Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 18th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! Let’s talk some baseball!

Garbel: Which year do you think the Mariners will break their playoff drought?

Paul Sporer: 2023

Greg: I’m having a tough time deciding on my 1B and corner IF spots next year. How would you fill those spots out of Andrew Vaughn, Rizzo, Austin Riley and Kiriloff in a league where I can keep them forever?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably start moving away from Rizzo and while I do love Kirilloff, he is behind Vaughn & Riley right now due to the health

Jose Alpizar: Should I hold ok Kelenic on a 12 team league? What’s his true upside for 2021?

Paul Sporer: Redraft?

Jose Alpizar: Yes, redraft!

Paul Sporer: I don’t think you need to hold onto him at this juncture

Paul Sporer: His upside this year would be finding some pop and stealing a few bases

Mike: Jazz had everyone excited early in the year. How do you view him in dynasty 2B rankings?

Paul Sporer: I can get him top 10 for sure. He’s Baez-esque in terms of his volatility. There is great upside, but the downside can be severe w/that plate profile

Greg: Q: What happens when Paul loses a dollar?

Greg: A: Paul’s poorer

Henry: Do you think Tatis stays in the OF full time next year?

Paul Sporer: I think it depends on how his surgery goes and heals w/everything. If they think it can keep him even 5-10% healthier, then he’ll be an OF IMO

Chas: Tejay Antone or Aaron Bummer for my H2H playoffs? HLDs/SVs are separate categories.

Paul Sporer: I’m jumping on the Antone train now that he’s on rehab

Pie: Are you hoping you can make a push for the ME title?

Greg: Can you please let us know which place you’re in for all your leagues?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m in 1st in my Main Event and top 30 in the overall. I’m 2nd in a Rotowire Online Championship (12 tms) and my TGFBI league (15), I’m living up to the name of the “Beat Paul Sporer” leagues as I’m 9th and 10th in those. I’m 2nd overall in Razzslam. Mid-pack in LABR, brutal in Tout H2H despite getting both Ohtanis (he’s split as hitter and pitcher… got hitter for $4, pitcher for $1). Overall, I’m pretty happy w/how the season is going and really hope to pull at least 2 titles from those 4 teams that are 1st/2nd

Chas: FYI, Jazz is striking out less than he was. Look at his monthly splits.

Paul Sporer: Ya, it’s way down this month but still 28% on the year

Brian: How would you rank these pitchers in dynasty? Montas, Skubal, Manoah, McClanahan.

Paul Sporer: I think I’d go Montas/Manoah/Skubal/McClanahan (love Shane but TB can be annoying w/how they handle guys)

Pie: Flipped Pete Alonso and Tristan McKenzie for Corbin Burnes and Hunter Dozier in a dynasty OBP league – how do you think I did there?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with that. Burnes is a big time ace

Skippy: In the midst of a title chase in a 12 team mixed 5×5 roto, and my bench/DL is getting crowded and I need to be utilizing every spot.  Should I keep holding DL stashes like Bregman and Ian Anderson or is it time to cut bait?

Paul Sporer: Both guys are on rehab so I’d definitely hold both of them, but guys like Urquidy and Pablo Lopez probably need to start being cut

BD: thoughts on Adolis Garcia rest of the way? Other Options are Lewis Brinson, Harrison Bader, Lorenzo Cain, Austin Hays. How would you rank those guys?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s very cuttable. I’d cut him for Bader all day https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-969-tim…

Henry: Tatis to the OF full time would be kind of a bummer for his fantasy value, right?

Paul Sporer: A little, but not that much. SS is stacked and OF has actually felt thin at many points this year

T: Are you buying Dansby’s power and Austin Riley’s overall improvement?

Paul Sporer: Yes, Swanson keeps showing progress toward being a real stud. I buy into him. We discussed Riley on yesterday’s pod and his ’22 outlook. Really like him: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-969-tim…

El Oso: End of bench drops, will likely have to make some drops to clear space for IL returnees (Lindor/Buxton). Schoop, Soler, Rojas and Mateo are the last four. Which two go?

El Oso: For my previous question, forgot to mention which Rojas: Miguel Rojas.

Paul Sporer: Unless you desperately need the SBs, cut Mateo (I think you can w/getting Lindor & Buxton back, too). I’d cut Rojas, too, unless AVG is a necessity (and again, the two returners help that)

Big Fan: Kevin Smith just called up by Blue Jays. What size league should be paying attention?

Paul Sporer: I’d say at least 12s with 10s putting him on a Watchlist bc he’s power/speed (19 HR/16 SB). Is he going to play third?

Club Dub: Kevin Smith up in Toronto. AAA profile looks more like his lower level raking seasons. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Just adding that Smith Q, too, to clear it from the queue

Chartreuse: Don’t sleep on Kelenic either.  Since I traded him away Aug. 1, he’s hitting .235/.344/.490 w/ 3 HR, 4 2B, 14.8 BB% & 14.8 K%.  The improvements in the plate profile are encouraging, even if a .225 BABIP is holding down the AVG.

Paul Sporer: Ya I’ve found myself watching a lot more Seattle games than I’d have thought coming into the year and he’s definitely improving. I still think he’s cuttable in 10s and 12s, espec. in 3 OF lgs

Milt: Tellez or Walsh ROS?

Paul Sporer: Walsh has been rough since returning from the IL. I’d go Tellez right now

Bob: Cut Civale loose from the IL, too?

Paul Sporer: He’s more team dependent bc he is making some progress having thrown off a mound last week

Bob: Is Matt Olson really a .280 hitter or closer to .260?

