Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 27th, 2018

Paul Sporer: Yooooo!!! Starting a little early today. Gotta keep it to about 90 mins, so let’s get goin!

Lone: Keep the faith with Domingo Santana in 10-team now that Thames is out?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. You made it this far with the clustered OF, now is his time to shine

Chris: Is this Lorenzo Cain’s career year?

Paul Sporer: Maybe! I love that he’s already got 5 SB, that was my favorite thing about him going to Milwaukee

GGGarth: Continue to hold Luis Castillo in 10-team?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m riding out at least another couple starts in all formats

Greg: Which side would you take here: Charlie Morton and Shin Soo-Choo for Eugenio Suarez and Mike Clevinger.

Paul Sporer: Seems pretty fair, but I lean Morton/Choo

Pollo: Have you defeated the weed whackers yet?

Paul Sporer: Kyle finally left

Luis Castillo : Jeff Zimmerman posted a chart showing my dip in FB velo from 97.5 to 95.2. Is this concerning to you or am I a buy low candidate?

Paul Sporer: It’s not insignificant, but he just hasn’t looked like someone who is lost to me when I watch him. Struggling and often running into a tough inning, but not someone who I see as a total mess

Not Chris: Traded Corbin for Bregman. How’d I do?

Paul Sporer: Hell yeah, did well!

Matt: How would you attack a FA add limit of 5 per week, esp with the roster churning early in the season and the desire to stream pitchers?

Paul Sporer: That’s what I have my in H2H and I usually do at least 3 pit to stream/2 hit to cover some Mon/Thu off days, but usually aim for 4/1

Joey: Who do you like more both for the rest of this season and as a keeper? Rd 6 Bregman or Rd 7 Albies?

Paul Sporer: I just don’t see a major difference between, so I’ll save the extra round and go Albies

Ted: Where do you have Pivetta ranked among SPs these days?

Paul Sporer: Top 50 for sure (I’ll be doing an SP ranking update next week) https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/march-composite-rankings-starting-pi…

John: Hey paul recently started following you on twitter and enjoy your feed. Are you in favor of robo umps? I am but I just don’t know how I feel about it, just hate seeing umps expand the zone on 3-0 and make game deciding calls that are incorrect.

Paul Sporer: Thanks and welcome! I’m not against it. I would like to see some long-term implementation at the minors or college level beforehand to try and work out the kinks and identify the unintended consequences, but I totally hear you on frustratingly awful calls and auto 3-0 strikes

Rick C: What do you do with Sanchez and Stroman at this ponit?  I have both on multiple teams and have started sitting them.

Paul Sporer: Aaron Sanchez? He’s been good and just had solid B2B quality starts at NYY and v. BOS. Stroman… I get sitting him

Mookie: Yonder or Miguel Andujar for my 10-ream CI?

Paul Sporer: Alonso, but I think it’s close enough to lean personal preference.

James: How much should we trust Grandal’s hot start? Is he really going to be a top shelf Catcher ros or is now the time to sell him?

Paul Sporer: I was the Grandal homer this year – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/march-composite-rankings-catcher/ – so I dig the start … I’m just hoping this isn’t 2015 all over again w/the big start and impossibly bad finish where he had to be cut everywhere. The AVG will come down but I like the plate approach and he’s always had power so I’d stay the course w/him

Billy : Are you surprised by how underwhelming Jordan Hicks‘ peripherals are?

Paul Sporer: He’s just Exhibit 4,582,119 that velo doesn’t guarantee success. Still has a lot to learn. Currently reminding me of Mauricio Cabrera, who always had that electric velo but didn’t do much with it

Brendan: In a 12 team 6×6 OBP QS league I have a 3 man outfield of Hoskins, Pham, and Cruz. I have Conforto and recently acquired Gallo with OF eligibility. I DESPERATELY need a closer (only have Soria) and I am in a league where closers are impossible to find. What player would be able to net me a decent closer? Thank you very much

Paul Sporer: You gotta test your market because I really don’t know what they’ll yield so I can’t really give you names, but any of the five should return a solid closer ranging Hoskins/Pham at the high end definitely requiring a stud to Gallo/Conforto at the end of the list who should still net a top 15 closer. Bottom line is any one of the five should give you someone a significant clip better than Soria

Flustered: What to do with Chris Archer?

Paul Sporer: Gotta ride it out, not much you can do. I really wouldn’t bench him or even come close to cutting him

Elvin: Michael Taylor worth a grab even in 10-team?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. 9 SB already and a full on green light is an all format must

Tom A. Hawk: Thoughts on Braves prospect Jose Bautista?

Paul Sporer: LOL, rising stud! Better than this Acuña guy everyone’s been yapping about!!!!

Sono: Would you trade Albies for Rendon in 6×6 H2H with OPS as added category?

Paul Sporer: It’s certainly fair, but I wouldn’t do it

GOAT aka Ozzie Albies : 12 team 5×5:  Kluber and myself for Altuve and Manaea.   Team Ozzie FTW?

