Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 16th, 2019 by Paul Sporer August 16, 2019 Transcript is below! 12:25 Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! Let’s talk some baseball!!! 12:27 Big L > Jay Z: Say it’s ok for me to trade May and Eloy as keepers for a chance to win my league. Bless me please. 12:27 Paul Sporer: If you’re getting the pieces to greatly aid your title chances, then yes, I’m down with it 12:29 Paul Sporer: Y’all remember when Matt Holliday went 28-for-30 in SBs?!?! https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1873&position=OF 12:29 Willa Ford: Will Smith or Mitch Garver ROS? It’s a weird format: Standard cats + OBP + Hits. 12:31 Paul Sporer: I’ll take Garver by a hair 12:31 Rocco: Paul its hard bc I have a razor thin edge in WHIP, ERA etc., but I have to start Maeda vs. ATL, Ryu vs. ATL, and Clevinger vs. NYY right? 12:31 Paul Sporer: Yes, those are two of your superstar arms and another very solid mid-rotation guy 12:31 Blockbuster Lover: Keeper League: Gerrit Cole for Ronald Acuna Who if anybody do I need to add to Cole to get Acuna 12:32 Paul Sporer: You probably need to add a viable hitter to get it done unless the Acuña manager just loooooves Cole 12:32 Don’t Tauch me man: I grabbed Lugo and Melancon as my closers. How many closers do I have between them? 12:32 Paul Sporer: 1.5 right now 12:33 Poor Choices: In a roto 5×5 dynasty league, in a rebuilding year and looking to deal my $10 Marcus Stroman ($400 budget). Friend offered me $6 Jesse Winker and $3 Aaron Bummer for him. Is that a fair rage of value you would target or would you aim higher? 12:34 Paul Sporer: I’m still a big Winker fan so I can get behind this. I’d prefer someone else besides Bummer, but I’d still do the deal even if you can’t get someone different 12:34 DiscoStu: In an AL only H2H would you give Dillon Peters a shot with two starts next week, @rangers @ astros, over Junis? 12:36 Paul Sporer: No I can’t do it. TEX & HOU decimate lefties 12:36 Rocco: Thanks Paul for all your advice. Darvish looked like an ace last night in Phila and he has re-gained his control. What do you expect from him ROS? 12:37 Paul Sporer: I expect him to continue pitching very well. This transformation has been absolutely insane with just 2 BB in his last 8 starts 12:37 caesarsolid: I traded Scherzer for Matt Chapman and Soroka in Ottoneu. Am I a dweeb? 12:37 Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think so 12:37 Guest: Willie Calhoun, Stephen Piscotty, or Raisel Tapia (5×5 OBP)? 12:37 Paul Sporer: Calhoun 12:37 Rocco: What’s wrong with Hoskins? Should I be benching him during this awful stretch? 12:39 Paul Sporer: His August has been awful and he’s dealing with a hand issue now which could sideline him so I could see benching him in fantasy, too 12:39 Dodger Blues: I have Gavin Lux stashed, should I hold or cut bait? 12:40 Paul Sporer: Hold until you can’t. I just scooped him in a 10-teamer as a stash but it looks like they aren’t calling him up until September at the earliest (barring some sort of injury that would force their hand) and even then they might just let him come up in a ride-along situation where he simply travels with the team but doesn’t make the roster. If you have the reserve spot, I like the stash, but the second you’re backed into a corner with a roster crunch, he can be set free 12:40 Smokin Lowed: What do you expect from Cueto upon his return? Looked good last year before the injury but 2017 was rough. Thanks! 12:41 Paul Sporer: I’m keeping expectations low. I’ve always been a Cueto guy and I can see stashing him just in case, but I’m not *banking* on him for anything 12:41 Nate: McKay or Manaea RoS? (5×5) 12:42 Paul Sporer: Gimme McKay 12:43 Phyllis: Paul, thanks as always and being able to make it this week… I’m in 2nd in a three horse race (12-tm mixed roto, 6×6, $260 salary cap). I feel like I need to make a trade and really have only one potential partner, who is out of the running. What do you say to my Matt Chapman ($12 keeper) and Brendan McKay ($10) for his Anthony Rendon? Too much to give up? Alternatively, my Josh Bell ($6) and McKay for his Rendon and JD Martinez? In this one, is that not enough to give up? The other team needs keepers, so I feel like I have some leverage. 