Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 26th, 2020

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Welcome to the chat, let’s talk some baseball!

Gio: Randy Dobnak – sell high or ride things out?

Paul Sporer: I’m riding it out as I doubt anyone is really going to give you a mint for him. Most probably think he’s going to collapse. There will be some regression, but I don’t see collapse

Scott: How worried should I be about a staff with Scherzer, Carrasco and Montas?

Paul Sporer: A bit bc it seems Montas’ back is bothering him. Two duds after being scratched screams that he’s not right and might require a 10-day. The tough part though is that there’s nothing particularly actionable w/these three. Benching Max & Carrasco isn’t possible IMO and without any real news on Montas, I’m keeping him in under the assumption that he’s getting better and they trust he’s healthy enough to keep pitching

Bart Simpson: Time for me to drop Stripling in 12 tm mixed roto. Options are Brett Anderson, L. Weaver, Dakota Hudson, Gonsolin and Pineda. What order should I prioritize? Thanks Paul!

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely OK with it as his fastball just isn’t where it needs to be for him to be successful. He’s a streamer in 12s right now until we see him string a few together (of course by then, the season is over, lol). Prioritize matchups w/the available arms as none of them are set & forget types

Guest: Concern level on Turner’s lack of steals?  Seems like the speed may not be there this year, but could he get it back into gear next season?

Paul Sporer: Certainly some as he was drafted to be a major part of your speed. He has run five times, just been caught three, so at least he hasn’t just stopped running. Maybe look for some supplemental SBs on the wire

Lowe Quiet Lowe: 10t H2H, Ohtani droppable to get Judge off IL? Huge Ohtani fan but other options are guys playing well while I’m trying to hold season together.

Paul Sporer: In a 10-teamer, yep

Enrico Palazzo: Better 2-3 year keeper in 5×5:  Carter Kieboom or Ian Happ?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Happ guy. On the whole, they probably aren’t allll that far apart, so I’ll lean personal preference of Happ

D: Hola. You moving on from Paddack or holding? (W,L,K,ERA,SV, no bench spots so I have to play him everyday)

Paul Sporer: Still too good to cut, even in the short season. Two 6 ER outings are doing the heavy lifting on that ERA, otherwise he’s been great in the other 5

rusty shackleford: have to at least hold stripling for his start vs texas, right?

Paul Sporer: I did, but like I said in the other Q about him, I see him as a streamer in 10s and 12s so it’s a personal preference kind of deal with him

Leslie Knope: What the heck happened to Josh Bell? That dude is unusable this year.

Paul Sporer: Man I don’t think even his biggest non-believers saw THIS coming. He’s been ROUGHHHHH. Ks way up, BBs non-existent, and he’s hitting it on the ground a bunch. In a standard 6-month, I’d still be holding and giving him some time, but he’s going to be in my 40%/60% article this week as the 1B cut

Paul Sporer: (Btw, there was no 40/60 piece last week as I had to go to my mom’s and take care of some things as she’s selling her house and we’re trying to get her all situated)

Guest: Kyle Lewis keeps chugging along.  Do you think he’s made real improvements, or is this still just small sample size?

Paul Sporer: Well he’s just a good player. It feels out of nowhere because his prospect time was hampered by injuries so unless you really study prospects, he was a bit under the radar. Had he stayed healthy, he’d have been heralded and this would feel less surprising

Matt: Who says no Giants or Indians In a Plesac for Yaz trade?

Paul Sporer: I’d hope the Indians. I love Yaz, but a 25-year old breakout arm (even if he’s a bit of a clown) should bring more than a 30-year old corner OF

LadyLuck: Thoughts on Our Lady of Lourdes Gurriel, Jr ros?

Paul Sporer: He’s rollin, I’m hoping this is the start of a great finish. I was huge on him coming into the season so I’ve been monitoring him closely

Matt: Feel sad I traded away Mookie today in a 12 team $400 Ottoneu points league 40 man roster. I wasn’t competing this year.

