Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 18th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone!!

Y’llo: Drop my Steve Pearce for Solarte or Wong?

Paul Sporer: Seems lateral, isn’t Pearce raking lately, too?

Andrew Heaney: Do you think I make an impact for teams in the running with injured SP’s?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Heaney fan overall, but I keep expectations very low with arms returning from major injury

Nathan: Is this up and running?

Paul Sporer: It is, yes

Ronnie: In a deep dynasty roto league, what’s a realistic return if I were to trade Stanton right now? My team’s out of it this year and I could package Stanton with Billy Hamilton to try to get a better return.

Paul Sporer: Depends what your market would yield, but you’re obviously able to ask for a lot given his production

Paul Sporer: But if I give a bunch of names, I don’t think it does you any good because it still depends what the leaguemates will give

Dave: I missed out on Castillo’s start against the Cubs this week b/c I was worried about the lineup… is he a must-start the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: Well he could be shutdown before the season’s end bc of innings, so we still gotta go start-to-start with him, but he’s been strong against a brutal slate thus far

Kosmo: You are the Mike Trout of baseball podcasters

Paul Sporer: I really appreciate that

Dalaibauma: What it do

Paul Sporer: Yoooo

Jay: Happy Friday Paul. If you had to rank the OFs for 2018, where are you putting Ronald Acuna at this point?

Paul Sporer: Friday!!! Maybe top 80 right now? I wouldn’t go overboard

Kosmo: Are you buying Mazara”s recent surge

Paul Sporer: I’ve always been a big Mazara fan. He demolishes righties. If he can develop vL, he’s a superstar

Chris: which elite pitcher do you see getting blown up tonight?

Paul Sporer: Andrew Cashner ?

Paul Sporer: I’ll selfishly say Rich Hill since I’m a Tigers fan

Chuck: So the A’s have the worst defensive team in baseball. Given their love of analytics, why? Is terrible defense by guys who hit dingers the new market inefficiency?

Paul Sporer: Well I think we kinda saw that this past offseason with the sluggers not really cashing in and several sitting out there for quite some time

Jimmy: Looking to add a little power to my team for the stretch run and both K Davis and Gallo are available. Who do you prefer ROS?

Paul Sporer: Davis

Nate J.: Paul! How do you like Charlie Morton ROS?

Paul Sporer: I like Morton a lot, but health has just so consistently eluded him. But while upright, I regularly use him

S: How do you prepare for a podcast recording, and how much time do you spend on it?

Paul Sporer: Prepare a list of topics, record on the site we use, edit, and post — probably 2-3 hours start-to-finish unless the recording is messed up then I either fix it or send it off to my homie to help fix it. The setup for the Saturday pod takes longer getting all the roster rates for the free agents

Chris: Which elite pitcher do you think loses tonight (kluber, hill, scherzer, kuechel)

Paul Sporer: Hill, Keuchel, Scherzer, Kluber is my order of potential blowupness

Zach: Who do you prefer ROS:

Paul Sporer: It’s in white font, you have to select it to view

Chandler: I’ve been recently getting more interested in joining a dynasty league.  As a 10-team h2h categories player is this a steep jump to make?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think so. If you’re actively seeking out a dynasty league, it seems you’re aware of the depth of such a league so I don’t imagine you’ll be overwhelmed

The Big Trade: Paul, got a big offer in my keep forever.  OBP/QS 5×5.  My Bryant, Quintana and Wacha for his Blackmon and Goldschmidt.  Thoughts?  Hate to give up Bryant, but seems like a good offer.

Paul Sporer: Ya if you can give the pitching, it’s a great deal. It is tough to give Bryant, but you’re getting 2 first rounders

Mike: Sean Manaea – top ___ dynasty pitcher?  50?

Paul Sporer: Ya, 50 works. He has sputtered over the dog days, but he’s still got a bright future IMO

Tyler: Is Marte for Osuna a fair swap for saves?

Paul Sporer: Yes for sure

Zach: Who do you prefer ROS: Rodon, Corbin, Castillo, Clevinger.

Paul Sporer: I think that’s the order. I really like Castillo, but he’s already 15 IP over his 2016 mark and Cincy just won’t have incentive to push him so he slots third even though I like him more than Corbin on an inning-by-inning basis

Dr. Met: Any expanded roster callups expected to get the lionshare of playing time that we should look to stash?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, sounds like an interesting article idea

Nick: The Pirates need to give Glasnow another shot in September, right? Dude is DEALING in AAA

Paul Sporer: Yes, I really think they will. And I’m intrigued by his mechanical changes.