12:44 Paul Sporer: Can’t do the first one. Chapman could feasibly match Rendon ROS so then you’re just giving away McKay. I can get behind the second one a lot more. Bell/JD might cancel (but it’s not hard to envision JD doing better) and then of course Rendon >> McKay 12:44 K: Any consideration for Canning as an HM on the top 30 list? The underlying numbers (swstr) are elite. Seems like he’s a sequencing adjustment from breaking out. 12:45 Paul Sporer: He’s in the next big glob, which I’ll get into more in the offseason 12:45 Joe: 12 team H2H Keeper 12 x 12 categories, who do you like better ROS, Castellanos or Brian Anderson? Thanks! 12:46 Paul Sporer: Gimme Casty. They could essentially match each other in individual categories, but team-based #s like R & RBI go to Casty in the much better lineup 12:46 CharlotteFan!: Any value in Corban Joseph in AL only? 12:49 Paul Sporer: It looks like OAK is gonna play him and he was destroying AAA (.371 AVG/13 HR in 425 PA) — give him a go! 12:49 Firstbase Wasteland: First base is a wasteland and my mediocre Smoak just lost his job to Tellez. I picked up Aguilar and Renato, just HOW screwed am I? Also any other deep league pickups I should pursue? 12:50 Paul Sporer: That’s rough, but you can keep grinding it out with matchup plays. Ideally Nunez in weeks with more lefties for BAL. Who else is available on the wire? 12:50 Rocco: Brendan McKay’s results have been very subpar after the strong start — still start him vs. SEA and DET? 12:51 Paul Sporer: The SD start sucked, espec. w/the 6 BB, but even with that he has a very useful 21% K-BB. I’m definitely starting him against dregs like SEA & DET 12:51 Matt W: Bradley a set&forget closer from here on out? 12:52 Paul Sporer: Yes I think he FINALLY got his hands on the gig 12:52 Beefy 1b’s: Hi Paul! Obp league: Mike Ford, ji man Choi, rowdy Tellez? Thanks! 12:53 Paul Sporer: Choi, Ford, Tellez 12:53 Closers : Who would you target: Hendricks or Osuna? 12:55 Paul Sporer: Hendriks has been INSANELY good, but if I just want the saves, I gotta go for the guy on the better team and that’s still Osuna. If it isn’t strictly a saves play and you’re looking complete package with the ratios & Ks, then I lean Hendriks 12:55 The Final Boss: How do you think widely available Statcast will affect the fantasy offseason? Will guys like JD Davis and Gio Urshela balloon in value? 12:56 Paul Sporer: They’re gonna balloon in value bc of how they performed, not so much just bc of anything StatCast-related. I think the SC data has boosted guys here and there, but I can’t recall many scenarios where someone was boosted solely due to SC data without any performance behind it 12:57 Tony: Could you imagine a scenario where someone won Rookie of the Year twice? Like what if there were no obvious candidates, then the top pitching prospect comes up on August 15th and finishes with 7 GS, 49 IP, 2.00 ERA, 2.5 WAR (maybe helping get his team to the playoffs)… he’d be under the IP & days on roster limit, so wouldn’t he be considered a rookie the next year, too? 12:57 Paul Sporer: I guess there is a scenario where it COULD happen. Gregg Jeffries finished top 6 twice: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeffegr01.shtml 12:59 Coming up short: Who you like best: Tim Anderson or Jorge Polanco? Obp league. 1:02 Paul Sporer: I’m a Polanco guy if needs are equal. If you need the speed, gotta go TA 1:02 Hector Boyardee: What do you make of Josh Rojas? Is Arizona’s player identification better than Houston’s? Does he have a future in MLB? Who would you say he profiles as? I’ve heard Carlos Beltran but that seems to be a stretch. 