Paul Sporer: Aw man, I hope you got a mint for him at least

Matt: Sent $61 mookie for $19 Torres and $43 Bergman did I get enough for next year

Paul Sporer: I’m good with that deal

devin: What are your thoughts on Hader? do you think he will be traded and if so what teams would you think would be interested?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he’ll be dealt. Milwaukee is still very much in it

Guest: Do you think Rosenthal ends up getting traded?  % chance he is still closer if he does?

Paul Sporer: He’s looking like the Rosy of old so they should absolutely be offering him up. 65-70% chance he’s dealt

Greg: You buying into Cronenworth, or just a hot streak?

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/rake-cronenworths-star-turn/

Helium Man: is Bart a top 5 C in most formats? A Top 2? Top 1?!

Paul Sporer: LOL, no

Guest: Literally why would a team like Pittsburgh ever give one more at bat to a retread like Dyson, don’t they have even one guy they would like to take a look at?

Paul Sporer: I was actually saying the same thing on stream last night. I just don’t get it. Wouldn’t it be better for even like some 27-28 year old AAA OF in hopes they can find the next Yaz or something? ANYTHING has to be better?!?!

Larry: What’s your outlook for Dylan Carlson long term?

Paul Sporer: Star level player. I’m a huge fan and think he’ll be an impact bat for a good while with plenty of fantasy goodness, too

Trustin Tristian?: So…McKenzine is in the rotation rest of season now, I guess?!  (Unless he has a clunker)

Paul Sporer: Wait, did something happen w/Clev & Plesac?

Paul Sporer: Oh snap, they told Plesac he’s merked, wow

Paul Sporer: Welllll in that case, I’m in on McKenzie. He’s actually the biggest prospect of the bunch recently so I like their chances of cultivating him into an all-formats option

Gio: Are you dropping Mize after these first 2 starts?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league & what’s available (as everything does)

jeff: Are you out on McCutchen? He’s been pretty disappointing

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s been rough and I’m ready to move in all formats except maybe NL only as I doubt there’s anything that much better anyway

Bart Simpson: Looks like Hampson has faltered after that hot stretch. Safe to move on? (he did HR last night…hooking me back in)

Paul Sporer: Ya he kinda is what he is… again, safe to cut in 10s, 12s, and maybe even some 15s (unless they have a home stretch incoming)

sean: will you be posting an updated SP ranking for ROS?

Paul Sporer: Yes, this week

Chris: Paul I’m the leading point scorer in my league by almost 200 points and I’m 1 and 3. There is no playoffs, how do I stay engaged?

Paul Sporer: Wait there’s no playoffs? Y’all are going EPL style? I mean, if you’re scoring that many more pts there’s probably not a ton to do, so just keep your lineup full and see if you can get hot. Get back to .500 and then go from there

Sven: Sell/Hold Santander, Urias Clevinger? Thanks Paul, love your work.

Paul Sporer: None of them are inherent sells, but it depends on your needs. I could see Santander actually drawing some market interest despite being relatively out of nowhere. Clevdog is back but his price might be a little muted until he gets another start or two under his belt and Urias should def draw interest. So if you have certain needs, any of the three could be sold, but I’m not racing to get rid of any of them

Smokin’ Lowed: Why do the Padres hate Mackenzie Gore? Is the seemingly delayed call up any cause for concern? Thanks as always!

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure they hate, they’re just deeming him not ready. Just bc we as the fantasy community have him as ready based on nothing other than our desire to see him, doesn’t mean he’s good to go

Jerry: How would you rank the following ROS: Sixto, Mize, McKenzie, I Anderson?

Paul Sporer: McKenzie/Sixto/Mize/Anderson

Dave: Hold Gausman through his next two starts (LAD, @COL) or pick-up Gonsolin for a (maybe) start at TEX this weekend?

Paul Sporer: Do you have to cut Gaus if you don’t use him? I’d obv rather not use him for either start, but it’s hard to flat cut him given how well he’s pitched, especially for a maybe start from Gonsolin

KB: Will Ketel Marte get his power stroke back or was last season a fluke?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s better than this year, but not 100% of last year so somewhat yes to both questions

Larry: I dealt Arenado to get Bregman in dynasty. Good or bad?