Paul Sporer: Ya, Klubot/Ozzie for me

Steve: Domingo or Dahl rest of season?

Loren: You like David Dahl ROS as a 10-team 5 OF play?

Paul Sporer: Domingo over Dahl; and yes he’s an all formats guy. His upside is too rich to let him sit on any wire

John: If kershaws FB velocity stays about 1 mph down how big of a difference do you think it makes? Maybe takes him from the elite 2.2 fip range to a 2.6-2.8?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really correlate velo to FIP, but he’s down nearly 2 mph from 92.7 to 91. If the velo dip isn’t related to any injury or anything then I think he can definitely still be great – and he has thus far – but he has come back to the pack to where he can be slotted anywhere the top 4 studs

Erik: Should I try to move Brandon Belt for Carlos Santana? Which side would have to add value to make it fair?

Paul Sporer: I’m in on that, though 1-for-1s for the same position can be tough because it kinda makes ppl think “why does he want my guy performing much worse at the same position?” so maybe do a 2-for-2 w/similarly valued Ps on the other end

Erik: How happy should I be that I spent 20% of my FAAB budget on Mac Williamson? 18-team dynasty league.

Paul Sporer: He was our biggest target in NFBC Main this past weekend so I’m on the Mac train. Hope his neck OK after that spill into the wall, but I really like the pop

Watty: ROS – Which shade of Gray do you prefer?  Sonny or Jon?

Paul Sporer: Jon… just wasn’t in on Sonny at all this year

gyroball: Hey Paul, is it safe to drop Stroman or just stream him? He came at a reasonable draft pick but he’s just been bad despite the resurgent Jays team around him.

Paul Sporer: Need team count and league context

Joe Dirt: 10tm H2H keep forever 6×6 w/ obp,slg & QS,K/9 trade Bumgarner for Albies or Moncada? SPs have been best in league Kluber, Sev, Nola, Corbin, McCullers. 2B is Happ/Nunez.

Paul Sporer: I’d do it for Albies

Steve: Drop Kimberly to pick up Villar for 2nd?

Paul Sporer: I imagine that’s Kingery… seems like a neutral move

Gibson: Benintendi for Carlos Santana and Adam Eaton?

Paul Sporer: Gimme the duo

MIcah: Jon Schoop for Yoan Moncada 10-team challenge trade:  who you got?

Paul Sporer: Moncada

High 5 Ghost: What’s up Paul!? Thanks for the chat!

I mostly faded OF and now have Polanco, J Martinez, Haniger, and Hicks. Are any of these guys droppable for Dahl?
6×6 head to head league that counts BB.

Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I like Dahl as I mentioned earlier, but I can’t really get rid of any of those guys for him right now

Gist: Sean Manaea gonna remain 10-team relevant?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes

Me, me, pick ME!: Albies only has 1 SB and doesn’t walk much – do I straight waive him or try to trade for someone like Ian Kennedy?

Paul Sporer: lolz

Derek: Is it time to cut LoMo?  I could really use the roster spot.  I’ve been streaming 1B (tomorrow’s starter will be Valencia!)..  Other streamers are Davidson (on waivers now), Mauer, Healy and Pearce.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I understand if you’re just streaming and can’t wait for him to turn around, but he will get better. I just can’t see him keeping a .140 BABIP and 5% HR/FB. Maybe you keep streaming and find your way back to him as he heats up. I can’t argue cutting him right now

Javy B: Is my breakout for real? What do you expect final numbers to look like, and where do you see him going in next years drafts?

Paul Sporer: Waaaaaaaaaaay too early assess his 2019 draft slot, but it’s hard to deny his skills and we could definitely see the breakout coming. I’m a little suspect on his new K% rate as his swinging strike and chase rates are essentially the same. He can do 30 HR/10 SB even if he falls back to last year’s slash  line

Khaaan: Did you ever go by the nickname Ball Scorer?

Paul Sporer: My entire life… that’s my actual name. Nickname is Paul Sporer

Bryan: Is Matt Carpenter a buy low in an OBP league or do you think he’s on the down side?

Paul Sporer: Collette got me super scared about Carp’s shoulder so I just laid off in drafts. He won’t be THIS bad, but I’m not buying some big surge

Jake Junis Priest: Haven’t listened to yesterday’s POD yet, but how much of it is about Kyle Gibson’s 10Ks on everybody’s bench?

Paul Sporer: Or waiver wire…

andrew: Should I be at all nervous about owning Taillon and to a lesser extent Godley.

Paul Sporer: B2B duds by Taillon, but I haven’t seen anything suggesting injury so I’m not panicking right now. Not at all worried about Godley

Jake Junis Priest: Finally figured out what DRAKE was talking about. “Turn the 02 into the 03” means trading Choo for Conforto.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think I get it, but I like it!

Funkhouser: Hi Paul!

Paul Sporer: Hi Funkhouser!