1:04 Paul Sporer: Certainly don’t think ARI’s player ID > HOU’s. Houston knows what they’re giving when they make deals. Rojas has a future and could be one of those guys who consistently produces beyond what his tools would suggest. He won’t be anywhere near Beltran, IMO 1:05 Scared: I traded Will Smith (RP) and Paddack last week for Scherzer. My other closers were Doolittle, Hader, Oberg, and Melancon. Should I be ecstatic AND terrified? 1:06 Paul Sporer: I imagine you’re going for it thinking you have closers to cover Smith while Paddack will face an IP limit and Scherzer is due back so I totally understand the thinking. You should be relatively happy… of course we need to see Max back out there dominating 1:06 Jim Leyland Palmer: Paul, is there any realistic free agent bat you could see the Tigers pursuing this winter? They have money, and the pitching will be here to stay next year 1:07 Paul Sporer: It’s gonna be small plug-in moves still for them. They’re obviously still AT LEAST 2 years from even thinking they can do anything of note (meaning like 75+ Ws) and that’s if all the pitching clicks… more likely 3 years so they should just make small FA moves, trade Boyd, and continue their development plan 1:07 Jason: Who is more valuable in July 2020? Luis Urias, Isan Diaz, or Nick Madrigal? 1:07 Paul Sporer: Urias 1:07 Gimme a Reason to Believe: Regardless of one’s personal like or dislike of Bryce, Hot Bryce is fun Bryce!! His post-GS dash around the bases was filled me with joy. Yay Baseball Moments like those! 1:07 Paul Sporer: I f’n loved it. I’m also a Bryce fan, though, but I hear you, even the haters gotta dig the majestic HRs like last night’s 1:08 Rocco: Who are the next Tauchmann’s and Punisher’s on the waiver wire to nab right now? 1:08 Paul Sporer: I wish I knew that so I could win my leagues! But perhaps the aforementioned Josh Rojas is someone who could become a fantasy standout as he gains more playing time 1:08 Miggy? : Hi Paul. I’m struggling at first. Is miggy still a good target in obp league? Would cut Brett Gardner. 1:11 Paul Sporer: I guess if you need the OBP from 1B instead of OF since Gardner’s is pretty similar 1:11 Rocky: Is Daniel Murphy cooked? Assuming the only opportunity cost is devoting a roster spot, is he worth keeping RoS and/or next year? 1:13 Paul Sporer: He was awesome in Jun/Jul, but then has cratered in Aug. I’m fine cutting in shallower leagues and prob won’t be going for him next year. 1:13 AJ: Which 2b/OF do you like best ROS in fgpts: VanMeter, Rojas, or Happ? 1:13 Paul Sporer: I like em as this order: JVM, Happ, Rojas (Rojas could leap Happ if he takes a full-time role) 1:13 Trent: Pick one to start today: Eloy Jimenez versus the Angels, or Christian Vasquez versus the Orioles? 1:15 Paul Sporer: I’ll go Eloy, but it’s hilariously super close 1:15 Will G: Aaron Nola or Luis Castillo rest of the way? 1:15 Paul Sporer: I’d scan the schedules and go with that bc talent-wise, they’re too close to really separate 1:15 Nick: Once everyone is healthy, I’ll have an infield roster crunch of Hiura, Lowe, Mondesi, and L. Gurriel. Which two of those four would you hang onto ROS? 1:15 Paul Sporer: Mondesi, Hiura 1:15 bleepbloop: Who do you prefer long term for 10tm h2h dynasty with OPS. JD Davis or Franmil? 1:16 Paul Sporer: Davis due to positional flexibility 1:16 Devin: Should I hold onto Luis Robert or move on? 1:17 Paul Sporer: I’m fine moving on if you need the roster spot as I don’t think he’s up before Sept. at this pt (if at all) 1:17 Jerry: With Ivan Nova’s recent hot stretch, is he worth picking up? 1:21 Paul Sporer: Man oh man, I dunno. He’s been INSANE (.49 ERA, .70 WHIP in 5 starts), but I just don’t know how it’s going to last espec. at MIN & v. TEX next week. I’m willing to let someone else roll these dice 1:21 Guest: Paul on Most High! Quinn of Phils is rounding into a solid player, lowering K’s, hitting some taters, and stealing bases. Is he a mirage? Is he someone who can be special? 