James: Should I trade longoria and verlander for conforto and josh Harrison? Have a ton of third baseman (Donaldson, beltre, devers, Shaw) and could use another outfielder.

Paul Sporer: Sure, that’s fair

80 grade question asker: who do you got in 2018: devers or lamb?

Paul Sporer: Oooh, that’s a good one. I’m gonna stick with Lamb, but let’s ask everyone

Paul Sporer:

yojiveself: hold onto Reynaldo through his injury?  He was so-so his first start.  What type of ERA can we expect from him ROS?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league type, but probably not in most mixers

Big Tuna: My relievers (Edwin, Holland) are killing my ratios. Do I abandon saves for ratio relievers if I’m in it?

Paul Sporer: Not if you’re just going to lose the points in saves. You have to assess the standings gains/losses that move would likely yield and go from there

ChicagoCardinal: What do you think about Devenski in dynasty? Seems like he’s been a bit overused or fatigued lately. Is he a starter, RH Andrew Miller or Scot Proctor?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he’s a starter. I’d put him in between Miller and Proctor, tbh. I get your concerns of overuse, but I think he’ll avoid Proctor fate. As for thinking about him in dynasty, I’m not overly enamored of any RP in a keeper situation, especially one who doesn’t give saves (or holds if they’re counted)

Big Tuna: Is Lyons worth owning or does OH have that job locked?

Paul Sporer: Shit, completely missed Rosy’s DL move yesterday. Ya, I’d say it’s Oh

Jazzhead: What is Orlando Arcia’s ceiling?

Paul Sporer: Lindor’s 2016?

Tim Beckham: I AM A GOLDEN GOD

Paul Sporer: You’re so incredible

OC: Thoughts on Addison Russell in dynasty? Tough season, but more concerned about the recent foot problems (Plantar fasciitis is bad news and chronic) Worth selling at reduced price?

Paul Sporer: Ya foot issues suuuuuck. I’m staying the course despite the paltry season. I still think the skills are there for another level

KB: Believe in Byron Buxton again?

Paul Sporer: Again?

99: Is trade addiction real?  I can’t stop.

Paul Sporer: For some, yes

Big Boy Bombers: In keeper obp slg league, need to deal one of Gallo(keepable 17,16,14,11,7) or Sano(17,14,10,5) due to keeper logjam at 3B, which would you rather keep compared to expected trade return (likely picks) on the other?

Paul Sporer: Would prefer to keep Sano, but he might offer a more substantial return so I’d probably sell him for the better payoff

Chuck: Is Keon Broxton worth keeping around in a 12-team H2H ROS? Eddie Rosario?

Paul Sporer: neither

Cody: Are you a believer in Gregorious? Seems like he’s put it all lately

Paul Sporer: Ya I tend to buy what he’s doing

Orange Whips: Interesting piece on Berrios. Who do you like better in a keeper the next two years, him or Nelson?

Paul Sporer: thanks! (in case anyone missed it: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pros-cons-jose-berrios/) I prefer Berrios to Nelson

Scott: Thoughts on Thames going in to next year? I can keep him for $6 next year in a $270 league. It was a no-brainer in April…

Paul Sporer: I’m still keeping him. I think he’ll still be solid next year

Paul Sporer: I also thought he’d stay awesome this year, though, so I’m a clown

Kings Center Brad Miller: Why has Brad Miller been so awful this year? I was expecting something between his 2015 and 2016 seasons, but it’s almost as if 2016 never happened.

Paul Sporer: 76 sporadic games, groin & ab injuries. I think those aspects really explain the awful run. Could see him being a big $1 payoff in 2018

Frenchy: Do you like Eloy’s chances of making any impact of late 2018?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see the chances being *too* high unless the Sox rise up early and are in the mix

tonyc: I keep holding Maybin in all of my leagues because he can easily rip off 5 SB in a week, but he’s worthless right now.  There are no steals on the wire anywhere.  Time to bail for help in other categories?

Paul Sporer: Ya 1-for-5 since June 28th :-\

Harold: If you had to drop a pitcher to get some hitting, which of the following would you say I’ll have no regrets in dropping: Ryu, Faria, Rodon, Lamet…also, looking forward to new pitching rankings! 🙂

Paul Sporer: Lamet

Paul Sporer: (rankings still coming!)