Vince Wagner: To what extent can we expect early season drops in FB velo rebound?

Paul Sporer: it’s really a case-by-case, but most guys add velo as the season wears on and globally, it peaks in August so I wouldn’t automatically worry about velo laggards right now

Oddball Herrera: Buying Soroka as a difference maker in 12 teamers by the end of May?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, there’s certainly a possibility, but I’d put it at like 20% chance

Biff: Is Teoscar this year’s Domingo Santana?

Paul Sporer: Let’s hope! Looove Teoscar, definitely hoping he gets the playing time and goes off all year

Vacuum: David Dahl stick when Parra gets back?

Paul Sporer: He’s gotta stick over McMahon, right?

Steve: This weekend Bour for 3 games or Soler for 4 in UT spot?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Bour since Soler has 3 righties and hasn’t done anything v. them

Funkhouser: Let’s try again, Hi Paul! Corbin Manaea and Porcello have come on strong in my rotation and have me thinking about trading Kershaw to pad my offense. Would you rather get back Mookie for him or Stanton and a replacement arm, someone like Gausman?

Paul Sporer: So Mookie straight up or Stanton/Gaus? I think I gotta go Stanton/Gaus

Vacuum: Willie Calhoun vs. Nick Castellanos ROS (from Willie’s call up date)

Paul Sporer: Dig Calhoun, but still Casty

Chris Smith: Any concerns about Chris Taylor yet (no SB, poor avg so far) or just chalk it up to SSS for now?

Paul Sporer: Keeping a close eye, but not running away from him

Bryan: Would you deal Corbin for Edwin? 10-team dynasty, trying to win now. Offense needs help.

Paul Sporer: Yes I would

Gest: Have you noticed that Kurt Suzuki has been one of the better hitters over the last 365 days? What is happening? Seriously, is he doing something different?

Paul Sporer: LOL yes!!! I was just telling my friend the other day that I don’t know what to make of Suzuki-as-a-good-player but he’s been fantastic. He switched it and joined the flyball revolution with a 46% FB rate since last yr. He’s not Oakland Suzuki

Pig Tiger: Should I be trying to sell Didi as much as I can? Or is he for real? (I understand he’s not 60-HR real but I mean elite.)

Paul Sporer: If you can get a top 3 round guy, I’d be selling

Billy : Got offered Trout for my Aaron Judge. Should I accept? I’m ok but not great in SB’s ( Trea Turner, Pham, Cain and Dozier).

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m taking that

Guest: how tall are you? Eno called you a tall drink of water, so I’m wondering what the cutoff is.

Paul Sporer: 6’5… I’m built like Sale, Carl Edwards, and Taylor Swift (she’s shorter than us, but same general build)

Pine Needles: How do you feel about chatting H2H with Eno right now?

Paul Sporer: Who?

Guest: wait and see if Shohei gets his groove back, or a must-start every time out?

Paul Sporer: Must start for me. I’m not sitting him anywhere

Lorren: Christian Villanueva gonna remain 10-team relevant?

Paul Sporer: Yes as long as the AVG doesn’t completely plummet bc I think there’s 30 HR pop

Guest: Kelvin Herrera O/U 20 saves for the season?

Paul Sporer: Over!

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Tim Anderson has quadrupled his 2017 walk rate… which is less impressive than it sounds because his 2017 walk rate was 2%. Think his improved approach is sustainable? What’s his SB upside?

Paul Sporer: Haha, it’s still pretty nice. If he can maintain 6%+, it really helps his SB upside

Lemar: Who would you rather have in 10 team mixed? Carp, Yonder, Chapman or Fowler

Paul Sporer: Chapman

Josh’s Brother Bill: I think I told you that my brother is doing well with the crew. I hope you’re still enjoying my new HBO show

Paul Sporer: He’s been amazing and I dig your show!

Kyle: Trade Conforto for Luis Castillo in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: As much as I love Castillo, I gotta lean hitter in a close 1-for-1 for dynasty

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Paul your early!!

Paul Sporer: I know, I know! Early today and probably changing my weekly time soon… stay tuned! … (you’re*)

Matt: What do you make of Jameson taillon’s last two starts?

Paul Sporer: Awful, but I’m not freaking out yet

Mike: Is it time to cut bait on Junis in shallow 10-12 team leagues?

Paul Sporer: ya that’s fine. He’s a HR machine right now … and was last year, too (1.4)

Lewis Brinson: What’s wrong with me???

Paul Sporer: Swings way too much, but still just 144 career PA so it’s still quite early to judge him

45Blows Billygoats: Chase Anderson or Sean Manaea?

Paul Sporer: Manaea

o’HOOLIGAN’S: Jose Martinez or Teoscar Hernandez rest of season in 5×5 roto league?

Paul Sporer: Close, but Teoscar

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll. Back next week and I might switch to Thursdays which would allow longer chats more often so stay tuned! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer) …. enjoy Avengers if you’re seeing it this weekend!