Paul Sporer: His work this year is fully believable. I’d probably project him for more of a .265 next year since this is the first year we’ve seen the .280 excellence

Bob: Do you think the Yankees will keep Gil in rotation when he gets next call-up, presumably this weekend?

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to say. I’d be careful not to have too many expectations on him bc they have several arms even before German returns: Cole/Monty/Heaney/Taillon/Cortes/Gil and then German working his way back

OddBall Herrera: Is Conforto a buy low dynasty target for you?  Or is he a “Chuckle at the team that is locked in to keeping him, because he’s cooked”, target?

Paul Sporer: I’d say yes in dynasty for sure. This year has been a mega dud but I think he gets right over the offseason and pops off next year

Guest: Speaking of Riley, can keep him and Rutschmann at the same price next season. But only one.

Paul Sporer: I’d keep Riley for sure. I generally don’t trust rookie catchers in fantasy and Riley looks like a .280-30-100 guy with 40 HR upside

Brad: Do you think we see Brujan back up for any meaningful PT this year? I know it’s hard to predict anything Rays, but he’s back on track in minors

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think you nail it re: the Rays. He’s a G and I had no doubts that he’d go back to raking in AAA. It just depends if an opening happens.

bruno: are you in on either of nick anderson or julian merryweather when they return?

Paul Sporer: I think Anderson will definitely take the Castillo role of being “essentially” the closer but Merryweather won’t IMO

Vader: Hi Paul! Thx for the chat!   I need bullpen help down the stretch of a H2H….you grabbing Ranger Suarez or J Barlow?

Paul Sporer: Suarez is starting and they really seem set on that especially bc he’s doing well. Barlow seems to have the Texas job

Guest: Walsh was pretty terrible prior to going on the IL too! .543 OPS in 19 games in July before the injury.

Paul Sporer: I wasn’t making too much of that streak, though. It was pretty tiny BABIP and his K% was still fine.

Pat Listachio: Spitball a way-too-early 1st round ADP for 2022!!!???

Paul Sporer: I’m so bad at doing those things off the top of my dome, but I usually do an article or pod sometime in late-Aug/early-Sept so we’re close

Harry: Still sticking with Javier to the Stros rotation prediction? I scooped 2-3 weeks ago but he’s not really doing much for me

Paul Sporer: Yes I’m staying bought in on that. I just cannot see them letting Garcia go the full way in the rotation and Urquidy isn’t really close to returning. Hell, they might even be looking to get Framber and McCullers a little rest. I know I’m out on a limb since they haven’t said anything, but I’d be floored if Javier wasn’t starting at some pt relatively soon

Bob: Soto or Vlad Jr.?

Paul Sporer: Flip a coin? I’ll lean Soto, but they’re sooo close

Inquiring Mind: Are you starting Ynoa and Elieser with confidence RoS?  Both looked good in comeback starts.

Paul Sporer: I’m inclined to go with Ynoa off rip espec. bc I don’t usually get too bogged down in rehab stats. I wasn’t super keen on Elieser coming into the year bc of his major HR issue and that hasn’t gone anywhere

Steve: Just had both Winker and Springer go down. 10 teamer so the wire looks decent – which 2 do you like of Aguilar, cesar Hernandez, France, grossman, Duvall, cutch

Paul Sporer: I’d go Grossman/France and pair them w/Duvall. Duvall covers the power lost and one of Gross/France gives the AVG to cover Duvall a bit

Brad: Any intrigue in Reynaldo Lopez? Seems to stretching out and lines look good so far

Paul Sporer: Been down that road toooooo many times lol

Paul Sporer: I’ve been his biggest backer for years, tbh, but I just can’t take the plunge off just a few starts

Paul Sporer: Sorry had a phone call there

Adam: Think Touki keeps his rotation spot?

Paul Sporer: Worried about Ian Anderson pushing him? I’d say that’s a valid concern if he doesn’t perform well enough to fend off Smyly or Ynoa

Nate: Hey Paul! Do you think Schwarber ‘s regular days off are just caution with his return from injury, or a plan for the duration?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s going to play essentially every day. Random off day here & there, but nothing that majorly hurts his value

Kate: How interesting do you think Jon Gray would be for 2022 if he signed somewhere other than Colorado?  How much would he move up ranks?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really think he’s leaving. That’s basically why he wasn’t traded. So I think it’ll be the same

Chantanella: Alex Wood worth rostering the rest of the season if he’s on the waiver wire?

12-tm, roto, dynasty, standard 5 + QS

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, he’s no worse than a team streamer (meaning you just reserve him when not using him instead of cutting him)

Chas: Zunino dingers every day now. Drop Sean Murphy for him?

Paul Sporer: Literally 5 straight… and yes, very easily over Murphy

Score: Six-to Vaughn: Do you think that Sano is done, he has another year on his contract.

Paul Sporer: Not done, but he is what he is… which is an all-or-nothing power guy. It’s just not that exciting or terribly difficult to replicate on the wire

Gavin: Hey Paul! I’m thinking way ahead here, but 14-team keeper points league–I have Bobby Witt Jr and Adley Rutschman. I can keep one of them from 2022-2024, and I can keep one of them from 2022-2025. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Keep Witt longer. Going back to my point re: catching prospects. Just not something I have any real trust for

Kate: How much of what we’re seeing from India is real?  The BABIP is obviously inflated, but is the rest fairly sustainable?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t even think the BABIP is super egregious at .349. Wouldn’t project him for that, but not dropping it by 50+ pts, either. He can be a .310s-.320s true talent BABIP. The power and speed make sense for his profile. Could be some growth down the line, but he’s one of those without a true fantasy carrying tool but the whole package adds up v nicely

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. New SP list coming soon ahead of next week’s chat so we can spend a lot time discussing that next Wednesday! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!