Paul Sporer: It’s fine. There’s not a ton of difference. You got younger. I prefer Arenado, but it’s hardly a bad move

Dave: Carlson’s underlying metrics seem to be outpacing his (poor) results thus far… is he a pick-up for a bench spot, or more of a watch list guy?

Paul Sporer: Oh ya I’m not sweating his rough start statistically at all. He’s already starting to come out of it with a little 3-game hit streak and I’m confident he’ll have a heater coming soon

Guest: Which place are you in your expert leagues (Main, TGFBI, etc.)?

Paul Sporer: Main-1st, Rotowire OC-3rd, TGFBI-9th, RazzSlam-2nd, LABR w/Justin-8th, Tout-11th

Dave: Underperforming 1st rounders– Yeli v. Belli ROS, who you got?

Paul Sporer: Belly’s already coming out of it so it kinda feels like cheating to take him. I expect both to be strong ROS

Jim: I moved on from Mondesi in a points dynasty league. Should I be regretting it?

Paul Sporer: No, he’s bad at baseball. His value is confined to Roto bc of SBs

Trustin Tristian?: Yeah, they self-dunked on Plesac!  The players must really be pissed.

Paul Sporer: Yeah they are HEATED. I know some threatened to walk out if he comes back. As Phillip DeFranco says, don’t be stupid, stupid

Alex: Would you chalk up Carlos Santana and Schwarbs success last year largely to the juiced ball? They arent helping as much as hoped this year! (OPS league)

Paul Sporer: Nah, I don’t think that’s the case. I’m sure it helped, but it didn’t MAKE them. Plus, are we sure it’s not still there? There have def been some rabbit ball homers this year, too. Santana was a out of nowhere breakout at 34, had to expect him to come back some. Schwarber isn’t that far off ’19’s pace. Bottom line is the short season will likely run out before they can fully turn it around, but they’d be holds for me in a standard 6-month as they are still doing fine (espec. Schwarber)

Guest: Bader a keeper in a deep dynasty league? Bat has perked up lately.

Paul Sporer: Too soon to say. I’m looking into his early success in an upcoming piece, though (I haven’t done the research yet so I can’t give you my answer, but he’s on my whiteboard of topics)

KAREN-Chak: Is Karinchak the best relief pitcher in baseball right now? His numbers are amazing and his stat cast page shows he is in the 100th percentile in multiple categories. If/When Hand gets traded and I crazy to think he is right up there with Josh Hader?

Paul Sporer: He’s one of them, but trying to name one definitive best RP is tough given how nasty so many are. I totally buy into him, though, and think he’s going to be a monster closer very soon (2021)

Garrison: Hi Paul,

Paul Sporer: Hi!

Olivier: what about Brandon Belt, drop Hicks or Clint Frazier for him?

Paul Sporer: Frazier, espec. w/Judge back

Guest: Hi Paul. Would you hold Plesac in a 12-team mixed redraft league?  Cleveland gets an extra year of control if they keep him down another 8 days, which seems likely. Or they could trade him, which also seems fairly likely.

Paul Sporer: If you have a viable option you want to pick up and he’s the only cut, I understand moving on, but otherwise hang on as long as you can. Don’t TRY to cut, make it a last resort

Willy Adames: The Rays had me hitting cleanup! I’m a top ___ SS ros.

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Adames fan, but it’s an insanely deep position. I can go top 12-15.

Bundy: As an O’s fan, what happens when the Angels get a really great haul for Bundy after we only got some mid-level filler?

Paul Sporer: You cry?

Paul Sporer: It’s like that sometimes, unfortunately, but the O’s have a regime that can be on the winning end of something like that now. Things are slowly turning around for them, but ya the Bundy success is a bummer given the seemingly long trend of SPs leaving Baltimore to have a lot more success

Horace Clarke: Any hope for Votto? Personal favorite, my patience and loyalty is killing me.

Paul Sporer: Feel that across the board, one of my absolute faves, but his fantasy viability is really limited to super deep mixers and NL only

t00ge: Is Jorge Polanco droppable in a 12 team h2h league? (I’ve got Seager and Dansby as my other shortstops and plenty of MI depth)

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s been fine, but in your situation there’s no need to hold him

Roger: How long does Edwin Encarnacion have to be a below replacement level bat before we see andrew vaughn?