Zock Jr.: Who’s the better hitter ROS: Devers or Mookie?

Paul Sporer: Mookie, of course

Harold: What are your thoughts on running a 0 catcher strategy? I had Wilson Ramos and Tyler Flowers recently but they were either not playing much or not producing. So I use the spot for extra SP and go 0 catcher since not much out on the waiver. Thinking about abandoning and picking up Avila or Pina though…

Paul Sporer: in a 1 C league? I can understand it for a period of time here and there, but even with the meager offerings, their counting numbers are still better than a total 0. of course, if your offense is humming and you have enough over-performers to cover it, then by all means you can do it for a few weeks

Jaas: Fowler over M.A. Taylor in re-draft, right?

Paul Sporer: Ya unless you desperately need the speed more

Splitting Hairs?: Puig v. Hicks ROS

Paul Sporer: Hicks for me

EK: Cargo or Pham ROS?

Paul Sporer: Pham

Paul Sporer: I’m just done with Cargo for 2017.

Alvin: How are you feeling about Dexter Fowler rest of season? Worthy of a 3 OF league?

Paul Sporer: He’s on the border, but I can see a team using him and it not being out of bounds

Dr. Met: Shouldn’t we just shut down Matz before he somehow tears his body apart from walking up the stairs or something?

Dr. Met: btw I see you tweeting, no wonder! 🙂

Paul Sporer: No wonder what?

Paul Sporer: But ya, I can see Matz’s season being ended prematurely

Rizzo: How do you value Odor in a dynasty? Still so young, but my hopes of a breakout are fading.

Paul Sporer: I’ve never been a big Odor fan, but even with that I think he’s a buy in dynasty and worth holding if you have him

Kevin: I want to drop Amed Rosario, but not comfortable rolling with Xander ROS. Should I platoon, or drop Xander/Rosario?

Paul Sporer: I really wouldn’t want to drop either right now if you can avoid it. Just platoon them and see if one catches fire

Longo: RODON!! Safe to rely in him for the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Welllll he’s never been particularly safe, even at his best, so I wouldn’t use that word, but I am using him in pennant chases of all formats

JOhn: I’ll say it again – let’s stop accepting questions from ppl in 8 or 10-team leagues… who still have guys like Khris Davis on the waiver.

Paul Sporer: You can keep saying it, but it’s still stupid. The idea that 8-10 team leagues are somehow inferior is just silly. It’s simply a different set of parameters. In an 8-10 league, he doesn’t have the same value he does in a 15-team league. That’s obvious, but still seems lost of ppl who think only deep leagues are worthwhile.

Paul Sporer: I like deeper formats as much as the next, but they also become a battle of attrition where we actually ADD luck into the mix despite some believing it does the opposite. In an 8-12 team league, there are always options so it comes down to the management and I’d contend it flexes more fantasy skill than a 20-team mixer or 12-team AL Only

80 grade question asker: thanks paul, but i know it was a good one. im an 80 grade question asker

Paul Sporer: lol

James: When is the next time you could see the Tigers making the playoffs? I’m okay with the rebuild, but are we going into another 1990’s style drought?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’ll be quite that disastrous, but there will be a downturn. I think there’s a blueprint for rebuilds that makes it so you really shouldn’t go on decade-long droughts anymore

weezy: Yo Paul, love your work. Are you a h2h or roto person? And what is your favorite category breakdown?

Paul Sporer: I’m roto primarily, but become more interested in H2H each year. I’m really fine with the standard 5×5 categories, though I do like Holds getting in there to keep MRP value up a bit. I like OBP and will certainly play in leagues with it, but I don’t think it’s a MUST for any league as it just further adds value players who are already very well accounted for in fantasy baseball.

Trent: You like Bauer at KC or Ryu at DET as a pitcher pick up for tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: Ryu. I just never trust Bauer

Chance The Rapper: What is your opinion on the trade veto system in leagues? What method works the best in your experience?

Paul Sporer: I think they’re absolutely awful and I really aim to stay out of leagues with them. No one votes without their interests in mind first and foremost so they *default* to veto and then work from there. Vetoes should only be conducted in the case of collusion and if you believe there to be collusion, you need to kick the offending owners out after the veto. It’s a one-and-done on collusion.

Paul Sporer: If you really want to have a veto system in place, it shouldn’t be the default for all trades. It should be engaged if a problematic trade arises that is causing major league dissent. That isn’t one guy whining about how it shouldn’t go through, but rather half or more of the league reaching out about it or something

Paul Sporer: Vetoes are trash.

