday so I’ll try to move my chat to Thursday as I don’t want to miss any down the stretch for y’all!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!