Paul Sporer: Probably a bit longer as they’re still cookin even with that dead spot

Bob: Would you trade Patino and a 5th for Montas in a dynasty?

Paul Sporer: I would, yes

Haggerty: Seeing some deep league interest in Haggerty (SEA): batting high, some speed, terrible projections – any interest?

Quarantino Martinez: Sam Haggerty: Western actor or useful AL only piece?

Paul Sporer: I’m interested strictly for speed bc he burn up the basepaths and he’s on the right team to do so as the M’s have run a ton

Tony: Teoscar is mashing and running. What’s his 2021 stat line?

Paul Sporer: .250-30-95-88-9

thebearproofsuit: if Taijuan Walker pitches well today and doesn’t get hurt then the M’s could trade him and get something of value.  Today is also probably the day he bursts into flames on the mound. (I’ve been doom and glooming the M’s since preseason and now Kyle Lewis is batting .900 so I can’t stop now..it’s working)

Paul Sporer: He’s on my list of players who could be dealt (goin live soon on the site)

daro: Can Bohm be a top 5 3b? Will he stick to 3B or move to another position?

Paul Sporer: If that raw power evolves into his game power, yes, because his plate profile is excellent and he should be a middle of the lineup guy to get the R/RBI necessary to be that good

Mike: Adell or Carlson long term?

Paul Sporer: Carlson for me

Joe: Better start tomorrow Freeland or Kim?

Paul Sporer: No way to use both? If I have to choose one, I’ll go Freeland, but both have nice setups

Tex: Likelihood Montero (TEX) gets traded? Does Hernandez take over if so and become a top-??? close ROS?

Gracias!

Paul Sporer: 35% (there’s still team control through ’22) and yes I’d think it’s Hernandez.

Ton: Where do you stand on Eovaldi? Metrics outside ERA seem to like him, is the ERA going to catch up?

Paul Sporer: I’m a long time Eovaldi fan and I’ve been pretty pleased w/his season. It was easy to avoid his start at NYY and that means you’ve gotten a 3.41 ERA in his other 5 starts. I think he’s a most of the time starter

Jerry: Winker is somehow up for grabs – would you drop Wil Myers, Conforto, or neither?

Paul Sporer: Those are the only two possible cuts? Damn. I’m not sure either is worth cutting even though I’m loving Winker this year. Best I could suggest is check upcoming schedules and decide that way? All three of monsters and should be on a team.

Matt: FYI Encarcion 2 for 2 with double and HR

Paul Sporer: LOL I was just typing that he went yard

Big Joey: Starting Anderson tonight vs NY is asking for trouble…right?

Paul Sporer: Begging for it, in fact

Men…: I keep waiting for Mendick to go away, but he’s holding steady

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s got alligator blood. He’s kinda like the guy he replaced, Leury Garcia – a solid if unspectacular player, but he’s part of a strong lineup so there’s even some deep league appeal

Big Joey: Start Fried tonight was NY?

Paul Sporer: Fried’s a set and forget for me

Big Joey: I’m very scared to throw any pitcher vs NY tbh

Paul Sporer: Understandably, but Fried is a stud that I’m trusting even in the tough matchups

Trent: Pick 2 out of 3 to play in a weekly lock league: Machado, Rendon, Jose Ramirez.

Paul Sporer: How the hell are you having to sit one of them?! Can you not to do trades? That’s just a waste of talent. I think you just have to go for matchups so assess schedules of all 3 and decide that way. I don’t envy having to make that choice

Trevor: Which are we more likely to see in 2021: DH in the NL or 7-inning doubleheaders?

Paul Sporer: DH a million percent

B: Brad Hand for Bundy or Fried? Which do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Fried. Both were targets for me this year, but Fried at a much higher level

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Lotta plates spinning today (the trade candidate piece might be pushed to tomorrow and then updated SPs on Friday). Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

Ryan E: Devin Williams and Josh Staumont next great closers?

Paul Sporer: I can sneak one more comment in to plug a piece 🙂 https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-next-crop-of-elite-relievers/

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real!