Phil: How many more good starts do you need from Salazar before you can feel good trust him as a top 15 pitcher for next year?

Paul Sporer: He’d have to be a stud the rest of the season for that kind of lofty outlook, but I’ll have him in that top 25-30 range barring an injury or meltdown

Sirras One: Am I gonna be able to ride Chris Taylor into the playoffs? Or should I start getting worried?

Paul Sporer: I’m trusting him. Haven’t really seen any slow down and his surge is skill-supported

chewbacca: I think JOhn fails to realize how difficult it is to find 14+ people who want to play fantasy baseball for a full season. It’s hard enough getting 10-12 to commit

Paul Sporer: That’s a big part, too. I’d rather have 8 super-engaged owners in an 8-team league than 11 in an 18-teamer

Paul Sporer: Listen, I used to be league-shamer guy and I’d shit on shallower leagues the same way, but then I realized just how stupid it is on many levels, the biggest of which is alienating people who are playing the game we all want to grow and continue to thrive. It’ll never be fantasy football and that’s fine because it’s actually difficult to win a fantasy baseball league (never said I won’t shit on fantasy football, even though I avidly play it, lol), but trolling a small league just bc it’s small is wholly unnecessary

Merv Throneberry: Are DeJong, Pham and Spangenberg the real deals now?

Paul Sporer: Sorta (believe his pwr, but the avg is fraudulent af), sorta (believe the skills, but he’s 29 with health issues & a degenerative eye issue), and yeah (I buy him as a .270, double-double player)

Porcho Villa: Why won’t Matt Carpenter hit home runs? His peripherals scream power breakout but just 1 in last 30

Paul Sporer: Frustrating season given the positive metrics, but a deeper look has left me really thinking it’s some bad luck over anything else. His BABIP and HR/FB are just on the lower end of their outcome range keeping his numbers down a bit

Ayush : What has happened to AJ Pollock? His steals and power numbers are down

Paul Sporer: Maybe the injuries are just taking their toll on the 29-year old

Paul Sporer: 3 HR, 6-for-9 SB since May 1st (although that’s only 50 games for him)

Paul Sporer: So also some small sample noise could be mixed in since it’s been another disjointed season, but he’ll be 30 next year. We’ve seen the best of Pollock without a doubt

Dave: fwiw, article earlier this month in the Pittsburgh paper that noted that the Pirates save a year w/ Glasnow if they keep him down through Aug. 26.

Paul Sporer: Ya I was figuring Sept. call up at this point since we hadn’t seen him yet. Great find. Tweet it to me at @sporer with the link and I’ll RT

Jon Snow: Any reason to believe that Buxton’s recent surge is for real? Should he be  picked up in 12 team mixed leagues, 6×6 with OBP and SLG?

Paul Sporer: Not any more reason than his strong pedigree still giving him some measure of hope even in the face of his struggles. I’ve personally lowered his overall ceiling some as I just don’t think we’ve seen anything to believe he has that same upside we saw in his earlier prospect days. I no longer see him as a potential *elite* (1st-2nd rounder) fantasy player bc he just doesn’t make enough contact and BABIP can only carry you so far (could still see him spiking a .280 season bc of the speed-fueled BABIP).

GK: Any thoughts on Bogaerts vs. Rosario next year? Hold both in a keeper auction league — Rosario for virtually nothing and Bogaerts for a good amount ($20+).

Paul Sporer: The price seems to make the Rosario the easy choice, but I’m not giving up on Bogaerts. He’s still just 25 next yr and we’ve seen a bit of everything. Prospect growth isn’t linear. I think he can live at 2016’s level for a multi-year span

Porcho Villa: You starting Manaea tonight vs. HOU? Or is it too terrifying after his last three outings?

Paul Sporer: Totally cool bypassing him here, especially with an injury history like his (meaning he might be trying to pitch through something… and failing). Don’t mess with (Houston) Texas

KB: How was Buxton the #1 overall prospect if you think noone believed in him?

Paul Sporer: What?

Paul Sporer: Where did I say no one believe in him?

My man Paul!: Paul, you cover a lot of dudes, and I’m sure it makes your head spin at times! Take it from someone whose watched Rodon for 5 years, and almost went to college because of him and Trah Turner. This kid is on the precipice of breaking out into one of the game’s elite. Mark it down brother, it’s Rodon time!!!