1:22 Paul Sporer: Longtime Quinn fan but he seems to only start v. LHP so upside is a bit limited right now 1:23 gary mack: Joe Ross – something there or nah? 1:24 Paul Sporer: Yeah I think so. New curve is aiding his success. Has some K upside over what we’ve seen given an 11% SwStr during this run. 1:24 broken bat: Is Boyd last years Pivetta or Musgrove? A 2 pitch pitcher; Giving up bombs after great April. I cant share all the love. Your thoughts? 1:26 Paul Sporer: Oof, the Pivetta comp is eerily accurate. I think Musgrove has more than 2 pitches, but that’s ancillary to the point. This HR barrage from Boyd has been brutal. 1:26 Trout Cannons: Will Smith or Carson Kelly 2020 and beyond? 1:26 Paul Sporer: I lean Smith. Kelly is solid, though, and I’m glad he rebounded after a rough ’18. ARI bought low on Weaver & Kelly and if Weaver comes back healthy, that trade is going to be really sharp for them 1:27 Firstbase Wasteland: RE: Bad first base options. This is an OBP league. Miggy C, Hosmer, Desmond, CJ Cron, Lamb, Goodrum, Travis, Beaty are the highest ranked guys left. 1:27 Paul Sporer: Dang, that’s tough. A buncha the same stuff, you might just have to play schedules and work it that way instead of just relying on one guy 1:27 Terence: Is Pagan a better option for chasing saves than Shane Greene, Carlos Martinez, or Mark Melancon? 1:28 Paul Sporer: Yes I think so 1:28 Trout Cannons: Is Kyle Tucker a real baseball player, or just a made up fangraphs page? 1:28 Paul Sporer: Saw him live last night, real player! 1:28 joe: can we talk about the season Carlos Santana is having? 1:29 Paul Sporer: Yesssss, what an insane season! I loove what he’s doing at age-33. He’s always been an OBP god, but the pwr and AVG have been fire 1:29 cavebird: For next week, who would you go with Fried (@Mets (Wheeler)) or Pineda (v.CWS (Detweiler))? (5×5, standard cats, need everything, especially wins). Thanks! 1:30 Paul Sporer: I think I’m going Pineda with the W need being so high. Mets >>> White Sox so that’s the deciding factor 1:30 baseballdude: felipe vazquez is dominant but never gets save opportunities and taylor rogers is unpredictable and may be in a committee. should i drop one or both for either hansel robles and/or oberg? 1:32 Paul Sporer: Can’t drop Vazquez. I know it’s super frustrating but it can flip on a dime and he can have a 4-save week. Too good to cut. I could Rogers for Robles or Oberg, though. Oberg has a series v. MIA at home but then a road trip so now might be a good time to scoop to avoid Coors craziness 1:32 Eloy: Do you expect much of a turnaround for eloy ros? My future faith is high, but… 1:32 Eloy: Thanks for all the chats and pods and content! 1:33 Paul Sporer: I’m not *expecting* a major surge ROS, no. I think he’ll continue to have solid power with a chance at going off, but I’m looking more to 2020 and beyond for his excellence 1:33 baseballdude: bo bichette good to start at UTIL ROS in a H2H points league? 1:33 Paul Sporer: I think so, yes 1:33 Squid Vicious: Kluber’s coming back soon! Would you start him right out the gate, or wait a start or two? 1:34 Paul Sporer: I’m going with him from the jump 1:34 CubFan: Thoughts on Aaron Sanchez ros/2020? I’ve got him for $5 in 12 team AL only 5×5 keeper league. Thinking $5 might be worth keeping next year, blisters and all. 1:34 Paul Sporer: Ya $5 works in AL Only. He’s not going to become Gerrit Cole or anything, but I do think Houston will maximize him and an offseason to work with him intrigues me for 2020 1:35 Chris: Is MadBum back on track to being at least very good ROS / in the next few years, or do you still have serious concerns? 1:35 Paul Sporer: I was actually pretty in on him as far as the industry goes coming into this year, but I have to see where he lands before committing for 2020 1:35 Ed: pick one for next week: Jon Gray @ARI, Zac Gallen @MIL, or Eduardo Rodriguez @SD 1:38 Paul Sporer: I only get one?? I guess Gray on the road. I rank them in the order you list em, even with Gallen facing Milwaukee 1:38 Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!