Paul Sporer: He’s one of my favorites. I was super-hyped on him coming into the season and subsequently bummed when he got hurt. Even reco’d him for the stretch run http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-eight-pitchers-wort…

Paul Sporer: Btw, I think some forget how heralded he and Turner were at NC St. IIRC, Turner had a meh final season and fell to 13 when he was talked at among top 5 all spring and of course Rodon went #3 so his bona fides are there. Big fan of both. Eager to see a peak Rodon

Tyler: I traded away Bellinger for Mookie a little over two months ago and I pretty much regret it. I love and hate baseball.

Paul Sporer: Haha, still a month and a half. Obviously the results haven’t gone your way, but I make that trade for sure a month or so ago. Would probably do it today, too

Chin Music: Rosenthal a hold or drop? No DL space and I’m doing pretty well in saves.

Paul Sporer: Then I think you can move on if you’ve got someone on the wire you’re eyeing

Hannah Hochevar: Hey Paul. Still hoping for your take on Zimmer given his August struggles. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: It’s been especially and (1-for-37 for Bradley Zimmer), but I’m not sure it’s really much beyond a standard rookie lull. I mean it’s on the low end of outcomes with that silly .050, but I’m not overly worried

Melky: Only ONE player has at least 19 HR’s and 19 SB’s.  And you’ll NEVER guess who it is!

Paul Sporer: Then it’s not Altuve

Paul Sporer: Pham?

Paul Sporer: Goldy?

Paul Sporer: Hmmm

Paul Sporer: Oooh, I got it – Elvis Andrus?

Andrew: Broxton! 19-19 is Broxton!

Paul Sporer: Oh son of a bitch

Paul Sporer: Basically Melvin Upton from last year

Bort: Speaking of Rodon, would you dump Faria for him? Not sure what to make of Faria going forward

Paul Sporer: I would. I like Faria, but Rodon’s ceiling is substantially higher

Wily Mo Pena: Godley: Godlike or merely human?

Paul Sporer: Quite Godley indeed. Really strong skills supporting his work

Matt W: Do you believe in Whit Merrifield?

Paul Sporer: Too Whit-lit to Sit, you mean?

Paul Sporer: Curious if he can maintain a .285+ AVG with 44% FB, but I buy a lot of what he’s done this year — particularly the speed

Cody: I totally agree on the league size commentary. Less overall roster spots = more variability & tougher cutting decisions!

Paul Sporer: Exactly. And something like NFBC with no DL really tightens the screws on decision-making

tonyc: Straily and/or Estrada droppable in 10-team dynasty?  Arms on the wire are guys like McHugh, Corbin, Eickhoff, Conley, Hoffman, Pivetta, Kennedy, Skaggs.

Paul Sporer: Ya, you can stream those spots, though Estrada had four gems before his dud last time out so I’d favor him among the entire group

Soup Dawg: How do you expect Heaney to fare rest of 2017?  Think he will outperform Berrios or E Rod?

Paul Sporer: I’d be really surprised if he did. I don’t usually mess with TJ/thoracic outlet returns late in the season like this. Just too many unknowns to have any real firm expectations

GK: How pessimistic are you re: Cano this year and next?

Paul Sporer: I’m always going to be leery of a 35-year old 2B, but he’s hardly killing anyone’s team. I think he’ll be fairly priced next year and offer a solid-but-unspectacular season like this one

Molten Wong: Ian Happ yesterday, double dong. Today, golden sombrero.

Paul Sporer: Ah, baseball!

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately my two faves both have the Astros – Tyler Skaggs & Edwin Jackson so if you’re not feeling that daring, maybe Jose Urena instead

RJ: Sneaky two-start pitcher rec for next week?

Paul Sporer: lol answered the Q before posting it. sick life.

Dr. Met: TLC: “don’t go chasing double-dongs…..”

Paul Sporer: that was such a good song they made

Bort: Machado was looking to be the best value pick of next year’s draft until he started picking it up. What player do you see dropping in drafts who are primed for a bounce back next year?

Paul Sporer: I actually don’t think he was going to be much of a value, either way. Even if the season had run out on his BABIP regression, he was going to be someone a lot of folks would’ve touted as the same guy we know and love save a handful of base hits that didn’t fall in.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Follow me on Twitter @sporer, Snapchat at psporer, and Twitch at psporer24 (where I stream MLB The Show and other baseball gms — I’ll be on for a bit this evening!)